The Syndicate

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:12 pm Ok so i knew my target was a wolf cuz i watched the movie after rand LMAO to know wtf this robin girl was and she’s a wolf walker in the movie

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:12 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:01 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:00 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:41 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:37 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:52 pm but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

you mean 'our wincon?'

ew wilgy stop doing this lol martin's post already gave me the ick as it was

If it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck

Are you implying martin is

Isn't that obvious?

Martin responded to it as if it was. Martin seemingly tr'd me, that being the case, his win con should be out win con.

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:49 pm Baker and delta setting up Porscha…hmmmmm

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:28 pm yeah thats fair

my issue with the slot is how Abi behaved on D1 and I remember having a difficult time townreading them based on the lack of WIM. it was a poor d1 for good old zenon

[VOTE: Porscha] aubergine

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:04 pm LOL yea im just here with

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:14 pm [VOTE: PORSCHA] aubergine

for now while I sort through things

Stick 3P, dont think I'd flip Scotty/Robyn/Baker here - can get into those

Of the remaining, I'd rather go Porscha, maybe Martin, not 100% on Wilgy still so ?_?

Still going through why I'm reading people a certain way but eh

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:08 pm Further @Porscha I don't think you are interacting with me in bad faith. I think you are interacting with me in a limited capacity that ignores my other voicing in the game.

If you don't have time to backread, that's fine, but you must acknowledge that my interactions with Baker aren't the only part of my gameplay and reading me on such is inaccurate to do so as town and somewhat malicious to do as wolf. Both of these things I'll pick up on and respond to naturally.

I don't think it's an overreaction. Town is in a really shitty spot and if I have to pick between you or another low poster correctly, I'm going to do so with as much push as possible to get the correct answer.

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:37 pm ill give the greenlight on a porscha yeet ig, my abbi townread was 100% fabricated

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:00 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:41 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:37 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:52 pm but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

you mean 'our wincon?'

ew wilgy stop doing this lol martin's post already gave me the ick as it was

If it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:43 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:46 pm pretty funny of baker to come in here and be play an uno reverse card on wilgy cuz now I don't really believe in the w/w world of them either lol. just think there is no way they are w/w and baker comes in to specifically bring it up and throw shade at wilgy. but we'll see if it only ends up being shade

yeah my gameplan is to see who is voting who and consolidate on the best looking wagon

sorry for skill issuing

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:21 pm Might I add- there have only been 3 votes all phase. From a mafia standpoint, they probably are fine surveying the field here, and can just pile on whoever they want.

Wilgy has had the highest vote total for the longest at 2- me and Robyn.

Baker has been sitting on stick, and has sort of tried to justify that he thinks stick is just one of the mafia? I guess?

I’ve been flitting around like a fucking jack russell

Delta has disappeared after being active early, and I think that’s a bad sign.

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:47 am Here are some quick reads:

I think Wilgy would be my next scumread. Wilgy has been scumreading me for 3 days and hasn't really made any developments. They had voted awfully outside of "baker" I am actually surprised nobody ever questioned baker/wilgy theatre here, I am thinking we can find a lot of information from a Wilgy flip. There is also a good chance of hitting a wolf anyway

I don't know who else really STICKs out. I see we have new people in town, so imma let you guys vote the scum, I will sheep.

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:53 am also I said stick to PoE smh put them tinfoils away

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:37 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:52 pm but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

you mean 'our wincon?'

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:37 am

Porscha wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:20 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:16 am Immediate thoughts as I scroll through VCA:

We've not resolved a single EoD1 wagon, which kinda stinks. With town appearing in other wagons though, it's almost impossible for Falc to be pure if we are thinking we are actually in the 3v1v4 world that we are in. If we are in 2 v 2 v 4 or 2 v 1 v 5 it becomes POSSIBLE, but with the warning of lylo the first unfortunate world makes more sense.

IF Stick actually is 3p, there's a dif between Martin/Baker. Wish we had that information before the EoD chaos last cycle.

D2 Scotty/Baker dif appears again on the mid wagon. Scotty was also on the townflip DM. The other wagons aren't resolved enough to call any of these pure or not.

Martin appears on DM in isolation and moves to stick. Kinda rough D2 for Martin if stick actually is 3p.

Ah, Garebare was also missing D2, forgot to note that.

This silly trifecta of Robyn, Porscha, Delta missing so many votes is painful. The only vote data I have on Delta is they voted town twice. Porscha's slot has missed all 3 votes.

Really feels like a scenario where there's just not enough data to solve with this. Half inclined to just vote Porscha and hope it's a wolf because I don't want to lose to afk wolf.

Martin and Scotty look weird after reviewing this, but ALMOST seems as if it's just because they've been here and other's havent so they have the opportunity to look weird.

./sigh

Think this is like the 2nd game in a row where I feel like utilization of VCA is proving to be somewhat less than useful.

for the record I only missed one vote, which was day 3, and it would have been sheeping MR onto stick for nothing fruitful. I'm trying not to be biased here because I know you're working with what you have to try and solve with the vca, but claiming that I am the only afk when delta's slot was also afk seems like you aren't bringing it up on purpose. if the vca sucks to use, then just... don't rely on it? saying "yeh baker/martin is diff check, anyway lets vote the lhf" is so wildly misplaced... what's your actual read on me?

Aye, would it feel better if I advised 'your slot missed 3 votes?' Delta's slot has a vote, Garebare voted d1, Delta voted d3. This was also strictly an objective look at VCA alone. I'm not relying asolely upon it as I feel that is what you are implying. It is valuable information and would be silly to not utilize everything we have regardless of how sparce.

You're slot is relatively wolfy as I'm reviewing now. Abi had some early 'obv town reads' that seem relatively simple TMI and not much past it. The only not W/W pairing from what I can tell on your slot from Abi is from Scotty voting the slot early currently. There's also some interactions with Baker and Martin, but those feel more inconclusive towards removing w/w pairings. Delta's interaction's with you are concerning and somewhat awkward as I've pointed out. MR before death advised that your slot needs more scrutiny, along Delta/Martin. Abi also seemed to point 'I can't get a grasp on Robyn and LC' earlier one we know is town and one we know was read to be town by dead town (MR). Lastly as I review Abi's slot, I do think it's easier to read:

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:24 pm I feel like I've done more than enough today for "I think we all think Abigail is scummy" to become "Abigail is readable actually" and yanno the only explanation I've got for scumminess is activity and that I was a CW

Which is asanine the wagons were T v T

as wolfy frustration as opposed to townie frustration. If this was towny frustration, I'd think Abi would've proceeded to iron out the towncore and move from players wanting to 'yeet the slot because cw' and that didn't happen.

Omgus-ish now as it involves your interactions with me directly, I've put so much content into the thread, it really feels like you are using a relatively simple means to decide to vote for me or not. If my interaction's with Baker fypov aren't conclusive on my alignment, where is reading into the other interaction's I have with other players?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:33 am

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:08 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:38 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:33 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:26 pm

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

do you still think baker is a wolf?

Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog

If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.

oh okay, I hear you. I just worry that we are already at the point where it's a mistake to "leave someone wolfy out of the poe" makes it so much easier to hit a more susceptible town today and auto lose. it only helps to correct the issue you are laying out under the assumption we lynch correctly today and have another go tomorrow, which if martin was correct earlier on his math, even if we lynch correctly today we are still in lylo tomorrow, another high pressure situation. like, then what? do we say the same thing about baker tomorrow? I guess some of it will depend on who gets flipped and what they flip. but I feel like you're trying to push a difference check between baker and robyn despite admitting the possibility they could be w/w, which wolf wilgy would absolutely do here to push a miselim between 1 or 2 town. like this is giving me cold feet on my own baker read, but you both could be wolves where you just use that to push a town robyn over and get the win.
doesnt help that you voted baker to no avail day 2 - I know you will vote to bus for cred post flip or just to distance too, which lends to the possibility of the w/w world of you two.

but here - as i've admitted my weakness to reading you - I want to take it slow and see if I can get a grasp this day phase that I lacked before. can you give me any other thoughts on other worlds / pairings or even just individual wolfiness you had thoughts on throughout the game?

Aye, It's more losing to have a shit poe that's too wide than to have someone in there that you can likely be wrong on. That's just a gameplay viewpoint though.

Re tomorrow, we'll have more data. There'll be a kill and there'll be a red flip if we are still in the game, with more data we can likely have a better conclusion on Baker.

If I wanted to push a dif between Baker and Robyn I would. That'd be simple. I'd not need to hide it between the dichotomy that Robyn set up themselves.

You seem to be pointing all the ways I 'COULD' be wolf rather than just finding why I am in fact the wolf. If you think I'm setting up a dif between town for the win, say so and point it out as such. If you think I've been distancing with a wolf Baker teammate, say so and point out why. There's too many ifs and buts and not enough conclusion or decisiveness in your words my friend.

Be confident in yourself, you don't have a weakness in reading me, I think you are correct on my slot more often than not.

Working on other worlds and pairings now. Trying to take a step back and view other angles.

Simple things such as finding who has the highest likelyhood to be paired with anyone i.e. You/Delta are at least a greater chance for a hit than not.

Figuring out if Robyn's push on my slot is wolf inspired or not.

Baker and Stick are both in slots to 'solve later' as it's impossible to find the pairings that break the 3p claim without red flips and assocs and dynamics around Baker indicate more evidence would come from other's before I should vote there.

On that note, even if there's another 3rd party, there's nothing to make them counter claim Stick I presume unless they have a condition against wolfsiding. A sticky situation methinks that we can only solve with a red flip to point us towards stick.

Martin's vote record keeps appearing in my mind as 'should scrutinize this more' but idk, I think i just lose to W Martin. I think I just lose to W Scotty as well at this point. I think I'd lose to both of those slots, and think 'unfortunate I randed town this game' and leave it at that.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:16 am Immediate thoughts as I scroll through VCA:

We've not resolved a single EoD1 wagon, which kinda stinks. With town appearing in other wagons though, it's almost impossible for Falc to be pure if we are thinking we are actually in the 3v1v4 world that we are in. If we are in 2 v 2 v 4 or 2 v 1 v 5 it becomes POSSIBLE, but with the warning of lylo the first unfortunate world makes more sense.

IF Stick actually is 3p, there's a dif between Martin/Baker. Wish we had that information before the EoD chaos last cycle.

D2 Scotty/Baker dif appears again on the mid wagon. Scotty was also on the townflip DM. The other wagons aren't resolved enough to call any of these pure or not.

Martin appears on DM in isolation and moves to stick. Kinda rough D2 for Martin if stick actually is 3p.

Ah, Garebare was also missing D2, forgot to note that.

This silly trifecta of Robyn, Porscha, Delta missing so many votes is painful. The only vote data I have on Delta is they voted town twice. Porscha's slot has missed all 3 votes.

Really feels like a scenario where there's just not enough data to solve with this. Half inclined to just vote Porscha and hope it's a wolf because I don't want to lose to afk wolf.

Martin and Scotty look weird after reviewing this, but ALMOST seems as if it's just because they've been here and other's havent so they have the opportunity to look weird.

./sigh

Think this is like the 2nd game in a row where I feel like utilization of VCA is proving to be somewhat less than useful.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:49 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:21 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:16 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:51 pm I would be willing to bet baker is never wolves with Wilgy

Baker is someone I'm a bit doubtful is a wolf, hence my GTH earlier that its Robyn/Porscha/Delta, but I'm willing to hail-marry with others in hoping they're a wolf. He's probably a more likely wolf than Wilgy.

can you do me a favor and tell me why you tr wilgy please?

I think its difficult to describe outside of vagueness so I'll have to town-case later on the specific points that appeal to me

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:37 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:20 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:58 pm Their iso today says: “oh, stick is bad, 3p must die, this is my idea on how the NKs went down” and peacing. I do expect them back at some point regardless of alignment, but that screams lazy and a wolf looking to just take the easy road to the end

I've seen towns go for this very basic viewpoint/gameplan, particularly outside of The Syndicate (I'm look at you, GOC something-something where Alison hard-claimed 3p early on and just solo won the game lol)

but otherwise yes its something a wolf could easily do as well so I don't really see it as a plus for Baker

And I mean yes, in a non lylo situation (and if LC were alive he would attest), I have been spurned one too many times by letting a claimed 3p waltz to endgame. But like or not, we’re here at endgame and if baker truly believes stick is a 3p, that is beyond lazy thinking. I don’t know his town behavior, but based on how he came after me on D2, I’m confused about his motivations in general

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:36 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:13 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:58 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

I'm preety sure I have the most experience with Baker in this game, just as much as he has the most experience with me. At the very least, I have known baker since the very first forum mafia game he has played.

At face-value I'd say if either of us was wolves then, based on the above, the other would be dead from an NK at some point. The lack of NKs probably messes with that to some extent, but I don't think Baker has really tried pocketing me at all (wherein I'm assuming pocket attempts is the alternative to trying to resolve the other from threatening wolves). At least, not with intention. At worst he's tried implicitly manipulating me a bit on early d2 but that wasn't much and it wasn't a consistent behavior so I think its safe to write it off.

the folly of believing baker would exclusively focus on specifically and only you because of experience is a great way to have the rug pulled out from under you. what did you think of robyn's case on baker earlier?

Don't really think its a folly. He knows I have him in mind a lot of the time -- a recent game (wherein both him and I were town) he was surprised post-game to learn that I had referenced him and his reads a few times post-death and talked about how I felt that we sometime seem to treat each other like rivals of a sort given that both our first games of forum mafia were together. Besides that point though -- he did have opportunity to try an address and interact with me directly but left it just sorta as a sidenote. At most he quotes me later on D2 talking about what he believes is equity value of chopping him. Nothing like a wolf that's afraid of or is concerned by me.

baker wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:14 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 7:56 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 7:17 pm I like Scotty's vibe. Seems comfortable in the thread.

Someone tell me what makes him mafia if you think I'm wrong.

@baker my leige, take it away

I will believe Radishes re-entry was more on the towny side than the classical wolf entrance of "x is town, x and y fight makes no sense. lets look at z"

I am unfamiliar with most of you though so my read on the ranges can be bad. This is why I have been wanting to sheep someone for a few days. Also I had 2 tests at uni this week and one more to go on Saturday so I am busy.

I felt like robyn could be towny from their early D1 and sheeping them would be safe. I felt I am in a similar position due to my schedule.

So can someone explain what is the difference between garebare/Abi/robyn/me? FMPOV I am busy but trying my best to contribute with posts - contrary to Scotty/Martin calling me performative I actually had nothing calculated. robyn is yet to vote or push anyone and Abi is similary not taking any active participation. Garebare is a player in this game, i remember only one post from them. Are we all town and LHF? There is a good chance. Just because I sticked my head out a bit, I got 4 votes on me, makes me think we got a wolf pretending to solve the game

As for the Robyn case: Haven't really read it. I assumed it was a big post of post numbers and glazed over it.

Will probably look at later in-depth when I have time

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:32 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:20 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:16 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:08 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:38 pm
Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog

If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.

oh okay, I hear you. I just worry that we are already at the point where it's a mistake to "leave someone wolfy out of the poe" makes it so much easier to hit a more susceptible town today and auto lose. it only helps to correct the issue you are laying out under the assumption we lynch correctly today and have another go tomorrow, which if martin was correct earlier on his math, even if we lynch correctly today we are still in lylo tomorrow, another high pressure situation. like, then what? do we say the same thing about baker tomorrow? I guess some of it will depend on who gets flipped and what they flip. but I feel like you're trying to push a difference check between baker and robyn despite admitting the possibility they could be w/w, which wolf wilgy would absolutely do here to push a miselim between 1 or 2 town. like this is giving me cold feet on my own baker read, but you both could be wolves where you just use that to push a town robyn over and get the win.
doesnt help that you voted baker to no avail day 2 - I know you will vote to bus for cred post flip or just to distance too, which lends to the possibility of the w/w world of you two.

but here - as i've admitted my weakness to reading you - I want to take it slow and see if I can get a grasp this day phase that I lacked before. can you give me any other thoughts on other worlds / pairings or even just individual wolfiness you had thoughts on throughout the game?

I reject a Wilgy/baker world. They don’t look performative in their suspicion RE each other.

When you have a chance, if you are town, please look at voting and pushes people have made throughout the game.

look - i'm not saying if one is a wolf that the other *has* to be a wolf. I just think at lylo with most names being thrown into the poe bucket by someone, we have to be wary of such attempts at pairings like the one wilgy suggested and is arguably pushing (yes I am influenced by wilgy fear too)

I mean you literally just said you were entertaining a w/w world with them and I’m saying that world is so far out of our galaxy, Captain Kirk won’t even boldly go there

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:16 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:51 pm I would be willing to bet baker is never wolves with Wilgy

Baker is someone I'm a bit doubtful is a wolf, hence my GTH earlier that its Robyn/Porscha/Delta, but I'm willing to hail-marry with others in hoping they're a wolf. He's probably a more likely wolf than Wilgy.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:16 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:08 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:38 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:33 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:26 pm

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

do you still think baker is a wolf?

Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog

If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.

oh okay, I hear you. I just worry that we are already at the point where it's a mistake to "leave someone wolfy out of the poe" makes it so much easier to hit a more susceptible town today and auto lose. it only helps to correct the issue you are laying out under the assumption we lynch correctly today and have another go tomorrow, which if martin was correct earlier on his math, even if we lynch correctly today we are still in lylo tomorrow, another high pressure situation. like, then what? do we say the same thing about baker tomorrow? I guess some of it will depend on who gets flipped and what they flip. but I feel like you're trying to push a difference check between baker and robyn despite admitting the possibility they could be w/w, which wolf wilgy would absolutely do here to push a miselim between 1 or 2 town. like this is giving me cold feet on my own baker read, but you both could be wolves where you just use that to push a town robyn over and get the win.
doesnt help that you voted baker to no avail day 2 - I know you will vote to bus for cred post flip or just to distance too, which lends to the possibility of the w/w world of you two.

but here - as i've admitted my weakness to reading you - I want to take it slow and see if I can get a grasp this day phase that I lacked before. can you give me any other thoughts on other worlds / pairings or even just individual wolfiness you had thoughts on throughout the game?

I reject a Wilgy/baker world. They don’t look performative in their suspicion RE each other.

When you have a chance, if you are town, please look at voting and pushes people have made throughout the game.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:12 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:44 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:58 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

I'm preety sure I have the most experience with Baker in this game, just as much as he has the most experience with me. At the very least, I have known baker since the very first forum mafia game he has played.

At face-value I'd say if either of us was wolves then, based on the above, the other would be dead from an NK at some point. The lack of NKs probably messes with that to some extent, but I don't think Baker has really tried pocketing me at all (wherein I'm assuming pocket attempts is the alternative to trying to resolve the other from threatening wolves). At least, not with intention. At worst he's tried implicitly manipulating me a bit on early d2 but that wasn't much and it wasn't a consistent behavior so I think its safe to write it off.

Not to prod against your baker meta, because I think it is valuable, but if the game is really mech’d out with mafia not getting NKs the first 2 nights, doesn’t that change the way a person approaches the game?

This isn’t me trying to smear baker, but the possibility I’m looking at is- what has baker done since the we’ve had a NK? Do you think baker *always* NKs you instead of MR last night? If the answer is yes, that is probably really informative

the theory is that if two players are very familiar or experienced with each other

then if one of them is wolf the other will eventually see the other as a potential obstacle based on fear of meta knowledge and etc and take actions towards that

a similar example of that, of which you may or may not be more familiar with, is when Alison and Macdougall exist in a game on a syndicate

if one is a wolf and the other is not then they generally are trying to resolve each other at some point to further their wincons, if both are alive late-game then either they're both town and have been very wrong at some point or both of them are wolves

I don't think Baker has done anything directly to me to try and convince me he's not a wolf. He's just been in his own world, and only bad thing I can remember in that department was the mention of the appeal to me. He doesn't seem to be afraid of me at all really.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:58 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

I'm preety sure I have the most experience with Baker in this game, just as much as he has the most experience with me. At the very least, I have known baker since the very first forum mafia game he has played.

At face-value I'd say if either of us was wolves then, based on the above, the other would be dead from an NK at some point. The lack of NKs probably messes with that to some extent, but I don't think Baker has really tried pocketing me at all (wherein I'm assuming pocket attempts is the alternative to trying to resolve the other from threatening wolves). At least, not with intention. At worst he's tried implicitly manipulating me a bit on early d2 but that wasn't much and it wasn't a consistent behavior so I think its safe to write it off.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:38 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:33 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:26 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:07 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:55 pm

Been busy.

PoE still contains Porscha, Stick, Delta, Robyn.

Still game losing.

Baker's out of PoE via dichotomy with Robyn. Robyn vouching is of 3 options 1. a correct civ 2. a wolf with tmi 3. A wolf shielding buddy.

Any of these situations Robyn's in control of the dichotomy and to be yeeted first.

I do intend on deeper diving this evening when the kids are asleep.

erm, why is it not possible robyn's read on baker could be from an incorrect civ? and option 3, wouldn't that mean baker would be poe *with* robyn and therefore baker shouldn't be out of poe from your perspective?

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

do you still think baker is a wolf?

Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog

If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:38 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:33 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:26 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:07 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:55 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:09 pm @DrWilgy [VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

If you’re town please help. Who’s your top suspect?

My track record is really good in lylo but I can’t solve everything (though I can try )

Been busy.

PoE still contains Porscha, Stick, Delta, Robyn.

Still game losing.

Baker's out of PoE via dichotomy with Robyn. Robyn vouching is of 3 options 1. a correct civ 2. a wolf with tmi 3. A wolf shielding buddy.

Any of these situations Robyn's in control of the dichotomy and to be yeeted first.

I do intend on deeper diving this evening when the kids are asleep.

erm, why is it not possible robyn's read on baker could be from an incorrect civ? and option 3, wouldn't that mean baker would be poe *with* robyn and therefore baker shouldn't be out of poe from your perspective?

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

do you still think baker is a wolf?

Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:26 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:07 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:55 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:09 pm @DrWilgy [VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

If you’re town please help. Who’s your top suspect?

My track record is really good in lylo but I can’t solve everything (though I can try )

Been busy.

PoE still contains Porscha, Stick, Delta, Robyn.

Still game losing.

Baker's out of PoE via dichotomy with Robyn. Robyn vouching is of 3 options 1. a correct civ 2. a wolf with tmi 3. A wolf shielding buddy.

Any of these situations Robyn's in control of the dichotomy and to be yeeted first.

I do intend on deeper diving this evening when the kids are asleep.

erm, why is it not possible robyn's read on baker could be from an incorrect civ? and option 3, wouldn't that mean baker would be poe *with* robyn and therefore baker shouldn't be out of poe from your perspective?

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:55 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:09 pm @DrWilgy [VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

If you’re town please help. Who’s your top suspect?

My track record is really good in lylo but I can’t solve everything (though I can try )

Been busy.

PoE still contains Porscha, Stick, Delta, Robyn.

Still game losing.

Baker's out of PoE via dichotomy with Robyn. Robyn vouching is of 3 options 1. a correct civ 2. a wolf with tmi 3. A wolf shielding buddy.

Any of these situations Robyn's in control of the dichotomy and to be yeeted first.

I do intend on deeper diving this evening when the kids are asleep.

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 3:50 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 3:36 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:56 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:33 pm I also have a decent suspicion as to who Stick has to protect and I'm fairly sure whoever they're protecting is town.

So like I'm never voting Stick here. That's GG if you guys are right and we have to vote out Stick (alongside the wolves) to win, which I don't think is the case.

I feel like there’s a bit of confbiasing, because in the scenario where stick is wolf…they just name someone not on their team and call it a baked apple pie.

So I see Martin and Robyn defending stick here. Interesting.

Wilgy is playing the ‘I got nothing’ card.

Delta is someone I’m just going to listen to today
Hahahahahahaha I hate this game

why are you going to "listen" to delta? do you mean just follow him?

I don’t know what I mean. I feel like I’m full of contradictions, since now I feel bamboozled all around on what I should be thinking.

I reread your wall and I agree with Martin that it feels very mech-heavy and all I got from it is that we shouldn’t vote a 3p today.

Since you’ve replaced in, do you have any strong scum reads? Because I can’t remember them

Stick wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:19 am also, ill just say that my wincon player reveal even if i did reveal them would not be particularly revolutionary to anybody's wolves here. run with the current poe

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:20 am

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 3:06 am when I read the way stick claimed 3p, I doubted it... a survivor type claim gives me the heebie jeebies. popular mafia claim where I learned how to play. so I actually looked through some of stick's iso to see how she had been playing - and honestly, I disagree with robyn / baker that she hasn't played townie to at least some degree. I do actually think stick was probably trying to figure out what alignment her target is unless it is specifically <redacted> (I will wait for her to decide if she wants to reveal who it is, b/c honestly I'm not sure it matters right now. even stick herself does not know the alignment of her target ... we can speculate that her target is theoretically town based on host claiming mylo/lylo today, but we don't know. like, what if we are working in a world where it's 2/2/4? what if stick 's target is neither town or mafia? hell, what if they even know of each other and their win con is something like "x person must survive until end game - person y must ensure x lives regardless of whether person y stays alive or not" or I dunno, maybe it's more like how stick said it is, where she acts more like a lawyer from among us where she knows her target and they just dont know of their lawyer.

sorry for the mental tanget, but what I was originally trying to say is that I now believe stick's claim based on her play. *If* her role is as described, how would I play it? Survivor needs to appear towny to some degree, right? If you're wolfy and claim it when you get wagoned early, it's a keklmao, now you're going over for sure. from her own iso, that doesn't seem to have happened, "that" being that she was notably skating by or actively wolfy. but she also said today she can die and get the win as long as her target doesn't ever die. I don't think there is any reason for her alleged win con to avoid saying who the target is - we aren't ever going to vote her today to specifically ruin her wincon when town's wincon is now or never on the line. but she might be worried about the alignment of her target and bringing a spotlight to them or something like that, if she doesn't know their alignment and suspects they are wolfing. (but then i'm not sure how much she could lean into saying she town sided yesterday, if that's how she feels) - ultimately the suspicion (if we take it her role description at face value) of her target's may play into how much she wants to reveal who it is. maybe they just have never been in danger and she wants to keep it that way, obviously, for her own benefit.

I am willing to give robyn some benefit of the doubt in their belief that they think stick hasn't played very towny this game, because ultimately they aren't trying to push any agenda with it. town needs to avoid a 3p lynch today or face almost-certain loss. what I don't like is that baker hopped on that thought in agreement and then also tried convincing us it's worth killing stick lol. it almost feels too obvious... I'll at least give him the point that I haven't read any of his earlier posts in the game, but I'm worried it's just testing the waters to see how pliable the thread might be to giving into a poor lynch that pretty much guarantee a wolf win.

this is such high-density with thoughts while rambling about a 3p I'm inclined to say its one of those cases where a wolf finds a bit of mech (I realize its not entirely that, but the conclusion/topic is strongly related to mech) to talk about it and either consciously or unconsciously stretches it out

like this sort of dumping of thought process can help me see someone town but like its better if its something more nuanced and less mech-related, seeing this on a specific claim or whatever is just eugh

only -1 though, cuz I'm probably too biased in that opinion for it to be very accurate

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:57 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:01 am then, like, why can't they just out that when they become a majority wagon? or when they think it'll soon be past the point of no return? we'll know that either someone's wrong in their reading or is being a wolf if they're voting a plausible town from that fact

idealistically I'd like to think the latter

if we just reveal now everyone will avoid it like the plauge and we won't get any further information from it, assuming anyone even pushes the to-be-protected person

Realistically, if we think stick is who she says she is and her partner is town, wouldn’t outing that person help narrow the POE?

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:56 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:33 pm I also have a decent suspicion as to who Stick has to protect and I'm fairly sure whoever they're protecting is town.

So like I'm never voting Stick here. That's GG if you guys are right and we have to vote out Stick (alongside the wolves) to win, which I don't think is the case.

I feel like there’s a bit of confbiasing, because in the scenario where stick is wolf…they just name someone not on their team and call it a baked apple pie.

So I see Martin and Robyn defending stick here. Interesting.

Wilgy is playing the ‘I got nothing’ card.

Delta is someone I’m just going to listen to today
Hahahahahahaha I hate this game

robyn wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:14 am

Stick wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:09 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 4:46 am I've caught up.

Someone let me know if we are voting Stick/LC or Delta.

Tyvm.

Gn.

if wilgy's mafia this is 3 town BTW ^

but do you believe that he's scum?

Stick wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:09 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 4:46 am I've caught up.

Someone let me know if we are voting Stick/LC or Delta.

Tyvm.

Gn.

if wilgy's mafia this is 3 town BTW ^

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:00 am [VOTE: long con] aubergine

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 5:19 am Question for whoever while I catch up for a bit;

I die town, so what's causing the lack of kills?

Because I dont get the whole "oh afk wolf no kill" because it seems unlikely the factional would be assigned to one role specifically anyway

And it doesnt really feel like it holds up when the guy before me was here at some point. Not to mention that if you think my guy is afk with the sole ability to NK, why then hand it back to wolves by killing him over hunting outside of that slot?

I dunno. Would like to hear some theories ab the NK stuff there because it'll need to happen sooner or later and on a skim it feels like that's been wilfully ignored :P