The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:08 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:06 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:03 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:02 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:56 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:52 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:48 pm nutella, why do you think Epi and Colin are both civilians?
because there's no baddie motive that makes sense for what either of them are doing. (and because I have town read both of them for other reasons)
I don't agree with the former. What are the other reasons?
Epi is doing his "I don't care what you think" schtick, and Colin has provided a couple other original thoughts/insights and overall his iso gave me town feels.
Share with us the minutes between your post declaring intent to iso Colin and your brief summary post of his iso plz?
I don't understand this? do you want the amount of time it took me to write that post? I don't do elaborate iso analyses like some other people, I just skim it and write out general impressions, maybe with one or two quotes, so it doesn't take very long
So you do understand it. Yes how many minutes did it take you to analyse his iso?

Looks like it was 5 minutes

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:15 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:06 pm I don't do elaborate iso analyses like some other people, I just skim it and write out general impressions, maybe with one or two quotes, so it doesn't take very long
I didn't feel that way reading your Dr. White iso today. It felt pretty comprehensive, though non-conclusive. Even after ISOing him, you refused to give a firm read on him, calling him decent overall, but leaving plenty of room to be swayed one way or the other, then asked Jimmy on what bad he saw in him. Opportunism.

Epi cases ColinIsCool, in great depth, amidst your downfall with RYMers and you take it as a lifeline to see what Epi has cooked up.

MacDougall mentions a possible RDW scumslip - you really jumped for that one. MacDougall claims it was a gag, and you back off.

WIFOM - I didn't go after Colin, because Colin is definitely town. TMI.

Voting for MacDougall when he was an easy lynch target being on holiday and all, then quickly following Long Con on the Shaman whom you drafted (which is still a question mark for me) makes two bad vote lynch decisions that look really opportunistic for you.

reeks of opportunism on all fronts this phase.

ok first of all my Dr. White iso was also pretty quick, it was more than I usually do, sure, but not comprehensive. I don't get how it was opportunistic either, I finished the iso feeling quite good about him, and you are mischaracterizing my question to jay.

Don't get what you're saying re: epi and colin

I didn't "really jump" for the mac thing, I was confused about what he was talking about and asked for an explanation and he gave one.

and again, I just don't agree with the suspicion on Colin. simple as that.

I'll admit my votes so far haven't been great choices, but they were reflective of my thoughts at the time I made them, and also my passive gives me a bit of a limitation there (which is also the reason I haven't put my vote on someone else yet despite not wanting my vote to be on tony anymore)

because I changed my mind on them later and now think both of them are more likely town?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:48 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:33 pm because I changed my mind on them later and now think both of them are more likely town?
What do you think of your drafting decisions?

you mean my decision to give Tony the role he asked for? I've answered that already. I gave it to the first person who gave me a clear preference as I wanted to move it along

sig wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:00 pm Epi and Collins is civ on civ

One of the supertown people is mafia no doubt

the other mafia are lurking

Rabbit's gone AWALL which is weird.

For my shots I'm tempting to start trimming off no posters thoughts?

this guy knows what's up. I would join him in the rabbit vote, but I'd somewhat prefer one of the other lurkers (wilgy, lapluie, a little less so iron dwarf) over my fellow pegasus, I'd rather give him a chance to appear

naming the players who have not posted this phase is not salad

or was that because I said that to iron dwarf and now put him below the other two? I just said a little less on him because he has now returned and given input

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:16 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:14 pm naming the players who have not posted this phase is not salad
"I would consider lynching X or Y or Z, or W to a lesser degree..." is prototype salad.

Not in this context. I was specifically talking about the lurkers, which I have brought up before. if that qualifies as salad I think you need to rethink your definition

what's the current vote tally?

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] it was probably Mass Effect?

[mention]sig[/mention] Mac made a fake callout of rdw as a "trap", he didn't really scumread him, and as for kyle you may be remembering Tony's mysterious accusation of Kyle which he still has not explained

linki: oh jay says it was SFQ, which I didn't win ftr

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:37 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:34 pm @Epignosis it was probably Mass Effect?
Nah, I was independent there and wouldn't have bothered. I was a civilian in the game I'm talking about.

You lost your shit over something like the time of the poll ending. Really over the top. It's so powerful I refuse to believe any emotional outburst you ever have again.

Yeah that was SFQ. My team lost.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:51 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:46 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:45 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:36 pm @sig Mac made a fake callout of rdw as a "trap", he didn't really scumread him, and as for kyle you may be remembering Tony's mysterious accusation of Kyle which he still has not explained

linki: oh jay says it was SFQ, which I didn't win ftr
Does anyone else have any thoughts on Kyle? Cause I'm surprised by the lack of thoughts on Kyle.
I think a better question is, do you have any thoughts on me? because you've brought me up twice now as a discussion topic without really giving a reason why.

If you want people to talk about me then be the change you want to see in the world.
I think I've come to the conclusion that I'm wrong / can't support myself but I want other people to tell me I'm wrong so I can feel better about switching my vote.

Can you please explain what it is you think you have on him? Nobody can tell you you're wrong if you don't say what it is you're thinking. I've seen Kyle's town style.

I don't really want to vote for rabbit tbh partially because he's my fellow pegasus and I'd prefer to give him a chance to get in here, and partially because I don't think his absence is indicative of a scum alignment -- he's been gone longer than the other two inactives (wilgy and lapluie) and I don't think he's even been online since he missed his chance to draft someone. If he were mafia he'd have been back by now. I'd be much more inclined to lynch wilgy or lap.

Kenway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:47 am Good grief. My eyes hurt.

VOTE: TONYSTARKPRIME

What is your reasoning for this vote?

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] can we unvote without moving onto someone else?

if so UNVOTE TONYSTARKPRIME I would have done this ages ago had the possibility occurred to me lol

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:13 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:45 am
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:43 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:40 amNo. It doesn't bother me at all.
Why?
I already explained this.

I am going to lynch somebody myself. All by myself.

Your votes don't count.
I also don't really think this thing where you take control of the entire lynch is a good idea. Regardless of whether you have good ideas about who should be lynched, and regardless of whether you're even telling the truth about having a lynch switch at all, claiming that you do risks stifles discussion. If people believe their votes don't matter then they'll spend less time talking about who they're going to vote for and who they suspect. I don't see what the positive is supposed to be.

this is a good point tbh. I don't like being told that nobody's votes matter on day 1 and I don't like leaving the lynch in the hands of one person who doesn't have any more knowledge than anyone else (presumably). that being said, I'd be happy if circumstances lead to my surviving the lynch, I just hope it's not another valuable civ who ends up dying instead

...k.... it really sounded like you had something more concrete but whatever. guess you've changed your mind, that's fine, I was just bewildered by how you worded your initial statement about him

linki, eh not really beyond what he's said about being wary of reading me wrong. but like his stubbornness about it seems like epi being epi

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:15 am
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:10 amlinki, eh not really beyond what he's said about being wary of reading me wrong. but like his stubbornness about it seems like epi being epi
do you have a read on epi?

I have said that I think he's town and I still do

rundontwalk
JaggedJimmyJay
dunya
MacDougall
sprityo
gwilikers6
Kylemii
colonialbob
Epignosis
Dragon D. Luffy
Marmot
Dr. White
ColinIsCool
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
rabbit8
Iron_Dwarf
Kenway
Kites
Quin
lapluie
DrWilgy

thanks I'm very proud of them

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:05 am
Spoiler: show
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:25 am rundontwalk
JaggedJimmyJay
dunya
MacDougall
sprityo
gwilikers6
Kylemii
colonialbob
Epignosis
Dragon D. Luffy
Marmot
Dr. White
ColinIsCool
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
rabbit8
Iron_Dwarf
Kenway
Kites
Quin
lapluie
DrWilgy

You forgot me Nutella

Ah so I did, so sorry about that -- I definitely had you in there while editing and you somehow got deleted. You should be right about next to where Sprityo is. Pretty solid civ read

Woke up to 300+ posts to catch up on, I'm almost done and [mention]dunya[/mention] I see you asked me a couple things, I'll get to those soon. And I really don't want to get lynched you guys

I don't blame some of you for not knowing my meta, but I promise if you give me past my wishy-washy day 1 to get comfortable I can be a valuable scumhunter.

So far I've liked DDL's points on Kenway (and huh I vaguely remember serge) and I feel similarly re: Kites, but I think the case on Quin is the strongest right now -- I still have like 2 pages to read so I'm not sure if he's gotten more votes and I will probably end up voting out of self-preservation if possible (unless Epi is telling the truth about his switch), but for now I think Quin has been looking pretty bad, he posted a bunch of fluff during the draft but once the actual phase started his activity dropped off and he barely provided any content, including saying he had no scum reads.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:46 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:42 pm [VOTE: Quin] aubergine
YUCK.

Gross.

"Disgusting."

etc.

For starters, you vote for MY second suspect. For finals, why not lap or Wilgy as per your rainbow? Nope. Fake. Not buying it.

oh wait.... shit. I think I fucked up and my vote doesn't count. I thought someone had voted for Quin before that. My passive is I can't put the first vote on someone. Uhh what's the tally

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:42 pm
sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:05 am
Spoiler: show
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:25 am rundontwalk
JaggedJimmyJay
dunya
MacDougall
sprityo
gwilikers6
Kylemii
colonialbob
Epignosis
Dragon D. Luffy
Marmot
Dr. White
ColinIsCool
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
rabbit8
Iron_Dwarf
Kenway
Kites
Quin
lapluie
DrWilgy

You forgot me Nutella
Ah so I did, so sorry about that -- I definitely had you in there while editing and you somehow got deleted. You should be right about next to where Sprityo is. Pretty solid civ read

Woke up to 300+ posts to catch up on, I'm almost done and @dunya I see you asked me a couple things, I'll get to those soon. And I really don't want to get lynched you guys I don't blame some of you for not knowing my meta, but I promise if you give me past my wishy-washy day 1 to get comfortable I can be a valuable scumhunter.

So far I've liked DDL's points on Kenway (and huh I vaguely remember serge) and I feel similarly re: Kites, but I think the case on Quin is the strongest right now -- I still have like 2 pages to read so I'm not sure if he's gotten more votes and I will probably end up voting out of self-preservation if possible (unless Epi is telling the truth about his switch), but for now I think Quin has been looking pretty bad, he posted a bunch of fluff during the draft but once the actual phase started his activity dropped off and he barely provided any content, including saying he had no scum reads.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine
Out of curiousity, you liked DDL's case on Kenway.

Who's case on Quin did you like? Same question about Kites.

My own and my own

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:04 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:02 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:46 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:42 pm [VOTE: Quin] aubergine
YUCK.

Gross.

"Disgusting."

etc.

For starters, you vote for MY second suspect. For finals, why not lap or Wilgy as per your rainbow? Nope. Fake. Not buying it.
oh wait.... shit. I think I fucked up and my vote doesn't count. I thought someone had voted for Quin before that. My passive is I can't put the first vote on someone. Uhh what's the tally
DDL voted for him after you. Do you want to keep your vote on Quin?

I think so but since mine was first it doesn't count rn so I'll have to switch it.

UNVOTE QUIN

VOTE RABBIT8

UNVOTE RABBIT8

[VOTE: quin] aubergine

I hope that works lmao I'm an idiot

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:12 am
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:25 am rundontwalk
JaggedJimmyJay
dunya
MacDougall
sprityo
gwilikers6
Kylemii
colonialbob
Epignosis
Dragon D. Luffy
Marmot
Dr. White
ColinIsCool
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
rabbit8
Iron_Dwarf
Kenway
Kites
Quin
lapluie
DrWilgy

For someone who put Epi/Colin in the civ/civ pile, Colin sure is thrown down under Epi for strategic reasons, isn't he? Easier to lynch for you?

Tell me more about kites and what you think of kites. Is this your first ever mention of him, to put him so low on your rainbow. Explain.

Why do you think lap and Wilgy are more likely to be scum than anyone else?

Kites has been blendy af, I should look at his ISO because there might have been a specific ping that I've forgotten but atm the fact that I don't remember anything specific from him is enough of a ping.

Lap and Wilgy are suspicious because they have not posted at all D1 (well now Wilgy has appeared and posted a little bit, we'll see where that goes) and I associate both of them with different civ metas that I have not seen thus far.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:58 am
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:25 am rundontwalk
JaggedJimmyJay
dunya
MacDougall
sprityo
gwilikers6
Kylemii
colonialbob
Epignosis
Dragon D. Luffy
Marmot
Dr. White
ColinIsCool
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
rabbit8
Iron_Dwarf
Kenway
Kites
Quin
lapluie
DrWilgy

I'd also like to learn why sprityo is so high up your list. Your only mention of him was in a side passing civ cred for something Dr. White suspected sprityo off and you awarded him town points for it. Is that the extent of it? Your 5th most trusted townie because of that?

actually, forget sprityo, why the hell do you town read ME and have me as your 3rd strongest civ read? You haven't mentioned me even once in civ light. Literally, nothing. Nada. I just ISOd you and ctrl+f'd my name and read every mention of me you made and every cross reference and reply. And you had ample opportunity to come to my defences yesterday. You avoided the Epi/dunya/JJJ drama beautifully, even though you were around and posting other things. You were quick to jump on my Quin line of questioning in possible buddying and agreement, but otherwise, you've kept interactions with me strictly mechanic-related at general question, defending yourself, or about other people and never about me. This is gross. I'm grossed out. Explain immediately.

I think sprityo's bastard (or whatever it's called, the thing where he doesn't want votes) claim looked like a pretty genuinely town thing. He could be faking I guess but I have gotten town vibes from him otherwise.

And you are an obvious townread lol I just agree with Jay on that. If you're bad you'd win mafia player of the decade.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:10 pm @nutella why do you read dunya as a civilian?

just answered that. same reason you do

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:15 pm My civilian lock:

Spoiler: show
MacDougall

My top suspect:

Spoiler: show
rundontwalk

Who dies today:

Spoiler: show
What, did you really think I would tell? Naughty, naughty!

Why do you suspect rdw?

[mention]DrWilgy[/mention], if you haven't actually been on the site then you may be absolved. I just expect more from you. I know lap has been on the site and hasn't posted at all and I grouped you with her, but maybe you've been busy. What are your thoughts rn?

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:23 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:04 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:42 pm
sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:05 am
Spoiler: show
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:25 am rundontwalk
JaggedJimmyJay
dunya
MacDougall
sprityo
gwilikers6
Kylemii
colonialbob
Epignosis
Dragon D. Luffy
Marmot
Dr. White
ColinIsCool
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
rabbit8
Iron_Dwarf
Kenway
Kites
Quin
lapluie
DrWilgy

You forgot me Nutella
Ah so I did, so sorry about that -- I definitely had you in there while editing and you somehow got deleted. You should be right about next to where Sprityo is. Pretty solid civ read

Woke up to 300+ posts to catch up on, I'm almost done and @dunya I see you asked me a couple things, I'll get to those soon. And I really don't want to get lynched you guys I don't blame some of you for not knowing my meta, but I promise if you give me past my wishy-washy day 1 to get comfortable I can be a valuable scumhunter.

So far I've liked DDL's points on Kenway (and huh I vaguely remember serge) and I feel similarly re: Kites, but I think the case on Quin is the strongest right now -- I still have like 2 pages to read so I'm not sure if he's gotten more votes and I will probably end up voting out of self-preservation if possible (unless Epi is telling the truth about his switch), but for now I think Quin has been looking pretty bad, he posted a bunch of fluff during the draft but once the actual phase started his activity dropped off and he barely provided any content, including saying he had no scum reads.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine
Out of curiousity, you liked DDL's case on Kenway.

Who's case on Quin did you like? Same question about Kites.
My own and my own
Here's why I asked, and I'm going to dissect your line of thinking. You said above you "liked DDL's points on Kenway", "feel similarly re: Kites", and think "the case on Quin is the strongest".

You shared views with DDL on Kenway. Cool. You feel similarly re: Kites. Who do you feel similarly with? You think the case on Quin is the strongest. You didn't say your case, you said the case, and this is the only thing I can find that you said before your vote wert Quin.

OK, well I agreed with whoever said that Kites was as blendy as Kenway. Not much of a "case" but I had already put him orange in my rainbow due to sketchy vibes. And I developed my own thoughts on Quin though I may not have posted all my thoughts on him, I guess I agreed with what dunya and some others (jay? idr) said about him but reached those conclusions on my own volition.

[mention]dunya[/mention] why don't you change your vote to him then

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:37 pm nutella, quickly tell me what you think of your other three voters -- gwilikers6, MacDougall, and ColinIsCool.

See my rainbow. Gwil is a strong civ read, Mac a medium-civ read, and Colin a light civ-neutral read.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:36 pm @dunya why don't you change your vote to him then
I agree that the case against Quin is compelling, especially after revisiting it and he will be my vote for Day 2 for sure. My case against you is a lot stronger, specifically with regards to how you've interacted with me, the greatest Town asset Town has --- --- move over JJJ.

what hasn't satisfied you about my interactions with you specifically? I thought I was ur bff

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] you have 8 minutes vote for quin he;s bad

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:39 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:38 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:37 pm nutella, quickly tell me what you think of your other three voters -- gwilikers6, MacDougall, and ColinIsCool.
See my rainbow. Gwil is a strong civ read, Mac a medium-civ read, and Colin a light civ-neutral read.
How do you feel that four players you read in the civilian direction to some degree are trying to lynch you?

they're wrong

2 of them are unfamiliar with my meta, and dunya is tunnelling for some reason, and Mac loves to go after me

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:43 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:39 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:36 pm @dunya why don't you change your vote to him then
I agree that the case against Quin is compelling, especially after revisiting it and he will be my vote for Day 2 for sure. My case against you is a lot stronger, specifically with regards to how you've interacted with me, the greatest Town asset Town has --- --- move over JJJ.
what hasn't satisfied you about my interactions with you specifically? I thought I was ur bff
The fact you did not give any read on me whatsoever, did not chip to defend me amidst the Epi dunya JJJ drama that happened last night when I was your third highest town dark green read and the fact you haven't tinfoiled me even slightly, even once. Where's the wishy washy nutella you keep reminding us of?

...drama? Epi was just being silly, I think it went without saying that you and jay are town. It was just like his silly tinfoil in Fiddler. I haven't had any reason to tinfoil you. Should I?

linki: wow thanks kyle and LC and marmot putting quin in the lead. boo on you jay

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:47 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:44 pm @dunya
@gwilikers6

What do you think of nutella placing a vote for what she believed to be a small wagon -- and then a non-existent wagon -- on Quin? The self-preservation opportunity is an Epignosis vote at that point.
she knows her days are numbered and is going for the WIFOM imo. She was probably trying to crack me by voting for my second lead. idk. nutella's bad, just like she was in The Search for Quin.

Nope.

Quin is at 7 I think? Did you count LC's vote?

huh... no lynch... k

[mention]Marmot[/mention] I don't understand what you're doing but couldn't it get messed up with misdirects though right? and your own cavalier thing? like... if I target you with my misdirect, you will absorb stuff for a random target

wtf jack edited marmot's post? what the hell

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] [mention]MacDougall[/mention] [mention]sprityo[/mention] do you guys have any idea what the post and the "trio of adventuring" stuff in the OP is all about

Kites wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:31 pm btw are we allowed to talk during night

Jack opened the thread so yes ofc

dunya is my highest townread who is available on the poll/not already on one of the armies so voting for her

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:01 pm We should try to recruit one of the enemy roles.

wait what? what do you mean by "enemy roles"? also I don't know offhand what all the rules about Rico's Army are but wouldn't it be bad for scum to be on it if it's beneficial? am I thinking about this wrong

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:04 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:02 pm
gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:01 pm We should try to recruit one of the enemy roles.
wait what? what do you mean by "enemy roles"? also I don't know offhand what all the rules about Rico's Army are but wouldn't it be bad for scum to be on it if it's beneficial? am I thinking about this wrong
Look at the ones on the bottom of the poll. It's the two who were revealed to be from Badguyia, but we can vote to recruit them. I don't have any real reason to suggest this, just out of curiosity.

oh I see what you mean, but yeah I don't see a reason why

[mention]Epignosis[/mention], there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:10 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
What about 3J? Why single out dunya?

Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:17 pm Is it still night or is it day again? I am confused. Did he just lock the thread briefly at EOD and then open it for night chats?

Yeah he just locked temporarily at the vote deadline so nobody could talk from then until the lynch post, then reopened it for night discussion

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:24 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
People who said they would pick one rym player are people I am not inclined to question. I believe that. When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.

So that doesn't bother me.

The people who didn't get named at all are misfits. Again, I am calling them all civilians until further notice. They are not cleared.

....I legitimately do not understand this answer. If you would have picked an RYMer, and you believe that others would have as well, why are you saying that 3 RYMers are "civilian until further notice"?

The way I see it, some people who know certain RYM players named a specific one that they would have picked, but some people (such as myself) who didn't know any of the new RYM players said that they would have picked one of them, more or less at random because they are all equally unfamiliar. So, I guess it follows that the ones who were specifically named have a somewhat higher chance of having been picked, but the ones who weren't should still have a nonzero number in your list (perhaps 1/however many of the new players there are) to account for those of us who said we'd have picked one of the new players.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.

I don't understand what other thing(s) you thought he could have done with it (aside from later speculation on teammates when we get a scum flip, which the now-relevant part of the analysis certainly does not preclude).

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show
This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig.

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.

Votes:

Spoiler: show
[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy

While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote.

Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.

And maybe dunya is bad, right?

Bro you need a nap

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:01 pm I've made other mistakes if anybody wants to point them out. I don't give a shit.

Nah I don't care either. I do care who you suspect. Answer sig's question

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