The Syndicate

cat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:22 am Nice to see Made wagon and me not reading anyone on it as wolf, staying here until i finish reading.
Sloonei i don't understand your question at all. Can you answer it first?

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:37 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:33 am

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:27 am Scum Tutuu actually makes a lot of sense here, especially if there’s multiple mafia teams

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:48 am I do not follow

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:49 am I will also need more than "X could be scum because it's multiball and they can be scumhunting honestly" at all points in this game. Yes, that is a thing to be mindful of, but it is not a case in itself.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:55 am

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:53 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:49 am I will also need more than "X could be scum because it's multiball and they can be scumhunting honestly" at all points in this game. Yes, that is a thing to be mindful of, but it is not a case in itself.

Why not? Obv baddie hunting isn’t scummy period, but baddie hunting in specific ways is something to look at very closely when the players most incentivized to hunt are bad

If we can point to specific styles of scum hunting and articulate reasons why they're bad, that's different and better than simply saying "mafia can still scum hunt therefore X is mafia."

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:55 am I'm disappointed I'm not top wagon. Come on guys, it's a Syndicate tradition.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:02 am

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:58 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:55 am

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:53 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:49 am I will also need more than "X could be scum because it's multiball and they can be scumhunting honestly" at all points in this game. Yes, that is a thing to be mindful of, but it is not a case in itself.

Why not? Obv baddie hunting isn’t scummy period, but baddie hunting in specific ways is something to look at very closely when the players most incentivized to hunt are bad

If we can point to specific styles of scum hunting and articulate reasons why they're bad, that's different and better than simply saying "mafia can still scum hunt therefore X is mafia."

Are you saying that’s what I’m doing? Cuz I’m trying man


(Pls note this AtE is strictly for comedic purposes)

lol. No, not now that you've explained it differently. Having not played either of the games you were referencing, it just looked like you were vaguely discrediting tutuu's efforts here.

But also I'm just expressing some general caution as we move forward. Be wary of the possibility of multiball, but don't let paranoia derail your reads.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:27 am Never fear nanook is here

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:19 pm

112 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:18 pm dizzy literally openwolfing

there are like seven people openwolfing, this means nothing

112 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:24 pm kill nanook/dizzy/MAYBE (huge maybe) tim tonight

ez game

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:31 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:28 pmno we have an additional 24 hours.

Oh ok. Nice. Maybe I'll actually do something semi useful by then. I already caught Radish so.

If people say Michelle is town, Michelle is probably town. And I saw someone saying that, maybe even more than one.
I think Made is town based on just one of his posts, but I'm pretty sure I'm right.
My speed reading not really here not really thinking about it reads are my best reads.

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:38 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:37 pm Nutella is town here, I think. I mean firstly there's the obvious mountain of content. 9% of this thread is just posts by nutella. secondly she her posts and logical processes are things I follow and understand.

I've also found her to seem 'opportunistic' as town I don't think that's alignment indicative

only villagers post a lot

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:07 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:19 pm I am so lost, can someone catch me up. Why are we voting 112 now?

THIS IS A FUCKING LOST WOLF SOFT OR MY NAME ISNT TUTUU

[VOTE: Made] aubergine

I SWEAR TO GOD THIS IS A LOST WOLF SOFT CLAIM

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:42 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:39 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:36 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:33 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:29 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:27 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:23 pm

Oh Alison, my mistake. I've already said why I'm voting for her, I don't believe her.

What about her claim did you not believe?

I think she's a wolf, so the whole thing I suppose.

Why does that seem to bother you?

Do you think she's a mafia who claims that? For one, it just adds needless suspicion. Alison is a good player, so if she is scum people are going to notice that she isn't dying at night due to not being nightkilled. There is no reason for someone who is mafia to claim that at all.

I could understand if you think she's a naughty indie who isn't giving us the whole truth. In my opinion, indies are distractions that scum uses to hide behind.

I have said before I wouldn't be against the yeet as a fallback, but its not the optimal decision.

I'm going with the idea that she's a wolf hiding in plain sight, which is fiendishly clever. She actually addresses in her claim post why the Maf should not kill her, so that's an easy explanation she can use as to why she's not been NK'd.


Is she Maf, is that the hill I'm gonna die on? I dunno, maybe. Given her activity level, I'm comfortable with it

Do you think she came up with the role?

She does have a wealth of experience from which to draw upon

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:55 pm If Alison thought of that role on the spot then Jesus. I think it's more likely the role is true. At worst she is hiding certain parts of the role.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:58 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:57 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:55 pm If Alison thought of that role on the spot then Jesus. I think it's more likely the role is true. At worst she is hiding certain parts of the role.

alison posted a similar post in the game that the gambit demon was actually in

Which game was this?

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Nov 29, 2020 2:05 am The Gambit Demon has bargained with me.

Here is the reference post outlining the Gambit Demon's role, as stated in the OP. It is a third-party role.

-Gambit Demon: During the day, select a player to bargain with. You will join a chat with the player who can choose to accept your help *SECRETS*

On Day 0, the Gambit Demon selected me as the target, and has revealed their identity to me. They have performed a full claim to me, listing every detail about their role and win condition, and assured me that they intend to townside this game because it helps them fulfil their win condition. I will not be revealing the Gambit Demon's identity right now, because the Mafia Obliterator has a soupkill.

In the spoilers below, I will set out what the Gambit Demon's roleclaim is, how we can use it to our advantage, and ways to protect against deception or treachery by the Demon.

Spoiler: show

Here is what the Gambit Demon claims their role does.

1) As stated in the OP, they can select a player to bargain with, and gain BTSC with them.
2) When a player is being bargained with, they may choose at night to gain more power by striking a deal with the demon. This grants them a power role, but comes at a cost.
3) The first time they strike a deal, they gain a roleblock, but their vote is reduced to 0 the next day. This is "tier 1".
4)The second time they strike a deal is "tier 2", giving them the ability to swap places with another player (ie. a Bus Driver ability), at the cost of having all abilities directed at the Gambit Demon redirect to them instead.
5) The third time is "tier 3", and kills them instantly but allows them to either kill or protect any other player.

This is a mere claim; the Gambit Demon can be lying about any part of this.

The Gambit Demon claims that their win condition is to have any person either take the tier 3 deal, OR strike 7 deals in total. That means that there must be seven instances of a person accepting a power - it could be 3 players going up to tier 2 and a third going up to tier 1, or 7 different players going up to tier 1, or any combination that lets them get up to 7 deals struck in total.

I have very good reasons to believe this win condition is the absolute truth. I think it is imprudent to specify those reasons, but I will ask you to take it on faith that they're being honest about that part - there aren't any booby traps, or "everyone who strikes a deal with the demon ends up getting killed" things going on with this. They just have to get one person to tier 3 or seven people to tier 1, and then they win and can check out of the thread.

Spoiler: show

I believe there is a way for us to use the Gambit Demon's role to our advantage. I will outline briefly the plan here. Naturally there will be concern about betrayal on the part of the Demon. These concerns will be dealt with in the third spoiler, "Protections against treachery". The plan is as follows.

1) I will personally select a player who I trust to be town. The Gambit Demon will offer them a bargain, opening BTSC with them. I myself will strike a deal with the Demon for the tier 1 benefit, and so will the player who they contact.

2) In this manner, two players that I trust to be town will gain a power role (roleblock). Then, we will select another player who we trust to be town, possibly with input from the rest of the thread. This player will also take a tier 1 power.

3) This process repeats, with a new consensus town player selected each night, and taking powers. This part is very important: NO PLAYER WILL TAKE ANY POWER BEYOND TIER 1. Tier 1 is the power that runs the least chance of a catastrophic booby trap implanted in it, as it is hardly likely for the host to inflict severe penalties on someone who accepts a single night's bargain. The downside is not particularly relevant, especially this early in the game. More importantly, it is crucial to the strategy I have devised for protecting against the Demon's treachery that nobody take more than 1 tier of power. I repeat: [color=]ACCEPT THE FIRST DEAL, AND NO MORE[/color]. Don't get greedy and try to make a hero bus driver shot and ruin everything.

4) The sum result of this is that we will essentially turn the Gambit Demon into machine that generates one free roleblock shot every night, to be handed out to people deemed consensus town. Because it is public who the roleblocks are given to, they are held accountable for their shots. That means if we accidentally misclear a wolf and give them a roleblock, they're obliged to use it on someone the town thinks they should use it on, rather than roleblocking a town player or claimed PR.

5) The Gambit Demon has agreed to this plan, because this allows them to get seven bargains struck fairly easily and fulfil their win condition.

Spoiler: show

Now, a name like "Gambit Demon" doesn't exactly inspire suspicion, and neither does the thought of striking mysterious "deals" with them. However, there is no need to worry, as I have devised two strategies to ensure that the Gambit Demon is incentivized to side with town and to obediently hand out roleblocker shots to whoever we agree should get it.

Strategy One: The Leash
Because my plan involves no player taking a power beyond tier 1, the Gambit Demon will have to give seven different players a tier 1 power in order to win. This means that we are essentially putting a leash on them, forcing them to work with us and give players we select a tier 1 power over the course of 7 days. By controlling the circumstances in which the Gambit Demon is permitted to win, and ensuring that they won't actually achieve their win condition until later in the game, we force them to side with us early in the game in order to reach that win condition. This protects against scumsiding, and also against situations where the Gambit Demon achieves their win condition and is free to rampage around the thread causing chaos as they please.

Strategy Two: The Dead Man's Switch
One of my major concerns when constructing this strategy was the possibility of the bargain being more Faustian than expected - perhaps taking a power would have some negative side effect inflicted on me that the Demon has chosen not to disclose. Or perhaps the Demon would get some measure of power over me as a player if I take their bargain. Or perhaps they're simply lying about some aspects of their role claim (remember, I have reason to believe that their win condition is accurate, but not that their role claim is) and can't be trusted.

For this reason, I have established a Dead Man's Switch strategy that allows the Gambit Demon's role to be kept secret (to protect them from being killed by the Obliterator) if they cooperate, but leaked to the rest of the thread if and only if something goes wrong. They are incentivized to make sure this does not happen, because if their identity is leaked, they will be killed either by the Obliterator or by townies, and therefore be unable to achieve their win condition (which is why the Leash is important for keeping them in line, by allowing us to hold this Damocles' Doom over their head).

The strategy is as follows. When the Gambit Demon contacts a player to offer a bargain to them, they gain BTSC with that player. (Remember, this is a player that's been agreed on to be unimpeachably town by the rest of the thread.) As stated in the plan, they will accept the deal and again the tier 1 roleblocking power. They will also, at the same time, establish the Gambit Demon's identity. This can be done in a multitude of ways, or as the player sees fit. If you don't have a better way, the Gambit Demon will tell you what method I used to establish their identity and then have you use it to prove their identity to you.

Under ordinary circumstances, the Gambit Demon's identity is to be kept secret to protect against Obliterator. But if anything goes wrong, the players who know the Gambit Demon's identity will reveal it to the thread, and the town will then execute them, preventing them from completing their win condition. The threat of this will keep the Gambit Demon in line. Things going wrong include: the Gambit Demon not offering a bargain to the person we agreed on, an undeclared negative side effect happening on people who took deals, the people who took deals previously dropping dead without a good explanation for why, or any other evidence of foul play or treachery.

If we have falsely cleared a wolf, and wrongly selected scum to receive the Gambit Demon's bargain, then scum will be privy to the knowledge of who the Gambit Demon is. If the Gambit Demon themselves dies under suspicious circumstances (eg. the Obliterator's soup kill), then we will know that one of the people who we trusted enough to give a roleblock to was a deepwolf in disguise. This is still a positive development for us, because it proves the existence of a deepwolf while we have already gotten to reap some benefits from the Gambit Demon (in the form of giving townies free roleblocks). If the mafia want to waste their nightkill on a 3P slot and work to pass it off as something other than a Gambit Demon snipe (which would out the existence of a deepwolf), that is also fine by me.

If there are any objections or flaws with this plan, let me know.

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:01 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:24 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:20 pm falcon plummeting for me rn

How can I plummet for you if I never ascended to begin with?

I don't think I've posted reads, so there's no way you could know where I had you

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:04 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:03 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:01 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:24 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:20 pm falcon plummeting for me rn

How can I plummet for you if I never ascended to begin with?

I don't think I've posted reads, so there's no way you could know where I had you

Every time I see how tired you look in your profile pic I want to give you a hug. I've been thinking that for a while, so I thought I should just tell you

your pfp on the other hand looks so alert and studious and focused with the help of lo fi beats

im jealous

i have a headache

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:26 pm [VOTE: Dizzy] aubergine

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:46 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:45 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:42 pm

Made wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:39 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:37 pm So did I miss anything?

Mac just explained the rules

Yeah I got here just in time for that part...I mean in the previous however many pages since I bailed out.

I see the Hyena wagon dissipated...yours didn't. Wanna give me a tl;dr on how you got sussed?

I’ve been naughty

Still processing whether or not that’s optimal play, but I’ll sleep on it

Depends on if you squirm out of it.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:32 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:31 pm never confirmed, falcon, but ur the only person to give real push back on it, and thread consensus likes to imagine there's only 2 mafia teams. I'm assuming someone scum slipped somewhere and we're looking at two teams till I see evidence for otherwise

Real pushback = asking if it's been confirmed?


Oooooookay

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:33 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:14 pm

you can make your own here!!!

v v v v v
https://picrew.me/image_maker/457262

u so cuteeee omg

here me

Spoiler: show

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:48 pm i want to do acid who wants to do acid with me

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:13 pm

Spoiler: show

okay, i think my brain is starting to understand dynamics of where we're at:
if i'm getting things right...
we're not voting Thunel unless some dunks on her hard,
we're not voting MR unless we can't find someone else,
we're not voting Nutella unless we find a reason to not vote MR,
if we wait till the last 10 minutes of the day we vote martin.

Till something else happens probably just vote Falcon.

Did i hit pretty much everything here?

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:14 pm made i think u think day is ending soon is that rite?

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:14 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:14 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:13 pm

Spoiler: show

okay, i think my brain is starting to understand dynamics of where we're at:
if i'm getting things right...
we're not voting Thunel unless some dunks on her hard,
we're not voting MR unless we can't find someone else,
we're not voting Nutella unless we find a reason to not vote MR,
if we wait till the last 10 minutes of the day we vote martin.

Till something else happens probably just vote Falcon.

Did i hit pretty much everything here?

oh i missed 112. 112 x Falcon wagons? is that where today is going?

Did you find your mafia team yet?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:16 pm

Spoiler: show

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:15 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:13 pm
okay, i think my brain is starting to understand dynamics of where we're at:
if i'm getting things right...
we're not voting Thunel unless some dunks on her hard,
we're not voting MR unless we can't find someone else,
we're not voting Nutella unless we find a reason to not vote MR,
if we wait till the last 10 minutes of the day we vote martin.

Till something else happens probably just vote Falcon.

Did i hit pretty much everything here?

I think you are pretending there is no real case on Falcon and wonder if that is genuine on your part.

Show me da case

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:27 pm @Made what do you think of cat?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:30 pm There is an entire day left made

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:31 pm What does potential staying power tinfoil into the late game mean?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:36 pm Lets just kill them today instead.

cat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:22 am Nice to see Made wagon and me not reading anyone on it as wolf, staying here until i finish reading.
Sloonei i don't understand your question at all. Can you answer it first?

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:42 pm oh, before we get to far, Mac, do you want me to post receipts that we think the same post is scummy, or do you believe me when I say we're probably on the wavelength here?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:42 pm @Made what are your reasons for suspecting Cat? For posterity.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:47 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:46 pm

Made wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:42 pm oh, before we get to far, Mac, do you want me to post receipts that we think the same post is scummy, or do you believe me when I say we're probably on the wavelength here?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:42 pm @Made what are your reasons for suspecting Cat? For posterity.

also be honest, did you see my post when I sent that or did we just have a moment?

Why would I waste my thumb energy if I could have just written yes plz.

cat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:07 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:04 am
Got words to go with that Nut vote?

I'm sheeping the radishes post and my own dislike of nutella's earlygame.