The Syndicate

i just came here to have a good time and i am feeling so attacked right now

I'll read Day 3 and start putting together some names to ISO from there. I'll more or less be saving my catch-up for ISO's, I think.

Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:00 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:58 pm i just came here to have a good time and i am feeling so attacked right now
Defensive already? Scum.

-velociraptor noises-

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:22 pm INTERLOPER!
Also, Hi Quin, I don't think I've ever played a game with you. My name is TSP. Nice to meet you. I'm likely dead soon.

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:41 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:19 pm
Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:00 pm I do like that Tony has this theory. I know nothing about Night Vale, but can see their pictures are similar.

Here's what I take from this:

1) Tony had deliberate control over the target
2) Tony believed Elo to be StrexCorp
3) Tony has been trying to figure out why he is wrong, and has come up with a possiblity.

Now to figure out if this is a good look or a bad look for Tony, to have so much potential information and power.
1) To a certain degree.
2) Believed him to be bad and believed that someone else was Cecil. See Cecil's radio notes Night 1. Kevin popped out as the immediate suspect for replacement when I noticed the pictures and occupation.
3) Yep.
Trying to understand your full theory. Can you spell it out entirely?

I take it you think that the messages from night 1 and night 2 were written by different people? What makes you think that? Do you think Cecil only gets his power sometimes? Or do you think that LA was Cecil and Kevin replaced the messages once Cecil was dead? What benefit would there be to the team thinking that fourth votes didn't count--why do you think this?

What do you mean about the pictures?

Did you think that Wilgy was Cecil? If so, why?

Also, Elo is a she.
Oops.

I don't think that the night one and night two messages were written by different people, but I can't say for certain because I haven't thought about it. I don't know if Kevin performed any Cecil duties ever.

Other questions will be answered below.

Full theory: In the broadcasting message N1 Cecil said something that screamed Wilgy to me. I don't remember what it is, but I was 80% at this point. Call it gut. There's also a later reason I can't really talk about because rules but it made me 99.9% (Wilgy might know what this is). So flash forward to Elo's flip. I'm confident she's Maf purely on reads. She flips Cecil. I had in my notes Wilgy as Cecil. I was confused and assumed I had misread something and someone. So I chalked it up to that and went along with my night. Before thinking about it and realizing that I was in fact still certain that Wilgy was Cecil. So I began combing for explanations why this might happen and noticed that Kevin and Cecil shared a job description and bushy black eyebrows.

I've come up with one other explanation, but it would require some really weird mechanics.

I think we have, though you died early in whatever game that was. Or maybe I'm talking out of my ass. I can't tell myself sometimes.

Why are you likely dead soon?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:57 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:48 pm Why <is TSP> likely dead soon?
TSP just survived a lynch somehow, and a townie got flipped instead. That's the theory mess that's being talked about.

I'm looking into that atm. I also have some stuff to say about the voting mechanic change in general.

I'm late to the party, but:

My favourite mythical creature is a Phoenix, or at least it is off the top of my head. I've never really thought about it before. It doesn't need to beat anyone else, it just needs to look pretty.

This is just a stream of consciousness type thing so it's probably not incredibly helpful in some parts k

I was initially under the impression that the information about the fourth vote not counting came from Cecil (Eloh). Now I think that Cecil's contribution is just a snippet of the total post. That sounds right for the first tape, where there's a wall post of flavour and then a shout out of suspicion thrown at Epignosis. There's no obvious player contribution to the Night 3 tape, which makes me think that either Eloh wrote the entire thing or her role wasn't used/submitted for whatever reason. If Eloh wrote the entire second tape, she should have written the first, and she definitely doesn't have that kind of time. She was around enough on Night 2 to send in a message, but seemingly didn't, so I'm thinking that she was Tamika's role block. Worth looking into who suspected her to try and find someone who fits that description.

---

On Eloh's lynch, here are the roles that could partly explain TSP's survival (I refute red, I accept green)

Steve Carlsberg
Ugh. Steve Carlsberg is just about the worst guy there is. Each night, Steve may search a player and learn if (s)he has BTSC. If he targets Cecil, Steve's vote is worth 0 the next day.

Dana Cardinal
A former intern of Night Vale Community Radio, Dana has survived a fight with her own doppelganger and returned from the alternate dimension in the dog park. Dana survives her first kill attempt.

Khoshekh
A cat who hovers in the men’s bathroom of the Night Vale Community Radio station, Khoshekh has poisonous kitty spine ridges along his back. Anyone who targets Khoshekh will have +1 vote added on them the next day.

Marcus Vanston
Marcus is Night Vale’s wealthiest resident. Some have said he is worth over 5 billion dollars. And have you seen how many cars that guy owns? Wow. Marcus’ vote is worth 2.

Glow Cloud
ALL HAIL. The Glow Cloud uses its influence to force a player’s vote each Day.

You could also include Tamika, Kevin, Hiram and The Man in the Tan Jacket because they have secrets associated with their role.

Steve is dead, so rule him out.
Dana "survives" the first kill attempt (if lynches are even counted), not "passes the lynch onto the next person". Rule her out.
Eloh didn't have a targeting role, so Khoshekh can't do anything to her, so rule it out.

The actual vote tally between Eloh and TSP looks like this (red doesn't count):

TonyStarkPrime
6
50%
Voters: Golden, Boomslang, speedchuck, LoRab, Jackofhearts2005, Elohcin

Elohcin
2
17%
Voters: sprityo, insertnamehere

In reality, with the voting mechanic on Day 3, the vote was actually 2-5. If Marcus voted for Eloh, that's 3-5. If the Glow Cloud forced the vote of someone on TSP, and had them vote for Eloh, that's 4-4. I don't know how ties are settled, but Eloh's lynch can be explained that way.

My summary on this is basically:

- Look for Tamika in Eloh's suspects, as she was possibly role blocked
- In a situation where Eloh died as the result of a tie, it means that Marcus is one of sprityo and INH, and the Glow Cloud forced someone's vote away from TSP onto Eloh. This could mean that TSP is a teammate of the Glow Cloud.

Look for Tamika in people who suspected Eloh*

nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:02 pm Listeners, here is the next tape in the set I found. Hopefully, this one works:

Interns, today no intern may place a 4th vote on any player. Any votes placed 4th will not count.

Vote modifiers will still be applied.

This community event and announcement has been brought to you by Subway.

"You can run from what you eat, you can't run from what's eating you."

Subway. Eat Fresh.

Hmmm, shrieking and sizzles. I'll keep trying to fix this.

Does my theory still work given the statement about vote modifiers?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:42 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:36 pm My summary on this is basically:

- Look for Tamika in Eloh's suspects, as she was possibly role blocked
- In a situation where Eloh died as the result of a tie, it means that Marcus is one of sprityo and INH, and the Glow Cloud forced someone's vote away from TSP onto Eloh. This could mean that TSP is a teammate of the Glow Cloud.
Good theory, but 1: from what we saw of JOH in the second day that isn't how the forced vote works and 2: secrets.

I'll look into the thing with JOH. And I'm keeping secrets into account, this is just one possibility.

Dom wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:45 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:36 pm My summary on this is basically:

- Look for Tamika in Eloh's suspects, as she was possibly role blocked
- In a situation where Eloh died as the result of a tie, it means that Marcus is one of sprityo and INH, and the Glow Cloud forced someone's vote away from TSP onto Eloh. This could mean that TSP is a teammate of the Glow Cloud.
Let's keep that to ourselves...

You also don't seem to understand the force vote unless you know something I don't.

I don't know anything. I just went in with a different concept of forced voting.

Dom wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:50 pm Do votes after 4 count?

The tape only specifies the fourth, so I would say so.

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:52 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:42 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:36 pm My summary on this is basically:

- Look for Tamika in Eloh's suspects, as she was possibly role blocked
- In a situation where Eloh died as the result of a tie, it means that Marcus is one of sprityo and INH, and the Glow Cloud forced someone's vote away from TSP onto Eloh. This could mean that TSP is a teammate of the Glow Cloud.
Good theory, but 1: from what we saw of JOH in the second day that isn't how the forced vote works and 2: secrets.
Assuming he was telling the truth.

That said, that is how forced votes usually work--with the player having to physically vote a certain way.

It is. In hindsight, you'd probably call a vote change in the way I described it something different.

Coincidentally, how do people feel about sprityo and INH?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:44 pm @Nijuu

Can I say if my vote is or isn't stolen?

Can we just appreciate this post for a second?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:48 pm I can't confirm any of my Cecil theory until Wilgy shows up, which is unfortunate. If you have specific questions I can try to answer them and I will check with the mod to see the specifics of what I can / can't say.

Main points:
Wilgy is Cecil because secrets
Eloh is Cecil because she flipped that way
One of them (probably Eloh) is actually Kevin

Why do you think that Eloh is more likely to be Kevin than Wilgy?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:15 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:02 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:48 pm I can't confirm any of my Cecil theory until Wilgy shows up, which is unfortunate. If you have specific questions I can try to answer them and I will check with the mod to see the specifics of what I can / can't say.

Main points:
Wilgy is Cecil because secrets
Eloh is Cecil because she flipped that way
One of them (probably Eloh) is actually Kevin
Why do you think that Eloh is more likely to be Kevin than Wilgy?
1. I scumread Eloh.
2. Eloh flipping Cecil is relatively simple secret power text. The alternative would be secret power text that dramatically changes how half a dozen roles work and undermines the fabric of this game.

I'm interested in the specifics of this.

fuck yeah a new car

Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:46 pm Implications

Cecil is alive, Elo is Kevin
Dom was not teamed with Elo, so is not StrexCorp
Tony had good reason to suspect that Elo was not Cecil. Needs analysis on what those reasons could be.

With timmer dead and Quin not off the poll, the pool of people I actually suspect and can vote for has dwindled significantly.

I didn't notice. Neat.

Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:46 pm Implications

Cecil is alive, Elo is Kevin
Dom was not teamed with Elo, so is not StrexCorp
Tony had good reason to suspect that Elo was not Cecil. Needs analysis on what those reasons could be.

With timmer dead and Quin not off the poll, the pool of people I actually suspect and can vote for has dwindled significantly.

Kevin could also be writing Cecil host posts.

Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:20 pm
Dom wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:13 pmso what does that mean for tony?
For me, it means, I need time (or someone else with time) to figure out the viable reasons for Tony to know that Elo wasn't Cecil. I don't want to presume it means Tony is town (he could be politician still?) but I'm also not going to rush in to revote him when he could be providing evidence of his towniness.

linki @quin - I agree, at least that he could have inherited it today. In such a situation, Tony and DrWilgy would have to be the remaining two StrexCorp indulging in a bold play, no?

I'm not 100 percent filled in with the Tony/Wilgy relationship, but I'd call something like that unlikely this early in the game.

I'm still tossing around whether I think the entire tape is being written by the one person, or if it's a mix of nijuu flavour and Cecil input. I wanted to compare syntax between tapes.

Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:42 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:41 pm I'm still tossing around whether I think the entire tape is being written by the one person, or if it's a mix of nijuu flavour and Cecil input. I wanted to compare syntax between tapes.
Ninja's colour is pinkish purple. I assume she is writing none of the black part.

If the whole tape is by one person, then I would be shocked if Eloh had the time to write the tapes before she died. It also concerns me that she knew that the vote mechanics would be changed on Day 3. She could have just made that whole thing up, but that's not something I think she'd do.

I don't imagine there's any way to confirm that the fourth votes were ever actually discounted, is there?

Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:48 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:46 pm
Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:42 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:41 pm I'm still tossing around whether I think the entire tape is being written by the one person, or if it's a mix of nijuu flavour and Cecil input. I wanted to compare syntax between tapes.
Ninja's colour is pinkish purple. I assume she is writing none of the black part.
If the whole tape is by one person, then I would be shocked if Eloh had the time to write the tapes before she died. It also concerns me that she knew that the vote mechanics would be changed on Day 3. She could have just made that whole thing up, but that's not something I think she'd do.

I don't imagine there's any way to confirm that the fourth votes were ever actually discounted, is there?
None at all. Ninja refused to answer any questions related to it. The only place it is mentioned in a ninja post is in BLACK writing. My guess is it was Wilgy messing with our heads. It seems like something he would do.

I have absolutely no doubt that making everyone believe in a fake mechanic is something Wilgy would do.

Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:49 pm Elo didn't mention it before that message, did she? If she did... that's pretty important information.

Nothing stands out.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:49 am
Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:45 am
Dom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:30 am To be fair, I have posted about a multitude of other things and it has gone mostly ignored.
I've gone mostly ignored this entire game, unless I raise a stink about it. (I wonder why)
In the trump stuff, I think there is merit to the fact the curse encourages people to ignore you (because it's hard to separate true suspicion from aggrandising). But, how about a synopsis of where you are at with each person?
I mean, I'm ignoring Rico's emojis because it's rather unhelpful and they give me a headache. But I don't recall Poppy getting ignored.

I recently went through several people. I guess I can do that again.

Was Rico's emoji shtick a curse?

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:55 am well you got me there dom

this is what i get for skimming

linki: no that's his neutral post style im pretty sure, Quin

It's the least burdening on the eyes but not the best at conveying emotions since emojis only have so many you can use

I scrolled his posts supa quick. He went from emoji's to Poppy's on Day 2, though.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:11 am I have no clue what Rico is getting at.

He doesn't like Chinese Food.

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:31 am @Quin maybe there's a different reason he doesn't like Chinese food

I think you might be right.

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:49 am Although quin, the only people here who played in AGACF is me, quin, Epi, and Rico.

But I mean one could've just as easily viewed the game. Just like the curse references. Either that or re just coincidence that rico quoted the Chinese food horoscope and coincidence it would apply to him

Oh. You were actually going somewhere with this.

I like that.

I mean, you're definitely reading too much into it, but still.

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:30 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:28 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:05 pm Also jack, I think quin has been much more helpful than rico. I'd like you to prove it otherwise
Rico's one post regarding LC vote analysis is more useful than anything Wuin has said so far.

I mean Quin replaced in so it's not his fault he has little content but let's not pretend he's produced more than Rico.
Quin is essentially outed as a confirmed town.

Like I said, your reasoning on all fronts is shit (Rico looks worse than everyone you mentioned, and his 'one post' is not more helpful than what any of them have brought to the table, and to suggest otherwise is spin only. Even his LC reads post was not helpful, merely interpretable). So lets forget trying to justify your awful rationale for why you so vehemently support ricochet and get to the guts of the matter.

u wot

Golden, when you say that I'm essentially confirmed town, is this based on Neverwhere's actions, or mine?

I'm leaning towards voting Jack atm. His assumption that Eloh flipped bad has my attention especially given all this controversy about her actual alignment. I'm in the 'Eloh was bad' camp.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:27 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:24 pm I'm leaning towards voting Jack atm. His assumption that Eloh flipped bad has my attention especially given all this controversy about her actual alignment. I'm in the 'Eloh was bad' camp.

Maybe the Faceless Old Woman will insanify you into speaking like a normal person tomorrow.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:30 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:28 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:27 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:24 pm I'm leaning towards voting Jack atm. His assumption that Eloh flipped bad has my attention especially given all this controversy about her actual alignment. I'm in the 'Eloh was bad' camp.

Maybe the Faceless Old Woman will insanify you into speaking like a normal person tomorrow.

Thoughts on Jack? The pairing between Jack and yourself seems to be unrequited.

A caveat to the idea that Jack is a teammate of bad Eloh is that it's unlikely that Jack wouldn't have known about a false flip ahead of time.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:55 pm i just want someone to tell me where the Eloh is a dragon theory comes from.

The Day 4 tape.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:57 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:55 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:55 pm i just want someone to tell me where the Eloh is a dragon theory comes from.
The Day 4 tape.
Which presumably comes from a player not even caught up, with no info gathering powers.

So again, where does the theory come from?

Could make a big difference.

It's supposedly WTNV canon. The dragon can shape shift, or rather appear as someone else as per the tape.

If the current host posts are from Cecil, being caught up or not having info gathering powers should matter little. Someone flipped as their role, no?

nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:44 pm Effective immediately, Quin will be replacing Neverwhere and will not be on the Day 4 poll. Please form a semicircle around him and shout "Interloper!" while pointing, as is the friendly, mandatory way of welcoming strangers here in Night Vale.

Also, I thought the mayor was the one who took me off the poll.

So much for feeling welcome

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:05 pm We really don't think Eloh was Cecil because of the length of the posts + how busy Eloh is.

Also very unlikely because the information about the fourth vote not counting on Day 3 came from Cecil. At face value I can't see how that role could have that information, so it might even be fake. Eloh is not the type to screw with her own alignment with fake mechanics.

Interesting change of pace for me to only have town reads at an EoD. I'm not voting Wilgy, Tony or Dom. The Wilgy/Tony thing reads town, and Tony really put himself out there with all his cryptic posts if it was a gambit. Dom just feels genuine, and is more thorough in comparison to my perception of his scum game.

I've currently ruled out Jack and Epi from at least one scum team. I think Jack's mistake in thinking Eloh flipped bad was an honest mistake, because a teammate would know ahead of time. For him to know and still make the mistake intentionally for the attention is tinfoil. At this time, it doesn't seem likely Epi would self-silence. So just for the sake of probability, I'm unlikely to vote either of them.

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:50 pm Quin thinks his name off poll because Pamela. :hmmm:

Not anymore I don't.

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:53 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:53 pm
Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:50 pm Quin thinks his name off poll because Pamela. :hmmm:
Not anymore I don't.
My note is around the fact that you ever did in the first place.

Did you think I was Pamela?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:52 pm Has boomslang posted today?

Nope.

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:57 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:54 pm
Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:53 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:53 pm
Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:50 pm Quin thinks his name off poll because Pamela. :hmmm:
Not anymore I don't.
My note is around the fact that you ever did in the first place.
Did you think I was Pamela?
I was hoping for evidence that you could be, rather than evidence you weren't.

I'm not Pamela.

Within speedchuck's 5, I'd feel comfortable arguing against a Jack lynch. In my mind he's at least cleared from whichever team Eloh was on.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:07 pmWhy is sprit bad?

I forgot my interaction with sprityo last night. I got a semblance of a town read there too.

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:11 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:09 pm Within speedchuck's 5, I'd feel comfortable arguing against a Jack lynch. In my mind he's at least cleared from whichever team Eloh was on.
What has caused you to flop from 'jack could be on elos team' to 'jack is not on elos team'?

My most recent post on it:

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:49 pm Interesting change of pace for me to only have town reads at an EoD. I'm not voting Wilgy, Tony or Dom. The Wilgy/Tony thing reads town, and Tony really put himself out there with all his cryptic posts if it was a gambit. Dom just feels genuine, and is more thorough in comparison to my perception of his scum game.

I've currently ruled out Jack and Epi from at least one scum team. I think Jack's mistake in thinking Eloh flipped bad was an honest mistake, because a teammate would know ahead of time. For him to know and still make the mistake intentionally for the attention is tinfoil. At this time, it doesn't seem likely Epi would self-silence. So just for the sake of probability, I'm unlikely to vote either of them.

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