The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:11 am
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:08 am Am I nuts or is "Maybe the guys who are flipping bad are actually good" Not a civilian-minded conspiracy theory? What is even the point here? How has this become the hot topic of the day?
Since when do we have two dead Mafia on day 3 with zero having been lynched? It's like a metaphor for society in general right now.

Would a scum mac be so bold as to voice his displeasure over the vig kills in the thread?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:20 pm I'm going to be unavailable during the early portion of this afternoon. I might have a brief window to visit in a few hours. I endorse a sprityo lynch.

I endorse a Sprityo VIG.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:28 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:30 am
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:07 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:07 pm Maybe he wants the perks that come with being a Confirmed Civ. He could reasonably expect protection from kills. I don't know, it's pretty weird. I'm sure the Phoenix Down owner has a plan, no need to "lynch a Civ" to get a good target. Maybe he's a baddie with the ability to appear Civ upon their lynch. Get lynched - look Civ - use up rez - PROFIT!!!
Bingo. If I die then you know I’m a civ and if I come back, that’s good. Is this hard to understand?
Yeah, because the rezzes have been so available and stuff so far. Let's totally waste a lynch on you and hope that third night's the charm.
What can I say, I’m a selfish guy.

[VOTE: That is not the only problem with this.] aubergine

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:33 pm If I am going to get lynched by the dumbest wagon ever in my time of playing Mafia then at least please answer this q before I go join my great friend Turbup Head in the, uhh, Mirror of Erised? I don’t fucking know you tell me.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:47 pm Hypothetically assuming I used a Niffler, is it pro-town to share the results? Please weigh in on this and thank you.

I don't think it would be pro-town. If anything it would just put more pressure on to lynch/kill people in that house (or not).

Sounds like a Yun Qui situation waiting to happen.

Why don't we talk, Colin? I want to pick someone's head, and you're the only person around.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:39 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:38 pm Why don't we talk, Colin? I want to pick someone's head, and you're the only person around.
Pick away

Firgive me if I missed it, but who are your townlocks? Why?

What's off about Jack?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:49 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:50 am @nutella Have you had a scum game more recent than Fire Emblem?
@Glorfindel I'd like to see a scum game of yours. Don't really care who points me to it.

Currently leaning more town on Nutella than before, based on the past few pages of content.
No I'm pretty sure that was the last one.

Thanks. That was a good game.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:49 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:07 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:07 pm Maybe he wants the perks that come with being a Confirmed Civ. He could reasonably expect protection from kills. I don't know, it's pretty weird. I'm sure the Phoenix Down owner has a plan, no need to "lynch a Civ" to get a good target. Maybe he's a baddie with the ability to appear Civ upon their lynch. Get lynched - look Civ - use up rez - PROFIT!!!
Bingo. If I die then you know I’m a civ and if I come back, that’s good. Is this hard to understand?
Did you... did you misread LC's post? O.o

I think he's agreeing and then directing his question at the naysayers.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:48 pm Jack, somebody made a case on him that I liked a lot. LC? I’d have to go back.

Please find it. Jack hasn't been the presence I'd expect from him. I want to see what you saw.

Not sure whether the Colin lynch is a plot to kill all Griffindors or an actual case. Is there anything to it other than the silly rez stuff?

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:55 pm Long Con:

Spoiler: show
D1 - Fun, Goofy, Aloofy. Some mechanics talk, Defensive about his mechanics talk, Defends Owner over the DH/DA distinction saying he too mixed them up. Reads TH/Luna as W/W. Votes TH, Looking for Hallows.

D2 - Uses Nova's Death to ping Jay immediately. Agrees w/ Jay about Bullz nova vote. Big post detailing thoughts on Luna. Defends Owner again, but agrees that Epi is a null read.

This jumps out at me. Here LC is talking to Kara about Kara's Day 1 Owner suspicion(s) but lack of an Owner vote:

If Owner turns up scum, then that looks bad on you: to say she really looks like scum, but stop short of casting a clinching vote for an Owner lynch.
This quote here really gets my dogs barking. Setting up a patsy for "If Owner [ever] flips scum" combined with LC's defending Owner a few times already...

How strong does your case feel if Slowner is town?

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:21 pm btw I just skimmed through Jack's ISO and I don't think I could name a single stance he took during all of Day 1

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:23 pm he posts much more on day 2 but most of it is still relatively passive/observation rather than engaging with anyone past surface level. feels like he's afraid to get his hands dirty

Posting this for myself.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:20 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:16 pm
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:55 pm Long Con:

Spoiler: show
D1 - Fun, Goofy, Aloofy. Some mechanics talk, Defensive about his mechanics talk, Defends Owner over the DH/DA distinction saying he too mixed them up. Reads TH/Luna as W/W. Votes TH, Looking for Hallows.

D2 - Uses Nova's Death to ping Jay immediately. Agrees w/ Jay about Bullz nova vote. Big post detailing thoughts on Luna. Defends Owner again, but agrees that Epi is a null read.

This jumps out at me. Here LC is talking to Kara about Kara's Day 1 Owner suspicion(s) but lack of an Owner vote:

If Owner turns up scum, then that looks bad on you: to say she really looks like scum, but stop short of casting a clinching vote for an Owner lynch.
This quote here really gets my dogs barking. Setting up a patsy for "If Owner [ever] flips scum" combined with LC's defending Owner a few times already...

How strong does your case feel if Slowner is town?
Well considering his defense of Owner, and his jumping on Kara with the "if Owner is scum" thing and his thought that Sloonei townslipped, if you take all those away I still don't like his

1) Hunting for Hallows/TH vote
2) Backing off Luna based on Jay/Nut
3) His flip on Timmer with the Adolf tell or w/e that he backed away from pretty quckly felt like he was working a bit too hard to make something click there.

So I'd say I feel (right now, all things included) 65-70% confident in the LC case, but take the Owner stuff out and I'm somewhere in the range of 55-60%

#1 is something Jack and Speed 1.0 both did to some extent. One of them, at least, was town.
I don't know much about #2. #3 is a fair point, I think.

You said earlier you'd look into Jack today as well. I'm curious about that.

I mean, you had 6 people on your list and I'm not asking about all of them.

Just one more.

Thanks.

If I recall correctly, Slowner has good INH interactions and a very interesting EOD1 vs TH. She refused to vote in self-preservation.

While I (of course) think those D1 cases were bogus, I thought the same thing in Firefly and she was town. Owner scumhunts differently than I'm accustomed to, but IDK if that means she was bad.

I'd like those voting for her to address the EOD and/or those INH-interactions.

linki:

Lunalee wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:55 pm He ignored the suggestion for everyone to post "I am town" for a truth checker to have more to work with.
He replied with this sad, emotional plea to Colin's suggestion that we ask Glorf if he's bad:
Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:26 am
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:08 pm So who’s going to ask Glorfindel if he’s bad?
To be honest, this whole mess had completely slipped my mind. It’s hard for me to know what to do here - do I refuse to answer and get lynched by a rabid Town or answer it and put a target on my back Night 1? Either way, I guess it suggests a short stay for me this game...
Reason I'm okay with pushing a Glorf lynch is because if he is town, he won't let us lynch him without saying so.

Ew no.

It kinda ruins the game for Glorf to town-claim or not town-claim. It's a dick move by all accounts, and it's been encountered in several games.

We aren't pushing Glorf into claiming. Leave that out of any cases you make.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:55 pm
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:12 pm Dragon D. Luffy Are you going to reassign the houses like Daisy reassigned the ships once a house no longer has enough members to be competitive in the Cup?
That won't be necessary, house points are readjusted when their members die.

Like, right now Gryffindor members get double points since half their players are dead.

*lone house member votes to lynch mafia, gets an obscene number of points*

Yep this is Harry Potter alright

Lunalee wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:58 pm Claiming argument aside, what has Glorf done to convince you he's town?

Nothing really.

I don't care if you make a Glorf case. He doesn't look great. Just leave out the claiming bit.

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:10 pm I don't trust any of the four voters for Colin.

Their judgement or alignment?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:39 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:36 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:33 pm I trust Long Con less than I did when the day began. Whatever doubts I have stem from here. Someone argue with those points while I am in class.
But you said nice things about me in that post.
Right. Those are doubts about lynching you.

Those are pretty good doubts though

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:38 pm And it’s a nice easy pitch right over the plate....

Spoiler: show
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:43 am Here's how it went down from my perspective, one mental state at a time.

1. Bullzeye voted for nova.
2. Timmer and a few others found Bullzeye's vote extremely suspicious.
3. Nova was killed and flipped bad.
4. Some people (myself included) suspect Bullzeye even more, thinking that he placed a vote on a teammate.
5. Timmer comes out with a 180 on Bullzeye, calling him his top civ read after the events of the night but not due to a cop check.
6. I look at the list of abilities to see what might explain this that's not cop-ish per se. I notice the one that tracks which player a player targeted, and it occurs to me that perhaps Bullzeye vigged nova since he presumably suspected him, and perhaps timmer tracked Bullzeye since he suspected him, and saw that he targeted nova, and is now townclearing Bullzeye as the vig.
7. I accept this and decide to townread both bullzeye and timmer based on this interpretation.
8. The topic comes up again and Jay questions how timmer could know anything and says that he blocked timmer.
9. I say "wouldn't he not have gotten a result at all if he were blocked?"
10. That turns out to be moot as timmer admits that it was not based on anything he did at all, it was just based on something that happened (i.e. nova's death).
11. I figure that timmer had just made an educated guess that bullzeye vigged nova and decided to townclear him. Since it made so much sense to me when I was investigating back when I thought timmer actually knew something, I figured that I still believed it made sense even though it turned out timmer didn't actually know, and I continued to agree with timmer/believe that bullzeye killed nova.
12. For a while I still figured that this looked good for timmer. I no longer feel like I have much justification for that; he could easily have scum motivation for pulling his 180 on bullzeye in the way that he did.
So by “nobody refuted” you mean “Timmer directly refuted this idea I came up with in my head that nobody else was aware of?”

Nutella in this game has made brazen jumps in logic, weird accusations, waffles with maple bacon, and been weirdly aggro about it the whole time.
Do you associate that with a town or mafia strategy?
Do you associate that with a town or mafia nutella?

I was reading her as scum until I stopped and thought about it (and skimmed some of Fire Emblem).

This is Yun Qui nutella but without the unbreakable townread on anyone. Is it not?

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:43 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:42 pm This is Yun Qui nutella but without the unbreakable townread on anyone. Is it not?
Missed that game, what does that mean about her?

I specifically remember Nutella being super aggressive in that game and waffling on and off whether she thought I was scum. I was not alone in that position, I don't think.

She also read TH as good no matter what even when he was bad. She picked out the rest of the scum team pretty well in late game.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:44 pm Tell me about FE Nutella.

I'll get you some, hold up.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:44 pm Tell me about FE Nutella.

Her ISO from that game.

Actually why don't you give me a skim tone read, just over a page or so. Validate me. I just thought of something I want to add, but I want thoughts on this really quick before I mention it.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:49 pm speedchuck

Talk to me about LC while you’re at it.

That's not exactly a solo moi suspicion. Others have stated it first, and I'm a caboose on this train.

After JJJ brought up the INH-vote-and-salad stuff I'm looking to move.

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:01 pm [VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.

I was doubting Owner at the time, and buying some of the suspicions on LC/Glorf/Owner/Jack that have been made on the page prior to this vote.

Owner was linked to LC, but I thought Owner more likely town than LC. I threw a vote down to unravel that puzzle. Both have gone up in my estimation since then, as I looked back to see why I townread Owner and JJJ brought up LC things.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:58 pm Laprityo

It's LIT YO

[mention]nutella[/mention] Why did you vote JJJ?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:10 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:05 pm Jackofhearts2005

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:01 pm [VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.
I was doubting Owner at the time, and buying some of the suspicions on LC/Glorf/Owner/Jack that have been made on the page prior to this vote.

Owner was linked to LC, but I thought Owner more likely town than LC. I threw a vote down to unravel that puzzle. Both have gone up in my estimation since then, as I looked back to see why I townread Owner and JJJ brought up LC things.
Can you be more specific about the suspicions you agreed with?

I'm trying to move on. Go back and read the stuff. I replied to DH and told him what I agreed with and disagreed with even.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:06 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:51 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:44 pm Tell me about FE Nutella.
Her ISO from that game.

Actually why don't you give me a skim tone read, just over a page or so. Validate me. I just thought of something I want to add, but I want thoughts on this really quick before I mention it.
I read page 1 and page 5 and I got nothing.

Def not so jumpy tho.

It's the language used. A lot more "idk" and "I think" and such. Much less aggressive than in this game.

Plus this:

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:15 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:07 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:05 am I like nutella here and now, but I'm approaching Day 3 as if it's Day 1. Days 1 & 2 are a blind spot to me.
I've had her as one of my bigger civilian reads for much of the game, so now there's a clash of face-value appearance and interactive data. I feel pretty comfortable turning on her though, because the meta on which she thrives is not one which demands much challenge in mimicry. Change your mind a lot and be curt in your reads.
I have the 3rd highest post count. you of all people should realize that I would not be capable of that as scum. and no, I'm not dunya-ing you. I've posted with a degree of carefree abandon that I can't imagine approaching if I were bad.

I don't like this JJJ read much, and Nutella's response rings true.
FE nutella (evil) - 40 posts per day/night phase.
HW nutella - 80 posts per day/night phase (even though night 3 hasn't started, so it's really 2.5 phases)

And nutella's posts are pretty content-laced in this game.

... lol FE didn't have night posts.
It's still a relevant point, just not quite as strong.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:15 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:07 pm @nutella Why did you vote JJJ?
I haven't liked his behavior this phase. He's mostly gone on about lynching sprityo for not participating and only now deciding to change his tune on LC as a more present and popular suspect. This combined with my earlier criticism/skepticism of his interactive read results makes me feel fishy things about him.

What do you think of his early INH interactions? Planned distance/bus?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:34 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:21 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:15 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:07 pm @nutella Why did you vote JJJ?
I haven't liked his behavior this phase. He's mostly gone on about lynching sprityo for not participating and only now deciding to change his tune on LC as a more present and popular suspect. This combined with my earlier criticism/skepticism of his interactive read results makes me feel fishy things about him.
What do you think of his early INH interactions? Planned distance/bus?
Could be. I don't have strong arguments either way but I don't doubt that he's capable of that.

If you don't have arguments then why vote there?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:44 pm Today has been a rather crappy day phase in general.

I thought pooping on the town effort was a scumtell or something.

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

I've been POEing out my day. Here's what I have:

Do not lynch:
Timmer
karavalenge
Lunalee
poutanko
Sloonei
nutella
ColinIsCool
Long Con

Whatever mate:
DharmaHelper
JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis
Glorfindel
MacDougall
Quin
Jackofhearts2005
sprityo

Didn't have enough time to iron everyone out, since I was out of town all yesterday. It's a good start, though.

I'll be in and out. JJJ is an interesting lynch option, and I want to see what comes of it. Sprityo's lynch wouldn't be the worst thing ever. Jury's out on Jack and Glorf, I've still for to work on those two.

I townread Mac except for the whole anti-town-vig-scum-hogwash. Need to figure out what to do with that.

linki: Oh okay I might join you hmmm

Yeah sure [VOTE: Glorf] aubergine

The only reason not to do it is because I suspect Jack some, and there's no way this is a bus.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:15 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:13 pm Yeah sure [VOTE: Glorf] aubergine

The only reason not to do it is because I suspect Jack some, and there's no way this is a bus.
You did that just to make a three-way tie, didn't you?

No. I actually prefer if there was not a three way tie.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:21 pm Mmm I don't even know who I'd pick out of Colin, glorf, and LC. Lynch em all I say.

This one.

Ooh, that's a hard NO U from left field! Let's see how that turns out.

Who just buffed the LC wagon?

I t w a s t i m m e r

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:31 pm
Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:31 pm If I get lynched today I am out of this game for good so I’m warning you in advance - reviving me will be a complete and utter waste of time so don’t bother. Just sayin’...

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:34 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:31 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:31 pm
Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:31 pm If I get lynched today I am out of this game for good so I’m warning you in advance - reviving me will be a complete and utter waste of time so don’t bother. Just sayin’...

We know Glorf means it. If he's mafia, he would clearly return for the sake of his team.

What are you going to do about it?

I have no idea what that post even means.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:39 pm There's no reason for Glorf to threaten to bail on the game if he's being correctly lynched, and there's no reason for mafia Glorf to refuse resurrection.

We know Glorf doesn't fudge shit. He says what he believes in his heart.

speed and nutella are bad.

There being no reason for a post does NOT make it 'false'. Are you telling me that Glorf can't even make a TRUTHFUL post that would mislead? Because I have no experience with that.

JJJ and Glorf are not scum together BTW. Already confirmed that.

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:43 pm No one is more Town than you - Mafia 101 by 3J

Stop making me reconsider reconsidering.

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

JJJ is probably scum. Glorf is not. JJJ knows glorf better than me. He's defending Glorf for townie points or from genuineness, not to decieve. Either way, Glorf has to be town.

JJJ and glorf are NOOOOT W/W. Impossible. I promise.

[VOTE: glorf] aubergine
[VOTE: Long con] aubergine

Glorf said he BELIEVES JJJ is town, early on.

If they were mafia together, this would be false. No W/W. Which means JJJ is either buddying or genuine (or really stupid, but he's played with glorf more than us). Either way, gotta listen.

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