Kagemusha (ENDGAME)

[Long Con]

Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

Flipside tinfoil: falcon and Tony made that kill so that we'd see his tinfoil and believe in it.

Not trying to stifle the start of a day, but why is one more likely than the other?

[Simon]

I just realized that one of the advantages that I have in this game so far,(and it's a big one for people like JJJ,)is the fact that I have zero history playing this, (without any help at least.)

The reason I used JJJ as an example is because from what I understand, his play style revolves around comparing people from past experiences, such as being Mafia from a previous game.

From what I understand, JJJ can't seem to get a good read on me. Because at first he was accusing and/or questioning me.

However since my most recent large post, (about JJJ throwing crap at people,) he suddenly started to suspect me less, which I don't understand. But if I wrote it well, then fine, ok sure.

But from recent replies, people were already likely to figure that out sooner or later, so again, I don't know how a single Post can change so much about wether you trust someone or not.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

Flipside tinfoil: falcon and Tony made that kill so that we'd see his tinfoil and believe in it.

Not trying to stifle the start of a day, but why is one more likely than the other?

They can certainly be mafia just by virtue of being threatened by Wilgy. I doubt they’d have Epi/moto in mind making that kill, but it doesn’t matter much.

As for what’s most likely, I truly have no idea. The answer to that would depend on the entire state of the game. Falcon and/or Tony would mean we’ve been close and unlucky. Epi and/or motobot would mean we’ve been nowhere close. I could see it either way. The game is bung.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I just realized that one of the advantages that I have in this game so far,(and it's a big one for people like JJJ,)is the fact that I have zero history playing this, (without any help at least.)

The reason I used JJJ as an example is because from what I understand, his play style revolves around comparing people from past experiences, such as being Mafia from a previous game.

From what I understand, JJJ can't seem to get a good read on me. Because at first he was accusing and/or questioning me.

However since my most recent large post, (about JJJ throwing crap at people,) he suddenly started to suspect me less, which I don't understand. But if I wrote it well, then fine, ok sure.

But from recent replies, people were already likely to figure that out sooner or later, so again, I don't know how a single Post can change so much about wether you trust someone or not.

I understand why it might seem odd for one post to be so telling, but that is often the case — perhaps even more often than not. One reason I love highly active games as a civilian is that it creates more opportunities for moments like that.

[Epignosis]

Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

What is this happy horseshit?

We killed Scotty because he said we're good? We killed Wilgy because he said we're bad?

You need a new Magic 8 Ball.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

What is this happy horseshit?

We killed Scotty because he said we're good? We killed Wilgy because he said we're bad?

You need a new Magic 8 Ball.

He said you're less good than anyone else said you were.

I probably do need a new Magic 8 Ball. Doing my best here.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Town reads:
Tony
Simon
Falcon
Wilgy

Townlean:
Moto
Epi

Scumlean:
JJJ
Long con

SCUMREAD:
Princess Abbi

TALK MORE:
Lorab
Sig
Abbi sophia

Referring to this, to be clear.

[Epignosis]

Town reads:
Tony
Simon
Falcon
Wilgy

Townlean:
Moto
Epi

Scumlean:
JJJ
Long con

SCUMREAD:
Princess Abbi

TALK MORE:
Lorab
Sig
Abbi sophia

Referring to this, to be clear.

I could just as easily (more easily) say "JJJ and LC" killed Scotty. It'd be a less radical theory.

[Epignosis]

Talk to me about why you specifically tied me with moto in your scenario rather than Long Con.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Talk to me about why you specifically tied me with moto in your scenario rather than Long Con.

Because Wilgy said it, and I had thought about it at least once prior. You and motobot fit together like a glove if I ignore the things that make you look like civilians on your own. I have no good reason to say that about Long Con and motobot. It's also possible, just not as overt.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I could just as easily (more easily) say "JJJ and LC" killed Scotty. It'd be a less radical theory.

That's similar to what I was just discussing with LC.

We might need a radical theory. Generic theories are 0 for 2, and I have zero confidence about staying the course.

[Long Con]

Shingen has powers. Ask him.

[Long Con]

Also had BTSC with Abigail Sophia, so... that's something.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

One thing I will say and then refuse to expand on. Anyone is free to explore for themselves though.

DrWilgy is a strange kill following Abigail Sophia's flip.

[Long Con]

If we stick with Abigail voters then we can keep Shingen safer?

[Epignosis]

Also had BTSC with Abigail Sophia, so... that's something.

Yep- pretty easy to work out who isn't that role.

[Long Con]

One thing I will say and then refuse to expand on. Anyone is free to explore for themselves though.

DrWilgy is a strange kill following Abigail Sophia's flip.

He's not Shingen.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Thoughts before the kids pull me away again.

My brain has observed a pattern with Jay that appears wolfy. I will probably require a flip to solve. Do I push for said flip and vote there or allow the opportunity for a Jay solve that's often highly beneficial for town?

Probably should yeet Falc.

No other thoughts.

Oh, Sig is probably town.

I don't really remember much else from my skin so what I advised from D1 still applies.

Just mulling over Wilgy reads for the sake of night kill analysis. It's unlikely he was killed for the right reason, so we can examine the wrong reasons (e.g., feeling threatened or something similar).

[Epignosis]

Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.

Does it matter after today?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.

Does it matter after today?

Sure, if it results in double-kills.

[Long Con]

Falcon was clearly Wilgy's big suspect. He attempted a possible hot potato onto him at the end there.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Scotty town read falcon, but he didn't actually say anything about falcon. It's a minor hang-up, not necessarily a theory-breaker.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Falcon was clearly Wilgy's big suspect. He attempted a possible hot potato onto him at the end there.

I was a bit irked at myself for not following him. I kinda figured it'd just get me killed.

[Long Con]

Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.

Does it matter after today?

Sure, if it results in double-kills.

I don't think it's a good strategy to avoid discussing something like that, because I doubt it's likely they don't know.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Could be, I dunno. The Wilgy kill suggests that at the very least, they don't have a grip on how to achieve that bonus.

If Tony is a civilian he is going to hate this conversation.

[Epignosis]

Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.

Does it matter after today?

Sure, if it results in double-kills.

Didn't remember the setup properly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I mean, by that logic, we have a POE of five. I still think Epi's sons look like civilians. So...

falcon, LoRab, sig

How do we feel about that?

[Long Con]

I guess sig would be the last on the chopping block from that list, given the reeds earlier.

[Long Con]

LOL voice to text.

[TonyStarkPrime]

RIP Wilgy.

I thought the thief WAS Kagemusha, from the opening description. The thief is identical to the daimyō, but is Shingen the daimyō? And Kagemusha replaces Shingen, so I thought they would be identical.

But now I don't know, because AS didn't flip Kagemusha, so the thief is someone different? Hopefully, a Wolf? Also, there was no alignment given in the host post?

The thief is kagemusha

[JaggedJimmyJay]

sig killing Wilgy would be a bit odd. Maybe that points to a team of two then? falcon and LoRab?

We'd said it's possible to have a small team with the double-kill mechanic in play. Dangerous to bank on it.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I should be cleared by wilgy kill lol

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I should be cleared by wilgy kill lol

Agreed mostly

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Me too TBQFH

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’m considering it

[Long Con]

The Scotty and Wilgy kills are both done by someone who knows that they're very good.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Could be, I dunno. The Wilgy kill suggests that at the very least, they don't have a grip on how to achieve that bonus.

If Tony is a civilian he is going to hate this conversation.

shut up mr teddy bear

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The Scotty and Wilgy kills are both done by someone who knows that they're very good.

Consistent with falconRab theory.

[TonyStarkPrime]

ok super late

[TonyStarkPrime]

falconRab is buyable

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’m getting this out now since I don’t think it matters but probably adds to my win percentage. I’m a 3p survivor. I can only win with town. I don’t add to parity, so wolves — don’t kill me. If you (town) think I’m lying and waste time trying to kill me you will almost certainly lose the game to mech. I will spite anyone who tries this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hereby acknowledge Tony's post and continue voting Not Tony.

[TonyStarkPrime]

And I’ll prove I’m genuinely invested in a town victory by continuing to play the game despite the fact that a 3p survivor claim at this stage in this game should just float

[TonyStarkPrime]

I hereby acknowledge Tony's post and continue voting Not Tony.

Yeah that’s really all the talking that needs to be done about it but I’d like it selfishly if we could make sure wolves saw it so they didn’t kill me

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don’t think Moto can be a wolf now. I think we shouldn’t kill anyone in the “should be a wolf kill” pool (though if Abigail was actually Kage I’ll hope for a smart bus). I’ll clear Epi/LC/hesitantly Jay for now. Three, maybe four reasonable candidates left, pool of two for the day.

[TonyStarkPrime]

But lets be real if Jay is town and wolves had the opportunity to get that flip and passed it up, either they’re silly or they had info or they just weren’t around

Which like also clears me along with all the other things that clear me

[TonyStarkPrime]

Now if they did have info it would make up for the small team along with the 3p role