Fiddler on the Roof Mafia

[novaselinenever]

Mac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party

I'm interested in these reads, NVN. You list them both as potentially being either mafia or 3rd party. what stands out about these two, and which do you think is more likely to be mafia, and which is more likely to be 3rd party?

I've been following their quarrel since the beginning of the game. There isn't a lot of substance behind it, it just felt like two scum going at each other and trying to gain Town credits by lynching a scum.
I'm leaning towards Macdougall being the Mafia and Marmot being the 3rd Party. I didn't like how he put his vote on Marmot early D1. His whole reasoning was based on the fact that he usually find Mafia that are missed by most people. He even admitted that Marmot's content read Town but his scum read was a gut feeling lol.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm kind of hoping that the independent role doesn't have to die for a civilian win. It looks scary, but that doesn't mean anything. Without knowledge of its abilities and to this point no extra kills, it'd be pretty difficult to figure out who that is. If they have little or no kill protection of their own then that could point toward town reads who are lower in content (avoiding night kill attention), and names like FZ. or Dyslexicon could fit that description. Low effort non-town reads are also applicable (Marmot, DrWilgy, novaselinenever).

Perhaps Kyle reacted so strongly to my early fake tell because I threatened his imperative need for survival.

This post is player salad.

Anyway, these may be things to consider if we lynch three mafia members and the game doesn't end, or if we encounter conclusive evidence that bad things are happening from a non-mafia source.

[Marmot]

Huh. Sudden burst of content from NVN heavily pushing an LC lynch. Very odd.

I'm feeling pretty confident in an LC lynch at the moment and voting accordingly.

Just clearing my name. Sloonei asked to hear from me, I delivered. But it's all I have so far.

For some reason I believe this. I'm gullible.

I feel similarly.

A follow-up from Long Con would help this read.

[Sloonei]

Mac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party

I'm interested in these reads, NVN. You list them both as potentially being either mafia or 3rd party. what stands out about these two, and which do you think is more likely to be mafia, and which is more likely to be 3rd party?

I've been following their quarrel since the beginning of the game. There isn't a lot of substance behind it, it just felt like two scum going at each other and trying to gain Town credits by lynching a scum.

Wouldn't this imply a teammate relationship?

I'm leaning towards Macdougall being the Mafia and Marmot being the 3rd Party. I didn't like how he put his vote on Marmot early D1. His whole reasoning was based on the fact that he usually find Mafia that are missed by most people. He even admitted that Marmot's content read Town but his scum read was a gut feeling lol.

I don't think I follow. This is just a list of things Mac has said. I don't know why any of it makes him bad.

[FZ.]

Epi, why are you voting for Wilgy? Why are you not voting for LC?

[FZ.]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

After Vocaroo 2 (mafia Wilgy made 2 posts in five day phases), I'm not sure they have a choice.

[Sloonei]

I think it's interesting that there's been so much fringe attention paid to Marmot and Mac today. LC is the consensus top suspect, Daisy and NVN have received a good deal of scrutiny, and I've been loudly hanging onto my Kyle thing. But nearly all of the focus once you get past those names has been on that M&M pairing. The two of them have been pointing at each other since last night, Long Con came in pushing Mac as his top suspect, and NVN is pushing the two of them as suspects after Long Con. It's too soon to know what to make of it exactly, but it's something I want to make note of now so it can be looked into later on when we have more solid information to work with.

[Sloonei]

Epi, why are you voting for Wilgy? Why are you not voting for LC?

I think he just wanted to give LC some space so he's not sitting there with all the votes on him all day. I appreciate the mindset. LC hasn't done much with his breath today when he's been here.
If LC is town, who should we look at next?

[Epignosis]

Epi, why are you voting for Wilgy? Why are you not voting for LC?

LC has four votes. He doesn't need mine. And it's early. Burying LC with plenty of hours left in the Day doesn't give him any room to go after mafia if he is indeed civilian, but instead only incentivizes defense mode.

[Kylemii]

Perhaps Kyle reacted so strongly to my early fake tell because I threatened his imperative need for survival.

I don't ever like to die, but there are times where I am more okay with dying than others.

1. getting lynched for playing a weak civ game: encourages me to try harder next time
2. getting night killed for playing too strong of a civ game: encourages me to dial it back a bit next time
3. getting lynched for any reason, including as part of process of elimination, when the mafia is already at enough of a deficit that the game is mostly won.

your thing was neither of those

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think for some or many of us, Mac vaulted from being a less conclusive read to a solid civilian read after the Spacedaisy lynch when he began to investigate potential connections and narrow down possible relationships. Does anyone read him as a civilian for a reason other than this, and do we feel that this is sufficient reason for him to have enjoyed such a position of comfort?

[Sloonei]

I think for some or many of us, Mac vaulted from being a less conclusive read to a solid civilian read after the Spacedaisy lynch when he began to investigate potential connections and narrow down possible relationships. Does anyone read him as a civilian for a reason other than this, and do we feel that this is sufficient reason for him to have enjoyed such a position of comfort?

Outside of that, I've had a general sense that this is a focused and committed town Macdougall. I can follow his thoughts, even when they're incomplete. His probes have been wide-ranging, and I don't feel like there was much reason to believe in a partnership between him and LoRab, though I didn't ISO him for that information.
If I have doubts about him, it's actually because of his Night 1 analysis. It doesn't seem like he's done a lot with that work since he posted it to the thread.

[Epignosis]

I think for some or many of us, Mac vaulted from being a less conclusive read to a solid civilian read after the Spacedaisy lynch when he began to investigate potential connections and narrow down possible relationships. Does anyone read him as a civilian for a reason other than this, and do we feel that this is sufficient reason for him to have enjoyed such a position of comfort?

The chart didn't mean anything to me either way (and when I glanced at it, it didn't look consistent to me, but I didn't study it long). My perspective of MacDougall is influenced positively because of how closely some of his posts echoed my own mindset.

[FZ.]

I think for some or many of us, Mac vaulted from being a less conclusive read to a solid civilian read after the Spacedaisy lynch when he began to investigate potential connections and narrow down possible relationships. Does anyone read him as a civilian for a reason other than this, and do we feel that this is sufficient reason for him to have enjoyed such a position of comfort?

For me it's the fact that he voted for LC who I really believe is a baddie. It's not impossible that he and LC, if both mafia, discussed things and decided this is what they need to do, and like I think I've said at some point in the game, I remember a game where he was the most helpful I've seen him and ended up being bad. But for the moment, I think he deserves the credit. If we lynch the person we think is bad and get a result one way or the other, we'll figure out what to do next

[Sloonei]

Of my strong town reads, mac is the easiest to tinfoil.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll make him a priority for an interactive check later.

[Sloonei]

Of my strong town reads, mac is the easiest to tinfoil.

But he's still a strong town read.

[DrWilgy]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

After Vocaroo 2 (mafia Wilgy made 2 posts in five day phases), I'm not sure they have a choice.

Yup. I do my own thing.

What's up people? Last thing I saw was LoRab be bad and die.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

After Vocaroo 2 (mafia Wilgy made 2 posts in five day phases), I'm not sure they have a choice.

Yup. I do my own thing.

What's up people? Last thing I saw was LoRab be bad and die.

Yep, that happened. How's it going, Wilgy? Everything jolly? Happen to think anything of anyone's play in this thing?

[DrWilgy]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

After Vocaroo 2 (mafia Wilgy made 2 posts in five day phases), I'm not sure they have a choice.

Yup. I do my own thing.

What's up people? Last thing I saw was LoRab be bad and die.

Yep, that happened. How's it going, Wilgy? Everything jolly? Happen to think anything of anyone's play in this thing?

Not much, my last mindset had me torn between Kyle and Sloonbread.

Now that we know LoRab was bad, there more info to play with, but I haven't even read what started her wagon.

[Sloonei]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

After Vocaroo 2 (mafia Wilgy made 2 posts in five day phases), I'm not sure they have a choice.

Yup. I do my own thing.

What's up people? Last thing I saw was LoRab be bad and die.

Yep, that happened. How's it going, Wilgy? Everything jolly? Happen to think anything of anyone's play in this thing?

Not much, my last mindset had me torn between Kyle and Sloonbread.

Now that we know LoRab was bad, there more info to play with, but I haven't even read what started her wagon.

Sloonbeard being unstoppable started her wagon.

[MacDougall]

To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

Got any priority suspects right now other than Marmot?

[Sloonei]

To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

Do you think marmot/lorab is a compelling pairing?

[MacDougall]

To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

Got any priority suspects right now other than Marmot?

I wouldn't call them priority but I am still orange at best on Long Con, nutella and Nova. I am alright with this LC lynch.

To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

Do you think marmot/lorab is a compelling pairing?

I wouldn't say compelling but they are compatible.

[Sloonei]

I don't think nutella and lorab are probable teammates. Nutella was the first person to join the nutella wagon after me, and LoRab's behavior toward nutella has the appearance of buddying/pocketing.

[MacDougall]

I don't think nutella and lorab are probable teammates. Nutella was the first person to join the nutella wagon after me, and LoRab's behavior toward nutella has the appearance of buddying/pocketing.

Rule her out then. LC and Marmot compatible?

[Marmot]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

Do mafia teams do this?

[Sloonei]

I don't think nutella and lorab are probable teammates. Nutella was the first person to join the nutella wagon after me, and LoRab's behavior toward nutella has the appearance of buddying/pocketing.

Rule her out then. LC and Marmot compatible?

I haven't looked into it. Nothing jumps out immediately in my memory one way or the ither.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

LoRab and MacDougall

LoRab didn't mention Mac.

Spoiler: show

I generally read Lorab wrong and I am reading her town so take that fwiw.

I generally read Lorab wrong and I am reading her town so take that fwiw.

On what basis?

Her posts feel similar to posts I vaguely recall from civ games she was in.

Decent serving of biscuits with WIFOM gravy.


LoRab is in the second-lowest tier of a Day 1 rainbow.

That represents a fall from the prior vague civilian read. Mac should talk about what changed.

Green in the "might as well be absent" group later on Day 1.

This read is certainly all over the place so far.

Spoiler: show

I'm not seeing baddie LA. I also feel like there was quite the bandwagon going on earlier against her, although it seems to have moved off.

I'm going to vote Epi for now. I'm not feeling great and may fall asleep on the keyboard, so want to be sure to not forget to vote. He's really the only one I'm noticing who is playing their baddie game.

I hope you are still awake because I'd really enjoy some elaboration on the first sentence here. The second sentence is a rather mundane observation that doesn't really elaborate on the comment. If you are not seeing baddie nutella, then I imagine you would be able to describe what baddie nutella is to us and then show us in what way she is different now, and would appreciate that.

Decent prod. I asked her a very similar question about her vague mafia read on Epignosis.


Still green in the next "might as well be absent" group on Day 1.

Okay.

Same place after Daisy lynch, but with a lighter shade of green.

Okay.

Prodded Epi about his call to deal with LoRab and FZ who'd voted for him and went to sleep.

He said these two names seemed "rather random". That's not my favorite thing, because Epi's purpose for focusing on the two of them is clearly stated in the post being addressed. Those are the two who voted Epignosis on Day 1 and then bailed from the thread for sleepytime. That's not a random selection.

His teammate interaction things on Night 1 show most players as "null" next to LoRab. Exceptions: JJJ (unlikely) and Kyle (possible). I can't remember if he pursued Kyle post-LoRab lynch. I'll look after this.

Spoiler: show

Your red skittles could be a team. Sloonei what's your stance on dizzy and Lorab?

The first sentence was in response to speedchuck, who'd included LoRab as a red skittle along with Dyslexicon and Sloonei. So he followed that up with a prod of Sloonei about LoRab. It's fair. I need to see what he did with this to judge.

-- It appears he didn't go with it. His next post indicates that he doesn't think Sloonei fits as a teammate of anyone else.

==========

After LoRab's lynch

Spoiler: show

Anyway it's done

https://screencast.com/t/mOEFHqlSOri

LoRab/Kyle is listed as a "possible" pairing. Care to elaborate?

Tomorrow I will try to find it

Sloonei noted the same thing I did and asked about it. Mac pledged to dig. He dug:

Spoiler: show

On analysis I think Kyle's drunk EOD looks pretty bad. Given I am a known drunkard I have good insight here.

I moved to nutella for the moment, I'm not 100% certain I want to stay there but my gut just got thrown for a loop and her moving to Jay is concerning to me.

I recommend looking at LoRab quickly if you have time.

Tell me about lorab

This was a drunk Kyle exhibiting what is referred to as dutch courage.

He ultimately voted for Daisy on his own. I wouldn't be surprised if his drunk mind thought he was doing a great job distancing them both with this passage.

He didn't care for Kyle's drunk chatter. It must be noted that this incident occurred well after Mac had originally drawn a "possible" connection between LoRab and Kyle, so this can't have been the original inspiration for that. I see no further expansion, so this has not been addressed.

~~~

Conclusion -- Mac's early read on LoRab was a bit of a roller coaster. It isn't clear why, so I think that needs to be cleared up. That on its own power represents one of the more significant connections any player in this game has to LoRab regardless of whether it's interpreted to be good or bad, and it should be considered an important point of discussion. He's a valid tinfoil prospect.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

Do mafia teams do this?

I do often try to motivate my quietest teammates into action. They still have to care though, which is out of my hands. I'd expect most of the competitive/loudmouth types to be like that. LoRab not so much.

[FZ.]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

Do mafia teams do this?

I would pm him like crazy to try and get him to be more active. Heck, if I were mafia and my win depended on a player who is just barely posting to not get any reads on him, I wouldn't want that win. But if he's just going to get himself lynched because of not posting, and that would cause his team to lose a power, that's even more reason to call him out

[FZ.]

By the way, JJJ, I'm as civvie as they get. Not a third fraction. I hope eliminating the mafia is going to be enough. I had a feeling this was going to be something like finding Lazar and getting him killed for the third fraction to be able to win, or something of the sort, because of the "revenge" part. I hope it doesn't mean they will revenge everyone

[MacDougall]

Jimmy the rainbow in which I had LoRab as in the second lowest tier was speedchucks that I copied.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If there's one thing working in Mac's favor given that interactive analysis, it's that he has compiled over 200 posts and LoRab never mentioned him once. I get the impression that most aafia veterans like LoRab aren't going to ignore a highly active teammate's existence to that degree.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jimmy the rainbow in which I had LoRab as in the second lowest tier was speedchucks that I copied.

Oh, that explains a lot.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jimmy the rainbow in which I had LoRab as in the second lowest tier was speedchucks that I copied.

Oh, that explains a lot.

In this case the connection between Mac and LoRab is at least diminished from "Mac's read on her was all over the place" to "Mac read her as a civilian". It's still a connection, but not quite as noteworthy.

[FZ.]

Kyle, can you remind me who you think the rest of the baddies are?

[FZ.]

LC was one of the people who found something fishy about Kyle at the beginning of the game. For anyone playing on his team when he was bad, does he tend to accuse him team mates in early stages?

[MacDougall]

LC was one of the people who found something fishy about Kyle at the beginning of the game. For anyone playing on his team when he was bad, does he tend to accuse him team mates in early stages?

My first game with LC was a Mafia teammate and we went at each other on day 1 and I accidentally got him lynched iirc.

[FZ.]

LC was one of the people who found something fishy about Kyle at the beginning of the game. For anyone playing on his team when he was bad, does he tend to accuse him team mates in early stages?

My first game with LC was a Mafia teammate and we went at each other on day 1 and I accidentally got him lynched iirc.

Did you start it or him? He doesn't strike me as a player who would point fingers at a fellow mafia unless it is necessary. You on the other hand, do

[MacDougall]

LC was one of the people who found something fishy about Kyle at the beginning of the game. For anyone playing on his team when he was bad, does he tend to accuse him team mates in early stages?

My first game with LC was a Mafia teammate and we went at each other on day 1 and I accidentally got him lynched iirc.

Did you start it or him? He doesn't strike me as a player who would point fingers at a fellow mafia unless it is necessary. You on the other hand, do

I can't remember. It was at the start of Talking Heads if you want to look it up.

[FZ.]

LC was one of the people who found something fishy about Kyle at the beginning of the game. For anyone playing on his team when he was bad, does he tend to accuse him team mates in early stages?

My first game with LC was a Mafia teammate and we went at each other on day 1 and I accidentally got him lynched iirc.

Did you start it or him? He doesn't strike me as a player who would point fingers at a fellow mafia unless it is necessary. You on the other hand, do

I can't remember. It was at the start of Talking Heads if you want to look it up.

I'm too lazy

[JaggedJimmyJay]

LC was one of the people who found something fishy about Kyle at the beginning of the game. For anyone playing on his team when he was bad, does he tend to accuse him team mates in early stages?

My first game with LC was a Mafia teammate and we went at each other on day 1 and I accidentally got him lynched iirc.

Did you start it or him? He doesn't strike me as a player who would point fingers at a fellow mafia unless it is necessary. You on the other hand, do

I can't remember. It was at the start of Talking Heads if you want to look it up.

I'm too lazy

I'm not.

Long Con started it. I'm sure they talked about it in BTSC first though.

[FZ.]

Thanks jjj, so I was wrong. The fact that he voiced suspicion of Kyle means nothing

[MacDougall]

LC was one of the people who found something fishy about Kyle at the beginning of the game. For anyone playing on his team when he was bad, does he tend to accuse him team mates in early stages?

My first game with LC was a Mafia teammate and we went at each other on day 1 and I accidentally got him lynched iirc.

Did you start it or him? He doesn't strike me as a player who would point fingers at a fellow mafia unless it is necessary. You on the other hand, do

I can't remember. It was at the start of Talking Heads if you want to look it up.

I'm too lazy

I'm not.

Long Con started it. I'm sure they talked about it in BTSC first though.

Not from what I recall. It was impromptu and I remember trying to figure out how to deal with the fallout.

[FZ.]

I'm going to sleep. I hope nothing changes in terms of who gets lynched today. I think LC is the baddie, mostly by process of elimination and the way he's handled this entire game. I really hope we're not wrong about this, but I see no other better option

[MacDougall]

Thanks jjj, so I was wrong. The fact that he voiced suspicion of Kyle means nothing

You are convinced Kyle is Mafia?

[DrWilgy]

Sloonbeard being unstoppable started her wagon.

Well then good job Sloonbread. What prompted this wagon and what do you think of Kyle in light of this?