The Syndicate

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:55 am Also would you say at the moment anyone you don’t actively townread should be in your PoE?

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:45 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:42 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:20 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:12 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:06 am The downside is that if those wagons are w/t, the townie almost certainly is the one that gets elimmed because the deleted votes are more likely, overall, to be on the wolf.

This is true but that town is in the PoE anyways and likely to be on the chopping block and if it's close we can use that info to make sure the rest of the PoE is actually wolfs instead of just say

Running up that town and killing them like with 9 votes because they are in the PoE and now we have no data and can't use any info based on wagon movements to analyze the validity of the poe and now it's an 8 v 3 with a poe of 3 all dead towns and no new data.

I think you just have a very narrow idea of what 'data' is.

Personally I think the way the soneji wagon developed is very revealing:

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:24 am Day 3:

Soneji (6): Golden, Falcon, Lucy, SVS, Splints, Kate

Seanzie (2): Neon, Soneji

Splints (2): Scotty, Seanzie

Falcon (1): Dennis

Scotty (1): Roxy

Scotty was on splints and was gone, so he wasn't moving no matter what he was. Kate, SVS, Lucy and I were all involved in trying to find consensus. Splints self-prezzed and also contributed to some extent.

Each of you, Dennis and Roxy arguably landed in spots that

Matahari didn't vote at all. Falcon didn't contribute to the consensus and didn't rock the boat.

Conclusion: of the four, Falcon and Matahari definitely looked worst, and would be my top choices for counterwagons today (given I don't think either of them have ever looked particularly good).

Roxy also looks bad, in particular her vigilant defence of splints when a counterwagon formed there. w/w or w/t worlds for roxy/splints both work there. The fact that a splints counterwagon *didn't* form when it could have is material, to me. I specifically noted I could move my vote back there, to leave a clear indicator to people that a wagon was viable.

For me, that's lots of data. To just write it off, I can't get on board with.

See Falcon is just being Falcon I have no reason to suspect that he looks bad because of his vote. To be clear I don't think Falcon is town. But this is NAI and I don't think he's scum either.

Mata didn't do anything and is gone now. I refuse to judge the slot based on the inactivity of another person and I don't think Mata looks bad for not playing.

Roxy... okay sure what's the scum motivation to throw yourself into the line of fire there if Splints goes over? Frankly I think Roxy is town this is a small reason why. I'm not sold on that though.

So you think my entire PoE is town?

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:20 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:12 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:06 am The downside is that if those wagons are w/t, the townie almost certainly is the one that gets elimmed because the deleted votes are more likely, overall, to be on the wolf.

This is true but that town is in the PoE anyways and likely to be on the chopping block and if it's close we can use that info to make sure the rest of the PoE is actually wolfs instead of just say

Running up that town and killing them like with 9 votes because they are in the PoE and now we have no data and can't use any info based on wagon movements to analyze the validity of the poe and now it's an 8 v 3 with a poe of 3 all dead towns and no new data.

I think you just have a very narrow idea of what 'data' is.

Personally I think the way the soneji wagon developed is very revealing:

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:24 am Day 3:

Soneji (6): Golden, Falcon, Lucy, SVS, Splints, Kate

Seanzie (2): Neon, Soneji

Splints (2): Scotty, Seanzie

Falcon (1): Dennis

Scotty (1): Roxy

Scotty was on splints and was gone, so he wasn't moving no matter what he was. Kate, SVS, Lucy and I were all involved in trying to find consensus. Splints self-prezzed and also contributed to some extent.

Each of you, Dennis and Roxy arguably landed in spots that

Matahari didn't vote at all. Falcon didn't contribute to the consensus and didn't rock the boat.

Conclusion: of the four, Falcon and Matahari definitely looked worst, and would be my top choices for counterwagons today (given I don't think either of them have ever looked particularly good).

Roxy also looks bad, in particular her vigilant defence of splints when a counterwagon formed there. w/w or w/t worlds for roxy/splints both work there. The fact that a splints counterwagon *didn't* form when it could have is material, to me. I specifically noted I could move my vote back there, to leave a clear indicator to people that a wagon was viable.

For me, that's lots of data. To just write it off, I can't get on board with.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:21 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:18 am Seanzie is off the board forever at this point. So.

Because you've changed your mind? Or because you just can't see getting him elimmed?

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:13 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:09 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:07 am I actually 100% agree with you on that, neon.

My problem is that the counterwagons to date haven't been in the PoE. Yesterday it was Seanzie. Keeping the towncore clear of elim is priority 1.

I mean I provided a list of people I would happily counter wagon Sean was one name in that list.

But everyone just shut down the idea of a counter wagon repeatedly so I stuck with Sean because where else would I go?

You only ever expressed being on board with voting me and voting sean. There was actually a point where it might have been viable to make splints/soneji counterwagons, and I would have probably stuck on splints if I could have guaranteed it kept seanzie out of range.

I'm not against counterwagons, I'm pro consensus on who they should be though. If we can get consensus on counterwagons, that's good.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:10 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:08 am And since everyone refuses to play show and tell and instead thinks the best way to get me to understand is to tell me to do things without showing it I tend to just continue to trust myself over that yes.

Because you can tell me "go find it" but I'm just going to see what I've already seen unless you show me what I'm missing.

I can reeread this thread 4 times my eyes don't change. I've read everything I've paid attention of I'm missing something telling me to go reread it isn't going to help.

I've seen soft claims I've seen hidden things I'm obviously still drawing the conclusions I'm drawing.

If someone actually flips power role, will rereading the iso of that person have the chance to change your perspective on it?

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:06 am The downside is that if those wagons are w/t, the townie almost certainly is the one that gets elimmed because the deleted votes are more likely, overall, to be on the wolf.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:07 am I actually 100% agree with you on that, neon.

My problem is that the counterwagons to date haven't been in the PoE. Yesterday it was Seanzie. Keeping the towncore clear of elim is priority 1.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:48 am Neon's play around me has been essentially sticking her fingers in her ears, closing her eyes and saying 'na na na na can't hear you'

My gut still says town but I want objective perspectives on it please.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:33 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:29 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:24 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:21 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:19 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:17 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:13 am

Well lets hope we elim the vote deleter soon then.

Orrrrrrrrrrrr we could not consolidate votes and give mafia easy cover a 3rd day in a row.

There is no cover in this game setup.

Than please explain why you haven't killed the wolfs yet?

Like... what? Of course there's cover.

You think there's cover in wagons when the wolves can delete two votes and we don't know which two. They have a role that literally decieves traditional wagon analysis. Their main tool is anti-conuterwagon

We have THREE ROLES that get information on who is town and who is wolf. None of them are dead. They have up to five pieces of valid independent data about current players, and yet we have had no strong push against an actual wolf.

What does that mean? There's a lot of INFO floating in the thread about who should be in the towncore. And you don't look for it. You just stick to mountainous analysis.

I do look for it. You should too.

Again I'm not an idiot. I see things. I also see how the thread has progressed and I look at the info I have and what do you know. We haven't solved the game and have only killed town. Weird.

And I'm not calling you an idiot. What you are is stubborn. Which is why I keep putting our discussions in a town basket, because god knows I can be a stubborn as fuck townie too.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:24 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:21 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:19 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:17 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:13 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:06 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:47 am I approve of Scotty's falcon vote but even though I'd like consensus by EoD, I do think counterwagons during the day are good and help us determine what to do.

So for now, [VOTE: Vivax] aubergine

I will continue to never vote a runaway wagon. Like that's something I won't budge on

Well lets hope we elim the vote deleter soon then.

Orrrrrrrrrrrr we could not consolidate votes and give mafia easy cover a 3rd day in a row.

There is no cover in this game setup.

Than please explain why you haven't killed the wolfs yet?

Like... what? Of course there's cover.

You think there's cover in wagons when the wolves can delete two votes and we don't know which two. They have a role that literally decieves traditional wagon analysis. Their main tool is anti-conuterwagon

We have THREE ROLES that get information on who is town and who is wolf. None of them are dead. They have up to five pieces of valid independent data about current players, and yet we have had no strong push against an actual wolf.

What does that mean? There's a lot of INFO floating in the thread about who should be in the towncore. And you don't look for it. You just stick to mountainous analysis.

I do look for it. You should too.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:22 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:21 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:20 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:17 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:15 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:07 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:53 am

Also, Neon, for me it requires a very high threshhold of certainty to ignore this post.

I mean... the thing is if Dennis is wolf I think it's always with Kate.

No this read has nothing to do with *that*

Yeah, well Kate isn't wolf, which is part of why I know Dennis isn't wolf.

I know Kate very well.

You claim you love analysis but you are doing none of it.

I've done much analysis.

You haven't even stopped for a second to go "Wait, golden says he's been towncleared in the thread. Maybe, just maybe I should figure out what that's about'.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:19 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:17 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:13 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:06 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:47 am I approve of Scotty's falcon vote but even though I'd like consensus by EoD, I do think counterwagons during the day are good and help us determine what to do.

So for now, [VOTE: Vivax] aubergine

I will continue to never vote a runaway wagon. Like that's something I won't budge on

Well lets hope we elim the vote deleter soon then.

Orrrrrrrrrrrr we could not consolidate votes and give mafia easy cover a 3rd day in a row.

There is no cover in this game setup.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:20 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:17 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:15 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:07 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:53 am

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:00 am As Golden would say, I will eat my hat if Dennis is deepwolfing.

Also, Neon, for me it requires a very high threshhold of certainty to ignore this post.

I mean... the thing is if Dennis is wolf I think it's always with Kate.

No this read has nothing to do with *that*

Yeah, well Kate isn't wolf, which is part of why I know Dennis isn't wolf.

I know Kate very well.

You claim you love analysis but you are doing none of it.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:15 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:07 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:53 am

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:00 am As Golden would say, I will eat my hat if Dennis is deepwolfing.

Also, Neon, for me it requires a very high threshhold of certainty to ignore this post.

I mean... the thing is if Dennis is wolf I think it's always with Kate.

No this read has nothing to do with *that*

Yeah, well Kate isn't wolf, which is part of why I know Dennis isn't wolf.

I know Kate very well.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:13 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:06 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:47 am I approve of Scotty's falcon vote but even though I'd like consensus by EoD, I do think counterwagons during the day are good and help us determine what to do.

So for now, [VOTE: Vivax] aubergine

I will continue to never vote a runaway wagon. Like that's something I won't budge on

Well lets hope we elim the vote deleter soon then.

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:12 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:09 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:06 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:05 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:43 am @Neon your ghost votes keep scaring me lol. Like 'Where did that vote come from?!?' scare

I wasn't certain that Soneji was town but I was confident enough to try to stop the wagon. If I KNEW Soneji was town for any reason, I wouldn't make such a bold play like that and risk blowing my cover. It's just kinda in my nature to play stealthier like that.

I don't know how to interpret this so I've decided not to try.

My gifs always mean something.

I rarely explain them.

This is the joy of playing with Neon lol

Ugh damn it you've made me try to interpret it.

I posted a block of text of me defending why I was so defensive about Soneji and why it's not wolfy behavior for me. You see that as hypnotizing because there's no one to cross reference that with and you just have to trust me?

I can see the frustration in your signature now.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:12 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:03 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:40 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:28 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:20 am

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:00 am As Golden would say, I will eat my hat if Dennis is deepwolfing.

I only promised to bite it.

But I agree. Dennis posting today feels obvitown.

Golden having the exact opposite view that I have on everything is making it impossible for me to see them as town especially because Golden has been a heavy voice in getting the thread to its current state and its current state is dead town.

I'm looking forward to debriefing this game with you afterwards. Whichever of us is righter gets gloating rights, and I'm fine if that's you.

But I think the fundamental problem you and I have right now is that we both inherently want to tinfoil each other just because we don't agree, when actually finding where we *do* agree could be significantly helpful.

I think you'd do well to consider you just met me and that there are people here who have more than a decade's experience of disagreeing with me on a lot when I'm town saying I'm town. My God, SVS literally not suspecting me at all is practically a miracle, that should virtually be a lockclear of me lol.

Or, read my signature. The top one expresses my town game and the bottom one expressed my baddie game.

(Which reminds me, Vivax, when you asked me how I got the nickname 'the coward' in the anniversary game I seriously thought you had me nailed. I thought you'd recognise the NK pattern as safe).

My problem there is you keep telling me I should town read you but without showing me I can't do it. You can say you're out of your scum range but I can't blindly follow that because I don't know that you are.

You can say I should follow SVS and TR you because they do and that's fair because I TR SVS but I can't be sure that you and SVS aren't just a team because I have almost no experience with anyone in this game. I'm playing meta blind so I have to trust my instincts.

The person I had the most meta on was Sabi I was right on Sabi. I have a decent amount of meta on Lucy and time will tell there but like the grand majority of players in this game that haven't been killed I've played like 2 or less games with.

I think there is literal thread evidence of my townclear if you go looking for it. I'm not asking you to rely on SVS. I'm asking you to rely on thread consensus because in a game with the three town power roles we have consensus means something beyond our individual gut feels. We can't build our towncore with infodumps but we can build it with trust.

And I'm sorry for not having a good enough read on you on day two to listen about sabi... I did play bad on day two, I regret how tunnelly I was. But I think town is so close to steamrolling this game if we don't infight.

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:06 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:05 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:43 am @Neon your ghost votes keep scaring me lol. Like 'Where did that vote come from?!?' scare

I wasn't certain that Soneji was town but I was confident enough to try to stop the wagon. If I KNEW Soneji was town for any reason, I wouldn't make such a bold play like that and risk blowing my cover. It's just kinda in my nature to play stealthier like that.

I don't know how to interpret this so I've decided not to try.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:53 am

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:00 am As Golden would say, I will eat my hat if Dennis is deepwolfing.

Also, Neon, for me it requires a very high threshhold of certainty to ignore this post.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:47 am I approve of Scotty's falcon vote but even though I'd like consensus by EoD, I do think counterwagons during the day are good and help us determine what to do.

So for now, [VOTE: Vivax] aubergine

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:43 am @Neon your ghost votes keep scaring me lol. Like 'Where did that vote come from?!?' scare

I wasn't certain that Soneji was town but I was confident enough to try to stop the wagon. If I KNEW Soneji was town for any reason, I wouldn't make such a bold play like that and risk blowing my cover. It's just kinda in my nature to play stealthier like that.

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:45 am And while I'm on the topic of votes @RondoDimBuckle self voted. What's up with that?

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:40 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:28 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:20 am

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:00 am As Golden would say, I will eat my hat if Dennis is deepwolfing.

I only promised to bite it.

But I agree. Dennis posting today feels obvitown.

Golden having the exact opposite view that I have on everything is making it impossible for me to see them as town especially because Golden has been a heavy voice in getting the thread to its current state and its current state is dead town.

I'm looking forward to debriefing this game with you afterwards. Whichever of us is righter gets gloating rights, and I'm fine if that's you.

But I think the fundamental problem you and I have right now is that we both inherently want to tinfoil each other just because we don't agree, when actually finding where we *do* agree could be significantly helpful.

I think you'd do well to consider you just met me and that there are people here who have more than a decade's experience of disagreeing with me on a lot when I'm town saying I'm town. My God, SVS literally not suspecting me at all is practically a miracle, that should virtually be a lockclear of me lol.

Or, read my signature. The top one expresses my town game and the bottom one expressed my baddie game.

(Which reminds me, Vivax, when you asked me how I got the nickname 'the coward' in the anniversary game I seriously thought you had me nailed. I thought you'd recognise the NK pattern as safe).

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:29 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:25 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:02 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:56 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:35 pm

Soneji wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:16 am The logical assumption is that someone includes themselves among their towncore by default so it's unnecessary and potentially performative to list themselves, because either they know they're town from their rolecard, or they know they need to fake being town from their rolecard. One doesn't normally include themselves in readslist as they cannot make a read on their own alignment which is a known factor to them, and either they know they're town or need to fake it. The need for anti-town to fake being town is what subconsciously can cause them to want to project "I AM TOWN" at every opportunity, hence listing themselves in towncores/townreads lists. It is common enough for actual townies, especially from certain site cultures, to list themselves in such things so it's not a hard wolf tell, but it can be a soft tell when alongside other performative town projection examples.

Why would Soneji defend Neon with a after she got called out for adding herself in her towncore? Especially bringing into the equation of different site cultures doesn't make any sense if Soneji is wolf and Neon is town, when it seemed like (to me) that Golden was suspicious of Neon.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 4:03 pm If you ask me a joke of a question, you're going to get a joke of an answer.

This is just shutting down conversations that were off topic.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:00 am The first group is rightly calling for accountability from the Wilgy voters, while the second has every reason to not want to rock the boat. Dennis is a newbie, what narrative is he going to try and control? Plus several players rushed to proclaim him townie for his EoD. Seanzie just narrowly escaped the noose, of course they'd avoid a thunder dome. SVS does look good from how they explained their vote, and how they wanted a tie.

This is analysis and I like it.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:31 am I'm still reading through parts of the thread but I want to bring forth a thought on the set-up that could certainly have an effect on wolves mindset in this game. I didn't see wolves win condition listed anywhere but assuming it's to reach vote parity, or even just killing all town, then so long as all three members are alive then they win as soon as there are only five town members left due to being able to vote silence two townies each night. At that point town can only tie elim votes, so has no path to winning. So more than normal wolves will want to ensure all members make it to endgame, and keeping the Lawyer alive is top priority as even with just one other wolf they lower the number needed for vote parity. Bussing is very unlikely, and hard defenses of packmates very likely.

I don't think a wolf would bring this up, because why explain your strategy to the entire thread?

I dunno, it's just all of their posts in general I agree with but these were a few examples. Maybe in the 3rd one I'm being convinced by them explaining I don't know what I'm doing still but other than that it's just everything. Now please answer my question.

@Neon I think this is what you wanted?

Yes thanks I'll look at it ^^

The reasoning is there but I just don't see how this leads you to alignment certainty.

Remember that this was thrown together towards EoD. I also say in another post somewhere at EoD that I wasn't 100% sure but I was more certain than not that Soneji was town and I was willing to stand by that.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:20 am

Kate wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:00 am As Golden would say, I will eat my hat if Dennis is deepwolfing.

I only promised to bite it.

But I agree. Dennis posting today feels obvitown.

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:07 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:31 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:56 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:05 am Hey remember when I said don't consolidate on a wagon it's just gonna kill a town we need two competing wagons and than for the 2nd day in a ris we had a run away wagon kill a town.

Yeah i remember when I said that.

I remember when you said we need two competing wagons for info. Did you actually say the bit about ‘it’ll kill town’?

I don’t like statisically likely whataboutism. A wolf can say ‘you’ll kill town’ and then try and get credit for that the next day.

I am 99.8% sure I said it was gonna kill a town yes

You did, I just backread that an hour ago

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:02 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:56 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:35 pm

Soneji wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:16 am The logical assumption is that someone includes themselves among their towncore by default so it's unnecessary and potentially performative to list themselves, because either they know they're town from their rolecard, or they know they need to fake being town from their rolecard. One doesn't normally include themselves in readslist as they cannot make a read on their own alignment which is a known factor to them, and either they know they're town or need to fake it. The need for anti-town to fake being town is what subconsciously can cause them to want to project "I AM TOWN" at every opportunity, hence listing themselves in towncores/townreads lists. It is common enough for actual townies, especially from certain site cultures, to list themselves in such things so it's not a hard wolf tell, but it can be a soft tell when alongside other performative town projection examples.

Why would Soneji defend Neon with a after she got called out for adding herself in her towncore? Especially bringing into the equation of different site cultures doesn't make any sense if Soneji is wolf and Neon is town, when it seemed like (to me) that Golden was suspicious of Neon.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 4:03 pm If you ask me a joke of a question, you're going to get a joke of an answer.

This is just shutting down conversations that were off topic.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:00 am The first group is rightly calling for accountability from the Wilgy voters, while the second has every reason to not want to rock the boat. Dennis is a newbie, what narrative is he going to try and control? Plus several players rushed to proclaim him townie for his EoD. Seanzie just narrowly escaped the noose, of course they'd avoid a thunder dome. SVS does look good from how they explained their vote, and how they wanted a tie.

This is analysis and I like it.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:31 am I'm still reading through parts of the thread but I want to bring forth a thought on the set-up that could certainly have an effect on wolves mindset in this game. I didn't see wolves win condition listed anywhere but assuming it's to reach vote parity, or even just killing all town, then so long as all three members are alive then they win as soon as there are only five town members left due to being able to vote silence two townies each night. At that point town can only tie elim votes, so has no path to winning. So more than normal wolves will want to ensure all members make it to endgame, and keeping the Lawyer alive is top priority as even with just one other wolf they lower the number needed for vote parity. Bussing is very unlikely, and hard defenses of packmates very likely.

I don't think a wolf would bring this up, because why explain your strategy to the entire thread?

I dunno, it's just all of their posts in general I agree with but these were a few examples. Maybe in the 3rd one I'm being convinced by them explaining I don't know what I'm doing still but other than that it's just everything. Now please answer my question.

@Neon I think this is what you wanted?

Yes thanks I'll look at it ^^

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:56 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:35 pm

Soneji wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:16 am The logical assumption is that someone includes themselves among their towncore by default so it's unnecessary and potentially performative to list themselves, because either they know they're town from their rolecard, or they know they need to fake being town from their rolecard. One doesn't normally include themselves in readslist as they cannot make a read on their own alignment which is a known factor to them, and either they know they're town or need to fake it. The need for anti-town to fake being town is what subconsciously can cause them to want to project "I AM TOWN" at every opportunity, hence listing themselves in towncores/townreads lists. It is common enough for actual townies, especially from certain site cultures, to list themselves in such things so it's not a hard wolf tell, but it can be a soft tell when alongside other performative town projection examples.

Why would Soneji defend Neon with a after she got called out for adding herself in her towncore? Especially bringing into the equation of different site cultures doesn't make any sense if Soneji is wolf and Neon is town, when it seemed like (to me) that Golden was suspicious of Neon.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 4:03 pm If you ask me a joke of a question, you're going to get a joke of an answer.

This is just shutting down conversations that were off topic.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:00 am The first group is rightly calling for accountability from the Wilgy voters, while the second has every reason to not want to rock the boat. Dennis is a newbie, what narrative is he going to try and control? Plus several players rushed to proclaim him townie for his EoD. Seanzie just narrowly escaped the noose, of course they'd avoid a thunder dome. SVS does look good from how they explained their vote, and how they wanted a tie.

This is analysis and I like it.

Soneji wrote: ↑Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:31 am I'm still reading through parts of the thread but I want to bring forth a thought on the set-up that could certainly have an effect on wolves mindset in this game. I didn't see wolves win condition listed anywhere but assuming it's to reach vote parity, or even just killing all town, then so long as all three members are alive then they win as soon as there are only five town members left due to being able to vote silence two townies each night. At that point town can only tie elim votes, so has no path to winning. So more than normal wolves will want to ensure all members make it to endgame, and keeping the Lawyer alive is top priority as even with just one other wolf they lower the number needed for vote parity. Bussing is very unlikely, and hard defenses of packmates very likely.

I don't think a wolf would bring this up, because why explain your strategy to the entire thread?

I dunno, it's just all of their posts in general I agree with but these were a few examples. Maybe in the 3rd one I'm being convinced by them explaining I don't know what I'm doing still but other than that it's just everything. Now please answer my question.

@Neon I think this is what you wanted?

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:36 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:31 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:56 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:05 am Hey remember when I said don't consolidate on a wagon it's just gonna kill a town we need two competing wagons and than for the 2nd day in a ris we had a run away wagon kill a town.

Yeah i remember when I said that.

I remember when you said we need two competing wagons for info. Did you actually say the bit about ‘it’ll kill town’?

I don’t like statisically likely whataboutism. A wolf can say ‘you’ll kill town’ and then try and get credit for that the next day.

I am 99.8% sure I said it was gonna kill a town yes

Fair enough. I think it killed town because soneji id town not because we built consensus.

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:59 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:48 am

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:40 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:06 am Dennis opening today looks bad. And Lucy hit on some things eod that were bothering me about Dennis yesterday that I was mostly ignoring.

What about it? And I still don't understand what Lucy meant with the whole 'influence' thing. I don't think I've changed anybody's minds on anything if that what you mean, so feel free to keep pushing that.

I'm not good at words so let me try my best.

Your opening feels like a wolf trying to cover themself with the over hype doc praise followed by more cover for yourself because you immediately push suspicion onto looking only on the top wagon for scum a wagon you were firmly against.

That cover protects you the deep wolf and your team because the chances we hit correct in a 7 person pool are well 1 in 7 but if we focused off wagon that pool becomes 1 in 5 and it's almost certain all wolfs didn't stack on Soneji.

Oh and your firm anti Soneji position also reeks of TMI but also makes me think the other wagons that were close when Soneji started to take off also were town. I know I'm town and I was one of them.

I can't really argue with this but I'll try my darndest. I don't think my doc praise was necessarily 'overhype' but I think it's a little wild that doc saved someone twice in a row and wanted to express that.

I immediately pushed suspicion cuz this day feels pretty important, like this is our second or last chance to get a wolf, and I want to make the most of it by saying 'hey, these 6 people like almost definitely have a wolf' and others have said that point too. Do we not have more leads on the people in Soneji wagon than out?

I need someone to give me an explanation of TMI because my context clue skills are clearly not cutting it. It means too much information, I know that, but I don't understand the context it's meant to be used in. What do you mean 'close when Soneji started to take off'? Like wagons who has 2 votes?

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:32 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:57 am

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:15 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:07 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:15 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:15 am

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:28 am D1:

Wilgz (6): marmot, golden, seanzie, Dennis, svs, Lucy

Seanzie (5): Kate, Wilgz, Neon, Sabi, Scotty

Splints (1): Bea

Golden (1): Falcon

Roxy (1): Roxy





D2:

Sabi (7): Sean, Kate, Scotty, Golden, Mata, Lucy, SVS

Lucy (3): Splints, Dennis, Soneji

Golden (1): Sabi

Seanzie (1): Neon

Someji (1): Falcon



Never been wagoned at EoD (8): Bea, Dennis, Falcon, Neon, Kate, Mata, SVS, Scotty

People on both Maj wagons (4): Golden, Sean, SVS, Lucy

People only on Wilgz (1): Dennis

People only on Sabi (3): Kate, Scotty, Mata

People never on the Maj wagon (4): Neon, Bea, Falcon, Roxy

I really like this post. What can we do with it? Neon I'm so glad you're here. Don't worry @S~V~S and @Golden I still fangirl you two topsies but neon has entered the chat...

To go further into what I personally think we can get out of this and what I'm looking at personally when I analyze the raw data

I think there's never more than 1 wolf that votes on both maj wagons so at most there's one in Golden, Sean, SVS, Lucy

I TR SVS and Lucy so I think at most one in Sean and Golden and would you look at that this last page solidified that for me lol. It's possible it's none though.

I think there's 1 on Wilgz at least but probably exactly one unless Sean is wolf. Which is one in golden, seanzie, Dennis, svs, Lucy. Which continues that same trend.

Regardless of Sean's alignment I think there's no more than one in Kate Myself and Scotty and probably exactly one in all scenarios.

I think there's a wolf in the 8 who have never has a vote at EoD which is just duh Level analysis but whatever at least one in Bea, Dennis, Falcon, Neon, Kate, Mata, SVS, Scotty


At most one in the group who have never made a stand Neon, Bea, Falcon, Roxy.


I think there's only ever one in Kate, Scotty, Mata

And i think Dennis might be the deep wolf and if Sean flips Red I'm going all in on Dennis.

Is that analysis enough for you Sean?

golden, seanzie, Dennis, svs, Lucy of these I think the most likely hit is Sean

Kate Myself and Scotty of these I think the most likely hit is Scotty

Bea, Dennis, Falcon, Neon, Kate, Mata, SVS, Scotty of these I think the most likely hit is Mata followed by Scotty

Neon, Bea, Falcon, Roxy of these I think the most likely hit is a toss up of Roxy/Falcon but honestly I think none

Kate, Scotty, Mata of these I think the most likely hit is Scotty

So logic should dictate that I choose to hit in Sean/ Scotty/Mata

Going back to this again I do note that Soneji didn't vote day 1 and was on Lucy day 2 so they should be added to Neon, Bea, Falcon, Roxy, Soneji

In this instance I think the most likely hit is Soneji and that they are far more likely than anyone else in this list so my PoE today is looking

Sean/ Scotty/Mata/Soneji.

I won't vote outside this.

Why was splints not even included in your data collection? Like, she was never in any of your cluster groups. Why is that?

For the same reason Soneji wasn't until it was pointed out to me.

People who didn't vote on one of the days didn't get moved into groups because I didn't see their name twice.

And i didn't notice.

So i will amend that

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:57 am

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:15 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:07 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:15 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:15 am

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:28 am D1:

Wilgz (6): marmot, golden, seanzie, Dennis, svs, Lucy

Seanzie (5): Kate, Wilgz, Neon, Sabi, Scotty

Splints (1): Bea

Golden (1): Falcon

Roxy (1): Roxy





D2:

Sabi (7): Sean, Kate, Scotty, Golden, Mata, Lucy, SVS

Lucy (3): Splints, Dennis, Soneji

Golden (1): Sabi

Seanzie (1): Neon

Someji (1): Falcon



Never been wagoned at EoD (8): Bea, Dennis, Falcon, Neon, Kate, Mata, SVS, Scotty

People on both Maj wagons (4): Golden, Sean, SVS, Lucy

People only on Wilgz (1): Dennis

People only on Sabi (3): Kate, Scotty, Mata

People never on the Maj wagon (4): Neon, Bea, Falcon, Roxy

I really like this post. What can we do with it? Neon I'm so glad you're here. Don't worry @S~V~S and @Golden I still fangirl you two topsies but neon has entered the chat...

To go further into what I personally think we can get out of this and what I'm looking at personally when I analyze the raw data

I think there's never more than 1 wolf that votes on both maj wagons so at most there's one in Golden, Sean, SVS, Lucy

I TR SVS and Lucy so I think at most one in Sean and Golden and would you look at that this last page solidified that for me lol. It's possible it's none though.

I think there's 1 on Wilgz at least but probably exactly one unless Sean is wolf. Which is one in golden, seanzie, Dennis, svs, Lucy. Which continues that same trend.

Regardless of Sean's alignment I think there's no more than one in Kate Myself and Scotty and probably exactly one in all scenarios.

I think there's a wolf in the 8 who have never has a vote at EoD which is just duh Level analysis but whatever at least one in Bea, Dennis, Falcon, Neon, Kate, Mata, SVS, Scotty


At most one in the group who have never made a stand Neon, Bea, Falcon, Roxy.


I think there's only ever one in Kate, Scotty, Mata

And i think Dennis might be the deep wolf and if Sean flips Red I'm going all in on Dennis.

Is that analysis enough for you Sean?

golden, seanzie, Dennis, svs, Lucy of these I think the most likely hit is Sean

Kate Myself and Scotty of these I think the most likely hit is Scotty

Bea, Dennis, Falcon, Neon, Kate, Mata, SVS, Scotty of these I think the most likely hit is Mata followed by Scotty

Neon, Bea, Falcon, Roxy of these I think the most likely hit is a toss up of Roxy/Falcon but honestly I think none

Kate, Scotty, Mata of these I think the most likely hit is Scotty

So logic should dictate that I choose to hit in Sean/ Scotty/Mata

Going back to this again I do note that Soneji didn't vote day 1 and was on Lucy day 2 so they should be added to Neon, Bea, Falcon, Roxy, Soneji

In this instance I think the most likely hit is Soneji and that they are far more likely than anyone else in this list so my PoE today is looking

Sean/ Scotty/Mata/Soneji.

I won't vote outside this.

Why was splints not even included in your data collection? Like, she was never in any of your cluster groups. Why is that?

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:56 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:05 am Hey remember when I said don't consolidate on a wagon it's just gonna kill a town we need two competing wagons and than for the 2nd day in a ris we had a run away wagon kill a town.

Yeah i remember when I said that.

I remember when you said we need two competing wagons for info. Did you actually say the bit about ‘it’ll kill town’?

I don’t like statisically likely whataboutism. A wolf can say ‘you’ll kill town’ and then try and get credit for that the next day.

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:53 am

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:12 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:10 pm

Dennis wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:03 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:00 pm

Dennis wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:57 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:54 pm Allow me to explain my frustration a bit

Ever since my wolf game I've been getting called a wolf no matter how hard I obv town. Okay I'm a good wolf I'll say it but that doesn't mean blindly ignore the behavior in front of you. The paranoia is frustrating. At least when Mac said what he said in that quote there was a reason for it I eod things that were decidedly anti town. I haven't here and still I'm being pushed.

But than I'm not even being pushed for MY play I'm being pushed because a new player who didn't like the game subbed out and Sean has decided that automatically makes them a wolf. I don't think you should be allowed to read into anyone but my play. I think subs should be judged on their track record. Sean has spent the last page and a half saying Jack behaved like a new wolf. The fixation on Jack is frustrating especially because I think that's all Sean can say because their reasons for pushing me on my play were weak and they don't hold water. So now I'm forced to defend myself against the mental of a person I am not because Sean is trying to read into their mental state and it is a physical impossibility for me to defend myself on that and Sean knows it.

The fixation on Jack is also ridiculous seeing as how I've said multiple times he didn't like it. @Kate , what are you doing? Help me out here.

I don't feel that neon's behavior has been wolfy. Others feel differently so I was going back to jack to try to sure up my feelings on the slot. I figured who better to try to do that than you and me?

Yeah... that's my point. You know as well as I do Jack wasn't a very willing participant. Having you, who is in practically everyone's towncore, attest that Jack's behavior wasn't influenced by his role would help prove Neon's towniness, no?

I was trying to see if you felt that his behavior would have been different WITH the added pressure of a baddie chatroom. Youre essentially reversing my point.

To be clear: I think if Jack had a baddie role, he would have tried harder because of the pressure of teammates in a chat. Therefore, I find it unlikely Jack was bad.

I appreciate that.

But I'd be remiss if I didn't say I'd rather be judged solely on myself in both cases weather you think Jack was town for his behavior as you do or scum as Sean does.

I think you just think I'm town anyways but I'm just saying it so that I don't look like I have an agenda

In my stupid brain I’ve imagined that jack has moved out of the house and you seamlessly integrated into Kate and Dennis’ family, watching movies curled up on the couch together and you and Dennis fighting over the last Oreo (or whatever it is kids fight over these days)

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:40 am

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:06 am Dennis opening today looks bad. And Lucy hit on some things eod that were bothering me about Dennis yesterday that I was mostly ignoring.

What about it? And I still don't understand what Lucy meant with the whole 'influence' thing. I don't think I've changed anybody's minds on anything if that what you mean, so feel free to keep pushing that.

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:32 am

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:45 pm I think the lesson I am going to learn from this game is fuck contributing

I can just post nothing all game read the thread so nothing randomly exclaim someone town is a wolf lie about it till the thread believes me even though I've done nothing all game and still be town read and hard defended

But when you put in effort and bother to analyze its meaningless.

I appreciate the effort

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:45 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:44 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:35 pm

Dennis wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:14 pm All I have seen from Seanzie in the past 24 hours has been riling up Neon.

Now do you think riling up a player and derailing the thread is town or scum indicator?

He did it to me day one, and I think he’s civ

It’s my experience that 90% of the time this kind of thing is civ/civ.

I agree with this.

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:45 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:58 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:56 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:45 pm I think the lesson I am going to learn from this game is fuck contributing

I can just post nothing all game read the thread so nothing randomly exclaim someone town is a wolf lie about it till the thread believes me even though I've done nothing all game and still be town read and hard defended

But when you put in effort and bother to analyze its meaningless.

I’ve done a metric fuckton of analysing and contributing this game.

You don’t agree with my analysis and contribution therefore you think I’m bad.

Do you think contributing should get a pass?

I'm most certainly talking about Sean the person I've been on for two days

People play different ways, but do you really think level of contribution is a towntell?

S~V~S wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:40 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:25 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:21 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:18 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:13 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:10 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:08 pm

So, I'm town?

That is not even remotely what I've said here but I shouldn't be surprised that you'd continue to misrepresent anything I say.

It isn't what you said, it was a perspective slip. If you thought I was wolf, you wouldn't be complaining that you're working so hard and I'm not and I'm getting town read.

I hate this fucking shit.

I said what I said because I'm fucking annoyed and frustrated it wasn't a fucking slip it's true regardless. If I'm town your wolf I'm wolf your town we are both town or we are both wolf.

My perspective is that I'm doing infinitely more than you and getting treated poorer my alignment and yours means fucking nothing try to find a real reason.

I think maybe you should step away for a moment if you're getting so frustrated that you need to swear so much. I'm not trying to frustrate you, but I am allowed to point out something I think could be a perspective slip.

I swear a lot tbf that's just like my default regardless of emotion. Its like an east coast thing I think lol. I can try to swear less but it's hard to turn off.

You can point it out and I can tell you it's wrong lol. I think perspective slips are another mafia buzz word that are relied on to heavily for their actual value.

I mean trying to come up with ways to defeat or work around it. When someone comes up with an idea, automatically defaulting to “anti town” seems kinda, well, anti town to me.

But we all approach it differently and that’s cool.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:39 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:25 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:21 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:18 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:13 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:10 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:08 pm

So, I'm town?

That is not even remotely what I've said here but I shouldn't be surprised that you'd continue to misrepresent anything I say.

It isn't what you said, it was a perspective slip. If you thought I was wolf, you wouldn't be complaining that you're working so hard and I'm not and I'm getting town read.

I hate this fucking shit.

I said what I said because I'm fucking annoyed and frustrated it wasn't a fucking slip it's true regardless. If I'm town your wolf I'm wolf your town we are both town or we are both wolf.

My perspective is that I'm doing infinitely more than you and getting treated poorer my alignment and yours means fucking nothing try to find a real reason.

I think maybe you should step away for a moment if you're getting so frustrated that you need to swear so much. I'm not trying to frustrate you, but I am allowed to point out something I think could be a perspective slip.

I swear a lot tbf that's just like my default regardless of emotion. Its like an east coast thing I think lol. I can try to swear less but it's hard to turn off.

You can point it out and I can tell you it's wrong lol. I think perspective slips are another mafia buzz word that are relied on to heavily for their actual value.

Okay, I don't mind swearing, I just felt like your tone was escalating, but maybe I misread. Carry on.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:37 pm

Roxy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:21 pm seanzie is not really helping anyone at this point they are hindering the thread imo. Humble as can be. I have read seanzie from D 1 as town. Neon is making me doubt myself. Gonna read back on seanzie.

it's only a hinderance if I'm wrong.