The Syndicate

Holy crap, I didn't realize Captain Fantastic was directed by the actor who plays Gavin Belson in Silicon Valley...

I've seen just about all I can see before the big show, so here are my thoughts:

Best Picture
Arrival - I quite enjoyed this for its emotional underpinnings, but the sci-fi plot end of the film is problematic.
Fences - brutally honest film, judging you as you judge its lead character. But Denzel could have done more with it.
Hacksaw Ridge - a garbage screenplay tacked onto a visceral war film. But when I say garbage.. I mean, this is the whole dump level bad.
La La Land - Overshoots repeatedly, needed to be reigned in, but man, when it hits it hits BIG. Your winner, right here.
Manchester by the Sea - this cut me to the bone. Would be a WELL-deserved winner, if it could win, which it probably can't.
Moonlight - A great film, and the only film other than Manchester that I think would be worthy of being called Best Picture.

Actor, Leading
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea - Stunning work, just stunning. The only thing holding him back from destroying this category is the ongoing controversies dogging him about how he treats women on the sets of his films.
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge - He's great in both if his big roles this year, and his anchoring of Silence could lend him some votes here... don't count him out as a shock winner
Ryan Gosling, La La Land - he fits the film perfectly and has great chemistry with Stone. I can't see that being enough to win, but if La La sweeps, Gosling could possibly be swept into a win?
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic - he's always solid and does good work with his role here, but the film is awful and lets him down. He's the only one of the five who I can say has zero chance of winning.
Denzel Washington, Fences - As a director, Denzel didn't do enough. As an actor, he did more than enough. He knows the role so well, the whole film is his baby, he could def win this.

This is a surprisingly competitive category, and a super solid one. I think affleck gets it but Denzel and Garfield could both spoil, and if La La is huge... hoenstly, I wouldn't bet any money on this category.

Actress, Leading
Isabelle Huppert, Elle - amazing work, amazing career, amazing woman. Definitely a main contender.
Natalie Portman, Jackie - Very modulated, studied, rehearsed work, very much a la Daniel Day-Lewis for my money. I think if she hadn't won before, she'd win this year, but that previous win will push her out of contention.
Emma Stone, La La Land - If Huppert hasn't got this sewed up, Stone will take it. La La Land is her big moment, easily her best work yet.

Actor, Supporting
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - Moonlight could have been nominated several different ways, and I'd have preferred to see Andre Holland here, but Ali is great in his limited screen time, and would be a fine winner.
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea - An interesting performance, as on one hand he doesn't seem to be "acting" but on the other he is acting just like a teenager, so maybe he's in a way great? He has no chance, anyway.
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals - A popular actor but I can't see him beating Ali.

Actress, Supporting
Viola Davis, Fences - I really hope she wins. She puts so much of herself into the role she blows snot bubbles. Do you know how invested in a role you have to be to do that, lol? She's amazing here.
Naomie Harris, Moonlight - the only performance I did not like in the film, so I'm not rooting for her
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea - She's kind of bad in the film, and her role in underwritten anyway. I'd hate for her to win here.

Directing
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival - Villeneuve is def. going to win this one day, but it won't be this year even if Arrival was solid.
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge - I guess he's all cool, now? Can't complain about his work in the battle scenes, at least.
Damien Chazelle, La La Land - One of only 2 people who can win this, and really, the only one. But Whiplash was tighter and better/
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea - I think he gets more props as a writer than a director. I'd be stunned if he won, but happily stunned
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - the most assured, solid directing effort of the five, this SHOULD be his award. But there is no way he'll beat Chazelle.

Good stuff, timmer, we're much on the same side, except at Michelle Williams is bad in Manchester (why), Manchester being worthy (ech), kid in Manchester being good (ech).

If you like Huppert, please track down L'avenir (Things to Come). I pretty much don't believe, chance-wise, in her getting the Oscar, because older better foreigner actresses have been acknowledged in the past years, but never awarded (Emmanuelle Riva in Amour, Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years).

Oh I loved Things To Come!

Y u no post in the movies thread regularly?

Lol I guess I just tend to forget?

Dunno why I remembered Viola Davis having won an Oscar before. Probably mixed her up with Octavia Spencer from The Help. Anyway, I can now fully endorse her receiving it. I mean, it's still a check-all-boxes kind of performance, still the other four don't come even close to adequate contention. Both her and, ironically, Spencer yet again, are the only nominees doing a full, fleshed out role in their movies.

With two days to go, I'll go ahead and put a firm call on both my preferences and predictions for this thing.

Is Moana nominated for Best Original Score?

I feel that should win, but that's primarily because it made that movie feel like home, which means the music was completely on point. It almost made me cry in places because of how much it felt like it captured my culture (I say as a white boy who adopts the culture only by where I was born and raised).

It is not, only Best Song.

6/12 guessed right, although I can't really complain about most of my fantasy picks proving right either.

Denzel had some tears showing there, which is quite rare to see. To my living memory, only Bill Murray looked miffed about not getting it (for Lost in Translation) and I remember Joaquin Phoenix having once had a "who even cares man, I'm not going to take it" .gif moment. But to be honest, I still wouldn't have picked him.

Should've seen that screenplay nod flying towards Manchester, oh well. Should've definitely seen that Best Picture and Adapted sync would happen, as it often does.

The only award I find a travesty out of this entire business is the Original Score. Seconded probably by Best Actress. Again, I did not mind Stone's input in Bla Bla Bland, but when you reflect on it, it came nowhere close to Portman's work on her character and Huppert's sheer flair.

Lastly, quite a stunt there at the end. Quite a stunt. Moonlight getting it would have rubbed it in anyway, but I guess they decided to spice up the moment, for once.

I'm glad La La Land didn't win mostly because it would reinforce the (mostly true) notion that Hollywood is so full of themselves that they can't help but give awards to films about Hollywood/LA/the movie industry/acting in general.

It was a disgraceful mistake at the end. I feel bad for Beatty and Dunaway because they must feel like idiots for simply doing their job. Then again, why the heck didn't Beatty ask for clarification? If he thought it would make him look foolish, then the joke is on him. I feel bad for all the La La Land folk who got up on stage and then had to turn tail and sneak away. That's awkward and hard to live down. Finally, I feel terrible for the Moonlight people. It's bad enough that few people (especially few Americans) will ever watch that film, but just about everyone will always remember 'that movie that won the year the Oscars screwed up Best Picture.' That is a horrible footnote to be relegated to.

I have the impression that, with a bit more presence of mind, Beatty could have perhaps set things right - albeit still adding a few more seconds to an awkward interruption of an otherwise standard award call. He literally hesitated a lot there, but I think he then reached out to Faye, she must have interpreted as being let to announce it and went "LA LA LAND", lol. Murky stuff to disseminate, anyway.

Of course one can feel bad about the winners and losers involved during that minute, but a stunt is still a stunt, even if they weren't part of it. If anything, this has dispelled a bit my belief that these wins are well known in advance, by the winners.

I don't think Best Picture movies in the collective memory of the common moviegoers is a much relevant topic - especially given how much more campaigning through the process of nominations and awards weighs in. Is Spotlight from last year remembered, even though it was awarded "properly"? [/i]If the former were true, the real winner of the night would then be Suicide Squad, lol. Piece of utter crap, was seen by millions of people, now has an Oscar. Moonlight surely did its fair share of lobbying to push ahead during the last stretch, plus as far as interested cinephiles are concerned, it has toured and maybe still will tour many festivals.

Ricochet wrote:I don't think Best Picture movies in the collective memory of the common moviegoers is a much relevant topic

This is a very valid point. Ask the average American to name a Best Picture winner and (depending on their age) the most likely two answers will be The Godfather and Titanic. A lot of Best Picture winners lack staying power, in my opinion. As diverse as viewing tastes and habits have become, it's hard for a Best Picture winner to enter the cultural consciousness for simply winning the award. Sometimes the awards chase after films that seem to be entering cultural consciousness though. It seems like it's easier to remember what didn't win (aka what some perceive as getting robbed).

Case in point- what was the last Best Picture winner to have both lasting popularity and impact on film?

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King? Unless you want to question the "impact on film" part.

One could argue even Gladiator or American Beauty - and they both happened in successive years.

They should have let Steve Harvey announce the winner.

Ricochet wrote:The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King?

Here's every Best Picture winner thus far:
I have seen 61 of the films on that list (still working on the rest- the wife and I took a break two years ago and will get back on track this summer). Very few of them pack that one-two punch of being liked and impacting filmmaking. Only a few of the recent ones had a shelf life of more than a few years.

I don't know if I can agree with you on Gladiator. Sometimes the Academy just falls in love with a spectacle (didn't hurt to appease the masses either). What did it do for film? It didn't bring back sword and sandals flicks and CGI was already on the rise. Is it the notion that popular entertainment can also be artistically executed?

As for American Beauty, I was not a fan early on. It's amusing more so than ground-breaking for me. It owes a lot of it's hip, sarcastic, and self-deprecating stylings to Quentin Tarantino and the early 90s indie film renaissance. In some ways, it's like Pulp Fiction's intentionally hip construct meets suburbia.

I take back my interpretation of Beatty. Saw this video (Facebook only?) and it appears he was a bit of a douche, after all, lol.

G-Man wrote:
I don't know if I can agree with you on Gladiator. Sometimes the Academy just falls in love with a spectacle (didn't hurt to appease the masses either). What did it do for film? It didn't bring back sword and sandals flicks and CGI was already on the rise. Is it the notion that popular entertainment can also be artistically executed?

As for American Beauty, I was not a fan early on. It's amusing more so than ground-breaking for me. It owes a lot of it's hip, sarcastic, and self-deprecating stylings to Quentin Tarantino and the early 90s indie film renaissance. In some ways, it's like Pulp Fiction's intentionally hip construct meets suburbia.

If anything, your arguments do tend to prove there is a crevasse between popularity and film impact, because I weighed more on the former when bringing these two up. I'm more of an AmBeaut fan that you, it seems. I recall its execution (say pace and screenplay) of its dry, comical, "pulpy" as you say essence being noteworthy.

How did Shakespeare in Love win best picture? Must have been a slow year.

thellama73 wrote:How did Shakespeare in Love win best picture? Must have been a slow year.

Of course it wasn't. There was Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line in the BP nominees alone.

There was American History X, The Big Lebowski, Aronofsky's Pi, Rushmore, The Truman Show, Velvet Goldmine, Mulan.

There was Kusturica's Black Cat, White Cat, Vinterberg's Festen, Gilliam's Fear and Loathing in Last Vegas, Tykwer's Run Lola Run, The Red Violin, the original Ringu, Taxi

A Best Picture statuette is not a unit measure for worth.

Ricochet wrote:

thellama73 wrote:How did Shakespeare in Love win best picture? Must have been a slow year.

Of course it wasn't. There was Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line in the BP nominees alone.

There was American History X, The Big Lebowski, Aronofsky's Pi, Rushmore, The Truman Show, Velvet Goldmine, Mulan.

There was Kusturica's Black Cat, White Cat, Vinterberg's Festen, Gilliam's Fear and Loathing in Last Vegas, Tykwer's Run Lola Run, The Red Violin, the original Ringu, Taxi

A Best Picture statuette is not a unit measure for worth.

I don't know why exactly but I am in love with the movie The Red Violin. I'm glad to see someone else has at least heard of it as it is not a widely known movie.

Hard to believe Saving Private Ryan didn't win that year as it is the kind of movie it seems like the Academy usually goes for.

Ok Sandra Bullock looks like she is made of latex.

Quick knee-jerk predictions/hopes/snubs:

Best Picture

What I'd Like to Win: Call Me By Your Name
What's Probably Gonna Win: The Shape Of Water
What Shoulda Been Nominated: The Florida Project

Best Actor

Like to Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Gonna Win: Daniel Day-Lewis (screw Oldman)
Shoulda Been Nominated: Robert Pattinson, Good Time

Best Actress

Like to Win: Saorise Ronan
Gonna Win: Frances McDormand
Shoulda Been Nominated: J-Law, mother! Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread

Best Supporting Actor

Like to Win: Willem Dafoe
Gonna Win: Sam Rockwell
Shoulda Been Nominated: Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Best Supporting Actress

Like to Win: Lesley Manville
Gonna Win: Laurie Metcalf
Shoulda Been Nominated: Tilda Swinton, Okja Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project

Best Director

Like to Win: Jordan Peele
Gonna Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Shoulda Been Nominated: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name. Denis Villenueve, Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Screenplay

Like to Win: Lady Bird
Gonna Win: Three Billboards
Shoulda Been Nominated: A Ghost Story, Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Like to Win: Call Me By Your Name
Gonna Win: Call Me By Your Name
Shoulda Been Nominated: Blade Runner 2049, The Death of Stalin

and that's all the awards I care about

I've watched an alarming few of those yet. I tend to avoid really hyped movies till later so that expectations aren't disappointed.

also, I find it hilarious that Logan was released last year??? Feels like it was 3 years ago at least.