The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:33 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:31 am I don't care what makes more sense. I care that your argument has actual gaping holes in it. Because it is entirely fabricated.
There is no way I ever seriously give 3-post TSP a civilian card in this game on the basis of Persona 5 lol. That's a terrible read.

Well, I did. And it looks like it was a great read.

It's not exactly purely in comparison to P5, more just the lack of participation on its own merit points to more likely town.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:34 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:32 am Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.
If I am a cat in this game, I view TSP as one of the most obvious mislynch opportunities on the board. I never bother taking him off the board in the first place with this fancy bullshit ploy. I just lynch him. And I bet I succeed.

No. Not even remotely realistic. I'm actually incredulous right now at how obviously you're lying.

Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:39 am To be clear, I'm not calling you dumb nutella. I'm calling the JJJ you think I am a giant moron.

The inane "thesis" framing wasn't helping your case.

I'm going to bed. [mention]MacDougall[/mention] tell me I'm right.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:41 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:40 am Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.
Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.

Second or third time you've literally scum slipped l m f a o

Perspective slips are a real thing hang on let me explain

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:45 am We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

I get that but you still said "I just lynched sprityo" whereas I, a townie, think of it as merely "I participated in a sprityo lynch" and it's your tone in a few other places. I can't be assed to find it rn but there was something earlier that struck me as a similar perspective slip but I shrugged it off at the time.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:48 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:41 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:40 am Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.
Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.
you know what the problem is? You just voted for him. You needed town help for the lynch.
The bolded is fake

Got em

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:51 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:47 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:45 am We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.
I get that but you still said "I just lynched sprityo" whereas I, a townie, think of it as merely "I participated in a sprityo lynch" and it's your tone in a few other places. I can't be assed to find it rn but there was something earlier that struck me as a similar perspective slip but I shrugged it off at the time.
I was the first on his wagon, and I was the most frequent promoter of his demise. No, I did not lynch him alone, but plenty of the blame lies with me. The point here is that if I am a cat and I drove a sprityo mislynch for my own gain, driving a Tony mislynch would have not been a terribly different enterprise. I have done things like that as a mafioso in probably every game I have had the role. It's essential.

Except you had some content to base the sprityo lynch on. There was something to go on. The same could not be said for Tony. I would not have joined you there because there would be no reasoning.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:00 am nutella, can you expand on why you don't think it can be Michelle? If she can removed from the POE then none of this junk matters and the game is probably over anyway.

Hard tone read mostly, but it has a stronger basis than my fayt read. I might explain more in the morning I really gotta sleep

Let me just say that if the iron man experiment is real, it is in fact genius. I need to sleep on it tbh.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:49 am No one else finds it weird that Jay went to an office at 1AM and then at 3AM went to bed?
No one?

It's Jay. That is par for the course. He said he was going back because his computer was there and he wanted to compile his bullshit defense essay.

Also did you miss his whole essay deal bc somehow you caught up without commenting on it.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:17 am
Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:49 am No one else finds it weird that Jay went to an office at 1AM and then at 3AM went to bed?
No one?
I just assumed he was not on Eastern Standard Time.

I think he is. He's just weird. Why is this such a big deal? There are much more interesting things to pick at re: Jay.

I mean you can extend those details to something like mac's point, that Jay put way too much effort into his elaborate civ case.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:23 am
Dragomir wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:27 am I have an idea. Let's lynch Fayt, if he's not the last mafia. Vig shoots Jay next night.
@nutella what do you think about this?

Fine with it, also fine with the other way around.

I guess I'm more eager to find out if I'm right about Jay sooner but whatever it can be either way.

The perspective slip thing is such a minor thing in the grand scheme of things so I don't care much that you see it that way-- for me it was a little more nuanced than that and again I swear I saw an earlier similar thing but I can't remember.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:08 pm You think it's not a big deal that Jay is obviously lying and had no intentions of ever really clearing his name?

zero idea what you're talking about here. he wasn't lying about going to the office, but he was lying about his whole civ clear thing which he clearly had intentions to do, it just didn't work out. I do not follow your wording here.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:14 pm To be clear, Jay, in my opinion, said what he said about clearing his name hoping everyone would forget he hadn't actually followed through on that. He then made up a lie about having to go to his office for his computer, which he apparently did at 1AM, only to turn around and go back home at 3AM to do.

Yet, he posted the stuff detailing people's interactions with speedchuck no problem.

oh I think I see what you're saying. I was trying to figure out the timing of it, bc of course he had been planning to post that whole thing at some point this phase but it's weird that he left his computer at work and had to go back for it if he had been eagerly awaiting the reveal of his grand experiment. I suppose the holding back on it was just deliberately messing with us though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:16 pm For all the “Jay put too much effort into the defense” shite, I can provide an explanation and see who even gives a damn.

We keep blowing leads this year, Syndicate civilians. Over and over. Scrimmage, Steely Dan, Shockheaded Peter, that one game where Quin (I think?) was the last mafia.

People have spent the whole game telling me how catty I am, with incredibly confident tones at times, and I am according a high-probability mislynch on any day for the remainder of the game. If that happens, we’re that much closer the blowing another lead. So yes, I put effort into explaining why I feel that TSP kill was a cat mistake which should exonerate me. The alternative theory is completely stupid tinfoil junk. I genuinely hoped folks would see that. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened and my effort to get out of mislynch range backfired.

A vigilante is a good solution to the Jay problem — even if that means vigging Fayt after I’m lynched.

I just feel like if the whole "Iron Man Experiment" thing was real, you'd have been way more eager to tell us much sooner after Tony was NKed. Instead you waited to see if you really had to do it.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:21 pm Is that nutella glomming onto my point? : O

I think so. I did find it weird that he had to go back to get his computer since he was purportedly planning to post the thing all along. I think he waited because he knew it was a gamble.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:20 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:16 pm For all the “Jay put too much effort into the defense” shite, I can provide an explanation and see who even gives a damn.

We keep blowing leads this year, Syndicate civilians. Over and over. Scrimmage, Steely Dan, Shockheaded Peter, that one game where Quin (I think?) was the last mafia.

People have spent the whole game telling me how catty I am, with incredibly confident tones at times, and I am according a high-probability mislynch on any day for the remainder of the game. If that happens, we’re that much closer the blowing another lead. So yes, I put effort into explaining why I feel that TSP kill was a cat mistake which should exonerate me. The alternative theory is completely stupid tinfoil junk. I genuinely hoped folks would see that. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened and my effort to get out of mislynch range backfired.

A vigilante is a good solution to the Jay problem — even if that means vigging Fayt after I’m lynched.
I just feel like if the whole "Iron Man Experiment" thing was real, you'd have been way more eager to tell us much sooner after Tony was NKed. Instead you waited to see if you really had to do it.

Jay, please directly address this point. Why did you wait to reveal the gambit?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:24 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:20 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:16 pm For all the “Jay put too much effort into the defense” shite, I can provide an explanation and see who even gives a damn.

We keep blowing leads this year, Syndicate civilians. Over and over. Scrimmage, Steely Dan, Shockheaded Peter, that one game where Quin (I think?) was the last mafia.

People have spent the whole game telling me how catty I am, with incredibly confident tones at times, and I am according a high-probability mislynch on any day for the remainder of the game. If that happens, we’re that much closer the blowing another lead. So yes, I put effort into explaining why I feel that TSP kill was a cat mistake which should exonerate me. The alternative theory is completely stupid tinfoil junk. I genuinely hoped folks would see that. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened and my effort to get out of mislynch range backfired.

A vigilante is a good solution to the Jay problem — even if that means vigging Fayt after I’m lynched.
I just feel like if the whole "Iron Man Experiment" thing was real, you'd have been way more eager to tell us much sooner after Tony was NKed. Instead you waited to see if you really had to do it.
Look at my very first post of the day phase. It’s right there.

No it isn't. Your first couple points teased it. You didn't want to actually reveal the whole thing. You wanted to breadcrumb and see if Mac/the rest of us could conclude that you were civ from it, and when we didn't you got frustrated and took a gamble.

Seriously, the teasing "hint-dropping" about whether or not you would have killed Tony just made the whole thing look worse on you.

Yeah, what Dom said. You spent quite a decent chunk of time right after the night post putting together all the speed analysis; if you could do that then you surely could have explained the iron man experiment around the same time as a parallel reaction to the other night death. If you were at your computer then, why was that not among your priorities at the time? You actually just contradicted yourself. You said you planted the hints because you weren't on your computer, but that was at the same time you were doing the speed posts, and you just said you were at your computer for those.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:36 pm
Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:34 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:33 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:27 pm Seriously, the teasing "hint-dropping" about whether or not you would have killed Tony just made the whole thing look worse on you.
And that’s my fault. I had just done something super cool, and I wanted others to pick up on it. At face value, pre-explanation, me killing TSP should at least be dubilus. So I hoped folks would dig into it. I poked Mac in particular because he’s the tinfoiliest name in my POE. I wanted to see him figure it out himself to show me that he truly gave a shit about my alignment.
why would fayt kill tsp?
She and speedchuck thought I had a reason for calling him King Green in all of my reads. Certainly speedchuck did.

Yeah so this is the crux of the I.M.E. -- your claim is that you successfully baited a mafia kill onto an inactive civilian. I actually find that pretty unlikely. It just happened to work? They decided to kill Tony over a more active civilian, merely because Big Master King Of Fuck Mountain took him out of the POE? On night two?! I find it much more likely that you cooked it all up in mafia chat. It may look like I'm wearing some crazy tinfoil, but I actually find it much easier to envision that universe than the universe where the mafia team just falls into your trap. For one thing, you're kind of insulting speed's intelligence. I'm sure he was in on it.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:39 pm
Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:37 pm ...why would they not just kill you?
I thought the cats might kill me! Were it only. There are other ways to deal with me. Also I’m mislynch bait.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:39 pm ....you're mislynch bait, but tsp isn't?

Lmfao. Got em

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:42 pm
Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:39 pm ....you're mislynch bait, but tsp isn't?
Hahahaha

This thing has gone FULL CIRCLE.

TSP definitely would have been mislynch bait were it not for my constant vouching. That’s my whole point.

Yeah but like.... nah. He'd be in the poe, sure, but as a later priority. Your ego is showing.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:41 pm Let me get this straight...

You're mislynch bait, so the baddies killed your civ read TSP who, by all accounts would normally mislynch bait, but wasn't because... you thought he was civvie and that apparently would have clout with us all despite you apparently being mislynch bait?

Yeah this lol.

I forgot that it's possible for me to mindmeld with Dom. It feels weird.

You're asking me to assume that the mafia team didn't think critically and fell into your trap. I think you're actually abusing your reputation here. But the flaw is your assumption that I would have fallen for the former assumption. I don't think speed would have taken your bait, therefore he was in on it with you in a grander scheme.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:58 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:56 pm You're asking me to assume that the mafia team didn't think critically and fell into your trap. I think you're actually abusing your reputation here. But the flaw is your assumption that I would have fallen for the former assumption. I don't think speed would have taken your bait, therefore he was in on it with you in a grander scheme.
speed is a great player whom I respect without limit. He fell for it.

You need therapy.

The sheer magnitude of egotism is astounding.

There's the "zen" again lmao. How many times have you said that this game? It may have been true earlier but certainly not now.

I am willing to Engage the Tie Protocol TM if I'm here at EOD and it's within my power to ensure. Only for fayt though, not drago

I assume LC will be voting for fayt to make that more likely. If he does and nobody else changes, I could make it 4-4.

Oh weird fayt is self voting

No vig hit??

[VOTE: fayt] aubergine

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:17 pm Can other civs like get heaps civvie and make themselves obvious to me so this isn't so hard please. You know, do civ things?

civ things = voting fayt imo. she's the clear choice based on both combined POEs and all the juicy reasons Jay had. I'm not saying we should just let jay have done our work for us, but I think she is the most logical conclusion here. I do need to reconsider michelle and maybe even drago though, in case a fayt flip doesn't pan out and we need to keep solving.

Yeah I can see your side of things. We can try Dom first if that's the consensus.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:40 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:38 pm Yeah I can see your side of things. We can try Dom first if that's the consensus.
Why shouldn't we try you? Your extreme eagerness to slam the lynch on Fayt despite the latest behavioural counter-evidence is concerning. And now you're all too willing to go along with a Dom lynch. The last Cat can easily support the lynch of any Dog.

I'm not sure about the "behavioural counter-evidence." I don't think fayt's behavior yesterday can really tell us anything concrete about her alignment. But you're right I should be re-assessing more. What do you think of Dom? Or Michelle? Or Drago given that odd vote yesterday?

Honestly I am putting a lot of stock into Jay's analysis since there were so many different indicators that pointed in fayt's direction, and I guess sort of because I feel like I owe it to Jay.

me @ the jay flip

Also tell me why it isn't you, LC. I haven't let go of that possibility.

My view of most likely cat to least likely cat:

Fayt > Dom > LC > Michelle > Dragomir > Nova > Mac

Differences pretty close though. Subject to change

I actually have one additional data point that indicates fayt but I can't say anything about it

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:30 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:50 pm Also tell me why it isn't you, LC. I haven't let go of that possibility.
I just think a read of my ISO is just really Civvish, and there's no way a reasonable player could possibly think I'm bad.

I feel the same about myself lol.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:33 pm So I go to look at Mac's ISO to see if I can see why he's your most trusted player. Then I see this ugliness:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:46 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:31 pm Speed is fine. Drago not so much.

Nova is already MVP. Mindmelds all over the place.

Michelle, TH, and rej fine. Jay, LC, Mac, Dom, fayt need more data. Did I miss anyone
All this is how I feel. Can we be friends?
You declaring rej and speed as "fine", and Mac just jumping right on that with support.

Whatever. Cool cool cool. I'll just keep reading.

Interesting catch

I actually also wondered if Mac deliberately planted the seed for the Jay lynch and I fell for it

I'm definitely not about to vote you lmao. I'm just trying to reassess because I'm not even that confident in my top town reads and that's no good at this stage.

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