The Syndicate

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con? He seems to have survived a lynch (seems because there are vote changing powers) and most of the ways that could happen (secrets) are bad guy secrets. The others are the deathly hallows. Mafia have probably made 2 kills so even if it was a hallow, there’s roughly a 2/5ths chance LC got the hallow by killing someone. For LC to be town, he’d have to have started with a hallow or gained it from a vig kill. The chance of LC starting with a hallow is about 1/8th. The chance of a hallow moving via kill is about 1/5th. Ergo, the odds of a lynch avoid power being in death eater secrets is much higher than LC being town...

Ebwop What’s the short version of the case on Long Con? He seems to have survived a lynch (seems because there are vote changing powers) and most of the ways that could happen (secrets) are bad guy secrets. The others are the deathly hallows. Mafia have probably made 2 kills so even if it was a hallow and LC killed to get it , there’s roughly a 2/5ths chance LC got the hallow by scum killing someone. For LC to be town, he’d have to have started with a hallow or gained it from a vig kill. The chance of LC starting with a hallow is about 1/8th. The chance of a hallow moving via kill is about 1/5th. More like 1/13th for it to move via vig kill. Ergo, the odds of a lynch avoid power being in death eater secrets is much higher than LC being town....

This all assumes the mafia doesn’t have extra kill powers in their secrets, which makes the odds worse for LC by cutting down on the hallow gain chance via vig kill. It also assumes LC stopped the lynch. Glor (who imo is confirmed town) is the person most likely to be lynched instead based on raw votes. Colin is a long shot for being the player who was actually lynched but iirc, he was 2 or 3 votes down from LC...

House cup results for Day/Night 3! Just like in the books, when you take the protagonists out of the equation, the winner is... Slytherin! Please pick one of the items in the first page, folks. @sprityo @Jackofhearts2005 @karavalenge @timmer Fuck yeah. Who wants to be my new roomie...

speedchuck https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c4/95/9a/c4959a6fb48e67ec6f06f81abe40f862.gif...

House cup results for Day/Night 3! Just like in the books, when you take the protagonists out of the equation, the winner is... Slytherin! Please pick one of the items in the first page, folks. @sprityo @Jackofhearts2005 @karavalenge @timmer Fuck yeah. Who wants to be my new roomie? maybe if you ever had anything remotely interesting to say ever I saw you mentioned me and I was like “I’ve scumread Nutella all game but it would be funny to be masoned with her for a phase.” Imagine my disappointment. :pout...

Also, Kyle is more fun than all of you...

Oh and INH...

Trading to SPEED wagon for now, I guess If you did that in a dream you could call it an REM speedwagon :sigh...

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] I just don’t think LC goes “Yeah, I saved Owner, who is my scum partner.” It reads like buddying...

@JaggedJimmyJay I just don’t think LC goes “Yeah, I saved Owner, who is my scum partner.” It reads like buddying. Can you quote the LC post where he said that? Or are you referring to the action? I’m refering to a specific post where Jimmy at mentioned me on the previous page...

But yeah, where he comes out and says it...

fyi INH could have been resurrected with the resurrection stone. If scum got possession of it then it effectively became a throwaway item they'd want to use straight away, since it's no use to them as all roles flip. No fuckery there. Unless he was resurrected by town in which case admit yourself to St. Mungo's ASAP. Resurrection stone doesn’t pure rez in the lore and this is the first rez. We can assume the rez is a one shot or has some sort of major drawback. Otherwise, why didn’t scum rez previously? Even if they just got it, why didn’t town rez previously...

fyi INH could have been resurrected with the resurrection stone. If scum got possession of it then it effectively became a throwaway item they'd want to use straight away, since it's no use to them as all roles flip. No fuckery there. Unless he was resurrected by town in which case admit yourself to St. Mungo's ASAP. Didn't the rezz say Phoenix? Maybe derp. Deathly hallows still awesome...

fyi INH could have been resurrected with the resurrection stone. If scum got possession of it then it effectively became a throwaway item they'd want to use straight away, since it's no use to them as all roles flip. No fuckery there. Unless he was resurrected by town in which case admit yourself to St. Mungo's ASAP. Resurrection stone doesn’t pure rez in the lore and this is the first rez. We can assume the rez is a one shot or has some sort of major drawback. Otherwise, why didn’t scum rez previously? Even if they just got it, why didn’t town rez previously? Why would scum rez Nova, though? I'm betting it was a one-shot pheonix thing. Same reason they’d rez INH. Wastes a day or a vig shot...

@ whoever rezzed INH I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed. And you're fucking nuts. Might not have been on purpose. [Crucio]: This spell will torture a student, roleblocking them for a night and forcing them to reveal what spells they know. [Imperio]: This spell will take control of a student’s actions. Any abilities they use will be redirected to a target of the user’s choice. The student being controlled cannot be forced to self-target. This ability can only be used once in the game on each player. It’s one thing to rez a scumbuddy and waste the town’s time. Meaner to force a townie to burn their one shot rez one a wolf...

Not sure if crying birds count as spells...

it got swept under the rug like an unwanted stepchild Poor Arry Potta...

poutanko - Town because she is sweet and innocent and has good scum interactions and because no scum would fake a cop check right now right? I have a theory that people's avatars affect other's views of their posts. Maybe I should change mine to a cute animal and see what happens :p I tried this once and it just made it worse....

This one time I caught Golden and this was a secret code for me to point back to later...

Let's work out the numbers so we can be more comfortable in our POE efforts. The game began with 24 players. Given typical ratios, that is likely to amount to 5 or 6 mafia members. Considering the presence if civilian vigilante(s) as we've seen it, the safer assumption is probably 6. If you accept that premise, we began at 18 vs. 6. Independents could influence this number, though I don't think there's been any evidence to indicate that one exists. It's not in the role list, and that could be interpreted as a bastardization or a host lie (as DDL has assured us is not the case). This isn't a slam dunk, but it's where I lean. So, 18 vs. 6. We have 16 players alive. 2 mafia members are dead, and one more is confirmed among us. That leaves us with a theoretical present ratio of 12 vs. 4. In a standard one-lynch/one-kill progression, that would leave us with three mislynches until a MyLo phase at 6 vs. 4. Obviously, that standard progression has not existed to this point and is highly unlikely to exist, so we will have to continually monitor the numbers as they adapt. If INH is successfully lynched today, we'd enter the night at 12 vs. 3. Worst-case scenario given what we've seen so far, three civilians are killed in the night phase (one by the mafia team, one by a vigilante, and one more by whatever other means ). That'd result in 9 vs. 3 the following day. That's the worst scenario (and it still isn't terrible). If a mafioso again dies during the night phase, the dynamic is much brighter for the civilians. We have a clear lead right now, but complacency will murder us if we allow it to. I think a good POE number to aspire to right now is then 6. If you can contain an entire mafia team of four members (including INH) within your six, then we should have enough mislynches available to win the game. It's a team effort though, so get to it. If anyone sees a flaw in my math or my logic, lemme have it. What about horocruxes? :...

#helpin...

This one time I caught Golden and this was a secret code for me to point back to later. Are you talking about Phenon? I've been thinking about that one. You’re ruining my secret code. :mad...

Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool? Jack - He was my first suspect based on a very minimal reading of his posts. I haven't abandoned that, but I also haven't followed up on it. I've not seen him doing anything alarming since my initial accusation, but I also haven't looked too closely. He'd be in the closest-to-neutral tier of scum reads on a hypothetical rainbow list. This is not a read. kara - I'm hardly aware that they're in the game. That's as much my fault as theirs, but they've been quiet so there's not much I can do here (unless, you know, I start to read things) This is not a read. Luna - Town read, but not comfortable taking her out of this pool. The way INH treated her did not strike me as a teammate interaction. Why aren't you comfortable? Mac - I never really can read Mac even though we've been playing together for 100 years. I haven't discerned any notable scum-tells in that time. Sometimes I pick up on town-tells though, and I haven't done that here. As I mentioned in my last post, he seems like someone to talk about after the current episode ends. This is not a read. Quin - Implicated in a night action dispute with speed. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two. This is not a read. speedchuck - Implicated in a night action dispute with quin. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two. I might favor speed's version of events if not for the other evidence (poutanko's ID) against him. This is not a read. sprit - Has sprit done anything yet? This is not a read. F-minus I have not read, so it makes sense that i wouldn't have reads. Flawless logic...

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe...

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe. Which way? Gently...

But yeah, exactly like Phenon. I don’t want it. Stay the course. This is fine...

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe. Which way? Gently. I don't know whether you're taking him out of the suspect pool or out of the townfirm pool. And why? Suspect pool. I was being cheeky about his flawless “I haven’t read” logic but seriously I think Sloonei is spewed good by LC flipping bad. Jay disagrees but whatever...

Obviously we need to lynch INH, Speedchuck and Quin for being in the wrong houses. We can just fast forward now...

Kara, Mac and (drumroll please) a deepwolf are my POE. :grin: Cause I never ever have only wolves in my POE. So why bother dig into my townleans at this point? Just wait for some flips...

The rest of my po...

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing). When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio? So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy? lots of linki which I will read now Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix. This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy...

If Quin is bad and was targeting his teammate Long Con, what ability might he have been using? Was this question ever answered? Additionally, I want to ask who we'd believe more in the Quin vs. Speedchuck split if poutanko's cop claim didn't exist? And also if there's a scenario in which all three of speedchuck, quin, and poutanko are town and telling the truth? If these are things that have already been discussed then you can just slap me and point me in the right direction. But I'm hung up on these reported night actions right now and feel like it's the most pressing issue we've got right now. I trust Quin more...

Civilians of Hogwarts. When the LC situation occurred, was your immediate reaction "LC's teammates would have tried to save him there."? Yeah but Speedchuck and Nutella so what do I know...

Also I’m simple af...

I want to hear from Jackoflurks2005. http://66.media.tumblr.com/00981b1c37af2943efcc8a9583f7419b/tumblr_od7ebnJoZG1ulp1mko1_500.gif...

Paying my bills rn, you guys o rly just paying your bills right just like a decent honest citizen right nothing shady at all, perfectly innocent stuff OR NOT :suspish: Boom scum caught. Bake em away, toys...

I liked that part where Sloonei, Mac and Jay were like “Aha! DH is bad!” and then Jay and Sloonei ditched the idea. That was a good read...

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] Why did you tell Kara who you think the vig is...

Speedchuck just confirmed himself as scum and that his teammate is in Slytherin. Nice! I don't get it. Please explain while I sit with my legs crossed and listen nice a nice boy. diricrawl cannot switch actions directed at one person to another, diricrawl can only switch actions directed at the owner to another. speedchuck has maintained the first, which is a mechanical impossibility. he also says his floo powder buddy is the reason for this, who can only be a Slytherin since they last won the house cup. Speed is saying his floobuddy (who is Kara because she already said so) dirticrawler switched herself with Speed. Therefore, someone who have had to misdirect Kara and him for his info to be wrong. He’s still bad but you misunderstood...

@speedchuck Why did you tell Kara who you think the vig is? So that when I die my knowledge lives on. I think Kara is town. :noble: Considered telling the rest of the thread, too. But Kara is in like every scum poe...

Not mine, Jack. And thanks for explaining for me about the Diridiri cuz Quin is confusing the heck out of me. I’m just here to try to break the game...

I wanna add a Sythern scarf to my avatar or these sunglasses to a Malfoy avatar. Btw [mention]G-Man[/mention] Dark Horse put out two The Thing miniseries but they weren’t that good. They were kinda okay. I still wanna know if (seriously don’t click this if you haven’t watched The Thing) Childs was a thing....

I know part of what makes it great is the not knowing....

I think you're all thinking way too hard about the whole Speedchuck/Quin fiasco. There's some overwhelming evidence that nobody is even considering. Speedchuck is always mafia...

Jackofhearts2005 - forgettable You take that back...

I think you're all thinking way too hard about the whole Speedchuck/Quin fiasco. There's some overwhelming evidence that nobody is even considering. Speedchuck is always mafia WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME I WAS MAFIA YOU MOUTH BREATHER WHEN I'LL KILL THE LOT OF YOU Megaman. :mafia...

For everyone: Has anyone given any thought to 'why Epi' for the kill? The thought did occur to me that there are a lot of consensus townies and Epi wasn't one of them...

I think you're all thinking way too hard about the whole Speedchuck/Quin fiasco. There's some overwhelming evidence that nobody is even considering. Speedchuck is always mafia WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME I WAS MAFIA YOU MOUTH BREATHER WHEN I'LL KILL THE LOT OF YOU Megaman. :mafia: :wall: I :wall: WAS :wall: A :wall: PRO :wall: TOWN :wall: ROLE :wall: I made a really convincing case and I still believe it...

:grin: what? Jay and Mac and DH DONT know everything? First I’ve heard of this statement They're distancing from each other obv. :shifty...