The Syndicate

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:07 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:01 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:40 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:36 pm I think speed has a reputation as a very formidable player and generally not someone you want to have on the other team. The scum in Fire Emblem killed rabbit N1 solely because they were afraid speed would replace in against them.

I have data I could use to vehemently argue with you, but I'll just take the high for now.

Oh man was it Speed they were worried about replacing in as a baddie?

I mean, you're overrated as hell but I wanna say Colin is right about this.

Spoiler: show

I keed. You're a damn good player.

It was me.

But I'm currently coming off of the third consecutive game that I've led townies to a loss. I don't know that I've ever been a dangerous town player, per se. Talkative, but not too dangerous. My best town performance was in Mountain Mafia... and I was third party.

though.

Anyway, I wouldn't bring that up except for Colin basically saying "why is speed not nightkilled yet" when I never get nightkilled early in mafia games.

And how many mafia victories?

I swear, you're an alternate universe me. I've felt it since our first game together. I cannot lose as scum or win as town lately.

Maybe high level vanillaish mafia is just scumsided.

Made my decision.

Ugh.

Sorry, @Speedchuck

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:09 am INH'S SHITLIST OF SUSPECTS THAT HE WILL BE LOOKING AT IN THE FUTURE:

Colin
Elo
JoH (i mean what the fuck)

Maybe you should have weighed in yesterday.

Coming into a game criticizing mislynches and other demoralizing behavior is a scum tell imo.

Was it four games in a row I saw scum do that when it brought it up in Mega Man? I was right on DH. Now it’s five games. Or is it six, INH?

INH’s iso is super short. He has opinions and he has reasoning for his opinions but they’re all pretty surface and mostly two phases old.

Like he’s after me for the Speedchuck burn but he’s made exactly one post about Speed, which was on Day 1. Him silently holding onto this read for three days and making a push based on it feels disingenuous.

His Colin case is okay. Like it’s not convincing but it feels okay. He (in his own words) “lazily” votes Colin again and that’s about it. He doesn’t really pursue the read.

I’d say maybe 60-70% chance INH is scum.

What does scum want to do in this game? Not get burned. So scum can’t be suspect but scum also doesn’t want to be top town to avoid questions of “why is X not dead yet?”

Now, normal scum doesn’t have to worry about the later unless they bus and there are no other consensus townies. In this game, scum can accidentally lynch a partner....which might not actually make them townread.

But if it did, it would be bad. Does scum want to avoid pushing their suspects too hard? Avoid looking too pure?

INH kinda threads the needle between trying and not trying. But that’s probably not that far off typical INH behavior.

Probably no perspective read to be had here.

I hope there’s just one scum. That would be funny.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:02 pm Then's a lot a words to arrive at "Probably no read here"

Yeah, well, that’s what happens when you don’t come up with a conclusion before you start writing a paper.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:29 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:32 pm

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:09 am INH'S SHITLIST OF SUSPECTS THAT HE WILL BE LOOKING AT IN THE FUTURE:

Colin
Elo
JoH (i mean what the fuck)

Maybe you should have weighed in yesterday.

Coming into a game criticizing mislynches and other demoralizing behavior is a scum tell imo.

Was it four games in a row I saw scum do that when it brought it up in Mega Man? I was right on DH. Now it’s five games. Or is it six, INH?

So people criticizing your decision is "demoralizing behavior?" You're the one who burned Speedchuck, and you're the sole person responsible. You can either own that or not.

I'm sorry that I was busy and unable to talk you out of a dumb decision that you privately made. You merely listed Speed in a post, before saying that you doubt he would want to kill Poutanko. Apologies that I wasn't able to infer that Speed was the person you wanted to kill, and that I wasn't able to clear my schedule yesterday to mount a passionate defense.

Nonconstructive criticism can be demoralizing in purpose or side effect (luckily, I’m +2 to morale checks). You didn’t say why the decision was bad or what to do instead.

You might have missed it but there was an actual case on Speedchuck and he had the most votes.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:17 pm Eloh -

Assume a few things here, namely:

1. I'm a civ
2. I'm not going to torch you today
3. I'm not going to torch INH solely because his 16 posts contain an anomalous amount of participation in y our view.

Given those ideas to play around with, explain to me who you want me to torch. You tunneled on Luna and biffed. Tunneling on me this late in the game, particularly when I have the flamethrower, is just not conducive to a civilian win.

Reverse psychology?

Bleh.

6 players left. Probably 5 in the morning. There have got to be at least 2 scum. Possibly, we end up with 2 townies, 3 scum and the game continues.

This is maybe counterproductive but if I have to pick one other townie out of the pool, I’m picking DH. If I pick a second, it’s.....TH or Colin. (Way to avoid the question, me.)

Without handing the scum strategy to them on a plate, if scum get the flamethrower, town probably loses.

I can’t really think of a way to coordinate the town votes without just putting them on the player the mafia kills so....give me the flamethrower and mafia don’t kill me?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:46 pm So how is this game not over?

Oh. I guess my math is wrong then. Good.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:22 pm 4-3 or 3-3 its still not looking great fam.

Just based on the numbers, Wilgy is probably bad and I think we should have an okay chance of sorting some other scum/townies.

Scum probably wins but we’ve got a half a fighting chance.

Assuming the game doesn’t just end of course.

Torch DDL or INH.

With Colin human and Wilgy probably human via only one missed kill and probably more than 2 baddies, either DH or TH ought to be scum.

The Colin kill is weird. Was he attacked for his reads or because scum wanted to confirm a partner?

I’ve already given my reasons for why INH is bad.

Upon ISOing DDL, he doesn’t look that traditionally bad but this isn’t a traditional game. So forget interactive cause bad DDL wouldn’t know his partners. DDL has basically three important posts in terms of reads. 1) He calls Sprityo I’m not hunting 2) He gives a bunch of reads several days later 3) He says he feels Jack/INH are t/t but it’s hard to outright say that cause numbers. And that’s pretty much it.

In the end, I don’t see the townie drive to catch scum as much as the drive to survive. Like he was going to self vote to avoid Sprityo torching. Yesterday, he wondered why the game wasn’t over. His attitude is one of a sker, not a townie.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:21 pm Torch DDL or INH, but you think TH is scum?

Depends on the numbers. Depends if I’m wrong on you or Wilgy.

Like with my scum number guess, he’s below the t/s line and should be scum. But he’s the first person below the line. Better to torch someone at the bottom of the list esp given I never call out the whole mafia correctly at lylo.

Or maybe there are only two things and my t/s line is in the wrong spot.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:31 pm "When you've eliminated the impossible, whatever remains - however improbable, must be the truth" - Sherlock Holmes

What if you have a lot of possible remaining scenarios?

ISOing TH. He feels loose af. TH usually feels loose af. Is he loose af while scum? This, I do not know.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:29 pm DDL's idea of self-voting to be spared from sprityo's smiting was cheeky enough to not raise alarm bells

But then he figured out self-voting wasn't allowed so he went with a random, which is not cheeky enough to not raise alarm bells

He's probably a Thing

I like this post, probably his first real accusation and I tend to agree. Frustratingly, it doesn’t separate him from DDL and him giving up this line of inquiry later (if he does) doesn’t mean teammate behavior cause a scum TH wouldn’t know if DDL was on his team probably.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:23 pm Jack seems quieter than usual so far, idk if it means anything

First post about his current top suspect. Posting to check for progression.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:35 pm I’m not bad, I’m bad at Mafia.

God so relatable.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:57 pm Jackofhearts2005: A PowerPoint Presentation

I love the style and admittedly, I had given TH very little to work with here but the case is pretty bare bones.

So far the progression is “Joh hasn’t been around much does that mean anything?” -> “Joh hasn’t been around much/word choice read means he is probably bad.”

It’s stretchy but there was an assignment to case someone so it’s not necessarily a bad stretchy. Let’s see where the progression goes.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:36 pm After all of todays events I still feel the most sure about my vote for jackypoo

No one's cased the turnip yet

I take that as a positive sign that I'm getting the next crack at the flamethrower

Now, Jack is top scumreadvwithout further discussion of Jack.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:58 pm I didn't consider sprityo torching Mac specifically until Jack brought it up just now. That's an intriguing angle Mac's instincts are the stuff of folklore, they've written songs about it

Likes Jack’s (ultimately wrong) Sprityo case.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:45 pm I mean right now I'm looking for thoughts on sprityo. I think Jack brought up a good point about a scum sprit abusing the general dislike of inactives as an excuse to torch Mac early.

Jack could get torched for playing on the fringes but I want to give him a little leash and see what he does with it

I've got a few town reads that won't likely face the napalm end of this thing

If there's another popular candidate I'll put some pressure on them, I might try to rattle Chuck's cage a bit

I skipped a post that’s similar to this one.

Now, Jack is nullish due to liking my Sprityo case. Going to give Jack a chance, as it were.

TH supports my Speedchuck case which is also ultimately wrong. Then comes in with this. Don’t know why he suspects me cause the main point (Jack is not pursuing suspects like I see townie Jack do) doesn’t really apply when my case on my suspect caused the last two lynches.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:48 pm Voting jack for now but I'ma consider DH's analysis in the morning

Also, by now, TH has called out a lot of townreads (Eloh, Luna, Quin....one I forgot). Sker probably doesn’t fight against consensus like this, right?

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:14 pm Reason I'm voting Jack is cuz I felt like he half-assed yesterday by his own standards. I watched Jack hunt speedchuck down like a bloodhound in Mega Man. To see him sort of nonchalantly dispatch him here rings false. There was fire but no fuel

I choose to not respond to it at the time cause I didn’t see anyone really agreeing and figured I could persuade him if he got the flamethrower.

I questioned Speed but Speed’s answers were shrugs. Speed gave lots of explanation in MM. so I talked a lot about that. Here, Speed was just kinda “I didn’t think it could be lylo and you said you had a plan” which was not really believable. I said so. I got little back and in the end, Speed burned.

The key consideration is “Is this suspicion real?”

I tend to think “yes” because it makes sense, even if it’s wrong. TH has not jumped on easy trains. He’s townread suspicious people that turned out to be town.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:45 pm Anyways speedchuck is gonna have to do a better job of convincing me that his thought process for voting Jack makes a lick of sense

Related question for TH: Did he?

And then there’s 5 more posts that are basically “Jack is probably mafia” which kinda undermines the whole “townie mindset” thing.

TH, respond to me kk.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:10 pm Good work/crunch here Jack. Lot of solid points.

If you’re scum, just torch me now. I’m sick of being on the plate of wolves who like to play with their food.

[mention]DharmaHelper[/mention]

Name your scumteams if there are 2 things and if there are 3.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:22 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:19 pm @DharmaHelper

Name your scumteams if there are 2 things and if there are 3.

If there are 2? DDL/TH

If there are 3? DDL/TH/Wilgy

That’s pretty unexpected.

Why do you think INH is town?

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:24 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:10 pm And then there’s 5 more posts that are basically “Jack is probably mafia” which kinda undermines the whole “townie mindset” thing.

TH, respond to me kk.

Thank you for the mountain of notifications And thanks for taking the time to case me instead of "I can't read TH so I won't even bother", which is what I usually get tbh.

I admit I've tunneled you the last few phases but part of that is because I wanted to see you interact with my suspicion of you, which you hadn't really done. My read on you hasn't developed much because you haven't developed much. I've seen you town hard in a few games and this hadn't looked much like that to me.

But I am towning hard. You believed me that Sprityo and Speedchuck were bad, even though you suspected me, right?

What’s more town Jack than driving lynches on mostly the wrong players?

The question about Speedchuck is important.

Ftn then. Imma go be a harry wizard for a bit.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:01 pm Hey Jack. Let's play a game.

What would you say the defining difference is between your civ and scum playing/posting strategies?

When I’m scum, I have a more detailed plan.

As town, I start with a bunch of null reads and I try to sort them. Player A feels town. Player B started a train on a scum player and tried hard to save a town player from lynch. Player C is not voting their scumreads. Player D is not interested in hunting. Player E says they suspect player D but they keep ultimately voting elsewhere when it really matters. Lynch the scumreads. Listen to the townreads and try to keep them from getting lynch. Hope Jay doesn’t go after me and knock me over before I really get going. Shitpost. As EOG appoaches, try to find w/w and w/t or t/t groups and do ISOs now that it’s worthwhile. Hope I’m right. Rely on charisma and effort to never be lynched.

When I’m scum, I try to replicate my town game. I’m more likely to selectively ignore shit about ne, though I still do this as town. I’m more likely to take a strong stance on competing t/t wagons. But there’s always a plan. A list of most to least mislynchable townies. A list of townies I can ignore/buddy vs ones I must kill. Reasons to mislynch. Reasons to defend. An internal calculation of when I must bus and when I cannot. At EOD, there’s an order. Mislynch A, kill B, mislynch C, kill D.

As scum, I can have a plan because I know exactly what has to be done. As town, I can be wrong which means going back to the drawing board.

Does this help? I kinda just like talking about myself regardless.

At EOG*, there’s an orde

order*

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:46 pm In seriousness, I've town-read INH all game and he's not given me any reason to shift it.

Convince me, yo.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:00 pm (although when he refers to himself in the third person it creeps me out.)

I developed this habit during champs since you’d get player A quoting player B quoting player C in these long chains and lose track of who “me” is. Then you’d have to scroll to the top and then back down. TH is only talking about me in these posts if you’re me. He’s talking about Jack no matter who you are.

But, here on Day 6, with a potential LYLO, [TH] looks fairly insincere.

Yeah, maybe. He tunneled me when we were both protown aligned in Greece and it didn’t look that different from this.

[mention]Turnip Head[/mention]

Same question. What’s the biggest difference between town you and scum you?

Wilgy was around D0 and D4.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:52 pm Wilgy was around D0 and D4.

That is, if there are 3 scum, Wilgy can submit kills on N1 and N4.

If there are 2 scum, Wilgy misses the kill N2, makes the kill N4 and then hasn’t been called to make a third kill yet.

I don’t actually see a reason to townread Wilgy based on mafia kills happening. Once again, stuck at probably lylo with mystery alignment Wilgy.

I have a lot more Thing gifs so let’s try to get scum today.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:01 am no ones actually assimilated, the host is just doing the kills at night

My message to Gman for my vote was like “There are no things but just in case vote x for flamethrower.”