Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)

[MacDougall]

To be clear since I forgot to mention: I wasn't here at all whenever there was a two vote wagon. When I returned I think the poll was empty.

Yeah so given this I can bury the idea that you and C4 is off the table then. C4/Hally is though.

[Hally]

i don’t think c4/nook is the world

if i’m wrong c’est le vie

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I don't think its particularly likely mafia would have hammered there given the difficulty of voting in this game and this site's tendency towards cautious scum play around hammers

If two mafia were here, you don't think they hammer? That is ludicrous lol.

I think a mafia team of hally/c4 specifically probably doesn't

You're treating it like this is MU where it's not that hard to hammer

[Hally]

if c4 is a wolf it’s with NAA ~always imo

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Truth be told, if I am mafia and have a chance to hammer at MYLO I am absolutely not conservative. Dizzy and I won a game that way. People think I am way more anti-hammer than I really am.

Anyway no matter. I would be fine clearing c4/Hally from hammerthings just because I don't think it's a team theory that is likely to drive the Day 3 elimination anyway.

[MacDougall]

Looking at all three of you, you also have given no real effort to push any of the other three of you on this day. That is despite Axe and Nanook both having articulated strong scumreads on C4 at multiple points in the game. No real desire to push him today. This makes me think that c4 is always mafia. If the scum were Axe/Nanook, it has already become significantly easier to start to push C4 to get this win (especially given I am voting him). Ergo I feel C4 is outed via gamestate.

The question then becomes who is the other wolf. I think asking the question who is the most wolfy between Axe/Nanook is more pertinent than who is more likely to be with exactly C4. I have had a mostly consistent feel that Axe is town throughout the game. Nanook has not developed enough for my liking, in his read on me and his general play. I think Nanook is more likely than Axe but not by much.

I've considered similar things about c4.

Between Nanook and NAA, my answer is definitely NAA as being more independently suspicious. I am not sure he is keeping his story straight about you -- he deduced you're mafia (or had a "read") on the basis of the statistical analysis he described on Day 2, had you in a hard dichotomy with Nanook who I think made himself a lot clearer at EOD2, and still voted Dizzy... because Alison said so. Now today he is claiming his view of you isn't alignment-driven but rather something about "game impact", which doesn't make any sense to me with his prior statistical analysis in mind.

I just think Axe is sheeping Alison without fully admitting it tbh. I am the only one left alive from her POE so he is banking on her being right in lieu of trusting his own judgement or the judgement of other players here (who he does not have alignment confirmation of which is fair). It is not out of scumrange to sheep a dead town reading a town mafia to win at lylo, but it kind of is to do so in the way he is. It comes across like he is actually in two minds about it. Coupled with the fact that the last game we played together he was right about me most of the game (probably for similar dead town sheep reasons at least partially) and then I got really towny right at the end of the game and nearly got him to throw. He's probably rather conscious of me doing it again. Especially considering that the way I got him to flip his read on me last time is probably not exactly clear to him how I did it lol.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.

Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.

Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.

The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.

I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.

I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.

@NotAnAxehole, do you think MR and Dizzy both turning out to be town should have any impact upon the way you progress through your process today (beyond just narrowing down the total pool of options)?

MR and Dizzy weren't apart of my solve process. I was just playing the odds that Alison would be right even if she wasn't full confidence.

So no.

Any reason you valued Alison's legacy over your own process that led you to Mac?

I didn't / don't have a complete read on Mac. I haven't caught up on the game. My Mac read from earlier was his impact in the game, not a read on his alignment per say.

Not sure how these two posts can coexist.

[MacDougall]

I don't think its particularly likely mafia would have hammered there given the difficulty of voting in this game and this site's tendency towards cautious scum play around hammers

If two mafia were here, you don't think they hammer? That is ludicrous lol.

I think a mafia team of hally/c4 specifically probably doesn't

You're treating it like this is MU where it's not that hard to hammer

I have snipe hammered to win games on TS so many times it's ridiculous lol. It's actually easier to do as a tandem or team on TS imo because of the lack of visibility over it (you only need to vote in the poll then screenshot it, game over). Hell Jay, Nutella and I have done it as three people. You can coordinate down to the exact second in scum chat to do it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I just think Axe is sheeping Alison without fully admitting it tbh. I am the only one left alive from her POE so he is banking on her being right in lieu of trusting his own judgement or the judgement of other players here (who he does not have alignment confirmation of which is fair). It is not out of scumrange to sheep a dead town reading a town mafia to win at lylo, but it kind of is to do so in the way he is. It comes across like he is actually in two minds about it. Coupled with the fact that the last game we played together he was right about me most of the game (probably for similar dead town sheep reasons at least partially) and then I got really towny right at the end of the game and nearly got him to throw. He's probably rather conscious of me doing it again. Especially considering that the way I got him to flip his read on me last time is probably not exactly clear to him how I did it lol.

I don't think I am willing to make that assumption for him.

[MacDougall]

I am currently the only person voting in this game, vote pressure is actually a thing you guys.

[Hally]

if c4 is a wolf it’s with NAA ~always imo

c4/nook - idk why mac thinks this is possible but it really seems like a stretch to me based on D2
c4/mac - mac has absolutely no reason to bury c4 when NAA or nook are sitting there as free mislunches
c4/jay - i don’t think jay votes c4 EoD2 as w/w, just seems pointlessly risky

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Truth be told, if I am mafia and have a chance to hammer at MYLO I am absolutely not conservative. Dizzy and I won a game that way. People think I am way more anti-hammer than I really am.

Anyway no matter. I would be fine clearing c4/Hally from hammerthings just because I don't think it's a team theory that is likely to drive the Day 3 elimination anyway.

A hammer where you had to vote in thread and in the poll for it to count?

[MacDougall]

I just think Axe is sheeping Alison without fully admitting it tbh. I am the only one left alive from her POE so he is banking on her being right in lieu of trusting his own judgement or the judgement of other players here (who he does not have alignment confirmation of which is fair). It is not out of scumrange to sheep a dead town reading a town mafia to win at lylo, but it kind of is to do so in the way he is. It comes across like he is actually in two minds about it. Coupled with the fact that the last game we played together he was right about me most of the game (probably for similar dead town sheep reasons at least partially) and then I got really towny right at the end of the game and nearly got him to throw. He's probably rather conscious of me doing it again. Especially considering that the way I got him to flip his read on me last time is probably not exactly clear to him how I did it lol.

I don't think I am willing to make that assumption for him.

I don't even think it's an assumption. Pretty sure he's mentioned it multiple times. He just hasn't belaboured it or leant heavily on it.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I don't think its particularly likely mafia would have hammered there given the difficulty of voting in this game and this site's tendency towards cautious scum play around hammers

If two mafia were here, you don't think they hammer? That is ludicrous lol.

I think a mafia team of hally/c4 specifically probably doesn't

You're treating it like this is MU where it's not that hard to hammer

I have snipe hammered to win games on TS so many times it's ridiculous lol. It's actually easier to do as a tandem or team on TS imo because of the lack of visibility over it (you only need to vote in the poll then screenshot it, game over). Hell Jay, Nutella and I have done it as three people. You can coordinate down to the exact second in scum chat to do it.

Votes have to be called as well to count. It's in the OP.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Truth be told, if I am mafia and have a chance to hammer at MYLO I am absolutely not conservative. Dizzy and I won a game that way. People think I am way more anti-hammer than I really am.

Anyway no matter. I would be fine clearing c4/Hally from hammerthings just because I don't think it's a team theory that is likely to drive the Day 3 elimination anyway.

A hammer where you had to vote in thread and in the poll for it to count?

Sure. I'd have two tabs open and make it almost simultaneous. I wouldn't do it on a mobile phone maybe.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Axe has definitely talked about sheeping Alison lol, tbh I think it's kind of scummy

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Truth be told, if I am mafia and have a chance to hammer at MYLO I am absolutely not conservative. Dizzy and I won a game that way. People think I am way more anti-hammer than I really am.

Anyway no matter. I would be fine clearing c4/Hally from hammerthings just because I don't think it's a team theory that is likely to drive the Day 3 elimination anyway.

A hammer where you had to vote in thread and in the poll for it to count?

Sure. I'd have two tabs open and make it almost simultaneous. I wouldn't do it on a mobile phone maybe.

Perhaps this is why I think it's more difficult than you guys seem to

[MacDougall]

Okay so are you saying that I shouldn't be ruling out teams that include Jay?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

NAA talked about sheeping Alison on Dizzy and MR, but he has provided his own unique aggression against Mac.

[Hally]

if c4 is a wolf it’s with NAA ~always imo

c4/nook - idk why mac thinks this is possible but it really seems like a stretch to me based on D2
c4/mac - mac has absolutely no reason to bury c4 when NAA or nook are sitting there as free mislunches
c4/jay - i don’t think jay votes c4 EoD2 as w/w, just seems pointlessly risky

does anyone disagree with this?

[Hally]

Axe has definitely talked about sheeping Alison lol, tbh I think it's kind of scummy

why?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yes I'm obviously ccing and we shouldn't kill either of us

Why would you make him claim again wtf

Because he's about to get chopped

HE ALREADY CLAIMED DONT FUCKING MAKE HIM DO IT AGAIN JESUS CHRIST

Anyways I hard CC put me over today idc

then vote wilgy

No we should never kill either of us

can't stand the fps claims

And I can't stand mechanical incompetence, yet here we fucking are

@MacDougall, do you think this is a sequence Nanook fakes? It's not the frustration I am referring to in isolation, but the reason for the frustration. If he was really trying to cover for Wilgy and felt the requests for claim clarity got in the way, then that's what causes this -- town indicative. I am not "certain", but it sure looks that way to me.

[MacDougall]

I would describe the Nook/C4 interactions as completely plausible and good quality distancing. Caveat is that Nanook doesn't usually go in for distancing in my experience. If it wasn't for my knowledge of that I would laugh about you clearing that option. But because I do... I think you're probably correct but like... not confidently saying that.

[MacDougall]

Yes I'm obviously ccing and we shouldn't kill either of us

Why would you make him claim again wtf

Because he's about to get chopped

HE ALREADY CLAIMED DONT FUCKING MAKE HIM DO IT AGAIN JESUS CHRIST

Anyways I hard CC put me over today idc

then vote wilgy

No we should never kill either of us

can't stand the fps claims

And I can't stand mechanical incompetence, yet here we fucking are

@MacDougall, do you think this is a sequence Nanook fakes? It's not the frustration I am referring to in isolation, but the reason for the frustration. If he was really trying to cover for Wilgy and felt the requests for claim clarity got in the way, then that's what causes this -- town indicative. I am not "certain", but it sure looks that way to me.

Yes it does look that way. No I don't think it's impossible to fake. I think Nanook's progression and read on me is way more indicative of him being mafia that what you are quoting here is indicative of him being town.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Axe has definitely talked about sheeping Alison lol, tbh I think it's kind of scummy

why?

Because it's him and Alison

The only reason I don't consider it outing is because it may be less than sincerely driven from townAxe

[Hally]

as i see it the two likeliest teams by far are NAA/c4 and NAA/nook

if there’s some flaw in my solving that makes NAA not a wolf i currently don’t see it

[JaggedJimmyJay]

as i see it the two likeliest teams by far are NAA/c4 and NAA/nook

if there’s some flaw in my solving that makes NAA not a wolf i currently don’t see it

Can you remind me if you had something that cleared NAA/Mac for you? Or is it your isolated Mac read that gets you there?

[Hally]

as i see it the two likeliest teams by far are NAA/c4 and NAA/nook

if there’s some flaw in my solving that makes NAA not a wolf i currently don’t see it

and even on the off chance i’m wrong on mac, i think he’s pretty much only ever with NAA too

[Hally]

as i see it the two likeliest teams by far are NAA/c4 and NAA/nook

if there’s some flaw in my solving that makes NAA not a wolf i currently don’t see it

Can you remind me if you had something that cleared NAA/Mac for you? Or is it your isolated Mac read that gets you there?

i think he’s a villager but even if i’m wrong i think he has to be with NAA so again i go back to NAA being a wolf

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Nevermind that answers my question

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I thought I'd be able to muster some amount of care for this game but I absolutely cannot. So I'm going with lazy reads, hally town cause they're high posting, mac town cause he wore me down

Flip a coin between axe and Jay

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

[Hally]

when i read the game off associations i arrive at NAA being a wolf

when i read the game off play i arrive at NAA being a wolf

if he’s a villager i really don’t know where i’m going wrong

[MacDougall]

fine

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: notanaxehole] aubergine

[Hally]

acknowledging


if we’re voting now, intent to vote NAA

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

[VOTE: axe] aubergine

K

[MacDougall]

just vote him and see if there's a hammer or not

[MacDougall]

we aren't winning this game if axe is town clearly so I'm done

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hammer is 4, so not really in "threat" range unless both NAA and Mac are town. Doubt.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

Jk

[Hally]

voting NAA in my next post

[JaggedJimmyJay]

L-1. @Hally what is your feeling

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Naw fuck it let's get this done

[VOTE: axe] aubergine

[Hally]

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

sorry if wrong

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Scotty hammer

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

GGs ... ?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

If they're town mafia can just say game is over there's no way to stop a NK

[Hally]

god my heart is pounding

[MacDougall]

Jay? Did you just school us?