The Syndicate

At any rate, I plan on doing a few things unrelated to Turnip Head later.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:09 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 pm I just don’t know what you mean by “secret lynch”, Jackofhearts2005. Like, what exactly does that scenario look like? We’re talking openly about it right now. This is a terrible secret.
Long Con said there are two lynches today. I just quoted it for you.

You know what would help is if I paid attention.

First instinct is that yeah, we definitely should try to load up on a consensus suspect via secret vote. I’d hold off on determining a name just yet though.
Even with two incomplete competing mafia teams, they have some power to coordinate and destabilize the secret vote if we’re not confident in our choices. Well, the one team does. Poor anti-monitor.

I’m the anti-epi. Corona hysteria got me in a weird mood today and I wasn’t feeling this mafia thing. I’ll be back at it tomorrow.

Who are we privately lynching?

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine for poll management

Kickstarting my brain back into mafia action by finally looking at sabie. Better late than never.

Spoiler: show

Her first on-topic post, and her first remarks constituting a read are directed at Jack. Her stance is non-committal, skeptical about both the votes and jack himself, it would appear. If I have to make a judgment, I'd say she's more favorable to Jack than opposed to him ("I see the votes on jack and I'm not sure.") nutella1.0 is mentioned and gets a similar, but less lengthy, treatment. "Nutella can be difficult to read" is pretty open-ended, but its function here seem to be to leave the door open for future suspicion.
Nanook1.0 gets another negatively-slanted shrug. She caps the post off with a questioning glance at Jay, but no judgment is passed. She is perturbed by her placement in the orange section of the infamous Day 0 reads list, which may be an indicator that she and Jay are not aligned: if they're teammates she has no reason to be bothered by this.
Four players are mentioned in this post. Two are still alive. Jack is the only one treated somewhat favorable, Nutella and nanook (dead in a murder-suicide) get similar negative slants, while Jay gets a sort of timid side-eye.

Spoiler: show

This is a direct response to a question from SVS about Jack, nanook, and radishes. I've color coded sabie's response according to my interpretation of her positions.
Jack is green, getting an explicit nod of support from sabie. That could be indicative of a partnership, but it feels a little bold for that. The yellow bit about nutella/jack goes nowhere.
Nanook receives implicit shade based on a previous game in which he was mafia and fooled sabie. We know that nanook1.0 and sabie were not partners, so I am noting this just to call attention to her strategy, especially in comparison to the next point. When sabie is made to talk about Radishes (her teammate) she gives a pronounced shrug. At least in the case of her other shrugs, there seems to be a direction ("Nutella brings up a good point..."; "I thought I had a good idea of Jack's gameplay..."). But with Radishes she goes absolutely nowhere: "I don't know radishes I'm not familiar... I missed where the case began." Sabie plays the cluelessness card when asked to talk about her partner.

Spoiler: show

A new interpretation of sabie's handling of Jack: she is propping him to justify a vote for nutella. I find this type of interaction to be more indicative of no teammate connection, but it's not impossible to read it the other way. Tentative good look for Jack.

Spoiler: show

Hard negative stance against speedchuck. Good look for him.
Her handling of Jack here again has the feel of non-alignment. Her stance is getting convoluted, and it's as if Jack has pulled the rug out from under her. If they're teammates, this is a sloppy moment. Not impossible, but I'll call it unlikely for now.

Spoiler: show

Here she is responding to a direct question from jack about nutella. If they're teammates this question is kind of obligatory from Jack so no points there. sabie's response is also standard. Hm. This post is pretty stiff on both ends and I can read it as a teammate interaction more easily than the above posts. Keeping an eye on it, I guess.

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Generic prod from Jay about the nutella vote. This is similar to Jack's question above. The "I've explained" qualifier might signal annoyance, which might be a good look for Jay but that's a very minor point.

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Sabie again appears to be bothered by Jay's interrogation. Good look, I think. But something about this particular exchange strikes me as having the potential to be staged. I don't need to read it that way, but it's there and I can't ignore the possibility. Maybe it's because I don't remember anything developing out of this exchange. Looking back on it now, I feel like it could have been seen as a bigger deal. But that's hindsight talking. I dunno, I'll store this away in the back of my mind for now.

Spoiler: show

Empty namedrops on colin, tranq, and myself. Okay. Thank you for the well-wishes several weeks ago, sabie.

Spoiler: show

Prods nanook2.0 to expand on his suspicions against SVS (town) and Colin (unknown). Given sabie's tentative handling of Radishes earlier, I'm inclined to say her strategy is to avoid conflict when it comes to her partners. Good look for Colin in that regard. Here is a pretty generic response to Colin about A Thing. It tells me nothing, but it exists.

Spoiler: show

Color coded analysis again. She starts off by supporting Tranq's suspicion against Turnip Head (good look for TH to not be on this team), but then goes into a pretty overt-but-not-explicit shading of Tranq, which also envelopes drago (who would become nutella2.0). Good look for Drago. "Colin is meh" is snuck in, which I'm inclined to view favorably for Colin again, but the way it's positioned in this post kind of hides the read, so I feel less strongly about Colin than tranq here. She doesn't really go anywhere in her G-man comments again, which recalls her earlier handling of Radishes some. There is implied reason to suspect him, but she quickly backs off of it by acknowledging his schedule conflicts.

Spoiler: show

I like this color coding thing, so I'm gonna stick with it. Three hard negative reads in a row kick off this post: Colin, Turnip Head, Nanook2.0. We know nanook was town. I am heavily inclined to say that Colin and TH are not on sabie's team, but I don't think anyone's been arguing for that anyway. At least not in TH's case.
Then she gives a total shrug at Jay. "I don't know... I thought he looked like his usual self... Is he different when he's bad?" This non-handling is reminiscent of her Day 0 treatment of Radishes. That feeling in the back of my head has been elevated to a mild sensation here. Jay is suddenly somebody to keep an eye on.
Her most positive read in this post is on me (cool), which she then spins into yet another shrug on Radishes.

Spoiler: show

A couple of generic prods, one directed at Michelle regarding TH. The other directed at Ted regarding me. Okay. This is the first time ted or michelle have come up in this ISO, for the record. I get nothing out of this post other than another point in the "TH is not on sabie's team" ledger.

Spoiler: show

More colors. I want to start by highlighting sabie's handling of SVS, just as another glimpse at her strategy: This post is framed at the outset as pro-SVS ("I agree with a lot of svs' reads"), and is then capped off with paragraph that reads as fairly positive, until you get to the end when she drops an "I could go either way on her" on her. That conclusion seems entirely out of place, not just in this post but in sabie's ISO at large. It looks like an effort to suddenly and jarringly open the door to a potential lynch candidate without any precedent. This take on SVS does not belong in sabie's post history. What this suggests to me is that sabie's strategy is to look for any lynch options that are not members of her own team. Her gloves-off handling of radishes (and complete absence of sig in this ISO so far) suggest that she was trying not to put any attention on her partners.

Spoiler: show

pro-juliets, anti-sprit. See above.

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Shades Colin while questioning TH. I highly doubt either of them are on sabie's team and am willing to ignore any future mentions.

Spoiler: show

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:37 am
S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:02 am
juliets wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:55 am Sorry, S~V~S I am jumping in the shower and out the door to the gym. Quickly though, there were debates about Colin and Mac so I would look at them in ISO's if you can.
Thanks, Jules. I tend to have better comprehension reading thread exchanges than ISOs in general, I find I miss less nuance that way, but I will ISO them as well. Colin was a red read for me, but only as a default since I did not remember much of what he had said, and Mac was a red as well since he had not had anything to say after nutella flipped non-baddie, and his whole thing there reminded me of bad Mac (although I tend to baddie read him in general, so my opinion is not always the most valuable there), so they were both on my list.

Also, if there is anything I have to address, let me know.

Also, can anyone give me their take on why sprit voted for Nanook? Out of all the votes I see up there, that is the one that surprises me the most.
I was also busy yesterday but I had a chance to read up on what's been happening. Colin has been getting suspicion for not doing much of anything. A few people namely sloonei and spirit said colin often gets mislynched for this so they were wary of voting him so soon. TH said they're suspicious for defending him. I didn't see that as defending him as much as just being cautious of voting him too early without giving him a chance. I understand this because I get mislynched for my weird playstyle too sometimes but I haven't seen anything from colin that convinces me he's town. I had pointed out that sloonei and spirit haven't been their usual selves in the beginning of the game but I feel like sloonei has been more towny than spirit. Sloonei questioned me on my post and what I meant was if TH was suspecting him because of his difference in playstyle I could have understood that more than sayi g he's bad fir defending colin. I realize I worded that weird.

Sig had a big long post saying he was limited to one post and he thought mac did it. Mac disappeared for awhile and when he came back to find suspicion on him he was in full force mac mode and saying he's going to be mislynched and saying he won all these sockys so he is a good player and how could anyone accuse him and usual mac jokey stuff. He gave some reads and threw some suspicion at jack. I plan to read through his ISO and compare to some other games. He can be pretty tricky to read and as he pointed out he is a good player. I'm wondering if the more emotional mac is a scummy mac that got annoyed he was caught or just a civ mac being annoyed that anyone would suspect him.

I'm trying to enjoy my weekend but I plan to read through the ISOs and I'll be around in and out.

The first paragraph is mostly just a restatement of the previous post. Colin and TH are still not on sabie's team. Someone else can analyze her handling of me if they want.

What's significant about this post is the mention of sig. This is the first time all game sabie has acknowledged him, and it's... nothing. She simply uses sig as a stepping stone to get to Mac. Sabie says nothing about radishes when he's brought up. Sabie only acknowledges sig as somebody who enables her to suspect Mac. Sabie is avoiding her partners.

Spoiler: show

Unsolicited comments about G-man. This post is ambivalent. Refer to the color-code index to see that sabie's two comments about Da G reflecting differing viewpoints. But considering the way sabie has handled her two confirmed partners, I am interested in this post because she is jumping into the conversation about G-man without being prompted. In running with my theory of minimal contact, I'm gonna call this a good look for G. The same post gets repeated later, but without the favorable inflection at the end. An even better look for G. Again.. G-man does not seem like a compatible teammate.

Spoiler: show

Sabie responds positively to Jay's shade against Tranq. I believe I made a remark about a very similar response to this same post by Mac when I ISO'd him the other day. The point then was that I couldn't see Mafia Mac responding to Mafia Jay in that light. I still believe in that point, but it resonates less with me in the instance of Sabie & Jay than it did when it was Mac & Jay, for some reason. There is more shared experience between Mac and Jay, perhaps, and a coordinated strike like this would be uncharacteristic for them. I can't say the same with much confidence about sabie. I would not go so far as to call this a bad look for Jay, but I struggle to award it the same good look that I did on a separate occasion.
There is also a somewhat negatively-framed inquiry about Jack. Tentative good look for him.

She votes for Mac Day 2, but there are no new developments so I'll just note this post and move on. Her next post continues to shade TH. They're not partners.

Spoiler: show

Great work from this guy making sabie give a bunch of town reads. And, whoa, everyone she named is still alive! Ted is the most tentative of these reads, for whatever that's worth. I'm unsure whether or not I feel like sabie would have named a partner in this list. sig was still alive at the time and is not named. That voice in the back of my head is also telling me to point out that Jay is not on this list.

Spoiler: show

A very sarcastic and dismissive response to ted's suspicion. This feels like genuine hostility by sabie's standards, and based on her handling of sig/radishes, I'm inclined to view it as a good look for ted.

Spoiler: show

A less hostile response to Jack, but sabie still seems a bit flustered. Good look for Jack, but not as strong as for ted.

And that's it. The most surprising development by far here is that Jay feels like a compatible teammate. I don't want to leap to that conclusion: for Jay to be the anti-monitor, he will have had to bussed one of his partners (Radishes) pretty hard from the beginning, and then also contributed to sig's lynch. I don't recall Jay being big in the anti-sabie crowd, but the suspicion against her was barely getting off the ground when she got taken out.

Bearing in mind sabie's handling of her two confirmed partners, my rainbow based purely on these results would be:

Turnip Head
Colin
Jack
Tranq
G-man
ted
speedchuck
Juliets
Tony
Epi
Dom
Michelle
Jay

Those are not the results I was expecting. Michelle is in the bottom tier with Jay because she's almost entirely absent. The tier above jay and michelle are players who are mostly absent, but were named as town reads by sabie in that one post. Juliets could probably be bumped up to the lower green tier because sabie had several interactions with her that looked natural (ie, not staged teammate interactions), but she had very little to say about juliets. I'd have a hard time being convinced to vote for juliets at this stage.

TH and Colin are top green reads there, but obviously that's just a read on their compatibility as anti-monitor team members. My analysis of Mac turned up much different results.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:38 pm Michelle and sabie are never teammates in this game

Tell me why

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:44 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:38 pm
Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:38 pm Michelle and sabie are never teammates in this game
Tell me why
I shot Michelle with my bow but it was redirected to sabie. Sig was the architect, he'd never switch two teammates

Good point.

Commissioner JimmyJay & Sabie

Spoiler: show

Literally "nothing." I don't object, sabie hadn't said a word yet, I think.

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Sabie's in a bag of oranges. Okay. So are Radishes and sig, for what it's worth. Does JaggedJimmyJay shade his entire team on Day 1 if he's bad?

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This exchange was the origin of my bad tinglies. My concern was that it felt stiff and underwhelming. Further analysis indicates that this went Absolutely Nowhere. These posts are at the end of Page 3 of Jay's ISO. Page 4 produces 0 results when I Ctrl+f sabie.

Spoiler: show

This tells me nothing.

"High compatibility" with Radishes based on interactive analysis. He's not wrong. Reinforced in a rainbow.

Spoiler: show

Incidental. Meh.

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sabie's name appears in a post in which Jay tells sig he is full of shit. That's something. Jay was on sig's case pretty hard, for what it's worth. But in this exercise, sabie is the relevant name. Sabie is dead by this point in Jay's ISO anyway. She does come up again as a name here and follows that up with an inconclusive read on Jack/sabie. I don't disagree with it. Later on he provides this favorable read on Jack based on sabie's handling of him. I don't disagree again.

Sabie comes up some more as an incidental name, but we're well past her involvement in this game at that point. This was underwhelming, but sabie's presence in this game was light and her exit was abrupt. There is nothing here that would scream at me one way or another. The two most significant points go in opposite directions though: Jay's lack of interrogation of sabie over her nutella vote looked soft, but his stepping in to defend Jack from accusations of being aligned with sabie is something that would seem unnecessary for anti-monitor Jay. Idk, this is weird.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:01 pm I don't recall paying a great deal of attention to sabie early in the game when my attention was elsewhere. She was, bless her heart, well in the blend. Our exchanges were likely limited to rare instances when we'd both happen to be active in the thread at the same time. After she looked crappy in my Radish interaction reviews I would have gone somewhere with it -- but she died. So hooray.

Yes. You'll note that even my bottom tier on the rainbow got this color as opposed to this one or this one. It is difficult to discern a whole lot from sabie's posts. Her handling of the two dead teammates was minimal, so my strategy for identifying the third relies on looking out for who's not present in her posts. Your name came up more than others, but she continually had nothing to say about you and you have been a bigger presence than most of those others.

daylight saving's got me all messed up. I feel like it should only be 5 right now but my clock says 7. We seem locked in on Colin vs. speedchuck at the moment. Has anyone come up with any new points on either of them that I might have missed? If we had to pivot to a third name (assuming TH is our secret lynch), who would it be?

Dom, Tony, and Epi are the names I'm least confident in after you (if we're accepting TH's claim about targeting Michelle). She only mentioned those three in a list of town reads when I specifically asked her for them.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:11 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:09 pm daylight saving's got me all messed up. I feel like it should only be 5 right now but my clock says 7. We seem locked in on Colin vs. speedchuck at the moment. Has anyone come up with any new points on either of them that I might have missed? If we had to pivot to a third name (assuming TH is our secret lynch), who would it be?
ted

I can dig it. He had some Mac compatibility and was independently suspicion at least once.

I see that he is not currently voting. [mention]tedxtr[/mention] who you gonna vote for?

Dom wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:18 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:13 pm Dom, Tony, and Epi are the names I'm least confident in after you (if we're accepting TH's claim about targeting Michelle). She only mentioned those three in a list of town reads when I specifically asked her for them.
Which baddie team am I on then?

You would be on sabie's team here. I'm not saying I believe that to be the case, just that there was nothing conclusive to clear you in her ISO.

[VOTE: tedxtr] aubergine

I do not have a read on Epi outside of the interactive analysis that I've done. That's unusual.

Radishes interactive rainbow:
Jay
Turnip Head
juliets
Jack
Michelle
Epi
Dom
G-man
speedchuck
Tranq
Colin
tedxtr
Tony

sabie interactive rainbow:
Turnip Head
Colin
Jack
Tranq
G-man
ted
speedchuck
Juliets
Tony
Epi
Dom
Michelle
Jay

Tony, Epi, and Dom are the three that are not positive on either list. Neat.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:22 pm @Sloonei please scan the most recent few posts from Colin and speed and report your impressions.

If I was going to pick one over the other based on the previous page alone, I'd choose speedchuck. Colin's posts don't say much, but his tone is reminiscent of all those times I've driven the train over him. speedchuck was a bit more aggressive in his self-defense and I didn't find any of it particularly inspiring. He bends and shrugs at a lot of points against him and his reads weren't tremendous.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:57 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:22 pm I do not have a read on Epi outside of the interactive analysis that I've done. That's unusual.
i wonder if it's worrisome. Unusual is bad or plain neutral?

Unusual is unusual. I have no reason to feel good about it, but I don't have a specific reason to feel bad about Epi. Which is the point.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:02 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:58 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:57 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:22 pm I do not have a read on Epi outside of the interactive analysis that I've done. That's unusual.
i wonder if it's worrisome. Unusual is bad or plain neutral?
Unusual is unusual. I have no reason to feel good about it, but I don't have a specific reason to feel bad about Epi. Which is the point.
Here's an opportunity to assess both Epignosis and Colin

It feels a bit out of character for Epi -- not to make a case, but to make that case.

Looking at it in isolation, I find nothing out of character about it. Why does it strike you that way?

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:12 pm Like is unusual to be awake at 2 am but it's not good, nor bad

speak for yourself. my bedtime has been 3 AM since the clocks jumped forward.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:15 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:14 pm Looking at it in isolation, I find nothing out of character about it. Why does it strike you that way?
First, there were times where I flat did not understand what he was saying. I had to read it a few times. Maybe he was drunk.

And the points he made didn't look like the kinds of things Epignosis usually finds interesting. They were token or generic. That doesn't make them bad points or wrong, but it didn't look like his usual shtick.

Time stamp says 10:22. What do you mean "maybe"?

actually a quick view at his iso reveals that he declared himself to be sober in the very next post. Maybe that's the problem. I clicked on his ISO to see if you'd raised these points and he'd responded to them already. That is not the case. I'll wait for him to come along and do that.

When I have caught Epi in the past, it has been because he looks to have a deliberate plan in the thread. On those occasions, he has come into the game and made posts that all seem to be angling for something in particular. I have not observed that happening in this game, but I've also never given less energy to reading Epignosis in a game before. I'll ISO him at some point. I too need to put some energy in other places right now. I'll have at least half an eye on this thing until the deadline. If anyone feels like kicking ted's tires that'd be neat, but we appear to be plunging into a colin lynch. I'm not as inspired to stop it as I was several days ago.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:22 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:26 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:22 pm Observers: Commence to comment.
I'm keen to lynch Colin. On that front, sure. I agree with your conclusion. One question:

You noted Colin agreeing with Dyslexicon about a point against Tony. You said you sought follow-up. Later you observed Colin's Day 2 vote for Tony and said you didn't know why he placed it. And lastly you mentioned that the "Tony stuff you were looking for" was vague.

Please expand on all of that. It looks disjointed to me, and at times I struggled to follow what you were saying in general within that case.
Colin didn't bother to interact with his suspects. That's a red flag. A vote doesn't mean anything to me, especially with more than one mafia. I was looking for Colin to parse his suspicion of Tony.

This is where I am. I'll read the rest after this in about an hour. And get roaring drunk. Again.

I feel like I just spoke this post into existence.

Talk to me about ted and speedchuck.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:24 pm When I have caught Epi in the past, it has been because he looks to have a deliberate plan in the thread. On those occasions, he has come into the game and made posts that all seem to be angling for something in particular. I have not observed that happening in this game, but I've also never given less energy to reading Epignosis in a game before. I'll ISO him at some point. I too need to put some energy in other places right now. I'll have at least half an eye on this thing until the deadline. If anyone feels like kicking ted's tires that'd be neat, but we appear to be plunging into a colin lynch. I'm not as inspired to stop it as I was several days ago.
He townread sig for a long while and then casually and quietly dropped him, if that helps

who is "he"?

I also don't want to lose sight of my sabie ISO. Does anyone think that Jay actually makes sense as the anti-monitor? My gut says no, but that analysis suggests otherwise. I would like to hear other opinions on this.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:07 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:30 pm
Turnip Head wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:24 pm When I have caught Epi in the past, it has been because he looks to have a deliberate plan in the thread. On those occasions, he has come into the game and made posts that all seem to be angling for something in particular. I have not observed that happening in this game, but I've also never given less energy to reading Epignosis in a game before. I'll ISO him at some point. I too need to put some energy in other places right now. I'll have at least half an eye on this thing until the deadline. If anyone feels like kicking ted's tires that'd be neat, but we appear to be plunging into a colin lynch. I'm not as inspired to stop it as I was several days ago.
He townread sig for a long while and then casually and quietly dropped him, if that helps
who is "he"?
Epi, the subject of your paragraph

I also talked about ted and colin, but noted

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:41 pm I've read everything but Sloonei's latest novel. I am current other than that.

I really don’t expect everyone to read all that nonsense. The rainbow list at the end tells you what’s essential.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:46 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:45 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:41 pm I've read everything but Sloonei's latest novel. I am current other than that.
I really don’t expect everyone to read all that nonsense. The rainbow list at the end tells you what’s essential.
Then why do you publish it?

For reference and my own sake.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:46 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:45 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:41 pm I've read everything but Sloonei's latest novel. I am current other than that.
I really don’t expect everyone to read all that nonsense. The rainbow list at the end tells you what’s essential.
Sloonei, could you very honestly do a slight addendum where you analyze Sabie’s views on you?

Nope. Be my guest if you’d like to do it.

My secret vote is on turnip head, as that seems to be the consensus.

Jack, Dom, and juliets are not on Mac’s team. Everyone else is on the table as far as I’m concerned.

The anti-monitor is between Jay, Tony, Epi, or Dom for me. Dom seems the least likely of the bunch. I have no explicit reason to eliminate G-man, but I am not feeling that it’s him.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:19 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:43 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:05 am Don't know if this was addressed, but I was thinking...If sig potentially designed the levels, would he have risked sending the anti-monitor in the main thread , the only place where lynched people die?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:14 am ok i assume that's the list i wanted to look in cuz i remember that account telling us tsp and someone else was with sig

i think, ultimately, sig would've used the 3 man level for shading and bet on this very wifom. if we bit it, it takes a 50/50 to lynch his anti-monitor which would seem dumb from him.

I don't know if he'd risk it by putting him in main thread, so I think that he'd just place him in Michelle's hood thing.

I'll take a look at those peeps. But names that stick out upon PoE and shit are probably JJJ / Gman / Speed
Michelle
I remember Sloonei had in the dream level a similar idea.

Jay would leapfrog you as my anti-monitor suspect if this is the case.

Actually maybe there was something to my Michelle theory. I see no harm in bringing it up again. Who the hell knows at this point?
For reference:

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:43 am This is my Michelle theory, for those who were not in our thread yesterday:

When the day began, Michelle had compiled a long chain of posts from speedchuck from this thread (the one we are all currently posting in) which she used to push a suspicion against The Chuck (and she would later walk back a fair amount of this case in a way that might have been dishonest, but that's not my main issue).

Speedchuck was one of just five people that Michelle shared that thread with. He also had apparently been singled out as a suspect by her coming into that day. This seemed either convenient or coincidental to me.

Separately, I had a theory that the events of yesterday were triggered by sig, as his role (The Architect) is derived from Inception Mafia, it contains secrets, and he was almost a sure bet to be lynched that coming day, so there would be no better time for him to trigger the hypothetical Inception event in his role card. IF this is the case (and that is an enormous if), then there are two people who would have known that the thread split was coming: sig and sig's partner. In the original Inception Mafia game (which Jay and I co-hosted), the mafia team was allowed limited control over which players submerged onto each dream level.

If sig's partner was preparing to submerge into a lower dream level, they would likely want to take a player with them who they could use as a scapegoat for suspicion, or someone who is unlikely to cast suspicion on them in particular. speedchuck could conceivably be a viable candidate for both of those things. So the theory is this: Michelle, as sig's partner/the anti-monitor, was aware that she was going to submerge into a smaller thread, and brought speedchuck with her, having pre-planned an attack against him for that day.

There are holes in this theory that I acknowledge: given that there was only one lynch yesterday (the top level/player with the most votes across all three levels) there should not have been much urgency for Michelle to need a scapegoat like this; it's also not at all impossible that Michelle suspected speedchuck and wanted to ISO him, and it was purely coincidental that they ended up in the same thread together. But the fact that Michelle had singularly prepared to launch an investigation against speedchuck yesterday (I asked her if she had compiled posts on anybody else and she said no) and then ended up in the same small group as him stood out to me as a remarkable coincidence.

But if the theory is that the anti-monitor was on level 2, then this thread’s evidence points more to Jay or G-man, I think. Certainly not speedchuck, and I’d be shocked if it was juliets. Maybe it is her.

Tony was in limbo with sig.

[VOTE: tedxtr] aubergine

Because the needle never moved on him yesterday.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:18 am I cannot provide a good reason to remove speedchuck from the suspect pool. All I have there is a feeling that he's in a similar spot to Colin, and that he's the most likely bait in the poll at present.

On the flip side of this, yesterday boiled down to a choice between speedchuck and colin. Colin was chosen. It's not impossible that speed is town. But numbers are dwindling and there are confident town reads outside of him.

I’m not indie.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:20 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:34 am [VOTE: tedxtr] aubergine

Because the needle never moved on him yesterday.
What is this even saying? What are your thoughts on G-Man and why am I a better lynch than him?

It means that you were named as a suspect but your wagon never gained any momentum.

G-man is a player who is still technically in my POE, but I do not believe he is mafia. He checks all the boxes I want him to be checking. Sabie pushed a little too much against him for me to think he’s the anti-monitor, and he didn’t look compatible with Mac either.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:01 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:54 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:20 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:34 am [VOTE: tedxtr] aubergine

Because the needle never moved on him yesterday.
What is this even saying? What are your thoughts on G-Man and why am I a better lynch than him?
It means that you were named as a suspect but your wagon never gained any momentum.

G-man is a player who is still technically in my POE, but I do not believe he is mafia. He checks all the boxes I want him to be checking. Sabie pushed a little too much against him for me to think he’s the anti-monitor, and he didn’t look compatible with Mac either.
So you're suggesting my scum partners are some masterminds and we set the thread momentum?

This almost never is the case, but I guess I'll take the fearmongering as a compliment and I'll be sending it further to my non-existent FBI corrupt intel division.

Wut? We had three people up for a lynch yesterday and not much movement happened outside those three names. Two of them were lynched and were town. I don’t think it’s far-fetched to be wary of people who were potentially viable but never got off the ground.

There’s also process of elimination to consider here. There are a handful of people I’d remove from my poop of Mac-teammate-suspects. You’re not one of them.

Jay voters: what team is he on?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:07 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:04 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:01 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:54 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:20 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:34 am [VOTE: tedxtr] aubergine

Because the needle never moved on him yesterday.
What is this even saying? What are your thoughts on G-Man and why am I a better lynch than him?
It means that you were named as a suspect but your wagon never gained any momentum.

G-man is a player who is still technically in my POE, but I do not believe he is mafia. He checks all the boxes I want him to be checking. Sabie pushed a little too much against him for me to think he’s the anti-monitor, and he didn’t look compatible with Mac either.
So you're suggesting my scum partners are some masterminds and we set the thread momentum?

This almost never is the case, but I guess I'll take the fearmongering as a compliment and I'll be sending it further to my non-existent FBI corrupt intel division.
Wut? We had three people up for a lynch yesterday and not much movement happened outside those three names. Two of them were lynched and were town. I don’t think it’s far-fetched to be wary of people who were potentially viable but never got off the ground.

There’s also process of elimination to consider here. There are a handful of people I’d remove from my poop of Mac-teammate-suspects. You’re not one of them.
What's your INDIVIDUAL read of me?

Most of my reads right now are derived from interactive analysis. You are a player that Macdougall had almost nothing to say about, despite you having a lot of (favorable) things to say about him. That stands out to me.

Why is it impossible to believe that your hypothetical mafia team could have manipulated the thread/poll momentum yesterday?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:19 pm If Sloonei isn't the indy, I've little means of discerning who is. My next guess would be speedchuck, for his similarly low-emotion, play-from-a-safe-distance tone.

why would I be indy?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:19 pm Idgi. If mac had nothing to say to me but I was defending him, do you think that's how he treats a partner? Or someone that he wants to set up after his death? I'm obviously biased in this but I'm trying to understand why you're not reaching the same conclusion, did you make this analysis somewhere / is your explanation out there?

Mafia, in theory, anecdotally, have little to no power in shifting momentum from a player to another, it's ultimately the town's choice. and even if they pulled it off, it would out them in the process, which isn't worth it.

I mean, yeah, I did tons of work to arrive at these reads. But you were a single name in a wall of text, so I don't blame you for missing it. Here is the third and final installment in my Mac trilogy. You defended him, but he mostly ignored you and slapped an empty town read on you towards the end of his time in the game. I feel like Scum Mac would have been more inclined to interact with Town Ted if Town Ted was making such a fuss about not lynching Scum Mac.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:24 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:20 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:19 pm If Sloonei isn't the indy, I've little means of discerning who is. My next guess would be speedchuck, for his similarly low-emotion, play-from-a-safe-distance tone.
why would I be indy?
When Tony brought up the idea yesterday, it made a lot of sense to me. Your opening to the game was a bit awkward, and it took me a while longer to settle into a comfort zone with you than it typically has in the past. I think your hunt has appeared authentic, and it has been insightful for both teams -- that suggests you're not a mafioso and has driven my civilian read accordingly. It applies as well to an independent though. I also think that in your hunt you haven't been particularly aggressive. You've provided your takes and left others to do whatever they will do with them. That's suitable to a survival win condition, if that's what Akechi has. You've contributed positively without making yourself a premier night kill target.

The delay in my settling-in was fever related. I can't speak to the rest other than to say I've been a bit distracted. I am sharing the reads that I have and trying to move the thread in positive directions. But you don't seem to disagree with that, so whatever. Just don't lynch me.

[mention]tedxtr[/mention] which team is g-man on?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:03 pm so I read the sloonei case and I still can't understand why he's making the leap that I'm scum and not just town, the evidence is circumstantial at best. Who's scum other than me sloonei?

Observe the rainbow. Two of the bottom names were wrong, so it is likely flawed somewhere. But you and speedchuck remain among the oranges. Epi and Tranq were difficult to place. I would not be totally shocked if one of the light greens was also bad. I think Tony would be my first choice among them, but that's based largely on my general skepticism toward him as a player.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:10 pm ted's question is valid one. The best evidence that I am not a Master teamer is that I don't fit with anyone else in this damn poll.

If you are bad, you are the anti-monitor. I think.

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