The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:37 pm The unfortunate lol-reality would be if this logic is broken because mafia didn't know the thief is Kagemusha.

Which is why both Tony and I should be almost hard-cleared.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:38 pm As like a “mechanism by which the wolves appear to not know what’s going on”

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:40 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:38 pm As like a “mechanism by which the wolves appear to not know what’s going on”

And to build on that: I think both Epi and LC would ask in mafia chat what the thief is. They'd figure it out.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:33 pm I don’t think Moto can be a wolf now. I think we shouldn’t kill anyone in the “should be a wolf kill” pool (though if Abigail was actually Kage I’ll hope for a smart bus). I’ll clear Epi/LC/hesitantly Jay for now. Three, maybe four reasonable candidates left, pool of two for the day.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:42 pm And that's also good night from me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:43 pm Yes. If you give me a choice between:

Door #1: weird gambit in a world where people could easily not even catch on

Door #2: kill two people at the same time

Well, I'm gonna open the right door.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:19 pm Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:34 pm But lets be real if Jay is town and wolves had the opportunity to get that flip and passed it up, either they’re silly or they had info or they just weren’t around

Which like also clears me along with all the other things that clear me

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:40 pm gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:12 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:31 pm Thoughts before the kids pull me away again.

My brain has observed a pattern with Jay that appears wolfy. I will probably require a flip to solve. Do I push for said flip and vote there or allow the opportunity for a Jay solve that's often highly beneficial for town?

Probably should yeet Falc.

No other thoughts.

Oh, Sig is probably town.

I don't really remember much else from my skin so what I advised from D1 still applies.

Just mulling over Wilgy reads for the sake of night kill analysis. It's unlikely he was killed for the right reason, so we can examine the wrong reasons (e.g., feeling threatened or something similar).

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:13 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:19 pm Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

“Only kinda here”

Excuse me? I’m being very active this game more so than the vast amount of the player base.

This seems like you’re trying to “mech solve” your way to more non mafia kills

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:05 am @falcon45ca, what’s milquetoast is grabbing any reference to Wilgy and saying “is this why Wilgt was killed?”

Snore

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:18 am Nearly 300 posts before D3 is even half over, and you want us to believe that if you were Maf you'd have a stranglehold on the thread.




You do

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:19 am I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:48 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:16 pm Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

What is this happy horseshit?

We killed Scotty because he said we're good? We killed Wilgy because he said we're bad?

You need a new Magic 8 Ball.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:59 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:48 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:16 pm Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

What is this happy horseshit?

We killed Scotty because he said we're good? We killed Wilgy because he said we're bad?

You need a new Magic 8 Ball.

He said you're less good than anyone else said you were.

I probably do need a new Magic 8 Ball. Doing my best here.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:02 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:00 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 8:55 pm Town reads:
Tony
Simon
Falcon
Wilgy

Townlean:
Moto
Epi

Scumlean:
JJJ
Long con

SCUMREAD:
Princess Abbi

TALK MORE:
Lorab
Sig
Abbi sophia

Referring to this, to be clear.

I could just as easily (more easily) say "JJJ and LC" killed Scotty. It'd be a less radical theory.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:05 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:02 pm Talk to me about why you specifically tied me with moto in your scenario rather than Long Con.

Because Wilgy said it, and I had thought about it at least once prior. You and motobot fit together like a glove if I ignore the things that make you look like civilians on your own. I have no good reason to say that about Long Con and motobot. It's also possible, just not as overt.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:06 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:02 pm I could just as easily (more easily) say "JJJ and LC" killed Scotty. It'd be a less radical theory.

That's similar to what I was just discussing with LC.

We might need a radical theory. Generic theories are 0 for 2, and I have zero confidence about staying the course.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:24 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:19 am I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

Evidence? I'd like to hear what the "evidence" actually is, and I do appreciate the euphemism in the bolded bit

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:08 pm One thing I will say and then refuse to expand on. Anyone is free to explore for themselves though.

DrWilgy is a strange kill following Abigail Sophia's flip.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:14 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:13 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:12 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:10 pm Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.

Does it matter after today?

Sure, if it results in double-kills.

I don't think it's a good strategy to avoid discussing something like that, because I doubt it's likely they don't know.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:16 pm Could be, I dunno. The Wilgy kill suggests that at the very least, they don't have a grip on how to achieve that bonus.

If Tony is a civilian he is going to hate this conversation.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:19 pm Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:22 pm I mean, by that logic, we have a POE of five. I still think Epi's sons look like civilians. So...

falcon, LoRab, sig

How do we feel about that?

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:21 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:40 pm gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:19 pm Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:27 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:24 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:19 am I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

Evidence? I'd like to hear what the "evidence" actually is, and I do appreciate the euphemism in the bolded bit

We spent an hour discussing that evidence last night. Do you understand why DrWilgy is a poor kill choice? Don’t give me the conspiracy theory wifom crap (exactly why I don’t gambit), and look at the facts.

LoRab wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:46 amResponding to all your points in this quote and following. While my posting has missed a ton, I’ve read everything. And, I also agree with your logic on this in general.

I agree that falcon is a good choice for a vote. Especially after his response to the accusation.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:21 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:40 pm gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:24 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:21 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:40 pm gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

it's been a bit hard to solve particularly around the kids and a bunch of people who have had somewhat limited thread impact, especially now that we're taking epi and LC as clears (I think a bit? prematurely) and moving from there. Do I think Jay should be looking into epi/lc? yeah, I do. Epi's a very good player but he's not typically as mechanically minded. His strong preference would be to play the game straight and not worry about the situation. If his partner were, say, Moto -- well, there'd be no one on the team who'd have a strong inclination towards making "correct" kills.