The Syndicate

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:01 pm
Rej wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:29 pm wait, Epignosis is also playing?

just looked at Long Con. He went like -> interaction with JJJ/push against Dragomir -> distancing(?)
@Long Con did you distance yourself there?
I don't recall any distancing from Long Con.

Please give me a read on absolutely anybody not named Dragomir.

Rej wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:03 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:02 pm [VOTE: Long Con] aubergine
why that fast move?

I'm never lynching Dragomir today.

bleh [VOTE: Rej] aubergine

Fayt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:04 pm Perhaps I've said it wrong. I just didn't think you guys were both cats if the event Dragomir flips scum.

Right. My point is that this doesn't tell me what you actually think of either Dragomir or myself independently of one another.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:06 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:05 pm bleh [VOTE: Rej] aubergine
But Michelle says Rej is Civ.

Is this something that is important to you?

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:05 pm I think Fayt is Civ. I like that point about calling me a "gamble". Sounds like subconscious baddie-speak for "It's going to be a Civ lynch".

No.

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:05 pm I think Fayt is Civ. I like that point about calling me a "gamble". Sounds like subconscious baddie-speak for "It's going to be a Civ lynch".

Long Con encourages the Rej wagon right along while he keeps himself cozy on the Dragomir wagon. The thing about "subconscious baddie-speak" just looks like b/s.

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:09 pm tomorow morning like i already said

This day phase ends in 12 minutes.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:11 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:10 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:05 pm I think Fayt is Civ. I like that point about calling me a "gamble". Sounds like subconscious baddie-speak for "It's going to be a Civ lynch".
Long Con encourages the Rej wagon right along while he keeps himself cozy on the Dragomir wagon. The thing about "subconscious baddie-speak" just looks like b/s.
Where did I encourage the Rej wagon?

Rej said the gamble thing which you just pooped on.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:14 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:11 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:11 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:10 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:05 pm I think Fayt is Civ. I like that point about calling me a "gamble". Sounds like subconscious baddie-speak for "It's going to be a Civ lynch".
Long Con encourages the Rej wagon right along while he keeps himself cozy on the Dragomir wagon. The thing about "subconscious baddie-speak" just looks like b/s.
Where did I encourage the Rej wagon?
Rej said the gamble thing which you just pooped on.
Oh, that was Rej? I was kind of skimming.

Clearly.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:15 pm I'll vote Rej.

What is Dragomir's alignment?

[mention]Rej[/mention] please say what you have against LC as quickly as possible. We're very short on time.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:15 pm I'll vote Rej.

Do you find Rej suspicious?

Rej could have saved himself all day by voting Dragomir. Instead he opted to push this Long Con wagon, which until three minutes ago was an unlikely enterprise for survival.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:19 pm I don't think I'm an arsonist. I just vote for who I think is suspicious. Dragomir is still suspicious to me. Rej as well. I've said why.

Self-preservation not relevant?

k well we'll see.

Interactions: Rej and Dom

Rej

Spoiler: show

Blank chatter, don't care.

Spoiler: show

Rej stood in Dom's camp here (albeit with the little "But I ask" addendum at the end, doesn't mean a lot to me). That Rej specifically declared an intention to ISO Dom and then came back saying he didn't feel the need anymore, Dom just looks townish -- I think that is a decent look for Dom. If a mafioso is trying to prop up a teammate, I kind of doubt it takes this shape. Instead of projecting an ISO and then saying nevermind, they just produce the ISO (or some concrete post) and provide evidence to support the town read.

~~~

Dom

Spoiler: show

Context clues suggest that Dom is referring to TH's Rej mafia read with "half of this post". He expands on that himself; the stance is distinctly anti-Rej.

Spoiler: show

Further prodding.

~~~

Conclusion: What exists here is mostly in Dom's favor I think, if not necessarily substantive. One issue that Dom should speak to lies with his vote, which remained on Dragomir as he made his vocal motions against Rej. Dom's last post was about 6 hours before the deadline, so keep in mind that he wasn't around for the late developments.

Gun to my head, he's a dog.

Interactions: Rej and Dragomir

Rej

Spoiler: show

We start with the obvious post. This screams that Dragomir is a dog. Rej said nothing about him at all during the earliest portion of the game while many of us were hounding Dragomir. Eventually he interjected with this thing, and it's particularly the "a bit forced by JJJ and nova" thing that gives it away I think. Rej was pre-emptively distancing himself from an errant mislynch wagon and setting up blame for nova and I. More of that.

Spoiler: show

Buddy up on the basis of Day 1 pressure and establish a pocket. Still good for Dragomir.

Spoiler: show

Rej wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:40 pm First:

The Dragomir case

Dragomir imho really plays off, I agree once to novas point that Dragomir is basically powering through. Drago comes off a bit offminded (if that's a word). I used so many off's sometimes I could think of an "uff". Drago only dared to counterpush JJJ and even when I placed a vote on JJJ Drago did not try to safe his ass. Some points that make it hard for me to read Drago, and if he is town he often gets himself read easily. That's also why Dragomir sometimes is a good N1 kill if there is no protection around him.

All in all Dragomir feels like he is hiding something, could also be anything tbh. He is unclear to me and indeed partially scummy for my taste.

@JaggedJimmyJay
this is my first answer to you and bringing forward my concern about Dragomir to Dragomir, so he can imply these points in his defense.

I also don't know anything about Long Con in this case. Dragomir likes to attack randomly.

About you, I was a bit harsh on you and since I don't know your scumplay I am cautious about everything, but I think we are fine if we decide to move on and expand our reads at that point.

about Mac, I must honestly say he started off as civillian and keeps it. He has a strong opinion and underlines it, even if shortly and he makes it hard to read him deeper, but only on a superficial point of view. He is buddying Fayt against Dragomir and me.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:27 pm
Dragomir wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:21 pm
Fayt wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:34 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:36 pm I thought Fayt was part of the recent MU wave but they're not lol
Sup Starlight

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:30 pm We already have something of substance to talk about, people. If you haven't already piped in, I want to know what y'all think of Dragomir or anything related to the conversation surrounding Dragomir.
So for the dragomir thing, I might be late on this because I haven't had a chance to reply until now. There are things I'm unsure of and this is off of first impressions but I do lean scum on him. As reasons stated above but also because of Dragomir not wanting to do first impressions but then jump onto another target (i.e. LC) so he must think of something about LC that strikes him as odd or did he just drop the LC name to get people off of his back.

Secondly, I don't think Dragomir and JJJ are bussing each other. If they are then I'm definitely fooled. If Dragomir turns out to be scum, I find Jay as town and vice versa. However, there is a chance they could both be town but I don't think both would be scum.
Fake. Super fake. Fayt is bad.
"I do lean scum on him". She is emphasising "I do" as opposed to just "I lean". She is responding someone who does not. There is only one person who has actively said that they do not and that is Rej. This is consequentially distancing of Rej.

The second paragraph spews both Jay and Drago as town.
This for example is literal stuff, like almost philosophy about grammar and it's true meaning behind it. I mean wtf at this point. Maybe I am to noobish for this shit, but I clearly didn't distance myself. I rather tried to engage and find something out for myself.
Like right now. You dissect Fayts wording, at this point it wasn't really needed but you used it to push Dragomir.

Okay either Drago is scum and you did a lucky push against Dragomir, coordinated with @Fayt. Or you are scum that really searched for an asspull to push Dragomir and help building a wagon on him.

I don't know what to think because of your generall strong towny appeareance...but I feel there was something off in your play or just very well coordinated.

I think more ISO on Mac is not needed. I wanna look into Dom vs Drago but first I will play Overwatch with a friend. So I will still track you guys until EoD.

When Rej himself began to take more heat, he 180ed his take on Dragomir. He needed that counterwagon to survive, as he believed at the time, and reverted to it. Good for Dragomir.

I'm going to skip some things. The trend is clear.

~~~

Dragomir

Spoiler: show

Dragomir's initial response to the heat on Rej was to defend him. I am not especially bothered here given the specific nature of the accusation. The "I don't understand the case" angle that Turnip Head first brought out is one that seems at face value simplistic and perhaps unfounded without a better understanding of TH himself and the genuine capacity to collect mafia hits on the basis of linguistic cues. Dragomir is the type to truly find this perplexing, wrong as he may have been.

Spoiler: show

Brazen display if a teammate. Shrug.

Spoiler: show

This right here is why JaggedJimmyJay gives fatherly lectures. Dragomir pledged to try to articulate some undefined read on Rej and never did. At face value, that's not great. I am not inclined to string Dragomir up for this, but he'll need to answer for it anyway.

~~~

Conclusion: Overall, I doubt Dragomir was Rej's teammate. Rej's own posts speak more loudly to that than Dragomir's do.

Interactions: Rej and Epignosis

Rej

Spoiler: show

Okay.

Spoiler: show

Small point, but I think comments like this are more likely to be jabs at lower contributors with intent to capitalize (i.e. decent look for Epignosis).

~~~

Epignosis

Spoiler: show

I believe Epi needed to revisit his teammate TSP in Persona 5 too.

Spoiler: show

Indirectly relevant. Epignosis was aware of Rej, but I've no evidence of anything beyond awareness.

~~~

Conclusion: Epignosis was gone for most of the late portion of the phase, so he couldn't impact any of that drama. Overall I would anticipate that Epi would do something with his teammate. Even in Persona 5 after saying he'd need to revisit TSP, he did so and provided a civilian read. In this case the read on Rej remained blank. I cannot award considerable credit for that, but at the least I don't think it hurts Epi's standing.

Interactions: Rej and Fayt

Rej

Spoiler: show

Okay. By this point Fayt had made four posts, two of which were of substance -- this clarifies from a random "ok" read on someone with one empty post or somate.

Spoiler: show

Rej wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:40 pm First:

The Dragomir case

Dragomir imho really plays off, I agree once to novas point that Dragomir is basically powering through. Drago comes off a bit offminded (if that's a word). I used so many off's sometimes I could think of an "uff". Drago only dared to counterpush JJJ and even when I placed a vote on JJJ Drago did not try to safe his ass. Some points that make it hard for me to read Drago, and if he is town he often gets himself read easily. That's also why Dragomir sometimes is a good N1 kill if there is no protection around him.

All in all Dragomir feels like he is hiding something, could also be anything tbh. He is unclear to me and indeed partially scummy for my taste.

JaggedJimmyJay
this is my first answer to you and bringing forward my concern about Dragomir to Dragomir, so he can imply these points in his defense.

I also don't know anything about Long Con in this case. Dragomir likes to attack randomly.

About you, I was a bit harsh on you and since I don't know your scumplay I am cautious about everything, but I think we are fine if we decide to move on and expand our reads at that point.

about Mac, I must honestly say he started off as civillian and keeps it. He has a strong opinion and underlines it, even if shortly and he makes it hard to read him deeper, but only on a superficial point of view. He is buddying Fayt against Dragomir and me.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:27 pm
Dragomir wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:21 pm
Fayt wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:34 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:36 pm I thought Fayt was part of the recent MU wave but they're not lol
Sup Starlight

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:30 pm We already have something of substance to talk about, people. If you haven't already piped in, I want to know what y'all think of Dragomir or anything related to the conversation surrounding Dragomir.
So for the dragomir thing, I might be late on this because I haven't had a chance to reply until now. There are things I'm unsure of and this is off of first impressions but I do lean scum on him. As reasons stated above but also because of Dragomir not wanting to do first impressions but then jump onto another target (i.e. LC) so he must think of something about LC that strikes him as odd or did he just drop the LC name to get people off of his back.

Secondly, I don't think Dragomir and JJJ are bussing each other. If they are then I'm definitely fooled. If Dragomir turns out to be scum, I find Jay as town and vice versa. However, there is a chance they could both be town but I don't think both would be scum.
Fake. Super fake. Fayt is bad.
"I do lean scum on him". She is emphasising "I do" as opposed to just "I lean". She is responding someone who does not. There is only one person who has actively said that they do not and that is Rej. This is consequentially distancing of Rej.

The second paragraph spews both Jay and Drago as town.
This for example is literal stuff, like almost philosophy about grammar and it's true meaning behind it. I mean wtf at this point. Maybe I am to noobish for this shit, but I clearly didn't distance myself. I rather tried to engage and find something out for myself.
Like right now. You dissect Fayts wording, at this point it wasn't really needed but you used it to push Dragomir.

Okay either Drago is scum and you did a lucky push against Dragomir, coordinated with Fayt. Or you are scum that really searched for an asspull to push Dragomir and help building a wagon on him.

I don't know what to think because of your generall strong towny appeareance...but I feel there was something off in your play or just very well coordinated.

I think more ISO on Mac is not needed. I wanna look into Dom vs Drago but first I will play Overwatch with a friend. So I will still track you guys until EoD.

Rej posts like this one confuse me even now after his death, so I welcome all interpretations. The first highlight there shows Rej accusing Mac of buddying Fayt -- an accusation which only lands if Fayt is a civilian. This can have the dual function of gaining Fayt's support and lessening the influence of Mac (one of his accusers).

The second highlight instead paints Fayt as a potential coordinator which Mac, based upon some premise that is not readily clear to me. This is likely all spam meant to take the place of reads, and I am not inclined to judge Fayt on the basis of the second thing.

Spoiler: show

For the third time, Fayt is mentioned only when tacked alongside Mac. The consistency of this is a bit bothersome to me. A trend emerges in which Rej ties Mac to Fayt, which can be profitable to his team if either of them is lynched (assuming the link is not both of his teammates). If Fayt is lynched and flips mafia, Rej has set up Mac for an accusation. If Mac is lynched and flips civilian, it clears Fayt of this connection. In that regard I see room for trouble.

~~~

Fayt

Spoiler: show

Mac may have made a pretty brilliant catch here. Mac had asserted, based upon a somewhat ~out there~ (at least by surface appearance), that Fayt had distanced herself from Rej in her language against Dragomir. Then when faced with this accusation, she rejected the assertion and the logic underlying it -- but still voiced suspicion of Rej. Highlighted.

Then view the next portion, from the same post. Fayt gave Dragomir more crap, and in the process they insinuated that he and Rej had been soft-defending one another. They forced a link between the two, and it smells like a setup to me.

Spoiler: show

This is, to be fair, valid. The vote came 18 minutes prior to the deadline however, so I'm inclined to temper any credit. By this point if there's to be a bus then the decision has been made.

~~~

Conclusion: I think there's a compelling argument that Fayt is Rej's teammate.

Interactions: Rej and Long Con

Rej

Spoiler: show

Did Long Con distance from himself?

Spoiler: show

This vote came a moment before I placed a late vote on Dragomir -- I was trying to bait Rej with my own vote, but as it happens he was "baited" to the Long Con wagon first. I don't see many worlds here where Long Con is not a civilian.

> Two wagons: Rej and Dragomir
> A third wagon slowly emerges: Long Con
> Rej never votes Dragomir
> Rej votes Long Con when the wagon becomes viable

Whatever Dragomir's alignment, I highly doubt Rej specifically waits for this opportunity to vote for his own teammate.

~~~

Long Con

Spoiler: show

Long Con's skimming error here was probably real. As such, he wasn't paying close attention to the things that Rej specifically was saying. That's nice for him.

~~~

Conclusion: I doubt Long Con is teamed with Rej.

Interactions: Rej and MacDougall

Rej

Spoiler: show

Okay.

Spoiler: show

Okay.

Spoiler: show

Okay.

Spoiler: show

Yawn.

Spoiler: show

Mac is both a civilian and buddying Fayt.

I think there might be some language/lingo barrier at work here. Whatever, none of this matters to me.

Spoiler: show

Standard fake hunting here. Rej's laborious effort to interpret Mac's posts every which way could be good for Mac; he has no clue what he's talking about. If Mac is in his BTSC, this confusion isn't as likely.

Spoiler: show

Then this whole thing. Rej seems to be making misguided efforts to discredit and suspect one of the people opposing him in the thread -- positive for Mac.

~~~

MacDougall

Spoiler: show

Looks legit.

Spoiler: show

Yup.

Spoiler: show

I could say here that Mac's confidence against Rej, strong enough to forge a connection between he and Fayt in this manner, is itself TMI. That feels like a reach at this point.

~~~

Conclusion: I don't think Mac is a major candidate to be Rej's teammate.

Interactions: Rej and Michelle

Rej

Spoiler: show

Okay.

Rather random name to be listed first here.

Spoiler: show

Bleh. Michelle is mentioned here in a manner which invites vague shade, but only by association to sprityo. That association is nigh meaningless, and I don't care for this.

Spoiler: show

Rej felt the need to jump back and qualify this. "Yes I said okay about them before, but but but" -- Kinda yuck.

Spoiler: show

The highlighed sentence is a mess. The "And I threw soft suspicion on Michelle and sprityo" thing at first looks entirely irrelevant to the premise of the rest of it -- that he has votes and those votes are opportunistic. This brings to light why that bit may be featured though. Rej wants credit for beefing with those two "softly", and moreover he wants the people voting for him to look bad by extension with respect to those two. By attacking Rej they were implicitly defending Michelle/sprityo. Another moment I don't like.

Spoiler: show

Quite the wet fart at this point.

Spoiler: show

"torn"

"pressure vote"

Meh.

The highlighted bit would be relatively creative mafia-mafia chatter at least. That doesn't mean a lot to me, but it's something.

~~~

Michelle

Spoiler: show

This exists.

Spoiler: show

Welp this is an egg-on-face post. It happens to the best of us. I don't care for it though. An "@" is an extremely frivolous reason to exonerate a player.

Spoiler: show

Eh.

Spoiler: show

This is at least quite brazen -- it came 6 minutes prior to the deadline and helped to make the Long Con wagon a viable counter. By the numbers it's bad. By tone I actually don't find myself that disturbed.

~~~

Conclusion: Michelle has a lot to answer for. It's not difficult to see her as a cat. I am not completely convinced of this, but she's certainly a suspect.

Interactions: Rej and novaselinenever

Rej

Spoiler: show

Easy read, don't really care.

Spoiler: show

Okay.

Spoiler: show

Yellow: probably a generic attempt to smear us both for our Dragomir suspicions

Orange: Translation: "I doubt I can make a good case on nova, so screw it"

Good looks.

~~~

novaselinenever

Spoiler: show

Werd.

Spoiler: show

Looks legit.

~~~

Conclusion: I don't think this stuff looks like distancing or bussing. nova is unlikely to be a cat.

Interactions: Rej and nutella

Rej

Spoiler: show

A bit of a deflection from my nutella vote.

Spoiler: show

Civilian stance on nutella without much expansion.

~~~

nutella

Spoiler: show

Fine.

Spoiler: show

I share the general confusion with what Rej was trying to say, so this resonates.

Spoiler: show

Resonating again. Suspicion of Rej was easy to generate I think, but difficult to qualify and substantiate. Differentiating between "this guy straight up makes no sense" and "I don't think I am understanding the message this guy wants to convey" isn't easy. General suspicion of some sort without confidence mirrors my own feelings much of Day 1.

Spoiler: show

This foundation, the potential w/w read on LC and Rej, is an important one when assessing nutella. Her vote landed on Long Con in the end, the counterwagon, and at face value it's easy for any of us to raise and wag the index finger. She suspected both of them, and both of them in concert.

Spoiler: show

Insert the egg on my own face. I don't fault nutella for following this thread, and I don't get the impression she is just jumping on board so she can shit in my Corn Flakes later about it if LC flips civilian. If she's bad it's a straight up save effort, and that's something y'all will have to assess for yourselves.

~~~

Conclusion: By the numbers, there is a glaring reason to suspect nutella -- the Long Con vote. The same can be said of me and two other people. What is most important to me in this review is that I can follow nutella along her journey to that destination and understand it. My own journey was quite similar. Gun to my head she's not a cat.

Interactions: Rej and speedchuck

Rej

Spoiler: show

There's not much here. One half-shade thing about one vote, and idle chatter about Michelle. Whatever.

~~~

speedchuck

Spoiler: show

I don't really mind this, frankly.

Spoiler: show

Nice little touch here, I think. speedchuck voted Rej over Dragomir, and when pressed his primary reason was "because not Dragomir". If speedchuck is distancing from or bussing Rej, this isn't the clearest means of claiming that credit. Instead I find it easier to believe that speedchuck simply suspected Rej more than he suspected Dragomir. So good.

Spoiler: show

I gave speedchuck an avenue here that he could have taken to give Rej a break. speedchuck kind of softened in his words, but his vote remained planted. So I wouldn't say he took advantage of that avenue.

Spoiler: show

Interesting.

Spoiler: show

Again when given an avenue to bail on the Rej wagon, this time from Michelle, speedchuck didn't move the vote. Cool beans.

~~~

Conclusion: I think speedchuck looks fine.

Interactions: Rej and sprityo

Rej

Spoiler: show

Okay.

sprityo is another standout name on this list. At no point in this game has he done anything. Rej included him anyway with a positive grade.

Spoiler: show

I prodded Rej about that. This was his response. It's a bunch of goofy fake stuff and means little to me to make sprityo look better or worse.

Spoiler: show

I return to this thing, where Rej hooks Michelle and sprityo together for pretty much no reason. I don't care for it for the same reasons I didn't care for it in the Michelle review. I think there's a better-than-random chance one of the two is a teammate.

Spoiler: show

Again, same deal. Refer to the Michelle review for details.

Spoiler: show

They are mentioned together in nearly every instance.

~~~

sprityo

Nothing.

~~~

Conclusion: sprityo is a viable candidate to be a cat.

Interactions: Rej and TonyStarkPrime

Rej

Spoiler: show

Pretty much.

~~~

TonyStarkPrime

Spoiler: show

I'm just surprised I have something to talk about on both sides. This is a non-thing. It seems slightly jokey from TSP, but that it's about Rej of all people is still something to take note of. Okay.

~~~

Conclusion: I have no reason to exonerate TonyStarkPrime. He is a cat candidate. A catidate.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:41 pm I clicked to unlock the thread but it didn't work for some reason. That's why only Jay is posting. APologies.

My bad gang. If I'd have noticed I'd have waited.

Interactions: Rej and Turnip Head -- he's dead but whatever here you go

Rej

Spoiler: show

This came after TH had already called Rej a cat. Rej never acknowledged that, not even here when he griped about TH's lack of reads. This looks like a spam read forced onto a low poster.

~~~

Turnip Head

Spoiler: show

Two firsts. Turnip Head's first reads, and the first person to beef with Rej over this. I doubt TH, as Rej's teammate, decides he's going to do nothing for a while and then randomly drop in and crap on his head.

~~~

Conclusion: I doubt Turnip Head is a cat.

Dragomir
Long Con
novaselinenever
TonyStarkPrime

MacDougall
speedchuck

Dom
nutella

Epignosis

Michelle
sprityo

Fayt

[VOTE: Fayt] aubergine

I know that's a whole pile of words, and upon seeing it you may be inclined to groan or eyeroll or whatever. I ask that y'all please just read it though. If nothing else, read only the conclusions, and when your interest is piqued read more.

I solved the game with these in Persona 5 on Night 1 and only a few people bothered to read or engage the stuff at all. I feel pretty damned good about these reads again. Y'all may disagree with something. I need to know if and what.

Mad props to [mention]Turnip Head[/mention], who may have done more with 8 posts than anyone in the history of Mafia.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:57 pm I'll look over the details later, just hitting the summary right now due to work and other mafia.

Looks reasonable, but TSP should be lower in the rainbow at the end.

I don't blame you for thinking so. I don't see any universe where TSP is a mafioso and only makes two posts Day 1.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:02 pm i will answer in the morning more detailed. Reading not all posts wasn't helpful at all.
I am glad for the cat lynch because i have now a strong feeling the CV on Long Con is for a villager (sorry for my vote i really misread Rej) and so we have a base to work with.

I had at the last post of Rej a moment of block and i was like this is TMI, but because i knew is Eod and on phone i don't have speed i was a frozen villager :/

Also i am a dog. I can only prove my towniness by my flip so if you really need it you can punish me for bad reads. I explained at Eod i didn't know when the day started and this was silly because i took as reference the day 0 and i thought the following night has 24 hours. Hence i didn't realise Eod is so close.

I'll give you time to address things however you want to do so. I will state though that I am not especially concerned with bad reads. Shit happens. There's greater nuance to my suspicions, and you can get to that when you're able.

Do your thing Dragomir and I'll see what you have to say. I have LC as a solid dog based on the analysis I just posted last page.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:02 pm I think it's clear that Rej wanted to take me down with him by how he read me. He voted LC up knowing that he'd get lynched anyway to distance from his buddy. It's crystal clear that Rej didn't really want to save himself so he votes LC to make his buddy appear more town.

I'd like to know how everyone else feels about LC and the developments of the wagons late in Day 1.

Another thing to note is that Rej was the Siamese cat. I would say that role is the weakest of the three cat roles. It's essentially a mafia doctor, which is only relevant in extremely specific cases when a vigilante threatens (or the independent in the original iteration of the game). Otherwise there's a Godfather-roleblocker and a role cop-strongmanner. These have utility every night and are probably more important to keep alive. So if Long Con (or Dragomir) is a mafioso as a Rej counterwagon, then his egging on of the Dragomir wagon and his actual vote in the Long Con wagon would have to threaten a stronger role than his own.

Such strategic insights depend upon optimal play, which we all know isn't always reality, but it's still something that a theory should account for.

Fayt wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:10 pm On mobile so if I'm missing something with the case on me, I will respond later on pc.

As I stated before, it's a terrible reach to say I was distancing. Mac's defense at the time was that only Rej is actively saying Dragomir is town when TH who also said the same when I made that post. Does that mean I was distancing from TH (who flipped dog)

As for the bussing argument, the reason I placed my vote on Rej so late at the end because the word gamble triggered many alarms in my head and the long con lynch oddly picking up at the end when the votes are incredibly close. In my small experience with playing mafia, they're trying to save a teammate.

I'll give you the chance to answer more fully when you can get to your computer. Until then this leaves me with arguments already present in the thread -- I'm just left to mull over that as I already would be. I appreciate the initial response in any event.

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:28 pm JJJ can i see somewhere the timing of the votes ? i guess not being a poll but i have to ask.
I wish to know when the Drago wagon appeard and when and who started to vote Long Con. Or maybe soemone can tell me this.

We're only able to account for the timing of votes that people called in the thread (by searching for the word "aubergine", tagged along every vote). Many votes may have been uncalled, so we're forced to piece it together uncertainly.

Let's please do something with this time.

I'll see what Long Con has to say for himself.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:38 pm
Spoiler: show
Rej wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:58 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:46 pm Rej, as far as I am concerned your vote is on Dragomir right now. You're exploring ideas and asking questions, but the day is over in less than 40 minutes. Who do you want to lynch?

I have my vote nowhere for exactly such a moment. We can agree on doing the Long Con gamble lynch. Else my lynch would be wasted on others I feel, in a sense that we can't get enough votes maybe.
So my vote on Long Con should be bringing us forward.
[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

Gonna take a smoke, gonna check all 5 minute instances.

This vote came a moment before I placed a late vote on Dragomir -- I was trying to bait Rej with my own vote, but as it happens he was "baited" to the Long Con wagon first. I don't see many worlds here where Long Con is not a civilian.

> Two wagons: Rej and Dragomir
> A third wagon slowly emerges: Long Con
> Rej never votes Dragomir
> Rej votes Long Con when the wagon becomes viable

Whatever Dragomir's alignment, I highly doubt Rej specifically waits for this opportunity to vote for his own teammate.

This is the core of my read. I grant that Rej has shown the tendency to do Unusual Things™ so we'll see.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:52 pm JaggedJimmyJay so take away your empirical analysis for a second and tell me if there is anyone/s in your green pile that are scummy regardless of their status being improved by the Rej flip. If you can express why that'd also be helpful. If your POE is accurate I think that Epi/Fayt are scummy and I can ping clear everyone else below the middle.

If I had to name one green that would not be green absent Rej, it'd be Long Con. Dragomir and speedchuck had their moments earlier, but I think they're fine even at face value now.

I could expand it to the pseudo-greens and say Dom. He and nutella are similar in my eyes here; nutella strikes me as more authentic overall. Dom doesn't necessarily ping me, but I also can't conclusively clear him with much.

There was the bit that I talked about in Michelle's and sprityo's analyses that I thought made them a decent one-or-the-other pairing. I emerged from the night with a world view of Fayt and sprityo/Michelle as the most likely team. Michelle seems okay by tone; sprityo isn't here -- I'd call the latter a bigger suspect.

Dom would be my "darkhorse" pick at the moment. While he didn't sound disingenuous, the objective criteria still stands as something he'll have to answer to. He contributed vocally to some of the suspicion of Rej, but his vote never wavered from Dragomir. He wasn't around late in the day; I do think he was here late enough to begin to reconsider his take on Dragomir at least.

Feels great to assess things without all that gross meta in the way.

[mention]MacDougall[/mention], who do you most suspect outside your own suspect pool?

Also, who's in your suspect pool apart from Fayt?

Dragomir wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:53 pm Now here is why I find LC to be bad. First is this post right here. http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 38#p555038. This right here is a clear cut soft defense that LC tried to create. He tries using the opinion of Michelle to support Rej when Jay voted for him. I find such an attempt very weak based on the fact that Michelle's town read on Rej shouldn't matter to how he reads or Jay reads Rej. Since when do players just town read someone cause somebody else did? It's not like Michelle had info on Rej. It's an incredible wink link and really has no purpose behind it besides supporting/saving Rej. He tried and failed. Because he failed, he moves on to vote for Rej. I find this to be a distancing attempt. Rej is most likely to be lynched so drop the vote and look better for it. The vote is out of nowhere when LC had made no mention of any remote suspicion of Rej. Nothing at all. Hell, it's more likely that he town read Rej based on the post I linked here.

Now moving on to Rej's posts. http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 99#p554999. Here, he brings up LC for the first time. There's a rushed tone to it. Like Rej just realized that he should mention his buddy in a bad light of sorts and try to create some distancing. It's what he did, whether or not it was distancing or just fake reads is up to you. Next, he votes for LC. Rej didn't want to save himself, he could have done that a long time ago by hopping on my wagon. No, he took the prime opportunity to distance. That's really all I can see from his vote on LC. Just how I feel about it.

I think your assertions are valid and warrant a response. [mention]Long Con[/mention], have a red hot go at it, sir.

Search found 500 matches