The Syndicate

Hi I am here! Intro post! I know some of you already, but always nice to play in a different context!

I don't think flavor spec is that sketchy given there's a bunch of weird stuff this game... noting that the elements aren't divided evenly between characters is a handy thing to be aware of.

I believe Alison's claim as towny for now, I'm having difficulty picturing a universe where mafia votes are hindered in a way that actually makes sense, since mafia's actions tend to be more deliberate. Like, what's the point of having some kind of weird role that's negative-utility for the mafia side? Seems very strange. So I'm inclined to trust Alison's claim at least for now.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:44 pmI just gave an example of how it could be a mafia-advantaged role. I did not have difficulty picturing it.

Sorry, yeah, I think I misread your original post and thought you were proposing the role as a potential disadvantageous role for mafia. I now see that doesn't make any sense in context, but to be fair, I hadn't had any caffeine yet. :p

At this point I still think Alison's claim is more likely to come from town than scum, tho.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:09 pmI don't think it's like policy chops though, because policy chops are more like: x is making this game harder because blabla so we should chop them (immediate impacts, short/medium term impact), when this is more like assuming things and how they can affect long long term stuff

It's kind of like policy chop in that it's making an ingame action not really based on evidence but just based on ... 'principle,' if that makes sense? Like, policy chop is 'I don't actually think this person is mafia, but we should get rid of them on principle' and this is like 'I don't actually think she's lying, but I'm going to be skeptical on principle'

What's the coffee tell? I feel like there's a story behind that.

p-edit:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:15 pm p much

I don't really get this from your original post either, tbh, it seemed like you were just objecting bc it set a bad precedent rather than anything specific to the situation.

3/33

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:58 pmI think the big difference is that policy chops are meant to have immediate impact while in this case it's to have a looong term including post-game impact which is much more global/something you think with a certain detachment

Being skeptical on principle is exactly what I find scummy, feels fabricated

I kind of agree here tbh and it feels like he's later trying to massage the post into something less overtly principle-y, which seems weird to me.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:07 pmhmn okay. Do you have any other reads at the moment? What do you think of the Starmen crew so far?

Most of the starmens have been really quiet :< U-G and Chardonnay haven't even said anything at all yet!

PSI's convictions on cayvie seemed to fold very quickly under pressure. Or, not even pressure, but just other people having different reads. Feels a little bit like trying not to stand out too much. Maybe a slight scumlean.

Neutron has really only made one substantive post, want to reserve judgment until I see more.

I'm feeling you and cayvie as town mostly for gut reasons right now.

chardonnay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:20 am
cassowary wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:01 pm PSI's convictions on cayvie seemed to fold very quickly under pressure. Or, not even pressure, but just other people having different reads. Feels a little bit like trying not to stand out too much. Maybe a slight scumlean.
Having played with PSInightmare before im surprised that your takeaway is a scum lean. I'm thinking shes town tbh

I mean I said 'maybe slight' scum lean. I do find it interesting that other people jumped on it so quickly, though.

I do think reading too much into psi's tone is ill-advised though. That wasn't my intent with my callout of her. I can confirm as well that she always writes like this. But also, I feel like she was good at using her posting style to her advantage when she was mafia before, so I feel wary of TRing her based on this as you seem to be?

Still, I'm not sure she's my prime suspect atm. Going to go back and read over the thread more carefully.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:22 pm
cassowary wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:32 pm
chardonnay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:20 amHaving played with PSInightmare before im surprised that your takeaway is a scum lean. I'm thinking shes town tbh
I mean I said 'maybe slight' scum lean. I do find it interesting that other people jumped on it so quickly, though.

I do think reading too much into psi's tone is ill-advised though. That wasn't my intent with my callout of her. I can confirm as well that she always writes like this. But also, I feel like she was good at using her posting style to her advantage when she was mafia before, so I feel wary of TRing her based on this as you seem to be?

Still, I'm not sure she's my prime suspect atm. Going to go back and read over the thread more carefully.
Wait, you have meta experience with PSI? Why did you wait to mention this now, and not when you made that post saying you suspected her?

I followed your first post about her, but I don't have meta experience with PSI. The other guy who does have it defended her after I made that case. But now that people are calling the case in question, you decide to remind us that you know her meta and change your read to a more null one?

Uh, sort of? Carotte asked me specifically for reads on the people I already did have meta experience with, but most of them hadn't really made any posts, and I wanted to have something rather than just saying 'they're all null!' This was kinda my strongest feeling at the time based on the, like, 3 posts the people I already knew had made. But to be honest I'm not super attached to this read so... ehh.

The read wasn't based on tone/writing style, bc I do know she always writes like this. I understand people who don't know her reading her tone as suspicious, but my read was based more on the fact that she seemed to not be trying to have her reads stand out. I feel like chardonnay may have confused my post and your post on PSI and thought that I was calling out PSI's tone, which I was not, even if I was pointing at the same post. But at the same time I disagree with chardonnay here that the tone is a meta reason to townread her either, because she's good at maintaining that tone regardless of alignment ime.

[mention]chardonnay[/mention] you didn't really specify why you're feeling psi as town beyond 'she often comes across as appeasing' -- could you go into more detail? For me, meta experience would seem to imply she should be floating somewhere around the middle, I'm not sure where you're getting town from.

---

Re the other stuff going on:

Count me in as not a fan of Jiwon's posting this game either. "inactivity is NAI" doesn't apply when the person is posting but just choosing not to engage.

I don't really see the suspicion of cayvie, or at least I don't see myself voting for Cayvie today when there are better options on the table.

I can also get behind the LC wagon. I don't feel like he's contributed a whole lot of original stuff beyond mechanical speculation and agreeing with other people's reads.

I'll do [VOTE: long con] aubergine for now.

also why does it say aubergine whenever people vote lol

DJ Neutron Star wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:34 pm@cassowary
i'm also unsure why you qualified the Long Con vote as a wagon— nutella was explicit about her vote being a gut vote

meh, I guess I thought more people had voiced explicit suspicion on LC than I'm finding looking back

I stand by the vote though. Not a fan of LC's most recent post here either, even though I do appreciate a good gif.

Ultimate-Gamer wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:58 pm
chardonnay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:48 pm
DJ Neutron Star wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:34 pm @chardonnay
can i confirm why you're voting cassowary? you haven't said much immediately about them outside of 'something' feeling off and currently disagreeing with their PSINE read
forcing a read that they weren't really confidant in, (PSINightmare).
Oh shit I just did that huh

Yeah I didn't want my FIRST iso to be a null read so I kinda put a gun to my head and said "Nooter slightly scummy" even though it's closer to null.

This is a weird reaction to have to a post that wasn't about you, imo

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:16 pm
Im not sure what to make of you lamp shading your own actions so quickly UG haha. You seem pretty ill at ease rn.
This is leaning me towards a Cassowary exe over a Jiwon one. This is the kind of post mafia makes to shade a townie. It's an indirect way of attacking them ("you seem pretty ill at ease") that is difficult to defend yourself against or pick apart (because the snap response is, "hey, that's just how I felt"), but is also couched in a hedgy way ("I'm not sure what to make of you...") that removes accountability for the read if UG flips town.

This is a post that wants us to narrow our eyes at UG, but without making us think "Cassowary wants us to vote UG". That's scummy.

Chardonnay made this post, not me.

I concur with Neutron on the futility of tone-reading PSI. (Pedit: but I disagree w/ him on U-G's posts coming from town)

I don't really know how to respond to the description of my playstyle as "reactive" or "trying to blend in." I mean, yes, I am reacting to stuff in the thread and giving my thoughts on it. And if I'm trying to blend, I'm apparently doing a terrible job at it.

Truth be told, I'm generally pretty bad at d1 stuff -- I usually don't really know what to say early on, I tend to do better with solving-type stuff in the later game. And I'm definitely feeling that hard right now.

I guess here's thoughts:

I feel like chardonnay and carotenoid in particular have been pushing me hard into "consensus scumread" territory based on mostly "I just feel like cassowary's posts have a weird tone"-type stuff, which I don't really know how to defend against, but it feels kind of like something you can say without much to back it up.

I stand by my LC vote at the time, and I still find his... aggressive response to suspicions of him a little strange, but also I don't know him and maybe this is just how he is always? The people who know him don't seem concerned, at least.

U-G continues to seem nervous. That paranoid response to the post that wasn't about him was very strange, and this isn't really the kind of tone I normally see from him. I can definitely see these posts coming from a U-G who's nervous at rolling scum on a new site with a bunch of people he doesn't know.

Regarding Jiwon, it's unfortunate that he hasn't contributed literally anything, but in my recent experience that doesn't really mean anything as regards alignment. (It's just Cave of the Past all over again...) So I'm wary of casting a vote based purely on shitpostiness because I've led that charge in the past and been horribly wrong.

I am going to sleep but will be back tomorrow morning before EOD. I'm going to move my vote onto U-G so I'm at least putting it to slightly more productive use??

[VOTE: Ultimate-Gamer] aubergine

DJ Neutron Star wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:05 am it reads like cassowary just sort of choosing someone who was being voted and naming some generic scumtell that could apply to them at the time

Excuse double post here, I'm on my phone so quoting is annoying, but this is not why I voted LC. Perhaps I should have made my case using more quotes of LC at the time, but his ISO at the time was like mostly mechanical speculation (elements and hypothetical vote-restricted mafia role) and a couple off topic posts, then he sort of vaguely agreed with the psi case, then suddenly jumped back in with a vote on Cayvie. It kind of read to me as all over the place, like he wasn't really paying attention to the thread very much.

He's had more to say now though, but that was my reasoning at the time. Just want to clear that up.

chardonnay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:40 am But im also most confidant that cassowary is flipping mafia, and I don't really want to neglect that wagon.

Why though? Why this unearned confidence? Just because I found psi suspicious at the beginning and vague stuff about tone? How did I go from "scum I guess lol" to "confidently mafia"?? Where is this coming from?

I'm not a huge fan of the Jiwon wagon either, but I'll vote jiwon over... myself, at least in the interest of eliminating someone who isn't really contributing anything.

[VOTE: jiwon] aubergine

DJ Neutron Star wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:33 pm could you elaborate on what it is you continue to not like about Long Con beyond just affirming you don't like him/think he's strange?

Honestly I don't really have vote-worthy levels of feelings about LC anymore, but I'm still wary of his confrontational tone in general because I feel like it could work to his advantage as scum if people are intimidated/afraid to challenge him.

Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:41 pm
cassowary wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:03 amI stand by my LC vote at the time, and I still find his... aggressive response to suspicions of him a little strange, but also I don't know him and maybe this is just how he is always? The people who know him don't seem concerned, at least.
underlined reads like a wolf unhappy that they can't just get away with an easy policy-esque vote

Really? I think I've explained why I voted for LC pretty thoroughly. How does this come across as policy-esque to you?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:13 pm

How about we hit an actual scum in Cass/Cayvie then yeet the teammate on Jiwon's wagon.

What makes you so confident about this?

---

To be real here, this is going to sound kind of silly, but I think part of the reason people who played with me before are reading me badly on tone is because we just (like, last week) finished a game that lasted like 3 months, where it was only my second time playing mafia, and I survived almost to the end of the game, so I think I had to adjust the way I usually reason about the game to make that work. I think I'm still having a bit of trouble getting back into the town mindset, like, I have to actually put effort into thinking about the game state and not throw shade at random people just to try to get them killed?? Lame!!

I hope that makes sense. Like, I've still got to change gears in my brain a little bit, so I might be coming across different than usual. But maybe for example I should cut chardonnay etc some slack on reading me as vaguely suspicious. Sorry guys.

Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:22 pm
cassowary wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:19 pm
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:41 pm
cassowary wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:03 amI stand by my LC vote at the time, and I still find his... aggressive response to suspicions of him a little strange, but also I don't know him and maybe this is just how he is always? The people who know him don't seem concerned, at least.
underlined reads like a wolf unhappy that they can't just get away with an easy policy-esque vote
Really? I think I've explained why I voted for LC pretty thoroughly. How does this come across as policy-esque to you?
Maybe policy isn't the right word but it felt like you were talking less about why LC is a wolf and more about why LC is weird and suspicious — like you said you say you're standing by your read and then you immediately start undermining your own arguments and saying oh everything I was wolfreading was just personality stuff. Your argument also doesn't really mesh with the reason you gave for your vote? Like you justified it based off of agreeing to much and mechanics talk and generally being too passive it seems like you're arguing the opposite right now. There's a weird mindset thing, shouldn't people saying lc tends to be an agressive player make you more suspicious of a slow start, not less?

cass's original vote for reference:
Spoiler: show

cassowary wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:59 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:22 pm
cassowary wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:32 pm
chardonnay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:20 amHaving played with PSInightmare before im surprised that your takeaway is a scum lean. I'm thinking shes town tbh
I mean I said 'maybe slight' scum lean. I do find it interesting that other people jumped on it so quickly, though.

I do think reading too much into psi's tone is ill-advised though. That wasn't my intent with my callout of her. I can confirm as well that she always writes like this. But also, I feel like she was good at using her posting style to her advantage when she was mafia before, so I feel wary of TRing her based on this as you seem to be?

Still, I'm not sure she's my prime suspect atm. Going to go back and read over the thread more carefully.
Wait, you have meta experience with PSI? Why did you wait to mention this now, and not when you made that post saying you suspected her?

I followed your first post about her, but I don't have meta experience with PSI. The other guy who does have it defended her after I made that case. But now that people are calling the case in question, you decide to remind us that you know her meta and change your read to a more null one?

Uh, sort of? Carotte asked me specifically for reads on the people I already did have meta experience with, but most of them hadn't really made any posts, and I wanted to have something rather than just saying 'they're all null!' This was kinda my strongest feeling at the time based on the, like, 3 posts the people I already knew had made. But to be honest I'm not super attached to this read so... ehh.

The read wasn't based on tone/writing style, bc I do know she always writes like this. I understand people who don't know her reading her tone as suspicious, but my read was based more on the fact that she seemed to not be trying to have her reads stand out. I feel like chardonnay may have confused my post and your post on PSI and thought that I was calling out PSI's tone, which I was not, even if I was pointing at the same post. But at the same time I disagree with chardonnay here that the tone is a meta reason to townread her either, because she's good at maintaining that tone regardless of alignment ime.

@chardonnay you didn't really specify why you're feeling psi as town beyond 'she often comes across as appeasing' -- could you go into more detail? For me, meta experience would seem to imply she should be floating somewhere around the middle, I'm not sure where you're getting town from.

---

Re the other stuff going on:

Count me in as not a fan of Jiwon's posting this game either. "inactivity is NAI" doesn't apply when the person is posting but just choosing not to engage.

I don't really see the suspicion of cayvie, or at least I don't see myself voting for Cayvie today when there are better options on the table.

I can also get behind the LC wagon. I don't feel like he's contributed a whole lot of original stuff beyond mechanical speculation and agreeing with other people's reads.

I'll do [VOTE: long con] aubergine for now.

also why does it say aubergine whenever people vote lol

this was like a billion years ago lol but I want to respond to it.

I don't think I'm undermining my own arguments here. It's sort of, tone vs content? Like, I wouldn't say my initial vote was based on him seeming "passive" -- even as he wasn't really engaging with a lot of what was going on, his tone was still very blunt, and his actual writing doesn't come across as passive at all. That combination of tone and content seems dangerous to me because posting with an aggressive tone can make people not want to call you out even if you haven't had a lot to say at all. That's a very advantageous position for a mafia to be in. People saying LC always tends to be aggressive makes me less confident that he's specifically cultivating this to give him an advantage as mafia, at least, but I still want to keep an eye on him over content level.

Compare, say, PSINE, who does always tend to post in a very "hedge-y" way, which might come across as kind of passive, but she's obviously paying attention to what's going on in the game and forming opinions on it. (also she always writes like that so the tone is pretty nai)

I'll do some catching up on the rest of the thread now.

Aw man, not the doc. :'(

For posterity, here's the reads post I was working on before the thread got locked:

(I know there's a lot in here that's based on people's opinions of me, but like... everyone's talking about me, so)

Nutella -- unless nutella's playing some kind of long game and trying hard to pocket me instead of just going for the easy misyeet for some reason, I think nutella's soul townread on me looks very good.
DDL -- I like DDL's, style, I guess? He's putting pressure on people and seems to be thinking through what's happening in the game. Also I think I just agree with a lot of his reads? And his sudden push near eod away from me onto Neutron looks v good fmpov
PSI -- I'm mostly putting PSI high bc I like her energy and I agree with a lot of her reads
Cayvie -- similar to DDL, I just like her posts, and her reasoning feels legit
Alison -- still trust her on the NU claim
DrWilgy -- hasn't had a lot to say, honestly, and I'm not a huge fan of this type of gamestate-speculation(?) reasoning as someone's main contribution
Fatmo/Dov -- keeping these two somewhere around the middle bc I don't really remember much of what they've done tbh
U-G -- as U-G has posted more he's kinda floated back up in my reads, my initial SR was mostly tone-based anyway so ehh reconsidering
Neutron -- I feel like Neutron has come across this way before when he's playing as town, like, we flipped neutron d1 for very similar reasons in this deeply stupid mafiascum game. I'm kinda sus on Neutron but not my biggest suspicion right now, kind of a meta read.
Jack -- looking through jack's ISO he has actually posted a fair amount but has said very little. Not a huge fan of "someone sell me on a wagon" -- looks like he's looking for an excuse to jump on someone
Carotenoid -- maybe this is just because she keeps pushing me

. But I just don't really feel like I trust her at this point in time. She kind of voted me w/ little explanation and then all her reads list afterwards had on me was like the psi thing and 'reshuffling ideas' (??) and i'm the top suspicion for like half the roster? hmm
Chardonnay -- I feel like chardonnay and carotenoid have been kinda playing the same game here tbh. I mean this is basically the same vague stuff carotte was throwing at me. and i don't know what to do with this. also, if you think I'm scum why are you worried about carot setting up a mutually exclusive relationship between me and you. . . hmm
LC -- he still kinda seems like he's not super engaged. and what was up w/ that vote eod1. bad look [p-edit @ alison: yeah, openwolfing, that's the thing he's doing. the gif is a tell, a tell i say
Jovian -- don't really like the way they've been kind of hard tunnelling me and extrapolating a lot of extra stuff from there. like, what's your plan if I flip town, buddy?

Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:02 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:33 pm
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:30 pm That kill clears me, I'd always bring over the thunderdome an extra day there.
X to doubt.

There’s massive wifom there.
Nah like I would /never/ make that kill, cuz I have first-hand experience in pretty much that exact situation.

...

Like in this situation, I'd just kill cayvie and watch her shout from dvc as I pull off the exact same trick all over again. Guaranteed Town/Wolf wagons are an absolute godsend in this scenario because it lets you know exactly what's gonna happen the next day. As a wolf team, this is the time when your advantage of tmi is strongest. You basically get a stranglehold on the game, you know exactly what you need to do to maximize cred, and as the wolf taking the fall you just catch onto any townies starting to be wrong and just make sure that they are punished hard for not having tmi and that the next days well be suffering and solveless as town starts killing itself.
[VOTE: cass] aubergine

By definition this is still wifom though! You could also do the opposite thing and then try to use this exact logic to clear yourself. Why should I believe you would never make this kill, when you immediately jump on it to try to clear yourself after this kill gets made??

On the other hand, would a wolf immediately jump out and go 'oh see I'm cleared!'? Seems a bit on the nose. And so on around in circles. WIFOM.

[VOTE: Marcher Jovian] aubergine

Perhaps a miswording, didn't mean to imply that post was your only contribution or whatever

But it kind of seems like you've posted reads but not really justified them beyond like speculation about general factors? like this is the other post where you discussed reads on people but you're kind of just agreeing with carot and listing suspicions without much reasoning there imo

and the other post i linked which is ">=1 of these 4 is a wolf based on gamestate" which... ok sure but that's true 80% of the time of four random people (assuming 2:1 town:mafia ratio)

Idk, I'm willing to chalk it up to difference in play style but I'm curious if you have opinions about the actual events that have gone down, beyond 'one of the wagons was probably mafia'?

I actually noticed that as well cayvie. I'm wondering if I'm interpreting that correctly. I messaged nanook about it to ask for clarification just a bit ago but no response yet.

But like... what if the poisoner and the doc who heals poison were on the same team...

Also maybe this means we shouldn't trust alison so much just on the basis of 'role seems unlikely to be assigned to mafia' lol

I... don't? I was talking more from the perspective of designing the setup, but yeah, it is possible we're living in that universe.

Update: nanook replied to me and apparently it's correct that the doctor (eg) could have been mafia had the rolls worked out differently.

So this changes how we should think about roleclaims for sure I think. Roles and flavor might match up (given Katara's powers in the show this seems likely) but that won't tell us anything about alignment.

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:56 pm Worth noting that Gladiator works on both factions (in fact, on Starmen we had a mafia-aligned Gladiator who claimed to be town) so even if Marcher proves their ability it doesn't clear them. Ergo, I will still be voting for them even if they use their ability.

And PSI is correct here, but this logic actually applies to all roles.

wait, "neutron is scum -> MJ is scum" implies "MJ is town -> neutron is town," because you're ruling out the world where Neutron is scum but MJ is town. it's the contrapositive

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:47 pm Ah, I see the issue. I am falsely representing a non-absolute inference as an absolute one. That is, suppose we flip Neutron scum. Then we have to assume that MJ is scum who is defending him. The possibility of MJ being town who was thunderdomed by nutella and defending a wolf is just too low for us to do anything but execute her. But this is technically a supposition or judgement of probabilities, and not a strict logical inference, which I wrongly phrased it as.

So it's better to say that I don't think that Neutron is scum logically implies MJ is scum. Rather, I think that the revelation of Neutron being scum would make MJ the correct execute in almost all worlds. But, the same doesn't apply the other way around, because if we know that MJ is town, we are more obliged to seriously consider the coincidence where MJ really was just a townie who had some extreme bad luck in terms of reads and pushes. And the reason we have to consider that coincidence more in scenario 2 than in scenario 1, is because in scenario 2 we already know that MJ is a townie!

Ok, yeah, I think given the information asymmetry between scum and town this reasoning does check out.

chardonnay wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:41 amI did notice you ignored the question below, so thanks for that.

Sorry chardonnay -- question was "what are your thoughts on eod1" and I thought my reads list kinda answered this but my thoughts on eod1 are basically:

- I like DDL a lot for pushing away from me onto Neutron. I think scum DDL would just let the misyeet go through on me.
- Tbh not sure how I feel about Neutron. Not as suspicious of Neutron as others seem to be, kind of meta read that I've had similar feelings about him d1 before and worry about acting on them too soon.
- Not totally sure what to make of this dov thing either. I'm not sure I buy the coaching argument since he seems like he legit wasn't sure what's going on (and ToS/other short mafia games have very different norms around discussion iirc so the silent vote doesn't seem too weird in that light I don't think?)
- I'm kind of giving the side-eye to Jack's no-vote and LC's vanity-vote, not super scummy on their own but kinda weird.
- Really don't like Jovian coming in with the push on me like they did.

Well dang. RIP all the airbenders I guess.

I... think I'm still gonna vote Jovian tomorrow but I want to look through stuff with new knowledge before I commit hard to anything

reading back, yeah, chardonnay comes out of this looking very good. I really can't see this interaction as SvS at all.

Same tbh. I don't think a townie's first thought on seeing a kill in general is usually "oh good this clears me personally"

did jet just... die?

Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:00 pm I see the wolves have gone with the "crush souls" theory of kills

elaborate?

personally i'm kinda surprised, i thought they'd go for psi as 'hardest player to misyeet'

dov wrote: ↑Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:48 pm What's the difference between hammerable and not hammerable, sorry I haven't been on, I wasn't on my PC for the weekend til now essentially

Not-hammerable is when you want to unvote -- you just want to take your vote off. The poll doesn't let you select no option, so that's the option you pick if you want to not have a vote after you already voted.

Hammerable is voting to end the day with a no-kill. If that's the leading vote at eod (I think), no one will be killed that day.

dov wrote: ↑Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:03 pm Also, if you guys truly think I'm scum, please just vote for me already. I didn't have a good start in the game because I wasn't sure what was happening but if you want to get rid of some suspicion, may as well vote me off because I'm sure as time goes on, you will only think I'm scum. I don't think there's any other way I can persuade otherwise, do what you must do.

I mean, you could read up on the thread and give your thoughts on the people you think are acting suspicious... and maybe even cast a vote yourself? :O

---

Me, I'm still not really seeing any compelling non-wifomy evidence not to vote Jovian. So I'm gonna vote for Jovian. That stuff they said on why nutella's death clears them is too weird to ignore. And they kinda ghosted a bunch of D2 when it looked like they were going to die that day, which is exactly the kind of behavior I'd expect from cornered mafia.

[VOTE: Marcher Jovian] aubergine

Well, we've got a little over 2 hours left.

I'm already voting Jovian and don't really intend on moving. I'm ~ok with Dov yeet too but I think there's a stronger case against Jovian.

psi, who would you vote for out of { dov, marcher } ?

My PoE I think is {Wilgy, Dov, Carotte, LC}. But I'm not really sure about the fourth person, there. Cayvie you give Fatmo a (medium, medium) associative -- is that just because Fatmo didn't interact with UG or MJ, or is there something else you're looking at to base that on?

i would assume so? and fwiw all the air people are dead at this point

i'll give more comprehensive opinions when i'm not swamped at work but I trust PSI's bolding as a crumb so I'll trust LC and Wilgy

(I also think LC and Wilgy seem like likely investigation candidates, and PSI just blatantly TRing Wilgy with no explanation when a bunch of other people were putting him in their PoE mafia club definitely gives credibility to the idea that Wilgy was green-checked)

I could be wrong but I'm really not feeling dov as scum

I mean, what is there on dov even? The silent vote? If he comes from a context of playing faster mafia games where voting is handled more casually then I think it's not too suspicious.

Idk it just feels like dov is being set up as a really easy misflip where mafia can go 'oh, well, he was actually suspicious though! we all make mistakes!'

It's possible dov really is scum but I'd really much rather flip someone else today.

cayvie wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:58 pm
cassowary wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:26 pm I could be wrong but I'm really not feeling dov as scum

I mean, what is there on dov even? The silent vote? If he comes from a context of playing faster mafia games where voting is handled more casually then I think it's not too suspicious.

Idk it just feels like dov is being set up as a really easy misflip where mafia can go 'oh, well, he was actually suspicious though! we all make mistakes!'

It's possible dov really is scum but I'd really much rather flip someone else today.
what's changed for you since this post?

cassowary wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:42 pm My PoE I think is {Wilgy, Dov, Carotte, LC}. But I'm not really sure about the fourth person, there. Cayvie you give Fatmo a (medium, medium) associative -- is that just because Fatmo didn't interact with UG or MJ, or is there something else you're looking at to base that on?

(a) Wilgy and LC are green-checked and (b) I'm more open to the idea of you and DDL as scum

I haven't really been that suspicious of Dov ever though. I haven't voted him at all iirc and I mentioned these thoughts on him a while ago and nothing's really changed there. He was mostly there before because I haven't had much of a read on him all game and I trusted other people more.

But as is I really don't see myself voting outside {Carotte, Cayvie, DDL, Fatmo} today.

Chard/Carotte, if you guys are proposing Cayvie/DDL as the last two scum, what's up w/ this tea thing do you think? :/

pedit: if you're worried i might be scum you could make an actual case against me instead of shading me on activity level

I'm Yue, water, role PM says I have no abilities which is obviously silly because I should be able to turn into the moon

Starting to feel like DDL might be the better vote over cayvie? I feel like DDLxCarotte might be possible in addition to DDLxCayvie, so DDL is the better vote

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine

pedit: Wow i thought i was going to be cool and original with my vote

chardonnay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:23 pm You'll always be cool and original in my heart Cassowary :P

If we cant get DDL by EoD would you support Cayvie?

Um, I'm not sure? My heart is telling me don't vote cayvie and i'll admit that's a terrible reason, but I am not feeling it rn, that's actually kind of why I voted DDL instead :/

but also ties are broken by mafia so I'd really rather this doesn't end up as 3-3-2

fatmo don't forget you have to vote in the poll as well

chardonnay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:24 pmCassowary isnt mod cleared as town, but they hit a town tell I've discovered of theirs and im super confidant they are town. Not outting this info b/c its a pretty easy thing for Cass to fake if they were aware of it.

!! :O what could it be

chardonnay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:13 am @cassowary were you able to reread the game?

If not then just tell me your current thoughts

I really think Carotte's interactions w/ confirmed maf look not great tbh. Like what Carotte says about U-G in these few posts strikes me as very possible w/w. And Carotte voted MJ d2, but didn't have much to say on it tbh, looks kinda like bussing for town cred when it was obvious Jovian was going down (i mean Jovian already had 3 votes at this point and already had attracted substantial suspicion).

Looking back I can see cayvie's posts coming from maf as well (though i'm feeling stronger about Carot atm) and I feel bad for weirding myself away from voting cayvie yesterday. But I'm not sure I really have anything concrete on Cayvie other than PoE? But if it's PoE it could be Fatmo or Dov as well... hm. I'm a little confused atm :/

[VOTE: carotenoid] aubergine

chard: last day you said you were thinking it was either DDLxCayvie or CarottexDov:

chardonnay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:17 am Its shaping up to look like the team is ethier DDL, and Cayvie. Or, Carotte, and DoV.

CarotxDov is a bit left field, but more possible then other DoV teams. Only weird thing is DoV openly saying that he was sheeping Carotte N1. Almost seems like too uncomfortable a thing for mafia to confess doing to another mafia. Espeasly when DoV was already p nervous about how he was perceived.

(unless I'm misreading what you meant here I guess)

so now that we know DDL is town, if you're still wanting to go with Cayvie, who are you proposing as Cayvie's partner?

Not really trying to defend Cayvie here, I just want to feel better about it if we're choosing to vote her over Carotte or Dov today and I want someone to sell me on the case more

dov wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:51 amim not good at reads since this is my first game and in addition i will feel like a shitty person if i accuse the wrong person and get them chopped

dov for real me and chardonnay just convinced town to kill the wrong person yesterday, it happens sometimes and being wrong is just part of the game, but i really would love to know any thoughts you have right now, we're kind of coming down to the wire

dov wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:51 ami want to believe at least one of the maf is cass since she wasn't cleared as town if im reading that correctly, but too many people are playing the same sort of game where it could be anyone essentially this late in the game.

not trying to omgus here, but I don't really like how dov singles me out as unconfirmed town while ignoring cayvie and carotte. Hmm maybe I shouldn't be giving dov so much benefit of the doubt. :[

no, give your thoughts! if chardonnay really is mafia it would be really good to figure that out so we don't lose the game...

lol i just realized more than half the remaining people have names that start with C

fwiw, dov, the reason I personally trust chardonnay, at least, is that his interactions with U-G (a confirmed mafia) don't read at all like two mafia interacting to me. like, check out this interaction:

Ultimate-Gamer wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:21 pm
chardonnay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:07 pm
Ultimate-Gamer wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:58 pm
chardonnay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:48 pm
DJ Neutron Star wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:34 pm @chardonnay
can i confirm why you're voting cassowary? you haven't said much immediately about them outside of 'something' feeling off and currently disagreeing with their PSINE read
forcing a read that they weren't really confidant in, (PSINightmare).
Oh shit I just did that huh

Yeah I didn't want my FIRST iso to be a null read so I kinda put a gun to my head and said "Nooter slightly scummy" even though it's closer to null.
I mean... there's nothing inhertly wrong with forcing a read for the sake of content generation. Its more when its done for the sake of not standing out.

Im not sure what to make of you lamp shading your own actions so quickly UG haha. You seem pretty ill at ease rn.
Oh yeah I'm absolutely ill at ease. This is a new game on an unfamiliar site, with new people I've never played. I am anxious as FUCK rn even outside of game stuff.

So I'm kinda, just talking. I'm just gonna kinda say whatever comes to me and then judge people based on how they react to that.

That's worked for me before so even if I can't fall back on familiar metas, there's always That.

And sorry if people were trying to address me before this, I'm still at work, I'll try to find time later.

we know u-g is mafia; do you think a mafia chardonnay makes sense in this interaction?

Gonna try and sell myself on the cayvie case too I guess

Looking at cayvie/UG interactions...

I believe the only time cayvie mentioned UG pre-flip was in this ordering:

Spoiler: show

I can see a mafia member putting one of their partners in the 'would vote but not that happy about it' category for sure.

It is a little weird though because the other scum we know in this list is KS (who was replaced by Jovian). If it's cayvie/dov and cayvie's only partner who's around is UG, does cayvie put UG under "would vote"? I don't know actually -- maybe, if she knew KS was getting replaced soon.

If it's cayvie/carotte (possible but maybe unlikely? Will look into the possibility of this team later I guess) then scum!cayvie puts one of her partners as top townread? Idk about this either tbh but I can see this working if it was Cayvie/Carotte/UG/KS and the goal was to get Cayvie and/or Carotte deep.

I guess cayvie not having anything to say on UG before UG flipped mafia is kind of sketch though. Afterwards she did all those analyses of interactions with UG (though leaving herself out of course)

Ultimate-Gamer wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:23 pm PSINE calling Cayvie out feels.... Odd? Like, not scummy odd but more like "I'm out of my element and kinda making things up as I go and things are escalating because of it"??? It's hard to explain.

I'm pretty sure this was the PSI post in question:

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:15 pm
cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:58 pm
PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:46 pm All righty, I'm back again. Man I wish I had more time to interact with the thread over a long period of time rather than just popping in with a few posts and leaving again...I should have more time on the weekend, which isn't super helpful for Day 1 but maybe I can be more helpful on Day 2.

Think I'll put together a reads list (enclosed below). I haven't reread the thread yet because I don't have time, so sorry if I remember things wrong.

Spoiler: show
Alison--Like I said, I believe her claim. It makes sense to me and I'm not personally seeing it coming from scum. I won't put her locktown though because apparently it isn't out of her wolfrange, but she's definitely strong town.

Carotenoid--As I said before, her tone is still odd to me and my gut is telling me not to trust her. She agrees that her tone is "noticeably different", but she doesn't really explain on that at all? It's a bit confusing. She has mindmelded with me a little bit though, so I wouldn't write it off as her being town, but it could also be a pocketing attempt? If that's the case it does match up with her current townread of me. I'm putting her at a mild scumlean.

Cassowary--Others have brought this up, and I hadn't before, but I agree that something feels off about them. They've just had an odd tone that I'm not vibing with. They could use an ISO which I don't really have time for atm, but I know there's something off there. Mild scumlean as well.

Cayvie--Ugh I can't read her anymore. My initial scumlean was for a reason that has obviously been a mistake, but she's not super townie to me either. I've seen posts that could go either way for her. I'd like to have a stronger lean, but right now she'll be an uncomfortable null.

Chardonnay--I'm actually feeling pretty good about him right now. I've mindmelded with him on more than a few things so far, and I agree with almost all of his takes. I do know that I agreed with a lot of his takes in the last game I played with him (I was civ and he was wolf) so I wouldn't put it past him, but I'm feeling pretty good about him so far. Moderate townlean.

DJ Neutron Star--I'm having a hard time reading her. My gut knee-jerk read would be mafia, but whenever I think that my brain immediately goes "wait no probably town" so I can't decide yet. Super super light scumlean.

Dov--He's had a single post the whole game, just to say "good luck". Normally I would see this as scummy, but I've seen it from town too many times to really pin it down. Would like more content. Null.

DDL--Gut read comes up town, but I'm unfamiliar with him so he could totally be scum. I so need to do an ISO on him, but until that happens it'll be a mild townlean.

DrWilgy--I really don't know. I can't pin anything down yet. They're a perfectly solid null at the moment. I'll need more content to decide.

Fatmo--One post I think? Similar to Dov, they just sort of dropped in with a "sup" and disappeared. Again, I would normally see this as scummy if not for the townies who also do this. Null.

JackofHearts2005--I'm sure they're perfectly capable of their current play as scum, but my gut says town. I haven't seen enough to quantify a legitimate read, so I'll leave it as a mild townlean.

JiwonMeganPark--I'm honestly not seeing too much scummy about them? They kinda just read like a jokey player. I don't mind the wagon, but I'm not sure it's the absolute best option right now.

KitsuShel--No posts.

Long Con--I've got a gut scumread here but no real reason to justify it. He could really go either way. Mild scumlean.

Nutella--She reads town to me, but I get the feeling she's a good enough player to pull this off as mafia. I haven't really had any mindmelds with her yet either, so I'll have to put her as null.

Ultimate-Gamer--Null.
Sorry the readlist is full of "well I feel this but it could be this" and my gutreads, but as I haven't had time to ISO anyone and there isn't anything standing out to me yet, this is the best I can muster. I'm all right joining most of the wagons (as in, none of them are "wait no that person has got to be town" for me) but I don't want to place down a vote until I've had the chance to do at least a bit more work.
i really like this post fwiw
Why? What about it do you like? It's just a readlist full of gutreads. Want to get specific for me and tell me what specifically you like about it? (For the record, the answer may help me read you.)

U-G casting kinda weird shade at psi for calling out cayvie? "You don't feel scummy but this is weird". PSI's post doesn't really read weird to me, it's asking for an elaboration on a vague post in response to something she said. I can see U-G seeing this slightly suspicious post made at his partner, maybe reading it as more serious than it was, and getting a little defensive on her behalf as scum?

Ultimate-Gamer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:50 amOkay let’s move onto Cayvie
Starts of explaining the divisions in the elements and characters… Kinda gets into it with Alison about power roles… Gets really heated with Alison… I don’t Know Cayvie very well but from a scum perspective, what would be gained by this? Like, I’d like to imagine that if Cayvie was startin to but heads with Alison, what would they gain by keeping it up and standing their ground on this? They could have easily said “oh shoot you’re right” and blended RIGHT back in. This doesn’t feel like someone with something to hide ya know?

Yeah the more I read the more I’m seeing a townie actively trying to solve the game to the best of their ability and not concerning themselves with trying to be not noticed. I’m feeling a better town read I think.

It's a bit weird that U-G defends cayvie here on stuff that happened really early on but doesn't really go further than that? like this post was on page 7 and he's discussing stuff from like page 2 to move towards a townread, when there was more stuff to discuss for sure. Hmm

Ultimate-Gamer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:57 amCayvie: ISO'd. Also town. Unlike Alison, I CAN see a universe where Cayvie is scum, but her actions make MORE sense as town. She's active, she's solving the game, she's putting herself out there in a way that would be counterintuitive as scum. Pretty good town lean.

This like "well i think town read but hmm maybe could be mafia oh gee but probably not" strikes me as possible w/w stuff

Hmm ok starting to think maybe I should just vote cayvie get gravy lol

cayvie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:31 pm fatmo is still alive.
fatmo has claimed fire nation tracker

to me this either says:
fatmo is mafia
there's a water tribe person in the mafia team who can't get tracked by fatmo

So, you think there's mafia in { me, chardonnay, fatmo }?

Isn't it possible mafia just killed off one of the green-checked people because they didn't want to narrow the pool of unconfirmed town?

----

Going back over some early cayvie/carotte stuff rn

I said it was weird U-G gave thoughts on cayvie that were based on really old stuff and I do think it's interesting that U-G's logic there mirrors this Carot post from p1:

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:18 pmI think cayvie is townie because in a t!Alison world a wolf would probs be more likely to believe the claim immediately rather than try to undermine it. (her reply to your post was like 2 minutes after) Her motivation seems to be heavily experience/~emotions based in a way that's more "townie being careful" than "scum trying to discredit".

Carotte actually pretty heavily defends Cayvie against a lot of the people looking to vote her d1:

Spoiler: show

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:17 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:11 pm
Spoiler: show
I don’t see any tmi about Allison’s alignment in DDL’s post. His reasoning for townreading her is basically identical to mine with a hedge. If I see tmi it’s here.

cayvie wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:01 pm oh that makes a lot of sense, thank you for clarifying. i was kinda ??? at your original post.

i think that DDL's post is talking about Alison's post as dangerous in a meta-sense, that this is a dangerous precedent to set for future games but not necessarily this one? so not necessarily bad for town in this game, but bad for town *in general*. kind of reminds me of policy chops in a way.

i do see what you mean about how it potentially TMIs Alison as town.
Where Cayvie sees a tmi that doesn’t exist as indicating that DDL is a wolf.

Contrast with this post.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:09 pm Yeah nutella, like he's trying to show he's hesitating but he actually knows she's town.

Cayvie yeah in long-term I meant throughout-games/meta-sense. Like, he can extrapolate to long term because he already knows how it's unfolding in this game? I don't think it's like policy chops though, because policy chops are more like: x is making this game harder because blabla so we should chop them (immediate impacts, short/medium term impact), when this is more like assuming things and how they can affect long long term stuff

tl;dr is just UH OH NOT GOOD
Which reads practically like drooling. Could be a wolf looking for a misyeet. Could be a townie thinking they see a chance to nab a wolf.

Carot is not scum with DDL.

All this makes this post

cayvie wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:24 pm i think DDL and carotte are town rn!
all the more “interesting.”

I kinda wanna flip DDL even though logically the move is to flip Cayvie. Both can consider themselves on notice.

Spoiler: show
Btw, I think I’m gonna try to be a “team player” this game and see how that works out. I’m not bothering with Carot cause Alison trusts them.

Lol what does my post drooling mean??
I don't really see it thought because I do see how DDL's post is TMI in the way it's worded I do agree that the transition to townreading both of us is a bit ??? but I think w!cayvie would have been more mindful about that.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:14 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:55 am[VOTE: Cayvie] aubergine

Secondaries could go to Cass, Alison

Tertiary PSI or DJ.

Discuss.

3
I'm not really seeing what you see about cayvie tbh, I disagree with her about your post feeling forced but it wasn't a "useless" comment. Is there something else that makes you wanna vote cayvie? What did you think of her during her initial interactions with Alison?

Why Alison is secondary?

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:38 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:55 pm I'm leaning toward cayvie as the chop right now. I don't like how her change of opinion on DDL went, and her ISO largely reads to me like pocketing attempts of DDL and Alison. [VOTE: cayvie] aubergine
I'm a *little bit* bothered that this is thinking in term of finding a chop rather than finding wolves.

I have wrongly scumread Long Con before so I'm trying to be careful and give it more time though. I liked nutella's vote on him.

Carot responding to ~all the people saying they want to vote cayvie with objections seems a little sketch to me if cayvie is maf

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:38 am [VOTE: Jiwon] aubergine

Hmn I realized that I might not be able to be around for EoD :/
Anyway. I think my preferred flip is Jiwon. Would be okay with cassowary, DDL or DJ too. Don't want to flip cayvie or UG.

This is a gutsy move if the team was carotte/cayvie/ug/jovian tbh

Idk, other people let me know your thoughts on a Carotte/Cayvie mafia pairing

dov/fatmo are PoE too, though

cassowary wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:43 pm
cayvie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:31 pm fatmo is still alive.
fatmo has claimed fire nation tracker

to me this either says:
fatmo is mafia
there's a water tribe person in the mafia team who can't get tracked by fatmo
So, you think there's mafia in { me, chardonnay, fatmo }?

Isn't it possible mafia just killed off one of the green-checked people because they didn't want to narrow the pool of unconfirmed town?

To clarify here, had mafia killed off Fatmo, they'd essentially narrow the mafia pool down to you, Carot, and dov, where 2/3 of those were mafia. Bad odds. Fatmo isn't remotely cleared by this of course, but I don't think killing LC means as much as you're making it out to mean.

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