The Syndicate

Wow way lmao

tutuu I didn’t get the chance to express my love and appreciation since I was postcapped but good job in the thread yesterday, it helped me confirm you are basically locktown. Mafia will never expose mech townslips.

@staypositivefriend

Did Jack’s (non-existent) response to you asking him to expand on his worldview impress you or can we be normal and just kill him today or?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:40 pm So after seeing Fingersplints flip, my thoughts are

1. Some of the top players are likely bad to create that big of a wagon on LHF that fast and late.

2. Except idk if that is fully correct because Lucy was campaigning hard for it

3. Since we have an unkillable IC, we need to find a way to effectively play around that. I don't think it is in town's best interest to turn the game into "pocket Lucy, sheep Lucy". This is no judgement on Lucy, just a fact that it isn't a good way to play.

The issue is that the wagons were basically static AF for all of D1 and they weren’t moving off to encore-created wagons and it didn’t move until people like Max/SPF started moving on them and then Lucy and the rest.

The likelihood that you’re correct is probably fairly high. I’d like to think that all the good players in the game are good because that’s how I’m reading most of them atm but that’s unlikely. So this game will probably be really hard.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:50 pm Roxy has way more scum equity than Jack.

Disagree, but im on board for now.

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:52 pm If alison is mafia i feel like 2 or maybe 3 of the people vehemently pushing her are also mafia

Looking at jack and sig

A possible explanation for the behavior "alison maf, i aint moving, nu-uh, nothing else exists i put my hands on my ears lalalalala" is an orchestrated bus, maybe alison has exams or something she always has exams :P

(I still have an unconfident townread on her, just exploring an option)

Do you think that if that is the team, Alison is the one they would be bussing? I find it unlikely but I’m not really in touch with the meta of the players involved.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:00 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:58 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:54 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:52 pm If alison is mafia i feel like 2 or maybe 3 of the people vehemently pushing her are also mafia

Looking at jack and sig

A possible explanation for the behavior "alison maf, i aint moving, nu-uh, nothing else exists i put my hands on my ears lalalalala" is an orchestrated bus, maybe alison has exams or something she always has exams :P

(I still have an unconfident townread on her, just exploring an option)

Do you think that if that is the team, Alison is the one they would be bussing? I find it unlikely but I’m not really in touch with the meta of the players involved.

I cant tell you that far/deep, this was just my solution when i thought to solve the problem "whats the reason behind the pressure on alison that i cant understand/justify (coming from jack and sig maybe seanzie, rondo, forgot who else)"

From roxy, dennis, finger, neon - i understand and justify it, its the emotional turbulation having an impact, so i dont think its w/w there

It's not a bus, they are just outing to kill me. It's why none of my voters can give a coherent reason why I am mafia and it's why I feel great about the game because the mafia team has overextended way too much and it's hard to imagine the game ending well for them unless you guys totally throw after my flip (in which case it's on you).

Don’t worry I’m like the best late-game villager ever.

FWIW I will of course adjust Alison’s wolf equity in my head up slightly but only based on the universal increase that occurs when a VT is yeeted.

It’s not like Alison caused the lynch to happen. The people who voted for Fingers were entirely people who were widely townread and not voting for her.

So anyone pushing the narrative that since we had a town flip, we must kill Alison should be treated with much suspicion.

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:04 pm FWIW I will of course adjust Alison’s wolf equity in my head up slightly but only based on the universal increase that occurs when a VT is yeeted.

It’s not like Alison caused the lynch to happen. The people who voted for Fingers were entirely people who were widely townread and not voting for her.

So anyone pushing the narrative that since we had a town flip, we must kill Alison should be treated with much suspicion.

If you disagree with this and are voting Alison tell us who the wolves are on the fingers wagon.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:07 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:06 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:04 pm FWIW I will of course adjust Alison’s wolf equity in my head up slightly but only based on the universal increase that occurs when a VT is yeeted.

It’s not like Alison caused the lynch to happen. The people who voted for Fingers were entirely people who were widely townread and not voting for her.

So anyone pushing the narrative that since we had a town flip, we must kill Alison should be treated with much suspicion.

If you disagree with this and are voting Alison tell us who the wolves are on the fingers wagon.

Spoken like someone who is acutely aware the Fingersplints wagon was nearly entirely pure lol.

The game stats is essentially exactly the same except we have one fewer town.

I’m not sure why you think this should flip out worldviews.

Dennis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:08 pm What caused the sudden change from "Don't kill Alison this is just how she plays" to "Let's get Alison's head. NOW."

MacDougall’s self-doubt started creeping in after the flip.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:12 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:10 pm

Dennis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:08 pm What caused the sudden change from "Don't kill Alison this is just how she plays" to "Let's get Alison's head. NOW."

MacDougall’s self-doubt started creeping in after the flip.

No it's because I'm mafia and by doing this I get to bury town Alison but in the exact way she expects me to do so as town, so I get to kill her for free. It's a real dream come true.

Ur not fcking mafia, I am.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:13 pm God damn it I made a terrible mistake. Fingersplints was such a bad chop day 1 lol. I foolishly put my read over the health of the game.

They were a perfectly cromulent chop.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:15 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:14 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:13 pm God damn it I made a terrible mistake. Fingersplints was such a bad chop day 1 lol. I foolishly put my read over the health of the game.

They were a perfectly cromulent chop.

In the sense of likelihood to flip mafia sure but not in the sense of making day 1 good for retrospective analysis.

Yeah but there was no NK so the wolves didn’t profit from the day. It’s essentially the same game state.

Feel free to hop on the wagon with all the people you thought were sketchy I guess.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:18 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:58 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:54 pm Alison is doing a play by play exact replica of King of the Hill. I can't get over that lol its exactly the same.

Like

search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&t=24 ... &start=250

Exactly the same. Every single aspect of it.

I kinda town read the switch off on Kate but than I remembered that a very similar thing happened to the wolf team when I subbed out in KotH mafia for mental health reasons and they abandoned the Neon push because they thought my subbing out was town indicative because of the way it was done.

This is what I’ve been saying. It’s grossly blatant to the point when I’d actually agree with Tutuu on the bussing thing if I didn’t independently townread Sig and myself.

hate this post regardless of alison's alignment

[VOTE: jack] aubergine

Yes but the only reason you hate it is because you have a brain and Jack is a wolf, did you consider that??

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:20 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:18 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:15 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:14 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:13 pm God damn it I made a terrible mistake. Fingersplints was such a bad chop day 1 lol. I foolishly put my read over the health of the game.

They were a perfectly cromulent chop.

In the sense of likelihood to flip mafia sure but not in the sense of making day 1 good for retrospective analysis.

Yeah but there was no NK so the wolves didn’t profit from the day. It’s essentially the same game state.

Feel free to hop on the wagon with all the people you thought were sketchy I guess.

Tutuu was like my strongest townread butthead.

Mine too. Tutuu and I are gay together now.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:20 pm It is on this page that people are finding out the difference between playing mafia optimally and playing mafia passionately.

Listen if you yeet yourself out of this game and leave me here with 12 potatoes I will make angry copypastas about it postgame.

I woke like to hear opinions on Neon because I am completely lost (wolf signal).

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:26 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:24 pm I woke like to hear opinions on Neon because I am completely lost (wolf signal).

Woke soft, Baudib is a member of the liberals

Also I think the most important thing for me to do the rest of this day phase is to sort out the masses of weirdo slots that have done nothing and placed votes essentially at random but they can't all be mafia so I have to try to town clear some of them somehow to really lock in a win. Examples include Sig, Bereft, Falcon, Wilgy.

I like Bereft a decent amount due to him actively calling out legitimately scummy posts from people who weren’t drawing any attention that felt genuine. Sig/Falcon/Wilgy can go imo.

Bereft, if you keep making awkward posts talking about yourself I’m going to rescind all the villa points I assigned you.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:38 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:31 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:28 pm @lucy -

i think it's possible that this might be the same situation as d3 in da bois invitational but this time alison is you

and im in the same position too, but lacking confidence to assert the position on the chance that im wrong

do you get what im saying?

What situation would that be?

in that game, lucy was a villager who was tunneled by the rest of the game to the extent that she was convinced it was optimal to die, and she spent the entire day reiterating that she needed to die for the sake of the game

i recognized that lucy was playing in her town meta in that game but i wasnt confident enough to meaningfully defend her for various reasons, mainly being the confidence that other people i townread had about alison being mafia

my thought was that the dynamics here are effectively the same, even if i am considerably less sure about your alignment than i was about lucy's alignment in that game. just something i was thinking about

I think I've spoken about this before but I think falling on your sword can be an effective strategy under certain conditions and I've done it often enough. Sometimes I'm totally right and sometimes I'm totally wrong but I'll never turn down a chance to make the outcome of the game rely on myself because it's better than relying on random people.

It can be ineffective if people won't actually sheep you after you flip town, but in this case I think there's a good chance I'll be flipped (lucy, tutuu and Mac are all loud and influential voices who have expressed a commitment to sheeping my legacy if I flip town). If you think my legacy is wrong then now is a good time to convince me otherwise.

I realize you have this particular view and have been the object of so much discussion you want to just prove you’re right, but you’re kinda overlooking the fact that Jack is far more outed than Roxy, and Creature is probably just a villager.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:28 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:15 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:04 pm Howdy ladies and theys

I read the first two pages. Can someone give me the tl;dr of what happened and who should I iso?

Hello Sabi.

Day 1 came down to a tvt between Alison and Fingersplints. Alison's main suspects were Roxy and Kate ie. you. Fingersplints largely got pushed to a counterwagon of Alison by me and SPF. I thoughy FS was very wolfy and also slanky.

Neon seems to have been randomly killed due to the tower.

I see. What made people push Alison to be a wagon?

What are the other thoughts so far? Who do I need to iso?

A bunch of sketchy people were voting her for terrible reasons on D1 despite the fact that she was super villagery, then people wanted to flip her D2 due to tinfoils and “resolve the wagons” etc.
fwiw she hated your slot early on but then decided Kate had townslipped.

sig wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:36 pm

Baudib1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:31 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:28 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:15 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:04 pm Howdy ladies and theys

I read the first two pages. Can someone give me the tl;dr of what happened and who should I iso?

Hello Sabi.

Day 1 came down to a tvt between Alison and Fingersplints. Alison's main suspects were Roxy and Kate ie. you. Fingersplints largely got pushed to a counterwagon of Alison by me and SPF. I thoughy FS was very wolfy and also slanky.

Neon seems to have been randomly killed due to the tower.

I see. What made people push Alison to be a wagon?

What are the other thoughts so far? Who do I need to iso?

A bunch of sketchy people were voting her for terrible reasons on D1 despite the fact that she was super villagery, then people wanted to flip her D2 due to tinfoils and “resolve the wagons” etc.
fwiw she hated your slot early on but then decided Kate had townslipped.

@sabie12 first welcome!

Second I’m not directly quoting you so tagging you.

Third I’m gonna disagree with this thought,

Allison was playing a sketchy game and the only people clearing her weren’t being read as civ. She also received a lot of votes day 2 meaning their was a consensus and their was a last minute CFD onto splints to save her (who flipped civ)


From a reading perspective I’d probably try to read the first like 3-5 pages and then the last 3-5 pages see what pops up and ISO based off that. Also whoever you’re most familiar with id ISO since you can make a meta read

Allison wasn’t sketchy in the least. She was taking aggressive stances but also re-evaluating and evolving her reads. The people voting for her were mostly terrible like you.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:40 pm So should I iso Roxy, Jack, Mac, spf, sig, who else?

These are names I'm seeing thrown around?

Porscha, Falcon.

Some people think Creature has been off meta and he was one of Alison’s legacy W reads.

Dennis wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 9:40 pm Ok so LHF is like, taking annoying pop shots that people should know is NAI but are sussing you for anyways? Nifty

No LHF is used to describe players in the game who appear to be easy to push without much resistance.

Ok so @Seanzie I guess we would like you to clarify. Do you have mechanical information that indicate Mac and Jack are wolves?

SPF:
The other wagons most of D1 were me and Creature and there was incredibly strong resistance to voting anyone else until Mac voted for Splints.

Creature why is Falcon town?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:06 pm if creature roxy sig and jack contains more than one villager then this game is probably a loss

It’ll be OK.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:16 pm Hello everyone.

EoD seemed like a clusterfuck.

Splints was a bad wagon, there was literally no data to gain from that last min wagon.

Wrong. Splints was a perfectly cromulent wagon. Allison was a bad wagon.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:13 pm How would folks interpret Wilgy being re-directed onto a player and nothing negative happening to that player?

Important note to all in case you missed it: night actions were randomized due to the Tower being played.

I have a readslist I'll post in a second that I wrote up before Neon's flip but I'll just post it anyway because not much has changed based on posting today. I'll ignore various softs and stuff and reiterate that night targets were randomized.

Like Sean is obviously softing something but Jack is a wolf for a lot of other reasons so like, fine. His comment on Mac eating villagers left and right is...interesting and it's technically not incorrect.

This game isn't really ideal for me because I make reads by interacting with people and I like to point out small details in posts and I can't really do that here; ideally I'd need like 500 posts in a 48-hour phase but oh well. The worldwide Mafia recession has hit everyone hard.

Town core

Baudib1 - Shining beacon of villageryness. I'm out of my (vast, extravagant) wolfrange. You don't have to believe this, but in my previous game (Floor is Lava), I was universally townread and I repeatedly said that people in the game were clearing others too lightly because I was quite squarely in my wolfrange. This game is the opposite. Most of my time in the abbreviated D2 was spent trying to get people to not vote LDFO villager Alison for info. I am pretty sure many of the people voting Alison on D1 were mafia and many of the people voting her D2 were town. As a wolf I just powerwolf and get villagers yeeted. 

My plan this game is to mow down a big pile of wolves while hard-defending 1-2 and killing off a couple villagers along the way; then lose an F5 with Lucy, Creature, Sabi and Porscha.

Lucy- Town Oracle -  no reason to doubt this. She telegraphed PR in her first post of the game (I called it out as having zealot vibes) and she confidently believes that people should listen to her.
Tutuuu - so town it hurts

Mac/SPF - they're playing exactly like good players who randed town should play. Nothing amazingly clearing and there are some concerns their games so far can quite comfortably fit into a good player having a great wolfgame range but nothing worth tinfoiling on yet.  
If any of the above people are wolves we will just lose the game.


Pretty town
Rondo - lots of stuff that could be said here but I don't feel like it. Call it town entitlement.
Dennis - I played great as a wolf in my first forum mafia game, so I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Dennis is a wolf in his fourth game here. He has inconsistencies in thought process and some weird reads but  so do  a lot of people. Mafia is hard and it seems like he's just playing honestly.
*Creature - Super likely to just be town and he's playing perfectly fine/well and should definitely not be on the block today or tomorrow. This advice will be ignored.
Bereft - out of all the people who have been described as being UTR, Bereft has some the most genuine-seeming reactions.

Seanzie - same as Bereft but slightly less so.

These are leans more than super confident reads, one of these will flip evil quite often. If it's more than one well lolvariance or I suck.

IDFK
Sabi - Alison cited a towntell and I tend to believe it but her game is pretty devoid of content.
Neon - Not playing like she's on a team or partnered but not exactly playing in a townsiding manner. Her beef with Alison could easily be T/T but like, her rhetoric fits a much less experienced player. Clearly I'm having issues with cultural differences with multiple people in this game so maybe it's me. But IME this is as often a skilled player effectively using arguments they don't believe to push an agenda as it is a difference of views. If she's town I expect her game to improve dramatically from this point onward.
Porscha - no strong feelings, just actively null.

Here be dragons - minimum 3 wolves her I think
Falcon
Wilgy
Sig
Roxy

Jack

*conspicuously yet unconsciously slipped and put my scum partner who I defended smack in the middle of a reads list.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:57 pm Baudib neon is a dead town

yeah I said I wrote it up before the Neon flip.

Welp. Mistakes were made.

This should be considered a mafia shutout tbh.

Mafia surely the better team and should win this 95%

But they probably could have all zero-posted after Day 3 and won because the town was that awful.

I'll take my share of the blame for stupidly getting modkilled (mostly an innocent mistake but still).

thanks for game Daisy. Ban the villagers!