Fortune of Lies [Gameover Mafia Win)

[Paopan]

Collecting these posts for ease of access. These are Paopan's lie-detected statements.



Night 1 - False

I'm VT, I expect you all to let me carry you this game, always vote with me, never vote anyone other that who I'm voting and we will win this.

Night 2 - True

I am town!



Late to the party I see

Night 3 - True

Btw there's a 0% chance I get yeeted today so you might as well not bother.

Why is that?

Because I'm the doctor.

Random doctor, to be specific. I'm assuming I've either accidentally stopped a kill (possibly twice) or there's no sker and the wolves are making doc dodge kills.

Either scenario confirms me town.

Night 4 - False

Seein' as I might die here, figure I'll just claim. My role ain't that great, but I'm a town oracle. I get information about the setup each night.

That summs it up. You did it very fast.
I just view things via discord.

[Marmot]

Oh. Wait. I finally get it.

I realized that MM was kinda "confirmed town" when he rides on Michelle's investigative result.
They may have a consigliere and wanted to kill Sig because he's a roleblocker.

What does consig do again?

A player can know the role of someone. Kinda Mafia Investigative. I'm just assuming here cos I'm really not that familiar with the game.

What makes more sense?
Mafia not attacking, or mafia hitting a healed person?

Assuming the doctor can't self-target, that means Jack had a 20% chance to protect whoever the mafia killed.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised they wouldn't just kill Jack.

I'm also baffled with this. Is there a mechanical reason why won't they?
Ah this is kinda annoying when the roles available aren't available in the setup. I just can't deduce anything.

I think your point that mafia would not kill to give the doc claim more credibility is a reasonable one. That's the only one I can think of.

Also, the only thing confirming Jack as a Doctor is that SoA revealed from his Oracle that there is a Doctor.


But Paopan, if Jack is Mafia, wouldn't your Night 3 check be false unless Jack is a Mafia Doctor?

[Marmot]

Collecting these posts for ease of access. These are Paopan's lie-detected statements.



Night 1 - False

I'm VT, I expect you all to let me carry you this game, always vote with me, never vote anyone other that who I'm voting and we will win this.

Night 2 - True

I am town!



Late to the party I see

Night 3 - True

Btw there's a 0% chance I get yeeted today so you might as well not bother.

Why is that?

Because I'm the doctor.

Random doctor, to be specific. I'm assuming I've either accidentally stopped a kill (possibly twice) or there's no sker and the wolves are making doc dodge kills.

Either scenario confirms me town.

Night 4 - False

Seein' as I might die here, figure I'll just claim. My role ain't that great, but I'm a town oracle. I get information about the setup each night.

That summs it up. You did it very fast.
I just view things via discord.

I phone-play sometimes, but computer is soooooooo much easier.

[Marmot]

I've also played on this site for years, so I'm comfortable with the layout.

[Marmot]

Or rather, If your claim is true, Jack has to be town, and SoA has to be scum, which would mean that MM is the only option for other scum.

That works out I think. The weird thing is, the only thing that SoA has done today is pop in and incriminate MM, so their potential for being teammates is a little wonky.

[Paopan]

Or rather, If your claim is true, Jack has to be town, and SoA has to be scum, which would mean that MM is the only option for other scum.

That works out I think. The weird thing is, the only thing that SoA has done today is pop in and incriminate MM, so their potential for being teammates is a little wonky.

Oracle can't claim/confirm that there is a Doctor. It is impossible.
Where did he incriminate MM again? I can't see it.

[Marmot]

Or rather, If your claim is true, Jack has to be town, and SoA has to be scum, which would mean that MM is the only option for other scum.

That works out I think. The weird thing is, the only thing that SoA has done today is pop in and incriminate MM, so their potential for being teammates is a little wonky.

Oracle can't claim/confirm that there is a Doctor. It is impossible.
Where did he incriminate MM again? I can't see it.

I'll check.

[Paopan]

Me - Town
Jack - Town
Marmot - Town
MM - Scum lean
SOA - Confirmed Evil
NAA - Neutral

We can also not lynch today and SOA's flip will confirm 2 town in the process.
Let's test that scenario.
1 mafia, 3 town, 1 neutral left.
1 mafia kills town -> next day

1 mafia, 2 town, 1 neutral left.
I think we still have odds of winning here. Provided who will be poisoned and killed at night... A mafia getting poisoned, town dying.
It's a tight game. Oh boy.

[Marmot]

SonOfAnarch's Oracle Readings


Night 1

My oracle readin' sucks. All it said was that there are more than one third parties in the game.

Night 2

Eh fine. It says there is for sure a doctor in the game.

Night 3

SoA didn't post at all Day 4, so we've got nothing here.


Night 4

Hey guys. I forgot about this game. I learned that the lie in this setup is that there is no sane cop btw

[Marmot]

So SoA's Night 4 reading suggests that there are no sane cops, and that's what MM is claiming. Direct cc.

[Paopan]

Ah the rules, but

"There will only be one of the above that’s a lie."

[Marmot]

I'll just take NAA as 3P at this point. I assume he would make some sort of claim if not for the Lie-Detector in the game.

[Paopan]

Hmm. I don't understand their strategy at all. Why would mafia and mafia hit each other at this point.

[Marmot]

Hmm. I don't understand their strategy at all. Why would mafia and mafia hit each other at this point.

Distancing I guess? SoA made the claim after it was stated that he was poisoned, but before you claimed he is not the Oracle.

[Paopan]

Oh. It's making sense.

I think it's good.

1 min and I'll get back to work. I guess this is it.

Game became easier when many people died

[Marmot]

Oh, apparently I missed the part where MM had a red check on sig, a town player.

No wonder NAA was accusing me of trolling. You could've just told me that.

[Marmot]

I'm still concerned about NAA lying that SoA is his target today, but I guess we just have to chop MM and hope for the best,

I'll hold off on voting for now, not ready to end the day immediately.

[Marmot]

Oh. It's making sense.

I think it's good.

1 min and I'll get back to work. I guess this is it.

Game became easier when many people died

Indeed it has become easier

GL at work!!

[NotAnAxehole]

Oh, apparently I missed the part where MM had a red check on sig, a town player.

No wonder NAA was accusing me of trolling. You could've just told me that.

[NotAnAxehole]

Mafia are probably using the same strategy as D2. Bury a Teammate so that one of them can get some cred.

[NotAnAxehole]

So yeah, there's a difference check between SoA and Paopan, also Jack can only be mafia with Paopan... At least one of mafiamenace and SoA is mafia...

Therefore Jack is confirmed town.

[NotAnAxehole]

I think we kill mafiamenace and SOA today, Paopan if game doesn't end.

[MafiaMenace]

watch in awe as town slowly implodes
everyone being against me in a potential mylo should be moderately spewing me town but whatevs

the scumteam is paopan/soa, scum!paopan can viably bus soa as he can easily just vote me first

[NotAnAxehole]

I'm still concerned about NAA lying that SoA is his target today, but I guess we just have to chop MM and hope for the best,

I'll hold off on voting for now, not ready to end the day immediately.

You think I'm 3p which means either mafia are killing me in the night, or I force a kingmaker situation tomorrow. I think there's a good chance we kill both mafia today, so I don't think it'll come to that.

Today, town is forced to chop mafia, thus can't kill me.

If there is a kingmaker scénario, town is forced to vote off mafia, because I am not 3p - not confirmed 3p, so my existence in the game is entirely irrelevant for town, because if mafia don't kill me in the night AND I'm 3p, town are already at this point in time just kingmakers who think that they have a shot at winning if they kill mafia.

[MafiaMenace]

3v2v1 (?)
kill me
naa kills soa
2v1v1 (?)
mafia kills town
1v1v1 (?)

sounds good sure

[NotAnAxehole]

watch in awe as town slowly implodes
everyone being against me in a potential mylo should be moderately spewing me town but whatevs

the scumteam is paopan/soa, scum!paopan can viably bus soa as he can easily just vote me first

I'd the team is SOA paopan, we still win.

[MafiaMenace]

thats if you are town aligned lol

[MafiaMenace]

and im not gonna put money on a poisoner being town

[NotAnAxehole]

thats if you are town aligned lol

No, that's if I'm 3p aligned

[MafiaMenace]

literally no

[NotAnAxehole]

If I'm 3p town and mafia are just kingmakers at this point, either mafia kill me in the night and king town, or town kills mafia tomorrow and king me. - I leave out the possibility of mafia winning via kingmaking because town can't assume that I'm 3p because they need to kill mafia in order to have a shot at winning.

[NotAnAxehole]

Mafia can only win via misskill which seems impossible with me Jack and Marmot confirmed not mafia.

[MafiaMenace]

"in order to have a shot at winning they need to kill mafia"
so basically what i just said

[NotAnAxehole]

So yeah, mafia can't win unless my action failed, and are kingmakers.

[NotAnAxehole]

"in order to have a shot at winning they need to kill mafia"
so basically what i just said

Yes, if town kill me on either day regardless if I'm town or 3p town loses.

[MafiaMenace]

naa can you be a pal and quickly list all the dead players you are responsible for

[MafiaMenace]

"in order to have a shot at winning they need to kill mafia"
so basically what i just said

Yes, if town kill me on either day regardless if I'm town or 3p town loses.

literally not wtf ive been talking about

[NotAnAxehole]

Ruri and Michelle

[MafiaMenace]

so you lied when you said you killed macdougall😒
this is why i dont trust you being town

[MafiaMenace]

killing michelle is incredibly antitown but points for admitting it i guess

[NotAnAxehole]

I'm only talking to confirmed town from this point. @Marmot @Jackofhearts2005 you see my point?

[MafiaMenace]

more antitown behavior
coolcool

[NotAnAxehole]

Like, Mafia's play is to take me to F3 and convince you that you hate me more than you hate them

[MafiaMenace]

no im trying to understand how the fuck a town player would ever play like this

[NotAnAxehole]

Because it's winning. We virtually cannot lose barring some insane mod lies.

[MafiaMenace]

the entire game you have floundered about spitting complete lies and partaking in general antitown behavior
its obscene to think you are capable of being town aligned

[MafiaMenace]

youre also trying to force some nonsense narrative that im pushing you for some reason
we kill soa
then we kill paopan
game over

[NotAnAxehole]

the entire game you have floundered about spitting complete lies and partaking in general antitown behavior
its obscene to think you are capable of being town aligned

It's ok, Marmot and JoH will soon come into the thread and agree that my existence as a 3p doesn't matter unless we kill 2 mafia today and game doesn't end.

[MafiaMenace]

"unless we kill 2 mafia today"
thats my entire point bozo
you arent killing 2 mafia today

[NotAnAxehole]

"unless we kill 2 mafia today"
thats my entire point bozo
you arent killing 2 mafia today

Lel