The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:26 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:31 pm Why are we worried about 7v1v1 or whatever, btw? For all we know, Cape or Sloonei already could've been antitown 3ps so there's probably not a third.

7v1v1 is 7 civilians and 1 mafia member per team left.

Oh, derp
Ignore me I thought someone mentioned 3ps

Radishes is right, though, we've had a Landlord floating around for a while without a partner I guess

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:15 pm I'm not staying up to watch myself die.

As far as a legacy goes:

-We're trying to use mechanics to narrow the PoE and we don't even know the mechanics. This is bad.
-We're focusing on vote counts and partner associations when a wolf only had one single partner for a pivotal part of the game when everyone was jostling for position. This means conventional reads are invalid because the usual dynamics (splitting packmates onto different wagons, where one places their mates in their readslists, etc) don't exist. (Side note: I actually hate small games (like 9p) more than multiball for this reason.) This is also bad.

Keep it simple tomorrow.

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine


Good night and good luck.

Self-votes don't even count

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:04 pm maybe it's davos lol

I hope so lol

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:51 pm And I guess fungus crossed on Davos not being an actual player we need to deal with.

Even if it's mafia, I doubt sock puppets count toward parity so I think it's better to hope the owner gets yeeted

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:45 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:28 pm I just went "ooh, cards" and didn't think further than that lmao

This nearly made me send bourbon through my nose.

Lol

If we can get at least two distinct top wagons from your answers, then we have a pair of wagons to choose from at eod. It's better than having any stragglers on unvote or vanity wagons.

@Epignosis @Delta and even @Davos
I want you all to vote GTH who you currently believe is most likely to flip wolf.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:35 pm If I vote Nutella right now I could make it a three-way tie which is a big funny
And someone else could vote me too so we have all Easterners tied :P
Jokes aside, I don't want the day to end on a tie but we really need to just pick someone to vote out
I can volunteer if you want my flip
I just think we're treading water rather than making progress, and the worry I have is that if we keep this up until eod, West Facility has complete control over which of us from East flips. Which might not be a bad thing, as they likely have a higher town ratio, even if they aren't all town. But we're the ones with more knowledge of each other's game so far, because we've been in the East Facility together, and yet we haven't consolidated our votes.

And what this indicates is a lack of town cohesion, which is bad. And looking at the VC, there's a lack of town cohesion on BOTH sides of the thread.

If I vote Nutella right now I could make it a three-way tie which is a big funny
And someone else could vote me too so we have all Easterners tied :P
Jokes aside, I don't want the day to end on a tie but we really need to just pick someone to vote out
I can volunteer if you want my flip
I just think we're treading water rather than making progress, and the worry I have is that if we keep this up until eod, West Facility has complete control over which of us from East flips. Which might not be a bad thing, as they likely have a higher town ratio, even if they aren't all town. But we're the ones with more knowledge of each other's game so far, because we've been in the East Facility together, and yet we haven't consolidated our votes.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:31 pm Why are we worried about 7v1v1 or whatever, btw? For all we know, Cape or Sloonei already could've been antitown 3ps so there's probably not a third.

Another 3p is probably the situation I am least concerned about right now

Why are we worried about 7v1v1 or whatever, btw? For all we know, Cape or Sloonei already could've been antitown 3ps so there's probably not a third.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:27 pm "*genuine in thought.

Not just a means to expand the PoE"

Incomplete thought.

Understood

I just wish I knew his reasoning behind his reads, but I get that I'm not good enough as a player to extrapolate from what probably doesn't need to be said because he thinks it's obvious lol.

I'd actually expect the last wolves to play like 3ps or town because of the whole thing where they do have to solve each other in order to eliminate each other
But I also feel like Delta has even fallen a bit short of that, because he's doing things at his own pace without an urgency to solve
And I'd expect the wolves to be desperate enough by now that they'd want to actually solve
Idk, I guess from their pov they would still want a town misyeet or two before taking each other out cause it would be easier to reach parity, given that there's only one wolf on each team (if even distribution)

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:20 pm FWIW I think last time I saw Delta play like this they were 3p.

Very 3p rangey rn I think.

Yeah, it was in Severance, right? Lol

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:17 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:16 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm Why would I need to preface any statement? Am I not allowed to think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and still post my thoughts anyway?

You are allowed and I'd encourage it, but my question is if you think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' why not say it before hand?

if you are a W, you just get a chance at someone not thinking 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and only need to post after if you do get heat for it. 'Why attract attention to myself' kinda thinking.

You say 'why not say it before hand' like it's some sort of 'gotcha' and I think it's just a style difference or soemthing. I just don't see why I'd need to say it?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm The wagon was a whole three (3) votes. You really think that can't be three town?

And anyway, there are two mafia teams, remember? Two of the mafia wouldn't have known or cared if Lime was on the other team and wouldn't care about positioning in the same way. Lime's one possible teammate wouldn't be able to singlehandedly bolster a counterwagon to save their mate.

Three CAN be town, but those three are including Alison. When it becomes four (including vote recipient) and EVERY other off wagon vote is town it just becomes less likely, ESPECIALLY when a wolf flip occurs.

But, again, we're talking about a wolf team of two, since the other wolf team won't care or worry about the same voting dynamics. Lime was going down - their one single partner is probably more likely to bus and hope for some credit rather than risk being seen as trying to save their partner.


These just feel like weak reasons to find me suspicious, and I'm not saying that makes you scummy because actually if you're town you would be scrounging for reasons to paint me scummy. But you seem to have a lot of conviction it's me for reasoning like this and the reasoning isn't solid imo.

Aye, there is a lot of conviction, but that's because I've only had good results following clear cut wagonomics lines like these, especially when there's 1-2 wolves hiding within them.

I kinda hate that expanding the PoE feels correct, because it also makes me think that my observation of the wagonomics can be wrong.

I also kinda hate expanding the PoE because that's the exact thing that made us lose severance.

But, with you and Nut advocating for it and Nook was also still casing West while alive, the question of "is it more likely that it's just MR/Nut, or DOES the PoE need to actually grow?" becomes very difficult.

I mean, Nook's PoE consisted of Nutella and you, and then whoever voted Porscha in West, but idk if I'd treat those as godreads. He did have some correct calls but I don't necessarily think he was correct on absolutely everything.
It's possible he knew something else was up with West and he just couldn't claim it, but I kinda doubt that since he was just making a broad sweep on the basis that Porscha was locktown (and he said as much in East thread, too, when the threads were still split and we didn't know Porscha had flipped or was going to flip)

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:13 pm Look, in theory (a very questionable theory) we should just shoot into the East and have a 50% chance of hitting correctly.

But if we hit a town (and I can't help but feel we will) then the survivors need to abandon the idea of wolves only being there.

If we hit a town and there turns out to be 2 town and 2 wolves then I don't think we should go straight to hunting in West
Cause hitting a town just means higher chance to hit a wolf next day
(that's not actually how it works, but if it goes from 50% to 67% and you assume pure randomness then yes)

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:07 pm Is a demoralized Nutella mafia with a destroyed team or town I guess woudl be the question for her. Overall she’s played a townie game and is definitely not a landlord.

She could be arbiter, I guess but i recall her hunting pretty evenly

I haven't gotten the impression she's demoralized

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:01 pm So I just did a quick ISO of MR and I don’t like what I see.

They mention the members of Arbitr a lot , he always seems to have some level or suspicion of Falcon and lemon, even voting for them multiple times yet anytime another wagon seemed viable he jumped and always seemed to cast shadow of doubts on those two wagons. Overall there’s definitely some flip flopping there.

He barely mentioned Rico and when he did it was mainly positive.


You flip this with the other mafia team that’s flipped and his views all seemed to have been much more concrete with them suggesting TMI with Red Mafia and not landlords

Eh
That is also almost exactly how I've played, I'm pretty sure
Granted, you're missing the East thread for full context, but that was only 2 days.

My gut is still telling me that nobody in West is mafia tho

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:51 pm What’s delta town meta?

Out of the 5 in west you’ve got

Leetic, epi, me, delta and tsp.

Leetic and Epi have been town reads all game .

I know I’m town.

So either delta or tsp could be mafia, but not both.

I wish I knew
I've thought he was scummy as town and towny as a 3p
So frankly, idk

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:50 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:49 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:47 pm

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:42 pm What’re the chance Nutella accidentally shot mafia and decided to roll with it and play that up

I don't believe she'd accidentally shoot her partner, for sure
I mean, I was in a game once where my partner purposely vigged me and then slanked until endgame off the towncred and the players rioted and faulted the host for letting her shoot me
But that's not exactly a normal mafia play, and in that previous game, I was getting wagoned so it was justified since I would've died anyway

Or did you mean if the vig had like a low success rate and she accidentally succeeded?

I’m thinking more a rebound/vest style thing.

The other option is it was just someone on the other team

You mean if she shot somewhere else and the shot bounced to Lemon?
Idk, based on her reads i could easily believe she would intentionally shoot Lemon as her original target.

Cause she was pushing Lemon prior to that
If the shot on lemon came out of nowhere, maybe I'd think longer on it
But there was a history of a scumread there

I feel like it's not really worth thinking too deeply about

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:47 pm

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:42 pm What’re the chance Nutella accidentally shot mafia and decided to roll with it and play that up

I don't believe she'd accidentally shoot her partner, for sure
I mean, I was in a game once where my partner purposely vigged me and then slanked until endgame off the towncred and the players rioted and faulted the host for letting her shoot me
But that's not exactly a normal mafia play, and in that previous game, I was getting wagoned so it was justified since I would've died anyway

Or did you mean if the vig had like a low success rate and she accidentally succeeded?

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:42 pm What’re the chance Nutella accidentally shot mafia and decided to roll with it and play that up

I don't believe she'd accidentally shoot her partner, for sure
I mean, I was in a game once where my partner purposely vigged me and then slanked until endgame off the towncred and the players rioted and faulted the host for letting her shoot me
But that's not exactly a normal mafia play, and in that previous game, I was getting wagoned so it was justified since I would've died anyway

I just went "ooh, cards" and didn't think further than that lmao

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:26 pm Has everyone picked a Tarot card by this point?

I actually regret picking one. As PoE I shouldn't have claimed anything and taken the hated stack instead.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:19 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:15 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:04 pm What I'm struggling with is the fact that in a vacuum I'd much rather vote Delta or Sig or even TSP or Epi, but I'm instead supposed to focus on a PoE of 3 others whom I largely find nothing wrong with.

SO, if we expand the PoE, who and why?

Delta I kinda get.

Sig I still think is town in spite of certain thread entrances made today.

Epi based on Falc/DM treatment I had an eye raised for but nothing more as this does feel like town Epi.

I'll even toss Leetic in there as Leetic's vote on me following what looks like busywork came off as really off to me (I acknowlege that there's a large bit of omgussy bias in here, but after several unexplained suspicions of me, I think my omgussy bias is at least not worth throwing away immediately.)

I'd probably go Delta first, having not really looked back into any of them recently. He's kind of here but not really pushing much, promising to do things but then not really following through.

Sig I remember thinking had possible associations with falcon, but don't quiz me because that was ages ago that I thought that.

TSP doing TSP things could really go either way.

Leetic is working hard but I think they're the archetype to do that as a wolf trying to solo it? Like most would get demoralised, but a rare few step up their game. And they seem much less abrasive than I expect from my very limited meta knowledge.

Epi seems fine on the surface but the Falcon defence could definitely be a thing. I dunno.

Yeah, I also thought that about Sig on N0, but I cooled on it because so many people in the East thread said they thought Sig was town, plus Sig has felt fine in this thread after the merge. And I think we can rule out Sig being a landlord because I believe Abbi was trying to pocket him early on, during N0 (see, I did get some use out of backreading there).

Delta i think has been tonally fine but I've heard a lot of contrary opinions on what went on in West.

TSP i commented on above.

Leetic has been a little less abrasive than he was on N0 but I don't necessarily think it's indicative of alignment. At least he's been putting effort into the game.

I don't think I see Epi as an arbiter. He made a whole ass case on how I fit exactly as an arbiter because of interactions, and I doubt he'd dig that deep just to throw dirt at me if he knew my flip wouldn't clear him.

I actually think TSP gunning for Nutella when she's not the most popular or likely wolf candidate is towny from him

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:12 pm I’d love to just vote Wilgy and call it a day but as I’m reading up hes definitely within his town meta

I wish I had meta on any of the other people in East Facility tbh. I've seen nut and Wilgy as town but I don't believe I've ever played with MR before, and I've never seen any of them wolf. So instead I'm just running in circles trying to figure out who's solving with town intent and who's solving with an agenda. Problem is, both remaining wolves are likely legitimately scoping each other out because they also need to kill each other.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm What would I hate more:

voting in the East and losing because we followed an unsubstantiated belief about mech despite my misgivings

or

voting in the West and losing because obviously it was evenly split wolf teams and I just haaad to go renegade

Yep, same dilemma here
I don't know what the better answer is, but on the bright side, if you vote me out today I won't have to think about it more

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:06 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:01 pm Also, what makes me unlikely to be a landlord? I don't think I've done anything to clear myself in that regard, other than that one reply I got from Brad, but Nutella thinks it makes me look more partnered. Meaning, there's nothing clearing there.

The timing of your Brad vote would need to be an absolutely brutal bus vote.

Nut's is only alittle less brutal.

I once gambited as scum and voted to tie my partner with a town wagon and we flipped my partner, and I got falsely cleared off it
It wasn't Brad, but I've been known to bus him pretty hard when he gets frozen. Nutella is right, the vote has no weight on my alignment.
I still don't think Brad would've thrown a partner in his town list, though, and I don't think landlord!Nutella would insist that he did, knowing that my flip would then implicate her on her own word.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:04 pm What I'm struggling with is the fact that in a vacuum I'd much rather vote Delta or Sig or even TSP or Epi, but I'm instead supposed to focus on a PoE of 3 others whom I largely find nothing wrong with.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:04 pm Like the four of us can't even find a consensus amongst ourselves. This is silly.

I'd rather vote within the East Facility because of probability reasons, but I get what you mean. You'd think at the very least, the minimum of two town among us plus one of the wolves would consolidate on a wagon who might flip other wolf.
Idk though, I think Epi had a decent point that Nutella suddenly widening the PoE supposedly out of paranoia was a bit sketchy. But you did it before Nutella, and Epi didn't have the same comment on you. And I also agreed with Nutella that it's worth consideration, so that would put all three of us at fault in Epi's eyes (he thinks I'm scum anyway so tbh maybe he already factored that in).

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:03 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:48 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:43 pm Nut, Leetic, Sig, MR have all expressed 'I guess W just has to be Wilgy' without anything else.

Hell, MR who's likely the wolf with reasons I've put out that no one will even question or interact with for some reason, has barely interacted with me and has decided to just take the omgus route following me pushing him.

It really just leaves me asking, is yeeting me just easy and that's why it's preferable?

Yeah but Nutella is still voting me, not you

Yeah, but Nut coming into the thread stating the suspicion without any other data was still weird following the Nook/Wilgy Preflip.

Nut went from 1 and 1 in Nook/Wilgy to I guess it's just Wilgy/Radish without much else and in spite of how little both of these make.
Nook was trying to eat LemonFairy for two cycles and Falc had forgotten them, thus were likely only landlord.
I'm probably self viewing myself incorrectly, but with my interactions with Falc, I'd think that the Wilgy Arbiter theory to be thin, thus I'm likely only landlord as well.

Radish for the same reason, and what I put previous, is likely not an Arbiter.

So Nut's preflipping and suspicions are like, Landlord, Landlord, Landlord and that's why it doesn't make sense.

Ah, I see what you mean now.
But wasn't I doing the same thing? I'm pretty sure I also said I thought Radishes/you were the inner PoE, and by your logic that would also mean that I'd be pointing at two potential landlord candidates. Granted, I actually doubt it's both of you now, and I'm not even sure if it's one of you or neither. But I came into the day operating off straight PoE without thinking too critically about who was most likely on whose team.

Also, what makes me unlikely to be a landlord? I don't think I've done anything to clear myself in that regard, other than that one reply I got from Brad, but Nutella thinks it makes me look more partnered. Meaning, there's nothing clearing there.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:58 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:46 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:43 pm Nut, Leetic, Sig, MR have all expressed 'I guess W just has to be Wilgy' without anything else.

Hell, MR who's likely the wolf with reasons I've put out that no one will even question or interact with for some reason, has barely interacted with me and has decided to just take the omgus route following me pushing him.

It really just leaves me asking, is yeeting me just easy and that's why it's preferable?

I'm here if you want to get a back and forth going, I'm going through past games of the current wolf flips o/

which is pretty boring ;_; but at the very least I want to have a table of 'arbiter/landlords' and try work off that.

Evenings are my main opportunity to sit down and go through things so I'm lagging behind regardless, so some livetime solving would be great for me too \o/

I mean, I keep trying to throw it out there and discuss how my brain is working around the MR suspicion I have, do you have thoughts there?

In terms of thread PoE we have WWA, Nut, MR.

While I don't think MR could be an Arbiter I do think there's a high chance for Landlord based on polling.

I haven't explored WWA's likelyhood for Arbiter, but have seen others express that there's a firm possibility. WWA doesn't make sense as a Landlord.

I haven't explored Nutella's likelyhood for Arbiter, nor have I really seen others express it, so I'd almost write it off. Nutella has higher equity as landlord, but I still think it's unlikely. What keeps me circling back to Nutella is the weird preflipping done and Nook's read of the slot.

So,
Arbiters: WWA, Nut
LL: MR

Huh, if anything I would've written off Nut as an arbiter. I don't think she would've been so insistent on townreading falcon and then push me for pushing her based on that, if she were teamed with falcon. Plus she had fairly consistent suspicion on Lemon.

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:52 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:51 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:49 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:48 pm I'm super sick and super tired but I still wanna do some more thinking and solving while I can
Not sure if I'll be around for eod but I'd like to make use of my time while I'm here

get well soon \o/

same thing to you, if you have any thoughts you want to run through I'm around if you want to talk

Did you get a chance to look through West Facility interactions yet?
If not, it's fine, I think we're yeeting in East today anyway but I've kinda run dry on things to look for there because I've gone through the thread several times already, so I thought maybe I should put my energy towards solving the other half of the game just for good measure, in case I flip today.

kinda what I'm running through with looking through prior games, but I can grab a summary for you now & then run back over them when I'm done with these \o/

Sure, thanks!

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:49 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:48 pm I'm super sick and super tired but I still wanna do some more thinking and solving while I can
Not sure if I'll be around for eod but I'd like to make use of my time while I'm here

get well soon \o/

same thing to you, if you have any thoughts you want to run through I'm around if you want to talk

Did you get a chance to look through West Facility interactions yet?
If not, it's fine, I think we're yeeting in East today anyway but I've kinda run dry on things to look for there because I've gone through the thread several times already, so I thought maybe I should put my energy towards solving the other half of the game just for good measure, in case I flip today.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:43 pm Nut, Leetic, Sig, MR have all expressed 'I guess W just has to be Wilgy' without anything else.

Hell, MR who's likely the wolf with reasons I've put out that no one will even question or interact with for some reason, has barely interacted with me and has decided to just take the omgus route following me pushing him.

It really just leaves me asking, is yeeting me just easy and that's why it's preferable?

Yeah but Nutella is still voting me, not you

I'm super sick and super tired but I still wanna do some more thinking and solving while I can
Not sure if I'll be around for eod but I'd like to make use of my time while I'm here

I'm ngl I feel like voting Wilgy is not the way to go anymore

I'll stop doomerposting and find something else to do

I'm ngl I thought eod was in like an hour from now cause I was used to it being at 7 pm Eastern time, and forgot again that I'm not on eastern time anymore and that 7 pm here is not eod

I have enough time to do some more digging before then

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 12:34 pm I just have this weird expectation that Davos is gonna pop outta nowhere at EoD, go "arrr" and probably vote me

Primarily because I have no idea anymore who the puppetmaster is, assuming they're a player in the game, but it's not me so I'm probably their safest vote

I just have this weird expectation that Davos is gonna pop outta nowhere at EoD, go "arrr" and probably vote me

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 12:26 pm Well
I don't love that Davos hasn't returned in like two days
I say you guys might wanna do something about that and root out the puppetmaster after I die
I don't think we need to waste today on a sock puppet, but if Davos's owner is happy with the threadstate then they're probably a wolf after all

That last part I take back, the threadstate is very weird but there's only 2 votes on me. So there's ample room for wagons to change, meaning wolves will probably still be on edge.

Well
I don't love that Davos hasn't returned in like two days
I say you guys might wanna do something about that and root out the puppetmaster after I die
I don't think we need to waste today on a sock puppet, but if Davos's owner is happy with the threadstate then they're probably a wolf after all

It's not me. But atp i don't know who would be a better option, anyway.