Game of Champions- Merged Thread [GAME OVER- SERIAL KILLER WINS]

[leetic]

Sucks that my phone has to die in F3. At least the power's still on, I guess. Catching up now

[WindwardAway]

I think in both of those games anyway I was the last wolf alive (on my team) so you should still have something to compare to

[Delta]

is today the day I read a FOL game ;_;

[WindwardAway]

is today the day I read a FOL game ;_;

My ISO is 1359 posts there sorry about that

[Delta]

is today the day I read a FOL game ;_;

My ISO is 1359 posts there sorry about that

[WindwardAway]

Oh actually I think I had another more recent mafia game that wasn't paywalled
But I subbed in on the very last day, into a wolf slot that kinda blew itself up already so tbh I didn't have much to say there

[leetic]

I could see whatever mafia team killed Nutella to have a member in the East than the other team to have someone in the West.

This would mean WWA/Wilgy still have mafia potential.

Epi doesn’t make sense as mafia for either team right now given that he’s encouraging we look at both areas.

I’ve got that end of game certainty now that the final two mafia are Wilgy and Leetic. I’ve got very little solid reasoning to back this up, but it just seems like the most logic thing, having said that I will be reading up on those two before eod and hopefully everyone else also, but it just doesn’t seem viable that both mafia are West with only 2 West players left

[VOTE: Leetic] aubergine

Or I guess it could be delta, but they read very genuine as a lost civ, Epi seems to have been hunting both team evenly, and I guess that leaves WWA.

Now the big reason to suspect Leetic is they seem to have really slowed down and take a back seat. I also find the way they’re pushing Nutella read post death to be a bit scummy.

I’m open to hearing other thoughts, buuuuut given I literally don’t have a town core anymore I prob won’t listen

I've been reading through D7 again and Sig's reads caught my attention again
I said yesterday that I didn't see Wilgy making the Sig kill except maybe for one post above these quotes, where Sig said Wilgy was pretty towny but also probably was a wolf anyway.
But looking at these reads again, they also point to the possibility that leetic could've killed Sig. I'm certain Delta couldn't have killed Sig because of their missed votes, and I think Sig's leetic take is notable, given that leetic and Wilgy had been pushing each other all day. Of course this still could've been a Wilgy kill, but either way I think leetic/Wilgy being wolf vs wolf in the thread is a pretty striking take. I said that I thought it *could* be two wolves consolidating on the Davos wagon just before eod, and it wasn't Epi, and it also wasn't me.

What I said in my observation that day, when Wilgy and leetic were going back and forth, was that leetic seemed to be focused on pushing whoever was about to perform the next night kill, while Wilgy was pushing whoever he thought was wolfiest. I still believe Wilgy was genuinely wolfhunting at that point in time, because I thought at least some of his case against leetic made sense, but I shelved it because I believed Wilgy was simply more likely to flip wolf, and Davos was going to be a key flip (and I was right about that). I believe that leetic pushing on the basis of "who performed the kill on which night" is a pretty convenient way for a wolf to hunt a wolf on the opposing team, because they can genuinely focus on it while knowing already which kills were theirs.

I was Wilgy's secondary push that day. Wilgy said I probably wouldn't flip town, but didn't put any casework into pushing me until the next day when it was very blatantly OMGUS. Feel free to go through his case on me from yesterday and tell me whether you believe any of it was valid, btw. The tone of it was nothing like how he cased leetic the day before. And when I look at leetic's response to being pushed by Wilgy, I see that they drop their push on me to start pushing Wilgy back. Suddenly their case on me takes a backseat to Wilgy, and notably I'm not really pushing leetic at all there. I fence-sit for a while, say that I think leetic is wolfier but Wilgy is more likely to flip wolf, and that I think we need the Davos flip first. What I think now is that Sig saw how leetic shifted gears when being pushed, and correctly determined that it was the last two wolves pushing each other.

There are a couple of holes in this case. Number one, Epi died tonight, and he couldn't have been killed by the landlords. If I'm the arbiter and kills are alternating I could not have killed sig.

[WindwardAway]

Oh actually I think I had another more recent mafia game that wasn't paywalled
But I subbed in on the very last day, into a wolf slot that kinda blew itself up already so tbh I didn't have much to say there

https://fosmafia.com/threads/mafia-9-se ... ration.36/

You can try to read it anyway lol
My ISO is very short and full of poop tho so it's really not the greatest demonstration of my wolfrange

[WindwardAway]

I could see whatever mafia team killed Nutella to have a member in the East than the other team to have someone in the West.

This would mean WWA/Wilgy still have mafia potential.

Epi doesn’t make sense as mafia for either team right now given that he’s encouraging we look at both areas.

I’ve got that end of game certainty now that the final two mafia are Wilgy and Leetic. I’ve got very little solid reasoning to back this up, but it just seems like the most logic thing, having said that I will be reading up on those two before eod and hopefully everyone else also, but it just doesn’t seem viable that both mafia are West with only 2 West players left

[VOTE: Leetic] aubergine

Or I guess it could be delta, but they read very genuine as a lost civ, Epi seems to have been hunting both team evenly, and I guess that leaves WWA.

Now the big reason to suspect Leetic is they seem to have really slowed down and take a back seat. I also find the way they’re pushing Nutella read post death to be a bit scummy.

I’m open to hearing other thoughts, buuuuut given I literally don’t have a town core anymore I prob won’t listen

I've been reading through D7 again and Sig's reads caught my attention again
I said yesterday that I didn't see Wilgy making the Sig kill except maybe for one post above these quotes, where Sig said Wilgy was pretty towny but also probably was a wolf anyway.
But looking at these reads again, they also point to the possibility that leetic could've killed Sig. I'm certain Delta couldn't have killed Sig because of their missed votes, and I think Sig's leetic take is notable, given that leetic and Wilgy had been pushing each other all day. Of course this still could've been a Wilgy kill, but either way I think leetic/Wilgy being wolf vs wolf in the thread is a pretty striking take. I said that I thought it *could* be two wolves consolidating on the Davos wagon just before eod, and it wasn't Epi, and it also wasn't me.

What I said in my observation that day, when Wilgy and leetic were going back and forth, was that leetic seemed to be focused on pushing whoever was about to perform the next night kill, while Wilgy was pushing whoever he thought was wolfiest. I still believe Wilgy was genuinely wolfhunting at that point in time, because I thought at least some of his case against leetic made sense, but I shelved it because I believed Wilgy was simply more likely to flip wolf, and Davos was going to be a key flip (and I was right about that). I believe that leetic pushing on the basis of "who performed the kill on which night" is a pretty convenient way for a wolf to hunt a wolf on the opposing team, because they can genuinely focus on it while knowing already which kills were theirs.

I was Wilgy's secondary push that day. Wilgy said I probably wouldn't flip town, but didn't put any casework into pushing me until the next day when it was very blatantly OMGUS. Feel free to go through his case on me from yesterday and tell me whether you believe any of it was valid, btw. The tone of it was nothing like how he cased leetic the day before. And when I look at leetic's response to being pushed by Wilgy, I see that they drop their push on me to start pushing Wilgy back. Suddenly their case on me takes a backseat to Wilgy, and notably I'm not really pushing leetic at all there. I fence-sit for a while, say that I think leetic is wolfier but Wilgy is more likely to flip wolf, and that I think we need the Davos flip first. What I think now is that Sig saw how leetic shifted gears when being pushed, and correctly determined that it was the last two wolves pushing each other.

There are a couple of holes in this case. Number one, Epi died tonight, and he couldn't have been killed by the landlords. If I'm the arbiter and kills are alternating I could not have killed sig.

Wait a second
If kills are still alternating despite the landlords being dead, then if we no-lunch today, you're claiming that nobody would die tonight as a result.
That seems super weird because then this is MyLo and not LyLo.

[leetic]

I feel like I've asked before so sorry if I have

do you have a wolf game I could skim? could be here or offsite

Here's my most recent one: https://wintreath.com/forums/index.php?topic=8157.0

[Delta]

tyty to both, will probably skim in the morning and just focus on rereading shit tn

partially because I need to work out how to actually ISO a FoL game over just scrolling but :,) minor details

[leetic]

I could see whatever mafia team killed Nutella to have a member in the East than the other team to have someone in the West.

This would mean WWA/Wilgy still have mafia potential.

Epi doesn’t make sense as mafia for either team right now given that he’s encouraging we look at both areas.

I’ve got that end of game certainty now that the final two mafia are Wilgy and Leetic. I’ve got very little solid reasoning to back this up, but it just seems like the most logic thing, having said that I will be reading up on those two before eod and hopefully everyone else also, but it just doesn’t seem viable that both mafia are West with only 2 West players left

[VOTE: Leetic] aubergine

Or I guess it could be delta, but they read very genuine as a lost civ, Epi seems to have been hunting both team evenly, and I guess that leaves WWA.

Now the big reason to suspect Leetic is they seem to have really slowed down and take a back seat. I also find the way they’re pushing Nutella read post death to be a bit scummy.

I’m open to hearing other thoughts, buuuuut given I literally don’t have a town core anymore I prob won’t listen

I've been reading through D7 again and Sig's reads caught my attention again
I said yesterday that I didn't see Wilgy making the Sig kill except maybe for one post above these quotes, where Sig said Wilgy was pretty towny but also probably was a wolf anyway.
But looking at these reads again, they also point to the possibility that leetic could've killed Sig. I'm certain Delta couldn't have killed Sig because of their missed votes, and I think Sig's leetic take is notable, given that leetic and Wilgy had been pushing each other all day. Of course this still could've been a Wilgy kill, but either way I think leetic/Wilgy being wolf vs wolf in the thread is a pretty striking take. I said that I thought it *could* be two wolves consolidating on the Davos wagon just before eod, and it wasn't Epi, and it also wasn't me.

What I said in my observation that day, when Wilgy and leetic were going back and forth, was that leetic seemed to be focused on pushing whoever was about to perform the next night kill, while Wilgy was pushing whoever he thought was wolfiest. I still believe Wilgy was genuinely wolfhunting at that point in time, because I thought at least some of his case against leetic made sense, but I shelved it because I believed Wilgy was simply more likely to flip wolf, and Davos was going to be a key flip (and I was right about that). I believe that leetic pushing on the basis of "who performed the kill on which night" is a pretty convenient way for a wolf to hunt a wolf on the opposing team, because they can genuinely focus on it while knowing already which kills were theirs.

I was Wilgy's secondary push that day. Wilgy said I probably wouldn't flip town, but didn't put any casework into pushing me until the next day when it was very blatantly OMGUS. Feel free to go through his case on me from yesterday and tell me whether you believe any of it was valid, btw. The tone of it was nothing like how he cased leetic the day before. And when I look at leetic's response to being pushed by Wilgy, I see that they drop their push on me to start pushing Wilgy back. Suddenly their case on me takes a backseat to Wilgy, and notably I'm not really pushing leetic at all there. I fence-sit for a while, say that I think leetic is wolfier but Wilgy is more likely to flip wolf, and that I think we need the Davos flip first. What I think now is that Sig saw how leetic shifted gears when being pushed, and correctly determined that it was the last two wolves pushing each other.

There are a couple of holes in this case. Number one, Epi died tonight, and he couldn't have been killed by the landlords. If I'm the arbiter and kills are alternating I could not have killed sig.

Wait a second
If kills are still alternating despite the landlords being dead, then if we no-lunch today, you're claiming that nobody would die tonight as a result.
That seems super weird because then this is MyLo and not LyLo.

Hm, an interesting possibility. Still not one I'd bet the game on since we know little about the game mechanically, and I don't think there's a no lynch option anyway. The thing we have to consider about any night kill is that we don't know about any vigs/redirectors/etc.

[leetic]

The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.

[Delta]

The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.

;_; I do apologise, been a series of unfortunate events & other things that are my fault

this is the first f3 ive been part of and being handed hammer - its not really hammer but theres the cross there so it does feel like it comes down to me - is terrifying so I want to be thorough, both from a mech standpoint and a reads one

[leetic]

Doing a quick skim of yesterday and I just feel no urgency from Delta to solve
I mean yeah it could be easily explained by Wilgy being pretty much guaranteed to flip by popular vote
Which is why I said yesterday it felt like Delta was just sitting back and letting things happen. But I don't know if that's a wolfy approach. I guess Wilgy was right and we were in LyLo yesterday too meaning if we'd landed on town, town would already have lost and we would've been picking which wolf we wanted to win, lol

Yesterday wasn't LyLo in the truest sense. The game could have still went on if we mislynched as long as a wolf went down N8.

[WindwardAway]

I could see whatever mafia team killed Nutella to have a member in the East than the other team to have someone in the West.

This would mean WWA/Wilgy still have mafia potential.

Epi doesn’t make sense as mafia for either team right now given that he’s encouraging we look at both areas.

I’ve got that end of game certainty now that the final two mafia are Wilgy and Leetic. I’ve got very little solid reasoning to back this up, but it just seems like the most logic thing, having said that I will be reading up on those two before eod and hopefully everyone else also, but it just doesn’t seem viable that both mafia are West with only 2 West players left

[VOTE: Leetic] aubergine

Or I guess it could be delta, but they read very genuine as a lost civ, Epi seems to have been hunting both team evenly, and I guess that leaves WWA.

Now the big reason to suspect Leetic is they seem to have really slowed down and take a back seat. I also find the way they’re pushing Nutella read post death to be a bit scummy.

I’m open to hearing other thoughts, buuuuut given I literally don’t have a town core anymore I prob won’t listen

I've been reading through D7 again and Sig's reads caught my attention again
I said yesterday that I didn't see Wilgy making the Sig kill except maybe for one post above these quotes, where Sig said Wilgy was pretty towny but also probably was a wolf anyway.
But looking at these reads again, they also point to the possibility that leetic could've killed Sig. I'm certain Delta couldn't have killed Sig because of their missed votes, and I think Sig's leetic take is notable, given that leetic and Wilgy had been pushing each other all day. Of course this still could've been a Wilgy kill, but either way I think leetic/Wilgy being wolf vs wolf in the thread is a pretty striking take. I said that I thought it *could* be two wolves consolidating on the Davos wagon just before eod, and it wasn't Epi, and it also wasn't me.

What I said in my observation that day, when Wilgy and leetic were going back and forth, was that leetic seemed to be focused on pushing whoever was about to perform the next night kill, while Wilgy was pushing whoever he thought was wolfiest. I still believe Wilgy was genuinely wolfhunting at that point in time, because I thought at least some of his case against leetic made sense, but I shelved it because I believed Wilgy was simply more likely to flip wolf, and Davos was going to be a key flip (and I was right about that). I believe that leetic pushing on the basis of "who performed the kill on which night" is a pretty convenient way for a wolf to hunt a wolf on the opposing team, because they can genuinely focus on it while knowing already which kills were theirs.

I was Wilgy's secondary push that day. Wilgy said I probably wouldn't flip town, but didn't put any casework into pushing me until the next day when it was very blatantly OMGUS. Feel free to go through his case on me from yesterday and tell me whether you believe any of it was valid, btw. The tone of it was nothing like how he cased leetic the day before. And when I look at leetic's response to being pushed by Wilgy, I see that they drop their push on me to start pushing Wilgy back. Suddenly their case on me takes a backseat to Wilgy, and notably I'm not really pushing leetic at all there. I fence-sit for a while, say that I think leetic is wolfier but Wilgy is more likely to flip wolf, and that I think we need the Davos flip first. What I think now is that Sig saw how leetic shifted gears when being pushed, and correctly determined that it was the last two wolves pushing each other.

There are a couple of holes in this case. Number one, Epi died tonight, and he couldn't have been killed by the landlords. If I'm the arbiter and kills are alternating I could not have killed sig.

Wait a second
If kills are still alternating despite the landlords being dead, then if we no-lunch today, you're claiming that nobody would die tonight as a result.
That seems super weird because then this is MyLo and not LyLo.

Hm, an interesting possibility. Still not one I'd bet the game on since we know little about the game mechanically, and I don't think there's a no lynch option anyway. The thing we have to consider about any night kill is that we don't know about any vigs/redirectors/etc.

I would definitely not bet the game on there being no NK, it's way too risky
But that's why I don't really believe that the arbiters could not kill both sig and Epi. It's possible that whichever team survives to endgame gets a kill anyway, so it might not properly alternate anymore.

[leetic]

The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.

;_; I do apologise, been a series of unfortunate events & other things that are my fault

this is the first f3 ive been part of and being handed hammer - its not really hammer but theres the cross there so it does feel like it comes down to me - is terrifying so I want to be thorough, both from a mech standpoint and a reads one

If EoD was in two minutes, who would you vote?

[Delta]

The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.

;_; I do apologise, been a series of unfortunate events & other things that are my fault

this is the first f3 ive been part of and being handed hammer - its not really hammer but theres the cross there so it does feel like it comes down to me - is terrifying so I want to be thorough, both from a mech standpoint and a reads one

If EoD was in two minutes, who would you vote?

leaning wind on the basis of the idea of lemon being alone never really being a topic until now, when I feel like it probably shouldve been if true. plus the whole 1:3 split for arbiters feels punishing, moreso than maybe what it should be considering landlords were the one with an additional head in the game, if you'd count davos as that.

[WindwardAway]

The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.

But there's a disparity no matter how you frame it. Landlords already had one more in one thread. Mech discussion has been closed, and I believe the arbiters had some form of mech compensation since they didn't have a puppet.

[Delta]

the issue is if I disregard a mech standpoint:

I came into this thread townleaning WWA & I pushed you D1 in our thread

so while I feel like speculation around mech leads me to WWA, reads wise I feel like I should lean you?

which is why I want to be thorough with this, try build a pros/cons kind of thing for both

[WindwardAway]

The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.

;_; I do apologise, been a series of unfortunate events & other things that are my fault

this is the first f3 ive been part of and being handed hammer - its not really hammer but theres the cross there so it does feel like it comes down to me - is terrifying so I want to be thorough, both from a mech standpoint and a reads one

If EoD was in two minutes, who would you vote?

leaning wind on the basis of the idea of lemon being alone never really being a topic until now, when I feel like it probably shouldve been if true. plus the whole 1:3 split for arbiters feels punishing, moreso than maybe what it should be considering landlords were the one with an additional head in the game, if you'd count davos as that.

Yeah but landlords being at an advantage in one thread and disadvantage in the other thread is reasonable imo. I'm not viewing the 1:3 split as a disadvantage for arbiters because I think it's likely there was something to compensate for it. Landlords having the advantage in my thread and equal footing in yours isn't evenly balanced, either.

[leetic]

The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.

But there's a disparity no matter how you frame it. Landlords already had one more in one thread. Mech discussion has been closed, and I believe the arbiters had some form of mech compensation since they didn't have a puppet.

There's still quite a distinction between one team having one more and one team having two more. Further, if there was only one arbiter in the thread there was a chance that the entire team could have missed everything that happened D2 in that thread, and that's another consideration. Plus, it leads to a level of bastardry – would they really have a team wolf with no partners? It would make any partner analyses, which many people use here, completely useless.

[WindwardAway]

I'm gonna try to leave the work event before eod tomorrow btw
I mean I doubt it'll go THAT late anyway, but I will probably be drunk which means I'll be able to real-time but probably not want to sift through the thread looking for stuff
So I'm trying to finish that now before I go to sleep

[leetic]

the issue is if I disregard a mech standpoint:

I came into this thread townleaning WWA & I pushed you D1 in our thread

so while I feel like speculation around mech leads me to WWA, reads wise I feel like I should lean you?

which is why I want to be thorough with this, try build a pros/cons kind of thing for both

Why are reads from D1 still relevant to the gamestate? I feel a lot has happened since then

[Delta]

the issue is if I disregard a mech standpoint:

I came into this thread townleaning WWA & I pushed you D1 in our thread

so while I feel like speculation around mech leads me to WWA, reads wise I feel like I should lean you?

which is why I want to be thorough with this, try build a pros/cons kind of thing for both

Why are reads from D1 still relevant to the gamestate? I feel a lot has happened since then

just wanted to represent that my gut pings on you were opposites to mech related reads, if anything

[Delta]

it doesnt take into account everything, just to highlight a disparity

can both of you run through the flipped arbiters' posts here and try case the other off of them? I'll do so myself as well but I do want to focus on partner interactions since this was a team that came into the thread with every wolf alive, so there is more there

[WindwardAway]

The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.

But there's a disparity no matter how you frame it. Landlords already had one more in one thread. Mech discussion has been closed, and I believe the arbiters had some form of mech compensation since they didn't have a puppet.

There's still quite a distinction between one team having one more and one team having two more. Further, if there was only one arbiter in the thread there was a chance that the entire team could have missed everything that happened D2 in that thread, and that's another consideration. Plus, it leads to a level of bastardry – would they really have a team wolf with no partners? It would make any partner analyses, which many people use here, completely useless.

Well, that's the whole thing about Lemon just not really interacting with people in the East thread. I do have a feeling that the thread merge was triggered by something and not predetermined to be D3, and I believe the trigger might have been death count. So I do believe that, if Lemon had died in East thread, the threads would've merged the day after. Of course, that's also setup spec, but I'm sure I saw the hint in one of the host posts. So I do think there was a way around that issue for the arbiters.

[WindwardAway]

it doesnt take into account everything, just to highlight a disparity

can both of you run through the flipped arbiters' posts here and try case the other off of them? I'll do so myself as well but I do want to focus on partner interactions since this was a team that came into the thread with every wolf alive, so there is more there

Yes sure
I believe leetic already cased me off the arbiter interactions today btw

[Delta]

it doesnt take into account everything, just to highlight a disparity

can both of you run through the flipped arbiters' posts here and try case the other off of them? I'll do so myself as well but I do want to focus on partner interactions since this was a team that came into the thread with every wolf alive, so there is more there

Yes sure
I believe leetic already cased me off the arbiter interactions today btw

tyty & I'll go back for those now

[WindwardAway]

Falcon

Was porscha nked or voted out?

from the order i
guess spacedaisy was the yeet
porscha and sean night?

Spacedaisy was modkilled or day vigged, Porscha was the lynch

oh huh alright then
was there counter to porscha
anyone look bad

Sig was CW to Porscha. I'll have to reread everything though. I didn't expect the Seanzie NK, so might have to look over his reads.

Who did you think would be NK'd?

This is falcon's only interaction with leetic

[Delta]

Falcon

Was porscha nked or voted out?

from the order i
guess spacedaisy was the yeet
porscha and sean night?

Spacedaisy was modkilled or day vigged, Porscha was the lynch

oh huh alright then
was there counter to porscha
anyone look bad

Sig was CW to Porscha. I'll have to reread everything though. I didn't expect the Seanzie NK, so might have to look over his reads.

Who did you think would be NK'd?

This is falcon's only interaction with leetic

I can grab our side of the thread myself anyway, wouldnt worry too much about lacking interactions

[leetic]

Falcon

Was porscha nked or voted out?

from the order i
guess spacedaisy was the yeet
porscha and sean night?

Spacedaisy was modkilled or day vigged, Porscha was the lynch

oh huh alright then
was there counter to porscha
anyone look bad

Sig was CW to Porscha. I'll have to reread everything though. I didn't expect the Seanzie NK, so might have to look over his reads.

Who did you think would be NK'd?

This is falcon's only interaction with leetic

Mind also doing this with Delta, to avoid confirmation bias?

[Delta]

Falcon

from the order i
guess spacedaisy was the yeet
porscha and sean night?

Spacedaisy was modkilled or day vigged, Porscha was the lynch

oh huh alright then
was there counter to porscha
anyone look bad

Sig was CW to Porscha. I'll have to reread everything though. I didn't expect the Seanzie NK, so might have to look over his reads.

Who did you think would be NK'd?

This is falcon's only interaction with leetic

Mind also doing this with Delta, to avoid confirmation bias?

OH yeah if you could both do that that'd be great, would like to be able to dissect your stances on me too if that makes sense

[Delta]

I feel like I'm setting out a lot of work but not presenting much myself :,) the bulk of it will come tomorrow anyway due to the timing of it & I'll go from there

[leetic]

Remember, while I think that WWA is the most likely wolf I'm still willing to hear a case on Delta. Town should be focused on voting correctly here, not just on surviving a crossvote.

[leetic]

Yeah, WWA was quite quick to take Delta's offer of casing me without slowing down to also consider Delta. It looks like a wolf that wants to take the most convenient path to survival, so that's another point against them.

[Delta]

Probably not brilliant timing but gonna head off for the night & come back with fresh eyes

anything case related please ping me with just so it's easier for me to get to in the morning \o/

[WindwardAway]

falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

Epignosis - posts
sig - posts

leetic - posts
nutella - posts
WindwardAway - posts

( )

TonyStarkPrime - posts

DarlingMonroe - posts
Delta - posts
Dyslexicon - posts
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - posts
Lemonfairy - posts
Cape90 - posts

DrWilgy - posts
Long Con - posts

Master Radishes - posts
Sloonei - posts

This emoji post is worth commenting on, it's what looks to be a readlist. And leetic and I are tiered at the same level, while Rico has Delta in shrugzone.

[WindwardAway]

Fuck where did the rest of the post go

[WindwardAway]

Noooooooo I have to write it again???
oh man, I ISO'd Rico for all leetic and Delta interactions and apparently deleted all of it except that last part, how embarrassing
Lemme redo it sorry

[WindwardAway]

Yeah, WWA was quite quick to take Delta's offer of casing me without slowing down to also consider Delta. It looks like a wolf that wants to take the most convenient path to survival, so that's another point against them.

That's incorrect, I didn't comment on the falcon post because falcon had *no* interactions at all with Delta. Rico on the other hand mentioned Delta a couple of times, mainly in context of their wagon in the West. I'm trying to rewrite and requote what I had, but I'm on my phone so sorry for the slowness.

[WindwardAway]

Off the top of my head, though, I saw that Rico claimed he forgot that Delta existed for a day, so that was noteworthy in the sense that I don't think teammates usually just forget about each other lol

[WindwardAway]

Anyway, dumping the first batch.

Wagoners*

* given the VC at the time of submitting this
NB: not sure the poll reflects the vote chronology as well, but I'll just roll with the names as they appear

falcon

Monroe
-- seems to have parked on falcon just now, despite all their posts being bark back at Epignosis. I suppose it counts as self-pres?
-- just to add to their read, minus point for their recent post aimed at Epignosis, tone still aggro defensive and not the most respectable wording towards Epignosis, either

sig
pyxxy connection: labelled it as unlikely
much of what I've noted down from sig's activity is in fact case-making on falcon, arguments being that falcon is within wolf range and that the Western night kills could show pattern of clean-up in his aid. also admits mindmeld with leetic on the night kills angle. seems fine

Master Radishes
-- for someone from East, therefore info-less on falcon, vote drop was sudden, without hint of inquiry or reading into others' takes and a bit of "nuh-uh" retort to falcon calling it opportunistic (even prodding him to vote back). not ideal elements. later more elaborate, dismissing falcon's "exasperation" as outweighed by poor tone, something I do meld with.
-- had a good impression of him otherwise - active in developing reads and opinionated on enough players and events - but this on its own is a mixed bag

Windward
-- noted her more of a Lemon wagoner for much of D3; falcon switch comes down to disliking falcon's "opportunism" rebuttal at Radishes, it seems. bit cheeky to word it as "happy to join the opportunistic train". later camps reactive attitude, in principle, towards mafia lean. again, had more interest in others, but I can see how the view on falcon might have soured in time and treat the gameplay as wolf-likely
-- activity-wise, I'd rate Windward towny. ample material, not gonna develop full read at this time.

Long Con
pyxxy connection: labelled him sussworthy
-- it is accurate that LC has suss on falcon throughout West period
-- it is also accurate that his waffle on falcon came from trusting Abigail's tone/meta read, true both during West time and during D3 here
-- as far as coming back on falcon wagon, late on seems to make a read - not agreeing with his towning claim, finding his counter-suspicions omgusey. think it's adequate
-- didn't note down any pings from LC today tbh, though overall I find him a bit puzzling. his D3 is probably the better-looking phase of his activity thus far, engaged and opinionated more on the topics, but at times I also he's tagteaming others (much "starting to see this" responses), quite the buddy dynamic with Epignosis, lighthearted banter and focused replies in equal measures. ech, probably wouldn't focus on deciphering this for now

leetic
pyxxy connection: labeled him unlikely
-- pretty much wagons falcon for the nightkill angle; dismisses falcon's defense on that as wifom; don't recall him tackling any other point about falcon
-- really conflicted about leetic overall: was my topwolf pick and vote D1, the aggro-tone was prevalent; Abigail (in West) and Dizzy (in here) mentioned that this is normal leetic; then D2 he shifts into a Pyxxy Scientist (ISO'ing interactions), drop most of the prod and poke tone, a solving attitude I shared and in turned like;
-- now? I'm seeing way less of D2. announced ISOs from West D2, did not deliver; had to defend a bit re: gifting a player who flipped wolf, don't know if that's a topic of suss. informed the merged group of his Pyxxy Science findings, that's fair. couple more reads (Nanook for instance), no definitive wording. still, really slowed down performance. puzzling.

DrWilgy
-- seems to base and bank his falcon vote on lack of townspewing alone. I'd label this a tad narrowing
-- no developed read on his activity atm. word that came to mind, upon quick scroll, was "scrambled". perhaps within expectations.

Ok so here's the first thing. Rico hedged a LOT on leetic here, but in fairness, I don't know what happened in the West Facility so I'm missing a bit of context from earlier. His read on me is here too, if either of you want to look at it. He wrote no such readlist including Delta, but he wrote an earlier one before this including Lemon and falcon so I'm gonna compare it below.

Spoiler: show

So I'll work my way from the wagons to others, within my capability.

Wagons

Overall, I'd favor a falcon lynch over a Lemon or Monroe one. Grouping bias is a factor, cuz I've played and judged falcon down in West, whereas I know less on why the other two are wolfread or didn't catch all the details from others' cases.

Between Lemon and Monroe, I'd place Monroe within question marks, both in regards to why they've become a D3 wagon and what they've done in response.

So, falcon > Monroe > Lemon

falcon

West - pyxxy connection: none that could have been established, because they interacted with / mentioned each other a total of zero times
West D1-D2 judgement: ended D2 with a low opinion on him and down on my would-vote list; excluding pyxxy connections I considered (Porscha, Delta), he was the lowest ranked de facto. West gameplay resembled current gameplay: brief intervals of engagement, much of which was spent prodding others (with a degree of randomness, never focused) or reactive-toned defending when voted/wagoned
D3 judgement:
-- pretty much the same, tone and grasp of play have not improved.
-- noted him hitting back in rebuttal form at most of his wagoners (Sloonei's characterisations, calling MRadishes opportunistic, bark back at nutella), plus placing three others (leetic, sig, Abigail) within wolf pairings with no reasoning. so pretty much a kind of "you're all bad" howl.
-- parked defense into two main ideas: that the Western nightkills are a frame and that he is towning like mad and we fail to see it. Former boils down to wifom, as leetic also said; latter is not something I can agree with, based on what I've judged. I've read or remember no strong meta read from others on this gameplay, as it stands, being town!falcon indicative
-- meanwhile, withheld to offer townreads (apart from not wanting to vote LC and Epignosis).
-- of his votes, Abigail and Monroe were/are without discernible cause. Monroe isn't even the counterwagon to self-pres on, at the moment

Monroe
D3 judgement: only 3 posts, of which their essence is an aggro response and vote on Epignosis (for their vote / case on them); other reads (Delta ping, wouldn't wagon Lemon) all vague. It doesn't look great, of course, to drop and omgus upon the very first interaction with a player from the other group. But also not the deepest material to make a solid case out of. Hence the question mark status.

Lemon
D3 judgement: I'd structure 3 phases, thus far, of activity.
-- first phase (posts 1-3) in which she mentioned postponing activity and also a statement on the merger being a sensible disorienting moment. I think some wagoned her starting for as little as this and, without proper context if this would classify as a pattern from wolf!lemon (that I can remember), I felt it was undeserved.
-- second phase (pre legacy post), with a first wave of rebuttals (at nutella and Windward). something about wanting to sit more on it. at worst, could display nerviness in face of pressure.
-- third phase (the legacy post): quite a shift from small bites to extensive reads. rebuttal-wise, argues more than the cases on her are not solid or convincing, then also tiers the wagoners based on individual performance. if this alone (or more of this throughout D3), without suss pressure, would have been Lemon's activity, I'd probably read it well. given suss and wagon pressure, I am missing meta info on whether Lemon would as to go steroids, from feeble to opinionated, as wolf. also, a bit funny to have labeled it as "legacy", as if the lynch is a done deal.

tldr: falcon suss (with no prevailing meta info that he towns this way), Monroe who knows (startled by bad form, but tis all so far), lemon no real ping on her elaborate reply

Distanced/bussed falcon and hedged on Lemon. Note that it was probably easier for Rico to slip out of reading Lemon because they were split for two days. He did the same to DM, who was town in the other thread.

Epignosis wrt Delta pauses me a lot toDay.

He was chief detective on case-making Delta D2 wrt pyxxy interactions (lifelining him intermittently and starting what proved pyxxy's counterwagon chance). The thing about too many townreads was also a point.

Then the Delta wagon fizzled through.

And now Epignosis comes into the merge with just that one point about the townreads.

Rico has this side mentioning of Delta by way of focusing on Epi's treatment of them, and without directly giving a read on Delta here. It's like Rico is gearing to push Epi on the basis of not following through on Delta, which I kind of think could go either way on Delta. The next mention of Delta is more direct, though.

I'm le tired.

I didn't even process Delta toDay.
Only note I had was that they noted Davos's drive-by vote on Lemon. No input.

Delta was my main pyxxy teammate profile, though. In that regard, I melded with Epig's D2 case. Signs of lifelining pyxxy into playing better and creating a cushion for a feasible counterwagon, till it proved too late. Could be.

"I didn't even process Delta toDay" is a very odd thing to say about a teammate. I mean, yes, it can be faked, but the wording is more specific than that because Rico is saying he forgot about Delta, but still hedging on the slot. This comes more often from wolves on town, than wolves on their partners.

Spoiler: show

Delta - posts
falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

I'd beg people to get off falcon but my thoughts on falcon are confusing and jumbled and I don't want to hurt town by pulling votes off a wolf if I'm wrong ugh


That said I'm rarely wrong on falcon. But Caitlin got me doubting myself...

What got you to your v!Falcon read to begin with?

I had something similar to this yesterday with people pushing Porscha ;_; so at least let's run through why you townread him to begin with and work from there? If you're rarely wrong on him, walk me through how you read him to begin with?

\o/

I read falcon entirely off vibes and D1 I hard town read how he was vibing lol

ah, got it

of our thread, I feel most confident in LC/Abbi/Sloonei/Ricochet town, Epi/Leetic/TSP to a slightly lesser extent. Leaves question marks around Falcon/Sig. if there's town in either would go back and look at those I'm not as confident.

From the other side of the thread, I think WWA/DrWilgy/MR/Nutella have all seemed fine to me, nothing sure due to being first day back w both threads but that's my gut read for the opposing thread. Off of pure gut read I dont really think DM's reactions today feel wolfy, more in line with what I've skimmed from town games, but without seeing other thread there's only so much I can say on that. The rest have kinda just been white noise, Cape slight town ping but nothing huge.

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

I'm more comfortable voting within my facility today, as I mentioned earlier, so \o/
glgl o/

member of the Arbiters of the Rose Empire

Emoji post ^
And interestingly enough, the first time Rico interacts directly with Delta in the thread is when he's (supposedly) under post restriction. I'm not going to try to make sense of it right this second because I have a headache and trying to decode emojis isn't really helping, but it's some food for thought.
How much did Rico interact with Delta in the West thread? It sounded like there was a push there, but what about direct interactions?

Spoiler: show

leetic - posts
falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

So Seanzie was mostly tunneling Porscha D2 but he also suspected falcon and Sig.

Looking at Caitlin's EoD, she was also suspecting falcon. When two nightkills in a row point to the same person, I simply can't ignore that. [VOTE: falcon] aubergine

Has nobody stopped to consider that scum falcon killing players who SR him is about as subtle as a brick?







Fur reelz, I have way more panache than that

WIFOM

Anyway, I'm fine with a falcon vote.

Sig was CW to Porscha. I'll have to reread everything though. I didn't expect the Seanzie NK, so might have to look over his reads.

Who did you think would be NK'd?

There's min 2 wolves on my wagon IMO, and it's between leetic/sig & MR/Abi







Apologies if you're all town, but I highly doubt it

member of the Arbiters of the Rose Empire

And another emoji post, this time reactions to leetic. Again, it's the first time Rico has interacted with leetic directly in this thread. How did it look over in West? (I feel like a broken record, repeating questions like this, I'm sorry lmao)

Spoiler: show

WindwardAway - posts
falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

I am curious
to hear the case on Delta
that has been mentioned


Curious that sig
and falcon are both suspects;
had early good vibes

I suspected both sig and falcon in the N0 thread lol
maybe it's time I should do a little backreading but I'd like to hear the cases on them too

Wait, there's art






Imma check it out

The submissions are great

Of the voters on my wagon, Abi & MR look the most opportunistic









[VOTE: freon] aubergine

who's Freon?

Your vote on my wagon feels opportunistic.

No it doesn't.

I like MR's response here

"Opportunistic"
is such an overused word
never good reason

It's the cheapest and easiest go-to reason for a Wolf to use as (part of) a reason to cast a vote on someone.

Town probably use it sometimes as well, it's an understandable way to feel when you're feeling besieged.

But mostly wolfy.

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine I do not feel like this is opportunistic, since I've made a case on you in the past, and have you in the red zone of my rainbow list.

I use the word more when I'm town, but regardless, I'm happy to join the "opportunism" :P

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

don't think falcon's doing himself any favors right now.

Falcon hasn't shared any townreads?
@falcon45ca is this true?

member of the Arbiters of the Rose Empire

WindwardAway - posts
☆Princess Abigail☆ - posts - Turtle on a Log (Mafia)

all of the people who claim to be good at reading falcon, dead and alive, think falcon is town

These people could all be overestimating their own abilities.

I'd personally love to know who these people are

You're one of them.

I rescinded cause Caitlin than rescinded my rescind cause me again

Vote: DM

ah, I see it now (Abbi back to townreading falcon)
hmm

member of the Landlords

Man, this is so tedious
Here's Rico's emoji reactions to me in case you guys wanna see it. He did talk to me directly before the emojiposting, though, when I asked him to give reads and he spit out those readlists I quoted earlier.

I think from Ricochet's ISO I lean slightly more town on Delta, because of the way it seemed like Rico tried to keep suspicion on the slot more consistently than on leetic, but he didn't push to yeet Delta the way he openly advocated to kill falcon. That sort of backhanded pushing is more likely on town.

[WindwardAway]

Lemon

I'm going to try to speed ISO people from the West and see but I still think we should vote within our own facilities at least for today.

Imo this is a super obvious copout to talking about any of her partners. Focused on giving reads on East, petered out before mustering the energy to post about West.
She interacted with me and talked about me plenty in this thread, so whole I can't quote stuff from East you have that to go off of (and also N0 if you really want, but you probably don't lol)

Going to try to finish up what I did yesterday but I'm not in the mood to go in as much detail for the explanations.

Cape - Generally vibed with reads. Feels like they have been reading my posts. Similar to town Cape I've seen in the past.
Sabi - Never really vibed with Sabi's reads. Didn't pay much attention to them either. Skimmed through ISO and think they could be wolf. I did think their post about thread being boring and hoping someone will stir the pot was kind of towny but it's not something solid I can lean on.
Master Radishes - Hmmm Radishes is actually OK. Next.
DrWilgy - Wilgy's ISO is not as bad as I thought it would be TBH. The frog noises tickled me. This is more of a tone read though.
DarlingMonroe - Not a lot of reads. Not feeling the tone either. Could be wolf.

Would probably order like so:
Cape
Master Radishes
Sabi
DrWilgy
Darling Monroe

If I added everyone else:
Cape
Windward
nutella

Dyslexicon
Master Radishes
DrWilgy

Nanook
Sabi
Darling Monroe

IDK how I feel about this but it is what it is.

Is there anyone from my side of the thread that stands out to you?

uhhh probably Sloonei
probably tainted by OMGUS but gut take is like nullscum level

Leetic asks Lemon for her West Facility reads, and the only one she gives is Sloonei (who flipped 3p, so not partnered).

Quick ISOs. This list is alphabetical btw.
Delta - Cheerful and cutesy first impression. Posts have mostly neutral/even tone. Will put them at mid now and change later after I've seen everyone. Could be scum.
Epignosis - Couple of takes. Feels alright.
falcon45ca - Couple of takes. Too many spaces. Feels alright.
leetic - Strong focus on pyxxy wagon and what happened. Feels alright/mid.
Long Con - Likes some posts. Probably first slot I feel OK putting in towns.
☆Princess Abigail☆ - Fighting for wolf pelt means this is probs town Abigail? Can see a few takes from rest of posts. Might be being a bit too generous.
Ricochet - Now that I've seen these wallposts, I've realized how obnoxious mine was. Sorry. ISO feels alright/pretty good.
sig - Not much there. Feels alight/mid.
Sloonei - It's kind of alright. Although the bar is set pretty low at this point. A bit wordy.
TonyStarkPrime - I remember Dyslexicon calling Tony town at least twice (not relevant but thought I'd mention it). After ISOing, feels mid.
Scrappy Doo - Definitely better than whatever Davos is doing. Towny tone. Feels alright.

Ordered list:
Long Con
Ricochet
Princess Abigail

Epignosis
falcon
Sloonei
Scrappy Doo

leetic
Tony
sig

Delta

Something like this.
I skimmed a lot so take it with salt.

Lemon didn't make a thorough wallpost on her West takes like she did for East. Delta lands at the bottom of her West Facility readlist and her read on them is kinda hedgy. Leetic lands in the middle of the list and her read feels more dismissive than it is of Delta.

So far her other partners have flipped in the all right/mid tier of her reads. Question is whether she does that to all three of her partners, or if she spices it up by moving one of them. Her entire readlist here is hedge, unfortunately then again she had a whole load of unsorted reads that were all "could be scum" in East thread and I got on her case about that, coupled with her seeming reluctance to be in the thread. She was more active once the threads merged here, possibly because she had all her partners available. But also possibly because of irl timing, it's whatever.

But what I'm seeing is that she formed her readlist on East thread based on whom she interacted with and how much, and she didn't really make an effort to interact as much with people from the West here. She kept pushing the idea we should vote within our own facilities the first day here, and obviously it was to her advantage considering falcon was a wagon. I hindsight that's funny, I remember lemon also becoming a wagon that day so basically we had w/w wagons, both arbiters. But by pushing that view, she would've been encouraging her partners to bus falcon instead of her. In the end, the votes didn't spread perfectly evenly since we had people from East voting falcon and I don't remember who was still on Lemon at eod.

ig it's confirmed multiball now
and my reads are bad

but that's ok because I didn't spend much time making that list on West people anyway

This is a stinky post
Considering she just kinda went, "oh well, guess my reads on West Facility didn't really matter" after her partner falcon flipped

Continuing to push falcon, while going against the lemonfairy wagon (the largest CW at the time).

tbh my wagon was the silliest thing I've seen in a while

Direct interaction with leetic, doesn't tell me much
It's in response to leetic's post about Wilgy

Hedges on falcon (then again, not only player they hedged on and TRs Abby. Abby's vote on them does look good on them being unpaired. It's a little odd how they ignored the huge falcon wagon, then again they were pretty insistent on voting someone from their own side.

just felt like I had more business voting for people I've spent 3 days with than people I took cumulatively 20-30 mins to ISO and order

Actually, it looks like Lemon is making a dismissive excuse to leetic here, it feels less likely to be partnered.

Lemon I think has been lurking quite a lot.

I've not lurked, I've been absent

because I was busy

Fair
Have any of your reads changed since the falcon flip?

haven't sorted them yet but I like Epi's case posts

ig leetic's were not bad either

In response to me, Lemon says leetic's posts (on falcon?) aren't bad. She doesn't go into detail on this.

Lemon I think has been lurking quite a lot.

I've not lurked, I've been absent

because I was busy

Fair
Have any of your reads changed since the falcon flip?

haven't sorted them yet but I like Epi's case posts

ig leetic's were not bad either

Ok, thanks for sharing.
Do you have any thoughts as to whether someone on falcon's team bussed him or if his partners stayed off of his wagon?

with so many people on him, yeah, they probably bussed

I mean, if he was going to go over anyway, why not get the cred?

Quoting this because I think it's relevant to the previous quote. Lemonfairy just said that she liked Epi's and leetic's cases on falcon but also agrees that the team must've bussed (we now know that Rico bussed but Lemon did not). Kind of strange that she doesn't really push on this point, even though she could.

I will join falcon

we shouldn't kill falcon

all of the people who claim to be good at reading falcon, dead and alive, think falcon is town

I’ll vote to save falcon when it comes to it

TSP was hard defending falcon all day. I think I've already pointed out how questionable the third post is.

ok, but isn't that too blatant to be w/w?

unless you're thinking they're deliberately being too blatant to come off as that and not w/w

Leetic cases TSP, Lemon defends. Not sure if leetic asks a partner to join them in their suspicion of a townie. This one gets a town point.

An attempted pivot to DM, feels a bit too opportunistic for a bus

at that point, it's antispew

Leetic points out that DM probably isn't partnered with falcon and Lemon discounts it as antispew
Feels unpartnered

wow nice kill on Ricochet

there's probably no more wolves from the West side, right?
there could be another 3p though

also didn't expect Cape to be 3p
I was technically right in reading Cape as not mafia

I shouldve thought about this a lot earlier cause it's such an easy way for her to let her last remaining partner slip through the cracks
She probably hoped nobody would ever reconsider hunting in West lol

She interacted with leetic a lot more than with Delta (read: never), and I feel like the interactions with leetic didn't really seem partnered. She gave a weak read on Delta early on and then just... never revisited it at all. It's super weird. She had the guise of stating that there shouldn't be any more wolves in West, which left her free to ignore her partner there. And Delta fits more with that description than leetic does.

Gonna need to sleep on this, and hopefully find some time between the chaos tomorrow to give this another go.

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine for now

[WindwardAway]

I guess my biggest question is, how likely is it that all of the Arbiters decided to avoid interacting with their last partner?

[WindwardAway]

At least the unvote button is back today

[WindwardAway]

I'm sure the arbiters had to shift gears after falcon flipped, but the thing is that if they intended to send someone to go deep, it would likely have been Rico, who apparently went so deep that he got NK'd lol. Unless that was just a super good vig shot.
Cause I'm guessing they didn't really expect Rico to die before Lemon, and as I said earlier, I thought Rico was one of the most ignored players from the West Facility because almost nobody was talking about his slot. I feel like it would be weird to also have Delta in that position, where Rico was mostly townread and Delta was mostly scumread, but both were treated as if they were background characters in this thread.

[WindwardAway]

As for me, idk if I really have much of a defense, I can tell you that in East thread I mostly pushed Alison and Nutella at the start, then reversed my Nutella read, happily wagoned Brad, and misyeeted Alison.

[WindwardAway]

I wanna look again at Epi's and nutella's readlists

[WindwardAway]

As for me, idk if I really have much of a defense, I can tell you that in East thread I mostly pushed Alison and Nutella at the start, then reversed my Nutella read, happily wagoned Brad, and misyeeted Alison.

I poked at Lemon a bit in East but you can pretty clearly see the continuation of it in this thread, and my vote didn't stay on her long enough for a permanent wagon