Summer Sh*t Day 5

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Final!?!!

Poll ended at Sat May 20, 2023 5:42 pm

Neon
0
No votes
Psv
0
No votes
Spf
2
25%
Eek!
6
75%
 
Total votes: 8
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4

#2051

Post by potentialsheltervet »

I'm not sure why but this website keeps fighting with my laptop.
I'd assume the poll closes at 4 (central time). I hope SOMEONE other than me/SPF pops in to engage but I'm not confident that will happen.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4

#2052

Post by staypositivefriend »

i was antsy during that hour ii was gone thinking that maybe people had come back and started posting again

but nope

.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4

#2053

Post by Roxy »

potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 3:33 pm I'm not sure why but this website keeps fighting with my laptop.
I'd assume the poll closes at 4 (central time). I hope SOMEONE other than me/SPF pops in to engage but I'm not confident that will happen.
Yep 4 your time, 5 my time and 10 splints time
;)
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4

#2054

Post by potentialsheltervet »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 4:34 pm i was antsy during that hour ii was gone thinking that maybe people had come back and started posting again

but nope

.
Yep. At this point Dennis is going to get elimmed and... I just that's the end.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4

#2055

Post by staypositivefriend »

i hope that dennis not showing up for this EOD is a sign that he's mafia
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4

#2056

Post by staypositivefriend »

possibly confirmation biased thinking but yeah
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4

#2057

Post by Roxy »

Smack!


Image


Sun was shinning and everyone decided it was the perfect beach day. fingersplints and Roxy set their chairs up and immediately proceeded to nap and ignore everyone.
The remaining five of the group decided that they wanted to play some beach volleyball. Since there were five, someone had to sit out. After some bickering they all decided on Dennis. He was so young that he would add a youthful advantage to either team and they decided that was just not fair. Dennis was ok with this as he didn’t trust anyone; not even to keep score on the volleyball game.

Everyone was really into the game. They all jumped high, and dove into the sand. Set. Spike. Point. Both teams were determined to win.
Dennis diligently kept score and looked out for rule infractions. He too, took it seriously.
The game was tied. Anyone could win. Suddenly Neon jumped into the air and spiked the ball so hard. Everyone gasped as the ball went out of bounds and straight at Dennis. He yelped and tried to move out of the way, but he wasn’t quick enough. the force of the volleyball was enough to knock him unconscious, so he had to go home.

Dennis has been eliminated. He was BBQ Picnic (Town)
;)
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2058

Post by potentialsheltervet »

Frustrated
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2059

Post by potentialsheltervet »

Sorry, Dennis. I didn't think you were mafia.
I kinda want to pursue my heart's desire and just vote neon.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2060

Post by potentialsheltervet »

Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2061

Post by staypositivefriend »

:/
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2062

Post by staypositivefriend »

pretty demotivating if im being honest
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2063

Post by staypositivefriend »

potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 5:08 pm Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.
if sig is mafia then i think there's a decent chance you end up dying

saying this to possibly wifom him into leaving you alive if he is mafia
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2064

Post by potentialsheltervet »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 5:53 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 5:08 pm Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.
if sig is mafia then i think there's a decent chance you end up dying

saying this to possibly wifom him into leaving you alive if he is mafia
No thank you, I'd rather not be left alive at this point. I'm so tired.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2065

Post by potentialsheltervet »

I'm voting Neon next cycle and I doubt anything will change my mind.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2066

Post by potentialsheltervet »

I imagine neon will vote me. Sig might vote SPF. SPF will vote sig. I will vote neon.
Merry go round.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2067

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 5:53 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 5:08 pm Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.
if sig is mafia then i think there's a decent chance you end up dying

saying this to possibly wifom him into leaving you alive if he is mafia
PSV won't die because they are gonna snap vote me

I won't die because I'm the town getting snap voted

Basically you or sig is dying and the other is mafia probs

GGs.
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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2068

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

Game was lost the minute I became the target of bad omgus like d2
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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2069

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

Alternatively psv is actually just mafia but.

Thing of it is that only push me when I vote them lol
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2070

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

I've intentionally tested this over and over and they only vote me and target me when I vote them
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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2071

Post by staypositivefriend »

@potentialsheltervet - in a world where i end up dead tonight, please don't snapvote neon. ideally, please don't snapvote at all
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2072

Post by staypositivefriend »

Neon wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 9:38 pm Alternatively psv is actually just mafia but.

Thing of it is that only push me when I vote them lol
do u think psv is town?
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2073

Post by staypositivefriend »

this conversation made me realize who i think the final mafia is

mafia better kill me so that i don't say

uwu
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2074

Post by staypositivefriend »

i think i will most likely be safe from the nightkill except for a world where exactly sig is mafia and he wants to pit neon and psv against each other

maybe?
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2075

Post by staypositivefriend »

i think that a world where i am alive will be very telling regardless of who is alive with me
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2076

Post by staypositivefriend »

i hope i die though tbh
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2077

Post by staypositivefriend »



me @ the mafia
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2078

Post by potentialsheltervet »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 10:00 pm i hope i die though tbh
Don't we all.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2079

Post by potentialsheltervet »

Or maybe I'll vote sig. Who knows.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2080

Post by potentialsheltervet »

Neon wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 9:37 pm Game was lost the minute I became the target of bad omgus like d2
Yes, I singlehandedly lost the game twelve people were in. My bad. I'll just go to the shame circle.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2081

Post by staypositivefriend »

potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 10:18 pm Or maybe I'll vote sig. Who knows.
do u think neon's posts rn are towny?

(asking for a friend)
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2082

Post by potentialsheltervet »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 10:20 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 10:18 pm Or maybe I'll vote sig. Who knows.
do u think neon's posts rn are towny?

(asking for a friend)
Ehh. Tossup. I don't see why she would bother implying she thinks I'm town if she's mafia. I believe her most recent Poe was me/Dennis.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2083

Post by staypositivefriend »

i find them kind of towny but shrug
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2084

Post by staypositivefriend »

i wrote a very long post outlining my worldview and who i think the mafia are in each conceivable world but i havent decided if im going to post it yet

maybe like 10 minutes before the deadline so that the mafia doesnt have time to prepare around it

idk
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2085

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 9:59 pm
Neon wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 9:38 pm Alternatively psv is actually just mafia but.

Thing of it is that only push me when I vote them lol
do u think psv is town?
For the most part? No.
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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2086

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

Paranoia exists solely over treatment of me
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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2087

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 10:19 pm
Neon wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 9:37 pm Game was lost the minute I became the target of bad omgus like d2
Yes, I singlehandedly lost the game twelve people were in. My bad. I'll just go to the shame circle.
In the sense that it has become very easy in a world where you are town to just keep you and me alive until f3 and get a free win...

Yes. I've been playing around with if I think a wolf bothers trying to play around me how you have and I think they do but it's a hard juxtaposition with the fact that if your town we are specifically here to tunnel each other
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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2088

Post by staypositivefriend »

okay
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2089

Post by staypositivefriend »

i'm just going to say that i have one very confident townread, one person i'm leaning on being wolf with a reasonable amount of confidence, and i think the game is probably easy to solve FMPOV depending on who i'm alive with

or, i'll be dead and i won't have to worry about it
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2090

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

staypositivefriend wrote: Thu May 18, 2023 12:49 am i wrote a very long post outlining my worldview and who i think the mafia are in each conceivable world but i havent decided if im going to post it yet

maybe like 10 minutes before the deadline so that the mafia doesnt have time to prepare around it

idk
I probubbly should've done what I always do in FX closed the thread ignored it and than snap voted

Outlining my thoughts here is really dumb. *sigh*
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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2091

Post by staypositivefriend »

okay

i will be posting my thoughts roughly 10 minutes before the deadline

if i end up dead then i would strongly consider sheeping my thoughts/taking them into serious consideration. at the very least, please do not snap-vote in that world

if i'm still alive then alright then lol
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2092

Post by potentialsheltervet »

staypositivefriend wrote: Thu May 18, 2023 4:15 pm okay

i will be posting my thoughts roughly 10 minutes before the deadline

if i end up dead then i would strongly consider sheeping my thoughts/taking them into serious consideration. at the very least, please do not snap-vote in that world

if i'm still alive then alright then lol
Okay
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2093

Post by staypositivefriend »

so…………

let’s start with sig:

sig doesn’t really have a progression on seanzie to speak of. there isn't anything to analyze here, because he didn't talk about seanzie until after seanzie was already dead, and didn't have much of a presence in the game to speak of at the time

his progression on falcon is a bit more telling, though:
sig wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 1:08 pm I'm eyeballing.
1. PSV for their low poster/no poster push + general vibes.
2. Dennis for his posting style and defense of kate I need to
3. Falcon for being well within his scum range.
sig wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 1:11 pm
Kate wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 1:08 pm Do you think Dennis and falcon could be w/w?
It would be odd given they were both just mafia, but so far they're in the POE so it is a possibility.
sig does come right out of the gate saying that he thinks falcon is well within his scumrange on d1, and signal boosting the idea that falcon is a wolf
sig wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 1:40 pm
tedxtr wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 5:37 pm Does falcon still have that meta where if he doesn’t do anything he’s a wolf and if he puts in some effort he’s a villa?

Might just vote him if that’s the case, but i’m not sure
yes this is 100% still accurate.
sig wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 2:02 pm Falcon, PSV, Dennis, and maybe Ted(?) are my four

I don't think Ted/Falcon or Pyxxy/Falcon are W/W if Falcon is mafia both are cleared. But, I also have no idea why I just wrote that about Pyxxy.

PSV and SPF I need to ISO.

Camilla while being a solid Civ wasn't the only one so that points to one of her legacy reads being correct.

I disagree with the people who say a teammate wouldn't bus D1/D2. If you have a clear mafia read then I could see it. For example, in this case Falcon is nearly a consensus of the strong town reads at the moment, so I could see a bus there. D1 a bus could happen if you got caught up in the moment.
on d2, after seanzie has already died, sig also does give a boost to ted’s suspicions on falcon, and actively puts falcon in his immediate POE

from seanzie/falcon's side, there's nothing to read into here. seanzie did not interact with or mention sig at all. falcon also did not interact with or mention sig at all

i feel like i should have more to talk about here, but i honestly don't. sig was just not very involved with the conversations surrounding seanzie or falcon in general, which makes it difficult to analyze him from a more holistic pov

that said, i do have some thoughts about sig’s overall approach to seanzie/falcon, but i’m going to put a pin in that until i’ve completed the rest of the analysis

so, let’s move on to neon:
Seanzie wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 9:23 am
Neon wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 3:04 am
Seanzie wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 8:34 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 8:32 pm @Seanzie How are you drawing your conclusion? Do you not like Taylor Swift?
You entered with a song rather than a post. The first post is always the hardest for a wolf.
Why am I scum my lord?
Finally gettin' the respect I deserve.
Neon wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 7:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 7:08 pm im mafia tbh
Checks out

Vote: SPF
This looks like partners af.
Seanzie wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 9:37 am
Neon wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 9:31 am Why does that make me scum though? Why can't I just have the same thought you do my lord.
Because I'm so good at this game I can tell the difference between people having thoughts and TMI.
Seanzie wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 9:37 am
Neon wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 9:31 am Why does that make me scum though? Why can't I just have the same thought you do my lord.
Because I'm so good at this game I can tell the difference between people having thoughts and TMI.
so, the notable thing to me here is that seanzie does go out of his way to shade neon quite a lot in the early stages of the game. the shade is partially directed at me/PSV too, but the bulk of it seems to be directed at neon. ....hm. gonna put a pin in that thought for a moment

seanzie and neon interact a few more times throughout their ISO, but there isn't much to their interactions. i will note that seanzie did maintain his FOS on neon throughout his entire ISO
falcon45ca wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:08 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:06 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:03 pm
tedxtr wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 6:52 pm [VOTE: psv ] aubergine

nothing personal
Whoa




Kinda sounds personal
Hi. Why are you sheeping neon?

Neon is supremely town Neon.





There are a few signs I've learned to look for...like, she might be fakin' it? But nah
falcon45ca wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 2:30 pm
Neon wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 3:24 am
falcon45ca wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:08 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:06 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:03 pm
tedxtr wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 6:52 pm [VOTE: psv ] aubergine

nothing personal
Whoa




Kinda sounds personal
Hi. Why are you sheeping neon?

Neon is supremely town Neon.





There are a few signs I've learned to look for...like, she might be fakin' it? But nah
What makes me town here?

It's a combination of a few things, including your anime gif's & general solve energy.
falcon45ca wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 11:48 am Oh sweet, Neon is still town.

Let the summer sheep continue
now, on the other hand, falcon’s treatment of neon is very different from seanzie’s treatment of her. falcon townread neon quite strongly right out of the gate ,and he talked about/referenced his tr on her a LOT

in my initial analysis, i thought this was a point in favor of neon being town, and i honestly do still kind of feel that way…..it’s just pretty rare for wolves to go out of their way to strongly tr their partners like that, and some of the posts that falcon makes toward neon do look fairly pockety
Neon wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 4:36 pmVote: Sean
wrt to neon’s progression on seanzie, she talked TO seanzie quite a lot (particularly regarding his read on her), but she didn’t talk ABOUT seanzie much in general. she did end up silently voting for seanzie right around this point, for reasons that are a bit unclear/confusing to me

at this time, the seanzie wagon had already gained momentum, so kind of hard to give towncred here. it is positioned a bit like a bussing vote would be
Neon wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:35 am
Camilla wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 11:59 am
Neon wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 4:12 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 3:15 am im not actually sure if i townlean neon anymore because the specific stuff i was soul townreading (like comfort/consistency in her wolfread on me and psv) is something that is likely to be more playstyle indicative for neon than alignment indicative. i stand by the other reads that i said in the last page
Hmmm. I really like this post.

Town Core

Neon
SPF
Falcon
Why Falcon?
Vibes
Neon wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:45 pm Could be falcon. He pocketed me just last game as scum. I'm not really that pocketed here as my read there is mostly fake lol
neon’s progression on falcon is a bit more interesting - she starts off by putting falcon in her towncore on d1, though i find it notable that she says that her read on him is “mostly fake” on d1:
Neon wrote: Sun May 07, 2023 11:19 am Falcon is town

Sauce: me
Neon wrote: Sun May 07, 2023 11:29 am Quiet barely active doesn't give a fuck falcon is usually town ime he just wolfed and actually tried I think falcon is very much the type of player who cares about not letting his pack down so he's more active when scum.

Also also he just pocketed me as wolf and I'm not sure he's try to do literally the exact same thing two games in a row. That's uh less likely to be true though.
Neon wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 4:52 pm I think falcon has a 75% chance of being town
her townread on falcon seems to grow in confidence quite a lot when falcon became a wagon on d2, though. she defends him pretty actively and emphasizes that he is town multiple times

she also kind of like ...gives up around this time? she seems adamant that falcon is town but doesn't really do anything to shift the momentum at all. ...i also have some thoughts here, but gonna wait until the end of this analysis to say them

now, let's move on to PSV:
Seanzie wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 8:39 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 8:37 pm
Seanzie wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 8:34 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 8:32 pm @Seanzie How are you drawing your conclusion? Do you not like Taylor Swift?
You entered with a song rather than a post. The first post is always the hardest for a wolf.
...really
I am a rule follower. I am abiding by the rules.
You seem quite worried about a page 1 read. I'd vote you if I could.
seanzie essentially treats PSV the same way she treated neon - he opens d1 by putting some pressure on PSV and calling her wolfy

this read does shift quite a bit, though
Seanzie wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 12:30 pm
Neon wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 11:00 am
Seanzie wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 8:03 am
Neon wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 12:41 am
Camilla wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 12:18 am
potentialsheltervet wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 11:56 pm
Camilla wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 11:36 pm There's a certain level of terseness and defensiveness displayed by PSV that caught my eye as everyone else kind of just shrugged off Seanzie's "suspicions" which felt more like a shitpost but PSV kind of just interpreted it in a serious manner.
He said serious read, so I took it seriously. I find his reasoning lackluster.
There was very little questioning of you and/or follow-up from him.

The suspicion's either a Mac-like reaction test or just a shitpost as I don't think it's sincere in the slightest.
Well see the thing is it's a reaction test but something tells me PSV is actually gonna get tunneled by Sean now.
*Checks to do list*

Make breakfast

Work out

Play guitar

Write final exams

tunnel PSV

*puts to do list away*

Wow, how did you know?
We have a history you and I. I have figured it out.

Also because I've been side eyeing PSVs reaction so I assume you would be... but worse.
FTR, it was a joke. What did you find sus about PSV's reaction?

I am making a concerted effort to not "tunnel" people when I can, but even if I wasn't, I thought PSV's reaction was fine.
Seanzie wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 9:04 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 1:47 pm
tedxtr wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 1:45 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 1:43 pm
tedxtr wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 1:41 pm fwiw i feel like giving reads rn would be a LEAK due to 2 non posters

but i’ll add a wolfy remark of i kinda like where things are headed and have noticed nothing that i was going “huh wat” in my head to

a bit of a thing i spotted was alice stating a rand v read on seanzie and then making a post to spf saying she shouldn’t give him an easy villa pass, gth it feels bad but if i’m thinking about it, i don’t see what point it accomplishes as a wolf. might be a villagery progression
What do you mean by you like where things are headed?
I don’t disagree with any reads stated etc is what i meant, tho i didn’t read with too much caution

i’m a very lazy d1 player. and this isn’t even d1 yet tbh
I mean, Seanzie is TRing me and Neon is scumreading me so I'm not sure how you agree with both.
I rarely give townreads. You're fine, that's all I'll give.
seanzie does shift over to townreading psv after he opened up by scumreading her, and he drops his suspicions of her rather quickly/abruptly
falcon45ca wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 11:32 am
Lemonfairy wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 10:59 am @falcon45ca

hi falcon what are your reads right now?
could you post a list or something?

I'm TR Neon & SR Kate




PSV actually giving links to their Maf games is pretty towny IMO, tho I've not yet compared their games.




After that I'll have to do some digging, I've barely read anything
and even more interestingly, falcon’s treatment of PSV is pretty similar to seanzie’s treatment of her. in both cases, both of them started off by pushing on PSV for a while and calling her wolfy, and then both shifted to her being town

that's ....hm. again, let me finish this analysis before i give my thoughts on that

let’s take a look at psv’s progression on seanzie/falcon:
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 6:12 pm I think of the people who have interacted with me, I feel best about Seanzie and Neon, since both are sticking to their guns in spite of thread flow-- Seanzie in saying my responses felt okay when others said they didn't, Neon saying they didn't feel okay when others said they had.
psv does start off by townreading seanzie, though she wasn’t really around while he was being wagoned and generally did not have the chance to react to him being in danger. there's not much of a progression to speak of here
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:12 pm I think I feel fine about falcon, Neon, and Seanzie thus far.
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:19 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:17 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:12 pm I think I feel fine about falcon, Neon, and Seanzie thus far.
why falcon?
He seems chill in a town way.
so, psv also starts off d1 by townreading falcon (in tandem w/seanzie). she does acknowledge there are concerns about falcon that she disagrees with, but that there “isn’t enough substance” to defend that read:
potentialsheltervet wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 6:39 pm
tedxtr wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 6:31 pm i've read sean's iso, and psv is not clear at all
What's your fixation with trying to push me, ted? There are legitimate concerns with sig/six, falcon (still disagree but not enough substance to really fight it) and Dennis, yet you insist on pooping and then throwing it at me.
potentialsheltervet wrote: Sun May 07, 2023 6:50 pm
Kate wrote: Sun May 07, 2023 6:20 pm
Neon wrote: Sun May 07, 2023 11:29 am Quiet barely active doesn't give a fuck falcon is usually town ime he just wolfed and actually tried I think falcon is very much the type of player who cares about not letting his pack down so he's more active when scum.

Also also he just pocketed me as wolf and I'm not sure he's try to do literally the exact same thing two games in a row. That's uh less likely to be true though.
I'd ask you to reconsider your thoughts here.
Town falcon is more aggressive and solvy. Wolf falcon become aggressive later game and starts making fake arguments. Read his iso, it won't take long. There is absolutely nothing about psv that would make him have such a firm read. He's doing the same thing seanzie did day 1 with me as the target.

And he's definitely pocketing you.
See, what happened last game was falcon was very aggressive very early with Zenge, Zenge snapped back, and falcon was mafia. Falcon was super aggressive then essentially dropped off the map.
I guess the point being I saw so much disagreement about falcon and his meta last game, and this point doesn't align with what I saw either, that I'm just going to ignore him and hope the wolves are elsewhere tbh
potentialsheltervet wrote: Sun May 07, 2023 10:05 pm
Kate wrote: Sun May 07, 2023 10:00 pm I feel like @MacDougall ... is anybody reading my posts? Lol
I'm reading, but I don't agree on falcon so I don't want to vote there. Sorry.
when falcon becomes a real wagon on d2, PSV is pretty blunt/adamant about the fact that she isn’t willing to vote for falcon and that she just doesn't want him to die

similarly to neon, PSV kind of "gives up" here too, in the sense that she seems adamant that falcon is town but she doesn't really do anything to sway the momentum or save falcon from dying

so....okay. i want to make some observations here:

psv

-it stands out to me that seanzie drops his suspicions of PSV very, very quickly, and made several posts throughout d1 that feel fairly cloying toward her/intended to get on her good side

if i put myself in seanzie’s shoes, and my objective is: “Distance From PSV”, his treatment of her doesn't make a lot of sense. why start off by pushing on your partner and making a big show out of scumreading them, only to shift to townreading them and talking about how they're towny/not scummy anymore? this would diminish any real "distancing" that seanzie had accomplished by pushing PSV at the beginning of the day, and it reads a bit more like a wolf shifting their positioning in an attempt to pocket PSV

-something that also stands out to me is that seanzie and falcon both had the progression of pushing on PSV at the beginning of the game, but then deciding that she’s town and defending her. in both cases, seanzie and falcon’s progressions on PSV are a bit “dynamic” and shift fairly abruptly. my general sense is that W/W progressions tend to be a bit more "clean" and a bit more carefully planned out, and i think the abrupt shift here is a good look for PSV

-on a similar note, i don’t really think that PSV would be bold enough to townread both of her partners in the way she did toward the beginning of d1, and the rest of her play does not really feel like it comes from someone who is trying to powerwolf

-...following that thought further, there is a lack of syncronity in the way that falcon/seanzie/PSV treated each other that makes me struggle to see them as a team as well. it would be weird for seanzie and falcon to come into the game distancing/bussing PSV, but then PSV deciding to townread both of them at the same time. i don't see much of a coherent strategy there

so, i don’t really think it’s PSV - if i’m wrong on that then well, whatever, i guess i just misread the spew badly and that’s on me

neon:

-i do still feel, at a base level, like the way that falcon treated neon throughout d1/d2 reads a bit more like a wolf pocketing a villager than a wolf talking to another wolf, and this is still the strongest point i have in favor of neon being town in general

-i also still find neon's overall progression on falcon hard to buy as a W/W progression. if i put myself in neon's shoes and my partner seanzie just died and my other partner falcon is in danger of dying, i could see her trying to defend him/divert the wagon elsewhere, but i guess what stands out to me is how ...defeated? she was about falcon in general. she was adamant about him being town but did not really meaningfully defend him or try to pull the momentum elsewhere. it is, indeed, a bizarre scum strategy if neon is mafia

-smaller point, but i kind of like how neon has treated my slot in general - if she was intending to pocket me then idk if she would randomly drop lines about how i might be mafia, or say she would instavote me in f3 - her paranoia feels kind of authentic/real to me

-neon’s vote on seanzie on d1 is positioned like a bus vote. this is something to keep in mind, i suppose, but i won't weigh this point too heavily, since the quick formation of the seanzie wagon on d1 means that it could have been pure

so....if i squint really hard and try to envision a world where neon is mafia, it's possible, but it doesn't seem particularly likely to me. i think that neon is a great scum player, and i know she has fooled me before, but i just fail to see a coherent scum strategy in a lot of the stuff that she did

sig:

-i like that sig was attacking falcon on d1 and that he went out of his way to bolster momentum against him on d2. it would be weird for sig to be comfortable with hardbussing on d2 right after his other partner died, unless he was just super prepared/ready to solo endgame, but he hasn't been playing like someone who has a vested interest in doing that

-sig’s conviction on dennis has felt fairly real to me at several points, even if it ended up being wrong. not sure what the point is in locking yourself in a tunnel on one player when he would need multiple miseliminations to win the game if he's maf

-i don't see why he makes the ted kill in a world where he’s maifa

now, on the other hand….

-sig has spoken ~about~ me a lot, but has consistently stopped short of giving any real conclusion. the specific way he has danced around me potentially being mafia without actually committing to it (and prioritizing his read on dennis) does make me worry that he might be trying to set me up

-when i look at each of psv/neon/sig, i feel that i have the least reasons to townread sig overall. i also feel like from a more holistic perspective, the reasons i have to townread neon/psv are a bit stronger than i do for sig

for example, my reasoning to townread psv/neon is largely reliant on me not being able to form a coherent scum strategy out of how they played, whereas the scum strategy in sig's play is a bit more obvious (ie: push on your widely POE'd partner to get cred for endgame, and then coast for as long as possiblee)

so i mean, honestly, i do think that it might just be sig

but anyway, let's do some theorycrafting for a while. here are the possible worlds FMPOV:

WORLD A: I end up dead

in this world, i would lean on the mafia being sig, but i'm not confident enough where i would say you should sheep that

the reason i would lean sig in a world where i'm dead tonight is bcuz PSV has telegraphed that she wants to vote neon, and i can see sig just leaving PSV and neon alive together and hoping they tunnel each other into oblivion. it might be the easiest possible win from his point of view

...whereas it's a little harder to see why psv/neon would kill me as a wolf when i would probably still be pretty pushable from their point of views

World B: I am alive with sig & neon

hm...i'm not so sure about this world, just because it makes sense fmpov for either neon or sig to leave me alive with the other. if sig is a wolf, it makes sense for him to leave me alive with neon, since sig has hinted that he intends to thunderdome me in the f3 multiple times, and he would probably find it easier to convince neon to vote me than to convince PSV to vote me. neon has also said she would instavote me in a f3 (though not sure how serious this is?), and sig might be aware of that

on the other hand, me and sig have also been kind of circling around our suspicions of each other for multiple days now, and from neon's POV, it might be an easy win from her point of view to let me and sig just thunderdome/push each other

even so, i think that in terms of “overall holistic reasons to townread”, i would lean on it being sig in this world, cause i feel like my reasons to TR neon are a bit stronger than my reasons to TR sig

World C: I am alive with sig & PSV

in this world, i ...think i would lean on it being sig over PSV. this is because i have independently concluded that PSV is probably town from my analysis

i will say that this world would probably make me doubt PSV a bit more tho, cause idk why sig would leave me alive with PSV when it seems like neon has an overall higher chance of voting me overall…? it doesn't make a lot of sense for sig to leave me alive with PSV when PSV has been townreading for p much this entire game, whereas it DOES make sense from PSV's perspective to leave me and sig with each other so that we could thunderdome

so i mean, in terms of ~overall solving~, i would probably lean on it being sig in this world, but it would make me a bit paranoid of PSV cause it's hard to see why sig makes a neon kill

so i mean, being fully transparent, if i am alive with sig in any capacity tomorrow, i would probably find it difficult not to vote him. so...

World D: I am alive with neon and PSV

i think the main point in favor of neon in this world would be i’m not sure what her endgame would be? if she's a wolf she might perceives me as having a higher chance of hammering PSV than sig would, since i’ve been defending neon/calling her towny all game? but i've been townreading PSV all game too, so idk if neon would want to bank on that

if i'm doing a direct comparison btwn neon and psv, i do townlean psv a bit more, since:

A. neon’s positioning on seanzie feels more like bus positioning, in comparison to PSV
B. the spew is a bit better for PSV than for neon, cause falcon & seanzie kind of conceded that PSV was town rather awkwardly after taking heat, whereas their progressions on neon were a bit more static and easier to read as "Strategic"
c. a lot of the reasons why i was townreading neon feel a bit flimsier in this world

for example, in this world, it would be a little harder for me to maintain the towncred im giving to neon for falcon tring her throughout d2, when falcon did the SAME THING to psv, but arguably in a townier way with the way he re-evaluated her

the same thing applies to neon’s treatment of falcon - one of the main reasons why i’ve been townreading neon is specifically because the way she defended falcon throughout d2 didn’t really seem like something a wolf would do, but PSV did exactly the same, so i couldn’t give towncred for that without also giving it to PSV

…which does make me think that sig might just be mafia but yeah
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2094

Post by staypositivefriend »

gl gl
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4

#2095

Post by fingersplints »

Sand in your crack

Image

After everything that had gone down for this extremely long weekend with fingersplints and Roxy everyone was ready to just stay in the cabin.....except sig.

Couldn't keep nature boy inside trapped in a damn cabin where he was still sleeping on the stairs bc, hey, it was so comfy but he was thinking a moonlit swim would be so decadent. He headed back out to the beach area of the river.

He dove into the water and it felt so great. He swam and floated for awhile then became tired in that happy way you get after a good day.
He laid out his Rick and Morty beach towel and put his hat over his eyes and just relaxed. It was glorious having this quiet time with no one doing anything stupid. He promptly fell asleep.

A friend noticed sig on the beach and smirked to themselves. They slipped out the side door of the cabin and snuck over to where sig was sleeping.

They proceeded to bury sig up to his neck in sand and ran away giggling like a school kid out at recess.

Hours later, as the sun was coming up, sig woke up and was so relaxed it took him a minute to realize what had happened. And tried to stand up but could not. He kept falling back down on his butt. Pretty soon his butt crack was so full of sand he was in pain every time he moved. Sand had gotten into places that sand should NEVER be. He understood now why the others had left and he left without saying a word to anyone.

sig drove himself home.

He was Moonlight Swim - Townie

It is indeed hammer time today. If you hammer please collect a screenshot and forward it to BOTH hosts. Votes aren’t changeable.

Gro-oo-ovy
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 5

#2096

Post by staypositivefriend »

oh for fucks sake
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 5

#2097

Post by potentialsheltervet »

Well, well, well
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 5

#2098

Post by potentialsheltervet »

I am baffled by the endgame here.
Unless it really is SPF and she's banking on me voting Neon and she'll have free rein to hop aboard whichever one of us she chooses, since I think the crossvote is pretty obvious.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 5

#2099

Post by potentialsheltervet »

staypositivefriend wrote: Thu May 18, 2023 5:51 pm oh for fucks sake
GTH, who is mafia? Me or neon?
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 5

#2100

Post by potentialsheltervet »

@Neon are you around? Real timing would be super beneficial rn.
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