Outpost 31 {GAME OVER}

[DharmaHelper]

Well color me chuffed.

[DharmaHelper]

Aw shit no females left for me to torch

*Stares directly at the camera*

[DharmaHelper]

We haven't had a missed kill since N1 so Doc is in the clear I would think.

[juliets]

Aw shit no females left for me to torch

*Stares directly at the camera*

[dunya]

Aw shit no females left for me to torch

*Stares directly at the camera*

I love this exchange.

[ColinIsCool]

Sounds about right.

[Turnip Head]

Good luck today Dharma, no pressure

[DharmaHelper]

Anybody want to help me make this decision or nah

[Turnip Head]

I think you me and the doc are the only humies left. So torching Jack, DDL or INH should do the trick, preferably Jack

[speedchuck]

Aw shit no females left for me to torch

*Stares directly at the camera*

Stare into the camera and the camera stares back

[insertnamehere]

welp. I'm more than a little baffled about where to go now.

Gonna try and do some light ISO work later today on Jack, TH, and DDL. Jack's someone I've had some issues with previously, while TH and DDL are people I haven't really scrutinized in all that much depth.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Torch DDL or INH.

With Colin human and Wilgy probably human via only one missed kill and probably more than 2 baddies, either DH or TH ought to be scum.

The Colin kill is weird. Was he attacked for his reads or because scum wanted to confirm a partner?

[DharmaHelper]

Torch DDL or INH, but you think TH is scum?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’ve already given my reasons for why INH is bad.

Upon ISOing DDL, he doesn’t look that traditionally bad but this isn’t a traditional game. So forget interactive cause bad DDL wouldn’t know his partners. DDL has basically three important posts in terms of reads. 1) He calls Sprityo I’m not hunting 2) He gives a bunch of reads several days later 3) He says he feels Jack/INH are t/t but it’s hard to outright say that cause numbers. And that’s pretty much it.

In the end, I don’t see the townie drive to catch scum as much as the drive to survive. Like he was going to self vote to avoid Sprityo torching. Yesterday, he wondered why the game wasn’t over. His attitude is one of a sker, not a townie.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Torch DDL or INH, but you think TH is scum?

Depends on the numbers. Depends if I’m wrong on you or Wilgy.

Like with my scum number guess, he’s below the t/s line and should be scum. But he’s the first person below the line. Better to torch someone at the bottom of the list esp given I never call out the whole mafia correctly at lylo.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Or maybe there are only two things and my t/s line is in the wrong spot.

[DharmaHelper]

"When you've eliminated the impossible, whatever remains - however improbable, must be the truth" - Sherlock Holmes

[Jackofhearts2005]

"When you've eliminated the impossible, whatever remains - however improbable, must be the truth" - Sherlock Holmes

What if you have a lot of possible remaining scenarios?

[DharmaHelper]

"When you've eliminated the impossible, whatever remains - however improbable, must be the truth" - Sherlock Holmes

What if you have a lot of possible remaining scenarios?

- DharmaHelper

[Jackofhearts2005]

ISOing TH. He feels loose af. TH usually feels loose af. Is he loose af while scum? This, I do not know.

[Jackofhearts2005]

DDL's idea of self-voting to be spared from sprityo's smiting was cheeky enough to not raise alarm bells

But then he figured out self-voting wasn't allowed so he went with a random, which is not cheeky enough to not raise alarm bells

He's probably a Thing

I like this post, probably his first real accusation and I tend to agree. Frustratingly, it doesn’t separate him from DDL and him giving up this line of inquiry later (if he does) doesn’t mean teammate behavior cause a scum TH wouldn’t know if DDL was on his team probably.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jack seems quieter than usual so far, idk if it means anything

First post about his current top suspect. Posting to check for progression.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m not bad, I’m bad at Mafia.

God so relatable.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jackofhearts2005: A PowerPoint Presentation

I love the style and admittedly, I had given TH very little to work with here but the case is pretty bare bones.

So far the progression is “Joh hasn’t been around much does that mean anything?” -> “Joh hasn’t been around much/word choice read means he is probably bad.”

It’s stretchy but there was an assignment to case someone so it’s not necessarily a bad stretchy. Let’s see where the progression goes.

[Jackofhearts2005]

After all of todays events I still feel the most sure about my vote for jackypoo

No one's cased the turnip yet

I take that as a positive sign that I'm getting the next crack at the flamethrower

Now, Jack is top scumreadvwithout further discussion of Jack.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I didn't consider sprityo torching Mac specifically until Jack brought it up just now. That's an intriguing angle Mac's instincts are the stuff of folklore, they've written songs about it

Likes Jack’s (ultimately wrong) Sprityo case.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I mean right now I'm looking for thoughts on sprityo. I think Jack brought up a good point about a scum sprit abusing the general dislike of inactives as an excuse to torch Mac early.

Jack could get torched for playing on the fringes but I want to give him a little leash and see what he does with it

I've got a few town reads that won't likely face the napalm end of this thing

If there's another popular candidate I'll put some pressure on them, I might try to rattle Chuck's cage a bit

I skipped a post that’s similar to this one.

Now, Jack is nullish due to liking my Sprityo case. Going to give Jack a chance, as it were.

[Jackofhearts2005]

TH supports my Speedchuck case which is also ultimately wrong. Then comes in with this. Don’t know why he suspects me cause the main point (Jack is not pursuing suspects like I see townie Jack do) doesn’t really apply when my case on my suspect caused the last two lynches.

Voting jack for now but I'ma consider DH's analysis in the morning

Also, by now, TH has called out a lot of townreads (Eloh, Luna, Quin....one I forgot). Sker probably doesn’t fight against consensus like this, right?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Reason I'm voting Jack is cuz I felt like he half-assed yesterday by his own standards. I watched Jack hunt speedchuck down like a bloodhound in Mega Man. To see him sort of nonchalantly dispatch him here rings false. There was fire but no fuel

I choose to not respond to it at the time cause I didn’t see anyone really agreeing and figured I could persuade him if he got the flamethrower.

I questioned Speed but Speed’s answers were shrugs. Speed gave lots of explanation in MM. so I talked a lot about that. Here, Speed was just kinda “I didn’t think it could be lylo and you said you had a plan” which was not really believable. I said so. I got little back and in the end, Speed burned.

The key consideration is “Is this suspicion real?”

I tend to think “yes” because it makes sense, even if it’s wrong. TH has not jumped on easy trains. He’s townread suspicious people that turned out to be town.

Anyways speedchuck is gonna have to do a better job of convincing me that his thought process for voting Jack makes a lick of sense

Related question for TH: Did he?

[DharmaHelper]

Good work/crunch here Jack. Lot of solid points.

[Jackofhearts2005]

And then there’s 5 more posts that are basically “Jack is probably mafia” which kinda undermines the whole “townie mindset” thing.

TH, respond to me kk.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Good work/crunch here Jack. Lot of solid points.

If you’re scum, just torch me now. I’m sick of being on the plate of wolves who like to play with their food.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]DharmaHelper[/mention]

Name your scumteams if there are 2 things and if there are 3.

[DharmaHelper]

@DharmaHelper

Name your scumteams if there are 2 things and if there are 3.

If there are 2? DDL/TH

If there are 3? DDL/TH/Wilgy

[DharmaHelper]

Townclear on INH and Jack is where I'm going w/ that

[Turnip Head]

And then there’s 5 more posts that are basically “Jack is probably mafia” which kinda undermines the whole “townie mindset” thing.

TH, respond to me kk.

Thank you for the mountain of notifications And thanks for taking the time to case me instead of "I can't read TH so I won't even bother", which is what I usually get tbh.

I admit I've tunneled you the last few phases but part of that is because I wanted to see you interact with my suspicion of you, which you hadn't really done. My read on you hasn't developed much because you haven't developed much. I've seen you town hard in a few games and this hadn't looked much like that to me.

[Turnip Head]

Are we all sort of in agreement about DDL? My PoE lands on him but I haven't delved into his ISO

[Jackofhearts2005]

@DharmaHelper

Name your scumteams if there are 2 things and if there are 3.

If there are 2? DDL/TH

If there are 3? DDL/TH/Wilgy

That’s pretty unexpected.

Why do you think INH is town?

[Jackofhearts2005]

And then there’s 5 more posts that are basically “Jack is probably mafia” which kinda undermines the whole “townie mindset” thing.

TH, respond to me kk.

Thank you for the mountain of notifications And thanks for taking the time to case me instead of "I can't read TH so I won't even bother", which is what I usually get tbh.

I admit I've tunneled you the last few phases but part of that is because I wanted to see you interact with my suspicion of you, which you hadn't really done. My read on you hasn't developed much because you haven't developed much. I've seen you town hard in a few games and this hadn't looked much like that to me.

But I am towning hard. You believed me that Sprityo and Speedchuck were bad, even though you suspected me, right?

What’s more town Jack than driving lynches on mostly the wrong players?

The question about Speedchuck is important.

[Turnip Head]

Ummm I guess you're right.

[DharmaHelper]

@DharmaHelper

Name your scumteams if there are 2 things and if there are 3.

If there are 2? DDL/TH

If there are 3? DDL/TH/Wilgy

That’s pretty unexpected.

Why do you think INH is town?

Maybe I'm fucking w/ you.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Ftn then. Imma go be a harry wizard for a bit.

[DharmaHelper]

In seriousness, I've town-read INH all game and he's not given me any reason to shift it.

[insertnamehere]

Did a speedy ISO of both DDL and TH. Both were...decidedly meh.

DDL supported Sprit and attacked Luna over the first couple of Days. Ever since Day 3-ish, he sank into what feels like apathy about the game. Not really a drive to solve shit, more like a drive to remain under the radar. Jack did a good in-depth write-up on him. (although when he refers to himself in the third person it creeps me out.)

TH feels like regular lackadaisical TH, but with even less of a normal drive to solve. His formidable powers of irreverence seem to be used for obfuscation instead of a more noble goal. He does call people out, and make an effort to stir shit with a giant stick. But, here on Day 6, with a potential LYLO, he looks fairly insincere.

[insertnamehere]

Hey Jack. Let's play a game.

What would you say the defining difference is between your civ and scum playing/posting strategies?

[insertnamehere]

Hey Jack. Let's play a game.

What would you say is the defining difference is between your civ and scum playing/posting strategies?

EBWOP

[Jackofhearts2005]

Hey Jack. Let's play a game.

What would you say the defining difference is between your civ and scum playing/posting strategies?

When I’m scum, I have a more detailed plan.

As town, I start with a bunch of null reads and I try to sort them. Player A feels town. Player B started a train on a scum player and tried hard to save a town player from lynch. Player C is not voting their scumreads. Player D is not interested in hunting. Player E says they suspect player D but they keep ultimately voting elsewhere when it really matters. Lynch the scumreads. Listen to the townreads and try to keep them from getting lynch. Hope Jay doesn’t go after me and knock me over before I really get going. Shitpost. As EOG appoaches, try to find w/w and w/t or t/t groups and do ISOs now that it’s worthwhile. Hope I’m right. Rely on charisma and effort to never be lynched.

When I’m scum, I try to replicate my town game. I’m more likely to selectively ignore shit about ne, though I still do this as town. I’m more likely to take a strong stance on competing t/t wagons. But there’s always a plan. A list of most to least mislynchable townies. A list of townies I can ignore/buddy vs ones I must kill. Reasons to mislynch. Reasons to defend. An internal calculation of when I must bus and when I cannot. At EOD, there’s an order. Mislynch A, kill B, mislynch C, kill D.

As scum, I can have a plan because I know exactly what has to be done. As town, I can be wrong which means going back to the drawing board.

Does this help? I kinda just like talking about myself regardless.

[Jackofhearts2005]

At EOG*, there’s an orde

[Jackofhearts2005]

order*

[Jackofhearts2005]

In seriousness, I've town-read INH all game and he's not given me any reason to shift it.

Convince me, yo.