The Syndicate

Eloh, forgive me for presuming. Keep doing what you're doing. And you too, how do you feel about Jack? I see he's green on your list, can you say why?

Epi, orange means scum reads, not neutral. He's saying not to take his scum reads as gospel if he dies and flips civ.

I maintain that Dom probably completely forgot about the game. Wouldn't be the first time.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:29 pm Dom had this same level of participation 2 years ago too. It's actually kind of weird. He's like a cryptid.

No way, he used to be a hugely active player... he would do like big case posts and everything. I think he's just been way busier IRL lately

What the hell?!??!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:23 am You can't kill a mountain. They're not even alive.

As my grandfather used to sing to the tune of "The Sound of Music," "The hiiiills are aliiiiive, and the mountains are dead!!"

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:55 am Options:

Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.

One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.

Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.

None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.

I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?

Hmm, okay, I buy this conclusion.

I also really like Sloonei's takedown of Bob. Good work.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:56 am Ok it was Jack and Sloonei tied with 5. I have been operating under the assumption that Nutella has a vote worth two based upon events from Day 1. If this is true, then Jack would actually have had six to Sloonei's five. This would then mean that either Jack is the role that survives its first death, he could be one of the two secret roles which we don't know the powers for, or he was protected by the Sutter Buttes and had his vote decreased by one, making it a tie that swung to Sloonei who then did not die.

I find it difficult to get past Sloonei seeming to think it was a waste of time to lynch him. His phrasing read to me like a hint at what would happen. I'll pull some quotes for examples.

This lynch leaves me with a distinctly bad impression of Jack. But there are two questions I need to have answered because they could be hidden factors at play if I have misunderstood them.

Marmot: Two questions. 1. When you say "Aconcagua will survive the first attempt on its life." does this apply to either lynch or NK, whichever comes first? Or does this only apply to NK?

2. If a lynch save has been used how will it be written?

These answers can impact my view of this latest non death.

Now I am off to pull the relevant Sloonei statements... then going to sleep.

OK yeah I missed how the Sutter Buttes thing works. This makes sense.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:01 am
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:56 am Ok it was Jack and Sloonei tied with 5. I have been operating under the assumption that Nutella has a vote worth two based upon events from Day 1. If this is true, then Jack would actually have had six to Sloonei's five. This would then mean that either Jack is the role that survives its first death, he could be one of the two secret roles which we don't know the powers for, or he was protected by the Sutter Buttes and had his vote decreased by one, making it a tie that swung to Sloonei who then did not die.

I find it difficult to get past Sloonei seeming to think it was a waste of time to lynch him. His phrasing read to me like a hint at what would happen. I'll pull some quotes for examples.

This lynch leaves me with a distinctly bad impression of Jack. But there are two questions I need to have answered because they could be hidden factors at play if I have misunderstood them.

Marmot: Two questions. 1. When you say "Aconcagua will survive the first attempt on its life." does this apply to either lynch or NK, whichever comes first? Or does this only apply to NK?

2. If a lynch save has been used how will it be written?

These answers can impact my view of this latest non death.

Now I am off to pull the relevant Sloonei statements... then going to sleep.
Cristobal Colon (which I somehow missed in my tally of how no one got lynched) may have had to send in a lynch-stop without knowing which of the players in the "tie" were going to be lynched. It's conceivable that Civ Sloonei just saved baddie Jack, or vice-versa.

Also this.

So yeah I'm back to thinking Jack is bad news.

Hey, I expressed a gut bad read of you first. And I outlined some more reasoning behind my suspicion back on Day 1. Also, Kyle made a good point about you that you still have not answered.

Since you will undoubtedly now ask me to link you those posts instead of going and finding them yourself:

Here is where I explained my suspicion of you a bit more -- I'll concede that the "slip" things were bad reasons but the other stuff still stands. The weird sprityo thing from the very beginning (and now that I also suspect sprityo, hmm....), your contributions to the Epi discussion and strange notions about me, and in general your mode of interaction with the thread on day 1. I could find some more stuff from day 2 to add to this but I don't have time right now.

Here is the post by Kyle that you have ignored. He makes a good point here that you did not seem to have a townie approach.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:50 am True there might be other vote things going on, but I feel like neither Jack nor sloonie would make sense for the mafia team to target with their minus 1. Unless we're all way off with mafia members.

I don't understand what you mean by this. Some of us think that Jack could well be a mafia member who was protected by Sutter Buttes. Why are you discounting this possibility out of hand?

Jack you ignored the part about the Epi discussion. I still don't like how you looked there.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:40 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:09 pm
sig wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:50 am True there might be other vote things going on, but I feel like neither Jack nor sloonie would make sense for the mafia team to target with their minus 1. Unless we're all way off with mafia members.

I don't understand what you mean by this. Some of us think that Jack could well be a mafia member who was protected by Sutter Buttes. Why are you discounting this possibility out of hand?
Can you explain how this transpired given the result?

I mean it's a night power, right? So the scum team anticipated jack getting some votes and gave him minus one. He would have been one vote ahead of sloonei but this would bring it back to a tie, which was randomly flipped to sloonei who is one of the civ roles who would survive the lynch.

You're right Sloonei, my thoughts didn't really change much on Jack in that time. Jay pointed out one small thing that made Jack look good in his eyes, and I liked his reasoning, but it was just based on one little thing and it was not nearly a strong enough "only town would do this" in my mind to outweigh the bad vibes I've gotten from the rest of Jack's posts throughout the game. So yeah, I said I'd have an open mind, but on day 2 he continued to look bad to me, and when the lynch ended up between you and him it was no question that my vote was going to stay on him. Especially after his little back-and-forth with Kyle; I think he came out of that looking worse than before.

As a side note, I feel like both you and Jack are misinterpreting/misrepresenting the balance of my reasons for suspecting him -- the thing about his misguided meta-read of me was really not a significant reason at all. I understand that he has an unusual sample to draw from and I was just pointing out that he doesn't have an entirely representative view of my usual meta (although since it is a recent sample perhaps his perspective reflects a trend in my evolving style, which is interesting to note and may mean his perspective on me is actually quite valuable going forward). Anyway, I suppose I mentioned his inaccurate read of me in my D1 post about him, but I believe it was coming from an honest place given his experience playing with me, and in general as with most of my reasons for suspecting him, it was not so much what he said but how he said it in the context of the rest of his posts.

My suspicion of him on day 1 was largely instinct-based; I decided that I was getting a disingenuous vibe from nearly all of his content and got the sense that he was trying his best to look helpful while not actually putting a lot of effort or motivation behind his responses to thread discussion (mainly the Epi stuff). On day 2 this continued; while I briefly hoped to give him a chance to improve my read of him, he mostly just made it worse. Now with the lynch shenanigans, I have reason to believe my/daisy's theory about Sutter Buttes is one of the most likely explanations and that he is bad; however, I recognize that there are also some distinct possibilities involving him being town, and determining that is just a bit too messy right now so I'm waffling on whether I want to try to lynch him again tomorrow or not in case I am wrong. I would also be 100% in favor of lynching sprityo, and that may be a safer option given the confusion surrounding the no-lynch.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:05 pm I don't have a strategy for indie hunting, but if I was going to pick a player who seems like they could be playing an independent game, I'd choose nutella.

Huh, why?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:54 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:42 pmWho do you suspect now? Why has your view of Jack changed?
I believe Jack to be civ because he implied that he knew he would survive the lynch. I think someone brought up some discrepancies in his behavior leading up to it that might imply that that wasn't the case so I want to make sure to look through that timeframe again myself.

I mean, Sloonei seemed confident he would survive, which fits with Aconcagua or Cristobal Colon. Jack said "barring vote shenanigans" which would fit if he was protected by Sutter Buttes (but then would he say that openly if so?) but would also fit if he was Chimborazo and stole the double vote, which I could totally believe..... hmm actually now that I think about it that's probably more likely than my Sutter Buttes + random tie theory (though both theories rely on Sloonei being Aconcagua or Colon). Auugghh, now it feels like it's almost 50/50 mechanically whether Jack is town or scum, it's frustrating...

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:28 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:22 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:05 pm I don't have a strategy for indie hunting, but if I was going to pick a player who seems like they could be playing an independent game, I'd choose nutella.
Huh, why?
Your "I don't give a hoot" attitude, and the whole lynch survival on Day 1 thing. We don't know what Olympus Mons can do, but maybe they have something that would protect them in a situation like that.

I had the "I don't give a hoot" attitude on day 1 mostly because I was lazy and felt like playing a low-effort fast-and-loose game, but by night 1 I started to play a lot more seriously and have been since then. I feel like I put in a normal amount of effort on day 2.

My survival was already explained, assuming you believe that it was a tie, which it was.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:35 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:15 pm You're right Sloonei, my thoughts didn't really change much on Jack in that time. Jay pointed out one small thing that made Jack look good in his eyes, and I liked his reasoning, but it was just based on one little thing and it was not nearly a strong enough "only town would do this" in my mind to outweigh the bad vibes I've gotten from the rest of Jack's posts throughout the game. So yeah, I said I'd have an open mind, but on day 2 he continued to look bad to me, and when the lynch ended up between you and him it was no question that my vote was going to stay on him. Especially after his little back-and-forth with Kyle; I think he came out of that looking worse than before.

As a side note, I feel like both you and Jack are misinterpreting/misrepresenting the balance of my reasons for suspecting him -- the thing about his misguided meta-read of me was really not a significant reason at all. I understand that he has an unusual sample to draw from and I was just pointing out that he doesn't have an entirely representative view of my usual meta (although since it is a recent sample perhaps his perspective reflects a trend in my evolving style, which is interesting to note and may mean his perspective on me is actually quite valuable going forward). Anyway, I suppose I mentioned his inaccurate read of me in my D1 post about him, but I believe it was coming from an honest place given his experience playing with me, and in general as with most of my reasons for suspecting him, it was not so much what he said but how he said it in the context of the rest of his posts.

My suspicion of him on day 1 was largely instinct-based; I decided that I was getting a disingenuous vibe from nearly all of his content and got the sense that he was trying his best to look helpful while not actually putting a lot of effort or motivation behind his responses to thread discussion (mainly the Epi stuff). On day 2 this continued; while I briefly hoped to give him a chance to improve my read of him, he mostly just made it worse. Now with the lynch shenanigans, I have reason to believe my/daisy's theory about Sutter Buttes is one of the most likely explanations and that he is bad; however, I recognize that there are also some distinct possibilities involving him being town, and determining that is just a bit too messy right now so I'm waffling on whether I want to try to lynch him again tomorrow or not in case I am wrong. I would also be 100% in favor of lynching sprityo, and that may be a safer option given the confusion surrounding the no-lynch.
So you feel like Jack's meta read of you on Day 1 came from an honest place, but his overall body of work does not?

Yes. In that I believe he genuinely believed what he said about my meta, although obviously if he is bad he was making a false accusation since he would know I wasn't bad, but it was based on premises that were sound/convincing from his perspective.

If I survive the night (

) and find the time, I will ISO Cbob and determine how I feel -- he's sort of blended in for most of the game and has that problem of seeming active but still quite forgettable (I really didn't notice him/remember he was there until the end of day 2 with the sloonei stuff), so that's really not a good look, though I still think I generally got a slightly more civ vibe from him than from some others. I did like Sloonei's case, so I'm looking forward to seeing what else I find in his iso. I can be very guilty of confirmation bias when iso-ing though, so I'll try to be open-minded and look for both town tells and scum tells.

Not doing any hunting? I'm doing about as much as I normally do -- a few ISOs when I have the time, my best shots at vote/EOD analysis...
And I conceded that the "slip" thing was a bad reason and it has never been one of my main reasons. I have explained my suspicion of you multiple times now. I've seen your responses, but my read of your style so far this game is still bad. I'm probably backing off of you for now because I think the likelihood you are Chimborazo is fairly high and I'll be happy to lynch sprityo or possibly cbob instead, but as I said there's about an equal possibility you are bad.

huh.... interesting. I was hoping for a Dom replacement.

I gave cbob's iso a skim and honestly his style looks pretty town to me. Perhaps Sloonei's right and bob is just good at looking civ in early game, or perhaps Sloonei's wrong. I'm less willing to vote for bob today than I was before. Unfortunately my other top candidate was sprityo and I'd feel bad lynching dunya right after she came in and seems to be doing a good job-- though I'm definitely not giving her a full pass because she could easily have replaced into a scum role and still put on a convincing catch-up face. Others have brought up suspicions of speedchuck, and I haven't looked into him much so I'll do that next. Kyle's point on mesk is also worth considering, though part of it may just be that she's overwhelmed by unfamiliar players and a lot of posts and she probably wouldn't act the same in her first game here as she would in a game on her home site. I get the sense she hasn't been here in a while and hasn't really been keeping up with this game, but I could see that as either town or scum behavior in her case.

Linki- yeah.... well what if she and Dom are both scum who forgot about the game lmao

though as I said before, I think lone townies are much more likely to forget to check in or become uninvested, and as someone else said today it's quite unlikely that the whole scum team missed sending in a kill on the five-day night

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:35 pm Yeah fuck it.

JACKOFHEARTS2005
NUTELLA
DRWILGY

Town (bc mechanical theories/have role in mind for him, otherwise would read scum)
Town
...Ttoowwwnn???

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:38 pm SPRITYO/DUNYA
SIG
EPIGNOSIS

Scum
Scum
Town... or indie

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:40 pm SLOONEI
DRAGON D. LUFFY
COLONIALBOB

Town
Town
Town

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:42 pm MOVINGPICTURES07/JAGGEDJIMMYJAY
LONG CON
MESK514

Town
Scum... or indie
Town

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:45 pm INSERTNAMEHERE/GLORFINDEL
SPACEDAISY
DOM

....wait what. is that a player in the game or are you fucking with me *checks player list* what the hell? has inh posted at all did I entirely miss this?!
Town
....Town

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:47 pm ELOHCIN
KYLEMII
SPEEDCHUCK
QUIN

Eh... Town
Town
...Town for the sake of the exercise but I'm about to look at his iso
Scum

aw I was too late

I'm kind of lost as to who to vote for today. Dunya's scum-team-size error seemed genuine and nearly clears her in my mind. Speedchuck looks pretty town to me, as does colonialbob, but if something really strong comes up against one of them I could be convinced. I could also be convinced to vote for JJJ. Something feels... not quite right about him. My top suspect is honestly probably still Quin, but nobody seems to agree with me there so a vote on him would probably be a waste today unless anyone else decides to see what I see. I suppose I could vote for Mesk.

linki Epi that is good thinking.... though it would be unusual for the scum kill to be dependent on a single role to send in the pm. usually other team members are allowed to send team actions (I think I have seen it the former way before, but not for a looooong time)

Hey sorry I haven't been around for most of the discussion. Been periodically catching up while doing other stuff. I'm cool with the Dom lynch but since there's already a comfortable lead there I'm tempted to put a symbolic vote somewhere, probably Jay at this point tbh.

Oh god I do not want to be the deciding vote here. I'm feeling waffly on both.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:22 am Yeah, the Dom lynch will give zero info. I'll go Mesk.

*vote Mesk*

Somewhat fair point, although mesk gives barely any more... if she flips town though I'm looking at Jay/Dom w/w

oh yeah and quin of course hahah

being forced to decide this tie is making me anxious i might just not do it

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:26 am
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:25 am oh yeah and quin of course hahah
I'm confirmed town.

excuse you??

also if LC and Epi argue about the mass effect indie role bullshit ever again i will burn this website to the ground

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:27 am actually nah, my most confident read is jay. Let's lynch him.

okay I'm in

'ella ella ey ey ey (why did you call me ella, ella, ella, ey ey ey?)

Jay I know how much you treasure your perfect mafia strategic theory talk but sometimes I don't need a thorough convincing case to catch scum tbh

come on LC (or kyle or quin or wilgy) join usss

Jay is so bad. And Dom is probably on his team.

Sloonei my good fellow what on earth possessed you to change your vote

In case I am NKed tonight:
Jay
Quin
Dom/malakim

should be the next three lynches. Not sure who the fourth is. I'd maybe consider Kyle again tbh... Or INH or sig. But I am very confident that the three I listed are bad.

I don't mean to imply like info-level confident for the record. I just know it in my soul.

Technically in Italian "lasagne" is plural and "lasagna" is singular. Since a typical dish of lasagne is made up of multiple pieces of lasagna (the flat pieces of pasta themselves) it makes sense to use the plural. But "lasagna" is a generally acceptable use in English.

Malakim, sorry, but I strongly believe Dom is bad because of how the lynch went down yesterday. Nothing to do with your replacement.

Good philosophy. "Sometimes a hypocrite is nothing more than a man in the process of changing."

Nooo daisy

Looks like I was probably correct about her role.

Voting jay.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:45 pm Jay's iso case posts read sincere to me.

I must say I strongly disagree. They look so, so fake to me. Either way, they will be interesting to consider once we know his alignment.

Eloh I've found it odd that most of your suspects throughout the game have been the most common town reads. And you seem to be completely ignoring the generally accepted analyses that have more or less confirmed both Sloonei and myself as town.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:30 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:20 am
Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:45 pm Jay's iso case posts read sincere to me.
I must say I strongly disagree. They look so, so fake to me. Either way, they will be interesting to consider once we know his alignment.
What would his motivation for making them would be as a mafio?

It's obvious, come on. Several reasons. First of all, he really has no choice at this point since it's his last chance to appear town and convince us that he's his normal supertown self by doing ISOs and scumhunting. Of course he's doing this now. Second, if he's scum I would bet that he is using some sort of wifom trickery/manipulating his ISOs so that when he flips bad we'll be thrown off by his "reads" and not know which ones were real -- so he might be bussing teammates, or defending them, or otherwise completely throwing us off the trail in providing these reads.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] how are you deciding who to ISO? So far you've done bob, wilgy, malakim, and speedchuck. Those seem kind of random. What is your reasoning for choosing them?

What the heck is going on here

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] didn't you say you're voting for Jay? It doesn't look like you've voted in the poll

Thanks for doing all that, Sloonei. I agree with a lot of your assessment, especially regarding the wifom factory ISOs. I'd be willing to look into a cbob lynch, or possibly LC. Wilgy, Sig, and Malakim are also somewhere on the table for me, as is Quin still. I feel mostly good about speedchuck but again, wifom factory.

Yeah looking again at Jay's ISO of Quin, I'm super wary of the possibility of their scheming buddy status, but that's kind of in the realm of tinfoil (can I get a wifom deluxe with cheese, hold the iocane). Jay's ISO came across as pretty neutral but still ending in a civ read of Quin, and I just have to wonder... I'm more hesitant to go after Quin right away, but maybe that's what they wanted?

Aaaa well cbob definitely seems like the safer bet right now.

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