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Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:40 am
by Gavial
Also Esooa talked to creature again when creature said that.
So like....
There is legit 50% Esooa Traitor and 50% No Traitor
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:41 am
by Gavial
Although I think it’s more like 60% Esooa and 40% No Traitor
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:42 am
by Gavial
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:39 am
Gavial wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:38 am
Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:08 am
Thinking would be better we all lose than see someone here win as traitor.
Yeah... there is Definitely a traitor because the 2 kills don’t really make sense as RNG.
Evidently the kills were never rng. They're a spectator.
Wait a spectator chooses the kills if there is no traitor?
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:42 am
by MacDougall
Gavial wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:41 am
Although I think it’s more like 60% Esooa and 40% No Traitor
I fear you may be right.
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:42 am
by MacDougall
Gavial wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:42 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:39 am
Gavial wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:38 am
Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:08 am
Thinking would be better we all lose than see someone here win as traitor.
Yeah... there is Definitely a traitor because the 2 kills don’t really make sense as RNG.
Evidently the kills were never rng. They're a spectator.
Wait a spectator chooses the kills if there is no traitor?
Lol. Yes that's what it says.
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:38 pm
by Esooa
me and wiml are going to start connecting data/thinking of ideas for mafia related articles to write together. I am excited
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:38 pm
by Esooa
oh and I am town
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:07 pm
by Made
imo, it's not Esooa, if there is it's Mac or Gavial.
If there is a trator, they want us to vote sleep, but they don't want to seem too eagar to vote sleep. Gav and Mac both fit that MO
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:25 pm
by MacDougall
Made wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:07 pm
imo, it's not Esooa, if there is it's Mac or Gavial.
If there is a trator, they want us to vote sleep, but they don't want to seem too eagar to vote sleep. Gav and Mac both fit that MO
You don't even go here!
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:26 pm
by Alison
I wanted to write a flavor post but I am tired and out of energy.
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:26 pm
by Alison
You guys won since there is no Traitor. Nanook was controlling the NKs.
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 2]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:51 pm
by Esooa
Esooa wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:36 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:35 am
Esooa wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:31 am
well if you're town mafia is proibably lomo or no one
why is LC, Creature etc. etc. etc. town?
easy tone reads. Only thing creature has done is show up EoD1 and actually care. The rest are just easy reads though tbh
@MacDougall
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:55 pm
by Esooa
dab
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:06 pm
by Alison
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:06 pm
by MacDougall
Hooray!
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:07 pm
by MacDougall
Look @Gavial we chose right.
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:07 pm
by MacDougall
Tsk tsk tryna throw by voting for ppl.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:19 pm
by Creature
Oh cool we did it. I was kinda afraid you'd all go for Esooa who I was obviously reading as town.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:19 pm
by Creature
Wished I had read the book beforehand so I could better enjoy the flavor.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:33 am
by CRichard
Oh cool everyone wins?
My mis elimination was unfortunate, but hey a win is a win.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:38 am
by Creature
Sucks not being townier than the rest of the town
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:39 am
by CRichard
Creature wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:38 am
Sucks not being townier than the rest of the town
Feels Bad Man.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:40 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Nice job everyone
Literally
Re: 1984 Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:04 am
by Gavial
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:40 am
Nice job everyone
Literally
Aren’t you Traitor?
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:05 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
[VOTE:
JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:49 am
by nutella
Cool stuff
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:14 am
by Marluxion
this was a game
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:17 am
by falcon45ca
We won?
We won!!
Thanks for not listening to me errybody
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:44 am
by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
It's pretty much always correct to sleep d3, good job with the win
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:56 am
by Long Con
Oh wow, that's great! What a happy ending.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:41 pm
by Seanzie
This is exactly what the traitor would say...
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:37 pm
by Long Con
Alison has approved these game banners!
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:42 pm
by CRichard
Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:41 pm
This is exactly what the traitor would say...
It aged well for sure LUL.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:03 pm
by CRichard
Marluxion wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:14 am
this was a game
Sorry you got mis eliminated D1 Marl.
At least we won, that's what matters and yeah this game had activity problem.
Which sucks to say the least.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:26 am
by Creature
I've done some calculations on how to make a balanced game by random:
If town correctly assumes there's a traitor, their chance to win would be: (1 - 10/11 x 8/9 x 6/7 x 4/5) = 103/231. While if town correctly assumes there's no traitor, their chance to win is exactly 1. Therefore, assuming p is the chance for the setup to be traitorless and 1 - p is the chance there's a traitor:
(1 - p) x 103/231 = p x 1
103/231 - 103/231 x p = p
103/231 = 334/231 x p
p = 103/334
Therefore, the ideal distribution would be: 103/334 (30.84%) for traitorless and 231/335 (69.16%) for traitor setup. So if town ever settles on always sleeping D3, their EV will be 103/334 (30.84%). If town, on the other hand chooses to never sleep D3, their EV will be: 231/334 x 103/231 = 103/334 (30.84%).
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:11 am
by Long Con
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:26 am
I've done some calculations on how to make a balanced game by random:
If town correctly assumes there's a traitor, their chance to win would be: (1 - 10/11 x 8/9 x 6/7 x 4/5) = 103/231. While if town correctly assumes there's no traitor, their chance to win is exactly 1. Therefore, assuming p is the chance for the setup to be traitorless and 1 - p is the chance there's a traitor:
(1 - p) x 103/231 = p x 1
103/231 - 103/231 x p = p
103/231 = 334/231 x p
p = 103/334
Therefore, the ideal distribution would be: 103/334 (30.84%) for traitorless and 231/335 (69.16%) for traitor setup. So if town ever settles on always sleeping D3, their EV will be 103/334 (30.84%). If town, on the other hand chooses to never sleep D3, their EV will be: 231/334 x 103/231 = 103/334 (30.84%).
I will take your word for it.
Re: 1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:24 pm
by Creature
Though, there's a (1 - p) x (1 - 10/11 x 8/9) chance of game ending before D3. I'm feeling a little lazy to make calculations on that now.