The Syndicate

that's not even what I asked

I mean to ask if you meant to say that DDL is one of your suspects but also that you think he's probably good?

Which evidence?

sig wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:05 am I'm going to go for Kyle right now, I think Dunya's post about him, seeing how she was the watcher holds some weight. However I'll try to pop in during the day tomorrow and check in.

i knew someone would say something like this

dunya changed her mind about me midgame, which, if the situation were that which i were a baddie and she'd targeted me with watching then she wouldn't have changed her mind at all.

she began suspecting me again after the quin lynch and brought it up during that night, before the dawn of the next day.

in short there's no way dunya's suspecting me was a result of her watcher abilities

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:44 am
sig wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:05 am I'm going to go for Kyle right now, I think Dunya's post about him, seeing how she was the watcher holds some weight. However I'll try to pop in during the day tomorrow and check in.
i knew someone would say something like this

dunya changed her mind about me midgame, which, if the situation were that which i were a baddie and she'd targeted me with watching then she wouldn't have changed her mind at all.

she began suspecting me again after the quin lynch and brought it up during that night, before the dawn of the next day.

in short there's no way dunya's suspecting me was a result of her watcher abilities

Okay actually turns out i was thinking of Quin. dunya has suspected me from the start, but i have to think that if she thought she had information on me she would have at least pushed for my lynch a lot harder than she did. that's not the situation we have before us. dunya's suspicion of me was purely based on in thread feelings and pings which she was wrong about.

Hey quick question is anyone still playing this game?

Dunyas points about me have already been addressed....

Hey look, guys? Seriously, if you're going to vote for me saying "I liked Dunyas points" it's important to me that you actually explain the points. Like do some reading or whatever. If I have to die I want it to at least make it easier for the rest of the

for the rest of game to move forwardly in a positive manner. Like I'm cool with dying. With the current thread atmosphere and after dunya got killed it was pretty much gauranteed result. I get that I haven't played the best and like... to be frank, circumstantial evidence doesn't look the best right now for me. If I weren't me I'd probably vote for me too.

Most of the top posters, movers and shakers are already dead, the ones that are still alive are preoccupied with life stuff, and that's what worries me.

A mafia endgame with low-radar flying baddies and absent/complacent civvies isn't a game where the good guys win.

Read through her posts from the start and tell me that she would throw her own husband under the bus like that? I mean... I guess it's possible. But why would it be advantageous? What's the gain from that?

If it we're between Sig and SD I guess I'd say Sig but I also don't really like that you're the one presenting this choice to me because I don't have any reason to believe that you're not a mutineer.

Look, I've been in situations like this before, speedchuck. There's enough circumstantial evidence against me enough cloudiness in the water otherwise that if I don't get lynched now then we're likely to lynch a good pirate and that leads to the whole "day 5 guess we we're wrong, let's try lynching Kyle again" thing, and by that point the game is already lost.

The player I feel the most inclined to lynch right now is DDL, I think the evidence against him is significant and I know he had to go camping or something like that but I don't like that he hasn't posted more since MP's death.

Otherwise I think we have a 50-50 shot with the replacements, at least probably

I don't want to die, but I'd rather get lynched than be used as a distraction tool for the mafia.

I think that's a naive viewpoint. I'm looking at the big picture.

No offense.

Like that was a really great 2 page essay but think about the ways this can go. Think about the fact that I am the only person trying to prove my innocence right now.

1. I successfully keep myself from getting lynched but another civvie dies. Result, I probably get lynched the next day anyways, right? That's two lynches wasted. This only benefits baddies.

2. I somehow singlehandedly figure out which one of you is a baddie and get you lynched, on my own because everyone else is either decided or gone. This is less likely than number 1. Definitely the ideal scenario but like... Seriously? Unlikely.

3. The third and most likely option is that I get lynched and die and day 5's day period gets taken seriously but even if it doesn't, that's still two more chances to kill a baddie than you would have had otherwise.

Or I guess there's the 4th option where we use the no lynch option

The jailer will have just as much time to do their job regardless of whether or not a lynch happens

you have such an overly exaggerated civvie patriotism about you speedchuck, it's weird.

You're framing it as if I'm *trying* to die. I'm just accepting that it's happening and putting faith in the other civvies that they'll figure things out.

I've got an hour, so I'd like to do what I can to help the cause until then.

I don't have a positive read on Sig but he's been flying under the radar and he needs to be taken seriously.

I think the fact that Dunya was murdered is telling, I think whoever chose to kill her was probably online during the timeframe that we we're having the conversation during the night phase a couple hours before the night post came up, it must have been done because of that, it's too much of a coincidence otherwise.

It's strange that LC was killed but not SD since they were equally responsible for MP's lynch. Of course maybe the mafia doesn't see SD as a threat?

In general I just don't trust speedchuck in this game. I think he uses manipulative wording to make himself seem civvie. There's a lot of posturing and I don't trust it.

Um... What else....

Voting for DDL, my only hope for survival is Spacedaisy or Jack

I'm not really sure I understand the new meta where people ignore evidence in favor of solely focusing on vibes but I still think DDL deserves a thorough looking at.

Also to reiterate, I don't want to die. If anyone is down for a no lynch then I am too.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:35 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:09 pm The jailer will have just as much time to do their job regardless of whether or not a lynch happens
Don't make me bring out num-

huh, you're right. I could go no-lynch.

Keep in mind that NT's vote doesn't count.

fuck you're right

But it's worth a try I guess no lynch

Hey colonialbob I love you, and I probably agree with you about DDL but there is 0% chance of DDL getting lynched today so could you maybe consider voting for the no lynch option

Please? Love you.

Thank you for not killing me after all, I hope the extra time is beneficial.

Did SD say when birdswithteeth would be done visiting?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:26 pmKyle: Quin, I only had you slightly lower than null and is kinda gut over content. Don't be mad at me. (See what I mean? Scared.)

Hey good morning everyone.

I want to ask about the "being afraid to condemn someone to death after first meeting them is mafia behavior" thing. Like is that a real meta that's come up in the community from the last few years?

Why would that ever arise as a thing? It seems incredibly counterintuitive.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:28 pm Emphasis on "afraid" as scum indicative. As scum, one must be careful to not say something that gives away their alignment.

As my pal/rival Silver Lantern would say, townies have no fear.

But that's wrong. In a battle between informed minority and uninformed majority, why would recklessness be the default?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:02 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:50 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:28 pm Emphasis on "afraid" as scum indicative. As scum, one must be careful to not say something that gives away their alignment.

As my pal/rival Silver Lantern would say, townies have no fear.
But that's wrong. In a battle between informed minority and uninformed majority, why would recklessness be the default?
Lacking fear and being wreck less are not the same.

But it is though, like by definition, in real life and also mafia.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:23 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:36 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:32 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:29 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:24 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:12 pm do we have enough people around right now for a tie to be informative?
Can you explain how it could be informative?
The regular ways?
Honestly ties are much less informative than other lynches IMO. I have no idea what you are talking about.

Who would you want to tie, though?
How do you figure that?

And it's already in a tie including 2 people I suspect so I'm contented already.
Who was tied at this point.

(Sorry, Kyle. You got a lot of content in a row.)

The tie was MP, Quin, and NewTraditions... I think. It might have been the other absentee.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:42 am No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

Really love this sentiment. 3-4 people who weren't around at the end of the lynch phase and also not there during a lot of the discussion period come by to criticize the choice that was made during it.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:42 am No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:18 pm And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.

3 votes for me, one vote for you one vote for you, 19 minutes left. Speedchuck, who had a vote on me wasn't willing to vote for you. Cbob showed up out of nowhere. What would you have done?

I'm at the shelter rn but I'll be back later to review some stuff

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:58 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:18 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:17 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:42 am No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.
No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.
You are excused from it in my book because you needed to save yourself.

The other two are not.
Even if Kyle is town, it's still a bad move to go no lynch over lynching Kyle.

We gave the kill choice to the mafia and they picked Daisy. We could have lynched suspicious Kyle, which would be preferable in the endgame.

He doesn't get a free pass either. Like the other no lynch voters, his vote only helps him if he's bad.

That's actually a kind of weird line of reasoning. How do you figure that?

There were only two choices. One where I die and one where no one dies. Had I chosen the other one the situation would be the same only with one less player alive and still no new information gained.

Also... not to put too fine a point on it the whole "hey, lack of participation is poison" thing but, I was 100% ready to die until the only person online at the time told me it was better not to.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:50 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:58 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:18 pm And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.
3 votes for me, one vote for you one vote for you, 19 minutes left. Speedchuck, who had a vote on me wasn't willing to vote for you. Cbob showed up out of nowhere. What would you have done?

I'm at the shelter rn but I'll be back later to review some stuff
You could have voted for Jack, Sig or Daisy, assuming you needed all three to make a consensus.

I didn't suspect any of those three, I suspected you and speedchuck.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:56 pm If you are a civ, you should have been pursuing the "everything else" scenario.

I was pursuing an everything else scenario for the entire day phase, DDL, but no one else was playing. A couple votes thrown down but no discussion was happening at all basically starting immediately after Dunya's death. I tried to drum up discussion I eventually decided that my death was probably beneficial to the town because it would at least hopefully kill the complacency and get people to discuss and play again, but then speedchuck convinced me that that wasn't the right thing to do.

Cbob was only there near the very very end, with just speedchuck there my options were to accept death or to convince speedchuck who has been defending DDL for most of the game to vote to lynch him instead of me. Speedchuck talked me out of dying and I remembered that no lynching is technically an option. We voted there and made it a tie and when Cbob showed up I asked him to vote to save my life.

It was a desperation move made necessary by neglected civvie resources (mainly discussion) and maybe it was the wrong move but you would be saying the same thing if I'd let myself be lynched too. I did everything I could.

I'm sorry I actually did fuck up. I was right when I thought I should have died. I thought keeping myself alive was beneficial for the group cus of numbers but really having too many civvie numbers is the main problem right now. That's never been the case in any game I've played before. I should have let myself be lynched.

It never even once occurred to me that entering day 6 with too many people would be a problem for any reason. I was not as aware of the math as I should have been, and I fucked it because of that. I will do my best to unfuck it.

I wasn't really even aware of the concept of Lylo or Mylo. I didn't know that you as a thing, because it never was a thing. In the games I'm used to it's never actually over until it's over, because of role powers and multiple other strategic variables.

which is why it's actually really weird to me that it didn't occur to speedchuck in any of his strategy based arguments about why I shouldn't let myself get lynched

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:58 pm @Kylemii

Who is bad?

If I had to put money on it right now at this moment I'd say Speedchuck is probably one..... Idk who else... ._.

I need to review some things

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:07 pm Kylemii - I'm not going to lay any blame here for being tricked into mathematical no-lynch. I was confused, stupid, inconsistent. I do recommend reading the context, though.
Kyle has been consistently earnest and also nearly consistently inconsistent on the wrong side of things. For example, this no-lynch. After the fact, he says that DDL and me are his biggest suspects. That makes zero sense with his actions. I suggested we change the lynch, but not go to DDL. Someone who suspected me would have ignored my suggestions and seen it as stronger evidence that I was 'saving' DDL (Though I could have just left things on Kyle). You don't follow the suggestion of one of your suspects to change your plans and also save your other suspect.
So like I said. Earnest, but making some very confusing choices that are contradictory and scum beneficial.
Got that one MP vote going for him too.

But that's wrong. I suspected you or DDL, not you and DDL.

You've been defending and praising DDL for most of the game in a way that would put him or you as a clear suspect if one of you were lynched, so I think it's more likely that not-both of you are bad. Either neither or just one, but not both.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:33 pm I had moved Kyle into townie read status, but d3/n3 moves him back down. Don't like the "throw down a vote and come back hour before EOD" bit. Perhaps that's more common here?

I'm not even from here.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:36 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:33 pm I had moved Kyle into townie read status, but d3/n3 moves him back down. Don't like the "throw down a vote and come back hour before EOD" bit. Perhaps that's more common here?
I'm not even from here.

I mean more specifically my mafia play patterns and habits were born in a different ecosystem than the currently active one.

But also I think a large part of the reason I left was that I used to hyperfocus on mafia to the point that it would stress me out. I've been resolving to take breaks and do other things more often so it doesn't ever get to that point.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:14 pm I want to lynch one of the no lynch people and Bob is the only one I've never read as a civ.

Going to go with him for now.

I'm actually a little curious about this. What are you doing?

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] okay I meant to elaborate on that before pressing send

My question is why adopt such a lax attitude

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:06 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:53 pm @Dragon D. Luffy okay I meant to elaborate on that before pressing send

My question is why adopt such a lax attitude
What lax attitude?

I picked a criterium for lynching and i'm using it.

I think that no lynch was the most anti-town event to happen in the entire game so I'm betting there is a baddie among those who did it.

And bob hasn't done much all game so I'm fine with this lynch.

That covers most of what I'm talking about but "fine with his lynch" doesn't seem like enough conviction for this critical point in the game

But then again it's not like you just voted and scampered off your still here with us so the point is a little bit moot

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:41 pm @Kylemii

Suppose DDL is bad. Who would you pick as his most likely buddy. Speed?

If DDL is bad I would say that speedchuck is an unlikely ally barring some especially nutsy moves over a long period of time. But maybe I'm wrong about that? I feel like a lot of this game has been about breaking down my reliance on meta that is no longer relevant.

I feel like of the current players, if DDL bad, then his most likely allies are you, cbob, and Sig.

Sig remains to be a fucking danger pile, he doesn't seem to be connected to anyone or anything

Okay so what are even the likely pairs of mafia at this point?

Or not likely but plausible

sig wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:43 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:13 pm
sig wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:23 pm Switched to NewTraditionalist until they post.

I didn't read Kyle's post as that odd or pingy.

I figured MP was messing/flirting with you over that vote Daisy, I'm surprised you're taking it that way.

I've got nothing else to add besides the fact that I think either DDL or LC is bad, but not both. The other baddies are either semi active or inactive I believe. I must be off for the time, but I'll be back tomorrow.
I don't understand how you can form an assumption like this on Day 1. Does this mean you're currently town-reading all the other active players?
It's a general idea/gut read and notice I did name two players who could be mafia who are active. Plus i'd say from a statistical point of view there's a good chance I'm right.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:11 pm People I'd be willing to lynch today in order:

Kyle - I appreciate the excuse of being rusty (me too dude, apart from Seinfeld I played here, and the few days I was alive in Street Fighter mafia, I haven't played in aaaages). Still, something strikes me as insincere. Something strikes me as being mafia and trying to hard to be townie. Something strikes me as playing it too safe and trying to appear purposely unknowledgeable. I stand by it. Even yesterdays "rainbow list and reads" were like a mafia coverup trying to keep everyone somewhat happy because you're taking initiative and making an effort so to keep them at bay. Didn't like it.

MovingPicture - I want to say your dissertation is reason of your absence. But you have people suspecting you. Townie you would be going bonkers at this point. You haven't made a suspect list. Your contributions day 1 were out there, but timid. Every time someone answered a query, you said you were happy with that explanation. Where are you? Why aren't you probing harder? Why are you encouraging a Day 1 no-poster lynch?

Quin - wishy washy. Had him down as semi-town. Participation has dwindled down quite noticeably and I wonder if that's in part due to fear of being eliminated since some heat was thrown his way, and wanting to show up at the eleventh hour to cast a vote. Seems too obvious, so I don't like it. Prove me wrong.
This strikes me as more townie MP. Whenever I've played with him and he's scum he is very suptown, I find it more likely to believe he's busy. This was also a main reason behind my vote.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:00 pm Can't talk in class will explain vote later

Okay so, this was partly my bad. I thought the poll was about to close, saw a tie, and made a snap decision. At this point I still believed MP was more civvie then Quin and a few of Quin's posts had pinged me. As I continue to catch up I'll see how my opinion changes, but I was confident in my vote at that time and believed Quin was more likely to be bad then MP.

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:34 pm Perhaps I'm finding it hard to be objective on Kyle because I'm just so happy to have him back around and really don't want to lynch the guy on D1 of his first game back when he's been dying to play a game. I should throw that sentiment out to the window, but I can't seem to be able to.

OOO I don't like this post at all.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:48 pm Ok Im still here.

I dont like this day end.

I dont like how quin and mp are not voting each oter.

Cfd on wilgy guys?
I want to lynch DDL, for this alone. There is no good reason to CFD onto Wilgy.

At this point I believe the votes were split between Quin, MP, and DDL this is the second CFD I sense shenanigans.

I forgot that this happened. I remember back at the time it seemed weird to me that sig had left for class but then returned to change his vote to Quin while MP was at risk

sig wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:31 pm Nice job! I knew my original paranoia was right. :P

I think this clears quite a few players and I think this sets up tomorrow's kybxh very nicely. I'd think quin due to mp refusing to lynch vote him and vice versa, this also pretty much clears LC and daisy into

Which puts this post-MP death post in a pretty odd light, i don't believe sig had a vote on any of the at risk players at the end of day 2, am I missing something?

As a point of data Sig's activity also fell off following MP's death, with the explanation of army stuff. I've seen mafia lose interest in game after the death of their most active teammate.

I think if Jack is mafia then he's put an incredible amount of work into not looking like it.

A mafia Jack would be able to at this point coast into a boring but easy win with minimal effort.

Sig-Speedchuck

Speedchuck-cbob

DDL-cBob

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