Watchmen [ENDGAME]

#2451

Ok, DDL.

So does this mean Rico is silenced? That seems super bizarre to me if it's true.

My thoughts right now: DDL has a really bad voting record, but has posted well, minus what I thought was some minor weirdness last night. Made is basically a huge question mark. I felt ok about Bass, but that was ages ago, and Made unfortunately joined at a point where he couldn't really contribute much. If Rico is bad he's played one of the best games I've seen, and I may just have to resign myself to losing if he is. Super duper paranoid me thinks maybe he should get a vote just because he does look the best, but it's not something I'm seriously considering right now.

#2452

Responces in pink because pink is a great color.

Russtifinko wrote:Ok, DDL.

So does this mean Rico is silenced? That seems super bizarre to me if it's true.

My thoughts right now: DDL has a really bad voting record, but has posted well, minus what I thought was some minor weirdness last night.
Here's the thing, vote record doesn't matter in a traditional sense anymore. If we're looking at voting records, the patterns we should be looking for is votes that blend, rather than risky votes for mafia that might potentially lead to being brought to the forefront of everyone's mind. The question we should be asking is In the context of a game, does a vote follow a predictable trajectory based on what was being discussed at the time the vote was placed?
Made is basically a huge question mark. I felt ok about Bass, but that was ages ago, and Made unfortunately joined at a point where he couldn't really contribute much.
honestly, you guys would be fucked if i were Moloch, luckily, i'm not so let's continue. If Rico is bad he's played one of the best games I've seen, and I may just have to resign myself to losing if he is. Super duper paranoid me thinks maybe he should get a vote just because he does look the best, but it's not something I'm seriously considering right now.
And with him very likely muted, It might make sense to take him off the table at this point--at least for a little while. It's a weird wifom, but would the muter mute someone he trust or distrust at this point in the game?

#2453

Hey guys, here's a good motto for today

Yeah, I know, wrong topic and the message is ironic, but you get my point.
Speaking of, Hitchhikers Mafia when!

So no death, hooray! I'm obviously pleased to still be alive. Maybe Moloch took up the challenge? Maybe he can only kill on even Nights? Maybe there was another kill bounce? (Wouldn't that be the third already, though...?)

I'm not silenced. What made you think that? Remember, deadlines for me are usually around 3am, sometimes even later. I stayed up for most of them, but once it also caused me to fall asleep and miss the vote. I was super tired yesterday and since it was Night, I just went to bed early. Today I have only one session of playing late afternoon, so I should be able to stay up afterwards.

I'm also glad nobody is silenced, I think it was the right call from Derf, if he's still alive. Or maybe he isn't, since he didn't silence anymore since Day 8. G-Man might have been him, although he might also have been Bernard - no message from him anymore, either. This isn't that relevant, though, since players can always opt to not send in their night actions; perhaps that's exactly what Derf did.

I'm thinking of attempting a kind of read, but for now, replying to some posts.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:What?

I don't like this. At all.

Guys,I remember a couple people got coded messages from Ozy in this game? Were any of you among them?

What don't you like? The no death? If so, how can you find that disagreeable?

I'll quote what I posted about my coded message throughout the game

Ricochet on Day 7 wrote:I received something last Night, I assume of the same kind Eloh, Scotty and G-Man got. My message looks coded as well, along with an equation that probably provides the cipher, but I think that's all I can say about it. Who are we suspecting for this? Manhattan, Ozy, Moloch? Good game, dude, you sure picked the right guy to do freaking math. What is this, anyway, Zodiac Mafia?

Ricochet on Day 8 wrote:The message I received (after N6) contains info about Moloch's general win con (the ??? part under his name?). Obviously I am not allowed to disclose it specifically, but it's slightly more subtle than the overall ones of civs and Inmates. Of course, this info could well be a fabrication, since we have no idea if the sender has genuine means to acquire such info and encrypt it in a message to someone else. I doubt Moloch would send stuff about himself and whilst the equation made me think it'd be from Manhattan, but I suppose this almost confirms it's from Ozymandias.

Ricochet on Day 9 wrote:linki: Well I did get a message that deciphered into what seemed Moloch's more explicit win con, but there's no way to know for sure if it's crap bait or genuine and I can't fully specify it in the thread either. Since he started killing, he probably is the activated LMS/SK.

If the info is genuine (though I still wonder), it's frustrating I can't fully share it, but I hope I've hinted at it in the second quote enough to get an idea. If it is genuine, from the looks of it, it doesn't affect the endgame i.e. Moloch still needs to win the lylo against us.

----

Made wrote:Responces in pink because pink is a great color.

Russtifinko wrote:Ok, DDL.

So does this mean Rico is silenced? That seems super bizarre to me if it's true.

My thoughts right now: DDL has a really bad voting record, but has posted well, minus what I thought was some minor weirdness last night.
Here's the thing, vote record doesn't matter in a traditional sense anymore. If we're looking at voting records, the patterns we should be looking for is votes that blend, rather than risky votes for mafia that might potentially lead to being brought to the forefront of everyone's mind. The question we should be asking is In the context of a game, does a vote follow a predictable trajectory based on what was being discussed at the time the vote was placed?

My view on it is this: except for tremendous hunting skills or downright poor play from the mafia, solo indies are blind as bats as to what alignment their lynch targets might be. They can hope to catch baddies, alongside civs (either for blending purposes or genuine civ-leaning effort/win requirement), but it can often lead to anything. This is also true of civs who don't have any alignment clues either and can have a very poor game of hunting - only the mafia players know themselves and try to manipulate lynches so to land on anyone except them. The thing that differentiates civs from indies with LMS is that the mislynch is a civ's loss, but an indy's gain. He basically benefits from every lynch there is. If he makes one mislynch after another, he only needs to deal with the pressure of not being regarded as mafia. For this matter, it still surprises me that DDL didn't get more heat from others, apart from me, Russ or MM - I guess it requires players like Llama to go full bark on mislynchers and rely on awful voting record as proof of baddieness.

To try and answer Made's question, I'm not sure if there is a predictable trajectory in DDL's votes, of the kind you mention, but for me the bottom line is: if DDL is Moloch, a lylo win today would crown his game masterfully; he played us all with his active hunting, he mislynched yet kept the heat off him more than enough, he got a Mafia at first but then he got rid of more civs than the Mafia itself did (plus his own kill, once he inherited it). He stayed in the eye of the storm the whole time.

Also, Russ, what minor weirdness did you spot from him yesterday?

---

Russtifinko wrote:If Rico is bad he's played one of the best games I've seen, and I may just have to resign myself to losing if he is. Super duper paranoid me thinks maybe he should get a vote just because he does look the best, but it's not something I'm seriously considering right now.

Not considering it would be wise, because I'm not bad. I'm the real deal; this is my civviest game. It's comparable to Guess Who, except I was night killed quickly there. It's what made me so doubtful the baddies will stand to keep me till the end here, as well. But I don't want to die by lynch, either; I would lose the game and so would the civs, because I am not Moloch. I have not manipulated any perspective and have not played at all with players' sense of paranoia. Don't resign to the idea of catching Moloch, however difficult it might be to pin him down.

Made wrote: And with him very likely muted, It might make sense to take him off the table at this point--at least for a little while. It's a weird wifom, but would the muter mute someone he trust or distrust at this point in the game?

The only muter left can be Derf (a civ), so his muting should normally be indicative of distrust. He hasn't done any move at all, though, because nobody has been silenced.

#2454

Ricochet wrote:What don't you like? The no death? If so, how can you find that disagreeable?

I'll quote what I posted about my coded message throughout the game

Epi's post implies Moloch did something, and I don't like what that might be.

Plus we are back to an even number of player, and I hate randomized endgames.

Then again, if we are lucky, Derf might win the game by silencing Moloch in the last phase. At least that's a civ win.

Thanks for talking about the messages. I was looking to see if I could figure out Ozy's role by knowing who got messages from him.

Anyway, going to college now. See you at night guys.

#2455

That's Moloch's role image from the front page. What implication of an action from Moloch did you get from it?

I don't get the part about randomized endgames. What are the scenarios, now that we are an even number? Doesn't lylo apply anymore? Derf silencing implies another night and Day.

Does the last part mean you can't return until Night 10 or what?

#2456

Rico, I had forgotten your plea to Derf not to silence anyone last night. And the weirdness I saw from DDL was his lament about possibly winning while hunting poorly. Not sure it's alignment indicative. It just seemed strange to say, to me

#2457

I didn't ask Derf that, DDL did. I just agree it's better that all four of us can chime in today.

#2458

Off to rehearsals, back in three hours.

#2459

Popping up to say that yes, I'll be back before the day phase is over. I was meaning to say "night" in real life.

No time for anything else, I have classes in a few minutes.

Cya later.

#2460

Wooo, laptop!

I'll be around the rest of the day.

Doing some rereads and will post thoughts/observations as I have them.

#2461

I'm here as well.

That's unfortunate, DDL, but good luck with the classes. Unless the Host would be willing to extend the Day, I'm not sure at the moment how to deal with this. If DDL really doesn't return, the votes will be down to the three of us.

I worked on this in the afternoon and finished it when I got back. It's the best idea of a re-read I have for this endgame, considering all the talk we're having about how one could be looking good, but instead be doing what a solo indy would do to survive till endgame. Everything about it is an interpretation of the player's read (how he could look genuine or blendy in what he did), the point being to figure out perhaps who looks the shadiest. The issues of defending mafia or even analyzing the nightkills choices until Night 8 seem to bear no relevancy, since Moloch was a dormant killer until then, unaware of the mafia team's identity and such, so I didn't include them.

#2462

Holy cow, Rico, that thing is thorough. Good work.

And Rico, it read to me like DDL definitely will be back before the Day ends, just possibly not very long before.

Reread Made. Unfortunately for me, Rico and DDL are two of the highest posters, so I'm slogging through that now.

#2463

I did misread that about DDL, huh.

#2464

I still don't get what he meant in the penultimate post about there being one more phase after this and the endgame being randomized. Is the latter a different mafia culture thing?

Ricochet wrote: Doesn't lylo apply anymore?

#2465

Yeah I don't completely understand that either.

Hey so reading back, you and DDL went after each other on Night 6, and DH did have him pegged as Moloch or possibly a Watchman. Has your opinion of DDL improved since then?

#2466

The thing around that time about Big Figure being desperate to get DDL lynched was weird as well. It seems like he was trying to imply a very important civ role, or a role BF would need dead that couldn't be NKed.

LoRab was saying she picked up on a hint from DDL. I didn't get it at the time. Do you guys have a better idea what that was all about?

#2467

Russtifinko wrote:Yeah I don't completely understand that either.

Hey so reading back, you and DDL went after each other on Night 6, and DH did have him pegged as Moloch or possibly a Watchman. Has your opinion of DDL improved since then?

Can't say it has. I still mostly believe he could fit the indy theory the way I put it in reply to Made (it's posted earlier, in my big post with which I opened D10). DH's possible peg also still weighs like, say, 5% to me, even though we can never know for sure until the game ends. He didn't say "Moloch or Watchmen" the first time and, if he really checked DDL's alignment, he wouldn't have been ambivalent about it if the result would have come back as Watchmen. As I've said, DH's wording was so peculiar, his Moloch peg not really resulting a whole lot from his summarization. This can be understood as a baseless claim, but to me, that's just it, why word it like "oh that guy sure joked a lot about lynching someone only to do it on the second and he also forgot to water my plants. He must be a serial killer" unless you're trying to do a smart plant.

Russtifinko wrote:The thing around that time about Big Figure being desperate to get DDL lynched was weird as well. It seems like he was trying to imply a very important civ role, or a role BF would need dead that couldn't be NKed.

LoRab was saying she picked up on a hint from DDL. I didn't get it at the time. Do you guys have a better idea what that was all about?

Nope. I had a spin on it, but then DDL said it's misconstruing and that he'd rather see the claim not be understood rather than taken the wrong way - which I have no problem acknowledging. If the keyword is "[Day] lynched", then I truly can't get the subtlety of it; it sounds so generic.

#2468

ayy two hours left

#2469

Ricochet wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Yeah I don't completely understand that either.

Hey so reading back, you and DDL went after each other on Night 6, and DH did have him pegged as Moloch or possibly a Watchman. Has your opinion of DDL improved since then?
Can't say it has. I still mostly believe he could fit the indy theory the way I put it in reply to Made (it's posted earlier, in my big post with which I opened D10). DH's possible peg also still weighs like, say, 5% to me, even though we can never know for sure until the game ends. He didn't say "Moloch or Watchmen" the first time and, if he really checked DDL's alignment, he wouldn't have been ambivalent about it if the result would have come back as Watchmen. As I've said, DH's wording was so peculiar, his Moloch peg not really resulting a whole lot from his summarization. This can be understood as a baseless claim, but to me, that's just it, why word it like "oh that guy sure joked a lot about lynching someone only to do it on the second and he also forgot to water my plants. He must be a serial killer" unless you're trying to do a smart plant.

Russtifinko wrote:The thing around that time about Big Figure being desperate to get DDL lynched was weird as well. It seems like he was trying to imply a very important civ role, or a role BF would need dead that couldn't be NKed.

LoRab was saying she picked up on a hint from DDL. I didn't get it at the time. Do you guys have a better idea what that was all about?
Nope. I had a spin on it, but then DDL said it's misconstruing and that he'd rather see the claim not be understood rather than taken the wrong way - which I have no problem acknowledging. If the keyword is "[Day] lynched", then I truly can't get the subtlety of it; it sounds so generic.

Yeah I agree; DH's wording sounds like something I would say if I were trying to hint without info dropping and had no case to back it up.

Thanks for the input on the role hint.

Still not sure how I feel about the idea that Moloch's behavior would change drastically after the baddies were eliminated; I've checked for that briefly and didn't see huge changes with Rico or Made. Haven't finished up the full reread of DDL.

While rereading, I think I just put something together about what you were saying earlier about your secret message, Rico. It's informative, but hopefully not germane to the discussion today. If it is idk what we could do about it.

#2470

Thanks for the heads up on 2 hours! The polls have been ending around 9, so I might possibly have missed it.

#2471

I'm back.

Catching up.

#2472

Rereading DDL from Cookie's death onward, his style didn't really change much. So again, not much to go on with that theory for me.

I did find these two posts, which I found kinda pingy:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Normally I'd say "sorry LoRab, this was a stupid mistake", but I feel like I'm starting to sound like a broken record.

I REALLY need a break from mafia.

This could be fear that saying sorry to too many civ lynches in a row would get suspicious. To Paranoid Russti it reads forced.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Seeing Ricochet defend himself against G-Man's post, I realize I should probably do the same.

G-Man wrote:Why Dragon Might Be The One To Lynch:

4- He's kept himself just suspicious enough to merit the Inmates keeping him around for a non-Inmate lynch. He benefited from his own misguided hunting because the Inmates never felt threatened by him.
4- This is wrong, even though I can't prove it. If I was seen by the inmates as not a threat, it's because my baddie hunting in this game was unsuccessful, and that wasn't intentional from my part. Besides, considering there were two nights where the baddies failed to kill for some reason, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had the intent to kill me in those nights and failed for some reason.

This is DDL's response to a case from G-Man that I didn't pay much attention to at the time. The post is edited for length, and to me the rest of the points don't add much in our current situation, but DDL's response to Point 4 interested me. He seems to imply that he can't be NKed, and that the baddies might have tried to NK him. I can only think of 3 roles that might have some type of NK protection that isn't used on a specific Night, and all 3 have secrets: Ozymandias, Manhattan, and Moloch. He also says "for some reason" twice, which fits the Llama Adverb(ial Clause) Theorem. It's goofy, but it did get us our first baddie in this game.

I'm leaning toward a DDL vote at the moment, but would like to hear from him before voting.

Linki: Hi DDL. Do you have anything to say about the the hints that you can't be NK'ed? And where at you at right now in terms of suspicions?

#2473

Ricochet wrote:That's Moloch's role image from the front page. What implication of an action from Moloch did you get from it?

I don't get the part about randomized endgames. What are the scenarios, now that we are an even number? Doesn't lylo apply anymore? Derf silencing implies another night and Day.

Does the last part mean you can't return until Night 10 or what?

Well may be just me, but the picture looks omonous. And usually where I come from tnd of phase write-ups tend to show images of a role who did something in the night, so I got the impression Moloch did something.

As for the lylo thing, think about this: we have 4 players left. We lynch one, he flips civ. Moloch kills someone. Now there are 2 players left. Assuming nobody is silenced, they vote for each other. The host has to flip a coin to decide the winner.

Ricochet wrote:I'm here as well.

That's unfortunate, DDL, but good luck with the classes. Unless the Host would be willing to extend the Day, I'm not sure at the moment how to deal with this. If DDL really doesn't return, the votes will be down to the three of us.

I worked on this in the afternoon and finished it when I got back. It's the best idea of a re-read I have for this endgame, considering all the talk we're having about how one could be looking good, but instead be doing what a solo indy would do to survive till endgame. Everything about it is an interpretation of the player's read (how he could look genuine or blendy in what he did), the point being to figure out perhaps who looks the shadiest. The issues of defending mafia or even analyzing the nightkills choices until Night 8 seem to bear no relevancy, since Moloch was a dormant killer until then, unaware of the mafia team's identity and such, so I didn't include them.

Great work. Not sure if I'll read everything since it only has 2/3 of the players I have to analyse, plus there is a lot of information for little time. But thanks either way.

#2474

I'm here, and have been reading everything( on and off for the last 2 hours ish).... As of now, I don't think i want to vote Rico.....I swear if he's Moloch, the kid earned the win....

#2475

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Seeing Ricochet defend himself against G-Man's post, I realize I should probably do the same.

G-Man wrote:Why Dragon Might Be The One To Lynch:

4- He's kept himself just suspicious enough to merit the Inmates keeping him around for a non-Inmate lynch. He benefited from his own misguided hunting because the Inmates never felt threatened by him.
4- This is wrong, even though I can't prove it. If I was seen by the inmates as not a threat, it's because my baddie hunting in this game was unsuccessful, and that wasn't intentional from my part. Besides, considering there were two nights where the baddies failed to kill for some reason, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had the intent to kill me in those nights and failed for some reason.

This is DDL's response to a case from G-Man that I didn't pay much attention to at the time. The post is edited for length, and to me the rest of the points don't add much in our current situation, but DDL's response to Point 4 interested me. He seems to imply that he can't be NKed, and that the baddies might have tried to NK him. I can only think of 3 roles that might have some type of NK protection that isn't used on a specific Night, and all 3 have secrets: Ozymandias, Manhattan, and Moloch. He also says "for some reason" twice, which fits the Llama Adverb(ial Clause) Theorem. It's goofy, but it did get us our first baddie in this game.

I'm leaning toward a DDL vote at the moment, but would like to hear from him before voting.[/quote]

I can't directly claim anything here. But one thing you can be absolutely sure is that I wouldn't claim Moloch. So whatever I hinted about my role, either it's with the intent of claiming something else. The possibility of Moloch having certain abilities doesn't weight much regarding my claim, but other characters you might think of do.

And of course, this is WIFOM, but if I were Moloch Im not sure I'd want to hint my real abilities in the thread. I'd want to keep it in the dark.

Finally, I made those claims about mafia being desperate to kill me, because I had a tinfoil theory that Ricochet was Big Figure because he was the only person who voted me after the first night the kill failed. Revealing my vote was only secondary, since I wouldn't be able to prove it anyway. But I had a suspicion I had to purse. Upon doing an ISO on Rico, I realized his suspicion of me was a lot less forced than I had initially assumed. Plus, since the following kill failed, and then Big Figure was revealed not to be Rico, the tinfoil proved to be wrong.

#2476

I was going to say "either it's with the intent of claiming something else, or a lie/gambit", but I accidentally deleted part of it. Also sorry for the broken quote.

#2477

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
As for the lylo thing, think about this: we have 4 players left. We lynch one, he flips civ. Moloch kills someone. Now there are 2 players left. Assuming nobody is silenced, they vote for each other. The host has to flip a coin to decide the winner.

I can't actually claim to know the intricacies (sp?) of lylo scenarios (I think I first heard and witnessed it on the Champions game Turnip played, I had to bother MP with questions about what it all means), but I believe that situation after a failed lylo is that civs will not manage to overcome/defeat the baddie in any way, so it counts as their loss. In this case, if 2 players end up, unsilenced, on D11, one being Moloch and one being the last civ, the civ can't overwhelm or defeat Moloch by simply way of vote, so he'd be considered the default loser.

But again, I'm not actually sure about it at all, I merely expected lylo rules to apply today. Your version sounds intriguing.

#2478

Hmmmmm now that is a claim I feel I'm finally starting to understand. Unfortunately I'm not sure it excludes Moloch from that picture, even if you say you would never claim him.

#2479

Russtifinko wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Normally I'd say "sorry LoRab, this was a stupid mistake", but I feel like I'm starting to sound like a broken record.

I REALLY need a break from mafia.
Not much I can say other than the fact it was legit. I've been feeling pretty ashamed for my consecutive failures in lynching.

And yes, I really need a break from mafia. After this game don't expect me to see here again for a few months.

This could be fear that saying sorry to too many civ lynches in a row would get suspicious. To Paranoid Russti it reads forced.

Russtifinko wrote:And where at you at right now in terms of suspicions?

I honestly don't suspect any of the three. Whoever of you is mafia played a very good game.

Of course I have to choose one, though.

I had some tinfoils and weird feelings about Rico all game, but overall I think he's playng a terrific civ game. Plus he had some tunneling and stubborn ways of playing that seemed natural, and that a mafia player might avoid making, such as his long tunneling on Elo, or the accusations he made over a bunch of random things I said. Questioning something as a baddie can be risky, because the person you're questioning might call you out for trying to manipulate what they said. And I've seen Rico doing a lot of playe that I could call Risky.

Don't really feel like voting Made. Both him and Bass had pretty clean civ games, specially Bass. If they win, it's a win we can't do anything about, imo. The feeling I have about him is good, although not very developed, and I haven't seen anything bad about him or Bass. I think a vote on him would be too blind unless we can find a good reason.

You are the one I'd vote for right now. I have a civ read on you, but the weakest of the three. Compared to Rico, I could see you as a player who has been careful through all game, trying to seem contributive but without taking big risks. You have mostly stayed out of people's radars for most of the game, save a few mild suspicions. Of course, a lot of that is probably related to your playstyle, even if you are a bad. But overall, I don't see many signs of a player who takes risks and plays the game to the fullest, and you give me a feeling of blending in sometimes. Yet, if I vote for you, it will still be a vote for someone who in my opinion looks more civ than otherwise.

This is difficult as fuck.

#2480

Ricochet wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
As for the lylo thing, think about this: we have 4 players left. We lynch one, he flips civ. Moloch kills someone. Now there are 2 players left. Assuming nobody is silenced, they vote for each other. The host has to flip a coin to decide the winner.
I can't actually claim to know the intricacies (sp?) of lylo scenarios (I think I first heard and witnessed it on the Champions game Turnip played, I had to bother MP with questions about what it all means), but I believe that situation after a failed lylo is that civs will not manage to overcome/defeat the baddie in any way, so it counts as their loss. In this case, if 2 players end up, unsilenced, on D11, one being Moloch and one being the last civ, the civ can't overwhelm or defeat Moloch by simply way of vote, so he'd be considered the default loser.

But again, I'm not actually sure about it at all, I merely expected lylo rules to apply today. Your version sounds intriguing.

As a matter of fact, Guess Who almost ended up having my version, with a randomized vote. Eventually Eloh changed her mind and decided to do it the way you are describing. I think it varies. In my site, a tie is always randomized. I agree your way is more fair, though, although bad for us.

I don't know how Epi would do it, though. I just assumed he could do the coinflip and mentioned how I don't like that.

#2481

Ricochet wrote:Hmmmmm now that is a claim I feel I'm finally starting to understand. Unfortunately I'm not sure it excludes Moloch from that picture, even if you say you would never claim him.

No, it doesn't. I could be Moloch and be lieing everything, or be intentionally revealing it as part of some crazy gambit to fulfill my wincon.

But in that case, what I claim or don't claim doesn't really matter. It's all deception. It only matters if I'm a civ. So what I mean is that you should interpret it as if I tried to claim something other than Moloch.

#2482

Thought: which is more likely: That Moloch didn't inherit the kill proper or that it was a failed kill attempt?

#2483

This endgame is awesome.

#2484

Ignore the above question.........

#2485

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
As for the lylo thing, think about this: we have 4 players left. We lynch one, he flips civ. Moloch kills someone. Now there are 2 players left. Assuming nobody is silenced, they vote for each other. The host has to flip a coin to decide the winner.
I can't actually claim to know the intricacies (sp?) of lylo scenarios (I think I first heard and witnessed it on the Champions game Turnip played, I had to bother MP with questions about what it all means), but I believe that situation after a failed lylo is that civs will not manage to overcome/defeat the baddie in any way, so it counts as their loss. In this case, if 2 players end up, unsilenced, on D11, one being Moloch and one being the last civ, the civ can't overwhelm or defeat Moloch by simply way of vote, so he'd be considered the default loser.

But again, I'm not actually sure about it at all, I merely expected lylo rules to apply today. Your version sounds intriguing.
As a matter of fact, Guess Who almost ended up having my version, with a randomized vote. Eventually Eloh changed her mind and decided to do it the way you are describing. I think it varies. In my site, a tie is always randomized. I agree your way is more fair, though, although bad for us.

I don't know how Epi would do it, though. I just assumed he could do the coinflip and mentioned how I don't like that.

I remember Epig once saying that, in theory, an even-numbered lylo is worse for the civs to end up in than an odd-numbered lylo - not sure if I can find it, but it sounded like he thinks in terms of lylos deciding it strictly.

#2486

I'll respond either way.

I think there are more possibilities. Moloch did not kill but did something else, such as a vote manipulation. Or maybe he choose not to kill because his wincon demands him to delay the game longer. Or maybe he only has a one-shot kill, like the Comedian, and had to use different abilities in the night.

#2487

MovingPictures07 wrote:This endgame is awesome.

Bet you must be entertained. The guy who first popped the question what would you do in a lylo now gets to watch its respondents sweat it out in the real thing.

#2488

Ricochet wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
As for the lylo thing, think about this: we have 4 players left. We lynch one, he flips civ. Moloch kills someone. Now there are 2 players left. Assuming nobody is silenced, they vote for each other. The host has to flip a coin to decide the winner.
I can't actually claim to know the intricacies (sp?) of lylo scenarios (I think I first heard and witnessed it on the Champions game Turnip played, I had to bother MP with questions about what it all means), but I believe that situation after a failed lylo is that civs will not manage to overcome/defeat the baddie in any way, so it counts as their loss. In this case, if 2 players end up, unsilenced, on D11, one being Moloch and one being the last civ, the civ can't overwhelm or defeat Moloch by simply way of vote, so he'd be considered the default loser.

But again, I'm not actually sure about it at all, I merely expected lylo rules to apply today. Your version sounds intriguing.
As a matter of fact, Guess Who almost ended up having my version, with a randomized vote. Eventually Eloh changed her mind and decided to do it the way you are describing. I think it varies. In my site, a tie is always randomized. I agree your way is more fair, though, although bad for us.

I don't know how Epi would do it, though. I just assumed he could do the coinflip and mentioned how I don't like that.
I remember Epig once saying that, in theory, an even-numbered lylo is worse for the civs to end up in than an odd-numbered lylo - not sure if I can find it, but it sounded like he thinks in terms of lylos deciding it strictly.

It gets better when players are allowed to vote "no lynch". So they can decide not to lynch someone in the hase, only in the next one. In that case, it's not a lylo anymore, it's called "mylo" (myslinch and lose). Because you don't have to lynch a bad, but you can't afford to lynch a civ either.

Of course, allowing players to vote "no lynch" can cause other balance problemas depending on the setup

#2489

Have we tried a meta perspective? Russ is coming across to me (for lack of a better word) a very emotional player this game.
He's said Holy (shit, cow, fuck, etc) a lot this game, and it's reading off to me on the reread. Just a point if someone needs a jumping off point i guess..

#2490

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
As for the lylo thing, think about this: we have 4 players left. We lynch one, he flips civ. Moloch kills someone. Now there are 2 players left. Assuming nobody is silenced, they vote for each other. The host has to flip a coin to decide the winner.
I can't actually claim to know the intricacies (sp?) of lylo scenarios (I think I first heard and witnessed it on the Champions game Turnip played, I had to bother MP with questions about what it all means), but I believe that situation after a failed lylo is that civs will not manage to overcome/defeat the baddie in any way, so it counts as their loss. In this case, if 2 players end up, unsilenced, on D11, one being Moloch and one being the last civ, the civ can't overwhelm or defeat Moloch by simply way of vote, so he'd be considered the default loser.

But again, I'm not actually sure about it at all, I merely expected lylo rules to apply today. Your version sounds intriguing.
As a matter of fact, Guess Who almost ended up having my version, with a randomized vote. Eventually Eloh changed her mind and decided to do it the way you are describing. I think it varies. In my site, a tie is always randomized. I agree your way is more fair, though, although bad for us.

I don't know how Epi would do it, though. I just assumed he could do the coinflip and mentioned how I don't like that.
I remember Epig once saying that, in theory, an even-numbered lylo is worse for the civs to end up in than an odd-numbered lylo - not sure if I can find it, but it sounded like he thinks in terms of lylos deciding it strictly.
It gets better when players are allowed to vote "no lynch". So they can decide not to lynch someone in the hase, only in the next one. In that case, it's not a lylo anymore, it's called "mylo" (myslinch and lose). Because you don't have to lynch a bad, but you can't afford to lynch a civ either.

Of course, allowing players to vote "no lynch" can cause other balance problemas depending on the setup

I'm purely guessing that, in our mentality, a mylo would be seen as giving the last baddie another Night to kill and no civ would wanna do that instead of honestly playing his final shot.

#2491

Rezz me and I'll... participate.

#2492

Quickly skimmed the last games Russ played, seems like normal diction...

#2493

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Normally I'd say "sorry LoRab, this was a stupid mistake", but I feel like I'm starting to sound like a broken record.

I REALLY need a break from mafia.
Not much I can say other than the fact it was legit. I've been feeling pretty ashamed for my consecutive failures in lynching.

And yes, I really need a break from mafia. After this game don't expect me to see here again for a few months.

This could be fear that saying sorry to too many civ lynches in a row would get suspicious. To Paranoid Russti it reads forced.

Russtifinko wrote:And where at you at right now in terms of suspicions?
I honestly don't suspect any of the three. Whoever of you is mafia played a very good game.

Of course I have to choose one, though.

I had some tinfoils and weird feelings about Rico all game, but overall I think he's playng a terrific civ game. Plus he had some tunneling and stubborn ways of playing that seemed natural, and that a mafia player might avoid making, such as his long tunneling on Elo, or the accusations he made over a bunch of random things I said. Questioning something as a baddie can be risky, because the person you're questioning might call you out for trying to manipulate what they said. And I've seen Rico doing a lot of playe that I could call Risky.

Don't really feel like voting Made. Both him and Bass had pretty clean civ games, specially Bass. If they win, it's a win we can't do anything about, imo. The feeling I have about him is good, although not very developed, and I haven't seen anything bad about him or Bass. I think a vote on him would be too blind unless we can find a good reason.

You are the one I'd vote for right now. I have a civ read on you, but the weakest of the three. Compared to Rico, I could see you as a player who has been careful through all game, trying to seem contributive but without taking big risks. You have mostly stayed out of people's radars for most of the game, save a few mild suspicions. Of course, a lot of that is probably related to your playstyle, even if you are a bad. But overall, I don't see many signs of a player who takes risks and plays the game to the fullest, and you give me a feeling of blending in sometimes. Yet, if I vote for you, it will still be a vote for someone who in my opinion looks more civ than otherwise.

This is difficult as fuck.

Thanks for the responses, DDL. Ugh, you seem pretty genuine! But I'm in the same spot as you: basically, if Rico is bad, he suckered me completely and deserves the win. Made could be, but reads good in the time he was here, even though it was relatively short. I had been leaning somewhat civ on you, and most of my recent pings on you are coming from trying to fit someone into the role of Moloch. It's hard to fit Moloch to any of you, but harder for the other two than you.

Linki: Holy linki that's a lot of linki! Just kidding, Made. I dunno how to respond to your point except to say that lots of surprising things have happened: I was surprised by the huge number of posts to start the game, the crunch time craziness on lynches, and Cookie flipping bad, to name a few things.

DDL, as far as the kill theories: Big Figure could kill and silence at the same time, right? So wouldn't it stand to reason that Moloch could kill and use whatever other powers he has at the same time? I suppose the lengthening the game win con is plausible, but for any LMS to win a game it has to be super long, so that seems a little redundant. And Cookie had the kill during two times it was missed, if I'm not mistaken.

Double linki: Ignore my above defense, then. I suppose I'm just generally a very surprised person.

#2494

I just wanna write this down, admist all the talking in between.

I have to say, the list I made did aid me to get a small ping from Russ; probably not enough to shake my gut feelings about DDL [so I'd call him my #2 choice atm - I'm getting nowhere with Made reads, so back at you buddy: if you're Moloch, goddamn it], but it was more than I previous got from ever reading him, which could be precious at this stage. Given his theory of Moloch being a dynamic changer (although he referred specifically to the kill switch from the Inmates to Moloch as the right time for moodswinging), I'm rather seeing such (general) changes in his play the most of all here:

-- His early Day mild suspicions have been addressed before and are what got him the first suspicions - as I've pointed in the list, this could either be a genuine civ warm up, after a tough few days of having the chance to participate, or a genuine indy difficulty to cling to anything yet.
-- Then he's finally engaged and his D5 (MP), D6 and D7 (Lor) votes start reflecting the leads he mostly pursued; I wrote this down as either very consistent hunting (civ, even if wrong) or well-groomed consistency in the eyes of the community (indy); his LoRab hunt especially gives me slight pause, since he didn't see her at first as a Big Figure candidate, but then got totally pinged by her defensive attitude and circular reasonings; again, I can hardly call this inherently bad, since I was also drawn in by LoRab's atittude the wrong way, but in his case, it was two days in a row mainting this focus.
-- His Cookie vote reads completely neutral; all of us here voted Cookie, so any of us could be Moloch who, on that Day, wanted and got his turn at the mafia table.
-- His G-Man ping is the only one in this sequence that reads to me more like genuine freaking out than pulling another hunt-to-do from the dossier. But it's still a long and tad bumpy evolution, as pointed out.

#2495

It's all a balance between what Moloch can do, and what he has to do. If he has powerful abilities, then he needs to have a difficult wincon. And vice-versa. That's why it's hard to predict, since we know neither his wincon nor his abilities. The host could give him any arbitrary limitations in order to balance a powerful ability or an easy wincon.

#2496

I don't think we can extrapolate [I'm never sure of using this word correctly, but it's endgame, so f it] what abilities Moloch might use or even might have used already. If it's vote manipulation, it didn't show in the previous lynches - or there wasn't room enough for it to be revealed: Cookie went down easy, MM went down by a visible gap of two. So I can buy, for instance, into the idea that there would be reason to send the game in super over-time if Derf would be alive and would have a chance to stay alive until D11, nail Moloch with a silence and grab the win; but I can't project Moloch's ways of extending past the lylo by means of abilities, if the lylo itself would constitute the civs' defeat, should they fail to catch him during it.

#2497

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:It's all a balance between what Moloch can do, and what he has to do. If he has powerful abilities, then he needs to have a difficult wincon. And vice-versa. That's why it's hard to predict, since we know neither his wincon nor his abilities. The host could give him any arbitrary limitations in order to balance a powerful ability or an easy wincon.

Yeah, it's possible I guess. I'm just saying that it seems far-fetched, because it doesn't seem like it would make winning much harder for Moloch. And it would leave the possibility of no one winning at all, if he won but too soon.

Rico, to your point about me: I have had to reach a little more to find people to suspect lately, because the people I was very suspicious of were either lynched or NKed. I think if you read back you'll see it's a natural response to game flow.

Linki: You're right; figuring out how the game would go after this lynch is a shot in the dark. Hopefully we can get him today and not have to worry about it.

#2498

Since it's now less than 30 minutes to the end of the world, let's unwind for 30 seconds with the irony that Russ is super paranoid about profiling the LMS after hosting the only game in Syndicate history (so far) in which the LMS crushed it. :P

#2499

Looking at Made's vote record on a vacuum, it doesn't say a lot of good about him. First vote he threw on MM, who everyone else was ignoring, justifying it as "what Bass would do". That may be because he didn't have time to make a better vote, but he didn't say it. Next day he is the first person to vote Cookie, which could be risky in a sense but at this point Cookie was pretty much doomed, so maybe not so risky. Last vote he voted MM with some decent explanation... but I dunno, there weren't any baddies left, so it wouldn't be really risky.

Earlier in the game I'd press him more, but the lack of polls for him to vote damps any suspicion on him. So a vote on him would be a very uninformed one, but overall his vote record says more bad than civ for me, mainly because of the first vote.

#2500

Ricochet wrote:Since it's now less than 30 minutes to the end of the world, let's unwind for 30 seconds with the irony that Russ is super paranoid about profiling the LMS after hosting the only game in Syndicate history (so far) in which the LMS crushed it. :P

What game?

Who deserves justice?