It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia [END]

[Mongoose]

Juliets is locked Town with Luna's flip, not like she wasn't before just with her presence and then claim. I'm having trouble seeing a world where Sloonei is bad.

So unless Nova is bamboozling us (and I was right all along ), I'm fairly certain Mongoose/Llama are the infamous duo.

FTFY

Translate please

[Mongoose]

I think llama and mongoose coordinated their moves yesterday. I think they deliberately tried to pocket Mac by puffing up his case on nova.

If I’m boiling it down to one issue that makes me think it’s llama/mongoose instead of llama/mac, that’s it.

Coordinating our moves makes me think of Llama and I being on a dance floor together, which seems rather unlikely.

In theory, the idea of Llama and I being on a baddie team (or any team) sounds quite twee, but here's how that dialogue would go of us trying to formulate a plan.

Me: Okay, I am going to say this. You back me up by saying this.

Him: Don't tell me what to do.

Me: You're being unreasonable.

Him: You're being unreasonable.

Me: Fine say whatever you want.

///

That dialogue above would also work if you swapped out the names.


Also, super soz I haven't been around today. I have felt super ratty and ended up sleeping most of the day or eating a lot of red meat.

True, but we are both in Murder Park.

Always remember Murder Park.

[Mongoose]

I think llama and mongoose coordinated their moves yesterday. I think they deliberately tried to pocket Mac by puffing up his case on nova.

If I’m boiling it down to one issue that makes me think it’s llama/mongoose instead of llama/mac, that’s it.

Coordinating our moves makes me think of Llama and I being on a dance floor together, which seems rather unlikely.

In theory, the idea of Llama and I being on a baddie team (or any team) sounds quite twee, but here's how that dialogue would go of us trying to formulate a plan.

Me: Okay, I am going to say this. You back me up by saying this.

Him: Don't tell me what to do.

Me: You're being unreasonable.

Him: You're being unreasonable.

Me: Fine say whatever you want.

///

That dialogue above would also work if you swapped out the names.


Also, super soz I haven't been around today. I have felt super ratty and ended up sleeping most of the day or eating a lot of red meat.

Omg this sounds just like the two of you.

There is an alternate universe where we WERE the mafia team, and that's exactly what happened.

[novaselinenever]

Mongoose flipped with you in her PoE, I believe.

Her POE was nova, sloonei, llama.

Mine has been less sure but I've been pursuing llama and Mongoose during the night phase.

Yeah that's what I mean with the Mongoose > Sloonei flip, 'cause I've figured yours has been Llama/Me/Mongoose. The people who said you were going to re-read today.

Sloonei was never a Person of Interest to me. I thought the Day 2 shenanigans were weird as hell, and it took me a while to parse that out, but I didn't go the Mac Route (although I will admit it did put a reasonable doubt in my brain before I reminded myself that that was silly).

I never said he was. You read that post wrong, it's about Luna's PoE compared to Juliets.

[Mongoose]

I read nova as town. It's not that I can't see the possibility of him being civilian, it's that we're at 4 vs 2 situation right now and for the duration of this game he's struck me as a civilian in tone and content, and I've not come across a single argument that has convinced me otherwise. I'm happy to continue talking about him because if he's fooling me, I would like to be able to see it. But so far I do not.
After Mac's response to the Day 2 lynch, I have extreme difficulty viewing him as mafia as well. Juliets is as close to confirmed town as a player can be.

I arrived at Mongoose/llama as a scum pairing before I had removed Mac from my POE, and all the while have been unable to argue for a scum nova. I just don't see it.

Does anybody suspect me to any serious degree at this stage?

Cmon man, you know the answer to that.

[Mongoose]

I think llama and mongoose coordinated their moves yesterday. I think they deliberately tried to pocket Mac by puffing up his case on nova.

If I’m boiling it down to one issue that makes me think it’s llama/mongoose instead of llama/mac, that’s it.

Coordinating our moves makes me think of Llama and I being on a dance floor together, which seems rather unlikely.

In theory, the idea of Llama and I being on a baddie team (or any team) sounds quite twee, but here's how that dialogue would go of us trying to formulate a plan.

Me: Okay, I am going to say this. You back me up by saying this.

Him: Don't tell me what to do.

Me: You're being unreasonable.

Him: You're being unreasonable.

Me: Fine say whatever you want.

///

That dialogue above would also work if you swapped out the names.


Also, super soz I haven't been around today. I have felt super ratty and ended up sleeping most of the day or eating a lot of red meat.

This post divides the two sides of me. My cynical and angry side reads this is as the most strawman argument ever but then my sensitive vegan side reads it as genuine.

I wish you knew us better, and then you'd get it. Also, we should talk about vegetables sometime.

[Mongoose]

@ you've talked about nova most of the day. I'm interested in your reads on everybody else now.

I also talked a lot about Mongoose during the day. I am confident that she and Nova are bad. I agree that Juliets is a confirmed civ. I looked hard for evidence of you being bad and didn't find it. It is remotely possible that Mac is bad, but I don't believe he is. Everyone else is dead.

Walk me through mac and mongoose reads.

Okay, my Mongoose read is basically based around her being blendy for the whole game. No strong reads, no strong cases, lots of wishy-washiness, lots of excuses, and most of all an eagerness to please when called out. She has cited your wishes as a reason to "do better", which I find suspicious. She seems very eager to look good and play into expectations. She mentioned modifying her playstyle early on. I find that weird. I don't modify my playstyle. She has been coasting and failing to ruffle any feathers, even when she comes under suspicion. She plays more defense than offense, which I associate with baddies because saying "I'm not bad" is easier than making a fake case on someone you know to be good. Also, the tone of a few of her posts has seemed contrived and inauthentic to me.

As for Mac, it's the exact opposite. He came in guns a blazing, not afraid to throw out "I'm positive x is bad" reads all over the place. He appears to have no concern about drawing attention to himself or trying to cover himself should he turn out to be wrong about anything. He throws caution to the wind. A particularly bold and confident baddie could potentially pull this off, but it's incredibly hard to do convincingly. If his teammate is Nova, then he has an ability to conjure up fake outrage and energy that I have rarely seen. If he is bad, I think Mongoose is more likely to be his teammate for this reason.

I'm having trouble turning my brain off. llama can you think of a game on this site where Mongoose was bad? I feel the need to see a comparison. Or a game where she was good - I can look to see if she is pounding out reads and making cases. You're right that she's blendy, and has an eagerness to please (which I associate strongly with Mongoose the person). I understand you associating playing more defense than offense with a baddie style but is it a Mongoose baddie style? I want to see that in action if possible.

I thiiiink I was bad in a game with Dev and Russti - Super Mario, probably in 2013. We won. I was also a baddie in the Six Feet Under with SVS and Sorsha. We did not win. Also around 2013.

[Mongoose]

Mongoose flipped with you in her PoE, I believe.

Her POE was nova, sloonei, llama.

Mine has been less sure but I've been pursuing llama and Mongoose during the night phase.

Yeah that's what I mean with the Mongoose > Sloonei flip, 'cause I've figured yours has been Llama/Me/Mongoose. The people who said you were going to re-read today.

Sloonei was never a Person of Interest to me. I thought the Day 2 shenanigans were weird as hell, and it took me a while to parse that out, but I didn't go the Mac Route (although I will admit it did put a reasonable doubt in my brain before I reminded myself that that was silly).

I never said he was. You read that post wrong, it's about Luna's PoE compared to Juliets.

okay sorry about that - I am reading SO fast.

[Mongoose]

I brought it up once. Where are you getting "keep bringing it up"?

This is a lie, which you admit in the very next post.

The other times I brought up the number of my post is about you not dinging into them and developing a read, not them having a bearing on my alignment.

Stop lying, liar.

So are you going to pretend that your "keep bringing it up" isn't in correlation to bringing it up as a mean to justify civiness, and volume of posts being a factor in alignment?

Whatever float your boat, just keep side-stepping.

What is even going on here? Teammate nonsense?

[Mongoose]

Eh, I want to see Llama go first now. Slightly tilted lol.

[VOTE: Llama] aubergine

Good, he's getting on my dang nerves.

[Mongoose]

Ok ugh. Mongoose sounds so sincere to me. I will go back in her ISO and look for her to be begging people to explain something whether it's MYLO/LYLO or something else. I don't remember anything offhand but I need to look.

My brain is fried. I'm checking out and will start reading nova in the morning after I check Mongoose's ISO.

Look through just the first few pages for it. If I have time, I'll find it later tonight when I'm done with this work out.

Mongoose, I looked through the first two pages of your ISO and couldn't find you begging for an explanation for anything. You don't have to do it tonight but I would appreciate your showing me the post you're talking about.

I will look, but it might be in one of the other two games I briefly played, and that's why we can't find it.

[novaselinenever]

Also, juliets come back and answer my question from forever ago. Who are your two picks for the mafia right now?

I'm waiting to hear from Mongoose on the questions I asked her, especially about the post that looks like it could be a slip, but I would say I suspect you and her more than I suspect her and nova. It just seemed like you were in concert with each other at various times in the game. I really need to hear from her though to tell you how solid I am on that read of you two. I need all the puzzle pieces I can get.

On the other hand, I'm still a little bothered about why I didn't die (the tinfoil part of me). If you (or anyone) was bad why take out Luna over me? She isn't participating much and her power was obviously gone. Did she die because of her reads? Is it because I seemed pliant and she didn't seem like someone you could talk into suspecting someone else? Can anyone tell me why they think she got the axe and not me? Another question along this line: why are sloonei and nova still alive? I hate asking these questions but paranoia over the NK is killing me. Maybe I just need sleep.

Maybe they killed luna so you'd start asking yourself these questions.

I guess it seems like to me everyone who's not mafia should have the question in their mind "why Luna?" They picked her for a reason, else why not take out the civ who is trying to help solve the game.

Killing luna on Night 2 is frankly so predictable that I am dumbfounded that folks think a Mongoose/Llama team would consider something so basic.

Read,

But a Mongoose/Nova team might

[Mongoose]

@novaselinenever @thellama73 @MacDougall @juliets @Mongoose could you share your strongest reason to A) town read and B) scum read each person remaining in your POE?

Sloonei: Captain Town. I'm not going to bother with a scum read. If you are mafia, I am going to be so pissed haha.

Mac: It's been in both the other games I've played (albeit very briefly) lately. It seems very different here. Get a whiff of those civ pheromones. On the other side, it's smart and wiley enough to pull off such a charade. I don't think that's likely here though.

Llama: He's been active like Sloonei, trying to sort through the nonsense to the kernel of what's going on. Comes in guns blazing, but do you really expect anything different? I think I have towncleared Llama once in a game (without using an info-gathering power, I mean). Never completely trustworthy.

Juliets: I was pretty sold on her from that top of p.4 frustrated civ read. It hasn't wavered since then.

Nova: Now this guy is a clever cat. He has walked the line between being Mr. Helpful (appreciated) and starting this antagonist brawls with Mac and then Llama that do not accomplish anything; rather they derail discussion when other folks are pulling down some serious ISOs (Juliets, SLoonei, and even Llama). I'm not saying he hasn't put in hard work too, he has, but there's this rogue element to Nova that I just don't trust. He knows how to whisper in the ear of King of Gondor and damn if he didn't get Sloonei to stand up (I think I'm mixing up the LOTR mythology here a little bit, but just go with it) and take up swords. But instead of it being against the eye of Sauron, he is now going after this little hobbit who just wants some tea and cake but is instead fighting for her life.

Fight Wormtongue, Save the Hobbit

[Mongoose]

Also, juliets come back and answer my question from forever ago. Who are your two picks for the mafia right now?

I'm waiting to hear from Mongoose on the questions I asked her, especially about the post that looks like it could be a slip, but I would say I suspect you and her more than I suspect her and nova. It just seemed like you were in concert with each other at various times in the game. I really need to hear from her though to tell you how solid I am on that read of you two. I need all the puzzle pieces I can get.

On the other hand, I'm still a little bothered about why I didn't die (the tinfoil part of me). If you (or anyone) was bad why take out Luna over me? She isn't participating much and her power was obviously gone. Did she die because of her reads? Is it because I seemed pliant and she didn't seem like someone you could talk into suspecting someone else? Can anyone tell me why they think she got the axe and not me? Another question along this line: why are sloonei and nova still alive? I hate asking these questions but paranoia over the NK is killing me. Maybe I just need sleep.

Maybe they killed luna so you'd start asking yourself these questions.

I guess it seems like to me everyone who's not mafia should have the question in their mind "why Luna?" They picked her for a reason, else why not take out the civ who is trying to help solve the game.

Killing luna on Night 2 is frankly so predictable that I am dumbfounded that folks think a Mongoose/Llama team would consider something so basic.

Read,

But a Mongoose/Nova team might

Are we on a team together? If so, we aren't doing a very good job.

[Sloonei]

I arrived at the conclusion of a Mongoose/llama team before anyone else. Alleging that nova is responsible for the suspicion of you is inaccurate.

[Mongoose]

I arrived at the conclusion of a Mongoose/llama team before anyone else. Alleging that nova is responsible for the suspicion of you is inaccurate.

Is that aimed at me? If so, I'm not sure what you are responding to.

[Mongoose]

@novaselinenever @thellama73 @MacDougall @juliets @Mongoose could you share your strongest reason to A) town read and B) scum read each person remaining in your POE?

Town read

Juliets - mechanically confirmed
Sloonei - all his posts
Mac - The "Plan" + our interaction after Luna's flip and his reaction
Mongoose - Handling of suspicions, and tone
Llama - Entrance in the game

Scum read

Juliets - 404
Sloonei - I'd rahter not thinkg about it
Mac - His lack of convictions for most of the game, bland hot takes, using my scum read and tunnel to tunnel back and skate by. Going for the town confirmed attempt through the plan, and giving it to Mongoose as well who's my pick for scum compatibility.
Mongoose - mostly blending, no convictions in scum reads, shading me without committing while buddying mac
Llama - called me a liar

This was funny AND appreciated.

[Mongoose]

Also, no offense taken at being called a liar

I'm done interacting with you. Your phoney moral high ground is easy now that you think your team is about to win.

Vote for me if you want the mafia to win.

I agree with your take the most.

I think Nova and Mongoose are the Mafia. I think that if Nova was a civilian he'd be voting for Mongoose today and not you given that you have shown that you're okay with Mongoose being lynched.

Tree Mafia again. They are going for the win today. One of them dying today (Mongoose) gives the town a lot more time and Nova will be cooked.

I think that's gameset imo.

After all this time, you are not going with your gut to vote Nova, a guy you got me thinking was bad, and now you're going to make a big mistake. It's MYLOoooooooo or the highway.

[Mongoose]

Also, no offense taken at being called a liar

I'm done interacting with you. Your phoney moral high ground is easy now that you think your team is about to win.

Vote for me if you want the mafia to win.

I agree with your take the most.

I think Nova and Mongoose are the Mafia. I think that if Nova was a civilian he'd be voting for Mongoose today and not you given that you have shown that you're okay with Mongoose being lynched.

Tree Mafia again. They are going for the win today. One of them dying today (Mongoose) gives the town a lot more time and Nova will be cooked.

I think that's gameset imo.

I was voting Mongoose up, until I got called a liar

There is zero reason to lynch anybody but Mongoose. She's unanimous suspect of everybody. In this situation that means she's Mafia. I've seen it before. Tree Mafia. Been saying it all game.

The problem that Mongoose's teammate has, whether it's you or not, is that her dying today completely flips the percentages back to civ favour. So her teammate wants to win today.

Wh's Mongoose's teammate? I think it's you Nova. You blinked.

You sure did flip on me pretty suddenly.

[Mongoose]

Mongoose gets lynched -> Llama kills Juliets -> We no-lynch > Llama kills Sloonei > "tReE mAfIA, i FuCkInG kNoW iT", I get mislynched > Town loses

It's written in the stars.

On the off chance you're a civilian you'd better make some better arguments right now because you're right about what's about to go down if Llama and Mongoose is the team.

As it stands Llama's made a better case on you than you've made on him from where I sit and you're already starting with a disadvantage because I've been reading you Mafia all game.

For a start, drop the antagonism towards me entirely because it will not help your cause one iota.

The antagonism has been distracting and weird. But that swings both ways.

[novaselinenever]

TIL interactions do not accomplish anything in Mafia and derail discussions. ISO or bust.

[Mongoose]

Why exactly is Mongoose not compatible with Llama?

What is this, my family's Christmas dinner?

[Mongoose]

TIL interactions do not accomplish anything in Mafia and derail discussions. ISO or bust.

wut

[Sloonei]

I arrived at the conclusion of a Mongoose/llama team before anyone else. Alleging that nova is responsible for the suspicion of you is inaccurate.

Is that aimed at me? If so, I'm not sure what you are responding to.

You referring to nova as Wormtongue.

[Mongoose]

Why it's Llama and Mongoose: An Analysis

By Sloonei

Llama arrives on the scene Night 1 and starts throwing his weight around like a good boy. Look at him go!

Okay, I read day zero and I want to post some thoughts before I forget them, and then move on to reading Day 1:
ColinIsCool - Nothing of substance. I don't love the aloofness.
dunya - Seems supatown to me. Good, aggressive behavior trying to smoke out baddies. I like.
juliets - The exchange with Mac where he demands she throw out reads and she refuses is interesting. Could go a number of ways, but I'm inclined to read it civ on civ.
Lunalee - Sucking up a little to Dunya, but then again, I can see why.
MacDougall - See juliets.
Mongoose - Her tone seems a little different than what I'm used to. Bears watching.
novaselinenever - I was pinged by her post expressing frustration over not having won in a while. Could be the result of being given a baddie role and feeling outnumbered.
Sloonei - Active posting, good hunting. Leaning town.

His first mention of Mongoose is a negative one. He implicates that bears are watching her suggests that she deserves scrutiny with an assumed implication that he intends to carry the torch.

Another thing he does around the same time is call out Colin for various things, among them, his no lynch vote:

Okay, I'm mostly caught up. I do think Colin looks terrible after Day 1. Wishy washy, not hunting, no reads, votes for no lynch (along with Mongoose) which is always a bad vote, in my view. HOWEVER there's this: [Some crap about Luna].

This will be relevant later. Put a pin in it. Moving along:

I don't like to play the "we know each other well" card at all. I don't want anyone thinking I have a superior abilty to read someone based on a personal relationship. I am not Ika and Silverwolf. That said, I thought her tone seemed weird for all of Day 0. In Day 1, she started out on the defensive, which I always think is a bad look, but has since settled in to what I consider to be her usual playstyle. Right now, I would say my read on her is fairly neutral leaning very slightly in the direction of bad. I think the two baddies will be found among Colin, Mongoose, Nova, and Luna. Mac has me feeling really confident he's a civ. Way to pile on that mass, Mac.

Juliets asks Llama for a more elaborate read on Mongoose because they know each other well. I don't fault llama for trying to avoid that card and I think it's noble. But it doesn't tell me anything about his alignment here. I do get a little suggestion of something in everything he says after the ika and silverwolf memory (and what a memory that is!) "Her tone seemed weird... she started out on the defensive, which I always think is a bad look... fairly neutral leaning very slightly in the direction of bad." I think I used the term "throat clearing" in my original ISO when I came across this post. Llama spends about half this post hemming and hawing before spitting out "fairly neutral leaning very slightly in the direction of bad." I can't imagine it's possible to express a suspicion in weaker terms. This suspicion is so weak it might as well be a town read. But it's not.

But also that's not even my biggest concern. He's thrice mentioned Mongoose, the player he knows best in the game, in a negative light. Should that not make her a fairly compelling suspect in the llama book?
Evidently not, because the next time she comes up is right here:

Okay, now that it's Day, I have questions.

Colin & Mongoose: Why did you vote no lynch yesterday? Be specific.

Everyone else: What is your read on Luna? I don't like how no one but me is talking about her. It feels like a "move on, nothing to see here" kind of scenario.

Her response:

I’ve been on the fence on whether to be truthful about what happened with my vote (hear me out), but I’ve been very candid in this game and I want to continue that. About 45 mins before the vote ended, I decided to switch my vote to Luna, Like is said I would do when I fully picked a player to vote. I literally voted in one of the changing stalls at the yoga studio. Then I put my phone in my bag and headed to class. When I got out, I was shocked to see that the poll said I voted No Lynch. I don’t know if I failed to lock my phone and the gremlins got at it, if it’s another symptom of Mercury being in retrograde, or it just tumbled around in my gym bag with my clothes when I stuffed it into a cubby, but I didn’t intend to switch off Luna.

I mean why would I? I promised all day that I would vote for a player, and I kinda torpedoed my work day to catch up to my put myself in a position to do that. So imagine my abject horror when I saw it didn’t reflect Luna. I don’t blame you if you are skeptical of this story. I’d be too if it hadn’t happened to me.

But that’s what really happened. I won’t be doing any more no lynch votes by the way; I was kinda using it as a placeholder to make sure I wasn’t a voting non participant.

It was one of the most frustrating things I’ve experienced in a game and it was no one’s fault, but YIKES.

If you have any questions, please @ me to ensure I see it -thanks!

This reads as rehearsed to me. "I've been on the fence..." followed by a big long story which absolves her of the cardinal sin of No Lynching. These were the very first things either of them posted on Day 2, which just furthers the impression that they conspired during the night in BTSC to push this story to the forefront so that the No Lynch saga can fade away quickly, as evidenced by his response.

Here is where you can take the pin out and go back to my point about Colin from earlier. Colin, of course, was the other sinner guilty of No Lynching. How do these two treat Colin on the day that he will be lynched? Llama has almost nothing to say about him rather uncritically accepts Colin's rationale for the No Lynch (which I believe he'd shared previously anyway) and then referenced him off hand a couple more times as a potential, backburner suspect. The meatiest instance came here when he listed Colin among his "weak" group of town reads in Operation: Trustfall. But, like, there's no pursuit of Colin before or after this. All the while, The Cool Guy is getting lynched. Llama mentions him zero more times until posting "RIP Colin". Mongoose, meanwhile, was openly supportive of Colin through the day (but never actively campaigned against his lynch, I might add.)

I propose that the scum team comprised of Llama and Mongoose actively conspired to keep the No Lynch discussion away from the forefront of the discussion. 1) Llama opened the day by asking Colin and Mongoose to explain themselves. 2) Mongoose's first post of the day was then a response to this question in which she shared a very thoroughly detailed story about how she came to accidentally vote for a No Lynch. 3) They both absolved not only Mongoose, but also Colin of any wrongdoing. Note the marked contrast between Night 1 Llama and Day 2 llama with regards to the no lynches. On Night 1 it was a bad thing all the time. On Day 2 it was a non-issue after the first post.

So what did these two focus on instead Day 2?
Answer: Luna & Nova. Both of them, separately, pushed the same two suspects in almost the same way. WILD, huh? Mafia need two mislynches to win the game and they have a lot of confusion and uncertainty in the thread. Mongoose was a suspect, but now that we've swept the No Lynch drama under the rug, all we need to do is push some other names to the forefront and she can fade away.

Llama & Mongoose talkin' 'bout Luna, Day 2:

Spoiler: show

I mean I threw the claim out there because I have nothing to lose from it. It's only a potential help to town. I get it looks "too convenient" but I thought it would be better than staying silent about my role. I also get that you guys don't have to believe me, but dang @Sloonei to ask for a claim and then not believe it when it shows up is a bit silly.

Having nothing to lose would be as good a reason to lie as it would be to tell the truth. If not a better reason.

@Lunalee you seem to be the closest thing to a consensus suspect right now. I’m not sure I see it, but I also don’t feel like I have enough evidence to call you a firm town read. Get in here and give us your thoughts on things please and thanks.

Also why aren’t you all voting?

Reason I'm not voting is because it is Thursday night, and I have until Saturday to decide who to vote for.

I am also surprised to be a consensus suspect. I don't see it either, but maybe I should catch up first.

I don’t care what time it is or how long we have left. Votes on the poll are data and visible action. They help. Everyone should put their votes on the player they most suspect at any time.

Based on this, I’ll go ahead and vote early too.[VOTE: luna] aubergine

Okay, so I saw this and thought it was a positive point for mongoose:

Spoiler: show

Okay, now that it's Day, I have questions.

Colin & Mongoose: Why did you vote no lynch yesterday? Be specific.

Everyone else: What is your read on Luna? I don't like how no one but me is talking about her. It feels like a "move on, nothing to see here" kind of scenario.

I’ve been on the fence on whether to be truthful about what happened with my vote (hear me out), but I’ve been very candid in this game and I want to continue that. About 45 mins before the vote ended, I decided to switch my vote to Luna, Like is said I would do when I fully picked a player to vote. I literally voted in one of the changing stalls at the yoga studio. Then I put my phone in my bag and headed to class. When I got out, I was shocked to see that the poll said I voted No Lynch. I don’t know if I failed to lock my phone and the gremlins got at it, if it’s another symptom of Mercury being in retrograde, or it just tumbled around in my gym bag with my clothes when I stuffed it into a cubby, but I didn’t intend to switch off Luna.

I mean why would I? I promised all day that I would vote for a player, and I kinda torpedoed my work day to catch up to my put myself in a position to do that. So imagine my abject horror when I saw it didn’t reflect Luna. I don’t blame you if you are skeptical of this story. I’d be too if it hadn’t happened to me.

But that’s what really happened. I won’t be doing any more no lynch votes by the way; I was kinda using it as a placeholder to make sure I wasn’t a voting non participant.

It was one of the most frustrating things I’ve experienced in a game and it was no one’s fault, but YIKES.

If you have any questions, please @ me to ensure I see it -thanks!

That being said, I don't think you would make up this story as a lie, so fine.

BUT then you later say that it's "non-alignment indicative." okay, guess I sort of missed that.

Yeah, I don't see her making up a needless lie like that. It would be easier just to own the no lynch vote and argue why it's a good vote, as many people have done successfully in the past. I don't think the fact that she didn't lie in this instance makes her necessarily good though.

Just want to throw this out there: What has Colin done in this game that scum Colin wouldn't do?

Not a fan of this question. It's like asking people to prove a negative. The burden of proof is on the town to demonstrate that lynch candidates might be bad. "You can't prove he's not bad, therefore he's bad" is a slippery, fallacious argument. The only honest answer to your question is "nothing" because baddies are capable of doing anything thta civs can do. There are, however, certain things baddies would do that civs would never do. So a better question is, What has Colin done this game that civvie Colin wouldn't do?

Personaly, I think there are a couple of answers to that, but the fact that you asked it the other way around makes me even more suspicious of you than I already was.

If juliets is telling the truth, then we either have a civilian 1-shot doublevoter and a mafia roleblocker in addition to her, or she’s the only non-vanilla role in the game.

If the former, then it might be prudent for the doublevoter to claim now. We could have two pseudo-cleared civilians instead of a single dubious cop claim. I think that would be more valuable than a single concealed double vote. The mafia roleblocker is essentially powerless now, assuming they can only block night actions.

Well okay. I'm the doublevoter.

Are we sure about that?

Okay, Sloonei, you win. Luna is faker than a plastic Christmas tree in July.

[VOTE: Luna] aubergine

And so on. You get the picture. This last one is particularly egregious, because at no point did I feel like I had pinned Luna down as scum, nor did I attempt to or suggest such a thing. Llama looks like he was trying to provoke me to vote for Luna.

Llama & Mongoose talkin' 'bout Nova, Day 2:

Spoiler: show

Ok, this is getting damn confusing.

Luna's claim: the mafia knows which configuration we're in so if we're in the cop, vanilla, vanilla they know one of them can claim double voter and get away with it. Is that what you guys (Mac, Sloon, llama) believe? It does seem like a possibility. And I did make the point earlier that Luna could have given that "bright shining civ" compliment to dunya to distance herself from a kill. But, would she have known that early in the game that they were going to kill dunya? I'm more confused about Luna than I was before the NK.

Mac and nova - I don't think Mac is mafia but is his nova and sloonei suspicion believable? I need to look at nova again and see if I feel like his Mac suspicion was made up or flowed naturally. sloonei's suspicion of me and subsequent tunneling definitely seemed off to me given my behavior as a civ over many games. I don't relish the thought of re-reading sloonei but I guess I'm going to have to. Sloonei is my tinfoil suspicion.

thellama73 what are you thinking about nova and sloonei? Do the things Mac says make sense to you?

MacDougall PLEASE don't check out. We really need you now. No one was responding to you because we were asleep not because we don't care. Please don't devolve into just trolling.

I have not felt too good about Nova from the beginning, but I don't have very much concrete to go on. I think Sloonei is civilian. Pretty much the only thing I really agree with Mac on is his suspicion of Luna. I think her claim coming as it did right after Sloonei mentioned that it would be a good idea for the doublevoter to claim, felt too convenient. She said "I have nothing to lose" which sounds to me like a baddie about to be lynched throwing a last minute hail mary. I don't think it's as sophisticated the analysis above indicates. Just desperation.

Llama's been pretty consistent with his "got pinged early" read on me. It's giving me the heebie jeebies

Do the heebiejeebies mean you think he's bad?

Not necessarily. It a negative ping though.

That seems like... an odd thing to be pinged by. But okay.

Lynch all liars?

Epignosis claims he lies all the time as a civilian, but he is weird. I generally assume that if someone is caught in a lie, they are bad. The question I'm asking myself now is whether you legitimately expected me to forget a suspicion I had less than 72 hours ago.

I don't expect you to forget it. However, I'd expect you to omit it when sharing reads especially when it's something as weak as being pinged by "Hi, I'm nova and I'm tired of losing". The contrast is too big.

Perhaps lol. I disagree though, the original ping itself (yours) is pretty weak. It's about my first comment in thread "tired to lose" that one has to milk heavily in order to extrapolate a scum read from. I feel that'd be pretty natural for someone to forget about it with how many other posts and content I have that can be analyzed for reads. Repeating it several times (especially when it's contrasted by a "I feel better about him now/recently") strikes me as being extremely self-aware to and attempt to keep consistency that isn't natural.

(and a bit of prodding Mac to bring up his nova case)
Mongoose actually doesn't have much to say about nova on Day 2, but the surrounding phases have content:

Ok thanks llama that's very helpful. Can you be more specific on what you are seeing in nova that causes you to call him bad? If you have done that and I missed it, my apologies.

Not a lot concrete. I found the initial "tired of losing" comment suspicious. Others have gone on to explain that away, but I don't know that I'm convinced. I don't like Nova's case on Mac. Very unconvincing to me. Call it a gut read if you like.

I find the latter allegation way way more persuasive than the former.

Linkcake

We've got an hour and a half left, votes ever so slightly leaning toward Colin. I support this lynch, but my mind is far from made up. If anything has any concerns about either of these wagons, or about anything else that's going on, please voice them. This is a pretty crucial lynch.

Bleeding over from yesterday, it would definitely be nova. Seems as much as a complementary team as any of the others we've postulated.

Lynch all liars?

Epignosis claims he lies all the time as a civilian, but he is weird. I generally assume that if someone is caught in a lie, they are bad. The question I'm asking myself now is whether you legitimately expected me to forget a suspicion I had less than 72 hours ago.

I don't expect you to forget it. However, I'd expect you to omit it when sharing reads especially when it's something as weak as being pinged by "Hi, I'm nova and I'm tired of losing". The contrast is too big.

Man, that was a weird ping. Whether you have lost or not seems super based in fact (and not alignment indicative).

SO, in conclusion, Llama & Mongoose spent Day 2 making sure that the No Lynch issue faded away, then pushed hard on Luna while passively allowing Colin to be lynched without dirtying their hands. Each of them have supported cases against nova at various times and have pushed him in this final phase as a primary POE target. NOW we can still believe that nova is bad, and his alignment is far from confirmed, but the amount of apparent coordination I can find in Llama and Mongoose's posts is staggering, frankly. I can't look past it. They are bad.

I did a HUGE ISO on Colin. To say I didn't campaign against his lynch is frankly disingenuous and if this was court, I'd ask it be stricken from the records for being misleading.

[Mongoose]

I arrived at the conclusion of a Mongoose/llama team before anyone else. Alleging that nova is responsible for the suspicion of you is inaccurate.

Is that aimed at me? If so, I'm not sure what you are responding to.

You referring to nova as Wormtongue.

I'm sure you are correct.

[novaselinenever]

Why it's Llama and Mongoose: An Analysis

By Sloonei

Llama arrives on the scene Night 1 and starts throwing his weight around like a good boy. Look at him go!

Okay, I read day zero and I want to post some thoughts before I forget them, and then move on to reading Day 1:
ColinIsCool - Nothing of substance. I don't love the aloofness.
dunya - Seems supatown to me. Good, aggressive behavior trying to smoke out baddies. I like.
juliets - The exchange with Mac where he demands she throw out reads and she refuses is interesting. Could go a number of ways, but I'm inclined to read it civ on civ.
Lunalee - Sucking up a little to Dunya, but then again, I can see why.
MacDougall - See juliets.
Mongoose - Her tone seems a little different than what I'm used to. Bears watching.
novaselinenever - I was pinged by her post expressing frustration over not having won in a while. Could be the result of being given a baddie role and feeling outnumbered.
Sloonei - Active posting, good hunting. Leaning town.

His first mention of Mongoose is a negative one. He implicates that bears are watching her suggests that she deserves scrutiny with an assumed implication that he intends to carry the torch.

Another thing he does around the same time is call out Colin for various things, among them, his no lynch vote:

Okay, I'm mostly caught up. I do think Colin looks terrible after Day 1. Wishy washy, not hunting, no reads, votes for no lynch (along with Mongoose) which is always a bad vote, in my view. HOWEVER there's this: [Some crap about Luna].

This will be relevant later. Put a pin in it. Moving along:

I don't like to play the "we know each other well" card at all. I don't want anyone thinking I have a superior abilty to read someone based on a personal relationship. I am not Ika and Silverwolf. That said, I thought her tone seemed weird for all of Day 0. In Day 1, she started out on the defensive, which I always think is a bad look, but has since settled in to what I consider to be her usual playstyle. Right now, I would say my read on her is fairly neutral leaning very slightly in the direction of bad. I think the two baddies will be found among Colin, Mongoose, Nova, and Luna. Mac has me feeling really confident he's a civ. Way to pile on that mass, Mac.

Juliets asks Llama for a more elaborate read on Mongoose because they know each other well. I don't fault llama for trying to avoid that card and I think it's noble. But it doesn't tell me anything about his alignment here. I do get a little suggestion of something in everything he says after the ika and silverwolf memory (and what a memory that is!) "Her tone seemed weird... she started out on the defensive, which I always think is a bad look... fairly neutral leaning very slightly in the direction of bad." I think I used the term "throat clearing" in my original ISO when I came across this post. Llama spends about half this post hemming and hawing before spitting out "fairly neutral leaning very slightly in the direction of bad." I can't imagine it's possible to express a suspicion in weaker terms. This suspicion is so weak it might as well be a town read. But it's not.

But also that's not even my biggest concern. He's thrice mentioned Mongoose, the player he knows best in the game, in a negative light. Should that not make her a fairly compelling suspect in the llama book?
Evidently not, because the next time she comes up is right here:

Okay, now that it's Day, I have questions.

Colin & Mongoose: Why did you vote no lynch yesterday? Be specific.

Everyone else: What is your read on Luna? I don't like how no one but me is talking about her. It feels like a "move on, nothing to see here" kind of scenario.

Her response:

I’ve been on the fence on whether to be truthful about what happened with my vote (hear me out), but I’ve been very candid in this game and I want to continue that. About 45 mins before the vote ended, I decided to switch my vote to Luna, Like is said I would do when I fully picked a player to vote. I literally voted in one of the changing stalls at the yoga studio. Then I put my phone in my bag and headed to class. When I got out, I was shocked to see that the poll said I voted No Lynch. I don’t know if I failed to lock my phone and the gremlins got at it, if it’s another symptom of Mercury being in retrograde, or it just tumbled around in my gym bag with my clothes when I stuffed it into a cubby, but I didn’t intend to switch off Luna.

I mean why would I? I promised all day that I would vote for a player, and I kinda torpedoed my work day to catch up to my put myself in a position to do that. So imagine my abject horror when I saw it didn’t reflect Luna. I don’t blame you if you are skeptical of this story. I’d be too if it hadn’t happened to me.

But that’s what really happened. I won’t be doing any more no lynch votes by the way; I was kinda using it as a placeholder to make sure I wasn’t a voting non participant.

It was one of the most frustrating things I’ve experienced in a game and it was no one’s fault, but YIKES.

If you have any questions, please @ me to ensure I see it -thanks!

This reads as rehearsed to me. "I've been on the fence..." followed by a big long story which absolves her of the cardinal sin of No Lynching. These were the very first things either of them posted on Day 2, which just furthers the impression that they conspired during the night in BTSC to push this story to the forefront so that the No Lynch saga can fade away quickly, as evidenced by his response.

Here is where you can take the pin out and go back to my point about Colin from earlier. Colin, of course, was the other sinner guilty of No Lynching. How do these two treat Colin on the day that he will be lynched? Llama has almost nothing to say about him rather uncritically accepts Colin's rationale for the No Lynch (which I believe he'd shared previously anyway) and then referenced him off hand a couple more times as a potential, backburner suspect. The meatiest instance came here when he listed Colin among his "weak" group of town reads in Operation: Trustfall. But, like, there's no pursuit of Colin before or after this. All the while, The Cool Guy is getting lynched. Llama mentions him zero more times until posting "RIP Colin". Mongoose, meanwhile, was openly supportive of Colin through the day (but never actively campaigned against his lynch, I might add.)

I propose that the scum team comprised of Llama and Mongoose actively conspired to keep the No Lynch discussion away from the forefront of the discussion. 1) Llama opened the day by asking Colin and Mongoose to explain themselves. 2) Mongoose's first post of the day was then a response to this question in which she shared a very thoroughly detailed story about how she came to accidentally vote for a No Lynch. 3) They both absolved not only Mongoose, but also Colin of any wrongdoing. Note the marked contrast between Night 1 Llama and Day 2 llama with regards to the no lynches. On Night 1 it was a bad thing all the time. On Day 2 it was a non-issue after the first post.

So what did these two focus on instead Day 2?
Answer: Luna & Nova. Both of them, separately, pushed the same two suspects in almost the same way. WILD, huh? Mafia need two mislynches to win the game and they have a lot of confusion and uncertainty in the thread. Mongoose was a suspect, but now that we've swept the No Lynch drama under the rug, all we need to do is push some other names to the forefront and she can fade away.

Llama & Mongoose talkin' 'bout Luna, Day 2:

Spoiler: show

I mean I threw the claim out there because I have nothing to lose from it. It's only a potential help to town. I get it looks "too convenient" but I thought it would be better than staying silent about my role. I also get that you guys don't have to believe me, but dang @Sloonei to ask for a claim and then not believe it when it shows up is a bit silly.

Having nothing to lose would be as good a reason to lie as it would be to tell the truth. If not a better reason.

@Lunalee you seem to be the closest thing to a consensus suspect right now. I’m not sure I see it, but I also don’t feel like I have enough evidence to call you a firm town read. Get in here and give us your thoughts on things please and thanks.

Also why aren’t you all voting?

Reason I'm not voting is because it is Thursday night, and I have until Saturday to decide who to vote for.

I am also surprised to be a consensus suspect. I don't see it either, but maybe I should catch up first.

I don’t care what time it is or how long we have left. Votes on the poll are data and visible action. They help. Everyone should put their votes on the player they most suspect at any time.

Based on this, I’ll go ahead and vote early too.[VOTE: luna] aubergine

Okay, so I saw this and thought it was a positive point for mongoose:

Spoiler: show

Okay, now that it's Day, I have questions.

Colin & Mongoose: Why did you vote no lynch yesterday? Be specific.

Everyone else: What is your read on Luna? I don't like how no one but me is talking about her. It feels like a "move on, nothing to see here" kind of scenario.

I’ve been on the fence on whether to be truthful about what happened with my vote (hear me out), but I’ve been very candid in this game and I want to continue that. About 45 mins before the vote ended, I decided to switch my vote to Luna, Like is said I would do when I fully picked a player to vote. I literally voted in one of the changing stalls at the yoga studio. Then I put my phone in my bag and headed to class. When I got out, I was shocked to see that the poll said I voted No Lynch. I don’t know if I failed to lock my phone and the gremlins got at it, if it’s another symptom of Mercury being in retrograde, or it just tumbled around in my gym bag with my clothes when I stuffed it into a cubby, but I didn’t intend to switch off Luna.

I mean why would I? I promised all day that I would vote for a player, and I kinda torpedoed my work day to catch up to my put myself in a position to do that. So imagine my abject horror when I saw it didn’t reflect Luna. I don’t blame you if you are skeptical of this story. I’d be too if it hadn’t happened to me.

But that’s what really happened. I won’t be doing any more no lynch votes by the way; I was kinda using it as a placeholder to make sure I wasn’t a voting non participant.

It was one of the most frustrating things I’ve experienced in a game and it was no one’s fault, but YIKES.

If you have any questions, please @ me to ensure I see it -thanks!

That being said, I don't think you would make up this story as a lie, so fine.

BUT then you later say that it's "non-alignment indicative." okay, guess I sort of missed that.

Yeah, I don't see her making up a needless lie like that. It would be easier just to own the no lynch vote and argue why it's a good vote, as many people have done successfully in the past. I don't think the fact that she didn't lie in this instance makes her necessarily good though.

Just want to throw this out there: What has Colin done in this game that scum Colin wouldn't do?

Not a fan of this question. It's like asking people to prove a negative. The burden of proof is on the town to demonstrate that lynch candidates might be bad. "You can't prove he's not bad, therefore he's bad" is a slippery, fallacious argument. The only honest answer to your question is "nothing" because baddies are capable of doing anything thta civs can do. There are, however, certain things baddies would do that civs would never do. So a better question is, What has Colin done this game that civvie Colin wouldn't do?

Personaly, I think there are a couple of answers to that, but the fact that you asked it the other way around makes me even more suspicious of you than I already was.

If juliets is telling the truth, then we either have a civilian 1-shot doublevoter and a mafia roleblocker in addition to her, or she’s the only non-vanilla role in the game.

If the former, then it might be prudent for the doublevoter to claim now. We could have two pseudo-cleared civilians instead of a single dubious cop claim. I think that would be more valuable than a single concealed double vote. The mafia roleblocker is essentially powerless now, assuming they can only block night actions.

Well okay. I'm the doublevoter.

Are we sure about that?

Okay, Sloonei, you win. Luna is faker than a plastic Christmas tree in July.

[VOTE: Luna] aubergine

And so on. You get the picture. This last one is particularly egregious, because at no point did I feel like I had pinned Luna down as scum, nor did I attempt to or suggest such a thing. Llama looks like he was trying to provoke me to vote for Luna.

Llama & Mongoose talkin' 'bout Nova, Day 2:

Spoiler: show

Ok, this is getting damn confusing.

Luna's claim: the mafia knows which configuration we're in so if we're in the cop, vanilla, vanilla they know one of them can claim double voter and get away with it. Is that what you guys (Mac, Sloon, llama) believe? It does seem like a possibility. And I did make the point earlier that Luna could have given that "bright shining civ" compliment to dunya to distance herself from a kill. But, would she have known that early in the game that they were going to kill dunya? I'm more confused about Luna than I was before the NK.

Mac and nova - I don't think Mac is mafia but is his nova and sloonei suspicion believable? I need to look at nova again and see if I feel like his Mac suspicion was made up or flowed naturally. sloonei's suspicion of me and subsequent tunneling definitely seemed off to me given my behavior as a civ over many games. I don't relish the thought of re-reading sloonei but I guess I'm going to have to. Sloonei is my tinfoil suspicion.

thellama73 what are you thinking about nova and sloonei? Do the things Mac says make sense to you?

MacDougall PLEASE don't check out. We really need you now. No one was responding to you because we were asleep not because we don't care. Please don't devolve into just trolling.

I have not felt too good about Nova from the beginning, but I don't have very much concrete to go on. I think Sloonei is civilian. Pretty much the only thing I really agree with Mac on is his suspicion of Luna. I think her claim coming as it did right after Sloonei mentioned that it would be a good idea for the doublevoter to claim, felt too convenient. She said "I have nothing to lose" which sounds to me like a baddie about to be lynched throwing a last minute hail mary. I don't think it's as sophisticated the analysis above indicates. Just desperation.

Llama's been pretty consistent with his "got pinged early" read on me. It's giving me the heebie jeebies

Do the heebiejeebies mean you think he's bad?

Not necessarily. It a negative ping though.

That seems like... an odd thing to be pinged by. But okay.

Lynch all liars?

Epignosis claims he lies all the time as a civilian, but he is weird. I generally assume that if someone is caught in a lie, they are bad. The question I'm asking myself now is whether you legitimately expected me to forget a suspicion I had less than 72 hours ago.

I don't expect you to forget it. However, I'd expect you to omit it when sharing reads especially when it's something as weak as being pinged by "Hi, I'm nova and I'm tired of losing". The contrast is too big.

Perhaps lol. I disagree though, the original ping itself (yours) is pretty weak. It's about my first comment in thread "tired to lose" that one has to milk heavily in order to extrapolate a scum read from. I feel that'd be pretty natural for someone to forget about it with how many other posts and content I have that can be analyzed for reads. Repeating it several times (especially when it's contrasted by a "I feel better about him now/recently") strikes me as being extremely self-aware to and attempt to keep consistency that isn't natural.

(and a bit of prodding Mac to bring up his nova case)
Mongoose actually doesn't have much to say about nova on Day 2, but the surrounding phases have content:

Ok thanks llama that's very helpful. Can you be more specific on what you are seeing in nova that causes you to call him bad? If you have done that and I missed it, my apologies.

Not a lot concrete. I found the initial "tired of losing" comment suspicious. Others have gone on to explain that away, but I don't know that I'm convinced. I don't like Nova's case on Mac. Very unconvincing to me. Call it a gut read if you like.

I find the latter allegation way way more persuasive than the former.

Linkcake

We've got an hour and a half left, votes ever so slightly leaning toward Colin. I support this lynch, but my mind is far from made up. If anything has any concerns about either of these wagons, or about anything else that's going on, please voice them. This is a pretty crucial lynch.

Bleeding over from yesterday, it would definitely be nova. Seems as much as a complementary team as any of the others we've postulated.

Lynch all liars?

Epignosis claims he lies all the time as a civilian, but he is weird. I generally assume that if someone is caught in a lie, they are bad. The question I'm asking myself now is whether you legitimately expected me to forget a suspicion I had less than 72 hours ago.

I don't expect you to forget it. However, I'd expect you to omit it when sharing reads especially when it's something as weak as being pinged by "Hi, I'm nova and I'm tired of losing". The contrast is too big.

Man, that was a weird ping. Whether you have lost or not seems super based in fact (and not alignment indicative).

SO, in conclusion, Llama & Mongoose spent Day 2 making sure that the No Lynch issue faded away, then pushed hard on Luna while passively allowing Colin to be lynched without dirtying their hands. Each of them have supported cases against nova at various times and have pushed him in this final phase as a primary POE target. NOW we can still believe that nova is bad, and his alignment is far from confirmed, but the amount of apparent coordination I can find in Llama and Mongoose's posts is staggering, frankly. I can't look past it. They are bad.

I did a HUGE ISO on Colin. To say I didn't campaign against his lynch is frankly disingenuous and if this was court, I'd ask it be stricken from the records for being misleading.

Overruled.

[Mongoose]

Word. I take it you were interested in how llama and/or mongoose would respond to a poll split between them?

I'll take my chances.

[Sloonei]

You ISO’s Colin, yeah, but I didn’t see you actively trying to dissuade people from voting Colin. It looked like busywork so that you could say you tried.

[Mongoose]

Word. I take it you were interested in how llama and/or mongoose would respond to a poll split between them?

Exactly. Especially Mongoose, didn't feel any sense of urgency from her yesterday with how the discussion was heading and votes piling up on her.

Look, you can disparage me all you want for "no sense of urgency" but you could have told me my house was on fire and I would not have gotten out of that bed. I took a 4-hour nap and spent most of the day in bed. I spent way too long on here Saturday, which no one seemed to give me much credit for, which completely wore me out (and okay that Saturday night party but I have a tough job okay).

[Mongoose]

You ISO’s Colin, yeah, but I didn’t see you actively trying to dissuade people from voting Colin. It looked like busywork so that you could say you tried.

Why would I even bother doing an ISO now on any of you? I spent SO much time on that. It took me 4x as long as any of you, because I am so out of practice, and then you are all just rude and saying it;s crappy work.

[Sloonei]

You ISO’s Colin, yeah, but I didn’t see you actively trying to dissuade people from voting Colin. It looked like busywork so that you could say you tried.

Why would I even bother doing an ISO now on any of you? I spent SO much time on that. It took me 4x as long as any of you, because I am so out of practice, and then you are all just rude and saying it;s crappy work.

I don’t think it was crappy work. I apologize if it came off that way. I’m saying I didn’t see you doing anything else to preserve Colin. I don’t feel like you actually cared about the Day 2 lynch result.

[thellama73]

This is a lot of posting by Mongoose, and I appreciate that she is trying to defend herself, but none of it changes the fact that she is the one person who is likely to be on every possible mafia team combination.

[Sloonei]

This is a lot of posting by Mongoose, and I appreciate that she is trying to defend herself, but none of it changes the fact that she is the one person who is likely to be on every possible mafia team combination.

But does that mean she has to be bad?

[novaselinenever]

I mean you're asking a dude that shares a baddie chat with her lol

[novaselinenever]

Tier 0

[novaselinenever]

I was really hoping Juliets finished her reading of me today. I have a few upcoming hectic days.

[MacDougall]

@novaselinenever @thellama73 @MacDougall @juliets @Mongoose could you share your strongest reason to A) town read and B) scum read each person remaining in your POE?

Sloonei: Captain Town. I'm not going to bother with a scum read. If you are mafia, I am going to be so pissed haha.

Mac: It's been in both the other games I've played (albeit very briefly) lately. It seems very different here. Get a whiff of those civ pheromones. On the other side, it's smart and wiley enough to pull off such a charade. I don't think that's likely here though.

Llama: He's been active like Sloonei, trying to sort through the nonsense to the kernel of what's going on. Comes in guns blazing, but do you really expect anything different? I think I have towncleared Llama once in a game (without using an info-gathering power, I mean). Never completely trustworthy.

Juliets: I was pretty sold on her from that top of p.4 frustrated civ read. It hasn't wavered since then.

Nova: Now this guy is a clever cat. He has walked the line between being Mr. Helpful (appreciated) and starting this antagonist brawls with Mac and then Llama that do not accomplish anything; rather they derail discussion when other folks are pulling down some serious ISOs (Juliets, SLoonei, and even Llama). I'm not saying he hasn't put in hard work too, he has, but there's this rogue element to Nova that I just don't trust. He knows how to whisper in the ear of King of Gondor and damn if he didn't get Sloonei to stand up (I think I'm mixing up the LOTR mythology here a little bit, but just go with it) and take up swords. But instead of it being against the eye of Sauron, he is now going after this little hobbit who just wants some tea and cake but is instead fighting for her life.

Fight Wormtongue, Save the Hobbit

So you are going for the Llama/Nova impossible union?

[juliets]

ok ISOing nova

I think WAY TOO MUCH has been made of his first post. I don't think it's suspicious at all.

nova responds to dunya's early post about me being bad with an "I like that" and then voted me within 4 minutes. He really doesn't know me at all so I found that suspect. Meanwhile, he responds to Mac's "This is a mafia" post (about Sloonei) with an "I don't like this". Seemed a little early to be already discounting a mafia read on Sloonei. He explains he thinks Mac is emulating supa-town Mac, throwing hot takes out there when he wasn't really pinged even tho thats what Mac always does. I don't like that he jumped so hard at dunya's early speculative read of me and gave Mac grief for doing something he always does.

Then nova posts this:

Little surge of activity from Juliet, and a lot of inquiries in a very short amount of time. Exactly what Dunya said she would expect from civ juliets.

Omoshiroi

Let’s talk about that. When she ws caught in A World Asunder, she responded by doing the exact things which it had been noted she’d not done up until that point.

didn't a world asunder have 2 mafia teams though?

How does that come into play?

if you're on a mafia team in a game with 2 mafia teams, i feel like you can authentically scum hunt itt much more easily.

Oh for sure. But the point here is that baddie!juliets had a reaction in that game similar to this game after being confronted.

He had no idea at this point what I had done in Asunder, he is just going off what Sloonei said. He seems to be looking for an easy target.

This is the first thing about Mongoose that I could find, says he has a soft spot for her.

Really liked her Mongoose stuff early on, and the later's response read to me like some appeal to emotions lol. I'm not sure I have the heart to go through with a lynch on her though, I'd feel really bad especially with her post about contemplating changing her play style.

I'm soft like that.

Now I have been soft on Mongoose all game but I am definitely not her partner. I felt obligated to at least point this out.

This was one of the earliest objections to Mac. Seems like I made the point at the time, which I'll now do again, this sounds like what Mac does in every game he plays. He doesn't really show development like nova is asking for.

Doesn't it?

A civilian can't toss out reads on day 1 to rattle cages? Can't change their mind? Basic. Do better.

They certainly can, but with a development. Changes require incentives when they're genuine. Yours have none, they're just a continuation of the bland hot takes you've been throwing around.

nova was talking up the Mac vote on Day 1 while still parked on me. I don't know what to make of this. He didn't say a word about me after the very beginning of the game, and he didn't say much then.

Don't listen to Dunya, I'm good

Vote Mac, please. Thank you.

Ok he finally came off of me when I pitched a fit at Sloonei which is more than Sloonei did so I give him town credit for that.

Stands up for me against Sloonei. Could he be bad and know that I am good? Maybe but as hard as Sloonei was pushing he could have easily just joined him.

Are we all adamant about not lynching juliets? If so I’ll switch to speedyo

Did you not read her post to your iso?

I did.

Then how could you entertain lynching her further?

Just want to point out that after that early initial good comment about Mongoose, nova was reading Mongoose as bad so that's a good look if he's bad.

Talk to me about Mongoose. We both have her as red. Bussing, mac?

On nova's pushing of Mac, he was meeting substantial resistance from dunya on his read he held firm. That reads civ for me. I would expect a baddie nova to eventually back away from this read but he's held onto it like a dog with a meaty bone.

I liked this exercise a lot. I don't see a baddie launching this because who knows where it could end up.

Let's try something, Juliets and dunya.

Let's each "lock" another player as town, and see what PoE we would get. We can't lock the same player.

I'm pretty sure he is the first to have suspicion, even if it was tinfoil.

My tinfoil suspicion is llama person. Their contribution and presence are monotone, I've find everything they've done so far is in line with the thread. Not a lot of originality or risk.

This was a good point about Luna:

I don't like how Luna's voters aren't considering the matrix episode at all.

If we had tied them up and Luna survived we wouldn't have been sure whether she won the coin toss or used her extra vote. I think nova came into the thread at the last moments when this vote was going on and just didn't think about this rather than he was bad and didn't want to clear Luna. It's still true that what we were doing was risky though and I don't blame him for pointing that out.

How exactly is it helpful to put Luna one behind?

She can save herself if she's telling the truth.
or, she has a 50% chance of saving herself.

You'd give someone a 50% to save themselves instead of 100%?

If she's telling the truth, and they're tied, she'll survive 100%. If she's lying, she'll die 50%.

I'd rather take those odds.

I liked this assessment of Sloonei's behavior after I thought about it a little while.

Neither of you have any reason to read each other as a civ.

So the 28 pages of content, our interactions of the last 7 phases do not count? We should only read each other based on this EoD and your "genius" plan? Yeah, no...

Even if I were to read Sloonei based on this EoD, I'd give him a town read. I don't see scum Sloonei being that sloppy, rather that's a sign of civ Sloonei that is hesitant. He was pretty genuine, and there is absolutely no motive for him to refuse to go along or hesitate with a plan landing him a mislynch anyway. Your believes of Mafia afraid of a "townconfirmed" are greatly exaggerated.

Ok I'm a little more than halfway through nova so I'm going to end this post because it's getting long. I probably won't be able to post more until late this afteroon. On balance, I haven't seen enough to call him bad. I'm not wild about his Mac tunneling but Mac was doing the same thing to him. I think it's civ on civ, though if they are both bad kudos to them for such effective distancing. If Mongoose is bad, I think it's a good look for him because he started on her early and was consistent at least through what I have read so far. It did not feel like bussing to me.

[juliets]

Also, juliets come back and answer my question from forever ago. Who are your two picks for the mafia right now?

I'm waiting to hear from Mongoose on the questions I asked her, especially about the post that looks like it could be a slip, but I would say I suspect you and her more than I suspect her and nova. It just seemed like you were in concert with each other at various times in the game. I really need to hear from her though to tell you how solid I am on that read of you two. I need all the puzzle pieces I can get.

On the other hand, I'm still a little bothered about why I didn't die (the tinfoil part of me). If you (or anyone) was bad why take out Luna over me? She isn't participating much and her power was obviously gone. Did she die because of her reads? Is it because I seemed pliant and she didn't seem like someone you could talk into suspecting someone else? Can anyone tell me why they think she got the axe and not me? Another question along this line: why are sloonei and nova still alive? I hate asking these questions but paranoia over the NK is killing me. Maybe I just need sleep.

Maybe they killed luna so you'd start asking yourself these questions.

I guess it seems like to me everyone who's not mafia should have the question in their mind "why Luna?" They picked her for a reason, else why not take out the civ who is trying to help solve the game.

Killing luna on Night 2 is frankly so predictable that I am dumbfounded that folks think a Mongoose/Llama team would consider something so basic.

It seems to me that killing me on Night 2 would have been the predictable move because I was participating all through the night and Luna was dormant. Luna was a surprise pick.

[juliets]

@ you've talked about nova most of the day. I'm interested in your reads on everybody else now.

I also talked a lot about Mongoose during the day. I am confident that she and Nova are bad. I agree that Juliets is a confirmed civ. I looked hard for evidence of you being bad and didn't find it. It is remotely possible that Mac is bad, but I don't believe he is. Everyone else is dead.

Walk me through mac and mongoose reads.

Okay, my Mongoose read is basically based around her being blendy for the whole game. No strong reads, no strong cases, lots of wishy-washiness, lots of excuses, and most of all an eagerness to please when called out. She has cited your wishes as a reason to "do better", which I find suspicious. She seems very eager to look good and play into expectations. She mentioned modifying her playstyle early on. I find that weird. I don't modify my playstyle. She has been coasting and failing to ruffle any feathers, even when she comes under suspicion. She plays more defense than offense, which I associate with baddies because saying "I'm not bad" is easier than making a fake case on someone you know to be good. Also, the tone of a few of her posts has seemed contrived and inauthentic to me.

As for Mac, it's the exact opposite. He came in guns a blazing, not afraid to throw out "I'm positive x is bad" reads all over the place. He appears to have no concern about drawing attention to himself or trying to cover himself should he turn out to be wrong about anything. He throws caution to the wind. A particularly bold and confident baddie could potentially pull this off, but it's incredibly hard to do convincingly. If his teammate is Nova, then he has an ability to conjure up fake outrage and energy that I have rarely seen. If he is bad, I think Mongoose is more likely to be his teammate for this reason.

I'm having trouble turning my brain off. llama can you think of a game on this site where Mongoose was bad? I feel the need to see a comparison. Or a game where she was good - I can look to see if she is pounding out reads and making cases. You're right that she's blendy, and has an eagerness to please (which I associate strongly with Mongoose the person). I understand you associating playing more defense than offense with a baddie style but is it a Mongoose baddie style? I want to see that in action if possible.

I thiiiink I was bad in a game with Dev and Russti - Super Mario, probably in 2013. We won. I was also a baddie in the Six Feet Under with SVS and Sorsha. We did not win. Also around 2013.

Thanks Mongoose.

[juliets]

Ok ugh. Mongoose sounds so sincere to me. I will go back in her ISO and look for her to be begging people to explain something whether it's MYLO/LYLO or something else. I don't remember anything offhand but I need to look.

My brain is fried. I'm checking out and will start reading nova in the morning after I check Mongoose's ISO.

Look through just the first few pages for it. If I have time, I'll find it later tonight when I'm done with this work out.

Mongoose, I looked through the first two pages of your ISO and couldn't find you begging for an explanation for anything. You don't have to do it tonight but I would appreciate your showing me the post you're talking about.

I will look, but it might be in one of the other two games I briefly played, and that's why we can't find it.

Ok. Do you understand why I'm having a problem with it? I'm afraid it's something you said in bts and just got confused and thought you had done it in this thread.

[novaselinenever]

[Sloonei]

Just checkin’ in to say I feel abundantly confident in this thing.

[novaselinenever]

Me too!

[novaselinenever]

I'm getting paranoid

[novaselinenever]

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] You here?

[thellama73]

This is a lot of posting by Mongoose, and I appreciate that she is trying to defend herself, but none of it changes the fact that she is the one person who is likely to be on every possible mafia team combination.

But does that mean she has to be bad?

She has to be bad unless you are, juliets is, or Nova and Mac are the best baddie team ever.

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei You here?

What’s up bae?

[thellama73]

I think WAY TOO MUCH has been made of his first post. I don't think it's suspicious at all.

Agreed, but I want to point out that I only mentioned it casually a few times. It got made into a thing when Nova got all up in my grill for mentioning it casually a few times and then we had to go back and forth about it for infinity. But I am happy to drop it now.