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Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:01 am
Oh, I read that.
I'm just saying I wouldn't mind playing the long game for credibility and I think you'd do something similar (and LC certainly wouldn't be opposed to that).
Maybe that's true in your case. But I am not making a mechanically suboptimal kill unless it provides some kind of clear and major psychological advantage. Killing Wilgy doesn't make me look any better, as evidenced by the current wagon. I'm not even sure the "gambit" approach would even occur to me as mafia, because I play the game straight. I pursue the advantage in front of me.
Anyway, if people aren't going to take this evidence seriously, then there's no reason for me to keep babbling about it. I'm glad this wasn't a mafia gambit, because good lord it sucked as a gambit. Absolute failure.
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Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:01 am
Oh, I read that.
I'm just saying I wouldn't mind playing the long game for credibility and I think you'd do something similar (and LC certainly wouldn't be opposed to that).
Maybe that's true in your case. But I am not making a mechanically suboptimal kill unless it provides some kind of clear and major psychological advantage. Killing Wilgy doesn't make me look any better, as evidenced by the current wagon. I'm not even sure the "gambit" approach would even occur to me as mafia, because I play the game straight. I pursue the advantage in front of me.
Anyway, if people aren't going to take this evidence seriously, then there's no reason for me to keep babbling about it. I'm glad this wasn't a mafia gambit, because good lord it sucked as a gambit. Absolute failure.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
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Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:08 am
Sell me on LoRab.
Confidence only moderate if that, but the bare bones:
- Fits the profile of someone that may make the Wilgy kill despite the mechanical problems
- Accepted my theory (and my civilianhood) without a moment's hesitation and voted falcon. I'm not sure that was a natural decision.
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Mafia Universe
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I've love some standalone reads on falcon, LoRab, and Simon without regard for theory relating to Wilgy's death. If anyone could pop open those posts and say "this is suspicious" or "this is a civilian", that'd go a long way. I only barely care about my own behavioral judgments in this environment. This is not the kind of game I solve effectively.
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Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:18 am
13 players.
Three mafia is 10-3 ordinarily, which is not balanced and I think you know that.
You are buying that Tony is indie, which makes it 9-3-1.
I feel like YOU aren't thinking things through.
You could have even made a mistake as a killer. Right?
10-3 games are very ordinary. I don't think it's terribly balanced either, but it's much more commonplace than 11-2 would be. (or 9-3-1 is more common than 10-2-1)
I have no idea what leetic views as balanced. I am also very much not saying anything about Tony's claim.
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Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:04 am
I suppose my hang up is the expectation that everyone is going to play "optimally" as mafia. I have hosted a ton and that just doesn't happen all the time.
To be clear: most people won't.
In this particular case, there is a core mechanic at work. Some people would miss it. I think some people would not. Tony would not. I know that I would not, but folks can take that or leave it.
I suspect you wouldn't miss it if you were mafia and had proper incentive to read and absorb all that stuff. But I don't have the same degree of confidence.
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Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:01 pm
While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.
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Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:04 am
I suppose my hang up is the expectation that everyone is going to play "optimally" as mafia. I have hosted a ton and that just doesn't happen all the time.
To be clear: most people won't.
In this particular case, there is a core mechanic at work. Some people would miss it. I think some people would not. Tony would not. I know that I would not, but folks can take that or leave it.
I suspect you wouldn't miss it if you were mafia and had proper incentive to read and absorb all that stuff. But I don't have the same degree of confidence.
I do NOT have my head wrapped around this. Too busy.
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Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:01 pm
While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.
I still think falcon is a hit, because of the blunderkill on Wilgy. I think falcon's focus on the game has been more "light touch" than "deep analysis", and therefore fits the bill on that one. Not saying falcon couldn't be quite aware of slightly more complex factors, but not this game. I should have read over his ISO before writing this, but I'm fine doing it after.
When I read his ISO a the end of Day 1, viewing it as "falcon is a Wolf'" struck me hard with suspicion for him. I looked at it again, trying to view it as "I think this guy is town", and I felt a little better, though there were some parts that I felt like I had to stretch my opinion to accept every post as Towny. Whereas the Wolfy read flowed very easily.
sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:47 pm
Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.
Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.
I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.
It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.
Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.
Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.
My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.
If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon
You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.
If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.
Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.
I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be
Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen
This post has sent me ISOing twice now. First time, I was like "Did Scotty really heavily suspect JJJ?" It was not what I remembered, but reading Scotty's ISO showed me the progression from townread to scumlean. So yeah, Scotty suspected JJJ, but "heavily suspect" is an exaggeration when it was a Scum Lean at its lowest point.
Second time, I looked at Wilgy again. Wilgy suspected falcon MORE than JJJ, and tried to shift the vote to him. His suspicion of JJJ was entirely a gut feeling as far as I can tell, contrasting what his head was telling him. If Wilgy "heavily suspected" JJJ, then he would have easily just voted for him and put him in the lead at Day's end.
Looking over motobot's ISO, I think his early vote is Towny, and I think his JJJ progression across the whole Day is Towny. The changes in his opinion seem uncontrived.
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sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:47 pm
Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.
Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.
I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.
It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.
Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.
Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.
My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.
If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon
You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.
If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.
Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.
I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be
Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen
This post has sent me ISOing twice now. First time, I was like "Did Scotty really heavily suspect JJJ?" It was not what I remembered, but reading Scotty's ISO showed me the progression from townread to scumlean. So yeah, Scotty suspected JJJ, but "heavily suspect" is an exaggeration when it was a Scum Lean at its lowest point.
Second time, I looked at Wilgy again. Wilgy suspected falcon MORE than JJJ, and tried to shift the vote to him. His suspicion of JJJ was entirely a gut feeling as far as I can tell, contrasting what his head was telling him. If Wilgy "heavily suspected" JJJ, then he would have easily just voted for him and put him in the lead at Day's end.
So, I don't care for falcon's hyperbole here.
Yeah Wilgy sussed me as well, and he also had Jay as SR. I recall Jay & I being his top SRs, or thereabouts.
I also recall Scotty having Jay near the top of his scum list. I did not ISO him, I went from memory
It makes sense then to you that I kill Scotty for TR me, and then I kill Wilgy for SR me...why don't I just kill Wilgy N1? He was sus of me D1 IIRC
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falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:43 pmIt makes sense then to you that I kill Scotty for TR me, and then I kill Wilgy for SR me...why don't I just kill Wilgy N1? He was sus of me D1 IIRC
It makes sense to me that Wolves think different thoughts and come to different decisions as the game evolves.
I do not agree with trying to frame these events as a connected master plan. You killed Scotty for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 1, and you killed Wilgy for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 2. Asking why you wouldn't shortcut the Wilgy kill to Night 1 doesn't make sense to me.
Furthermore, and I just want to get this right, are you implying that my idea of why you would choose those kills is "Scotty for TR you" and "Wilgy for SR you"?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:17 pm
@falcon45ca please me a single read other than “Jay is mafia”.
Sure
moto & Simon both can be Maf. I don't think they both necessarily are, but really the only engagement I've noticed is responding to tags & quotes w/ answers that seem more about fulfilling the need to answer, rather than actually trying to solve & move the game forward
I think Epi is town? But really he's a hard read for me, I will say he's more involved than I normally associate w/ his scum game, ergo town for now
Long Con's approach strikes me as genuinely trying to solve, and his reads don't come across as throwaways, but rather the result of a logical process. I wouldn't look there til an F3
TSP there's just a je nais se quoi about his posting tone that just feels natural. I'd say the same is true of sig, tho I've not noticed him ITT as much
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:43 pmIt makes sense then to you that I kill Scotty for TR me, and then I kill Wilgy for SR me...why don't I just kill Wilgy N1? He was sus of me D1 IIRC
It makes sense to me that Wolves think different thoughts and come to different decisions as the game evolves.
I do not agree with trying to frame these events as a connected master plan. You killed Scotty for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 1, and you killed Wilgy for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 2. Asking why you wouldn't shortcut the Wilgy kill to Night 1 doesn't make sense to me.
Furthermore, and I just want to get this right, are you implying that my idea of why you would choose those kills is "Scotty for TR you" and "Wilgy for SR you"?
No, I'm wondering what you'd think those motivations would be, as you're certainly speculating re: Wilgy. I figure you'd do it for both
Although! There is a player it does make sense from, and it rhymes with SchmaggedSchmimmySchmay
LoRab wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:37 pm
This post pinged my suspiciometer:
Simon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:34 pm
I just realized that one of the advantages that I have in this game so far,(and it's a big one for people like JJJ,)is the fact that I have zero history playing this, (without any help at least.)
The reason I used JJJ as an example is because from what I understand, his play style revolves around comparing people from past experiences, such as being Mafia from a previous game.
From what I understand, JJJ can't seem to get a good read on me. Because at first he was accusing and/or questioning me.
However since my most recent large post, (about JJJ throwing crap at people,) he suddenly started to suspect me less, which I don't understand. But if I wrote it well, then fine, ok sure.
But from recent replies, people were already likely to figure that out sooner or later, so again, I don't know how a single Post can change so much about wether you trust someone or not.
Too much reminding us that he’s inexperienced and mentions this in other posts, as well. It feels a lot like nope, not me, don’t kill the newbie. It just didn’t sit right with me.
You wanted a reply from me, well here I am.
And yeah, the more I think about it after reading this post, the more annoying I sound in this regard. But on the other hand I was also stating that was still inexperienced for not knowing what kind of behavior I would see from different players, in which I would later figure out.
If you also want me to shut up about it, I will. There's no real point in rubbing it in, especially if people already know about this.
not a matter of annoying. You’re not. It’s a matter of you looking bad.
I should be able to be popping in and out for the rest of the phase.
Still at work (ew even though 6pm) but I’ll be around ish.
I see my Jay vote didn’t go anywhere, which sucks.
I’m still pretty sure he’s mafia, buuuuuut I’ll table it until we get closer to end game then y’all will listen to me :P
I’ll reread Falcon, I’m torn on him he doesn’t seem to be playing within his mafia meta and I did successfully call it out the last two games we played, but both of those games were more active generally.
Lorab. I only see her as mafia if we subscribe to Jays theory, which I don’t right now.Does anyone have insight on her mafia meta? I can’t remember it.
Simon I could see, but like there’s a risk in voting him off no?
I’m confident mafia is among the AS voters at least one.
I’m pretty sure Jay is Mafia.
That could leave TSP, LC, Falcon, lorab, and Simon
Moto is solid town for me.
Epi is solid town.
So 2-3 mafia in these.
Eeek I guess I’m fine with any of these options? I’ll need to try to catch up fully and maybe do some ISO