The Syndicate

nutella & michelle

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:51 pm Tony's entrance is ehhhh

G's is good if a little heavy-handed but I respect that he wants some meta. G-Man Michelle tends to ask people a lot of questions (kinda like juliets actually now that I think about it). LLD I've only played with once and the game is still going so I probably shouldn't talk about it. Tony and sabie I've played with a handful more times but couldn't really give you much specific description of their styles, I think they both vary a fair amount.

Quin is schooling the rest of us on the aussie slang. Idk if I'll even try. Uh, who's coming to my sausage sizzle?

nutella kicks things off with a non-judgmental assessment of Michelle's perceived habits. Okay.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:02 pm I don't know how to read anyone lol. I feel weirdly confident in my ability to read Michelle despite only having played with her 4 times, while I am so uncertain on the people I've been playing with for years

This is a complicated post. Would Mafia #1 proclaim their confidence at reading Mafia #2 right off the bat? That's setting yourself up for danger down the line. Going off memory (I'll find out soon enough), nutella never seemed to settle on a strong read of michelle one way or the other, so this initial statement is not borne out in the present game, but that does not necessarily mean that it came from a dishonest place.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:13 pm I also have identified a specific town tell from Michelle from the few games I have played with her, will see if it happens

I'd raise the same point as above, but this time we're cranking it up to 11. If nutella is michelle's partner then she's practically begging us to choose a wine glass. I am inclined to say that the potential benefit of posts like this is too obscure to outweigh the potential harm.

She takes a firm anti-Tony stance toward the end of Day 1, in support of Michelle (and myself). Noted.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:21 pm I don't think I've quite seen the specific thing I was referring to from Michelle, but I feel okay about her in general. Her questioning and reads look pretty typical.

Here we return to the Super WIFOM. This read is a bit of a shrug so I can't give nutella too much credit for it. In spite of her previous claim of confidence in reading Michelle, she's produced no read on Michelle. Here is another shrug. Here is a generic prod.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:33 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:03 am nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

The bottom paragraph feels a bit limp, as though nutella is the one who knows Michelle will flip bad.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:41 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:35 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 am See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

Since you are paying attention nutella, talk about this.

Could be something. Could be that she's just working from a townread of Sloonei and seeing potential pocket behavior. I've definitely done similar things as town, it doesn't require TMI to see things like that if you have the corresponding read biases on those players.

I'll take it into consideration though. Michelle could be scum here. I don't feel too strongly about her yet.

I am noticing a trend. If I were asked to summarize nutella's handling of Michelle on Day 2 in a word, I'd say timid. She looks like she's afraid to commit to or say anything significant about Michelle. Where's the fire and the spice we're all so used to seeing from nutella?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:43 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:36 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:33 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:03 am nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

Why do you townread her?

It's still not a strong read but her tone sounds genuine and solvey in a way I'm used to Michelle being, like asking lots of nitpicky questions and focusing a lot on exchanges with players she suspects. She can get kinda tunnelly which might be why you didn't like her Tony progression while I thought it was consistent with her town style.

mmm, this might have described Michelle early on Day 1, but not so much late in that phase, and definitely not at all on Day 2.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:14 pm I feel okay about michelle's response. Staying on sabie to hopefully keep eod interesting

Why?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:02 pm So... Quin/LC w/w anyone?

[VOTE: quin] aubergine what the heck let's see

She votes for Quin after I'd moved my pair of votes to the red headed australian. She stuck there til the end of the day.

I feel worse about nutella than anyone else I've look at so far in this exercise. The most positive point in her favor is her early assertions that she feels confident when reading Michelle, but that is largely (though not completely) nullified by her later inability to produce a read on her. It felt at times on Day 2 like nutella was afraid to offer a read, and she focused more scrutiny on the alternative wagons throughout the day. Not Good.

Quin & Michelle

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:49 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:43 am

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:39 pm nah, jack is fair dinkum right now.

google said you think Jack is honest, is that correct?

nah yeah he's a good bloke i reckon

Just confirming that this exchange still exists. I don't know what to do with it. It's an interaction. It's casual but on-topic.

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:47 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:40 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:34 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:45 pm Michelle and Quin are teammates.

yeah nah, been on the goon have ya?

Oh hello. Talk about why this theory is incorrect, if you could.

no. it's shit.

This also exists. Quin would engage with it no further. I think the theory can be picked back up now.

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:14 am probably not gonna be here for eod, so [VOTE: nutella] aubergine. sloonei would also work. night.

This vote is totally isolated. No one else was on nutella. It doesn't seem like Quin really had a grasp on what was happening today. As such it is difficult to make any judgments here. He's a player in this game who has offered a few scant opinions on isolated topics. He does not seem to possess a comprehensive view of this game and has no meaningful interactions with Michelle. So... suspect by absence of reasons to not be a suspect.

Last but not least, Sabie & Michelle

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:31 pm I might as well look at sabie's vote as well.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:33 am I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

I notice sabie seems to support Michelle's point about Tony's lynch math being "sketchy", but I continue to not know why that is the case. Sabie, what did you find suspicious about Tony counting the number of mislynches? And how does this lynch change the way you see Jack and nutella, if at all?

Michelle is not directly involved here, but sabie seems to pursue the same angle of suspicion against Tony as Michelle on Day 1.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:05 am I actually just suck at this game. I was not suggesting that nutella wanted to take them out because they suspected her. I thought nutella was suspicious from the beginning. Both jack and Tony had suspected her so I put my vote there for now. I was more so saying maybe she's worth another look since both of them seemed pretty confident she was bad and she was the main suspicion that both of them shared. Apparently, that point didn't make sense to anyone, but me.
The suspicions on michelle make sense and people have good points on her. She was another one I was going to look at.

She vaguely agrees with unspecified arguments against Michelle.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:10 pm Sorry all didnt mean to be all crazy about everything. I just get frustrated sometimes. Not anyone's fault. I'll come back to this a little later when I'm not all stressed from work stuff.
In response to sloonei I've been town reading him and gman for thier efforts in trying to get discussion going and make cases.

LC seems to be putting in little effort this game so I'm not sure about him. I thought he usually did more but maybe that's his usual? I recall his reasoning for tony suspicion being because sloonei said so. Michelle kind of just says a few things here and there without really saying anything. I think she definitely could be bad. And I thought nutella was sketchy initially but no one else seems to agree with that so.

I don't know if I've seen enough from quin or dom to think anything of. Definitley nothing on lady? She had like one post?
DF is trying to participate at the urging of jack so good on him for that.
Epi is just kinda throwing votes around wherever he feels like.

This is a brief reason for suspicion against Michelle. I can't do much with it, but I appreciate that sabie at least attempts to take a stance on every player in this post. Michelle is clearly in the negative pile.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 pm Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

She votes for Michelle here. I thought Michelle's response to this post looked like a mafia member searching for a way to build up to a case against their accuser, but that never really materialized. Regardless, my response is a favorable one for sabie.

Given that sabie was the primary counterwagon to Michelle, and that each of them went somewhat aggressively after the other, I am inclined to read sabie as town. It is not impossible that they simply ended up being the two main suspects, but seeing as there was absolutely no resistance to the idea of lynching one or the other of them today, I find that to be even less likely. I'm willing to call sabie a town read for now.

Updated rainbow with those interactive reads fresh in my mind:

Epignosis
DFaraday
Dom
sabie
G-man
The Player slot occupied by Lady LambdaDelta
Quin
Long Con
nutella

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:16 am

sabie12 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:14 am Sorry I wasn't around for end of day I was playing d and d. Glad we got a good result!
I feel like we need to hear more from quin LC and DF. Quin and LC especially seem to be putting little effort and not making a lot of sense with some of their posts. oh and lady if she ever decides to play this game.
I have to sleep but I'll be around as much as I can be.

My wife and I used to play S & M.

Too bad she doesn't have D & D.

I uh, don't know what to do with this information.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:54 am nutella made the same mistake Michelle made. Her accusation against me depended upon Michelle being bad, and therefore she knows Michelle was bad.

I already made this point on page 694 of my report, didn’t you read the full document?

But yes, those big words are big red mark on nutella. Even without the lack of development of any read on Michelle, that post alone would be enough to make her a suspect.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:16 am mates if nutella not cracking the shits at my piss up of a suspicion until everyone else did isn't proof enough that she's a crook then i may as well just be a headless chook

town nutella is better than that

I understood about 40% of these words, but I’m willing to say that if nutella is bad then quin is not.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:55 pm Mmmm

Fascinating.

What is fascinating?

well since everyone else is posting...

Excellent job, [mention]sabie12[/mention]. I doubt I would have had your patience, but you pulled that claim out at the perfect time and kept yourself out of harms way long enough to lock it down.

Good game to everyone. Dom had me fooled for sure. Thanks for hosting, Mac.

I thought Epi was the cop after Day 1. I reasoned that he would never play the way he was playing if he was bad, and that his ultra lazy shtick (early on) was a gimmick to avoid being nightkilled while he quietly ID'd everyone.

just over 2 weeks from signups opening to game end. that's some efficient mafia.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:20 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:17 am When did you check me?

2 nights ago

What were all your checks?

Mac never officially declared the game over.

That was a real nail biter