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Inception [Inception Phase 4]

Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2019 3:27 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Image

This is reality. Everything before was a dream.

You have awakened to a paradise of your own construction. This is home. Your reality is here now, and what came before is forgotten.

The rules that govern this dream are [mostly] like they were in the first.

There will again be a public voting poll. You must place your votes in the poll AND call them in the thread using the vote tag. The poll is official.


NOTE: You are still prohibited from revealing any private vote you placed at any point in any place. This rule will extend throughout the remainder of the game.

Role claiming and revealing role-related information remain illegal.

Subconscious Phase 4 begins and will last 48 hours from the time this thread is opened.

Re: Inception

Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2019 3:39 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
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All individual role actions cost 1 role point at this level.
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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:00 pm
by Sloonei
Image
You cannot get over how comfortable this air trip has been.
The service has been impeccable. They've catered to your every need.
It's as though you're the only passenger on the aircraft.
Why isn't it always like this?
You feel a sudden pinch into your shoulder. As you turn to react, you're already dropping into darkness.

ColinIsCool and Pawn Leloch were kicked from the previous dream.
It is Subconscious Phase 4. You have 48 hours to lynch somebody.

NOTE: Private voting is NO LONGER in effect! You must now place your votes in the poll and call them in the thread! The poll is official. You are still prohibited from revealing any past private votes.

Players occupying this location:
[mention]Evenstar[/mention]
[mention]Master Radishes[/mention]
[mention]sprityo[/mention]

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:07 pm
by Evenstar
Well, fuck.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:07 pm
by Master Radishes
Lmao

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:10 pm
by Evenstar
hey radishes

I see we have descended to a new level of hell where the votes are real but we can't goddamn use them

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:11 pm
by Master Radishes
Well this will be something.

It's after 11 here, so I bid you both good night.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:12 pm
by Evenstar
cool

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:14 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Votes are changeable. There are no limitations to this.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:14 pm
by Evenstar
so,

pawn is the scum kill, right?

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:18 pm
by Evenstar
wish I'd saved epi's notes

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:00 pm
by Evenstar
... okay,

so.

My gut is yelling that Radishes is the correct lynch here. Between the vaguely-scummy mid-poster who's pushed me a couple times for bad reasons and the low-poster who had that outburst in D2 and seems to be doing their best to contribute and solve, I should be lynching the first one every time.

But this is final 3.

So I'm probably wrong, or else MLbait.

I'm not MLbait, so I'm wrong.

[VOTE: Sprityo] aubergine

I did a bunch of NKA but it turned out to be a waste of damn time: pretty much anybody would want to break up the townbloc, and Pawn was by far the least likely to be docced.

:sigh:

I wish Rabbit was here.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:02 pm
by Evenstar
And while I'm wishing for things I would also like a pony and for this to not be my first F3 ever in mafia. Nerves are a bitch.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:07 pm
by Evenstar
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:14 pm Votes are changeable. There are no limitations to this.
thanks for giving me this at least

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:25 pm
by sprityo
Fancy seeing you Guys here

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:26 pm
by sprityo
Evenstar wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:14 pm so,

pawn is the scum kill, right?
I actually agree with this. Or I at least it’s very likely

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:27 pm
by sprityo
Evenstar wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:02 pm And while I'm wishing for things I would also like a pony and for this to not be my first F3 ever in mafia. Nerves are a bitch.
This is mine. Ever.

Only because I don’t count CC123 since that was a Free For All

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:49 pm
by sprityo
So between the option of Radishes who I haven’t tried to scrutinize. The man who was drawing a lot of different view points from everyone yesterday (and I think day 2 as well?). Points of interest I remember about Radishes was his and Pawn’s “You’re copying me” type deal with reads

By all means I would be the one lynched here since Evenstar and Radihes have the same reads. But if mafia is picking who goes where...then that would be what they want and too easy. I’m going to apply Occam’s Razor and go with that’s the case.

Radishes seemed to have pretty consistent reads from what I can remember as well. As in they didn’t change if at all. Evenstar is going to be a bag of cats to dissect-
———-——————————

Evenstar has a rocky Day 1 and toned it down Day 2, day 3 even more so. This was due to being aggressive and pushing for a something she believed in and acting as if it was fact. Much to the ire of a lot of people. It happened twice before Mac? (can’t remember) brought it to light. Either this was Evenstars “oh yeah” moment and decided to shift play styles. If she realized she couldn’t powerball the game with simple aggression.

This reflected negatively in my mind for that first two phases. Again, the Mac push, the Nutella push, and the most interesting was after I rage quit and the end of Day 2. I learned a new term with this game, AtE. I’m pretty sure Evenstar used it first on Day 1 towards Nutella. If anything her and rabbit both stepped back after my outburst of Anger and frustration and called me Town. Rabbit would then go back on this day 3 but they aren’t here right now. (And I’m sure if they were this would be a whole nother ballgame.)

Back to what I was saying though, Evenstar is someone I’ve had my eye on more so than anyone else this game. So a flip to vote me now based off of second guessing isn’t selling it to me. She’s playing the half and half card right now.

Going back to last phase I don’t remember Evenstar being omnipresent, taking a step back as you will. The only thing I noticed her do was the weird “rabbit is totally confirmed doublevoter guys” to which I just....asked like two questions that broke the whole theory. That whole situation was weird. Was it a mistake? Was it trying to get in rabbit’s good side? Was it a poor attempt at getting Town credit? Was it s poor attempt at getting pressure off a fellow mafia member?

There’s a lot of inconsistencies in how Evenstar has played this game that makes me go :ponder: and myself as a player now more than ever can’t let emotions get in the way.

I look forward to Radishes input when he’s here. I look forward to some banter with Evenstar when she checks in. :beer:

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:50 pm
by sprityo
I will not be voting at this time since I don’t think it does anything to help. It creates pressure when I don’t need to be putting pressure on anyone.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:52 pm
by sprityo
My last noodle of information is why are we here? Why ya three

And not Dom, or Epi, or Rabbit, or Jack? Why us three?

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:03 pm
by sprityo
sprityo wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:26 pm
Evenstar wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:14 pm so,

pawn is the scum kill, right?
I actually agree with this. Or I at least it’s very likely
Actually I change my mind. Pawn was the lynch and Colin was the kill.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am
by Evenstar
[mention]sprityo[/mention]
Frankly, it really goes against my instincts to be voting you right now. Radishes is inconsistent and wobbly, pushed me for stupid reasons, and accepted that the spiny post cleared me way too easily. I think, in my heart of hearts, even as I am voting you, that he's the scum here. I'm stomping on it 'cause I'm at lylo and therefore I am wrong.

Frankly, I don't really want to argue motives, becuse that's inherently a sea of wine. Nonetheless, I'll try and engage your points.

1: I was highly aggressive early on and it took Mac calling me out to get me to dial back. Sure, fine, fair. That is in fact my playstyle, and of course I tried to dial it back when the person who invited me told me to cut it back.

I've actually recieved moderator warnings on three different forums now regarding letting my pressure turn into personal attacks, so... yeah, I'm trying to be less of a bitch.

2: Day 2 and 3 were a pain in my ass for multiple reasons, primarily because my playstyle tends towards "shoving people hard and seeing if they break." Not being able to make it clear I was voting for someone made me feel like I was punching at air, and the general sense of disconnection and discomfort was infectious. I got stressed enough by beong stuck with the weird unexpected hidden vote ruleset to call Dom a dick and an asshole on Day 3, which I regretted pretty much instantly.

3: Honestly, given that Pawn missed the same thing I did regarding the doublevoter, I think you're overestimating how obvious the flaw was.

4: Yeah, there are probably a lot of inconsistencies. I'm an inconsistent person. I get why this may be a natural argument for you, but I really advise you against treating it as AI.

5: On consideration, I would say I'm here because I'm one of like two people who genuinely townread you, and Radishes is here because he pushed me as scum yesterday. I'm a little surprised that it's not Dom instead of Radishes, but I think in that case you might be too much of an obvious odd-man-out given our respective posting styles.

In the case where it's Radishes scum, then you're here because you're the lowest poster that's not Colin and I'm here because the scum know about my strat of flipping my reads at LyLo.

6: Please walk me through how Pawn gets lynched over Colin, because I really don't see it.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:31 am
by sprityo
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am 6: Please walk me through how Pawn gets lynched over Colin, because I really don't see it.
I know you literally just said that you dont really see it, and I have the argument prepared, but i actually need you to tell me first.

Odd, I know. But i want to see one more time if you can figure out why I think that.

Why would I think Pawn got lynched over colin?

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:39 am
by sprityo
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am In the case where it's Radishes scum, then you're here because you're the lowest poster that's not Colin and I'm here because the scum know about my strat of flipping my reads at LyLo.
also this....why would this be a strategy. especially one that could so heavily be relied on by people you know.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:44 am
by sprityo
let rephrase "a strategy so easily exploitable"

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:52 am
by Evenstar
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:31 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am 6: Please walk me through how Pawn gets lynched over Colin, because I really don't see it.
I know you literally just said that you dont really see it, and I have the argument prepared, but i actually need you to tell me first.

Odd, I know. But i want to see one more time if you can figure out why I think that.

Why would I think Pawn got lynched over colin?
I can think of a bunch of options, ranging from "you're scum and know that to be the case" to "you did a more up-to-date tally than the one I saw, and the results suggested a Pawn lynch was more plausible than a Colin lynch." Going by stated votes, it was pretty much a crapshoot IIRC: while I acknowledge that it's possible Pawn drew the short straw, I was defending him and pushing Epi at EOD, and my opinion ought to have counted for something.

Basically, I don't see how y'all end up lynching Pawn - an active player being pretty strongly townread by both me and rabbit - over a nothing player with like a dozen posts in the dayphase. I especially don't see why he'd get lynched and then Colin would get killed. I would've expected a kill on me, Rabbit or Epi in that case.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:02 am
by sprityo
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:52 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:31 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am 6: Please walk me through how Pawn gets lynched over Colin, because I really don't see it.
I know you literally just said that you dont really see it, and I have the argument prepared, but i actually need you to tell me first.

Odd, I know. But i want to see one more time if you can figure out why I think that.

Why would I think Pawn got lynched over colin?
I can think of a bunch of options, ranging from "you're scum and know that to be the case" to "you did a more up-to-date tally than the one I saw, and the results suggested a Pawn lynch was more plausible than a Colin lynch." Going by stated votes, it was pretty much a crapshoot IIRC: while I acknowledge that it's possible Pawn drew the short straw, I was defending him and pushing Epi at EOD, and my opinion ought to have counted for something.

Basically, I don't see how y'all end up lynching Pawn - an active player being pretty strongly townread by both me and rabbit - over a nothing player with like a dozen posts in the dayphase. I especially don't see why he'd get lynched and then Colin would get killed. I would've expected a kill on me, Rabbit or Epi in that case.
So as you pointed out yesterday, compiling the votes and posting it was illegal, but i'm sure there's no problem with me keeping a personal counter of it. Without referencing it directly. Same as how Epi was able to pull some of his posts earlier.

So if you take out Dom, who never publicly said a 3 list, at least not to my knowledge. No one suspected Evenstar. Not a single player had you in their pool. Pawn had the most potential votes when looking at the pools.

if you could divide the pool in half to see who was likely to be lynched and who wasnt it'd be, it'd look like:

Colin, Epi, Evenstar, iaafr, Radish / Dom, Jack, Pawn, Sprityo

What i'm getting at is in a world where everyone was honest of where they were potentially voting. Colin would NEVER had beat Pawn in the lynch poll.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:06 am
by Master Radishes
Well. Okay.. F'n F3s are the worst. I've only ever been in two and both ended up being 'obvious'.

Fortunately, I really feel this one is as well.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:06 am
by Evenstar
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:39 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am In the case where it's Radishes scum, then you're here because you're the lowest poster that's not Colin and I'm here because the scum know about my strat of flipping my reads at LyLo.
also this....why would this be a strategy. especially one that could so heavily be relied on by people you know.
I'm always SPK'd before LyLo on my homesite, so it's not like there's a lot of history. The only players here I'd expect to know enough to expect this would be Pawn and Mac, neither of whom are present at the moment.

Also, why are you assuming I'm gonna just deathtunnel you? This is a starting point. Might be right, might be wrong. The point is to break from my established reads and really try to see the game with new eyes.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:08 am
by sprityo
Fair enough, fresh eyes are important. Though you can't blame me for worrying about you tunneling.

also what is SPK stand for?

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:12 am
by Evenstar
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:02 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:52 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:31 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am 6: Please walk me through how Pawn gets lynched over Colin, because I really don't see it.
I know you literally just said that you dont really see it, and I have the argument prepared, but i actually need you to tell me first.

Odd, I know. But i want to see one more time if you can figure out why I think that.

Why would I think Pawn got lynched over colin?
I can think of a bunch of options, ranging from "you're scum and know that to be the case" to "you did a more up-to-date tally than the one I saw, and the results suggested a Pawn lynch was more plausible than a Colin lynch." Going by stated votes, it was pretty much a crapshoot IIRC: while I acknowledge that it's possible Pawn drew the short straw, I was defending him and pushing Epi at EOD, and my opinion ought to have counted for something.

Basically, I don't see how y'all end up lynching Pawn - an active player being pretty strongly townread by both me and rabbit - over a nothing player with like a dozen posts in the dayphase. I especially don't see why he'd get lynched and then Colin would get killed. I would've expected a kill on me, Rabbit or Epi in that case.
So as you pointed out yesterday, compiling the votes and posting it was illegal, but i'm sure there's no problem with me keeping a personal counter of it. Without referencing it directly. Same as how Epi was able to pull some of his posts earlier.

So if you take out Dom, who never publicly said a 3 list, at least not to my knowledge. No one suspected Evenstar. Not a single player had you in their pool. Pawn had the most potential votes when looking at the pools.

if you could divide the pool in half to see who was likely to be lynched and who wasnt it'd be, it'd look like:

Colin, Epi, Evenstar, iaafr, Radish / Dom, Jack, Pawn, Sprityo

What i'm getting at is in a world where everyone was honest of where they were potentially voting. Colin would NEVER had beat Pawn in the lynch poll.
Huh. That's weird, because my spreadsheet says Colin was edging out Pawn and the main race was between you and Jack.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:13 am
by sprityo
I won't make that a big point. It's more so interesting. Situational Awareness if you will.

So then if we are to believe that this is reality, why did the mafia kill Colin?

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:14 am
by sprityo
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:12 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:02 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:52 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:31 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am 6: Please walk me through how Pawn gets lynched over Colin, because I really don't see it.
I know you literally just said that you dont really see it, and I have the argument prepared, but i actually need you to tell me first.

Odd, I know. But i want to see one more time if you can figure out why I think that.

Why would I think Pawn got lynched over colin?
I can think of a bunch of options, ranging from "you're scum and know that to be the case" to "you did a more up-to-date tally than the one I saw, and the results suggested a Pawn lynch was more plausible than a Colin lynch." Going by stated votes, it was pretty much a crapshoot IIRC: while I acknowledge that it's possible Pawn drew the short straw, I was defending him and pushing Epi at EOD, and my opinion ought to have counted for something.

Basically, I don't see how y'all end up lynching Pawn - an active player being pretty strongly townread by both me and rabbit - over a nothing player with like a dozen posts in the dayphase. I especially don't see why he'd get lynched and then Colin would get killed. I would've expected a kill on me, Rabbit or Epi in that case.
So as you pointed out yesterday, compiling the votes and posting it was illegal, but i'm sure there's no problem with me keeping a personal counter of it. Without referencing it directly. Same as how Epi was able to pull some of his posts earlier.

So if you take out Dom, who never publicly said a 3 list, at least not to my knowledge. No one suspected Evenstar. Not a single player had you in their pool. Pawn had the most potential votes when looking at the pools.

if you could divide the pool in half to see who was likely to be lynched and who wasnt it'd be, it'd look like:

Colin, Epi, Evenstar, iaafr, Radish / Dom, Jack, Pawn, Sprityo

What i'm getting at is in a world where everyone was honest of where they were potentially voting. Colin would NEVER had beat Pawn in the lynch poll.
Huh. That's weird, because my spreadsheet says Colin was edging out Pawn and the main race was between you and Jack.
I did miss the last couple hours. So unless you can explain to me what happened to turn it around at the last second, I'll believe my theory

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:15 am
by Evenstar
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:08 am Fair enough, fresh eyes are important. Though you can't blame me for worrying about you tunneling.

also what is SPK stand for?
Strong Player Kill. I'm known to be good at mafia, therefore scum make sure I don't get to LyLo.

Y'all here at Syndicate seem to have not gotten the hint. Which is... nice, I guess?

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:15 am
by sprityo
While this is also a moot point, I wanted to ask [mention]Master Radishes[/mention] what he thinks about Evenstar and Myself since we've already done a short bit

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:16 am
by sprityo
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:15 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:08 am Fair enough, fresh eyes are important. Though you can't blame me for worrying about you tunneling.

also what is SPK stand for?
Strong Player Kill. I'm known to be good at mafia, therefore scum make sure I don't get to LyLo.

Y'all here at Syndicate seem to have not gotten the hint. Which is... nice, I guess?
How fortunate for you. I'm only alive due to the nature of the game im sure. I am not what you call a Strong Player

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:17 am
by sprityo
also [mention]Evenstar[/mention] if your graph is correct, then it's still the same question, of why did mafia want pawn dead, and we can assume that his failed lynch was why he was killed.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:18 am
by sprityo
not graph, notes on lynches :fist:

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:19 am
by Evenstar
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:14 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:12 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:02 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:52 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:31 am
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am 6: Please walk me through how Pawn gets lynched over Colin, because I really don't see it.
I know you literally just said that you dont really see it, and I have the argument prepared, but i actually need you to tell me first.

Odd, I know. But i want to see one more time if you can figure out why I think that.

Why would I think Pawn got lynched over colin?
I can think of a bunch of options, ranging from "you're scum and know that to be the case" to "you did a more up-to-date tally than the one I saw, and the results suggested a Pawn lynch was more plausible than a Colin lynch." Going by stated votes, it was pretty much a crapshoot IIRC: while I acknowledge that it's possible Pawn drew the short straw, I was defending him and pushing Epi at EOD, and my opinion ought to have counted for something.

Basically, I don't see how y'all end up lynching Pawn - an active player being pretty strongly townread by both me and rabbit - over a nothing player with like a dozen posts in the dayphase. I especially don't see why he'd get lynched and then Colin would get killed. I would've expected a kill on me, Rabbit or Epi in that case.
So as you pointed out yesterday, compiling the votes and posting it was illegal, but i'm sure there's no problem with me keeping a personal counter of it. Without referencing it directly. Same as how Epi was able to pull some of his posts earlier.

So if you take out Dom, who never publicly said a 3 list, at least not to my knowledge. No one suspected Evenstar. Not a single player had you in their pool. Pawn had the most potential votes when looking at the pools.

if you could divide the pool in half to see who was likely to be lynched and who wasnt it'd be, it'd look like:

Colin, Epi, Evenstar, iaafr, Radish / Dom, Jack, Pawn, Sprityo

What i'm getting at is in a world where everyone was honest of where they were potentially voting. Colin would NEVER had beat Pawn in the lynch poll.
Huh. That's weird, because my spreadsheet says Colin was edging out Pawn and the main race was between you and Jack.
I did miss the last couple hours. So unless you can explain to me what happened to turn it around at the last second, I'll believe my theory
Mine might be the out of date one, it's not timestamped and I don't know when I did it beyond "after the one you posted in thread because I felt like yours was out of date, but before EoD." I'd give you my exact numbers, but that would be against the rules.
:sigh:

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:22 am
by Evenstar
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:17 am also @Evenstar if your graph is correct, then it's still the same question, of why did mafia want pawn dead, and we can assume that his failed lynch was why he was killed.
It seems pretty clear the mafia wanted to break up the towncore of me/pawn/rabbit and therefore pushed/killed the weak link. What's your hypothesis?

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:24 am
by sprityo
Well, moving on then. I don't think it'd help for us to speculate on who would kill pawn/colin. The closet, MAYBE I would get is if Evenstar still had pawn in her lynch pool by EOD. That would be the closet thing. Killing colin wouldve been more so a throw away point given that the lynch wasnt revealed at EOD. Mafia can use that to their advantage technically.
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:22 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:17 am also @Evenstar if your graph is correct, then it's still the same question, of why did mafia want pawn dead, and we can assume that his failed lynch was why he was killed.
It seems pretty clear the mafia wanted to break up the towncore of me/pawn/rabbit and therefore pushed/killed the weak link. What's your hypothesis?
I think mafia is looking for an easy lynch

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 am
by sprityo
Open Question:

What's the Singular biggest reason to Town read the other two players

And what is the Singular biggest reason to read them Mafia?

I'll be doing mine

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:32 am
by Master Radishes
Let's start with me.
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am @sprityo
Frankly, it really goes against my instincts to be voting you right now. Radishes is inconsistent and wobbly, pushed me for stupid reasons, and accepted that the spiny post cleared me way too easily. I think, in my heart of hearts, even as I am voting you, that he's the scum here. I'm stomping on it 'cause I'm at lylo and therefore I am wrong.
sprityo wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:49 pm So between the option of Radishes who I haven’t tried to scrutinize. The man who was drawing a lot of different view points from everyone yesterday (and I think day 2 as well?). Points of interest I remember about Radishes was his and Pawn’s “You’re copying me” type deal with reads

By all means I would be the one lynched here since Evenstar and Radihes have the same reads. But if mafia is picking who goes where...then that would be what they want and too easy. I’m going to apply Occam’s Razor and go with that’s the case.

Radishes seemed to have pretty consistent reads from what I can remember as well. As in they didn’t change if at all. Evenstar is going to be a bag of cats to dissect
So the two real points against me appear to be my 'wobbly and inconsistent' play (what does that even mean?) and my 'pretty consistent reads' (which isn't true).

My play has been the same since the beginning; any wobbliness comes from three things:
(a) adapting my gameplay to the non-voting/non-rereading mechanics
(b) unfamiliarity with me/my meta
(c) the fact I never truly let go of my scum!Evenstar read and was trying to work around it

My reads did change:
(i) Jack went from mild SR to mild TR to strong SR (bottom 3) to strong TR
(ii) Colin went from TR to a bottom 3 SR
(iii) Epi went from SR to TR
(iv) Sprityo went from SR to uncertain TR
...etc. Rabbit was a strong TR throughout, but beyond that everything was in flux to some extent.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:37 am
by Evenstar
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:24 am Well, moving on then. I don't think it'd help for us to speculate on who would kill pawn/colin. The closet, MAYBE I would get is if Evenstar still had pawn in her lynch pool by EOD. That would be the closet thing. Killing colin wouldve been more so a throw away point given that the lynch wasnt revealed at EOD. Mafia can use that to their advantage technically.
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:22 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:17 am also @Evenstar if your graph is correct, then it's still the same question, of why did mafia want pawn dead, and we can assume that his failed lynch was why he was killed.
It seems pretty clear the mafia wanted to break up the towncore of me/pawn/rabbit and therefore pushed/killed the weak link. What's your hypothesis?
I think mafia is looking for an easy lynch
- that does seem to be the case in either world, yes! Either they kill Pawn to break up the town core, or they kill Colin because he's apparently actually a hard lynch?

...why not kill Radishes, though? My data says basically nobody seriously suspected him at dayend yesterday.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:40 am
by Master Radishes
Aaaaand a bunch more posts. :fist:

It's 6:30am here and I need to leave for work soon. It's a full day of teaching for me, no real breaks start to finish, so I'm going to have to keep it to cliffs notes versions for now. We have a day and a half still.


Evenstar - everything I'm seeing looks the opposite of the town!Eva I've seen. I've never played with her, and it's different to watch from spec chat, but she looks...uncertain. Also, the Nook and potentially Pawn kills fit her meta perfectly. And lest we forget her D1 vote at 3 mins remaining nearly prevented Drago being lynched. The big point against this theory is if Spiny spewed her Mason, but without access to the main thread I can't check.

Sprityo - has been laying low and is now suddenly here and active, which is nagl for anyone. D1-D3 posting left me uninspired. Emotional outbursts can be faked. The big point against this case is that he's also shown a propensity to be much more insightful than his low-posting would indicate, such as countering theories with logical points others had missed, and how this round his biggest post ^^ showed me he's been paying much more attention than I realised.


I won't 'hide' the fact that I am still leaning towards Evenstar as scum. But I suppose in F3 due diligence is needed, so I'll duly and diligently try to see the opposite world.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:43 am
by Master Radishes
Re: who the kill was, in what world do scum kill Colin? He's such ML bait. And I suspect townies voting privately second-guess themselves and vote 'safe', making colin the more likely choice. Also, the scum, who are likely few in number, likely aren't bold enough to vote Pawn considering suspicion had cooled.

Don't get me wrong, the Pawn kill doesn't make much sense either. But the Colin kill makes less. Ergo Colin = lynch, Pawn = MK

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:46 am
by Master Radishes
Evenstar wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:22 am
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:17 am also @Evenstar if your graph is correct, then it's still the same question, of why did mafia want pawn dead, and we can assume that his failed lynch was why he was killed.
It seems pretty clear the mafia wanted to break up the towncore of me/pawn/rabbit and therefore pushed/killed the weak link. What's your hypothesis?
If I'm scum and there's a towncore I want to break up, I don't MK the weakest link, I MK the strongest.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:49 am
by Master Radishes
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 am Open Question:

What's the Singular biggest reason to Town read the other two players

And what is the Singular biggest reason to read them Mafia?

I'll be doing mine
Kind of did this above ^ but will do it again in brief.

Town!Eva = Spinyboo's Mason as per *that* post
Scum!Eva = overall passive and uncertain play

Town!Sprit = insightful posts that show townie thought process
Scum!Sprit = macro-level play is uninspiring; has been laying low

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:51 am
by Evenstar
sprityo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 am Open Question:

What's the Singular biggest reason to Town read the other two players

And what is the Singular biggest reason to read them Mafia?

I'll be doing mine
You're town because you're the quiet obvious mislynch bait in a final 3.

Radishes is town because Rabbit and Pawn both read him town, and then Pawn got killed.

You're scum because all your major contributions are information collection, not analysis.

Radishes is scum because... in Pawn-lynch world, because he's not dead. In Pawn-kill world, because he's a much more plausible partner to Epi than you.

Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 4]

Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:54 am
by Evenstar
No, that's not even right, the Doublevoter thing was a good piece of analysis.