The Syndicate

So:

1) Less sure about TSP now given that he didn't OMGUS me under the threat of being suicide bombed by Mac. He could also have not believed that Mac had a suicide bomb, but I think wolf TSP would try to shade me after the Mac and FG flips rather than be like "yeah this spews both of us town".

2) My certain reads are nutella town, Hyena prob town, Quin prob town. I don't think wolf nutella hipfires onto LC even if he was the lost wolf and she thought he was town, because if she hipfired onto a townie she'd attract a lot of negative attention.

3) TL, why does your readslist containing the 4 original gang members at the top? Did everyone in there obvtown during D1, or are you just suspecting everyone in the thread?

oh shit, I misread it

Marmot talk to me about your progression on Enrique vs Poison D2. In #1175, you clearly indicate that you're scumreading Enrique and like the recent content from Poison. This is reinforced by you interrogating Enrique in #1177, while saying in #1192 that we're "voting Poison just for a reveal" (ie. not because she's actually scum).

However, in #1200, you indicate that you no longer wish to vote Enrique because of his claim that he performed a positive action on nutella. Sloonei points out in #1201 that abilities are not alignment-indicative, and you respond to that by doing a big shrug and going "well, the vote's gotta go somewhere" in #1202 before voting Poison in #1205.

Earlier, your stance seemed to be suspecting Enrique over Poison - later on you felt better about Enrique because of the claim. But Sloonei pointed out that the claim was NAI. What was the reason you voted Poison over Enrique in the end despite the claim (which is what put Enrique over Poison according to you) being NAI?

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:46 pm I'm more interested in solving Alison than marmot right now anyway

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

wolfy post

Give me one reason why Quin is scummy beyond not saying much in the gang BTSC because I townread them fairly firmly right now.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:20 pm [VOTE: alison] aubergine


for mac

ok nutella

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:41 pm Quin may not have done anything obviously town but he didn't really do anything scummy either. I think more than anything else he was weirded out by the format. Why do you townread quin so strongly?

Because Quin was begging Mac not to shoot FG and the FG shot was pretty bad for town. Mac was choosing between FG and me, and both of us are town. A wolf has no reason to do anything but sit back and eat chips there.

I'm around but don't have much to say honestly. I've made my reads clear and people aren't engaging so I'm just spinning my wheels right now.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:24 am @Alison Can you talk about your interactions with vulgard and long con? We know that they were both wolves and talked at each other openly in the thread, and it looks like you did as well.

Yeah, I talked to them. Do you have a specific interaction you wanted to comment on or is your case just "these three people talked to each other a lot so they must be scum trying to distance from each other"?

Also I'm fairly sure Vulgard's interactions with me were more pocket indicative than anything the way he immediately called me the best town player ever and out of my scum range and stuff the moment LC flipped and heat was put on him. That's the kind of stuff you say to someone you're trying to buddy up to, not distance from. If you think my scum range is so wide that I can't spew myself clear from just, y'know, fucking killing a wolf, then look at what they say to me, because their scumrange is a lot tighter than mine.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:34 am Mmm yeah I can see that. Plus Mac believed it and he has wolfed with her with solid distancing to great effect.

Mac also believed there was one scum in nut/Sloonei, that Poison was probably scum and that FG was the best choice of bomb target, so maybe lay off the "Mac is town so if he said Alison could be distancing then she is" stuff? Like all of us have had wrong reads this game, we all suspected Poison, you shot Enrique yourself, etc. It's a lazy way to play if you're just gonna vote me because Mac said so and you're paranoid I'm fooling you because I had more than 1 wrong read this game.

Why are my interactions with LC and Vulgard indicative of a planned distancing strategy rather than just town talking to mafia?

Also for the record at the time I moved from Poison to Vulgard the vote count was 5 Poison, 3 Vulgard. If I stayed the course I could have swung a Poison kill there and I moved before anyone else did. I said I did it because I read the Vulgard wagon as pure (which it probably is - 2/3 there have flipped town and nutella is also most likely town), which is exactly what I did in Radiohead. Are you suggesting that I saw LC get shot and immediately decided to bus my teammate instead of going for a clean exe on Poison that gives me 100% plausible deniability?

My point was actually that from the perspective of a mafia who saw LC being dayvigged halfway through Day 1, and then sees Poison (a scummy looking townie) and Vulgard (a fellow member of the mafia) being Day 1 consensus wagons, they'd be heavily inclined to vote Poison there because they don't want to have 2 mafia go down in Day 1 alone.

I'm not going to pretend that hard bussing like that is out of my scum range but the amount of power it makes the wolves lose is significant so you should at least adjust the probability of me doing it as mafia downwards. I could do it as mafia if I think it's necessary, but it wasn't really necessary there since I had full plausible deniability voting Poison since everyone suspected her. If you'll recall I opened this day phase with an initial suspicion of Tony for insisting on the Poison wagon according to this analysis.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:53 am Alright Alison that adds up to a solid if not airtight alibi, but something still feels wrong. Shouldn't we have a stronger lead on who was partnered with LC and Vulgard? Town bagged two mafs early, they said a lot of things, but it feels like we're still swimming in the dark.

I thought Nutella had vouched for tsp early, is that still in play?

Part of that could be accounted for by the presence of a mafia member in the 4 players that were out of the thread. eg. If there's 3 mafia total, and the third was out of the thread D1, then obviously you'd have nobody to tie Vulgard or LC to. If there's 4 then you're looking for a single person connected to Vulgard/LC in all of the players who were participating in the thread on D1, so it's natural to feel lost if you're searching for a needle in a haystack.

One of the reasons it might feel like you have surprisingly little information despite mafia flips is that red flips often come later in the game when you have 2 or 3 days of vote analysis, nightkill analysis, post analysis and all that stuff to work on. The earlier a mafia gets killed the less information you get from their kill. We don't know anything about how LC would have voted at EoD. We don't know anything about how LC would have voted on Vulgard to indicate if they were taking a more distant view of their teammates or trying to powerwolf more. This phenomenon where town gets lost after early success is very common on the Syndicate and is a reason why we often lose games after early scum exes.

Re: TSP, I suspected him slightly earlier in the day but I'm feeling a lot better about him now because mechanical information has come out that makes his claim much less suspicious/explains away a lot of the strange stuff I thought was made up about his claim. Plus his behavior regarding the Mac suicide bombing was pretty townie - he didn't jump at the chance to shade me, he didn't immediately OMGUS me to try to get Mac to blow me up, etc.

Out of the people in the gang I have a townread on Quin because I have trouble understanding why wolf Quin begs Mac to bomb Marmot over FG, and I townread Hyena for just general townie tone + the "notes" stuff they were keeping seeming difficult to fake as scum. It would be a very manipulative and calculative move to keep notes that extensive and tonally good as scum to dump when they got back into the thread and they don't strike me as that kind of player even as a wolf.

TL and you I am less certain about. I started neutral on you, got suspicious when you talked a lot about wanting to solve me but ended up pushing a single narrative on me rather than actually trying to talk to me, and then felt slightly better after you moved on from that and started considering other POVs. TL has some townie posts but the general tone feels like someone trying to imitate tutuu which is pretty sour. I am scum leaning Marmot, I had them in the POE after TSP and FG. FG has flipped green and TSP has done work to clear his name, and I had that progression inconsistency on Marmot that they still haven't cleared up.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:22 am For the record I think it would be easy for quin to "push" Mac into blowing up marmot over FG if Quin's bad. It gets him maybe a few points but it's not exactly out of his wheelhouse to make a post like that, that's a kind of thing I think he could fake well.

Yeah, but how does that scenario play out? If Quin pushes Mac into blowing up Marmot and Marmot flips green, all eyes will be on Quin. With them being already sort of suspected by many/most people in the punk gang, and having just been spotted openly goading Mac into blowing up a townie, Quin will be the next on the chopping block 100% of the time.

Does a wolf Quin sacrifice their life to take out a townie who was already under very heavy suspicion instead of just... sitting back and letting Mac blow up FG without taking any blame for it?

Okay, let's talk TL then. My main concern with TL is that their tone feels a little forced, like someone trying to fake the kind of bubbly, enthusiastic tone that eg. town tutuu has. Do you have experience with them/know if the tone they've displayed here is standard for them?

Alright, I'm back.

Why is the vote count this stagnant

Like we're 3 and a half hours from EOD and half the game hasn't voted

I'm going to [VOTE: Marmot] aubergine since I believe in that exe more than TSP now. My POE is probably Marmot > TL > TH > TSP.

[mention]Turnip Head[/mention] can you move your vote since you mentioned not wanting to exe me today after all? It's drawing pretty near to EOD and I'd like to not get exed because nobody wants to vote and nobody remembered to change their vote. You too [mention]nutella[/mention]

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:32 pm Why is the vote count this stagnant

Like we're 3 and a half hours from EOD and half the game hasn't voted

4.5 hours. You have to manually adjust your DST settings to adjust to the current time.

DST should just be abolished

I'm reading your catchup Marmot but there's not much for me to engage with because it's mostly just you just clarifying what happened.

Who do you actually suspect outside of OMGUS?

huuuh

and you suspect quin mostly because of slanking in the gang chat?

actually I'm not feeling the marmot exe. We've been coasting towards it all day, thread is stagnant, nobody seems to care if marmot dies. I would expect more aggression on my wagon (since it's the counterwagon to marmot's atm) if they were scum.

This exe is a trap. Scum is probably sitting back and watching popcorn while letting townies coast to a Marmot/Alison exe and just brazenly going afk in the thread.

[VOTE: Trustworthy Liberal] aubergine

Their tone is sketchy, they won't vote, they only appear in the thread to defend themselves (when nutella threatened to shoot them and when TH and I questioned their tone), and their only push of note is an insane nutella tinfoil. I think there is a good chance TL is scum slanking their way through the day.

So I can't see your chat so I can't offer detailed commentary on Quin's chat activity but I will say that the game as a whole slowed down immensely after D1.

What's your feeling on TL, TH?

I don't know what you guys are seeing about TL's entrance that makes you want to clear him

Okay but TL has legitimately only shown up to defend himself while making a big deal out of how nutella could be scum and then voting Quin

Also can we like consolidate since 1/1/1/2/1 wagon formations are awful

rip me

I said to consolidate but I'm not a big fan of the quin wagon and there's no other wagon to consolidate to

is there anyone here who has interest in a TL exe

tony why is TL not in your POE

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:28 pm Not confirmed as
A) Has a chance not to work.
B) You couuld have a different mafia carry the kill as you are in a chat and another mafia carrys it.

TL if you acknowledge that you know B) then why were you trying to get yourself cleared by having the punk gang roleblock you

were you trying to go for a cheap townclear

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:53 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:51 pm

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:28 pm Not confirmed as
A) Has a chance not to work.
B) You couuld have a different mafia carry the kill as you are in a chat and another mafia carrys it.

TL if you acknowledge that you know B) then why were you trying to get yourself cleared by having the punk gang roleblock you

were you trying to go for a cheap townclear

Naw i just didn't want to sstop a town menber.

I was the first to vote and honestly outside the group was unsure of stuff.
And if mafia controled if it worked or not best choice is someone with out a power action and thouse not losing power on a towny

why not angle for a roleblock on whoever you suspected the most strongly in punk chat rather than yourself? if your opinion is that the people in the thread are so townie that you'd be scared of roleblocking a townie if you fire into them, why not block someone in the punk chat you suspected?

yuck

unfortunately I sort of believe that TL legitimately believes that mafia controls the roleblock just due to the way that they're arguing for it

so if they're mafia they're TMI-ing that mafia does control the roleblock and if they're town they just didn't think it true

what was the phrasing of the way the roleblock worked? was it something like "you may vote for who to roleblock etc. and it might or might not go through"?

what if TL was the lost wolf who angled for a roleblock on himself because he was afraid of the punk chat roleblocking the mafia?

and if he's lost he wouldn't know who his mafia buddy was which means that any roleblock could potentially be disastrous, except on himself, the one person he knows isn't performing the nightkill

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:06 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:04 pm what if TL was the lost wolf who angled for a roleblock on himself because he was afraid of the punk chat roleblocking the mafia?

and if he's lost he wouldn't know who his mafia buddy was which means that any roleblock could potentially be disastrous, except on himself, the one person he knows isn't performing the nightkill

This reads as Alison is mafia and needs me mis elminated to win.

this reads as TL is mafia and did exactly what I outlined in his post and then internally died when I said his exact plan

Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:12 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:11 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:07 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:07 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:06 pm Wait.... WAIT.... I THINK I GET WHAT TONY IS SAYING NOW ABOUT THE RB!!!

There can be MORE than one wolf in punk chat, and if this is the case, Marmot is always town here! Because that would balance out the wolves almost having majority over punk chat!!!

wait what

Think about it. If there are two town and two scum in the punk chat, both sides have an equal opportunity to push who they want to get RB'd. Also, keep in mind that if we don't come to a consensus, we eventually die, so there's incentive to just come to an agreement on someone. However, Marmot can just veto that RB if they think it's a bad RB, or one that comes from scum. Does that make any sense?

And if this is the case, Trustworthy is actually pretty towny for wanting to vote themself, and TSP is town for being the consensus on N2.

so I follow your initial post about the mechanics suggesting marmot being town, but I don't follow this one about trustworthy and TSP being town for that.

wait I actually don't follow your initial post sorry

you're suggesting that in a world where 2 members of the punk chat are scum, marmot is the townie sent by nanook to bring balance to the force; that makes sense, but how do you know that 2 members of the punk chat are scum?

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:14 pm you're suggesting that in a world where 2 members of the punk chat are scum, marmot is the townie sent by nanook to bring balance to the force; that makes sense, but how do you know that 2 members of the punk chat are scum?

hm

the word "consensus" suggests that even 1 dissenter in the punk chat would lead everyone in the punk chat to die

if there was 1 scum and 4 town in the punk chat then that 1 scum could intentionally vote against the consensus and just open wolf to blow up 4 town along with themselves, which is a pretty good trade

So maybe the protection against this strategy is that there's 2 scum in the punk chat, so they'd be trading 2 mafia for 3 town if they did that, which would be balanced

how does nanook stop the 1 scum in the punk chat from intentionally dissenting to blow the whole gang up?

nutella is right though that it would be super weird for nook to just let everyone in the thread be town in d2

maybe we have to explore 4 mafia + 1 lost wolf theories? town seems to have a lot of KP (nutella, mac, FG's role seemed to imply she could beat up some mafia as well) to compensate for it

Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:18 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:16 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:14 pm you're suggesting that in a world where 2 members of the punk chat are scum, marmot is the townie sent by nanook to bring balance to the force; that makes sense, but how do you know that 2 members of the punk chat are scum?

hm

the word "consensus" suggests that even 1 dissenter in the punk chat would lead everyone in the punk chat to die

if there was 1 scum and 4 town in the punk chat then that 1 scum could intentionally vote against the consensus and just open wolf to blow up 4 town along with themselves, which is a pretty good trade

So maybe the protection against this strategy is that there's 2 scum in the punk chat, so they'd be trading 2 mafia for 3 town if they did that, which would be balanced

No, no, there could be one dissenter, but ONLY one. And Marmot couldn't vote. So, there was only four of us voting each time.

oh ok

so 1 scum is still the most likely option then

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:19 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:17 pm I'm sorry but I refuse to believe nanook put two out of (presumably) four mafia in the out of thread gang and didn't bring them back after we killed two mafia d1

if the d2 thread was pure I'm never playing a nanook game again

There are like 3 people in this thread that were in D2. I'm betting they're pure. Now, it's my fault for locking up Alison if Alison's a wolf and it's Marmot's fault for not pulling them back but D2 thread could easily have been pure.

are you claiming that you were the one who pulled me out of the thread?

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:20 pm On phone but posting changes in thoughts.

TSP<--- Up to a town read think his approach this EoD would have been to just pile on me as wolf.

Alison<---- Not liking most world views as they are getting pushed into the elimination pile. Likely wolf because if this wolf read.

you had 0 problems with me calling you a wolf up until I said the stuff about you being the lost wolf, then suddenly you're all over me. I'm thinking you got caught and are panicking. Your characterization of Alison as a desperate wolf who's self-pressing doesn't make sense because I would just vote Quin if that were the case, unless you think the team is exactly Alison/Quin

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:21 pm I claimed that literally at the beginning of Day 2, me and Mac had a conversation where I re quoted the posts and it was acknowledged, and it boggles me that you are only now getting this

a lot of stuff has happened and mech stuff slips my mind

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:25 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:22 pm

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:20 pm On phone but posting changes in thoughts.

TSP<--- Up to a town read think his approach this EoD would have been to just pile on me as wolf.

Alison<---- Not liking most world views as they are getting pushed into the elimination pile. Likely wolf because if this wolf read.

you had 0 problems with me calling you a wolf up until I said the stuff about you being the lost wolf, then suddenly you're all over me. I'm thinking you got caught and are panicking. Your characterization of Alison as a desperate wolf who's self-pressing doesn't make sense because I would just vote Quin if that were the case, unless you think the team is exactly Alison/Quin

I think your scum as you are narrowing into a extremely small likely hood in order to save people I scum read.

As well as I have a decent amount of experience as town being pushed by town and I don't get that feeling from you. That feeling is also why I believe Nutella is even more likely town and dropped my paranoid case on them

yeah, no, this is bullshit, you are just wolf. I've been on you since long before you re-entered the thread & held my case against you even when the wagon against me dropped to 0. you are clearly not obvtown in any way so claiming that I am scum because I'm voting you even when you have very low wolf equity is nonsensical

my case against you is:

- you have only entered the thread to defend yourself

- you made a big deal out of tinfoiling nutella and then "re-evaluating" on her, but you never voted her or did anything at all with the case which makes me think it's just faked paranoia

- your roleblocking yourself action makes perfect sense for a lost wolf to do if they want to look townie while also ensuring that the roleblock doesn't hit their partner

note: if you believe that there are 2 wolves in punk chat, and you trust hyena and marmot (which you probably should if you believe tha there are 2 wolves in punk chat), then the only world that TL isn't scum is if the team is exactly TH/quin. TH was gunning for Quin's death earlier so ask yourself if you think TH would feel any pressure at all to bus Quin here when they could have easily gone for Marmot or even me.

If you don't think it's exactly TH/Quin then TL has to be one of the mafia in the punk chat.