The Late Bronze Age Collapse [END]

#901

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:00 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:40 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:19 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:04 am This means S~V~S could be mafia but did not kill LinearPoint. Therefore I won't be voting S~V~S today.
I don't quite get how the first sentence leads to the second. SVS' odds of being mafia haven't changed. It just means she would be smart enough not to carry a kill when her biggest detractor is a jailkeeper.
I lied about the Night 1 element of my role. Nobody knew that. When S~V~S was tied to my Guillotine suspicion, and Guillotine perished with no stain, I picked S~V~S thinking she might be bold enough to make a kill.

In any event, it didn't block a kill, and we play this out vanilla style.
As we've established this game, people lie about their claimed role mechanics. SVS/whoever could easily have hedged their bets and had 'whoever' make the kill instead.

I just don't think your JK failing moves the needle on SVS' alignment one way or the other.

They don't. I thought by casting individual suspicion on you, I could catch S~V~S in the event that she felt okay to kill.

JJJ keeps putting me in charge of the clink and I don't know what. I'm terrible at it.

#902

Ah well. This has to be won the old fashioned way, and civilians need to act in unison.

So, well, fuck.

#903

I changed my vote to [VOTE: S~V~S] aubergine.

I have to have more faith in myself.

On the surface, I don't feel like S~V~S is looking for mafia. It's all self-defense.

#904

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:40 pm I changed my vote to [VOTE: S~V~S] aubergine.

I have to have more faith in myself.

On the surface, I don't feel like S~V~S is looking for mafia. It's all self-defense.

100% self defense. I got so derailed by day one, by taking so much suspish over something so silly, that it OMGUSed me up. I think I'm a fairly polarized player, my bad game is so much more controlled, that it can be hard for me to see pushes for saying something that was kind of a thoughtless throwaway remark, which I almost never make when bad. So now I am fairly blinded by defensiveness towards those that suspected me for something so trivial.

This is my failing, no one elses. I apologize to the host and to the other players for being so absent. I've become so blinded by my own defensiveness that I'm useless to town.

Gonna stick with my gut re Radishes, they kept up with the "Hrm, what about SVS" pretty much the whole game. Of all the suspish I took, that felt the most insincere to me.

[VOTE: Radishes] aubergine

#905

Also @Epignosis your gut needs some probiotics or summat, lol.

#906

Have now skimmed through SVS' iso. It just has to be her. If it's not, I am helping us lose this game and so be it.

I think Epi put it best when calling it almost entirely self-defense. I'd also add that she is hyperfocused on just one or two things, she doesn't really seem to solve anyone or anything, and there are some conventional wolfy things like appeasing her detractors, point-by-point refuting a case, refusing to vote the main counterwagon, the classic 'maybe it's just best you guys yeet me!', etc etc. I can do a big ol' case that nitpicks this that and the other thing, if anyone wants me to.

Coming off a recent town game where she MVP'd us to victory, this is a stark contrast. I'm sure a large part of her absence is NAI, but it's also just the content within her posts. There is just no meat to it in D1, and it's basically non-existent in D2/D3.

#907

Assuming SVS goes over and flips scum, I'm...not all that convinced it's Falcon anymore. My instinct about the way she talks to/around him in D1 feels like she's fending off a town who has sniffed her out.

Maybe it's SVS/Seanzie?

#908

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:57 am
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:53 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:50 am Level 1 reads say it's either MR/Sean, or SVS/Epi teams
Epi went after SVS pretty hard in D1. It felt unpaired to me.

Your point on his choice of target is a good one. Maybe I'll look again at how his suss on her developed.

I've not independently iso'd SVS yet (I'm wasting time from life admin stuff right now) so will get back to you on her.

I'll take a look as well...perhaps I'm misremembering, but I feel Epi somewhat piggybacked off others sus of SVS slot.

That's partner distancing 101 IMO. Imma take a look

@falcon45ca did you look at this yet?

You're partially right in the sense that Epi was 3rd onto SVS (you first, then Linear). If I'm uncharitable, his case was nitpicky, though I guess D1 cases often are.

But also he rode his sus on SVS for the rest of D1 and into D2. There were available exits (Guillo, cat) and Epi is certainly not afraid to create his own new case himself.

And most of all, with just 6 minutes left in D1 he re-voted SVS, putting her at 4 votes and therefore making SVS set to be eliminated. Linear's mech meant that Cat was elimmed instead, as we now know, but Epi basically doomed SVS with that last minute vote. I guess you could argue Epi somehow saw Linear's hint and understood it, or that he and SVS agreed he'd bus her out and ride the cred to the end, or something. But the simple answer is that Epi was responsible for SVS near-elimination in D1, and that just feels very unlikely to be partnered.

If Epi is scum, it's not with SVS, imo.

#909

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 6:52 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:57 am
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:53 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:50 am Level 1 reads say it's either MR/Sean, or SVS/Epi teams
Epi went after SVS pretty hard in D1. It felt unpaired to me.

Your point on his choice of target is a good one. Maybe I'll look again at how his suss on her developed.

I've not independently iso'd SVS yet (I'm wasting time from life admin stuff right now) so will get back to you on her.

I'll take a look as well...perhaps I'm misremembering, but I feel Epi somewhat piggybacked off others sus of SVS slot.

That's partner distancing 101 IMO. Imma take a look
@falcon45ca did you look at this yet?

You're partially right in the sense that Epi was 3rd onto SVS (you first, then Linear). If I'm uncharitable, his case was nitpicky, though I guess D1 cases often are.

But also he rode his sus on SVS for the rest of D1 and into D2. There were available exits (Guillo, cat) and Epi is certainly not afraid to create his own new case himself.

And most of all, with just 6 minutes left in D1 he re-voted SVS, putting her at 4 votes and therefore making SVS set to be eliminated. Linear's mech meant that Cat was elimmed instead, as we now know, but Epi basically doomed SVS with that last minute vote. I guess you could argue Epi somehow saw Linear's hint and understood it, or that he and SVS agreed he'd bus her out and ride the cred to the end, or something. But the simple answer is that Epi was responsible for SVS near-elimination in D1, and that just feels very unlikely to be partnered.

If Epi is scum, it's not with SVS, imo.

I have not, but I have time this morning.

Tho Epi switching to SVS in the dying minutes of D1 doesnt look partnered, cuz I looked at LPs hint and I find it hard to believe anybody would take that to mean they controlled the lynch.

With other viable wagons, I don't see Maf Epi bussing his partner.

#910

ISO Epi time:

The team SVS/Epi has been pushed a few times, and at least from Epi's ISO, I don't think this is super likely. Epi comes out strong against SVS very early. I feel like very few wolves actually decide early D1 to just full hellbus (especially in a 10er with 2 wolves - who wants to solo 3 days while dodging "why aren't you dead?" continuously), and instead are more likely to distance, and then if their partner gets sus, switch to bussing. Epi's push on SVS doesn't look like that IMO. I think the early aggression also looks pretty good, but I'm not sure if I actually buy the case against SVS.

Day 2 Epi claims and then pushes Guillo. At the time, the claim felt very good since there wasn't a clear scum motive behind it, and I was definite on the scum!Guillo train, and it was indirect evidence for it. Now though, I am confused about the town motive - @Epignosis what was the point of outing your role on D2 if the "I missed my N1 chance" was a lie? An "I'm now vanilla" claim doesn't exactly bait the NK with other claimed PRs, and it seems like town!Epi would just be setting themselves up for a possible roleblock (mine and LP's powers were proven, and very few scum teams would think we could use them multiple times - whereas Epi was scumreading Guillo, so in a town!Epi scum!Guillo world, scum would use disruptives on Epi's claim even with the claim of no more shots). Then Epi claimed to target SVS today - the person Epi has been hounding all game. Why would SVS carry the shot there? I know Epi did put out a "MR/Guillo" team at EoD2, but after a town!Guillo flip, why wouldn't wolf!SVS assume JK!Epi would revisit previous suspicions? Especially for a SVS/Falcon team, I don't see SVS ever carrying that kill, and even in a SVS/MR team, I think it's a crapshoot at best.

I really struggle to see a line of thinking that makes sense coming from town!Epi. They aren't worried about wolf disruptives, their claim doesn't make a lot of sense, and their claimed target doesn't fit well IMO.

On the idea that scum!Epi is protecting scum!SVS with the JK claim: Ehh... maybe. GTH? Probably not. Don't see Epi's early push on SVS as teamed.

#911

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:10 pm Master Radishes hasn't voted (and I believe said that wouldn't happen).

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 4:15 pm [VOTE: SVS] aubergine

This is fine I guess. I have no strong opinion but others seem to.
That was the underwhelming Day 1 vote.

Hmmmm...underwhelming as in the reason MR stated, or the wagon itself?

#912

@Epignosis What's your read on MR right now?

#913

ISO Falcon time:

Falcon's ISO looks good. He's got those sharp takes that scum!Falcon has a hard time faking. In particular, I believe he believed Cat was strategically sitting on the sidelines, and honestly, I don't see scum!Falcon supporting a LHF Cat wagon over a juicy town!Guillo wagon D1. Today, Falcon is probably the most invested even though I don't see his name being pushed as a likely suspect, so I'mma further chalk that up to being good and actually having time now. Probably won't vote there today.

#914

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 6:13 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:40 pm I changed my vote to [VOTE: S~V~S] aubergine.

I have to have more faith in myself.

On the surface, I don't feel like S~V~S is looking for mafia. It's all self-defense.
100% self defense. I got so derailed by day one, by taking so much suspish over something so silly, that it OMGUSed me up. I think I'm a fairly polarized player, my bad game is so much more controlled, that it can be hard for me to see pushes for saying something that was kind of a thoughtless throwaway remark, which I almost never make when bad. So now I am fairly blinded by defensiveness towards those that suspected me for something so trivial.

This is my failing, no one elses. I apologize to the host and to the other players for being so absent. I've become so blinded by my own defensiveness that I'm useless to town.

Gonna stick with my gut re Radishes, they kept up with the "Hrm, what about SVS" pretty much the whole game. Of all the suspish I took, that felt the most insincere to me.

[VOTE: Radishes] aubergine

It feels like you've stopped hunting. Do you have something more specific beyond gut feels on MR?

Imma check your ISO

#915

[VOTE: No vote] aubergine

I need to get my head in the game.

I'll try this evening (hopefully work isn't like it was last night).

#916

[VOTE: svs] aubergine

#917

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 4:22 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 4:15 pm Oh and SVS pops in. Awkward.

Just promise me to seriously look into those who pushed sus at me, and who might have benefitted from me flipping civ.

It seems almost everyone has proposed me as a teammate for almost everyone. When I flip don’t clear anyone, ok?

This does not look like you feel MR's push is insincere, in fact it reads the opposite

#918

EoD is 5am or some ungodly hour like that for me, so I will be signing off soon.

I really think it has to be SVS. I'm not sure on the partner but one step at a time.

#919

ISO MR time (specifcally because he just said he's signing off, and not at all because I'm actually finally done for the day):

He approached D1 with a very detached attitude. At first it felt like comfortable jokiness, but then he made a rather long post that contained some reads, albiet a bit wishwashy, but then continued to seem to not care at all about the elim or the game. He votes SVS because it "feels fine" and because he has no "strong opinon", even though his earlier reads were not positive for SVS, so it did seem he had an opinion. D2 MR also pushes SVS, even though rather subtly. For example, they seemed to want to discount the idea that SVS could've been framed (I actually agree that it isn't common for wolves to make a kill with the express purpose of making sure someone specific would get elim'd, but honestly usually "they're trying to frame me!" is a more townie thought than not, and rebuffing something like that usually only comes from people pushing the person.

D3 though, MR is being pretty solvey. I don't agree on their Epi take, and they again seem to want to discount SVS in ways I find less than charitable, but some of their posts genuinely seem to care about the game (in stark constrast from their D1). My big worry though is that perhaps this is a "home stretch" wolfpush type of care rather than a "we're in a rough spot, gotta put in the work" townie kinda care.

I haven't gotten to SVS yet, but honestly... I almost kinda want to clear them based on not having a viable partner. Epi's early push, and MR's D1 push that would earn no buscred if scum!SVS, along with MR's sustained, but subtle push on SVS make me think neither is aligned with SVS, and while I haven't seen anything specifically unaligning Falcon/SVS, based on just Falcon/Epi/MR, I'd guess Falcon is town with more confidence than the other two. I'm still going to ISO SVS, but right now if I had to guess a team, it'd be Epi/MR.

#920

A tornado came close to my house, so I was hunkered down in my bathroom for a while. It is past now, so I am safe. Slowed down my SVS ISO, but I'll finish it now.

#921

SVS definitely has a rocky start. After getting some early sus, she feels very defensive re:Epi, and LP both pushing her. However, she then kind of folds over and accepts an elim on her over town!Guillo. Rolling over when being the only viable CW to a PR is generally wolfy, but the fact that SVS actually stuck to it, and even when Guillo's wagon was bigger than hers, she kept offering herself up, and instead of self-pressing on Guillo, she voted first Epi and then Cat. Maybe wolf!SVS just didn't expect to survive D1, and didn't want to spew Guillo, but ehh... idk, much easier play is to just claim self-pres and vote Guillo there.

SVS pretty severely drops of D2 and D3 in terms of activity. If this was after a D1 scum flip, I'd say this is a wrap, but I don't see any reason for scum!SVS to be low WIM with how the game has gone, so I'mma say that's probably NAI. I do think the "I'm being framed" more often comes from town than scum as well.

#922

I am finally off work. Jesus is college football a pain in the ass.

#923

I'm going to read through everybody for my own satisfaction, and I'll save S~V~S for last since I already have a bias against her in this one.

#924

I've lied again.

I've done all I'm going to do tonight. I'm beat.

I think S~V~S is mafia. Michelle did too.

And if I'm right, I think I have a tell on mafia S~V~S.

[VOTE: S~V~S] aubergine

#925

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:37 am @Epignosis What's your read on MR right now?

It went bad, worse, then fine, then okay, and now whatever.

#926

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 8:22 pm A tornado came close to my house, so I was hunkered down in my bathroom for a while. It is past now, so I am safe. Slowed down my SVS ISO, but I'll finish it now.

Shit's pretty calm here for now. Hope you're all right.

#927

If S~V~S is mafia, my first instinct is that Seanzie is the partner.

#928

No, I misread something.

#929

However, one point in my head still stands out: Of all the people Seanzie talked about today, S~V~S didn't receive a clear opinion.

#930

[VOTE: MR] aubergine

#931

Seanzie, who is the mafia team?

#932

I am alarmed that Seanzie is comfortable voting MR knowing this is the endgame scenario.

#933

Oh well.

Good game falcon and Seanzie.

#934

@S~V~S
@Master Radishes

Hail Mary here. ^

#935

Seanzie

#936

The devil was that.

[VOTE: Seanzie] aubergine

#937

[VOTE: mr] aubergine

#938

Nice move there falcon. Good game.

#939

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:58 pm Nice move there falcon. Good game.

You got there, well played

#940

Day 3 has ended. Master Radishes was eliminated. He was:

Spoiler: show

Master Radishes was the Hittite empire, a classical power centered in Anatolia/Asia Minor (modern day Turkey) with its capital at the ancient site of Hattusha, to the east of modern Ankara. Their power in this region was largely unchecked for centuries leading up to the period of the Late Bronze Age Collapse. At their peak they were credible rivals of every other power in the vicinity to include the Assyrians, Egyptians, and late-stage Babylonians. For this reason, it is somewhat curious that they suffered perhaps the most total collapse of any civilization that fell in this cataclysmic century. The bizarre stories of naval invaders (i.e., the "Sea Peoples") that have popped up to describe the collapses of their neighbors persist with the Hittites. However, the story of their demise might need a broader account, and some evidence suggests they were victims of an extraordinarily severe and prolonged drought. Climate change was ever a critical threat to the ancient world (perhaps we can learn from their destruction). The source of this drought is a topic of much debate, but some attribute it to Seanzie. Yes, they attribute the fall of the Hittite empire (and the climate catastrophes of the LBAC in general) to Seanzie. More on this shortly.

Spoiler: show

#941

Mafia chat

Spec chat

#942

Sorry I got drunk on my birthday.

#943

But also...

...not sorry.

#944

Phew! Was sweating a bit at the end there, good job getting the solve @Epignosis.

Good game everyone!

#945

The mafia team just did a marvelous job letting the civilians eat each other alive. Truly an amazing sight. Well done Seanzie and falcon.

#946

Good game. Yeah it was a tough one to work out.

#947

Thanks for the host @JaggedJimmyJay , thanks @Seanzie, always a pleasure to scum with you.

#948

Ah damn, I was worried about that. I was getting to Seanzie in my head, but Falcon did enough this round to make me hesitate and I couldn't find a reason for it not to be SVS.

GG wolves.

#949

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 10:32 pm I've lied again.

I've done all I'm going to do tonight. I'm beat.

I think S~V~S is mafia. Michelle did too.

And if I'm right, I think I have a tell on mafia S~V~S.

[VOTE: S~V~S] aubergine

Free self meta tip, since you’re a word guy; bad SVS would *never* use a semi confrontational word against a somewhat touchy person like Michelle on Day One. Poking people for no reason on Day Ine isn’t a winning move.

Again I’m sorry everyone. I thought I was so obviously not bad I got derailed into an OMGUS spiral. I learned a lesson here.

Good game, Sean and Falcon!

#950

Reading back, I would have never come to Falcon, and maybe not Sean either. I was 100% townreading Falcon.