The Syndicate

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:44 pm I think they can easily be both mafia. Poison delayed the self-pres on Vulgard (which I would've thought would be nearly automatic here if Poison is town) until it became very clear that the exe was either Poison or Vulgard today. I think that might be because she was holding out hope on swinging the wagon onto someone else at the last minute.

Also I think Poison said before that Vulgard and myself were her two strongest scumreads so it makes even less sense that she'd wait so long to vote Vulgard.

The thing is that if Poison is a wolf and Vulgard is town then she immediately votes him. She didn't do that. Which means the only world in which Vulgard is not a wolf is if they are V/V, which is a) very unlikely and b) wouldn't be solved by moving my vote to Poison.

Which means Vulgard is always the best vote here.

Honestly the more I think about it the more I think that them being W/W is the only world that makes sense.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:53 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:52 pm The thing is that if Poison is a wolf and Vulgard is town then she immediately votes him. She didn't do that. Which means the only world in which Vulgard is not a wolf is if they are V/V, which is a) very unlikely and b) wouldn't be solved by moving my vote to Poison.

Which means Vulgard is always the best vote here.

Not necessarily, note that Poison in the last game was always very hesitant to place votes as a wolf

Yeah but if it's Poison wolf, Vulgard town, who else is Poison voting except Vulgard?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:54 pm Poison specifically held her vote until the last possible moment, even if she had already signalled intent. It's one of the things here that makes me SR her

Did she do that in Radiohead? I can't remember.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:00 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:59 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:58 pm What if we win the game before the other four get to join us in the thread?

what if there's a wolf locked up and we get all of the in thread wolves first :P

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

you're nuts, Hyena has been openwolfing all day

Are you allowed to link us to the group chat? eg. in Grasslands people got private chat, but could share it with the rest of the game if they wanted.

Can you briefly summarize what Quin did in the thread to make you scumread them?

I'm here. I was whisked out of the thread by an unknown effect last night. I don't know who did it. I didn't get a group chat or anything, all I was told was that I couldn't post in the thread or vote, so I just watched the thread as a spectator for D2.

I agree with Mac that it was super weird that TSP immediately assumed he was responsible for Sloonei's death - my immediate (and I think most people's immediate) assumption was that he was shot by the mafia. I sort of wonder if he was trying to play around a Tracker or Watcher result by immediately saying "yeah I did visit Sloonei so if any Trackers/Watchers saw it please don't get on my case about it".

I'm looking at FG/Marmot as well and I think it's more likely to be FG. FG has an energy to her play when she is town, even when she was being put under pressure in Jack Attack. She was under much less pressure here and didn't have that energy. The biggest reason to trust her is the very good associatives with Vulgard but I'm putting less stock in associative reads because Sloonei's note claims that there is a lost wolf.

Speaking of the Sloonei note, the ending of it seems to indicate that the person who wrote the note knew that Sloonei would be killed. Unless something very weird is going on it's probably not the case that Sloonei could foretell his own death. I can't come up with a plausible explanation for this though. Maybe it was mafia who sent the note - but then why would they reveal that they knew that Sloonei would die, and so tip off the townies that something was wrong? Alternatively maybe it's a "last will" sort of thing where Sloonei gets to infodump in a single note that gets released after his death. Or maybe there's a broadcaster-style role that delivers notes from the hands of whoever gets NKed that night. Or maybe maybe the whole "who's at my door" last line was added by the host himself as a feature of the note.

None of these possible explanations really feel convincing to me though.

I townread Hyena and since I don't have access to the group chat I'm going to more or less just sheep Hyena's take on things there.

Wait. Is it legal for Hyena to create a pastebin link with the full chat logs of the out of threaders' group chat, and link to it here?

I suspect it is not legal, but it doesn't hurt to check.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:26 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:23 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:19 pm Looking at Quin stuff now,

Quin liked the way Poison was handling the wagon against her.

They also thought that Nutella's shot on LC doesn't confirm her. Thought it was suss that Nutella's entire play was that she can specifically kill Long Con?? I dunno what was meant about the latter part -- you guys should probably ask them about that.

My role said I could target anyone and if they were the "right person" they would die, if they weren't nothing would happen. In a previous Nanook game TSP had a similar role and the "right person" was LC so I was sort of memeing about that in thread with TSP and thought it would be funny if it actually was LC again, so I sent it in not really expecting it to go through but when it did it was hilarious

LC was "Dimwitted Government Agency Man". Enrique was "Magic Man".

Is there a possibility that your role kills people with "man" in their role name? I could see nanook writing up all the roles and being like "oh shit, I have a bunch of role names that end in 'man', I should make a role that can only kill those". It would be on-brand for his sense of humor I think.

Oh I forgot TSP was angling for us to exe Poison over Vulgard D1. That's a big yikes.

Also it's not actually reasonable for TSP to look at Sloonei's note and think "hey maybe me targeting Sloonei with a mysterious action made that note get sent to him". Because Sloonei's note says "THERE IS OR WAS A LOST SCUM, THE GM WAS NOT CLEAR". If TSP wrote the note he would know for sure whether or not the note was written by him and not be uncertain about it. But if his role was target a player and the player gets the note, then he should know for a fact that he was not responsible for the note. Because "THE GM WAS NOT CLEAR" heavily, heavily implies that the note is written by someone who is not nanook. Therefore from the point of view of TSP, if he targeted Sloonei with an unknown ability and that note came out, he should know his ability is not responsible for it.

Also also, why is TSP pointing a mystery ability at Sloonei? Remember, he thought at first that he'd killed Sloonei with his ability - so he didn't know if that ability was positive or negative. Why would he randomly hipfire on consensus town in that circumstance with a mystery ability that could easily be negative?

The more I think about it the more nothing about TSP's SoD claim makes sense and I am leaning towards the theory that it was 100% made up.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:24 pm Well at first I thought it was just a single target for the whole game and I'd become vanilla after the LC shot, but I asked and he said I get a new "right person" each day and can submit a target each day, so I think it's just one exact "right person" at a time, not a set of possible targets. I hate that I hit a town one though, thought it would be reassigned to a diff mafia member after LC but I guess that's not quite how it works.

Okay. What do you make of my case on TSP?

I mean having a good D1 is one thing but his claim about what happened today is like. A tier below mechanically impossible. Like in theory it could be true but it would make no sense for it to be true.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:27 pm I think your points make some sense but in this weird game where we've seen other town roles with mystery targeting things there's certainly a world where TSP is just telling the truth and unclear what happened. Sloonei isn't here to berate me for invoking fancy MU jargon, so this could be a case where "Hoya theorem" applies -- a messy claim that makes little sense is more likely to come from town. But idk. Your point about him pushing Poison over Vul is fair as well.

The roles are complicated and mysterious, yeah, but them being complicated and mysterious doesn't explain eg. why TSP hipfired onto Sloonei with an unknown ability. Or why he assumed that the kill came from him. Or why he wasn't sure whether or not he wrote the note when he claimed a targetable mystery ability. None of those things make sense no matter how "mysterious" the roles are, because they're things that are psychologically implausible for a town member to do.

Re: Hoya's theorem. I think TSP is a veteran mafia player and knows how to construct a messy claim. I don't model him as having a significantly worse ability to come up with a fake role claim than you and this claim is not more "messily town" than your boat claim in Radiohead was.

I read TSP's ISO. If we cut out all the fluff he's scumsided all game.

He lightly defends Vulgard early on while claiming that he's nullreading Vulgard, shades Syn, shades me, and generally tries to push the conversation away from Vulgard by repeatedly insinuating that Vulgard has not posted much and doesn't deserve this much suspicion on them. Claims that Vulgard is the same as their town meta in #359, while at the same time claiming that they totally have a null read on Vulgard. (Claiming someone is null to you while clearly defending them is pretty BS, and reeks of scum trying to have the best of both worlds.) The read on Syn (who we now know is town) was also pretty bad: he says Syn hasn't done anything wrong, but not doing anything wrong is a scumtell. First of all, ???, and second of all, that sounds like he's leaving the door open to both scumread or townread Syn depending on what's convenient rather than giving a legitimate read.

Lots of hedginess all around. I can't find a single confident stance on LC or Vulgard, which should be a red flag since those two were hot topics. Big example of this is #497. He gives several reasons to believe that Vulgard is scum, but then caps it off with "it's wolfy BUT" and then says "it means you and Alison aren't W/W and nothing else". That reads to me like he was trying to awkwardly distance from Vulgard but thought he could swing a wagon onto Poison (which he tried to do) and didn't want to commit to the bus just yet. But leaves the door open to make him look good if Vulgard dies.

D2 was more hedginess, going back and forth on Poison. Sets himself up as Poison's defender by saying he should be mustering up the energy to defend her, and also tries to halt the exe while he asks for Poison's role claim in case she has a strong PR. Ends up voting her anyway, and I get a strong sense that he just doesn't give a fuck about the exe despite making a show of caring.

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention] In #1123 you said that Poison pointed out something that makes you queasy and immediately ask her to claim. You don't follow up on this. What was that about?

linki: Why would you use a positive ability on Sloonei and then immediately enter the thread with "oh shit guys I think I killed Sloonei by accident"?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:47 pm Linki: well I could have .

“TSP was wrong about poison he’s been scumsiding all game” is an absurd conclusion. I thought Poison was a hit. What do you mean “tries to set himself up as Poison’s defender with a post that says he can’t/won’t be Poison’s defender”. Also, I took a pretty clear stance on LC, I told everyone to vote for him.

You defended Vulgard early game, you tried to get us to exe Poison over Vulgard, and then you made a show of ensuring that town doesn't sleepwalk to a Poison exe without actually doing anything to stop the exe from happening.

My point re: the Poison's defender stuff is that the post in question indicates clearly that you wanted on some level to defend Poison, but you didn't actually do that. It's the equivalent of wanting everyone to know you had a townread on Poison and think it's bad that we're just autoexeing her, but doing nothing to actually save her.

Suspects other than TSP (in order):
1) FG
2) Marmot
3) Whoever Hyena thinks is scum from the 4 out of threaders.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:53 pm I didn’t think it was bad that we were chopping Poison. I wanted to chop poison. I clearly wanted to chop Poison. I thought Poison was mafia.

What was it about Poison that made you queasy? The context/implication is that you thought you saw either a towntell or a PR soft.

Post #1123 if you don't remember what I'm referring to.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:54 pm Actually I think Alison is mafia lol

nah

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:58 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:40 pm I routinely lie and manipulate as town. It's just optimal play.

Poison has told me that she often feels very uncomfortable as mafia and gets found out very quickly, and that she's generally bad at playing mafia. But in this game she feels very comfortable and fluid. I understand that a game where she is mafia has just ended; what was she like in that game?

First person to start gravitating towards a Poison yeet

Yeah I suspected Poison more than Vulgard, I never denied it. But when I saw the wagons settling in I voted Vulgard. Also the difference between me and TSP is that I had bad early reads and then dropped them and he continually scumsided throughout the whole of D1. Both LC and Vulgard spewed me town so.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:59 pm You both are pocketing Sloonei through sleeping the Vulgard read. Vulgard is openly scummy and three overt supertown types were pushing there. You just always bus. You overexplained the justification to bus.

Sloonei's vote was clearly a reaction test and he says as much himself. Agreeing with it isn't a pocket. This is a reach and you know it. Stop being obtuse.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:00 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:54 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:53 pm I didn’t think it was bad that we were chopping Poison. I wanted to chop poison. I clearly wanted to chop Poison. I thought Poison was mafia.

What was it about Poison that made you queasy? The context/implication is that you thought you saw either a towntell or a PR soft.

I have noted this, I’m waiting to get onto a computer because my feeling is I’m going to say something and you’re going to yell at me. In short: Poison noted something that I thought made Sloonei mafia

I'm waiting.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:02 pm Here you moved off the Poison vote to vote Vulgard as a resignation but keep slinging shit at Poison.

What I am seeing is someone who went about building negative momentum towards a heap of town players d1 but was forced to townside and vote Vulgard because of the gamestate.

You are simultaneously accusing me of trying to pocket Sloonei by bussing Vulgard and then claiming that I was forced to townside when I really wanted to exe Poison. I was one of the big pushers on Vulgard early too. It doesn't make sense to say that I was pushing both Vulgard and random townies. I didn't have to sling shit at Poison if I was mafia there either. I could just vote Vulgard, collect my towncred and let town talk themselves into a D2 Poison exe which they would have done with or without me throwing shade.

Mac I just went into your ISO and I can show you posts where you slung shit at nutella and shaded Poison just as well as I did. So you can fuck off with your push on me. Everyone suspected Poison D1 and you trying to make me seem like the villain because I pushed Poison annoys me.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:07 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:06 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:02 pm Here you moved off the Poison vote to vote Vulgard as a resignation but keep slinging shit at Poison.

What I am seeing is someone who went about building negative momentum towards a heap of town players d1 but was forced to townside and vote Vulgard because of the gamestate.

You are simultaneously accusing me of trying to pocket Sloonei by bussing Vulgard and then claiming that I was forced to townside when I really wanted to exe Poison. I was one of the big pushers on Vulgard early too. It doesn't make sense to say that I was pushing both Vulgard and random townies. I didn't have to sling shit at Poison if I was mafia there either. I could just vote Vulgard, collect my towncred and let town talk themselves into a D2 Poison exe which they would have done with or without me throwing shade.

The thing is I don't need to convince anyone I'm right cuz I'm just gonna kill you myself Alison.

I don't believe you have a dayvig, you're just saying this to troll me or because you're tunnelled. You did the exact same thing in Radiohead where you said you had a nuke that could kill all the mafia or whatever.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:11 pm Youre dying in a minute or so so leave your legacy miss supertown.

Same as before. TSP is bad, FG -> Marmot -> whoever Hyena suspects most in the 4 is my POE after him. nutella and Hyena are town.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:14 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:13 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:11 pm Youre dying in a minute or so so leave your legacy miss supertown.

Same as before. TSP is bad, FG -> Marmot -> whoever Hyena suspects most in the 4 is my POE after him. nutella and Hyena are town.

You sure you don't wanna say more?

No, not really, I've told you why your push on me is horrible and I've given you my legacy if you're telling the truth. Not sure why you'd expect me to have more to say. I'm not role claiming unless I see more proof that you aren't just BSing about your bomb threat.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:17 pm Let's take a minute to talk about how we both skipped a day. You say you don't know why you did. I know why I did cuz its part of my role. I recall someone claiming that they may have caused it. Who was it that said that?

I don't know why we both skipped. I just got a PM from nanook saying that I was out of the thread D2 and couldn't talk or vote. Then he pinged me in-thread to inform me that I was rejoining the thread. You're very obviously softing some kind of flavor cop with the thesis/antithesis talk so if our roles are linked somehow it's possible that you phasing out of the thread pulled me with you.

Nothing in my role would explain why I was yanked out of the thread yesterday. Nothing in my role references odd or even nights. That's what I can tell you.

Also nothing in my flavor seems connected to Mac's flavor.

Why do the wolves know it was you who put me out of the thread?

I'm sorry, I don't follow?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:59 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:56 pm I'm realizing that this might have been a less sure-fire logic train for the scum than I thought.

I think this data is all in the thread but to spell it out, I'm some sort of lackey. LC sent me actions and I could choose whether to fill them out. When he died Vul inherited his power (scum team ability??) but then after Vul died I got to choose my own targets.

I guess this explains why your first reaction was thinking you'd killed Sloonei

Why would a shared scum team effect have a positive effect like you said though? Just to fake a positive buffing PR?

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:11 pm yeah i think hyena's town here. still think tsp is town, too.

Have you read my case on him?

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:19 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:17 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:11 pm yeah i think hyena's town here. still think tsp is town, too.

Have you read my case on him?

yeah i have. i'm town reading tsp based on tone although yeah, his track record ain't great

but everyone wanted poison dead. so did you d1, and you almost voted off her over vulgard

Yeah but there's a difference between "I think Poison is scummy" and trying to get the town to vote for Poison over Vulgard at the critical moment. And I also wrote a bunch more stuff later on about how TSP's claim doesn't make sense in various ways.

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:20 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:18 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:17 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:12 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:11 pm yeah i think hyena's town here. still think tsp is town, too.

has hyena... said anything??

yeah. hyena's activity in the group chat is hella town imo

not that i've seen this group chat lol i obv haven't but like based on his posts. also people in the gc are town reading him too so i bet he's been PRO-TOWN

Nobody was pro-towning it in there. There wasn't an incentive to do much more than share reads and talk about who we'd roleblock.

So what are your reads

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:22 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:59 pm I still think TSP/Mac/Alison can all be town even if it feels unlikely at the moment. I'd rather look in Marmot/FG/Quin/TH first.

yeah this is the move

What happened to your "always POE Alison" paranoia that you had earlier? You were like "wtf" when you saw Mac's scumread on me and are now pushing for TSP/Mac/Alison to be completely pure.

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:22 pm Thank you for asking TSP is bad

Nutella is also bad on the premise that she hasn't shown me what I'm looking for in a town nutella yet.

I don't think it's within nutella's scum range to just blow her wolf buddy's brains out halfway through D1.

I agree with you that TSP is bad. What are your reads on the people in the 4P?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:27 pm Also 'tsp boldly claims actions that he didn't take /that have thread verification/ is bold

My theory was actually "TSP kills Sloonei and then claims an unrelated visit on Sloonei to pre-emptively get ahead of Trackers/Watchers".

Quin has like this bitter/angry undertone to every description of their interaction with the 4P gang and I don't understand why.

Quin you seemed to have felt Marmot's entrance into the 4P gang is a big deal and that people should have taken it a lot more seriously. Can you break down for me why this is a surprising development or why we should suspect Marmot based off it?

The joke is that nutella actually waffles like crazy as town until she gets a soul read.

Maybe we just have different expectations regarding the setup but the way the game was marketed to me as "role madness with arguably bastard elements", it would not surprise me if there was a role that could join BTSCs.

Hey, sorry for going missing. I had to sleep and then attend Halloween events. I'm going to catch up now.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:40 pm [VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

He infested our punk chat on night 1 and never stopped saying sketchy things

I'm confused by this characterization, Quin said that everyone but them immediately trusted/accepted Marmot when Marmot came into the chat?