[TOWN WIN] Cool Bug Mafia

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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2101

Post by _ExLight »

shqqabebwhajdmrmwmsmskkaaixinsannGhljsbbfbbr s sncjkwnwjsixoo osnsm
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2102

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:01 pm I don't like this.
Alignment-wise?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2103

Post by Wiml »

I'm going to hold off discussing it for now.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2104

Post by _ExLight »

[VOTE: unvite] aubergine
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2105

Post by Wiml »

_ExLight wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:05 pm [VOTE: unvite] aubergine
Thank you.
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#2106

Post by Michelle »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:53 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:49 pm
Spoiler: show
falcon45ca wrote: Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:03 pm
Roxy wrote: Tue Aug 01, 2023 11:52 am also I miss splints this game and also SVS. :(

I've got reasons to TR a few players, and as of now I'm looking at Epi, Lime & Kate.
falcon45ca wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:47 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Tue Aug 01, 2023 10:26 am
Kate wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 5:30 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 5:28 pm
Kate wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 5:26 pm Hi everybody 😀
Hey Kate! Cool to finally play a game with you. I can't be certain, but I suspect we might have a decent yin-yang dynamic available to us, you and I. Your style is heavily intuitive, and it's a nice complement to, well, you'll see.

Only applicable if you received a town role. :smile:
I'm town. I'm always town!

Come be towny and do the Kate town stuff

@Kate Are you able to talk to me about some reads?





I've glanced at your argument re: Neon & her coherency as Maf v T, what else ya got?
falcon45ca wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:06 pm
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:57 pm Why are yall voting for 7up?
Image




Talk to me about what you find in his ISO
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:34 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:06 pm
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:57 pm Why are yall voting for 7up?
Image




Talk to me about what you find in his ISO
Carbonation, sugar and artificial flavorings.
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:38 pm I just played 2 games with him.

1. Bad. Was quiet and evasive, but popping in and out and still personable.

2. Good. More involved in solving. Much more. Still personable.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:59 pm
Lime Coke wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:56 pm Sorry yesterday was busy as hell for me and today relatively the same.

Granted I knew about today, yesterday's wasn't expected.

Anyways....

I'm way far behind so my reads have been messed up.

I see that Wiml at least is giving me a chance so I'll lean town there.

Idk who else I'm completely lost.
my ISO is short, read me and tell me what you think.

spoiler,
Spoiler: show
I've been mostly lazy until recently.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:00 pm Also Falc's ISO is short, maybe respond there?
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:10 pm
Lime Coke wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:56 pm Sorry yesterday was busy as hell for me and today relatively the same.

Granted I knew about today, yesterday's wasn't expected.

Anyways....

I'm way far behind so my reads have been messed up.

I see that Wiml at least is giving me a chance so I'll lean town there.

Idk who else I'm completely lost.
Hi Brad, do you have an idea of how much you'll be able to read before EoD?
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:14 pm I... sincerely hope that Lime Coke isn't town.

Will wait for his catch up.
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:19 pm
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:59 pm Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?
Unnecessary shade for a wagon still sitting in self pres range without reading the game noted
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:07 pm careful to give me too much credit there Jay. Half my posts are about fettuccini.
Michelle wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:08 pm
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:40 pm Interested in hearing from anybody who has a strong read on Wilgy / Epi / Quin, particularly if you think that they're villagers.

They're players who I don't know very well and all tend to fall into the category of "has towny moments but nothing conclusive".
I think Epi is town. It's not like he is out of his scum range or I have a big experience playing with him, but I liked his tone and solve.

Wilgy is relaxed and his jokes are funny - I tend to give town reads for players with good sense of humor. Also I liked his focus on Quin's vote and the way he talked about it

Quin is fluid in votes and reads, things I consider to be villagery. I don't remember meta, last time we were wolves together and I remember he was more stiff.
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:28 pm Lime Coke's probably not coming back, is he?

(Appreciate the responses, taking my time going through them).
Roxy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:53 pm have had an wild afternoon and need to get Ariya fast. So I have to vote now vote limey
I cannot read him one way or the other except the disappearing act is never a good sign. I'll thank Wiml for this if we get a hit but will not blame them if we don't. I do like their case and felt they have the knowledge of Limey that I just don't.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:05 pm
Kate wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 8:40 pm So it must be Quin, diet Pepsi and poor poor Dr wolfy.

*solved*
How dare you.
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:14 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:59 pm
Roxy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:53 pm have had an wild afternoon and need to get Ariya fast. So I have to vote now vote limey
I cannot read him one way or the other except the disappearing act is never a good sign. I'll thank Wiml for this if we get a hit but will not blame them if we don't. I do like their case and felt they have the knowledge of Limey that I just don't.
Hmmm...

If Brad is town, does W Roxy have the need to stack here sheeping the Wiml?
If Brad is actually town, Roxy looks good for not immediately jumping on the "it's a difference check, Wiml looks bad" train that seems all too tantalising for a wolf to push in that scenario.

But I think Roxy's approach to Lime has been good regardless of his alignment (and unrelated to my alignment as well).
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:16 pm Wilgy, will you please move back onto a non-vanity wagon before EoD? Just to avoid shenanigans since Lime will probably self pres at some point.
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:18 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:05 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:04 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:59 pm
Roxy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:53 pm have had an wild afternoon and need to get Ariya fast. So I have to vote now vote limey
I cannot read him one way or the other except the disappearing act is never a good sign. I'll thank Wiml for this if we get a hit but will not blame them if we don't. I do like their case and felt they have the knowledge of Limey that I just don't.
Hmmm...

If Brad is town, does W Roxy have the need to stack here sheeping the Wiml?
My first guess would be no, though it'd be less about need and more about character. I think mafia Roxy would probably be less inclined to forgive Wiml for being wrong in advance if LC is town. It's just a small hunch though.
Aye, unless it's a team assoc. I know W Roxy is very pro teammate. Wiml/Roxy has some merit there.
This is good to know.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:24 pm Aye, and Idk how much more I have in me to look at ISOs.

I feel that Kate is carrying more threadweight than they should.

PoE
Abigail/Kate, LC/(Wiml/Roxy), Quin

Gut says to trust the others, but I can't explain inherently why. LC going over this cycle is fine, but I don't think as resolving as Kate would be, but who knows, maybe we get Roxy and Wiml off this list.
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:25 pm Oh that thing I was going to say closer to EoD.

Was just going to make note of the fact that Lime Coke left some pretty bad spew in Cyberpunk that let me correctly narrow down the last wolf as a spectator to exactly Wilgy without reading the game in great detail.

Spew reads from a D1 flipped wolf are something to be very, very cautious of as misclears there are often the cause of lost games but I think for Lime in particular spending a bit of time looking at how he approached people early on and how others approached him might benefit us. Just take clearing people on spew alone with a pinch of salt (especially later on).

Just stuff I wanted to out this in case we flip Lime and he's wolfing + I die.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:26 pm [VOTE: Abigail] aubergine

For fun.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:27 pm Wilgy might be one of my top town reads all of a sudden. I just thoroughly buy his hunt as real.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:31 pm A silly gamestate is 9 times out of 10 a pro T gamestate. See champs 2023 game 1 d1. We went full silly.
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:35 pm A lot of my legacy is just under the assumption that we flip Lime Coke and he flips wolf which is the most likely scenario where I die.

Kate is the most likely wolf, followed by Epi/Quin followed a large gap then Wilgy and Abigail.

Falcon's almost always town. Michelle/JJJ very likely to be town but scrutinise if alive for too long. Roxy probably also just a villager but without quite the same level of confidence.

If we don't flip Lime then my legacy is that he's a wolf.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:41 pm If Lime Coke is mafia:

Kate is my top suspect. Epignosis will have to answer for failing to address Lime Coke at all. Quin is also fishy. Kate > Epi = Quin would be my top three.

If Lime Coke is town:

The game is in legitimate jeopardy. Hold everyone's butt to the fire and play hard enough to give town a chance. Mountainous is rarely easy, and I expect a difficult game ahead if this comes to pass. You can still trust some of your initial intuitions and judgments, but be sure to really think through things, talk to each other, and make decisions as a team to the best of your ability. Don't splinter and play in your own bubbles.

If Lime Coke is not eliminated:

He should have been.
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:55 pm GTH legacy 2/2 would be Lime Coke / Kate
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:55 pm Anyway, fingers crossed this flips wolf.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:56 pm I can't even poke at Wiml's desire for a safe EoD anymore Sadness.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:41 pm If Lime Coke is mafia:

Kate is my top suspect. Epignosis will have to answer for failing to address Lime Coke at all. Quin is also fishy. Kate > Epi = Quin would be my top three.

If Lime Coke is town:

The game is in legitimate jeopardy. Hold everyone's butt to the fire and play hard enough to give town a chance. Mountainous is rarely easy, and I expect a difficult game ahead if this comes to pass. You can still trust some of your initial intuitions and judgments, but be sure to really think through things, talk to each other, and make decisions as a team to the best of your ability. Don't splinter and play in your own bubbles.

If Lime Coke is not eliminated:

He should have been.
If Lime Coke is town, I do think Wiml/Roxy becomes very real within the PoE, but I'd still like to see some Kate resolution. I think Kate is a perfectly valid LC teammate, but I think the only ones who aren't compatible are like Falc/Wiml/Jay/Rox.
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:59 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:18 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:39 pm I came across that reading your ISO Neon, but perhaps for the sake of brevity, could you talk to me about your read on Kate?
It's not a great read but Kate knows me possibly as good or better than anyone in this game and generally has a good track record of reading me town including finding me like immediately just last game so her complete flop on reading me correctly and the lack of conviction and the lack of content and the lack of being a loud voice for town. It's concerning.
I just had a lot of crap irl. And if you know me, I'd NEVER blame rl to protect my wolfness. I think that's lame play.
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:59 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:57 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:56 pm If Lime Coke is town, I do think Wiml/Roxy becomes very real within the PoE, but I'd still like to see some Kate resolution. I think Kate is a perfectly valid LC teammate, but I think the only ones who aren't compatible are like Falc/Wiml/Jay/Rox.
If the scenario comes to pass, you should certainly explore that possibility. At least ask the questions and have the conversation, and hold others accountable to participate in it.
Aye, but figured I should point it out before EoD. Who knows, maybe they'll kill me n1 (wouldn't that be somethin?)?
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:00 pm
Kate wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:59 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:18 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:39 pm I came across that reading your ISO Neon, but perhaps for the sake of brevity, could you talk to me about your read on Kate?
It's not a great read but Kate knows me possibly as good or better than anyone in this game and generally has a good track record of reading me town including finding me like immediately just last game so her complete flop on reading me correctly and the lack of conviction and the lack of content and the lack of being a loud voice for town. It's concerning.
I just had a lot of crap irl. And if you know me, I'd NEVER blame rl to protect my wolfness. I think that's lame play.
Good morning Kate! I hope the crap lightens up!
I think I quoted too many posts but Wilgy is not a wolf from his Eod 1.
Agree but likely for different reasons to you. Mind giving a short explanation?
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:07 pm careful to give me too much credit there Jay. Half my posts are about fettuccini.
This one is towny for me. I forgot about it.


A lot of posts don't look like mafia who knows how Brad flips. If I wasn't on phone I could search for them now. Posting and I will come back with them
Spoiler: show

ImageImageImageImageImageImage
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:59 pm Death before cowardice.
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#2107

Post by Michelle »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:59 pm
Lime Coke wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:56 pm Sorry yesterday was busy as hell for me and today relatively the same.

Granted I knew about today, yesterday's wasn't expected.

Anyways....

I'm way far behind so my reads have been messed up.

I see that Wiml at least is giving me a chance so I'll lean town there.

Idk who else I'm completely lost.
my ISO is short, read me and tell me what you think.

spoiler,
Spoiler: show
I've been mostly lazy until recently.
Also, this one. It's not w/w.
Spoiler: show

ImageImageImageImageImageImage
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:59 pm Death before cowardice.
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#2108

Post by Michelle »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:31 pm A silly gamestate is 9 times out of 10 a pro T gamestate. See champs 2023 game 1 d1. We went full silly.
His vote for Abigail was like a reaction test.
It's like the whimsical change of mind of a villager (uninformed)
Spoiler: show

ImageImageImageImageImageImage
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:59 pm Death before cowardice.
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#2109

Post by Michelle »

Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:10 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:59 pm
Lime Coke wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:56 pm Sorry yesterday was busy as hell for me and today relatively the same.

Granted I knew about today, yesterday's wasn't expected.

Anyways....

I'm way far behind so my reads have been messed up.

I see that Wiml at least is giving me a chance so I'll lean town there.

Idk who else I'm completely lost.
my ISO is short, read me and tell me what you think.

spoiler,
Spoiler: show
I've been mostly lazy until recently.
Also, this one. It's not w/w.
If two wolves have the intention to make a distancing interaction is that going like that?
Wilgy- "Hey mate! Look at someone's posts. Or better look at my Iso! Say something!"
Brad- cricket noises.
Nah.
Spoiler: show

ImageImageImageImageImageImage
DrWilgy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:59 pm Death before cowardice.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2110

Post by Wiml »

Agreed with above

(Bunny peed on my socks so I'll be back later)
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2111

Post by Wiml »

I'm back.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2112

Post by Wiml »

I think Wilgy's a villager, I just wish I had something there truly airtight so I could lock in the read and say I was confident leaving Roxy/Ex as my legacy.

Will try to look into his ISO more before EoD.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2113

Post by Wiml »

As for Ex, I'm just going to hold off saying much there for the moment still.

All I'll say wrt recent posts is that I think the frustration is real but I don't find it to be towny.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2114

Post by Wiml »

@DrWilgy just to check, I am correct that you've come off a triple wolf rand streak and this would be your fourth wolf rand in a row if you were wolfing, right?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2115

Post by Wiml »

Just to check I haven't made any further meta mistakes.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2116

Post by Wiml »

@Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2117

Post by Wiml »

(For threadstate reasons, it would probably be better for somebody not named Wiml to talk more to Ex about the posts he wants to be engaged on. They weren't posts directly aimed at me).
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2118

Post by Michelle »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:27 pm As for Ex, I'm just going to hold off saying much there for the moment still.

All I'll say wrt recent posts is that I think the frustration is real but I don't find it to be towny.
Frustration is not alignment indicative fmpov.
Ex's catch up and effort in the game is obvious and he thought that his work is disconsidered and was mad because of it.

Why do you think it's not towny, I wish to understand. Why do you label it as AI?
Spoiler: show

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DrWilgy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:59 pm Death before cowardice.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2119

Post by Michelle »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.
Why is 60% an insane confidence?
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DrWilgy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:59 pm Death before cowardice.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2120

Post by Wiml »

Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:38 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:27 pm As for Ex, I'm just going to hold off saying much there for the moment still.

All I'll say wrt recent posts is that I think the frustration is real but I don't find it to be towny.
Frustration is not alignment indicative fmpov.
Ex's catch up and effort in the game is obvious and he thought that his work is disconsidered and was mad because of it.

Why do you think it's not towny, I wish to understand. Why do you label it as AI?
By not towny I meant NAI.

I was just meaning that it's not something that I'm going to townread.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2121

Post by Wiml »

Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.
Why is 60% an insane confidence?
For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2122

Post by Michelle »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:48 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.
Why is 60% an insane confidence?
For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.
I consider a probably of 50% a coin flip - goes either way. But maybe math is different at you.
A 60% confidence is mild, not strong imo, and it's a wishy washy read without the interntion to solve your slot.
If 60% is strong, how is 90%?
Spoiler: show

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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2123

Post by Wiml »

Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:55 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:48 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.
Why is 60% an insane confidence?
For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.
I consider a probably of 50% a coin flip - goes either way. But maybe math is different at you.
A 60% confidence is mild, not strong imo, and it's a wishy washy read without the interntion to solve your slot.
If 60% is strong, how is 90%?
90% is my Lime Coke read.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2124

Post by DrWilgy »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:05 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:01 pm I don't like this.
Alignment-wise?
No, just game in general wise. I feel that if we don't toss Ex over now it's a danger. I feel that I shouldn't NEED to feel this way suddenly based on something that has nothing to do with my solve.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2125

Post by Michelle »

2 hours and few mins until Eod, my vote is on Roxy and I need activity.

I am back in onr hour or so
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2126

Post by DrWilgy »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:32 pm @DrWilgy just to check, I am correct that you've come off a triple wolf rand streak and this would be your fourth wolf rand in a row if you were wolfing, right?
I was T in Don't Starve that happened at the same time yes, but didn't get my feet down there and was misyeeted early. So effectively yes.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2127

Post by Wiml »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:57 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:55 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:48 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.
Why is 60% an insane confidence?
For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.
I consider a probably of 50% a coin flip - goes either way. But maybe math is different at you.
A 60% confidence is mild, not strong imo, and it's a wishy washy read without the interntion to solve your slot.
If 60% is strong, how is 90%?
90% is my Lime Coke read.
For reference, I would use 25% for a player who I thought was =random chance to be mafia in this situation.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2128

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:57 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:05 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:01 pm I don't like this.
Alignment-wise?
No, just game in general wise. I feel that if we don't toss Ex over now it's a danger. I feel that I shouldn't NEED to feel this way suddenly based on something that has nothing to do with my solve.
Yeah, I agree with that.

I'm kind of stuck with what to do there tbh.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2129

Post by Michelle »

You know what? The game is easy if Wilgy and Wiml are town and we are in agreement we are the town core.

Thoughts?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2130

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:58 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:32 pm @DrWilgy just to check, I am correct that you've come off a triple wolf rand streak and this would be your fourth wolf rand in a row if you were wolfing, right?
I was T in Don't Starve that happened at the same time yes, but didn't get my feet down there and was misyeeted early. So effectively yes.
Alright, ty.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2131

Post by DrWilgy »

Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:01 pm You know what? The game is easy if Wilgy and Wiml are town and we are in agreement we are the town core.

Thoughts?
With how today has developed I don't think there's much of a choice. If there's a W in either you or Wiml T loses.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2132

Post by Wiml »

Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:01 pm You know what? The game is easy if Wilgy and Wiml are town and we are in agreement we are the town core.

Thoughts?
I'm town checking Wilgy just to be sure but I'm inclined to agree.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2133

Post by DrWilgy »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:57 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:05 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:01 pm I don't like this.
Alignment-wise?
No, just game in general wise. I feel that if we don't toss Ex over now it's a danger. I feel that I shouldn't NEED to feel this way suddenly based on something that has nothing to do with my solve.
Yeah, I agree with that.

I'm kind of stuck with what to do there tbh.
Yup, to the point where I'm hesitant to even discuss it.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2134

Post by Michelle »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:59 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:57 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:55 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:48 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.
Why is 60% an insane confidence?
For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.
I consider a probably of 50% a coin flip - goes either way. But maybe math is different at you.
A 60% confidence is mild, not strong imo, and it's a wishy washy read without the interntion to solve your slot.
If 60% is strong, how is 90%?
90% is my Lime Coke read.
For reference, I would use 25% for a player who I thought was =random chance to be mafia in this situation.
I see. It all comes from the idea a mafia rand has 25% probability, right?
But 25% is exactly = rand and it's pretty low.

Whatever, we can let math for endgame.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2135

Post by Michelle »

I was pretty paranoid when I said Wiml bussed Brad, etc.

I also was paranoid this morning that Wilgy is fooling me.

Both these vanished.

I am also extremely tired and I will make a break from the small screen
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2136

Post by Wiml »

Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:04 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:59 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:57 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:55 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:48 pm
Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:40 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 2:34 pm @Roxy how did you come to me being 60% likely to be a wolf yesterday?

That seems like an insane confidence level on me being a wolf for it to come out of nowhere.
Why is 60% an insane confidence?
For reference, I'd probably say my confidence level on Quin flipping wolf was about 50%?

60% is a very strong scumread and yet the read seems to have largely popped out of nowhere. Seeing Roxy be suddenly very confident that I'm the wolf (in spite of attributing the Lime Coke flip to me + previously having me as town) while not really having the explanation to back that up and not seeming to act on that read at all is something that I think is worth at least probing into for further info.
I consider a probably of 50% a coin flip - goes either way. But maybe math is different at you.
A 60% confidence is mild, not strong imo, and it's a wishy washy read without the interntion to solve your slot.
If 60% is strong, how is 90%?
90% is my Lime Coke read.
For reference, I would use 25% for a player who I thought was =random chance to be mafia in this situation.
I see. It all comes from the idea a mafia rand has 25% probability, right?
But 25% is exactly = rand and it's pretty low.

Whatever, we can let math for endgame.
Yeah, that's right. 50% is admittedly more intuitive though.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2137

Post by Wiml »

Michelle wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:07 pm I was pretty paranoid when I said Wiml bussed Brad, etc.

I also was paranoid this morning that Wilgy is fooling me.

Both these vanished.

I am also extremely tired and I will make a break from the small screen
Take a break! You've been very helpful and deserve one lol.
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#2138

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:14 am This is honestly very interesting and I think it's due to a lack of history, but I assure you Wiml, I'm the last person to be cleared.

Like almost ever and under any circumstance. I don't think you need to worry so much about that.
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Re: [D2] Cool Bug Mafia

#2139

Post by Wiml »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:03 pm Associations of Lime Coke and Roxy

From Lime Coke

~Nada~

From Roxy

Spoiler: show
Roxy wrote: Tue Aug 01, 2023 11:50 am Pa - everyone can clear her early but me. I waiting on a couple of responses rn no idea.

Wilgy - has not posted that i have seen nor remember no idea

Epi - read him as bad so in all likely hood he is town but srsly no idea

falcon - is falc'ing it up too soon to say for sure maybe town

JJJ - seems to be trying too hard, not sure what to make of it in older games when you was all gusto and bluster you was bad it has been a long while so I will not use old time play against you. I want to see you have fun playing bc it has been so long since we have played< 3 reserving judgement for now.

Kate - very early game half joking half serious seems normal for Kate. For Town Kate at least for now I am not getting the same weird vibes like last game when you were town but you read as bad for me.

Limey - I think we have one game we have played together I I have hosted you but really have not a clue how to read you this game is different from Sesame Street and from CyberPunk. So I am left twisting and have no idea.

Michelle - usually an easy read for me bc her town shines bright from a vibe/tone this game I think town

Quin - No posts that I seen nor remember I have no idea

Wiml - also another try harder on the site. I hope I remembered to welcome you. I will not suss you nor vote you D 1. Bc you are new to me and I want you to feel welcomed. I am unsure but I think with a couple of days with your tone you will show yourself one way or the other. No idea as of now.

I do not what you expect @falcon45ca as it is so early in D 1 and I need almost the full first 48 to form my own proper reads.

What about you?
Roxy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:53 am
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:44 am I don't think that a potential wolf-Lime Coke just gives up under pressure if one of his initial strong pushers (JJJ) is actually a wolf bussing him.
so you think Limey has just given up?

I cannot guage them so your input would be so farout.
Roxy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 9:40 am
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 9:13 am
Roxy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:53 am
Wiml wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:44 am I don't think that a potential wolf-Lime Coke just gives up under pressure if one of his initial strong pushers (JJJ) is actually a wolf bussing him.
so you think Limey has just given up?

I cannot guage them so your input would be so farout.
Yeah, he's somebody who doesn't enjoy wolfing and tends to have serious motivation issues as a wolf. I think he got scumcased by two very vocal villagers who he respects (at least one of them, me, having a historically accurate read on him with something like 20 games played together) and felt demoralised over it and / or that he couldn't recover from the situation and / or that his team wasn't in a winnable position and so just stopped posting full stop.

The only time he's posted since he initially left the thread after getting scumread has been once to post that tweet / copypasta earlier. Since he initially left, he hasn't put any attempt into solving people, answering questions asked to him, addressing the wagon on him or just playing the game: he just posted one off-topic meme in a way that looks more like he's lolcatting than anything (not really sure if that term is used on this site but lolcatting is when an outed mafia member posts blatantly off topic things to avoid spewing the identity of their partners and is generally an admission of guilt).

This is very uncharacteristic of his town play but not something I'd consider unexpected from his wolf play. He's generally very strong, active and obvious (to me at least) villager who I have a lot of respect for so I'm having a lot of difficulty reconciling that with his behaviour this game after getting cased and I think the reasons he was cased in the first place are still solid as well.
wow thanks so much for this. I am afraid it will no doubt impact my vibe of them as I really have none on them. :srsnod:
Roxy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:53 pm have had an wild afternoon and need to get Ariya fast. So I have to vote now vote limey
I cannot read him one way or the other except the disappearing act is never a good sign. I'll thank Wiml for this if we get a hit but will not blame them if we don't. I do like their case and felt they have the knowledge of Limey that I just don't.

Roxy sought outside perspectives to help her sort Lime Coke. Initially she wasn't sure, and that's okay with me. I think it's good that she specifically sought Wiml's point of view, absorbed it, and then followed it. She didn't have to do that, particularly given that she had just as much justification to vote Abigail instead if she wanted to.

~~~

Conclusion

I think this material looks genuine, from Roxy's side. I get the impression Lime Coke had no consciousness of her role in the game, and that is a good thing for her sake. Probably not his teammate.
Thoughts on this from JJJ?

I think it's a fair point that wolf-Roxy could have chosen to tie the wagons at 4-4 at the time she voted Lime had she instead voted Abigail.

I think the writing was on the wall for Lime at that point even if the wagons theoretically could have been tied but I'm not sure if wolf-Roxy would have necessarily recognised that.
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Re: [D1] Cool Bug Mafia

#2140

Post by Wiml »

Roxy wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:35 am
Epignosis wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:05 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:56 am
Epignosis wrote: Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:54 am I'm finishing this nightcap and thereafter going to make a desperate attempt to sleep. If you have anything to ask, speak now or forever hold your pee.
What sells you on Kate being mafia, and do you believe she can be teamed with Abigail?
I wasn't even looking that way until Roxy said something. I could find the post but I'm tired and it's not like Roxy has a million of them.

I think Kate's milking the "Look how well I read Zenon in Bad Dates." I expected you as the host to have more to say on that front, but okay.

It came across as disingenuous, such that Kate even bobbled the alignment.

Then it takes a million attempts to get a word about Kate, and now these two are just distancing at this point.

It's goofy. There's no interaction between them. They aren't looking to figure each other out. They are lost. I'm going with teammates here.
Kate said a funny thing about high posters being 90% town I took umbridge.
I am not thinking it automatically makes her baddie. I just found it an unusual thing for Kate to post.
You jumping on it is a bit of a ping but tbh I think Kate and Pa are probs both town.
I am trying very hard to not let them become a Pyxxy/Scotty diff check in all games where we elim them bc people auto think *one* must be a wolf and 80% of the time both are town and we waste days determining that.

I honestly believe Kate is trying to change her town game, see her last couple of games as town and you will see a marked difference than her previous town play. She is trying to tone herself down and this is just how I have been reading her the last couple of games. I think she would love to live past D/N/ 1 for once.
Nvm, she probably couldn't have voted Abigail here.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2141

Post by DrWilgy »

Bah
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2142

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:45 pmBah
Got a solid preference for who you think the wolf is or still deciding?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2143

Post by Roxy »

My posts are fluffy
I only vote late when it doesn't matter
I have no reads

After reading that I lost my wim

I'm trying to find it. Not feeling it at all.

Wiml I meant 60% town wigly 100% town
;)
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2144

Post by Wiml »

Roxy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:50 pm My posts are fluffy
I only vote late when it doesn't matter
I have no reads

After reading that I lost my wim

I'm trying to find it. Not feeling it at all.

Wiml I meant 60% town wigly 100% town
Oh alright that seems like it makes more sense instead of you having me as a wolf suddenly.

Fwiw if you're town then I'm pretty confident that Ex is the last wolf anyway and at that point the game ends.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2145

Post by DrWilgy »

Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:47 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:45 pmBah
Got a solid preference for who you think the wolf is or still deciding?
The Ex thing is looming over me like a dark cloud. Making it VERY hard to decide what to do.

Pretty sure I'd go with Ex this cycle based on NKA, but bah.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2146

Post by Wiml »

But I'm sorry you lost WIM.

If I can help with that then please lmk.
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2147

Post by DrWilgy »

Roxy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:50 pm My posts are fluffy
I only vote late when it doesn't matter
I have no reads

After reading that I lost my wim

I'm trying to find it. Not feeling it at all.

Wiml I meant 60% town wigly 100% town
Roxy, you are truly a fantastic human and I enjoy playing mafia with you.

You thinking I'm 100% town freaks me the fuck out lol
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2148

Post by DrWilgy »

[VOTE: Ex] aubergine
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2149

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:53 pm
Wiml wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:47 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:45 pmBah
Got a solid preference for who you think the wolf is or still deciding?
The Ex thing is looming over me like a dark cloud. Making it VERY hard to decide what to do.

Pretty sure I'd go with Ex this cycle based on NKA, but bah.
Understandable.

Fwiw I've seen bigger things than this happen several times with all possible combinations of alignments. I'm just trying to put it out of mind the best I really can.
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Wiml
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Re: [D4] Cool Bug Mafia

#2150

Post by Wiml »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:54 pm
Roxy wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 3:50 pm My posts are fluffy
I only vote late when it doesn't matter
I have no reads

After reading that I lost my wim

I'm trying to find it. Not feeling it at all.

Wiml I meant 60% town wigly 100% town
Roxy, you are truly a fantastic human and I enjoy playing mafia with you.

You thinking I'm 100% town freaks me the fuck out lol
Yeah, you seem nice Roxy.
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