The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:45 pm To be fair, nutella can't win with the meta reads. Some people expect her to be assertive and some people expect her to waffle.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:44 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:26 pm @Epignosis does what happened in the lynch post align with what you expected to happen?

Yes.

I didn't have a lynch switch. I had a lynch stop. I used it when votes started coming in on me, because I wasn't sure if I'd have access to the thread down the stretch.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:09 pm

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:04 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:02 pm

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:01 pm We should try to recruit one of the enemy roles.

wait what? what do you mean by "enemy roles"? also I don't know offhand what all the rules about Rico's Army are but wouldn't it be bad for scum to be on it if it's beneficial? am I thinking about this wrong

Look at the ones on the bottom of the poll. It's the two who were revealed to be from Badguyia, but we can vote to recruit them. I don't have any real reason to suggest this, just out of curiosity.

is it confirmed that they actually are from badguyia or are they just listed as being in the army?

I'm not sure we've actually discussed this.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:37 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:35 pmOhmygod this actually *is* Mountains mafia.

?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:43 pm someone mentioned mountain mafia earlier too, was that epignosis

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:16 am Outside of lynching mafia, that was the best possible Day 1 outcome one could hope for.

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:02 pm Kenway is so town.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:47 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.

I don't understand what other thing(s) you thought he could have done with it (aside from later speculation on teammates when we get a scum flip, which the now-relevant part of the analysis certainly does not preclude).

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:09 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:47 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.

I don't understand what other thing(s) you thought he could have done with it (aside from later speculation on teammates when we get a scum flip, which the now-relevant part of the analysis certainly does not preclude).

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:47 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm

Spoiler: show

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm

Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show

This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig.

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show

[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy

While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?

First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote.

Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.

And maybe dunya is bad, right?

In my opinion dunya is a civ for reasons Jimmy has laboured, that she IS one combined with what you've discovered through your analysis is a possible pointer to who is the don. That is to say someone who either isn't aware of her apparent proficiency as a civ player OR someone who chose to let her remain a civ because they either wanted the challenge or felt that there were better options than her.

I think you can rule out a handful of players as the Don at least as a result of this. Namely many of the RYMers, particularly the less confident ones. I could see Jimmy choosing not to pick her for the challenge of it. The rest of the RYMers would pick her imo.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:14 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:13 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:47 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm

Spoiler: show

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm

Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show

This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig.

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show

[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy

While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?

First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote.

Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.

And maybe dunya is bad, right?

In my opinion dunya is a civ for reasons Jimmy has laboured, that she IS one combined with what you've discovered through your analysis is a possible pointer to who is the don. That is to say someone who either isn't aware of her apparent proficiency as a civ player OR someone who chose to let her remain a civ because they either wanted the challenge or felt that there were better options than her.

I think you can rule out a handful of players as the Don at least as a result of this. Namely many of the RYMers, particularly the less confident ones. I could see Jimmy choosing not to pick her for the challenge of it. The rest of the RYMers would pick her imo.

That wine in front of you, d'you think it's poisoned?

I'm just ignoring you for the rest of the game k?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:46 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:16 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:10 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:22 am I think you’re a very capable mafioso, dunya, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see you selected by the don in a vacuum.

We’re not playing in a vacuum though. Your posting rate in this game through three quarters of a cycle has been the highest I have ever seen. By anyone. Period. When you say you’re incapable of 500 substantive posts this quickly as a mafioso, I believe you. I’m not capable of 500 mafia posts that quickly either unless I blatantly spam. Your posts are not spam.

Nobody in this game is capable of that. Not even Epignosis himself. Feel free to try to prove me wrong at some point, anyone.

I am told I underestimate dunya. This is not about dunya. This is about the capacity for a human being to falsify so much so quickly. I have never seen it to the degree that it would be if dunya is mafia. Never in any game. Not even the counterexample I often cite (MP in the scrimmage) meets that standard.

Maybe someday someone will shatter this theory I have. Until it actually happens though I am not going to change my tune. It is the most reliable civilian tell in the book.

Many people have the mentality that “X player can be mafia under any circumstances”, and I think they’re wrong.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:29 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:23 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:46 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:16 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:10 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:39 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:36 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:29 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:23 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:46 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:16 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:10 pm

What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:42 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:01 pm I lost my train of thought:

Mafia are more likely to vote because they need to appear to be leveling up every phase. Civs are more likely to vote because they want to level up.

Where does that leave people who were around and didn't vote?

This is NAI as shit. Both sides want stronger abilities.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:44 am

Spoiler: show

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:42 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:39 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:36 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:29 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:23 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:46 am
I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

I'm not specifically asking you and engaging you, by the way, cos you're definitely scumella, but like, this is a question for everyone who actually DID name me. I named people I'd enjoy being scum with and built a dangerous scum team; I didn't put myself in don mode and start to strategically analyze who I should and shouldn't draft. I don't take GTH Read games or these sorts of exercises seriously enough to base everything on because they can be severely misconstrued imo.

Please point to anybody casting suspicion on you because you must have been recruited? I don't really recall it happening.

It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:50 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:34 am What is she falsifying?

When I'm scum, i almost always present the same reads I would if I was town, with the slight shifting upwards of my mafia mates. That means it's actually super easy to generate some 'fake' pings, because civs are often pingy, especially early. Where it gets harder is making full read lists, because hang around after you flip and are ripe for analysis,, plus being obvious if you shift somebody much. I don't recall dunya doing a rainbow, although it's quite possible she did, I'm not going through that ISO. But you seem to be implying that all those posts can't be falsified, and I don't know why they all have to be.

Any read provided by a mafioso [in a one mafia team game] other than Teammate X is mafia is false. Any post made in the thread with the intent of assuming a civilian appearance without featuring reads is fake. I'm placing them under the same umbrella. It doesn't account for every post, but it accounts for most. The exceptions would be spam and banter, and I don't think a huge portion of the 500+ in dunya's case are either of those.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:52 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:50 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:44 am

Spoiler: show

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:42 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:39 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:36 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:29 am
It was an answer to "she did have the most picks by a significant margin".

By the time I got to the middle of my reply, I realized I was replying to nutella but I posted anyway.

Yes but did anybody actually suspect you for it outside of this little exercise?

...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:04 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:55 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:52 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:50 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:44 am

Spoiler: show

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:42 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:39 am
...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

Ok now I'm super confused.

My understanding is that you are putting forth the argument that no Mafia Don would pick you or JJJ as a teammate because everybody would suspect that you two would be chosen. Is this correct or incorrect?

that's only like a fraction of my post which wasn't intended as a sole argument, but one notch against Epi's survey results which try to implicate me. His argument ends with with "if 50% of players said she's on their team, why didn't anyone vote for her Day 1 except Wilgy" (first of all, I had to debunk that those 50% were original, 100% honest answers....cos I still don't believe 11.5 players (lol) would all have 100% chosen me. I don't believe that at all.)

Second of all, I know you don't know this for certain, but I know I'm town-aligned and I have a strong feeling Jay is too, so I don't agree with his points at all. I'm his greatest opposition. People didn't vote for me at all in Mountains either, not even 1 vote, and I was a town leader all the way, and that was after I subbed in for sprityo who was a suspect. Answer this: why? Because I'm a good civilian player and convince people I'm civ. I don't care if people said they'd recruit me before the game started. I'm town, and I don't have to accumulate votes based on a survey of hypotheticals which can be misconstrued easily.

am I making myself clear cos I feel I am?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:17 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:14 am None of this addresses my questions though.

Because you're being very vague. You asked me "is this correct or incorrect?" directly, and I said "that's only a fraction of my posts which wasn't intended as a sole argument" and explained what I meant.

It's like taking something out of context and trying to speculate on intent. Context is everything.

Be clear in your questions please.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:26 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:55 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:52 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:50 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:44 am

Spoiler: show

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:42 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:39 am
...no. that's the point.

.... what?

"Jay and I are bad choices because people would suspect us as being picked."
"Did anybody suspect you as being picked?"
"No."

If nobody suspected you, that seems to point to the fact that the argument isn't correct?

....are you confused?

outside of this little exercise?

I assume by little exercise you meant Epi's survey and the results.

All my posts were revolving around it and what he's implying.

Except the paragraph I highlighted is just talking about a Don's mentality before the game, not the exercise.

Except it happened after the survey's results, and based on them. If I'm mistaken, show me.

Ok now I'm super confused.

My understanding is that you are putting forth the argument that no Mafia Don would pick you or JJJ as a teammate because everybody would suspect that you two would be chosen. Is this correct or incorrect?

This is incorrect.

Have I answered your question now?

I think any don worth their salt would have foreseen these implications with me and Jay specifically. Saying I'd choose Jay and not dunya or dunya and not Jay is almost like saying both of us are ticking timebombs. Why even try to recruit either of us when people are going to assume we're recruited because we're very strong civ players who should be recruited?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:56 pm

Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:50 am Voted for ColinIsCool in the poll. He feels like a genuine town. Can't really point to anything suspicious in his post history. Better safe than sorry. If dunya is indeed civ, she is a valuable asset, but you still run the risk she might be scum. Leaning towards the former, but it remains risky.

wouldn't the same thing be true about Colin?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:55 pm Fun facts:

To my knowledge, the highest post count ever achieved in a Syndicate game by a mafia-aligned player was MacDougall's 940+ (discounting post-game content) in the 2015 GOC. He survived all 11.5 cycles of that game, averaging about 80 posts per cycle. Keep in mind also that this game had two mafia teams, meaning Mac was able to genuinely hunt.

The civilian record belongs to Richochet at about 1,470 in the same game. There's also my 1,450 in Talking Heads (14.5 cycles).

If dunya's present pace were to be cut in half and sustained as such from this point forward through 11.5 cycles, she would amass nearly 3,300 posts. She would significantly more than triple the record for mafia-aligned posts and double the record for civilian-aligned posts.

Simple question: within which alignment is that easier to accomplish? If you tell me there is no difference, I will tell you that you fundamentally don't understand Mafia.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:42 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:38 pm Guys I think y'all are missing the point of the poll. Thieves are alright but recruiting that Myrmidon early and promoting him into the crit machine swordmaster is a way better idea.

(disclaimer, most of my FE experience is actually with the copycat Battle for Wesnoth so)

does being in an army speed up experience gain?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:30 pm 20 cool points to be awarded to the first person to ISO Dr. White's posts and actually say something. I am yelling underwater here. The only person to do so thoroughly so far to my memory has been nutella.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:57 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:48 pm A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

What about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:41 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:06 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:04 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:57 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:48 pm A quick ISO shows a weird suppression of any d1 reads - he gets on Mac for early reads not based on much, then JJJ for an early strong townread. It doesn't get my dander up as much as JJJ's, but I don't like it either. I'd put him in Orange territory (reminds me I should do a rainbow soon)

What about his assertion that he "firmly" believed there was scum in sprityo/kites/LC?

Missed that (I did say quick after all). What was the reasoning?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 34#p407534

For some reason he grouped together sprityo's claim that one vote could kill him with LC's and Kites' pattern of acting ignorant.

What about Dr. White himself trying to recruit Iron_Dwarf before it was even his turn to recruit. Does that fall under "acting ignorant" category?

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:37 am

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:17 am

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:16 am

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:41 am

Kites wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:35 am colonialbob - changed his votes frequently, almost exclusively between inactive people to invite them to talk - afraid to be responsible for false lynch?

I called him out on that. He said he was moving his vote between inactives in case he wasn't here during the end of day so that if they were lynched, he wouldn't feel bad, or less bad, since they were inactives. Or something like that. Does that make you feel better or worse about him?

dunno, nutella lynch was going already p strong before he started switching and at that point i was sure that an inactive wasn’t going be lynched that day so they feel like throwaway votes

The point was he wasn't feeling a nutella lynch. He didn't want to support it.

”i don’t like this, i don’t like that, i wanna vote someone who’s not going to come back here and question my vote” not much thought process behind any of it, gotta say that the quin bandwagon was convenient tho
the guy is suspicious imo but i’ll wait and see what’s gonna happen in the next 48 hours

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:33 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:31 am Which was explained at the time

Did you explain why you suspected rabbit8? I missed it, sorry. Or just forgot. Why did you?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:43 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:41 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:39 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:15 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:56 am What is weird about rabbit being AWOL?

I figure it's indicative of him being a civilian, in that he wouldn't bail on a mafia team like that, especially a mafia team that he would have hand-selected, or was hand-selected for.

This is why I don't think we should lynch rabbit.

Why not DrWilgy? Or lapluie?

Didn't like rabbits draft behaviour. Nothing about the other two stood out to me.

I didn't like it either, he delayed the thread. Do you think it was a scum rabbit8, imposing sanctions on his teammates though?

Sanctions? Could have been a pause that extended unintentionally. Honestly his "no" was worse than the extended absence in my eyes. What possible motivation is there for a civ to not give somebody a role?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:12 pm [VOTE: Iron_Dwarf] aubergine

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:27 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:32 pm @dunya Why does nutella townreading you without providing a lot of justification make you think she's scum?

try any justification. and I have made other points against her, this is not the only reason I suspect her, it's just one point in her rainbow list that didn't add up for me.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:07 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:57 pm [VOTE: iron_dwarf ] aubergine

I'm on board this train and also probably won't be around much for the rest of the evening so I'd like to throw my aubergine down while i can.

another low(ish) poster you're immediately on board with. last day phase it was lap/rabbit. now it was a quick I_D vote.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:42 pm

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:03 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:33 pm I am less suspicious of Colin now though. I don't believe his argument, but I believe he believes it. Starting to feel like a Town/Town argument.

[VOTE: rabbit8] aubergine

Why?

linki: Wat?

@colonialbob Did you ever answer this?

sig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:58 pm What does everyone think of Bob and DDF?


I feel like if one of them is mafia the Pegasus knight under them is mafia as well.