The Syndicate

Isn't @Oddmerta familiar with AL_sama from somewhere that isn't the Syndicate? If so, I'd love to hear what they think of AL_sama in this game. Give us a little context.

Tbh I never quite figured out how to read tutuu. Sometimes she said scummy things, sometimes she said town things. Combining this with how towny Hally looks right now is leaving me feeling pretty assured.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:09 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:03 pm Tbh I never quite figured out how to read tutuu. Sometimes she said scummy things, sometimes she said town things. Combining this with how towny Hally looks right now is leaving me feeling pretty assured.

i’m surprised you think i look that villagery. i don’t think i’ve been very obvious so far. why do you think i have?

It's mostly how you jumped right into asking questions and making reads almost immediately. I feel like someone replacing an anti-town role would more likely hang back and gauge the situation before diving right in. Specifically with the kind of thing you did in responding to me: Asking players their reasoning to their reads.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:24 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:16 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:09 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:03 pm Tbh I never quite figured out how to read tutuu. Sometimes she said scummy things, sometimes she said town things. Combining this with how towny Hally looks right now is leaving me feeling pretty assured.

i’m surprised you think i look that villagery. i don’t think i’ve been very obvious so far. why do you think i have?

It's mostly how you jumped right into asking questions and making reads almost immediately. I feel like someone replacing an anti-town role would more likely hang back and gauge the situation before diving right in. Specifically with the kind of thing you did in responding to me: Asking players their reasoning to their reads.

I strongly advise not giving Hally a townread for breathing.

I'm not. What gave you that impression?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:34 pm No vote yet from:

AL_sama
Dom
Strawhenge

I'll admit my dilemma: I have not gotten a town-read from the Marmot, and indeed lean scum on him still. However I feel stronger about AL_sama and TSP. If I vote for TSP, I potentially run us into a tie. If I vote for AL_sama, it's not likely enough that it'll gain momentum and surpass another vote leader.

So I either I vote with my reads and it either winds up a tie or doesn't do anything, or I vote with the bandwagon, which I'm loath to do.

Then I'm gonna [VOTE: AL_sama[/vote.] aubergine

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:45 pm I kindaa disagree with the al vote

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:37 pm Anyone want to take a stab at giving a read on this fellow right here?

I know Dom's not a sub, but a latecomer with a scum card and a lot to catch up on might post like this. Not suspicious enough to be anything but neutral as of now, but he definitely drew my gaze.

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:47 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:46 pm

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:45 pm I kindaa disagree with the al vote

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

I don't think he's really that scummy

He could be but there's a decently =rand chance he's just lhf imo

I haven't really looked at Marmot but that's a fine lynch imo

TSP is fine

Would be open to considering others

It's not AL_sama's low post count that's getting me; it's the tone of the posts. They don't bare the mark of low energy, but the mark of active evasion.

The more I've been thinking about it, the more I don't like Marmot as scum. There needs to be more town stuff, but the past hour has been giving me vibes. I don't think he's the right chop.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:56 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:56 pm The more I've been thinking about it, the more I don't like Marmot as scum. There needs to be more town stuff, but the past hour has been giving me vibes. I don't think he's the right chop.

please cfd this pls

I don't know what CFD means.

Oh whoa! And he was just starting to make me lean him back away from the scum side of my rainbow. His final day posts really read like a townie who had accepted his fate.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:07 pm I want to play mafia with y'all but I'm too tired to do any backreading right now

I feel that a lot right now. I can barely read things on a screen this evening.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:10 pm Marmot team POE in order

tedxtr
falcon
LC
Nanook
Al_sama
fingersplints
Dom
Strawhenge
Michelle

From splints down it is more they are here due to an absence of anything point away from them.

I can understand this, seeing as how I tried to advocate for him at the end there. I assure you that isn't the case, though. His fakeclaim seemed believable, probably because he claimed an less-common kind of role power, as opposed to cop or doctor claiming. That, and his general vibe near the end—all the 'GG town, you can do it'—right up until the EOD, it just felt like a genuine moment of a mis-chopped townie accepting their fate.

I went with my gut, but my gut was wrong.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:42 pm How about everyone come up with a list of names that you'd be willing to bet the game on being town? It can be as big or as small as you like. I'll start.

JaggedJimmyJay
MacDougall
Michelle
Strawhenge

I haven't caught up from pretty much the start of N1, but as it was at EOD (not in any sort of order):

JJJ
Alison
Michelle
MacDougall
falcon

I think for the sake of my brain being able to make it through the rest of this game, I think I need to take some time away from reading. I remember my capacity for midgame burnout back in my mafia prime; I for sure need to pay attention to how I'm feeling now.

Until D2, though, if anyone has any questions or concerns they want me to address, tag me and I'll at least check those.

BoKnows wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:13 pm

An Analysis of Marmot's Mentions

Earlier today I finished my analytics course so I thought it would be nice to do something analytically to celebrate. This is a basic breakdown of Marmot's posts and how he mentioned every single one of us. I went through Marmot's ISO and counted the number of times he quoted someone, and mentioned someone in one of his posts. I then categorized every single one of Martin's mentions into three categories; Null, Town, and Scum.

I categorized something a "Town" post/mention when Marmot labelled you as a town-read/lean, defended you, or gave you props for one of your posts.
I categorized something a "Scum" post/mention when Marmot scum read you, disliked what you were saying, or voted for you.
Null is everything else

It is important to keep in mind that the data doesn't fully account for sarcasm and tone. If Marmot said "I think BoKnows is scum for posting twice in a row", I would count that as a scum post. These numbers also do not show the progression of Marmots reads. These are just raw numbers that will visualize Marmot's interactions. In my opinion, these graphs will be best paired with all the analyses Jay already did.

Complete Overview

► Show Spoiler

Individual Breakdown
*Disclaimer: if you can't find a certain player all of their posts were considered null

► Show Spoiler

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:21 pm I don't know if I can believe that BoKnows opens a role PM with red lettering and proceeds to do something like this.

Yeah, I'm loath to clear someone for this much effort (I've seen scum put in just as much, if not more, before) but this definitely nudges him away from the scum-lean I had him on.

Oh fuck.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:06 pm[VOTE: tsp] aubergine

What about the NKs make you say this?

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:38 pm i’m confused. what is stopping the other three troopers from coming forward and becoming confirmed like odd? it seems broken if they’re all villagers, no?

That's my question too. That essentially makes a potential 4-person confirmed town team. Does that make sense in a multiball?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:14 pm What is the gameplan for this phase? What do we all plan on doing?

During N1 before I took a break, something beeped on my scumdar so I'm doing an ISO on Long Con right now. When Mac died it doubled my resolve, because they interacted in an interesting way.

To be honest I don't know how to approach this whole multiball thing, especially in conjunction with Alison's claim. There are some factors so far in this game that I haven't ever encountered before and I'm a bit stupefied. :/

Let's see if I can scrub some rust off of my ISO skills.

@Long Con
An ISO by Straw J. Henge, PhD DDS MSW

POST-BY-POST COMMENTS: LONG CON & MARMOT
Already detailed by Jay here. Long and short of it: Marmot didn't acknowledge LC much, and when he did it read as forced. LC mentioned Marmot once. Doesn't look good.

On that note, LC said he looked into Marmot's ISO and all he came up with is that SPF is probably not scum. Unless this was a response to something many pages back, this was unprompted. That was all he got from Marmot's ISO? Really? Why?

LONG CON & MACDOUGAL
As detailed in the list above, MacDougal was suspicious of LC, and LC pulled some weird head-game shit on Mac. I'm not a fan of the tone at all. Saying, 'I'm town, and the fact that you can't see that means there's something wrong with you, and you've read me accurately in the past, so what's wrong now,' is so scummy feeling to me.

LONG CON & JAGGEDJIMMYJAY
Nothing really of note. Jay pushed LC on a couple things and LC responded like anyone would. Jay didn't seem satisfied with the answers, but also didn't seem to think them very important.

--

In short, Long Con seems to lack conviction in the way scum tends to: glomming onto others' takes and votes, and using a lot of noncommittal language. And he was almost completely hands-off when it came to Marmot—before and after Marmot's flip.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:14 pmActually I looked at SPF's ISO, not Marmot's.

I misread that post. Alright, new question: Why SPF at that point?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:17 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:15 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:34 pm My new strongest scumread is AL_sama.

Discuss.

I indeed kinda agree.

Strawhenge highlighted this post. I want to highlight it even more. @Long Con why did you word this sentence exactly the way that you did?

It was definitely referencing something. Someone else said "indeed kinda" and it was scrutinized.

Can you wrangle up there where & when from your memory?

I just searched for it. It was from an AL_sama post.

LC, what about how, regardless of its referential nature, you saying 'indeed kinda' meshes with your general tone in this game?

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:22 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:19 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:17 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:15 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:34 pm My new strongest scumread is AL_sama.

Discuss.

I indeed kinda agree.

Strawhenge highlighted this post. I want to highlight it even more. @Long Con why did you word this sentence exactly the way that you did?

It was definitely referencing something. Someone else said "indeed kinda" and it was scrutinized.

Can you wrangle up there where & when from your memory?

I just searched for it. It was from an AL_sama post.

LC, what about how, regardless of its referential nature, you saying 'indeed kinda' meshes with your general tone in this game?

Pleased to meet you, Strawhenge.

"Not a fan of how he again tailgates on someone else."... why "again"? What was the first tailgate?

Second item in my list. I used the term 'parroting' instead of 'tailgating'.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:25 pm So literally just voicing an agreement.

In a vacuum, no, that post doesn't look bad. But in context, and how you've made several more noncommittal posts, it doesn't.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:26 pm "Not a fan of how he sometimes agrees with someone."

That's not what I'm saying, and I get the feeling you know that.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:32 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:30 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:26 pm "Not a fan of how he sometimes agrees with someone."

That's not what I'm saying, and I get the feeling you know that.

You get the wrong feeling, because you have the wrong perspective. You're not me, and that's why you don't understand.

Mac and Jay both pointed out how you can get irritable when accused. I just hope that doesn't mean I'll wind up dead on the morning of D3.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:15 pm Oh this one's for @Strawhenge! I'm about to sirengif.

But anyway, dang that ISO on ted doesn't look good. I look forward to how he responds.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:47 pm

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:40 am I want Sloonei to be scum because I'm town and I want to beat the world champion

Okay, @Oddmerta, I know how tempting it is to try to take down a notoriously talented player; in past games I'd get myself all sorts of riled up at the thought of defeating Jay in a game of wits. But seriously now, do you have any other reason to suspect Sloonei other than the fact that he's Sloonei?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:56 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:53 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:47 pm

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:40 am I want Sloonei to be scum because I'm town and I want to beat the world champion

Okay, @Oddmerta, I know how tempting it is to try to take down a notoriously talented player; in past games I'd get myself all sorts of riled up at the thought of defeating Jay in a game of wits. But seriously now, do you have any other reason to suspect Sloonei other than the fact that he's Sloonei?

How are you feeling about the game now that it's unfolded a bit more and you've been comfortably perched on a townie pedestal?

Echoing what you said here, I'm hopeful about the KC Mafia and nervous about the other team. I'm exactly of two minds when it comes to feeling hopeful or nervous about Alison's trooper claim. Her claim, itself, feels believable—but I'm nervous about how the theoretical anti-town troopers will use their powers, and I'm nervous about trooper claims.

Overall I'm just nervous about multiball because I'm not experienced with it, and I'm a little overwhelmed because my attention span isn't wide enough to read every player with equal depth and detail.

Updated rainbow list:

Top Blokes; Good Eggs:
Strawhenge

Townreads:
Alison
Hally

Town leans:
falcon
Sloonei

Town-lean leans:
Oddmerta (listed here based on currently believing the trooper claims)
KZA (same as above)
SPF
Michelle
fingersplints
BoKnows (notably turned me around from scumreading him in the past day phase)

True neutral:
Dom (someone who has him in your POE, please tell me why; for me there's just nothing to go on other than he really didn't want to catch up on the thread, then bounced)

Scum-lean leans:
Esooa (has been looking a little better, but I admittedly need to take a closer look)
JPIC (same as above)

Scum leans:
nanook (another one I need to look more closely at, but based on others' posts, doesn't look great)

Scumreads:
tedxtr (his posts regarding Marmot, provided by Sloonei, make him look pretty bad)
AL_sama (still not a fan of his D1 behavior)
TSP (same, nor am I fan of his D2 behavior, but I need to ISO him at some point)
Long Con (see: my ISO on him and his reactions to it)

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:11 am

Forgive me if I've missed things that you've already said, but why is falcon so high? Why is esooa so low?

Dom is in the POE because he has not done anything to earn a town read.
[/quote]

Both of those are the aforementioned players I haven't had the bandwidth to give full reads to yet. falcon is so high because of his D0/D1 behavior, and I haven't happened upon anything to sway me. Esooa is higher than earlier in the game on my list, but ditto on needing to do deeper reads.

Morning!

TSP, this whole 'second town core' thing feels needlessly oppositional and unproductive. Maybe it's because I haven't had my tea yet, but I can't even figure out what the hell you're trying to do or why.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:15 am why are people still acting like odd and kza claiming trooper is in any way indicative of them being villagers? i thought we established at SoD that all of the troopers being villagers would be ridiculously unbalanced

My town-lean on both of them is highly conditional on my belief in Alison's claim and neither Odd or KZA have given me any reason to believe their claims are dubious. I'm far from locking them town.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:17 am i don’t understand why tony’s wagon is that much bigger than ted’s. i think ted is a better lunch personally

Apologies if you've gone into it already, but why ted > TSP?

Also, Marmot's still in the poll, I just realized.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:20 am

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:18 am Morning!

TSP, this whole 'second town core' thing feels needlessly oppositional and unproductive. Maybe it's because I haven't had my tea yet, but I can't even figure out what the hell you're trying to do or why.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:15 am why are people still acting like odd and kza claiming trooper is in any way indicative of them being villagers? i thought we established at SoD that all of the troopers being villagers would be ridiculously unbalanced

My town-lean on both of them is highly conditional on my belief in Alison's claim and neither Odd or KZA have given me any reason to believe their claims are dubious. I'm far from locking them town.

but alison is not even claiming she knows the troopers are villagers

I know. Sorry, posting first thing in the morning so I'm probably not being clear. I'm saying they were town-leans regardless of their trooper claims, and therefore I haven't yet seen any reason to suspect their trooper claims.

I'm probably not making sense. Tea time.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:02 am

BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:52 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:40 am

BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:34 am

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:30 am i’m not meaning to be the tony defense squad. we should lunch him too. just trying to play devils advocate a bit

fair enough I'll be happy with a nook, Tony, ted, al Lynch today.

Happy? Why happy?

they in my poe

If you're happy to lynch Poe why don't you vote Nanook with me?

Why nanook over the other two?

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:07 am

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:03 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:02 am

BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:52 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:40 am

BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:34 am

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:30 am i’m not meaning to be the tony defense squad. we should lunch him too. just trying to play devils advocate a bit

fair enough I'll be happy with a nook, Tony, ted, al Lynch today.

Happy? Why happy?

they in my poe

If you're happy to lynch Poe why don't you vote Nanook with me?

Why nanook over the other two?

Why not+

nanook doesn't look good, but ted, TSP, and LC all look worse. If you have a strong reason to get a wagon going on nanook, I'd love to hear it.

@Michelle so you won't post about meta, you'll dodge mech questions, and you won't read long posts.

What will you do to convince us to not vote ted and vote for nanook instead?

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:17 am

BoKnows wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:15 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:13 am I said i will not post about meta

you're not helping by refusing to elaborate on your reads.

I reffuse to elaborate on a read everyone should know about because is meta for a player who just played with us in a very different way the GoC game

He didn't play with me in that game. Help me out.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:19 amWhat? I don't dodge mech questions

What do you call this then?

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:14 am

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:13 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:11 am Hally I will not read that, i have a life

okay. well then it’s hard to care about your defense of ted unless you have mechanical information suggesting he’s a villager

I note this as role fishing and put you in my Poe

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:26 amTed is counter wagon for TSP
Nanok's wagon doesn't grow

This is interesting

You're not doing a very good job convincing us to do otherwise.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:29 am

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:27 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:26 amTed is counter wagon for TSP
Nanok's wagon doesn't grow

This is interesting

You're not doing a very good job convincing us to do otherwise.

I don't even try, to convince you, you have big scum equity fmpov

I'll agree that, 'No guys, just vote for this other person, come on,' is not trying.

I'm not sure what 'scum equity' means, but if you're saying I'm scummy for wanting better reasons to chop someone, then I guess I'm scummy.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:40 am

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:31 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:29 am

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:27 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:26 amTed is counter wagon for TSP
Nanok's wagon doesn't grow

This is interesting

You're not doing a very good job convincing us to do otherwise.

I don't even try, to convince you, you have big scum equity fmpov

I'll agree that, 'No guys, just vote for this other person, come on,' is not trying.

I'm not sure what 'scum equity' means, but if you're saying I'm scummy for wanting better reasons to chop someone, then I guess I'm scummy.

I want a wagon on a player. We are far from Eod.
But
You don't want to go there, at all.
That means you are
1 possible really scum reading Ted
2 mafia with Nanook

My mind goes to the second version

I never said I didn't want to go there. I'm open to going there, but I need a reason to go there over where I'm currently going.

And ftr, yes, I'm scumreading ted.

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:27 pm The convo made me open Straw's Iso and read his first post. He started the game extremely self defensive.
And now I didn't like how he put in discussion the apparently refusal from me to talk mechanical infos.
Also in a thread with so many players no one agreed to pressure Nanook, instead a lot jumped on Ted.
This tells a story for me.

What's the story?

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:39 pm

Strawhenge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:29 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:27 pm The convo made me open Straw's Iso and read his first post. He started the game extremely self defensive.
And now I didn't like how he put in discussion the apparently refusal from me to talk mechanical infos.
Also in a thread with so many players no one agreed to pressure Nanook, instead a lot jumped on Ted.
This tells a story for me.

What's the story?

Once upon a time there was a crime Syndicate and a local gang fighting for supremacy. The villagers of the City tried to make a citizenship test

I will post the sequel, if i am alive the next day

I don't feel like telling us why we should vote for nanook should be this hard. You said you looked at my ISO. If that's true, you'd see nanook is a scum-lean for me. If you give me a compelling reason why nanook is the most pressing chop right now, there's a chance I'll follow you on it.

So what's the story with nanook?