Everyone's JOATED: Guillo's Roles (Town Wins)

[Alison]

If you think it's WIFOM just call the bluff. Scotty supposedly has a gun; he can resolve my alignment right now if it's legitimate.

My solve is Scotty -> Mac. I don't see a good reason for Scotty to have those guns in his hand unless he is mafia. I would probably go Mac over Dolby if he is green on the sole basis that both sides have been mech cleared (one got time looped, the other shot a wolf) and Mac is more likely to be cunning enough to fake it.

Dolby also was time looped today and only broke out of it when LC flipped. It's impossible for him to be a wolf unless this entire game has been set up for him to be the deepest of deep wolves.

The way that Dolby is a wolf is if he uses a daykill to bus Ender and then asks LC to time loop him (or fakes a time loop). In a Scotty V and HK V world someone has faked being sabotaged by the mafia so he can't be cleared off that.

I would go Mac over him mostly because I think Mac is about ten thousand times more likely to fake a sabotage on himself than Dolby is.

[Alison]

Scotty shooting a wolf teammate when he did is just nuts to think about. I am not gonna be the guy that tinfoils mafia killing teammates. I did that once and it cost me a lot of dignity.

So I am taking Dolby, Scotty as clear.

Is there a world where HK is a wolf?

Maybe he is the wolf with the card shuffling nonsense?

If Scotty/LC are the mafia team what do you think Scotty would do in that position?

[MacDougall]

Kill HK, Alison or Mac and not claim the shot, probably?

[hollowkatt]

Scotty shooting a wolf teammate when he did is just nuts to think about. I am not gonna be the guy that tinfoils mafia killing teammates. I did that once and it cost me a lot of dignity.

So I am taking Dolby, Scotty as clear.

Is there a world where HK is a wolf?

Maybe he is the wolf with the card shuffling nonsense?

for that to be true you'd have to believe I flipped incorrectly the first time b/c my card as revealed in DVC says I come back as the alignment I originally was

[MacDougall]

Yeah like why is that so hard to believe?

My initial solve was that you and Ender were mafia from the d1 wagons. If there is even a remote shred of evidence that there is flip bullshit in play, you having the card you have makes you getting that ability put on you a near certainty.

[hollowkatt]

If you think it's WIFOM just call the bluff. Scotty supposedly has a gun; he can resolve my alignment right now if it's legitimate.

My solve is Scotty -> Mac. I don't see a good reason for Scotty to have those guns in his hand unless he is mafia. I would probably go Mac over Dolby if he is green on the sole basis that both sides have been mech cleared (one got time looped, the other shot a wolf) and Mac is more likely to be cunning enough to fake it.

Dolby also was time looped today and only broke out of it when LC flipped. It's impossible for him to be a wolf unless this entire game has been set up for him to be the deepest of deep wolves.

The way that Dolby is a wolf is if he uses a daykill to bus Ender and then asks LC to time loop him (or fakes a time loop). In a Scotty V and HK V world someone has faked being sabotaged by the mafia so he can't be cleared off that.

I would go Mac over him mostly because I think Mac is about ten thousand times more likely to fake a sabotage on himself than Dolby is.

and I wouldn't put it past him to pull that off.

[MacDougall]

My solve sits at within TH, Mac and 1 other rn. Probably Nanook because ye gods the passivity here is unreal so I need to read them.

It's hard to imagine Mac intentionally postblocking himself for 2 day phases on end just to earn some towncred given the way he likes to play as scum. I have been burned by that kind of read before (Stardew Valley Mafia) though.

If you think it's WIFOM just call the bluff. Scotty supposedly has a gun; he can resolve my alignment right now if it's legitimate.

My solve is Scotty -> Mac. I don't see a good reason for Scotty to have those guns in his hand unless he is mafia. I would probably go Mac over Dolby if he is green on the sole basis that both sides have been mech cleared (one got time looped, the other shot a wolf) and Mac is more likely to be cunning enough to fake it.

Dolby also was time looped today and only broke out of it when LC flipped. It's impossible for him to be a wolf unless this entire game has been set up for him to be the deepest of deep wolves.

The way that Dolby is a wolf is if he uses a daykill to bus Ender and then asks LC to time loop him (or fakes a time loop). In a Scotty V and HK V world someone has faked being sabotaged by the mafia so he can't be cleared off that.

I would go Mac over him mostly because I think Mac is about ten thousand times more likely to fake a sabotage on himself than Dolby is.

Interesting how your opinion is so fluid.

[Alison]

I don't understand why Mac is willing to believe that HK flipped wrong and was rezzed as mafia goon but not that Scotty was willing to shoot his teammate as a hail mary bus in a situation where they were going to get stomped.

[MacDougall]

I had my teammate post curse me, not knowing when it would be lifted if ever?

Or is the accusation that I was just pretending?

Town plz.

I am spewed town in about six ways.

[hollowkatt]

Yeah like why is that so hard to believe?

My initial solve was that you and Ender were mafia from the d1 wagons. If there is even a remote shred of evidence that there is flip bullshit in play, you having the card you have makes you getting that ability put on you a near certainty.

ok, here's why that's hard to believe.
I'd have to plan to fake a red on TSP which is a bad plan b/c realistically TSP is no threat to the wolf team this game based on how he played D1 yeah? Why fake on TSP when I can fake on you, dolby, TH, michelle, honey, or Flea? All of whom were more town read than TSP was D1.

Then you'd have to believe the wolf team used a fake flip/janitor/role reversal of some sorts AND flip me with roles that aren't town roles (like no way does role madness mafia get alignment cop that's just dumb game design and guillo isn't dumb).
THEN you'd have to believe that we were banking on hitting that 10% chance to resurrect, which if that never happens all I did was trade 1:1 for TSP, which again, is poor mafia play and I think you respect my wolf game more than that.

[Alison]

My solve sits at within TH, Mac and 1 other rn. Probably Nanook because ye gods the passivity here is unreal so I need to read them.

It's hard to imagine Mac intentionally postblocking himself for 2 day phases on end just to earn some towncred given the way he likes to play as scum. I have been burned by that kind of read before (Stardew Valley Mafia) though.

If you think it's WIFOM just call the bluff. Scotty supposedly has a gun; he can resolve my alignment right now if it's legitimate.

My solve is Scotty -> Mac. I don't see a good reason for Scotty to have those guns in his hand unless he is mafia. I would probably go Mac over Dolby if he is green on the sole basis that both sides have been mech cleared (one got time looped, the other shot a wolf) and Mac is more likely to be cunning enough to fake it.

Dolby also was time looped today and only broke out of it when LC flipped. It's impossible for him to be a wolf unless this entire game has been set up for him to be the deepest of deep wolves.

The way that Dolby is a wolf is if he uses a daykill to bus Ender and then asks LC to time loop him (or fakes a time loop). In a Scotty V and HK V world someone has faked being sabotaged by the mafia so he can't be cleared off that.

I would go Mac over him mostly because I think Mac is about ten thousand times more likely to fake a sabotage on himself than Dolby is.

Interesting how your opinion is so fluid.

Don't be absurd. The context has changed and now we are looking at a possible deepwolf if Scotty really does fire a second live gun. In fact if Scotty fires a second gun to clear himself and HK is town then it is confirmed that the last remaining mafia member really did orchestrate a sabotage on themselves. So in that world yes I am forced to consider the possibility that you are that mafia member. I don't see a reason to consider that possibility when the game looks easy.

[MacDougall]

I don't understand why Mac is willing to believe that HK flipped wrong and was rezzed as mafia goon but not that Scotty was willing to shoot his teammate as a hail mary bus in a situation where they were going to get stomped.

I already humoured that. I am not unwilling to make that read. You are getting to the point of outing with the level of propagandaishness your Mac analysis possesses.

[MacDougall]

Okay let me find you some actual game content that should put paid to your little trip to stupidville.

[Alison]

I don't understand why Mac is willing to believe that HK flipped wrong and was rezzed as mafia goon but not that Scotty was willing to shoot his teammate as a hail mary bus in a situation where they were going to get stomped.

I already humoured that. I am not unwilling to make that read. You are getting to the point of outing with the level of propagandaishness your Mac analysis possesses.

Let us say Scotty shoots me. He has two live guns so he is clear. I am dead so I am clear.

What is your next move? Are you just going to say "gg HK was framed"?

[MacDougall]

now mac says im maf bc i dont have tmi,,, i've gotten a lot of things but i gotta say that's a new one!

I can't tell what the fuck this is. Either it's the dude ACTUALLY believing we're mafia hard defending the other and he's town. Or he's mafia that's just getting more and more pissed off that mislynches are getting taken off the table because players have meta on each other.

Like Mac complaining about how HK is playing, with all of him going crazy and screaming at people, is reminiscent of me being mafia in Jack Town when I just started complaining about people getting townread because they became toxic and yelled at people at certain points in the game.

now mac says im maf bc i dont have tmi,,, i've gotten a lot of things but i gotta say that's a new one!

I can't tell what the fuck this is. Either it's the dude ACTUALLY believing we're mafia hard defending the other and he's town. Or he's mafia that's just getting more and more pissed off that mislynches are getting taken off the table because players have meta on each other.

Is that reeeeally so hard to believe?

Are you even LOOKING at the other fucking games I just linked?

now mac says im maf bc i dont have tmi,,, i've gotten a lot of things but i gotta say that's a new one!

I can't tell what the fuck this is. Either it's the dude ACTUALLY believing we're mafia hard defending the other and he's town. Or he's mafia that's just getting more and more pissed off that mislynches are getting taken off the table because players have meta on each other.

Is that reeeeally so hard to believe?

Are you even LOOKING at the other fucking games I just linked?

Of course not. Why would I care enough about a bastard game to do that?

You're caring enough to get triggered.

LC

The good:

Typically I can tell if my entrance or first couple posts are good or not.

Main example here.
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4982972

I was Mystery Player, I knew my posts sucked to start and when SPF voted me I agreed my posts sucked, and I knew that I'd be obvious town to SPF because I know that she's good.

This game I feel like my posts have been fine. So seeing votes on me has me questioning why the hell I'm being voted and people are trying to bring attention to me when I'm towny.

Also the other thing is that I'm trying to figure out how or why she's pushing me. Lately I've been tunneling town players for sus'ing me super early in games for no reason. So I don't want to make that same mistake here.

Well, if you don't townread her, I'd say her reasons for trying to get you killed would be obvious (if you're town).


TBH this post reads like a frustrated wolf who feels their game has been more towny than their votes deserve

Or you're just an idiot that's coming up with excuses to scumread me instead of using actual fucking logic.

Shit like this is towny af from BK

The bad:

(Day 1 Posts: 62), (Day 2 Posts: 103), (Day 3 Posts: 119)

The dude's just generally really muted this game

His entrance reads as super crowd-pleasy when he's normally abrasive, he doesn't blare his strongest reads on max volume like he normally does
Could be a biproduct of him actually getting his way for once (see: mansnicks going over), but it's still just flat throughout and this guy's a rage machine

Like when people normally even indirectly challenge his reads he blows up at them and insists they're either dumb or scum for thinking so
Here his early read on mansnicks gets challenged and all he's worried about defending is people's perceptions of him off of it and not much of the read itself
I wouldn't expect him to take a passive approach to his top wolf as town, even if their death was telegraphed

I went at Mac (And others) for scumreading Honey who was my strongest townread this game.

I would go stronger...but you saw first hand the results of how I react when someone challenges my townreads. It's the reason I'm here currently.

[MacDougall]

I don't understand why Mac is willing to believe that HK flipped wrong and was rezzed as mafia goon but not that Scotty was willing to shoot his teammate as a hail mary bus in a situation where they were going to get stomped.

I already humoured that. I am not unwilling to make that read. You are getting to the point of outing with the level of propagandaishness your Mac analysis possesses.

Let us say Scotty shoots me. He has two live guns so he is clear. I am dead so I am clear.

What is your next move? Are you just going to say "gg HK was framed"?

Re-evaluate with new information at the time I need to.

[MacDougall]

Also wtf at that soup. If wolves gunned Mac don't they just know what he is????

Interesting post in hindsight.

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

Scummiest slot in the game so far.

So I've hard-disliked 2 of your takes so far, good start.

she is locktown

ender/lime w/w though or no cause I'd say no

Nah Mac says we w/w so we w/w.

Let me defend my buddy pls.

what's funny?

Your reads.

oh really? what's so funny about them?

You townread then scumread me within 15 minutes of my arrival.

Fastest turnaround yet.

What abt me I scumread u then tred you within 15 mins of ur arrival

You aren't someone I know who has turned around town/scum reads on me in previous games. =P I'm memeing at Mac.

Some EW getting annoyed at me and lashing out.

you're just flooding the thread with far too much fluff and bs

Who is this?

Honey. I find the gamestate hard to deal with because of it.

are you going to keep whining about it or are you going to steer the game in the direction you want cos i only see u doing one of these things
u act like im singularly holding this game hostage and i assure u im not lol

are u a newbie player too mac?

Mac is definitely a newbie player, and I'm sure he would be super appreciative if you took him under your wing and gave him guidance on how to best approach the game

Nanook with the best post in the thread by far.

Two wolves teasing me together.

Hey remember how I said this was HK town meta?

This is HK town meta.

tbf mac said this too and now look at him

Mac changing his mind on reads isn't anything AI for him.

Wonder if he kidnapped Alison so Alison couldn't scum him tho

Trying to push me like a massive pussy.

What are the chances Mac kidnapped Alison so he could use her as an excuse to push certain reads lmao

Pushing it again.

That's two wolves that spew me clear from getting tilted by me into spewing me town.

[MacDougall]

Why not do it to Alison? No offense to Mac but Alison would be a better insanifier target

The post Mac is repeating over and over is the post he got warned for violating the post cap for so it's possible that it has something to do with that. Alternatively it could be related to the fake gun he triggered which he said gave him a bunch of negative util effects. Silencing could easily fall under that category.

Going over postcap vanillises. That mac seems to have actioned gives me concerns.

Wait mac actioned despite going over the postcap? UGGGGGGGGGGH.

Hey look it's magical. A single Osie post that spews me endlessly clear of being his teammate also.

[MacDougall]

flea
ender
osie
lime

wolfy list probably

Day 2, 3/4 wolves in a wolf readslist.

[Alison]

The Osie post and some of the earlier LC posts are actually pretty good logs.

[Alison]

Maybe it's just Scotty then.

[MacDougall]

My entire ISO is clearing from my first post. This is nothing like my wolf game.

[MacDougall]

There's a whole page of Nanook waffly sheeping me onto a HK vote. Never teammed with Nanook because of it.

[hollowkatt]

The Osie post and some of the earlier LC posts are actually pretty good logs.

they are, and while I believe mac to be a strong enough player to survive the majority of his pack mates suspecting him, I'm more inclined to believe they knew he is town

[hollowkatt]

ok, from my perspective then I'm clear obvs and Mac is obvs town.

Scotty - shot LC
Dolby - lie checked Ender
Alison - Claimed Michelle death

Those are the pelts people can claim yeah?

[hollowkatt]

did anyone claim Nanooks pelt? I can't remember

[Alison]

Yeah.

[Alison]

Nobody's claimed Nanook's pelt. He might have been killed by Babysitter.

[MacDougall]

If I take all mech away.

Dolby and Alison are towny as fuck.
Scotty has pinged me but mostly was townread by a lot of town including C4 who was adamant, who also scumread LC and was right.
HK I have felt you were scummy for the majority of your game. You haven't even gotten towny since your return and are only coasting on the mech.

So if we were to take away all information, which frankly we probably should at this point of a bastard game. I'd kill you.

[MacDougall]

Alison has the worst mech clear. Which if anything in a game with seemingly so much capability to gain false mech clearance, makes her kinda townier.

Dolby has a mech clear AND towniness. So I am just taking him as lock.

Scotty, I should park my paranoia and sheep dead town.

I kinda think Scotty should holster his gun. We chop HK. Let the mafia clear another player. Go to regular f3. If Scotty is town with a gun, the mafia will clear him tonight? They never take Scotty with a gun to f3?

If f3 has Scotty you just chop him? Otherwise you chop Alison?

[Alison]

Alison has the worst mech clear. Which if anything in a game with seemingly so much capability to gain false mech clearance, makes her kinda townier.

Dolby has a mech clear AND towniness. So I am just taking him as lock.

Scotty, I should park my paranoia and sheep dead town.

I kinda think Scotty should holster his gun. We chop HK. Let the mafia clear another player. Go to regular f3. If Scotty is town with a gun, the mafia will clear him tonight? They never take Scotty with a gun to f3?

If f3 has Scotty you just chop him? Otherwise you chop Alison?

What's the advantage to this over Scotty shooting today?

[MacDougall]

Scotty shooting inaccurately today puts us at mylo immediately which means we can't have the mafia solve a slot for us overnight.

[MacDougall]

Like we could just be complete assholes and say Scotty you shoot a wolf and end the game or you get chopped today.

Scotty town, at rand has a 33% chance of winning the game if he shoots not me (which like don't cuz I have a vest anyway). Take the fact that Dolby is probably just town here and it's 50%.

If he shoots wrong, then there is then a 33% chance he is mafia.

Which if you take Dolby as a clear actually makes him 50% likely mafia.

[hollowkatt]

If I take all mech away.

Dolby and Alison are towny as fuck.
Scotty has pinged me but mostly was townread by a lot of town including C4 who was adamant, who also scumread LC and was right.
HK I have felt you were scummy for the majority of your game. You haven't even gotten towny since your return and are only coasting on the mech.

So if we were to take away all information, which frankly we probably should at this point of a bastard game. I'd kill you.

So I flipped wrong? That's your "non-mech" solve?

[Alison]

Like we could just be complete assholes and say Scotty you shoot a wolf and end the game or you get chopped today.

Scotty town, at rand has a 33% chance of winning the game if he shoots not me (which like don't cuz I have a vest anyway). Take the fact that Dolby is probably just town here and it's 50%.

If he shoots wrong, then there is then a 33% chance he is mafia.

Which if you take Dolby as a clear actually makes him 50% likely mafia.

No... if he shoots wrong he has two live guns so there is a 0% chance he is mafia.

[Alison]

Scotty shooting inaccurately today puts us at mylo immediately which means we can't have the mafia solve a slot for us overnight.

I'm not actually sure that giving a mafia member with unknown/disputed powers an extra night phase to operate freely is more helpful to town than not. If they have an extra KP we auto lose for example.

[Guillotine]

Forgot to say this after Lime Coke's death.

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 votes to hammer someone.

[MacDougall]

If I take all mech away.

Dolby and Alison are towny as fuck.
Scotty has pinged me but mostly was townread by a lot of town including C4 who was adamant, who also scumread LC and was right.
HK I have felt you were scummy for the majority of your game. You haven't even gotten towny since your return and are only coasting on the mech.

So if we were to take away all information, which frankly we probably should at this point of a bastard game. I'd kill you.

So I flipped wrong? That's your "non-mech" solve?

You want me to reword what I said?

On play you are the least towny imo. Sorry if wrong.

[Scotty]

Mornin’,

So I’m shooting between Dolby and Alison today, and I want to do it when everyone is around, just in case I’m wrong and the soup kill is attempted right after. Because if I’m wrong, they can probably win with Mac/HK vs me/Alison/Dolby. So we need to immediately vote whoever I don’t shoot if they’re town, just to be safe.

So here’s what I stayed up last night contemplating with Dolby:

I’m getting soup killed for this

HK, Seanzie, and myself were all intended gun recipients last night. This is a random 3, and non-exhaustive.

I did receive a gun

HK’s and Seanzie’s guns came from the same source

Every day except judgement I’ve been giving out guns

N1 was a 2-fer to HK and Seanzie
N2 was Alison and I really fucked up there and wasn’t paying attention
N3 couldn’t
N4 Mac
N5 Lime Coke. Was hoping to dodge a death

I don’t believe you. I don’t believe your claim.

I believe that you gave Mac his gun and HK never was a recipient. You said on D2 that you received a gun and implied it came from a different source. Well I believe you are the source.

We haven’t heard of anyone else giving guns. Maybe Alison?

I don’t believe you were ever scared of being in the Soup, because you are the Soup Nazi. Just as Ender didn’t seem scared of the soup.

You shooting Ender was the only towny thing you’ve done all game, and I think you were hoping it would let you ride all the way into the sunset. Not on this steed, Lone Ranger.

But let’s look closer at the Ender lie detect in context, shall we?
Night 2 (his only post):

It’s painful to even skim at this particular moment. From what I’ve gathered the only thing that can be considered a hot take I have is that my boy Ender is probs town. I should be able to dedicate some time starting mid D3 if stuff calms down.

Day 3:

this was the vote count at the time around the lie detect. Most town voices (myself included) had found the movement around ender’s train fishy (And knowing LC is bad it is glaringly obvious now lol). The trains have fluctuated all day but Ender was usually a front runner, and would need to be resolved if not today, then tomorrow.
Ender’s gettin lynched. There’s no real way around it. Scum had been trying all day to change that trajectory (nook tying it up with Ender 4, +1 GG to 4, Ender starting that creature train and LC trying valiantly to vote the highest train not Ender). Ender comes back late with a vengeance throwing anyone and everyone under the bus. Then who shows up at the same time? Lone Ranger Dolby, who has come to the rescue, to ask Ender to give him something to lie detect as ammo, and shoots. This manifesto before shooting is the ONLY thing that grinds my gears with the whole Dolby is aligned with mafia thing:

If I die for this it was to cause chaos in the last 10 hours of day and I regret that and not coming here earlier but frankly I think that this is the shot that best improves the thread State, and only one different shot that I’d even consider taking would change the outcome of today.

If Ender is not lying (and thus is town) I die, frankly I think this is a pretty likely outcome but I think confirmed town Ender is pretty good for the thread if there really is no night kill tonight, and the only outcome that I think is likely to lead to Ender not being yeeted is a Creature red flip.

If Ender is mafia and lying, he dies.

I do not consider myself confirmed from the soup attempt. I think it’s possible that scum were using it to WIFOM or maybe try to force a clear (likely LC in that world). The trouble with looking at that mafia just could’ve submitted a less obvious fake on one of their own rather than “Mac: ascentic”

Glgl

If/when I flip town better move off him

Like holy shit: he exactly states what the deal with the soup is, and calls out LC for it. He didn’t need to do that.

Sorta like how Mac didn’t need to commit to there being 2 mafia members left before LC died.
But being the voice of reason is a relatable way to establish your end game longevity, so I’m gonna look past that WIFOM.


As a side note, the whole gun thing is still rubbing me the wrong way. When I asked Dolby to claim, he stated that he gives out guns every day. That’s it. That’s his role. Where does the ‘judgment day’ ability come in?
Tinfoil: I think Dolby receiving a gun and even his judgment day is conditional, based on if someone uses one of his shitty guns (a la mac or Seanzie). Note Seanzie dies and Mac gets gamma ray’d d2, and Dolby comes in swinging with a gun and that lie detector. And never again.

That is purely tinfoil, but it’s something I’m pondering, because a gunsmith who gives out guns, but has never admitted to giving himself a gun, is ???.

Why has none of the other targets he mention admit to having a gun?

[Scotty]

Alison has the worst mech clear. Which if anything in a game with seemingly so much capability to gain false mech clearance, makes her kinda townier.

Dolby has a mech clear AND towniness. So I am just taking him as lock.

Scotty, I should park my paranoia and sheep dead town.

I kinda think Scotty should holster his gun. We chop HK. Let the mafia clear another player. Go to regular f3. If Scotty is town with a gun, the mafia will clear him tonight? They never take Scotty with a gun to f3?

If f3 has Scotty you just chop him? Otherwise you chop Alison?

I’m not holstering today. That there hasn’t been a soup is a good sign, and I don’t want to chance it happening in the night. This is do or die today imo

And lol how could HK be anything but town? His original flip would have to have been reverse. Is that a scenario that seems possible with the revealed roles?

[Scotty]

In my iso’ing of Alison, she is a salad of WIFOM with extra ranch dressing.

When she says things, she hits them at several angles and they’re all logical. I find myself nodding my head every other post. I have heard of Alison the powerwolf of yore, and I know that she is capable of going deep as powerwolf.

@c4e5g3d5 ... I think you might be right about Lime Coke. I just read his ISO and he is scummy. If I had to point something out in particular it would be his dealing with your slot. He wanted to bury Creature but that slowly dissipated for no apparent reason and in the face of youn subbing into that slot he has refused to pick back up the suspicion.

Also his post count deteriorated every day. As the game has gone on his wim to solve has dried up.

Maybe you are just that good...

My read on LC is that his logs are bad and his presence in the soup kill is good.

Essentially if you believe the soup kill is a genuine attempt at murdering town then LC is cleared, if you harbor doubts about how real it is then LC should be POE'd. I believe the soup kill is real (see previous analysis) so I am comfortable clearing LC here.

All reasonable WIFOM.

Day 4:

Spoiler: show

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 00#p827632

^ mansnicks (V), hollowkatt (V) and Ender (W) wagons at 4/4/4. From there, in order...

- Ender votes mansnicks. Self pres, duh.

- Flea votes Ender in order to sheep me. VERY good look for faer, putting a vote on a mafia member at a crucial moment + saying it's a sheep to minimize credit for faerself.

- Michelle votes mansnicks. This is indicative that Michelle is probably actually wolf and voted with her scum buddy to stop Flea from putting Ender over. This mansnicks vote involves an awkward backpedal on her Ender read ("Something on last Ender posts makes me to want him alive at this Eod"), which means Michelle felt fear at Flea's vote.

- Creature votes mansnicks. Bad vote, but later events made Creature most likely townie so I'm willing to say this was just a wrong read.

At this point the wagons are mansnicks 7, Ender 4 if I'm counting correctly. After Creature's vote mafia probably regained some confidence that mansnicks would go over and not Ender. That means they are less likely to baldly try to save Ender and more likely to make good-looking votes that will reflect well on them later on.

- LC drops in at the last second with a vote on mansnicks. Probably a townie vote, since at this point mansnicks had a huge lead and a scum LC could easily just not have shown up, or voted HK or even Ender to try to get some towncred later rather than be tied to the mansnicks exe.

- Creature votes a vanity wagon, Scotty. Weird vote, and I don't know what he was trying to do there. Probably just petulant that his desired exe did not go over and voted there to make a point, which is kinda townie.

- Then HK and mansnicks have a long argument and mansnicks flips.

So based on the EOD vote movement analysis...

1) Michelle is probably just scum.
2) Flea is spewed town.
3) Lime Coke gets small town points.

[VOTE: TH] aubergine

Lime Coke is in a weird state for me. If Ender is scum then he's scumsided with his pushes pretty hard and I found his D1 posting to be pretty wolfy. To his credit is the fact that his interactions with honey looked T/T and kind of unnecessary for a mafia to fake (if he's scum and honey is town he'd get more mileage from letting me/Mac tunnel her and then turning the heat around on us when she flips town than by going for a level 1 white knight play). He was also one of the people included in the soupkill, and a genuine soupkill attempt on Lime Coke fits best in a scum Ender world rather than a town Ender one. The soupkill attempt is at least plausible - he did soft doc or some variant of protective role a couple of times and was visibly tilted when his pet townread and in-game best friend died at night. Adding everything up, probably leaning slightly more town than scum, but keep holding him accountable for his pushes.

I don't know what to make of Flea. Fae haven't really gotten into the meat of the interactions and pushes and had a weird reluctance to push Ender yesterday asking me if I was sure and stating that fae didn't want to commit to the vote (implied to be for some mech reason, like an ability that shorts out if they vote town or something). I think fae are still overall townie on play, especially on D2, and I am looking forward to seeing faer tryhard solving today.

The way she goes about breaking down this voting analysis is sound, but her conclusions fit her own agenda. Where she says the LC vote looks scummy but is actually town, I say looks scummy and we know is scummy. I don’t know how often a person would make that vote and is actually town- maybe it is higher- but Alison knows how to appeal to stats and can stack those stats in explaining if she needs to push a specific read.

In the second quote, again, she waffles with the thought that LC looks wolfy, but also is town because look at this minute detail where he banters with honey- that looks super hard for mafia to fake! (Again, is it? Where are those stats?)

Day 3:

Spoiler: show

I'm not a fan of the Creature wagon. I think there's much less reason to exe him than either Gnome or Ender and I'm a big anti-fan of how both Gnome and Ender piled onto it happily.

What’s your opinion of this chicken noodle soup with your name in it?

It's a weird soup and I'm considering the possibility that mafia intentionally souped their own member in order to trade tonight's NK for a fake clear. Hitting me as Bomb Giver makes sense if they had info about my action and if Michelle did try to kill LoMo. Dolby claimed lie detector in thread. Mac as ascetic is a completely random line unless they rolecopped him. I'm don't understand Lime Coke as doctor either.

Also wtf at that soup. If wolves gunned Mac don't they just know what he is????

Why are you assuming here that the soup failed because of Mac, as opposed to one of the other targets? The failure message simply states "one or more of the targets hasn't been matched to their role". Maybe they were right about Mac, and it's Lime Coke that isn't a doctor, or whatever.

Offering incredulity of the potential fake soup. WIFOM. However, we can see linked that even Ender was pushing the idea of fake soup, which is lol WIFOM. “Maybe they were right about Mac, and it’s Lime Coke that isn’t a doctor, or whatever”
Indeedy.


Here’s another reason to scum read Alison:
She’s still alive.

If you look into the epochs of time of this game, you’ll see everyone under the sun continually working to town read her and save her. Especially all the wolves.
If you’re a wolf, and day 4 comes around, where there are no night polls to protect you, and the soup kill is real but you still don’t know Alison’s role, why keep her around? She’s a strong presence and has essentially worked in tandem with mac this whole game.
She’s probably not gonna reveal her role any further than what you have (where tf is this soft claim of “Bomb
Maker” anyway??) you should probably cut ties as soon as you feel safe to do so.

We know LC was no doctor, so what are you waiting for? She should have been gone by N5 if mafia were scared of her. Which they should be if she is town.


If Alison is mafia, she simply must be the one giving out shitty guns. The only way Mac is town is if he got a shitty gun that forces that role upon him. Or else she has some form of investigative power. We haven’t seen any guns used since D2 and me. I know I got a good gun- the kind that Dolby received.

My qualm here with Alison being bad is that there must be a town power that can give good guns for their to be a separate mafia power to give bad ones. We have seen neither, but Dolby claims to “give guns”. Could be that Dolby has two powers- give shit guns and give good guns.

I’m back in the Dolby camp of being bad right now as I’m writing this lol

[MacDougall]

I did just think of something else. There also has to be someone who gave me the vest n1. It wasn't Dolby. Alison claimed to have done something that caused Michelle to die. It wasn't HK. That really only leaves you as an armorsmith. Mafia would have worked out that was you by now also.

So yeah.

[MacDougall]

Actually.

Maybe what actually happened to me is that the gun I got was a standard issue 50/50 gun much like the one Seanzie got but my vest activated and is what caused me to have the role switch.

I am still wearing the vest. I was told I'd get notified if it was ever pierced. That doesn't mean it's a bulletproof vest necessarily. Or maybe it is but when I get capped I get my old role back also.

[Scotty]

Actually.

Maybe what actually happened to me is that the gun I got was a standard issue 50/50 gun much like the one Seanzie got but my vest activated and is what caused me to have the role switch.

I am still wearing the vest. I was told I'd get notified if it was ever pierced. That doesn't mean it's a bulletproof vest necessarily. Or maybe it is but when I get capped I get my old role back also.

Who do you think gave you that gun?
And do you think there are other types of guns out there or just that one 50/50 gun, that both Dolby and I have successfully fired?

[MacDougall]

mansnicks has been eliminated

He was Town

As Town Jack Of All Trades, you have access to one or more night actions. Don't have to use in any specific order.

x3 RocketKnight
The RocketKnight may each night pass a gun to another player in the game. Guns received from the RocketKnight can only be fired during day phases and have a 50% chance of revealing the shooter.

x3 RocketKnight
The RocketKnight may each night pass a gun to another player in the game. Guns received from the RocketKnight can only be fired during day phases and have a 50% chance of revealing the shooter.

x3 RocketKnight
The RocketKnight may each night pass a gun to another player in the game. Guns received from the RocketKnight can only be fired during day phases and have a 50% chance of revealing the shooter.

You got a limited amount of RocketKnight uses.

Dolby claims to be a gunsmith. Mansnicks flipped a triple gunsmith on d1. But if his flip is perfect info he couldn't have given me the gun. But the flavour is the same as the flavour I got ie. the 50% chance of reveal.

The tactician role makes everything confusing because the wolf flips after n3 (or maybe earlier) don't necessarily mean that person started with that role.

So it could be that someone alive wolf or not has an ability to absorb a joat ability from a dead player. Maybe someone strictly has a joat role where they can use dead town abilities and use mansnicks role to give me a gun n1.

But again that only makes sense to be you, but you had to have given me the vest.

The data is imperfect so we can only get so far looking at it. But its still important to piece together what we can.

I dunno

[MacDougall]

Nah I just reread. My vest came as an actual red card with a vest graphic and it specifically says its bp and protects me from 1 kill.

The gun wasn't a card.

So that's weird.

[MacDougall]

Oh fuck there is also the weaponise that hasn't been considered. Which I got hit with on d2 after I got the gun but I had already fired when I was alerted of it.

Dolby also claimed a gun and said he baited the weaponise.

So that's another unflipped scum ability.

[MacDougall]

I don't think Dolby is the right person to shoot man.

Like Dolby's role is at least somewhat confirmed. Alison is entirely unclaimed.

[MacDougall]

Is it possible that we still actually have 2 scum left? There are so many negative abilities that have flown around that remain unaccounted for by flip? Like maybe the game would have ended if you didn't have guns and this whole day has been contingent on you shooting accurately?

n2 card shenanigans
armorsmith (confirmed to exist ... can be either alignment)
weaponizer (confirmed to exist)
negative gunsmith
fake soup/gambit maker?

It makes sense that the same person who gave me the gun then weaponised it in order to make me shoot it. That is a common guillo joat set. Hasn't flipped. So either that is a mafia alive or that wolf flipped showing other abilities.

Maybe your second gun is of that variety? Is that possible?

Afaik nobody else has received armor ever except me on n1. It came as a card and not mod note. Maybe an unflipped card says something like "10% chance who you target receives a bp vest"?

Same person as the gunsmith has that card maybe?

Gunsmith/weaponiser flavour doesn't make sense to be the card shenanigans person. That role doesn't necessarily have to be mafia tho. Maybe Alison did that?

Maybe just maybe Dolby is just a wolf gunsmith/weaponiser and holds the soup?

Some townie uses mansnicks role to give Seanzie/Mac a gun n1? Wolf gives the other one a dud gun... my gun? Wolf weaponises me d2. Same wolf?