Guess Who? Mafia

[Marmot]

Up next, Epignosis.

Epignosis was the first player to go after DDL, and did so early on Day 1. Epignosis placed the first vote on DDL on Day 1 as well.

Spoiler: show

Also, I'm announcing now that I will vote for Missing Person if there is no avatar by the time I leave for the airport tomorrow.

Is that even a good idea? If Missing Person doesn't put an avatar she's just going to get modkilled, right?

Where did you get that idea?

Addendum:

I didn't? It was just a guess. I've never played a game hosted by Elo so I don't know.

That's a pretty specific guess.

Epignosis responds to Golden's accusations of being quiet with a tired-sounding response, and a good reason case for lynching DDL later. I'm feeling good about Epignosis thus far, as well as his vote later on Day 1.

Spoiler: show

One thing that bothers me a little is that some people are a little quieter than I'd like - epi, hedge, daisy and ninja come to mind for me here. Although it could be because of the conflated timeframe by which to make our first vote. I think I might seem quieter than usual too. But I have my eye on this going forward.

I'm a little tired of this. When I post a lot, people say I'm distracting. When I don't, people say I'm "a little quieter" than they like. I post when I have something to say. Sometimes that's a lot. Sometimes it's not.

I've questioned DDL on a few points here and there. The former item makes me wonder if DDL asked in BTSC what would happen if Missing Person didn't post an avatar, and the host told. He says it was a guess. I don't believe that. The second item exaggerates fingersplints' attitude and makes it into something it isn't.

Is there anything else you like from me, Lord Golden?

After the lynch and a bunch of OT posts, Epignosis calls Black Rock's vote out from the group, mainly because of her forgetting to vote. The circumstances look bad for BR, but I still believe her. She did post when she had planned on voting rather than doing a drive-by. I disagree with Epignosis here.

Spoiler: show

Of the four, I find Black Rock's TH vote to be the fishiest. She said she would vote TH, but she held onto that vote and didn't vote until much later- three and a half hours later, less than an hour to the end of the poll. She says she forgot, but that was an important vote, and the timing was crucial: BR voted when both DDL and Golden had two votes, putting TH one vote over them.

Right after the lynch, she tried to drum up something against Golden based on a misunderstanding. There's little reason to do that if you are on a team together.

Therefore I believe Black Rock and DDL are bad.

Addendum:

DDL does the same as Epignosis, and paints a bad light on BR for her vote, but for different reasons. Epignosis calls him out and pursues him for this. Another good look for Epignosis, and a bad one for Black Rock.

Spoiler: show

Black Rock: Didn't post much, jumped on TH's lynch wagon late and didn't do much other than agreeing with others said. Looks bad. I called her out on that and her defense at least looked honest, but it's not that hard of a defense to make.

Yeah, about that:

Bummer. That was some really solid play you were making here, Ricochet. Hope I play again with you some time.

I'm reading through day 1 posts and BR's ones caught my attention. It feels to me her vote on TH was pretty oportunistic. She only agreed with what splints said then jumped on the wagon later in the phase, after waiting for two players to do it first. And did not say much more. I'm leaning mafia on her.

TBH it was opportunistic and a little frustration with TH atm. It was day 1 none of you really look that suspicious and so I voted for a non-player. He is a non-player and I don't think he would have ever showed up. I actually wasn't waiting for more people to do it. I didn't have to wait for other players to do it at all, I was already taking an easy way out.

This is what sounds honest to you? No mention of forgetting to vote here.

It is honest because if she is a townie, then it is believable. She admits her vote is easy and says she only did it later because she forgot. It can happen.

But that doesn't mean she can be called a townie, because as much honest as it COULD be, it is still an easy excuse for a mafioso to make. Honest =/= civilian-like. Her vote was still one of the worst in the phase, together with her post history.

That's circular reasoning.

Look, the point is, she could have came up with an excuse for her lack of activity and bad vote, but instead she openly came out and said "yeah my vote sucked". Even if she is mafia, there is a degree of honesty to it, because she is admitting her vote sucked.

The problem is that if she is mafia, this is an effective strategy to get people's sympathies without having to come up with an excuse.

Mmm.

Her vote sucked. I don't care about that. I care that she "forgot" to vote and then voted at a crucial moment.

One possibility is that you're mafia trying to get me lynched. But if you're town, then at the very least it means you're being sloppy.

And the other possibilities are...? That G-Man is independent? Nope. Don't see any of those.

It's equivocal posts like this that I look for, especially early on. "Maybe this, maybe that." That, plus some of the unscrupulous claims you made Day 1, like fingersplints being a defeatist?

I've already said I am most suspicious of Black Rock and DDL.

Guess who got my vote?

Yes, this shit again.

Then I suppose I gotta dig into that thread and quote one of the one million posts where I explain why I like to explore multiple possibilities when I talk about things? Points which you did agree with?

"You could either be bad or you could be good."

Those are possibilities you like to explore and feel the need to post?



With what points did I agree?

After DDL flipped mafia, Epignosis decided to focus his attention solely on Black Rock and Missing Person. Epignosis pursues his original case on DDL that was related to MP. MP ultimately has flipped civilian, proving Epignosis wrong. However, I do not think Epignosis looks bad for this. After the correct read of DDL, a look down this avenue of thought makes sense.

Spoiler: show

I may vote for Missing Person.

Also, I'm announcing now that I will vote for Missing Person if there is no avatar by the time I leave for the airport tomorrow.

Is that even a good idea? If Missing Person doesn't put an avatar she's just going to get modkilled, right?

Where did you get that idea?

Addendum:

I didn't? It was just a guess. I've never played a game hosted by Elo so I don't know.

That's a pretty specific guess.

I guess? The point wasn't exactly about her getting modkilled or replaced, but about her getting dealt with by the host so we wouldn't have to worry about figuring out her alignment by ourselves.

Knowing that DDL was Mafia, I am going to again raise the question I implied here: What gave DDL the notion that Missing Person was going to get modkilled if no avatar was put in place? Perhaps it was stated in the initial team PM. I know the host likes to chat in chat, so maybe the issue was raised there.

If she puts an avatar or gets replaced, we'll then be able to ask questions about her avatar. Problem solved.

I'm more suspicious of people who try to direct the game's attention into lynching inactives.

And voting for her until she puts up an avatar is a good way to incentivize the behavior I want. Lynching inactives is also a good way to have fewer inactives in this, and future games, which I like. If you think that makes me bad, vote for me, but don't pretend it is based on any kind of logic.

Well my goal here is to find mafia, not to fight inactivity, so I gotta disagree.

Keep in mind, that this conversation was about Missing Person, and DDL claims his goal was to find Mafia, and that he finds those who want to lynch an inactive is suspicious. Neither is the case, we know that now. Yet he voted for Missing Person Day 1 anyway. Why?

DDL asked Missing Person about Roxy and fingersplints and then...that's kind of it. DDL said he was keeping an eye on those interested in lynching inactive people. Why say that if you're Mafia, and then vote for someone who had been at one point and now is inactive?

I'm leaning on voting MP right now. Not much because of the avatar thing, but I didn't like the way he compared Roxy and splints, or the way he set a lynch between splints and llama. The whole thing felt forced to me.

Splints is somewhat suspicious for that matter, but my main reason for suspecting her was kind of shitty so I'm giving her a pass. Still not sure what to think of her sudden defense of MP.

The "pass" given to fingersplints is funny to me, because Missing Person's last post was:

I completely overslept and missed deadline.

Unless things change, I'm probably voting splints next phase.

Something to keep in mind.

I'll be voting Black Rock or Missing Person, methinks.

Epignosis offers a defence of Spacedaisy here the day she is lynched. I did witness the amazing game Daisy played in Death Note and can attribute that this was game was not quite on par with that one. Null read here for Epignosis.

Side note: Epignosis mentioned that DDL was lurking at this moment. The list of players online around that time (based on post times) includes: thellama73, Golden, nijuukyugou, Epignosis, and Black Rock.

Spoiler: show

@epi - what do you think bad daisy would have done in that situation? I don't follow your train of thought here at all.

In what situation? Day 1 or Day 2?

Day 2.

Any vote she made at the time she made it was going to look bad. And, unless she had voted DDL Day 1, that was probably true then too.

From my experience in Death Note, bad spacedaisy is more fiery. Day 2, she didn't show up at all until the very end and voted you instead. I don't know what bad spacedaisy would do in that situation, but is what she did it? I don't think it is. If she is bad, then I don't think she talked strategy with her team. Or perhaps there's no one but DDL to talk to. I see him lurking.

To be fair, I applied this litmus test to Black Rock. What would Black Rock gain from trying to save DDL Day 1 and then miss the vote Day 2? That doesn't seem like her. I've never been on a team with spacedaisy, but I've been on one with her. Black Rock is a team player. So huh.

That leaves me with Missing Person. But I'm open to other ideas before I leave to thump on the bass like our dearly departed Chris Squire.

Epignosis defends Roxy, mainly because of an assessment Roxy made of Epignosis. I feel good about this statement from him.

Spoiler: show

You do?

I don't.

Why not?

It's funny to me that you want reasons after you voted. Next time, maybe you'll discuss things before you vote, yeah?

But since you asked me a question:

I appreciated her assessment of me. An evil Roxy would try to crucify me if she thought I was wrong on something. And even though we disagree philosophically about low/non-posters, she's been (irritatingly) consistent on her stance.

So even if Missing Person is bad, I don't think Roxy is bad.

Epignosis looks good to me this game. A lot of good baddie-hunting and nothing that stands out not in his favor. I know Black Rock has accused him of closed-mindedness, but that's hardly indicative of a baddie, nor is it even outside of his realm of behaviour. See Death Note with regards to FZ.

[Marmot]

Skipping Golden for now because I'm getting tired. Here comes Hedgeowl. 9 posts!

Apologizes for not being around for the Day 1 lynch. Nothing else to see here really.

Spoiler: show

Big voting fail! So sorry, but blanked on 24 hours and had guests too late by the time I realized my error.

Sorry to see you go TH, since I didn't get to play with you at all really.

Misses another vote. Day 1 all over again.

Spoiler: show

I see I am not the only vote loser. Sorry, this weekend got way too busy and my little guy has decided bedtimes are for babies, so my evening mafia time has been usurped.

Back in the saddle this week though. congrats on the lynch to everyone who took him down!

Day 3 vote fail. I don't think she has figured out the vote deadline yet.

Spoiler: show

Vote fail again...Sorry this voting while I make dinner clearly isn't working for me. I will try voting earlier, but it's always hard to do in 24 hr games when so much happens right at the lynch. Catching up and voting in Bullets now, but will do reading tonight. Sorry to be the invisible person this game.

Linki hey good job everyone!

Day 4, same thing. That's four posts in a row of no contribution and apologizing for missing the deadline.

Spoiler: show

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

I am basically a mafia fail right now. We are leaving for 10 days tomorrow to Wisconsin and I have been working like crazy to get us all ready. Plus have an all day workshop today and tomorrow. I apologize to everyone and Elo for my total not cutting it this game. I dont think its going to get any better on vacation since we will be with a lot of family all week long.

But this next post is good. I think Hedgeowl hit the nail on the head with llama. The lynch of Missing Person was a failure; if we learned something please someone point it out. I will look at it later if I get a chance. Anyway, after lynching an inactive for a slightly good reason, why go after a non-voter for no good reason? I have not seen anyone offer a good reason to lynch Hedgeowl, and I know llama wants to lynch her the most. So I think Hedgeowl is right in her reaction, though it does not excuse her four days of sub-par play. We need to hear more from her.

Spoiler: show

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

Oh yes use the strategy that worked so well for you in the last 2 low poster lynches.

Gambler's fallacy.

Oh please, I havent even read the thread from last lynch and I can tell you're bad. You're going for the low hanging fruit apparently, conveniently using the Hedgebaddie nickname once again, but actually targeting me as if that makes it some how legitimate and your vote for BR last lynch was so slim shady Eminem was embarrassed for you. Just looking at the poll, you can take no credit for lynching daisy and tied up BR when daisy had two votes.

Addendum: We would love to hear more from Hedgeowl. If I were forced to choose, I would list her as a civilian read.

[Marmot]

I'm off to bed. I will continue tomorrow. Hopefully this can kickstart some discussion.

[Black Rock]

I am most interested to see what your assessment of Llama is.

[Epignosis]

I am most interested to see what your assessment of Llama is.

This.

[Golden]

I'm also interested in MM's view of llama.

I think they are bad together.

I'm voting MM.

[thellama73]

The mafia killed Roxy? Boring. Predictable.

Come on, guys, are you even trying?

[Black Rock]

I'm also interested in MM's view of llama.

I think they are bad together.

I'm voting MM.

Why not Llama? He is the more obvious choice. You keep mentioning him but avoid voting him. I find that most curious.

[thellama73]

I'm also interested in MM's view of llama.

I think they are bad together.

I'm voting MM.

Why not Llama? He is the more obvious choice. You keep mentioning him but avoid voting him. I find that most curious.

Maybe because he is mafia and I am more convenient to keep around since people already want to kill me. I believe I called it.

First and foremost, let's talk about Golden. Our opinions of him seem to be polar opposites. Can you elaborate on why you think he is probably mafia even after his confrontation of Dragon yesterday?

I learned in Biblical Mafia that I do a lot better looking at the vote record than at what people say. I think Golden's Day 1 vote looks bad. He put the third vote on Missing Person when Dragon had three votes. Granted, TH had four at that time, but I still think it looks bad. His Day 2 vote for Dragon came late enough to be potential underbusthrowery. Then again, I'm one to talk, since I voted even later than him. I just don't feel good about him right now.

[Golden]

I'm also interested in MM's view of llama.

I think they are bad together.

I'm voting MM.

Why not Llama? He is the more obvious choice. You keep mentioning him but avoid voting him. I find that most curious.

He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that. There is no nefarious plot in my mind to save llama. I think he and MM are bad together.

Don't forget, BR, the case made in that other game that I was your teammate because I kept mentioning you every day but not voting you. I can't vote for all my suspects at once. I've suspected MM for longer and I also think he is doing a better job at sliding under the radar and not picking up heat. But it's not because I don't want to vote llama as well.

(I will admit, though, that after yet another of those posts from llama about how uninventive the kill was, I kinda wish I'd saved my vote for him instead.)

[thellama73]

Spacedaisy's comments about Golden are very interesting. When DDL was up for a lynch, she placed a protest vote on Golden. When she was up for a lynch, she suggested we look at Golden after her demise. This is some high-level distancing. Maybe the mafia are not as inept as I thought.

[Golden]

I'm voting MM because I've been suspicious of him for most of the game and think he is bad.

It is not a nefarious plot to 'keep llama alive' - either because I am his baddie teammate and want to save him or because I am bad and he is good and I want to 'save him for later'.

[thellama73]

He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that.

Why do you expect me to be lynched today? Only Black Rock, Hedgeowl,and you have expressed a wish to lynch me. You've wasted your vote early, Hedgeowl will miss the vote. That means I will take one vote and can save myself by piling onto your vote. Your story doesn't check out, Mafia Boy!

[Black Rock]

I'm voting MM because I've been suspicious of him for most of the game and think he is bad.

It is not a nefarious plot to 'keep llama alive' - either because I am his baddie teammate and want to save him or because I am bad and he is good and I want to 'save him for later'.

What do you think of this...

Spacedaisy's comments about Golden are very interesting. When DDL was up for a lynch, she placed a protest vote on Golden. When she was up for a lynch, she suggested we look at Golden after her demise. This is some high-level distancing. Maybe the mafia are not as inept as I thought.

Was Daisy distancing? Is Llama?

Llama is evil, that I am comfortable with. I haven't decided who is the last after that.

I am voting Llama.

[Black Rock]

He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that.

Why do you expect me to be lynched today? Only Black Rock, Hedgeowl,and you have expressed a wish to lynch me. You've wasted your vote early, Hedgeowl will miss the vote. That means I will take one vote and can save myself by piling onto your vote. Your story doesn't check out, Mafia Boy!

Is this why you killed Roxy?

[thellama73]

He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that.

Why do you expect me to be lynched today? Only Black Rock, Hedgeowl,and you have expressed a wish to lynch me. You've wasted your vote early, Hedgeowl will miss the vote. That means I will take one vote and can save myself by piling onto your vote. Your story doesn't check out, Mafia Boy!

Is this why you killed Roxy?

Objection, leading the witness.

I didn't kill Roxy, but it is convenient insofar as it keeps me alive. I couldn't have known Golden would throw his vote away early though.

[Black Rock]

He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that.

Why do you expect me to be lynched today? Only Black Rock, Hedgeowl,and you have expressed a wish to lynch me. You've wasted your vote early, Hedgeowl will miss the vote. That means I will take one vote and can save myself by piling onto your vote. Your story doesn't check out, Mafia Boy!

Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.

I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.

Before the night was over you did not have Golden on your list so you have gone from three people wanted you dead to three people wanting you dead?

He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that.

Why do you expect me to be lynched today? Only Black Rock, Hedgeowl,and you have expressed a wish to lynch me. You've wasted your vote early, Hedgeowl will miss the vote. That means I will take one vote and can save myself by piling onto your vote. Your story doesn't check out, Mafia Boy!

Is this why you killed Roxy?

Objection, leading the witness.

I didn't kill Roxy, but it is convenient insofar as it keeps me alive. I couldn't have known Golden would throw his vote away early though.

In this case, how would you know if he was going to throw away his vote or vote you. Curious.

[Golden]

And I'll just say that I didn't see llamas post before responding to BR.

Llama, I'm really not sure how to respond to what you are saying. Yes, you did make that point against me. I asked you to read back. You did and said it somewhat lessened your suspicion of me. The reason you felt better about me is because I spent half of day one saying I would vote for MP if he didn't put an avatar up and that is exactly what I did.

There was no way for me to make that vote look good - nowhere I could have placed it except on DDL who I didn't really have any suspicion of at that time. The only thing I could have done to avoid it looking bad is to have voted earlier - which I could not have done AND been fair in waiting for MP to post an avatar. I want you to tell me what you think a GOOD vote would look like for me, lets say in the circumstance MP posted an avatar with ten minutes to go? Do you really think there is such a thing?

As for the daisy stuff - what can I say? I thought Daisy's vote for me was completely out of left field, it came as a shock to me, but it turned out she had called me her 'second biggest suspect' right back at the start, something I hadn't even noticed. Her suspicion of me clearly wasn't genuine (it never felt genuine to me) and I thought and still do think it points to her being teammates with MM. Any suspicion can look like distancing if you squint hard enough.

But - you watched me play and distance from people in economics. I never defended them, and I got on the bus as soon as I could. I didn't want to leave threads for people to tug on. Can you honestly say my game here looks like that? I spent the whole first day more or less defending DDL (he reminded me of econ DDL), only to cast a vote that potentially could have helped outright save him. I then would have had to bus him late, and then I voted off Daisy when she was going down...

I'm not the droid you are looking for. If you are actually not bad, read back again, and think about it.

linki @llama - you are keeping much closer tabs on who you expect to vote for you than I am. I wasn't counting votes when I said I expect you to be lynched. But, I feel like I've been harping on about MM all game and no-one is listening, so my perspective is much more 'I don't expect people to listen and follow me in an MM vote'.

[thellama73]

In this case, how would you know if he was going to throw away his vote or vote you. Curious.

I wouldn't know that. I just said I wouldn't.

[thellama73]

And I'll just say that I didn't see llamas post before responding to BR.

Llama, I'm really not sure how to respond to what you are saying. Yes, you did make that point against me. I asked you to read back. You did and said it somewhat lessened your suspicion of me. The reason you felt better about me is because I spent half of day one saying I would vote for MP if he didn't put an avatar up and that is exactly what I did.

There was no way for me to make that vote look good - nowhere I could have placed it except on DDL who I didn't really have any suspicion of at that time. The only thing I could have done to avoid it looking bad is to have voted earlier - which I could not have done AND been fair in waiting for MP to post an avatar. I want you to tell me what you think a GOOD vote would look like for me, lets say in the circumstance MP posted an avatar with ten minutes to go? Do you really think there is such a thing?

As for the daisy stuff - what can I say? I thought Daisy's vote for me was completely out of left field, it came as a shock to me, but it turned out she had called me her 'second biggest suspect' right back at the start, something I hadn't even noticed. Her suspicion of me clearly wasn't genuine (it never felt genuine to me) and I thought and still do think it points to her being teammates with MM. Any suspicion can look like distancing if you squint hard enough.

But - you watched me play and distance from people in economics. I never defended them, and I got on the bus as soon as I could. I didn't want to leave threads for people to tug on. Can you honestly say my game here looks like that? I spent the whole first day more or less defending DDL (he reminded me of econ DDL), only to cast a vote that potentially could have helped outright save him. I then would have had to bus him late, and then I voted off Daisy when she was going down...

I'm not the droid you are looking for. If you are actually not bad, read back again, and think about it.

linki @llama - you are keeping much closer tabs on who you expect to vote for you than I am. I wasn't counting votes when I said I expect you to be lynched. But, I feel like I've been harping on about MM all game and no-one is listening, so my perspective is much more 'I don't expect people to listen and follow me in an MM vote'.

This is a great defense, and I acknowledge there's no good way for you to defend against the reasons I suspect you. Them's the breaks sometimes.

I may follow your MetalMarsh vote if other people listen to Black Rock and I have to save myself. If that happens, I guess we will see if you were right or not. Otherwise, I'm voting for you.

[Black Rock]

In this case, how would you know if he was going to throw away his vote or vote you. Curious.

I wouldn't know that. I just said I wouldn't.

In that context you make it seem like you expected him to vote for you... but he threw away his vote. Nothing you are saying is making me feel better about you.

[Golden]

Last post on the 'expecting you to get lynched' thing, because I need to step away...

I really hate it when people try to manipulate my words. MM already did it, now you are doing it too.

You make out like it's a 'story that doesn't check out' - I was never trying to say I had counted all the votes and I didn't vote for you because I had 100% confidence that you are going to be lynched.

I do feel like you have played up such an obvious baddie game that the thread as a whole was against you.

I also do think my biggest trigger in writing that was that it's getting frustrating that after believing MM is bad all game, a lot of other people just say they aren't seeing it. He was trying to manipulate my words - that is for me as bad as it gets. In this sense I think it's true that I DO prefer an MM lynch to a llama one, but I just don't see me achieving that. And that's what was really underlying that sentence, my own defeatism. (I'll be honest, I thought I'd have had the chance to ask a question by now and check out MM for myself, and it hasn't happened. I'm wondering if it's because hardly anyone is sending in PMs and I'm already disadvantaged by sending one in and not being able to vote for myself).

I also feel like what you are trying to do right now is make people think THIS is distancing and make BR think I'm bad after you die.

[thellama73]

I do feel like you have played up such an obvious baddie game that the thread as a whole was against you.

Do you think I tend to play obvious baddie games when I am actually a baddie?

[thellama73]

Meh, I decided that defensive voting is for cowards. If I get lynched, I want to go out in a blaze of glory, tilting ferociously at those lovely windmills.


I'm voting for Golden for three reasons.
1. The itiming of his Day 1 vote looked like an effort to protect DDL to me.
2. I believe Spacedaisy was engaging in high-level distancing when she attacked him. Her attacks came when either she or her teammate were in troble.
3. He expressed suspicion of me, but voted for MM anyway, early and a bit of a throwaway. I believe he did this because I am more suspected by the thread in general, and therefore more useful for a mafia member to keep around, and because it keeps his hands clean of my innocent blood should I actually get lynched.

Oh, and I almost forgot. A Golden lynch gives me Mafia Bingo.

[Golden]

I do feel like you have played up such an obvious baddie game that the thread as a whole was against you.

Do you think I tend to play obvious baddie games when I am actually a baddie?

I don't know your tendencies when you are mafia. But to be fair, especially in a small game like this, I don't think the 'obvious baddie' card is a bad one to play.

I don't know that your 'obvious baddie' game is your style when bad, but your stuff like your posts after the NKs 'what a boring kill' etc... whether or not you are good or bad that is the kind of stuff I mean by 'obvious baddie' - you've chosen to go that way.

And *sigh* - I mean, I can't really defend the same thing over and over, but I'll ask you to do one single thing...

Show me how there is any chance that my vote for MP protects DDL.

TH wasn't playing
I guess there is a chance hedgeowl would show up, but she hadn't yet.
The only person who possibly was yet to vote and might have actually shown at that point was Missing Person, would he have voted himself?

And besides that, I literally voted so late in the day that it really wasn't leaving time for anyone to show up and vote.

Using that vote against me is like... I mean even before, I asked you specifically 'how could have I played that vote as good' and you basically conceded that point.

So how can you still use that vote as a legitimate reason to vote me? I don't understand?!

[Golden]

3. He expressed suspicion of me, but voted for MM anyway, early and a bit of a throwaway.

I just have to address this again before it becomes any more true than when BR posed the question...

I have been expressing suspicion of MM for ages. He is my number one suspect. I've voted for him at least twice, maybe three times. I think the only time I didn't vote for him was the Missing Person lynch and it was as much because I'd given up on anyone else actually paying attention to what I was saying, and I legitimately thought the case on Missing Person was pretty good.

It's not throwaway. I've not been going around claiming I'm voting for llama, and then voting MM..

Some quotes, anyway, from this game so far:

I really think it's MM, but few others seem to see what I'm seeing.

It feels like still noone is talking about MM

Voting MM, because that's who I most think is bad.

And now my wife is calling me back, but there are heaps more. I ask anyone to go back and read my posts for yourselves.

[Marmot]

Hooray! People are talking; this is great news. By popular request, thellama73 is next up.



Llama interacts with DDL on Day 1, discussing whether or not we should lynch Missing Person for not having an avatar. Typical llama banter, but this idea proposed by llama, coupled with MP's lack of participation, may be the strongest driving force for what was to become MP's lynch on Day 4.

Spoiler: show

Also, I'm announcing now that I will vote for Missing Person if there is no avatar by the time I leave for the airport tomorrow.

Is that even a good idea? If Missing Person doesn't put an avatar she's just going to get modkilled, right?

It's an extremely good idea.

How so?

It's a good idea because a person without an avatar will be immune from detection by the methods the hostess has given us. And that's terrible.

According to llama, asking questions about avatars is the only way that we can discover who is bad, thread interactions and vote counts be damned. This also looks like a comment from a player who doesn't know how the civilian role power works. However, this observation was made on Day 1, so no player would have more knowledge than another as to how it worked.

Spoiler: show

I don't see much point. She is essentially not playing the game. If it stays like that, she is probably just getting replaced for being inactive, or modkilled. Sounds like a waste of a lynch.

She's not going to get modkilled, because Eloh doesn't do those things. She might get replaced, but that doesn't make her more likely to be good. It's only a waste of a lynch if she is not mafia. Right now, we can't find out whether she is mafia or not, because she has robbed us of our only way of doing so by not having an avatar. Seems like the best option to me.

Llama continues his Day 1 interactions with DDL. Good look for llama here. He points out the inaccuracy in DDL's comment, while still sticking to his own reads (if you call it that). The second half of the post doesn't really affect the read so much. Llama offers a more Syndicate-beneficial reason for lynching Missing Person.

Spoiler: show

I just think going after the inactives is a cheap way of making a vote. Because it's essentially a guess, and one that is more likely to get a townie lynched than otherwise. At least with active players it's possible to analyse their posts or something.

Baseless assertion, backed by zero evidence. Why is lynching an inactive more likely to get a townie than lynching an active player? Of course, lynching any player is more likely to get a townie than a baddie, because there are more townies than baddies, but the idea that an inactive is less likely to be bad than anyone else is simply untrue.

If she puts an avatar or gets replaced, we'll then be able to ask questions about her avatar. Problem solved.

I'm more suspicious of people who try to direct the game's attention into lynching inactives.

And voting for her until she puts up an avatar is a good way to incentivize the behavior I want. Lynching inactives is also a good way to have fewer inactives in this, and future games, which I like. If you think that makes me bad, vote for me, but don't pretend it is based on any kind of logic.

Llama says we have a 33% chance of lynching a baddie. Bad look for llama I think. He says there is a 4 / 12 chance that we lynch a baddie, when there are 12 civilians, not 12 total players.

Spoiler: show

Baseless assertion, backed by zero evidence. Why is lynching an inactive more likely to get a townie than lynching an active player? Of course, lynching any player is more likely to get a townie than a baddie, because there are more townies than baddies, but the idea that an inactive is less likely to be bad than anyone else is simply untrue

Do you have proof to back up your certainty?

I don't need to, since I am not the one making a positive claim and that's not how burden of proof works, and it's also no longer relevant since Dragon explained what he meant, but sure, I'll play.

There 16 players in this speed game. 12 players are civilians and 4 players are Mafia.

The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3. Regarding the second part of my sentence, if if Missing Person had not yet checked in at the time, and her role was assigned randomly, then her odds of being bad are no better or worse than anyone else's. We would not expect any behavior to tip her hand, because a) there was no behavior to observe and b) she herself would not know her role yet (having not checked in.)

QED

Llama explains that there are still several players to check in. Quite the turnaround considering he was endorsing lynching inactives just a few hours before. 35 minutes later, llama turns around and says he's going to vote for Turnip Head, the only player who had not checked in yet (after being doubly corrected by G-Man). Very bad look for llama.

Spoiler: show

Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

Here, llama responds to Ricochet's massive case with this two-liner. In llama's defense, he was out of town for Fourth of July, so may not have been able to make a proper response. Still, Ricochet was killed Night 1, saving llama from having to give a proper address to the case.

Spoiler: show

Great points by Ricochet. I like the way he is playing. The reason I ultimate didn't vote for MP (who I still think is a girl) is that his posts read extremely cig to me once he actually showed up. Too bad about TH though.

Llama votes for DDL Day 2. Not much to say about his vote, as it put DDL up 5-1 over Black Rock.

Spoiler: show

Dragon is a smooth criminal. Down he goes.

Llama comes back from his vacation, says he's all caught up, and only addresses Spacedaisy (a "Maybe mafia") in his new rainbow list. No mention of the three "Probably Mafia" that he listed in this post, nor before this post, aside from Golden.

Also noteworthy, Missing Person has made his way into llama's "Probably Not Mafia" list.

Spoiler: show

Hi all! Back from a holiday weekend and all caught up. Very happy Dragon is dead. He was, as I believe I said,a smooth criminal.

Here's my technicolor list of player evaluations. Spacedaisy is where she is because her vote for Golden would be madness for a Dragon teammate. I think Golden's Day 1 vote looks exceptionally bad in hindsight.


Probably Mafia
Black Rock
Golden
Hedgeowl
Maybe Mafia
spacedaisy
timmer
MetalMarsh89
Epignosis
Probably Not Mafia
fingersplints
Missing Person
nijuukyugou
Roxy
G-Man
thellama73

Llama's first mention of Black Rock. Considering BR is his number 1 mafia read, this post isn't very convincing.

Spoiler: show

What do we make of Dragon's vote for Black Rock? Would it be clever of him to vote for a teammate with his dying breath to throw us off the scent? Or does that vote make her look better? I'm incluned to distrust it.

Llama calls out the mafia for being absent and unthoughtful. The absentness seems to match up with his Rainbow List. Convenient. Llama offers some thoughts on Black Rock and comments on Spacedaisy, indifferently. Llama also chose to comment on myself and Golden. He says he did a reread of both of us, but said little more than he doesn't suspect either of us. Considering the length of this post, there is not much going on. Llama is clearly pushing a lynch in the direction of Black Rock here.

Spoiler: show

The G-Man kill has given me a lot to think about. I think we are dealing with a mostly absent, panicky mafia getting rid of someone who was on their trail. The Ricochet kill was smart, but after the loss of DDL, the G-Man kill was artless. I agree with Epi that the team was MIA on Day 2. Epi, for example, would never have allowed such a kill if he were mafia.

Spacedaisy defended DDL and pushed a Golden lynch.
Hedgeowl has a total of three, mostly off-topic posts, and would likely throw down a reflex NK.

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

Why would that piss everyone off?

People hate when I vote for non-participants or people who "have not had the chance to defend themselves."

Turnip Head has been absent in several games though, so I think this is a different situation.

I agree and am also going to vote for Turnip Head.

What is BR agreeing with here? That she wants to piss people off? That people hate it when I vote for non-participants? Her vote is poorly explained. She goes on:

Bummer. That was some really solid play you were making here, Ricochet. Hope I play again with you some time.

I'm reading through day 1 posts and BR's ones caught my attention. It feels to me her vote on TH was pretty oportunistic. She only agreed with what splints said then jumped on the wagon later in the phase, after waiting for two players to do it first. And did not say much more. I'm leaning mafia on her.

TBH it was opportunistic and a little frustration with TH atm. It was day 1 none of you really look that suspicious and so I voted for a non-player. He is a non-player and I don't think he would have ever showed up. I actually wasn't waiting for more people to do it. I didn't have to wait for other players to do it at all, I was already taking an easy way out.

Interesting little exchange with Dragon. She defended him earlier, saying "why are you focusing on Dragon?" I think BR looks bad.

Now, MM< because I promised:
He also gently pushed a Golden lynch, but other than that, he reads pretty genuine to me. I also feel better about Golden after rereading him, but am not ready to completely absolve him yet.

Again, llama fits the nightkill of G-man into his own definition of baddieness. Llama says the baddies are scared and disorganized. Epignosis offered a more accurate observation I believe. Epignosis said it made sense for the mafia to kill an analytical player. Ricochet Night 1, G-Man Night 2. The trend is short, but clear. Another trend I've noticed, both players to be nightkilled to this point both had gone after llama the night they were killed.

Spoiler: show

Llama why do you think the kill of Gman was artless?

Because G-Man was one of the most active and productive players in terms of baddie hunting. It's always possible that the kill was a frame job, but I usually find thta such kills happen when the team is scared and simply trying to reduce the vote count against it.

"Mafia is running scared"? That's what he said after the logical nightkill of G-Man. Maybe I have my blinders on, but llama is looking worse and worse as this game goes on.

Spoiler: show

fingersplints has been put down by the mafia. It is now Day 4

My goodness what a boring choice. This mafia is running scared.

RIP Splints.

Llama finally makes a real mention of Hedgeowl. But this mention is hardly anything to sneeze at.

Also llama says that the baddies are not voting to save their members. Let's look at Black Rock's and Spacedaisy's votes. I'd look at Hedgeowl's too, llama's other top suspect, but she has not voted yet this game...

Anyway, Day 1, both Spacedaisy and Black Rock vote for Turnip Head to put him 4-3 over DDL. We don't know about Black Rock, but Spacedaisy, an obvious baddie, voted to save DDL.

Day 2, Spacedaisy voted for Golden and Black Rock missed the vote in a landslide DDL lynch. That's about as close to a save as could have happened.

Day 3, Black Rock voted Spacedaisy who flipped bad. Black Rock voted out of self-preservation, so one can't fault her for it, nor was there even a situation to go for a save. Spacedaisy missed the vote.

Day 4, Missing Person won in a landslide victory, so no save required. Anyway, Black Rock voted for llama.

Baddies are not voting to save their members? These are llama's top two suspects right?

Spoiler: show

I just got home from work, I can participate with you Llama.

Who are you looking at this lynch?

I'm really in a Hedgeowl sort of mood. I am super unimpressed with this mafia. They are not voting to save their members and their kills are lame. I think there is at least one inactive or barely active player among them.

Also, Hedgebaddie is always bad.

Llama says one of the people who wants him dead is likely mafia. This looks to me like another scenario to fit his Rainbow List that doesn't have any actual support to it.

Spoiler: show

Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.

I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.

Suddenly, llama wants to go after Golden again, even with BR and Hedgeowl still alive. It is good that he is revisiting a previous read. Brownie point for llama.

Spoiler: show

Spacedaisy's comments about Golden are very interesting. When DDL was up for a lynch, she placed a protest vote on Golden. When she was up for a lynch, she suggested we look at Golden after her demise. This is some high-level distancing. Maybe the mafia are not as inept as I thought.

Llama goes after Golden with the most conviction he's had all game, even giving him an early vote. Well, llama's had conviction before, but he's hardly backed anything up with quotes and evidence before this.

Spoiler: show

Meh, I decided that defensive voting is for cowards. If I get lynched, I want to go out in a blaze of glory, tilting ferociously at those lovely windmills.


I'm voting for Golden for three reasons.
1. The itiming of his Day 1 vote looked like an effort to protect DDL to me.
2. I believe Spacedaisy was engaging in high-level distancing when she attacked him. Her attacks came when either she or her teammate were in troble.
3. He expressed suspicion of me, but voted for MM anyway, early and a bit of a throwaway. I believe he did this because I am more suspected by the thread in general, and therefore more useful for a mafia member to keep around, and because it keeps his hands clean of my innocent blood should I actually get lynched.

Oh, and I almost forgot. A Golden lynch gives me Mafia Bingo.

Addendum: I think llama looks bad. There's a large portion of his game that looks bad, and there is not enough good actions to counter that. Through my ISO's thus far, llama is definitely my strongest mafia read.

[Black Rock]

Meh, I decided that defensive voting is for cowards. If I get lynched, I want to go out in a blaze of glory, tilting ferociously at those lovely windmills.


I'm voting for Golden for three reasons.
1. The itiming of his Day 1 vote looked like an effort to protect DDL to me.
2. I believe Spacedaisy was engaging in high-level distancing when she attacked him. Her attacks came when either she or her teammate were in troble.
3. He expressed suspicion of me, but voted for MM anyway, early and a bit of a throwaway. I believe he did this because I am more suspected by the thread in general, and therefore more useful for a mafia member to keep around, and because it keeps his hands clean of my innocent blood should I actually get lynched.

Oh, and I almost forgot. A Golden lynch gives me Mafia Bingo.

With that pattern it looks like Blooper or Timmer could be the last baddie. One on each role.

Golden, I am not convinced that it is distancing or you are bad. I am quite convinced that Llama is the way to go today and was thrown off when you said him and MM were likely the last two baddies and voted MM so quickly.

[Black Rock]

Meh, I decided that defensive voting is for cowards. If I get lynched, I want to go out in a blaze of glory, tilting ferociously at those lovely windmills.


I'm voting for Golden for three reasons.
1. The itiming of his Day 1 vote looked like an effort to protect DDL to me.
2. I believe Spacedaisy was engaging in high-level distancing when she attacked him. Her attacks came when either she or her teammate were in troble.
3. He expressed suspicion of me, but voted for MM anyway, early and a bit of a throwaway. I believe he did this because I am more suspected by the thread in general, and therefore more useful for a mafia member to keep around, and because it keeps his hands clean of my innocent blood should I actually get lynched.

Oh, and I almost forgot. A Golden lynch gives me Mafia Bingo.

With that pattern it looks like Blooper or Timmer could be the last baddie. One on each row.

Golden, I am not convinced that it is distancing or you are bad. I am quite convinced that Llama is the way to go today and was thrown off when you said him and MM were likely the last two baddies and voted MM so quickly.

note the change

[Marmot]

BR, what do you think about Golden being mafia?

[Marmot]

Guess what nijuukyugou, it's your turn!

12 posts from nijuu thus far, so this one will not take very long.



Nijuu's first post of the game. I know she is known for quality over quantity when it comes to post content, and she has not disappointed this game. She comments early on the DDL case, siding against him. She also was one of the few players to cut TH some slack for a day at least. TH only received 4 votes, but nijuu was one of the only ones to vote differently, placing her vote on DDL instead. She did miss the vote Day 2, the day DDL was lynched though.

Spoiler: show

Okay. Thoughts on what's been discussed:

1) I don't have pings about people claiming to vote Missing Person if she doesn't put up a picture by the end of the Day. Honestly, I see their point - it seriously disadvantages the civs if she is mafia. But I also read it as a bit of a Day 1 joke, so I didn't take the threat as seriously as some.
2) Roxy/FS buddy-buddy - Didn't really see it as buddy-buddy, but as simple agreement with the not-voting-newbies sentiment. I don't agree with the sentiment at all times, but if that's your bag, that's your bag. I do think it's interesting that it was pointed out, however, that MP (it's weird calling her MP, since it makes me think of the other MP :P) is not a newbie, so the point, I suppose, is moot.
3) Dragon's pinging me the most out of anyone, mayhaps because of the confident-sounding "guess" that MPerson (god dangit, that looks too much like A Person) would be modkilled/replaced, and claiming that FS was being "defeatist" so soon. There's a vibe about him I don't like in his posts. Hi, Dragon! We haven't met
4) While I see the logic in voting TH for being absolutely inactive (hurts on both sides), I'd at least like to give the guy a day to sort himself out if necessary, even if he has been AWOL in recent games.

I think that's it.

nijuu calls me weird. Still, I suppose I'm used to that. But she did not pursue it, given the opportunity.

Spoiler: show

RIP TH and Rico As excited as I was for this game to start, I've nearly forgot I was playing it! Sorry y'all

I'm also getting more and more suspicious of MM's approach to me. He demanded I answer what I think is a very strange question, and in doing so continued to avoid answering mine - which is why did he misrepresent my post. When I quote people, I don't cut it off half sentence... I quote the whole sentence or paragraph for context and underline the relevant bit. That felt really snaky to me.

Also, elo, is talking about the name we might PM in allowed or not?

I agree with this - MM's behavior is weird in this regard, even for a newt.

Nijuu posts after she missed the Day 2 vote in the lynch of DDL. I would expect she would have voted for DDL based on her Day 1 observations.

Spoiler: show

Oh fuckity fuckballs, I missed the vote! (I literally just said this out loud. I haven't missed a vote in ages ) I apologize to my fellow players and the almighty hostess for my behavior. I haven't even had a chance to read what I've missed (I've been moving furniture up three flights of stairs all weekend/blowing shit up for the Fourth) but I see Mr. Luffy has been caught. Most excellent. When I'm settled I'll catch up and check back in.

Nijuu calls me weird again. This time, she latches on to what Roxy said. I don't like this statement at all from nijuu. As I explained to Roxy, I never self-voted in this game. You can look at the vote records to prove it. Nijuu says she "suspects self-voters regardless of alignment". I don't know if she is trying to say she suspects me or not, but there is no reason to do so right now. Nijuu is either not paying attention, or I've misunderstood, or she is intentionally shrouding suspicion on me. Unless this is the second of these two, this post doesn't look good for nijuu.

Spoiler: show

Yay caught up! I suppose that's the advantage of such a quiet game.

Quick read back-

Metalmarsh ignored my question

Golden - I hear what you are saying but what you accuse Metalmarsh of you are doing to me over this I won't vote for new or returning players.

Dragon- I don't get you list it is a bit wonky imo. Like you posted it to just to post. Some of you reasoning you used to say people were leaning slightly town is the same reasoning you used to say someone was feeling mafia. It felt a lot like mud flinging.

Imma be busy today with a hike and picnic but should be back to post before deadline

Was this the question? Sorry, thought you were joking since I haven't self-voted in a while, though I guess I also haven't played with you in a while.

Self-voting as a strategy to draw out mafia only works so many times before people catch on.

Wat?

This a bizarre response MM. When and how did you ever find a baddie with a self vote day 1? I don't remember that ever happening.

I still feel weird about MM, and had the same thought as Roxy - I often suspect self-voters regardless of alignment, and I don't ever recall that strategy finding a baddie. Also, his interactions (and lack thereof) with Golden make me itchy.

What do we make of Dragon's vote for Black Rock? Would it be clever of him to vote for a teammate with his dying breath to throw us off the scent? Or does that vote make her look better? I'm incluned to distrust it.

Quite clever. I'm torn on this, but I'd almost like to see it used as a strategy - I get tired of seeing the same old same old :P The points brought up about BR and her shady TH vote make me look in her direction for baddiness.

That's all I can think of for now. Sorry for my horrible lack of participation; I should be better now for at least a couple of days

Here, nijuu follows timmer's reasons that Missing Person could be a baddie, and later acknowledges Epignosis's case. My gut feeling here is that nijuu and timmer are baddie partners, and nijuu followed his read of Missing Person because of this, but I could be reading to far into it. Personally, I say bad look for nijuu, but you be the judge.

Spoiler: show

That was easy. I like this:

Reading back further, the case that was brought out about DDL specifically mentioning that there would be a potential modkill of MP just adds to that. And Daisy suggested that MP should be given at least a day to get settled in, as well, so both of our baddies didn't seem to like the idea of people voting for MP. This may be enough for me to vote him today.

as well as the other supporting points about MP (basically I'm seeing the same thing being said regarding defense of inactives and MP being inactive, etc.). I'll go ahead and vote that way, too.

Epi's post is adequate. It'll do.

Addendum: Nijuu appears the opposite as Black Rock to me. BR looked bad at the beginning, but better as the game went on. Nijuu on the other hand had a great Day 1, but has looked worse as the game goes on. I'd put her behind llama on my baddie list.

[Black Rock]

BR, what do you think about Golden being mafia?

I'm not sure yet, it could be they are trying to frame him with this obvious distancing technique. Could be they are just bad at being subtle.

[thellama73]

You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

[Black Rock]

You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

You are so bad.

[thellama73]

You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

You are so bad.

I really pleased that people are still unable to read me after all this time.

[Epignosis]

I go to sleep and three people vote.

Ricochet suspected thellama73. Ricochet died.
G-Man listed thellama73 as a "maybe Mafia." G-Man died.
fingersplints named thellama73 as her biggest suspect. fingersplints died.
Roxy wanted to lynch thellama73. Roxy died.

I could see llama executing these four and then mocking the kills; the (secretly) self-depreciating humor would amuse him.

His first two votes were inconsequential, but the Day 3 vote tied it up between Black Rock and spacedaisy. After spacedaisy got lynched, llama reiterated his suspicion of Black Rock, and doesn't mention her again until here. In the meantime, he suddenly became convinced to vote for Missing Person.

I have other things rolling around upstairs, but they will have to wait until I get back.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go buy beer and dirt.

[Black Rock]

You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

You are so bad.

I really pleased that people are still unable to read me after all this time.

If you flip civ I might kick you.

[Marmot]

And now for Mr. timmer man, the dude with the sexiest avatar in this game. After my tin-foil hat theory in my ISO of nijuu, I'll try to keep this open-minded.



Timmer starts the game being rather noncommittal and diplomatic. But I won't fault him for such behaviors on Day 1.

Spoiler: show

While I don't really like that Roxy and splints said they wouldn't vote MP due to a missing avatar (this game DOES revolve around having one, naturally) I would NOT say that splints' posts have been defeatist. Veteran players sometimes just know where they stand, and are happy to put it out there and make people vote them for it. Like, if splints is civ, and meant what she said, there is nothing for her to do or say at this moment than just hope for the best. Veteran players know that sometimes you get lynched on Day 1 for stupid things and tend not to take it personally.

It's not technically throwing in the towel, it's just being comfortable with what you've said and accepting that sometimes you get the heave ho early in a game and that's how mafia works.

I'm more interested in the people trying actively to stir shit up.

Timmer goes after DDL on Day 1, but was corrected and backed off. This reads as sincere to me, but I could be wrong. Timmer was trying to connect MP to DDL, and later helped get Missing Person lynched. This would be a hard thing for a teammate of DDL today, and easier to see coming from a civilian.

Spoiler: show

If she puts an avatar or gets replaced, we'll then be able to ask questions about her avatar. Problem solved.

I'm more suspicious of people who try to direct the game's attention into lynching inactives.

Hey Dragon, to get serious for a second here, you ARE aware that you made this post before Missing Person had posted, right? So technically, you were trying to direct the game's attention... into lynching an inactive.

No, I was trying to direct the game's attention into suspecting someone who was suspecting the inactive (llama).

Technically you could say I was helping make more people pay attention to MP, but that was the side effect, not the goal.

Yes, you're right, I actually misread the gist of your post, there.

Bad look for timmer here. I don't understand how one can suspect another player for voting to lynch an inactive, and go on to random-vote. It's even more suspicious because the player he voted ended up being a baddie. Maybe I am incorrect and timmer did try to set up the DDL-MP connection early on with nefarious reasons?

Spoiler: show

This is the first 24 hour day game I've played in forever, I just realized the deadline is coming. I have no idea who to vote for. I don't get any bad vibes from Roxy, splints, Dragon, MP, Epig or llama. I'm going to vote for space daisy as she didn't really contribute and it's as good as a pure random for the moment.

Timmer votes for Spacedaisy Day 3 after missing the Day 2 lynch. Let it be known that to this point, timmer has only voiced suspicion (one of them a misunderstanding) of DDL and Spacedaisy, both baddies. Either he has been spot on with his reads, or he knows things others don't. But in a game where information comes to civilians, I can't rule out the latter of these options still potentially making him civilian. Still, I don't think this is a good look for him.

Spoiler: show

I'm finally able to get back into this game, I'm so sorry for my absence.

I just read back and caught up completely. I see the points on BR but for me, SpaceDaisy is where its at. Her Day 1 vote was weak and directly saved DDL's bacon. Her Day 2 vote was a throwaway and her comments on DDL at the time read like a teamie trying to "say something".

Timmer is ambivalent about myself and Golden. Another noncommittal post.

Spoiler: show

I've just reread the Golden/MM posts, and I'm quite ambivalent about them both. Golden is right that MM snipped his post, but MM also seems right that there were logical reasons to do so (he only wanted to comment on one part of the post). I've done this myself though I usually put a (post snipped) type of comment on it.

MM is also right that it's odd that Daisy seemed to refer to MM halfway through a post about Golden in a way that suggested a prior conversation, but I don't necessarily agree that that makes Golden look bad. Anyone could have talked to Daisy in BTSC about Golden and MM. In short, I'm not likely to vote either of them today.

Timmer revisits the early connection he pointed out between Missing Person and DDL. Missing Person went on to be lynched, but this is the only other player timmer has looked at throughout this game. After the successful lynch of DDL, I don't blame him for revisiting though. It does make sense, so this is a slightly good look for timmer.

Spoiler: show

Reading back further, the case that was brought out about DDL specifically mentioning that there would be a potential modkill of MP just adds to that. And Daisy suggested that MP should be given at least a day to get settled in, as well, so both of our baddies didn't seem to like the idea of people voting for MP. This may be enough for me to vote him today.

@llama, I'll read back thru Hedge, is there something in particular I should look for?

Addendum: So the list of players timmer has suspected through this game includes just DDL, Spacedaisy, and Missing Person. All three are now dead, so I would love to hear more from timmer. I give him a neutral read right now.

Linki: Will read momentarily.

[thellama73]

You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

You are so bad.

I really pleased that people are still unable to read me after all this time.

If you flip civ I might kick you.

Start lacing up your big girl boots.

[Marmot]

I go to sleep and three people vote.

Ricochet suspected thellama73. Ricochet died.
G-Man listed thellama73 as a "maybe Mafia." G-Man died.
fingersplints named thellama73 as her biggest suspect. fingersplints died.
Roxy wanted to lynch thellama73. Roxy died.

I could see llama executing these four and then mocking the kills; the (secretly) self-depreciating humor would amuse him.

His first two votes were inconsequential, but the Day 3 vote tied it up between Black Rock and spacedaisy. After spacedaisy got lynched, llama reiterated his suspicion of Black Rock, and doesn't mention her again until here. In the meantime, he suddenly became convinced to vote for Missing Person.

I have other things rolling around upstairs, but they will have to wait until I get back.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go buy beer and dirt.

One thing I forgot to mention. Ricochet was nightkilled Night 1. Llama and Ricochet have had a grudge against each other since the day Ricochet joined the Syndicate.

I noticed this trend and agree with your assessment. The first night periods, llama interacted with G-Man and Ricochet, calling them both civilian, and they each were nightkilled hours later. The fingersplints kill was a change from the norm, but as you say, she called llama her biggest suspect and continuing the trend would make things all the more obvious.

And you're buying dirt? Are you going to play {url=http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... f=30&t=565]Dirt Mafia[/url]?

Linki: Llama, are you mafia?

[Marmot]

EBWOP: Well that was quite the /url fail.

[thellama73]

Linki: Llama, are you mafia?

I'm actually not, believe it or not. But Golden is.

[thellama73]

MM< you're right about how Rico and I usually go after each other.Oddly, this is the first game I played with him where I really did think he was civilian. It's certainly possible that a mafia Llama might kill off all my enemies, but I'd like to think I have a reputation as a more subtle player than that.

[Marmot]

Linki: Llama, are you mafia?

I'm actually not, believe it or not. But Golden is.

I won't deny that I think he is.

I don't believe you. You now have Golden, myself, and Epignosis who have posted cases against you today, and you have not acknowledged any of them. Instead, you are waiting for one-liners to respond to. There are 6 players (if my math is correct) that want you dead today, so I believe you are a baddie, and helping to protect your last baddie mate.

But, You and Golden are suddenly going after each other today too. You haven't mentioned Golden since early on, and I don't think Golden had a read on you either way before today. I see this as hardcore distancing. Golden even said he wishes he had moved his vote. I doubt it's true. Why would he have voted so early for me if he was really that suspicious of you?

[Black Rock]

You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

You are so bad.

I really pleased that people are still unable to read me after all this time.

If you flip civ I might kick you.

Start lacing up your big girl boots.

My big girl boots have no laces. I am quite comfortable with my vote.

[thellama73]

Linki: Llama, are you mafia?

I'm actually not, believe it or not. But Golden is.

I won't deny that I think he is.

I don't believe you. You now have Golden, myself, and Epignosis who have posted cases against you today, and you have not acknowledged any of them. Instead, you are waiting for one-liners to respond to. There are 6 players (if my math is correct) that want you dead today, so I believe you are a baddie, and helping to protect your last baddie mate.

But, You and Golden are suddenly going after each other today too. You haven't mentioned Golden since early on, and I don't think Golden had a read on you either way before today. I see this as hardcore distancing. Golden even said he wishes he had moved his vote. I doubt it's true. Why would he have voted so early for me if he was really that suspicious of you?

I acknowledged your cases. Epi's is based on my enemies slowly dying off, saying that I would think it was funny. Maybe I would. But those deaths are equally consistent with a mafia that is boringly and obviously setting me up. I am mocking their kills because I think they are bad kill choices, and because it amuses me to taunt the mafia.

Your case is mainly based on me changing my opinions of people, which in a short game like this with not a lot of vote history, is a perfectly natural thing to do. Black Rock seems to really believe I am mafia, which she wouldnt if she were mafia herself. Hedgeowl came across similarly, although I'm still not sure about her. I suspect Golden early on, then pursued other avenues, but now his actions plus the process of elimination have brought him back to the top of my list.

For Black Rock, lynching me is win-win, because even if I flip civ, the incentive for the mafia to keep killing my enemies at night is gone. Her head is probably next on the chopping block.

Just trust me, you guys. Lynch Golden. I'm not distancing. I'm hunting.

[Marmot]

I've got a plane to catch, but I'll be back on in a couple hours.

[Ricochet]

Dear Living Players,



Until next game,

Vander

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Ooooooh popcorn!

<eats some>

[Epignosis]

Back. Beer and dirt acquired.

More things I've noticed:

Probably Not Mafia
fingersplints
Missing Person
nijuukyugou
Roxy
G-Man
thellama73

This was after DDL got lynched, which nijuu happened to miss. Notice something funny about that list? Here:

Probably Not Mafia
fingersplints
Missing Person
nijuukyugou
Roxy
G-Man
thellama73

I searched llama's posts using "nijuu," "ninja," and "blooper," and the only mention or interaction whatsoever is this:

Catching up. Stand by.

You're the best, Blooper.

That's it.

thellama73 has no qualms voting off low-participators. He voted for Turnip Head. He voted for Missing Person. He wanted to lynch Hedgeowl. Yet no mention of nijuukyugou, who has 12 posts and one missing vote, and is the only living person in his green span (haha, that's an economics joke).