The Syndicate

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:04 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:37 pm I’m pretty sure this is solid reasoning. I think on probability people who take lines like Michelle are more likely scum and people who take lines like Sloonei are more likely town.
Disagree? Y/N

Yes about me.
I thought is wolfy that you're doing the math day 1 because this may be a thing to pose in town carring.

Also I disagree with any playstyle comparison.

Sloonei's post was townish by itself and the mention of him being probably asleep at Eod and honestly pointing that his vote will last, I think this is villagery.

So you take my post and his post, make a comparison and find me scum? This is scumtactic from you and I notice a bad progression of you on me.

Michelle's progression on Tony loses me a bit. She deems my play "townish" while contrasting it to Tony's "wolfy" play, but I don't know what qualifies either of our actions to earn those labels. In particular, I'm not sure why it's suspicious for Tony to have an eye on the math involved in this game. It makes sense to want to know how many mislynches we have available to us. (Preemptive note: I called Tony out for the apparent emptiness of his mechanics talk, not for the mechanics talk itself).

Michelle's read of Tony here doesn't look like it amounts to much more than hand-waving. "You did a thing and that's bad", with no justification of why she feels that way.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:27 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:17 pm There is so little to pry on here.
Rainbowish from memory:

Me
Jack
Dom
DF
Sloonei
Sabie
LC
G-Man
——————————
Epi
Michelle
Nutella

Sloonei lower than DF in these reads comes as odd for me, Tony never said nothing about DF as town iirc while he had a post comparing me and Sloonei.

And Quin is missing

Lot of reads coming out of nowhere, and his agenda for me is visible.

I could say the exact same about you, Michelle.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:36 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:37 am I didn’t know Quin was in the game until after I posted the list. And I really appreciate how you think my agenda is visible because of the positioning of two people. What’s my agenda? Save my teammate DF? Lynch Sloonei? Well if my agenda is lynch Sloonei then why did I say he was townier than you? That would have been a mistake.

your agenda is to shade me. I think your attitude towards Sloonei is pockety .

We now know that Tony was not nefariously angling to shade Michelle, and I don't think this was an accurate read in the moment either. Tony is being lynched here, with the counterwagons of Jack and nutella. He's hard defending Jack and advocating for a nutella lynch. There isn't much reason for an evil Tony to start devoting energy to shading and antagonizing a civilian Michelle in this moment. He would be trying to convince her to change her vote.

If I'd been awake I expect that my vote would have moved, but there's no use saying that now. I'm not a fan of Michelle's progression here.

[mention]Michelle[/mention] why did you feel like Tony's actions were "wolfy"? What specifically made you feel that way about him, and why did you think his agenda was visible? Who are your next suspects going into Day 2?

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:22 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:49 pm @G-Man why did you not vote?

Nodded off on the couch after company left late last night, and I didn’t set an alarm to wake me up before the deadline. I hadn’t ISO’d everyone by the time I had to start making dinner, so I held my vote until later. Later just never came.

I believe this.
Who do you think you would have voted for based on the ISOs you did do?

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:57 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:52 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:51 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:05 pm Yeah, if the Tony lynch was uniquely scum orchestrated it means that both Jack and nutella are bad. Nah.

There could easily be one or two bad guys on any of the wagons though. I come out of this lynch feeling worse about Michelle.

You were the one who convinced me that Tony looked bad.

And?

And so I don't know why you only name those two players in the scum orchestrated Lynch, shouldn't your name be on that list as well?

No. I name them because in order for the Tony lynch to have made sense as a mafia team orchestration, that would have to mean that there were no civilian bandgwagons available prior to him. Therefore nutella and jack were both mafia wagons. I do not believe that to be the case.

Most of the tony votes seem to have piled in while I was asleep. I think it was just sabie and I on him when I left for the night. I've talked about why I don't like Michelle's progression. Let's look at Dom and Epi because I'm bored with my school reading right now.

Dom:

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:17 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:04 pm Some Tony things:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:19 am I haven’t played a game with a setup like this is a while lemme recap for myself. Three bad lynches allowed, find scum within six days.

Why does this post exist? Michelle also called him out for this but my beef is slightly different. It's not that he's doing math, it's that he's putting these words into the thread. They're isolated, not really attached to or inviting in any further discussion. He just plopped some cursory mechanical chatter into the thread and moved on.

His progression on Dom also looks strange. Is strange bad? Let's see.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:48 pm I don't want to lynch Dom right now. That makes me paranoid.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:55 pm nutella, you've said that you're good at reading Dom in the past I think. What should I think here?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:07 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:10 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:55 pm nutella, you've said that you're good at reading Dom in the past I think. What should I think here?

I think he's town. He's doing his typical thing of gathered reactions to lots of little things.

Okay thanks for your opinion.

anyone want to dissent?

I do not know what the initial stance on Dom is supposed to reflect. Do Tony and Dom have a particular history together where the former tends to suspect the latter? He then calls on nutella to offer her allegedly expert read, indicating that Tony doesn't have a particular history with Dom, but then beckons anyone else to disagree with her. In all of this, Tony has done nothing resembling independent work to read Dom. He has observed Dom's presence in the game and asked a specific player to comment on it, then he has sought dissenting opinions all across Australia.

What is your read on Dom, Tony? Does something stand out about him one way or the other? Why are you so interested in him here?

No.

And I don't like that I didn't see a response to this.
[VOTE: Tony] aubergine

Spicy

Why does Tony's supposed lack of an answer to that question warrant a final critical vote in the Day 1 poll? Does it mean anything that Tony had indeed answered the question?

This doesn't look deserving of a final vote. I can make the excuse for Dom that there weren't many strong reads going around on Day 1 at all, but at a certain point we need to start exploring why that is the case. A vote like this can be seen as complacent, for maintaining the status quo and keeping stronger reads from developing. Maybe.

Epi:

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:59 am Yeah, not voting nutella because Jack said so.

[VOTE: Tony Stark Prime] aubergine

There is nothing here. Epi gave us nothing to work with Day 1. I could go either way with that. I could see evil epi skating by on the knowledge that people aren't going to lynch him Day 1, knowing that the small size of this game means that he (and his team) don't need to keep us fooled for that long. This allows him to just be a stick in the mud for a few days while the civilians struggle to get off the ground. Or he's just busy and is moving his vote around whimsically as he sees fit.

I might as well look at sabie's vote as well.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:33 am I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

I notice sabie seems to support Michelle's point about Tony's lynch math being "sketchy", but I continue to not know why that is the case. Sabie, what did you find suspicious about Tony counting the number of mislynches? And how does this lynch change the way you see Jack and nutella, if at all?

Note: Lady LambdaDelta is also a player in this game.

It occurs to me that the last time I played with Tony, I said that I couldn’t wait to play more games with him.

So then I lynched him on Day 1.

Western hemisphere supremacy wins out again

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:02 am Every time I see someone doing in day 1 the math of gow many mislynches are needed I see it as a red flag. Because usually mafia are doing so, to show they care about the game and they focus on it. It's also a way of posting something. Yes I didn't make an essay about it, I posted only raw thoughts. For me writing more is not easy and I am usually catching wolves for the wrong reason. I was wrong this time but also Tony didn't cooperate with me.

Why? Can you tell me a time in another game where you caught mafia specifically doing this?
I've argued in the past that "suspecting people for talking about mechanics is more suspicious than talking about mechanics." I'm gonna stick to that here. It is not my experience that a player who talks about mechanics is more likely to be bad than good.

We now know that Tony was not nefariously angling to shade Michelle, and I don't think this was an accurate read in the moment either. Tony is being lynched here, with the counterwagons of Jack and nutella. He's hard defending Jack and advocating for a nutella lynch. There isn't much reason for an evil Tony to start devoting energy to shading and antagonizing a civilian Michelle in this moment. He would be trying to convince her to change her vote.

If I'd been awake I expect that my vote would have moved, but there's no use saying that now. I'm not a fan of Michelle's progression here.

@Michelle why did you feel like Tony's actions were "wolfy"? What specifically made you feel that way about him, and why did you think his agenda was visible? Who are your next suspects going into Day 2?

The green part: he didn't do this, he was not voting me but I was from the posts understading his first suspect just he didn't move the vote. That means for me he was pleased with the wagons and I had a town read for both Jack and Nutella after their fight.

I know. That is my point. If Tony was bad and you were good, there would have been no strategic reason for him to try to shade you there. In that moment, you are voting for him and he is in danger of being lynched. He is interacting with you directly. If self-preservation is his top concern, he's going to try to get you to change your vote. Instead he accused you of being bad. That is a good look.

This is underexplained indeed and if you notice I posted after the mod posted the lynch, I was still in the idea of interactimg with him.
I didn't notice the Eod is so close. Midday Eod never happened for me. Even European friendly at 11 pm for me are extremely odd because MU has horrible Eods at 2-5 am for me. I thought we still have time to play.

I believe this. The Day 1 deadline was at an unusual time.

I see the point of asking the lynching wagon about their votes and I saw you posted your own guilt about this mislynch. You passed though quick over it. Isn't the way you are accusing everyone a way to cover your own skin?

Feel free to ask me any questions you have about my Day 1 vote. I'm not capable of investigating myself and I know what my motivations were anyway.
A civilian was lynched on Day 1 after I initiated a case against them. My instinct is to assume that at least one mafia followed that case. I'm trying to identify who that might be.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:41 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:40 pm of course lmao

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine

tell me why you aint full o shit

I had a BM promptly at 2pm EST and have not had anything to eat since then.

What do you think Michelle’s alignment is in this game? What do you think nutella’s alignment is?

G-Man wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:54 pm Nice kill choice baddies. It gives me a sense of direction to start my day with.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

Why Quin?

Can you at least tell us what direction the water in your toilet flows?

Did anyone save the poll?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:39 pm Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:43 pm Did anyone save the poll?

I know that the Tony voters were me, sabie, Dom, Epi, and Michelle.
I know that G-man and LLD did not vote.
I don’t remember how the other two wagons looked, but the voting record should still exist in the thread.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:04 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:49 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:39 pm Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

So you don't think the kill was a frame of me? That was my first thought, and that sabie either bought it or is promoting the narrative that I'm scum.

It’s possible. Several things are possible. I’m just trying to understand sabie’s perspective right now.

I talked about why I think Michelle’s progression on Tony was bogus here and I’d like to hear what others have to say about her.

Michelle responded here.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:50 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:51 pm [VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

I do not like his Jack vote.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:46 am I think I’d add Epi to my Do Not Lynch list for today. His play feels entirely uncalculated and nonchalant. These are not things I associate with evil epi.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:49 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:41 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:40 pm of course lmao

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine

tell me why you aint full o shit

I had a BM promptly at 2pm EST and have not had anything to eat since then.

What do you think Michelle’s alignment is in this game? What do you think nutella’s alignment is?

@Sloonei I take it you still townread Epi as per the second post here? Any additional thoughts? I'm not inspired by his posts so far this phase, but by his own admission he's not heavily invested in putting much effort into this game so I probably shouldn't read alignment into his laziness.

I guess I can't fault him for sheeping you, you're one of my stronger town reads so far. But part of me says I shouldn't put it past him to buddy you and hide behind the lazy approach.

Right now I'm just trusting that Epi would be more likely to phone it in as a civilian than as mafia.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:53 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:27 pm I talked about why I think Michelle’s progression on Tony was bogus here and I’d like to hear what others have to say about her.

Michelle responded here.

The only part of your gripes with her I really got was your point that scum are more likely to accuse people for focusing on mechanics rather than being the ones to bring up mechanics themselves. I think I still lean town on Michelle by default but it's not that strong so I'm hoping your dialogue with her will develop more today, I expect if she's town it'll shine through to me and if it doesn't I may join you.

The part that concerns me most is her suggestion that she believed Tony to have had a clear agenda of shading her at the end of Day 1. I get that we can all tend to feel like we're being unfairly persecuted if somebody accuses us of something that's not there, but I simply don't see anything that looks like what Michelle was alleging toward the end of Day 1.

Like I've said a couple of times, if Tony was scum there, his goal would have been to try to get civilians on his side, not to antagonize one of the only active civilians in the thread at that time. Michelle seemed to confidently assert her belief that Tony had a clear agenda. I don't believe that any level of confidence should have existed at all on that point.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:23 pm I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:20 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:08 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:23 pm I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

You got any thoughts on non-sabie players?

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:35 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:22 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:20 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:08 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:23 pm I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

You got any thoughts on non-sabie players?

I think nutella's ok, I don't suspect her. G-Man too.

Why?

What about Michelle and Dom?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:45 pm Michelle and Quin are teammates.

What’s this about Quin, Robin?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:05 am I actually just suck at this game. I was not suggesting that nutella wanted to take them out because they suspected her. I thought nutella was suspicious from the beginning. Both jack and Tony had suspected her so I put my vote there for now. I was more so saying maybe she's worth another look since both of them seemed pretty confident she was bad and she was the main suspicion that both of them shared. Apparently, that point didn't make sense to anyone, but me.
The suspicions on michelle make sense and people have good points on her. She was another one I was going to look at.

Who do you town read and why?

Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:23 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:05 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:53 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:27 pm I talked about why I think Michelle’s progression on Tony was bogus here and I’d like to hear what others have to say about her.

Michelle responded here.

The only part of your gripes with her I really got was your point that scum are more likely to accuse people for focusing on mechanics rather than being the ones to bring up mechanics themselves. I think I still lean town on Michelle by default but it's not that strong so I'm hoping your dialogue with her will develop more today, I expect if she's town it'll shine through to me and if it doesn't I may join you.

The part that concerns me most is her suggestion that she believed Tony to have had a clear agenda of shading her at the end of Day 1. I get that we can all tend to feel like we're being unfairly persecuted if somebody accuses us of something that's not there, but I simply don't see anything that looks like what Michelle was alleging toward the end of Day 1.

Like I've said a couple of times, if Tony was scum there, his goal would have been to try to get civilians on his side, not to antagonize one of the only active civilians in the thread at that time. Michelle seemed to confidently assert her belief that Tony had a clear agenda. I don't believe that any level of confidence should have existed at all on that point.

You are talking about my confidence, this is a playstyle thing. I explained what I expected from him. This kind of things he did I noticed at scum. I am sorry he was villager, if you think my lynch will avenge him go ahead.

But why did you expect that from him? I understand what your suspicions, but I do not understand why you had them. What specifically made you feel like Tony had an agenda to frame you?

Complaining about how I am confident, your post below isn't TMI?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:34 pmJack is town.

How were you so confident?

No. That’s just me reading a player as town.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:21 am

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:31 am Not caught up yet, but here’s a thought: why did the Tony train develop?

Both Tony and Jack were civvie, leaving nutella as the only unknown from Day 1. Here are some scenarios:

1. Nutella is civvie. The baddies don’t need to offer a third option when the two lead trains are mislynches. Work smarter, not harder. The Tony train was a civvie concoction with one or two baddies following the civvies’ leads.

2. Nutella is a civvie. The baddies launch the Tony train because Jack v. nutella grew stale. Not necessary, but the Jack kill could steer us toward a Day 2 mislynch by focusing on nutella.

3. Nutella is a baddie. The Tony train was started by civvies, and one or two baddies were willing to pad the poll to avoid a randomized tie-breaker after momentum against Jack stalled.

4. Nutella is a baddie. Sensing the pressure on Jack lightening, the baddies launch the Tony train in the hopes of creating a late-phase mislynch at best, and a messy situation involving last-minute vote-hopping at worst.

Consider each scenario. Who are your three baddies in each one?

I still feel like crap but I will do my best.

1. sabie is bad. Maybe Michelle. Maybe LC.
2. sabie is bad. Sloonei is bad. I look not great here too. Neither does Epi or Michelle.
3. Sabie and Michelle are bad. Nutella is their partner.
4. Epi/Sloonei are nutella's partners.

Which scenario do you find most likely?

[mention]sabie12[/mention] I asked earlier who you town read and you never gave me an answer (I understand why not. It was a small post at the end of an old page and you’ve had a lot to respond to here). I’d still like to hear who you think is good. If you’re struggling to identify bad guys, then maybe it’ll help to look for the opposite of that first.

[mention]G-Man[/mention] what has been your mindset while compiling these ISOs? What are you looking for or hoping to achieve?

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:42 pm Now for the last living player ISO-

SLOONEI:
-This is his first substantive post of the game, which troubles me. He was pretty chatty early but it was a lot of fluff. Maybe this is Sloonei hitting his stride not quite halfway through the day phase. It just seems like there was a lot of useless chatter before this. I don't disagree with his mindset on Jack at the time though.

Hold up, I just skimmed my own ISO and I have a major objection to this point. The post G-man highlights here is absolutely not my first substantive post. By my count, it was my 9th substantive post. Unless you define "substantive" as "declaration of a definitive read one way or the other." But I had approximately 8 posts prior to this one that were intended to advance the state of the game to a point where reads could be developed; there are no direct reads in those posts because the game was still getting off the ground. I was asking questions and poking people as they came into the thread. G-man's description suggests that my early ISO is loaded with fluff. There are some jokes, sure. But there are also posts like this one or this one which are definitely not fluff. So basically G-man started his ISO of me off with a false premise and I am now going to virtually expose my tongue at him in disapproval:

Continuing to read G-man's ISO and objecting strongly to his points against me.

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:42 pm Now for the last living player ISO-

SLOONEI:

-Here he questions nutella on why she thinks Jack's posts on DF are not a good look. He proceeds to vote for Long Con because he only has one post and it happens to be bland. Twelve hours later, Sloonei drops this with no explanation. When asked for an explanation, her replies with this. I'll have to see where this its into the larger narrative of Day 1, but it's a striking shift in perception. If adverbs are the devil, then Sloonei is possessed. He then votes for Epi for his vote on Jack. But Epi gives no justification for his vote on Jack and Slooeni doesn't prod him for one. The equation feels incomplete.

First of all, what is the "striking shift in perception" you speak of here? Is it that I came out with a town read of Jack after having previously voted for him? I voted for him extremely early on Day 1. It was a generic Day 1 prod. It wasn't based on a hard suspicion; my vote for Jack was a tactic to make him and others talk about things. I think it had some success. The "shift in perception" is just me developing a read on a player as the game begins to unfold: Mafia 101. Your dig about adverbs means nothing.
I'd also add that my votes for Long Con and Epi came from the same place as my vote for Jack earlier in the day. My early-phase votes seldom mean anything other than that I'd like to highlight certain topics of discussion. This is especially true on Day 1 of any game. It quickly became clear that Epi is playing a tight-lipped game. I am familiar enough with Epi to know that there's no use in grilling him when that is the case.

-Five hours later, he votes for Tony (which is where his vote stays) with no explanation. Jack asked Slooeni why he voted for Tony and gets no response. Sloonei asks sabie what she thinks of me and Tony. It isn't until hours later that he lays more details on Tony out. By then there's momentum building on Tony. He makes sure to mention that another player called Tony out on something and then goes into a wordy explanation. His Tony-Dom bit seems hollow to me as well.

Big time objection to this post is the suggestion that I voted Tony without explanation and the implication that I then ignored questions about it. If you look at the format and time stamps of my posts, you'll see that I was out of the thread for 3 hours after I voted for Tony, and that my posts around that time were short one-liners. This is because I was not home and only had my phone to post on. When I got home and had access to my laptop I provided a detailed explanation of my vote for Tony in my very next post, as soon as I was able to. The way you frame this, it is as if I was avoiding talking about Tony. That is absolutely no the case. (You'll remember in the signup thread that I mentioned I'd be a bit scarce for the first few days of this game.)

-Here, Sloonei takes a stance against lynching Jack or nutella, leaving Tony as the most viable option of the people with votes at the time. After a soft positive plug for Michelle, he says he doesn't have strong feelings about anyone else. He intends to leave his vote on Tony and hopes that Tony and others can elaborate and elucidate everyone else to provide a sense of direction in the final hours.

This is all accurately reported. Do you have an interpretation of my actions?

-I think it's also the work of an opportunistic baddie to re-interpret the intent of a civvie that you spared from the lynch only to kill him at night to make yourself seem reasonable in hindsight. On my re-read I intend to determine if anyone thought Jack was pushing for a DF lynch. I just thought he was out of bounds for broadcasting to everyone that DF can't be trusted before DF even got into the game. That's also how I thought others viewed it.

I do not follow this point. Are you suggesting that I conspired to defend Jack just so I could turn around and kill him and be praised for having town-read him?
My interpretation of the case against Jack on Day 1 was that his prod of DF was being read as an attempt to establish justification to vote for him (DF) later on. I thought that was silly. I'd already expressed a town read on Jack for the same reason earlier in the day, which you pointed out above.

-Interesting about-face on Michelle after giving her a soft plug earlier.

What is interesting about it? Is interesting good or bad? What is your interpretation of these actions, G-man?

These objections are why I asked what your intentions are. I noticed on first glance that this ISO was predominantly negatively slanted (check out those adverbs), but I don't object to that practice: I'll often try to read people negatively while ISOing them to see what I can find. But the interpretations you provide of my actions here are slanted in a way that seems to be stretching or ignoring the truth, and the points which you cannot argue against are given no qualitative analysis whatsoever. So that has me concerned.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:42 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:03 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:33 am

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:13 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:43 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:39 pm Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Sounds like it was you. [VOTE: sabie] aubergine

Sounds like what was me? You also had thought jack and tony were potentially bad. I was saying tony and Jack both suspected nutella maybe we should consider they could have been right about her.

You killed Jack in order to frame nutella.

Kind of insulting that you think I'm that dumb. Maybe Im wrong on my read of nutella but if I killed jack why would I be that stupid obvious about it? And what motivation would I have to do so when I probably would have ended up voting jack because I thought he was bad. The only thing I'm bad at this game is reads so far which I'm not the only one.

I think you should try the wine in front of you.

Do you believe Sabie killed Jack for the purpose of framing nutella?

Theory: Jack was killed because he was suspected of being the cop.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:09 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:49 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:42 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:03 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:33 am

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:13 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:43 pm

Sounds like it was you. [VOTE: sabie] aubergine

Sounds like what was me? You also had thought jack and tony were potentially bad. I was saying tony and Jack both suspected nutella maybe we should consider they could have been right about her.

You killed Jack in order to frame nutella.

Kind of insulting that you think I'm that dumb. Maybe Im wrong on my read of nutella but if I killed jack why would I be that stupid obvious about it? And what motivation would I have to do so when I probably would have ended up voting jack because I thought he was bad. The only thing I'm bad at this game is reads so far which I'm not the only one.

I think you should try the wine in front of you.

Do you believe Sabie killed Jack for the purpose of framing nutella?

Are you intentionally twisting my words or nah?

I am doing nothing with your words. I am asking you a question. Why do you think Jack was killed? Do you think sabie is implicated in Jack's death? There, I split it up into two questions.

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:20 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:56 pm @G-Man what has been your mindset while compiling these ISOs? What are you looking for or hoping to achieve?

Nosing around to see what looks bad in isolation and then seeing if reading it all in context changes any of my perceptions.

I object less strongly to your ISO of me then. I still think some things were mischaracterized, but I don't mind that you're looking for bad behavior.

I think [mention]Quin[/mention] hasn't been given enough attention in this game, both in terms of his own activity and our reads on him. A few people have voiced some vague suspicion of him. I'd like to know what's up with that. I'd also like to know what he thinks of anything at all. Imma take a quick glance at his stuff.

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:17 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:51 pm Tony's entrance is ehhhh

G's is good if a little heavy-handed but I respect that he wants some meta. @G-Man Michelle tends to ask people a lot of questions (kinda like juliets actually now that I think about it). LLD I've only played with once and the game is still going so I probably shouldn't talk about it. Tony and sabie I've played with a handful more times but couldn't really give you much specific description of their styles, I think they both vary a fair amount.

Quin is schooling the rest of us on the aussie slang. Idk if I'll even try. Uh, who's coming to my sausage sizzle?

mate i would but let's just grab a couple of bunnings snags and get shitfaced instead

that bloody drongo sloonei is voting for me, you reckon he's a crook or nah?

IDK quin, what do you reckon?

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:39 pm nah, jack is fair dinkum right now.

This is a search-engine verified town read of Jack. Why did it exist, Quin?

Quin wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:54 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:11 am

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:49 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:43 am

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:39 pm nah, jack is fair dinkum right now.

google said you think Jack is honest, is that correct?

nah yeah he's a good bloke i reckon

Why do you reckon that, esteemed Australian Quin? Who do you reckon ain’t such good blokes?

mate its hard to roleplay and make choc a bloc posts at the same time

i reckon i'd call the coppers on nutella for starting the DF beef against jazza, that whole thing was a pissup.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I would never ever accuse a player of "hiding behind roleplay" unless they explicitly state that they are hiding behind roleplay like Quin does here. Quin is hiding behind roleplay. I'm taking this straight to the prime minister.
Also, I follow that he voted for nutella based on the way she handled the Jack/DF thing, but I do not see any explanation as to why Quin believed her to be had. That's the important part, and it's missing.

There's nothing else here. I award Quin no townie points. I am on the edge of my seat waiting for him to grace us with his gloriously australian presence asap.

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:34 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:45 pm Michelle and Quin are teammates.

yeah nah, been on the goon have ya?

Oh hello. Talk about why this theory is incorrect, if you could.

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:40 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:32 pm I think @Quin hasn't been given enough attention in this game, both in terms of his own activity and our reads on him. A few people have voiced some vague suspicion of him. I'd like to know what's up with that. I'd also like to know what he thinks of anything at all. Imma take a quick glance at his stuff.

on ya mate. i still reckon nutella's a bloody crook but i'm flat out and not about to start putting in the kind of effort you're gonna expect from me.

Gimme a few quick reasons why you think that.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:51 pm Sloonei-- my meaning was clear.

Why are you trying to assign it meaning it clearly did not have?

I literally just asked you a question. I'm not trying to assign meaning to anything. I am looking for you to provide your own meaning. I did not understand what you were saying to sabie. Your initial post seemed accusatory towards her, so I wanted to follow up on that.

What is your read on sabie?

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:49 pm 3. mate, that's it right there. she's a crook because what she did was disingenuous.

What is disingenuous about it?

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:03 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:57 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:51 pm Sloonei-- my meaning was clear.

Why are you trying to assign it meaning it clearly did not have?

I literally just asked you a question. I'm not trying to assign meaning to anything. I am looking for you to provide your own meaning. I did not understand what you were saying to sabie. Your initial post seemed accusatory towards her, so I wanted to follow up on that.

What is your read on sabie?

Maybe I'm not being clear-- I'm looking at nutella, sabie, and Michelle today.


I have voted Michelle for the time being.

Yes, but why? What are the main points against each of them? Is there anything you see in any of them that makes you think they could be town?

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:08 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:06 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:03 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:57 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:51 pm Sloonei-- my meaning was clear.

Why are you trying to assign it meaning it clearly did not have?

I literally just asked you a question. I'm not trying to assign meaning to anything. I am looking for you to provide your own meaning. I did not understand what you were saying to sabie. Your initial post seemed accusatory towards her, so I wanted to follow up on that.

What is your read on sabie?

Maybe I'm not being clear-- I'm looking at nutella, sabie, and Michelle today.


I have voted Michelle for the time being.

Yes, but why? What are the main points against each of them? Is there anything you see in any of them that makes you think they could be town?

I feel like I went through this with four scenarios earlier today. Didn't you prompt that?

I did not, but I asked a follow up. I'm just trying to advance the discussion beyond what has already been stated.

Fine, I'll do my own ISOs. With blackjack. And hookers.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:55 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:53 pm

DFaraday wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:51 pm Cheers, dingoes ate my baby, didgeridoo!

I can’t read anyone so I’m not going to pretend to try.

what're you gonna do instead?

Hopefully play the way I used to: Look at inconsistencies in players' statements, observe voting patterns (if I live that long), and examine how effects of role abilities could be linked to specific players.

My initial comment meant "I can't read anyone's meta." I've never been any good at differentiating a player's town game from their scum game, so I mostly just approach every player on a game by game basis.

This is DF's position statement for the game. Okay. Let's see how things go from here. Has he been looking for inconsistencies and such?

DFaraday wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:02 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:04 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:58 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:28 pm @DFaraday

You have a history of missing day phases and ending games with under 10 posts. I understand that irl stuff happens but It has become a pattern.

I would absolutely love to play a mafia game with you but that’s going to require you to play a mafia game with me as well.

Please post.

You're mafia.

No you.

If I was mafia, I wouldn’t start the game with a push on a guy who tends to get himself lynched all on his own.

Why wouldn't you? In a game with so few players, nearly all of which are vanilla, every town vote is significant. The usual approach of leaving me for late game won't fly here, since in a few phases I could conceivably pop back in after a hiatus and cast a deciding vote. It might be a better approach for the Mafia to go for a softball right out of the gate to get a jump on the numbers without really putting themselves on the line in the way they might in trying to fabricate a case on a more prominent player.

This post looks fine. DF's not gonna let himself get pushed around. If anyone should have reacted this way to Jack's prod, it's DF himself. I don't object to this as a Day 1 prod.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:12 am After catching up, I don't feel super strong about most of the field so far, but Nutella is a standout as seeming towny to me. She's offering thoughts on a lot of players, asking questions, not being waffly.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:20 am Why would I fucking buddy DF even if I was a wolf? There’s only about a 25% chance he even votes today.

I don’t believe you believe the things you are saying.

Gonna go ahead and vote [VOTE: Jack] aubergine for now.

This vote looks to be at least partially motivated by spite. I also appreciate the somewhat substantiated town read on nutella.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:17 am After their most recent exchange I'm feeling like TSP and Nutella are both town. At the very least, I doubt they're teammates because their lengthy misunderstanding discussion felt too meandering and inconsequential to be a planned interaction.

I like this post as well. The point he raises about Tony and nutella being unlikely partners is a good observation that doesn't need to be made if he's scum, and is nuanced enough to suggest it is a genuine thought.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:28 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:08 am I gave Michelle a town read because the energy in her posts seemed to be trending in a constructive direction, but I haven’t seen many other opinions on her besides Tony’s failing her for her response to his mechanic chatter. How do we read her?

I just went through her posts, and noticed a lot of questions and very little in the way of offering her own views. I've never played with her that I can recall; is this normal behaviour for her?

(I spelt "behaviour" the Australian way for the game. Also "spelt.")

This is a comment on michelle that seems to be colored slightly against her, but it's not clear as DF doesn't offer a definitive stance. I'd like a more definitive stance. But it is fair to note that he's never played with Michelle before.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:17 pm That sudden late surge of Tony votes wasn't suspicious at all.

Tell me more.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:55 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:04 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:49 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:39 pm Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

So you don't think the kill was a frame of me? That was my first thought, and that sabie either bought it or is promoting the narrative that I'm scum.

I think it's the second option. I actually began thinking there might be a Sabie/Michelle connection yesterday, but didn't want to say anything explicit during the night. My theory is that Michelle forced suspicion on Tony, then had to double down on it as their interaction continued, and Sabie just parroted her teammate's suspicion. Sabie's post today makes me feel even less warm towards her, since it's basically shouting, "WOW HOW SUSPICIOUS DOES THIS KILL MAKE NUTELLA LOOK, RIGHT GUYS?"

This read on Michelle reflects my own: that she expressed some suspicion on Tony and then doubled down on it later in the day to justify leaving her vote there. It's the reason my vote has been on her since the start of the day. I am hesitant to lump sabie in with michelle, but that's not out of the question.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:07 am Also, here are all of Sabie's posts regarding suspicions of Jack, Nutella, and Tony:

...

Her first two posts cast suspicion almost entirely on Jack and Nutella, while saying that Tony has been defensive of Jack and she could "go either way" on him. However, her next relevant post sees her apparently much more suspicious of Tony for discussing an alleged teammate (Jack), when this didn't seem so damning in her earlier assessment. Also note that this development and her subsequent vote follow shortly after Michelle's vote for Tony.

I'm going to [VOTE: Sabie] aubergine for now, but I don't discourage Michelle voters either.

This is not an unreasonable argument against sabie. It can definitely be argued that the timing of her tony vote was convenient.

Town read on DF. I like most of this content. But at the same time I should note that I'm not sure I've ever seen DF as mafia. It's possible we're seeing a different level of engagement of him because of his alignment. That is the only argument I can honestly put forth against him right now, and I don't have a direct reason to believe in it at this stage.

Dom:

Long multi-quote post #1. Highlights include:
Soft support of Michelle
Inquisitive response to Jack's vote and 's his DF prod

Grills Jack x2

Long multi-quote post #2:
Continued Jack grilling
Clarification RE: stance on Jack; attempting to develop a read. Good look, backed up by content.
Disagrees with DF's nutella vote
Prods nutella
Good sequence of interactions in this post, A+ for Dom.

Long multi-quote post #3:
Supports Jack and his vote for Long Con
Engages with Jack on a discussion about nutella
Continued commentary on nutella/LC with Jack.
Dom looks to be genuinely trying to interact with Jack and to develop reads alongside him. I like the optics of this post as well.

Dom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:18 pm I think both LC and Jack don’t look great here.

After a series of posts where Dom tries to engage Jack in discussion of the above reads, something has happened which turns Dom's view of Jack into a definitively bad one. He had not gone so far as to express a town read on Jack earlier, but the tone of his posts was conversational, suggesting that he was giving him the benefit of doubt. This marks the first clear indication of read on Jack in a while. The read appears to be very fluid, which is a good thing again.

Here I am interpreting "now your posts don't reek" as an affirmative town read on Jack towards the end of Day 1. He accompanies this with a vote for Tony after responding to my case on him. I commented during the night that this vote didn't feel like it carried the weight of a final vote, but it stayed. The odd deadline time may have had something to do with it. I maintain a little bit of skepticism here, but as this is the most prominent negative position I have been able to take towards Dom so far, I'm not assigning it much weight. I don't object to the vote itself, I just wish there was more to it. He would later own the vote.

And now we're back at today and the present reads which we've just been talking about. I would still like to hear more about how they developed, not because I doubt their authenticity, but because I trust [mention]Dom[/mention]'s voice right now and the more he can tell us about his thoughts the better off we'll be.

Town read on Dom, if that wasn't obvious.

Not much has changed, Robin.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:57 pm Can you tell me why I'm voting Michelle?

Beginning of our suspicion. The key point to me is the development of her read on Tony. Michelle was consistently, but not vehemently, opposed to both the Jack and nutella wagons on Day 1. She expressed some early suspicion of Tony, and then when the momentum started to turn against him she reaffirmed her suspicion with everything he said. But I'm unsure whether or not that development looked authentic, or if it looked like a mafia member who was relieved to have found a believable vote on Day 1.

She has not offered anything new so far on Day 2.