The Syndicate

Bass_the_Clever wrote:

Epignosis wrote:"Hinted."

I thought I read that she hinted that.

Well, if that's hinting, then I'm going to hint that I'm currently drinking beer.

Hey, I'm currently drinking beer.

"Hinted."

Matahari wrote:

Boomslang wrote:

Matahari wrote:
This deserves a response, and I have to leave soon, so I'll answer this. By 'half-joke, I mean I knew ppl would say "su-u-u-r-r-r-e", or pick it apart. By half-question I meant in the event that Ukita was trying to stop the lynch for real, know matter which person he believed in, then fine, I expressed appreciation. I would not try saving anyone if I were him, unless there are secrets I am not aware of, that make his role a bit safer than it sounds. No matter what we can or can't say, I 100% believe there are some secrets in this game.

Which leads to my thinking that someone might have used a save on me yesterday to cement the idea that I was a bad role, or, as I was thinking earlier, before MP posted, someone may have been planning to save FZ. Mafia knows how to use secret things (apparently in this game, it would be from prizes) But when I got home yesterday I had a ton of stuff to catch up on in the thread, I skimmed a bit, and posted some, then went back to read everything better. There was more than 10 pages of posts. I didn't know anything about more things being revealed, but I picked up on that later, and I still believe this game has secret stuff going on. You don't have to agree with that, its just what I believe. My role is not unlynchable, and I think some really smart ppl pulled off a stunt yesterday.

I think that answers the second and third question, they are kind of tied together, because I'm basing everything on the fact that I don't know what is going on. I think I've missed a few posts from ppl, so I promise I will try and address them when I get home. Not sure what time that will be, it Depends on how long it is t

Mata, I'mma cut you with Occam's Razor. What's more likely? That you've been the "victim" of some crazy baddie scheme to save your butt, or that you are yourself bad and were unlynchable? More importantly, why would the baddies bother to save you unless you were bad? They want the civs dead.

Exactly. They want the civs dead. If they can set up a civ with some kind of lynch save, then that civ makes a perfect patsy. A few ppl make cases against someone and use a lynch save=unlynchable baddie. If you make me look like a shinigami or a kira now, then as soon as you think I can be lynched, you will do it because its been 'generally accepted' that I'm bad. You pretending that you don't get that sounds pretty shady to me. But go with Occam's Razor, if you're a misguided civ, what else can you do. If you're not, we can all laugh when the game is over about how sneaky the baddies were.

That's an atrocious strategy if you are bad. You use that save to keep yourself or your teammates around, not protect a civilian from a lynch in hopes you can set her up the next Day. That's inefficient. That's uncertain. That's a waste of time. And it's a waste of a resource (the save). No ma'am: You let the civilian get lynched so you can keep working those numbers down.

In this game, has Turnip Head been lynched a second time? Has Metalmarsh89? No one has been lynched a second time. There is no rationale for Mafia burning a save to keep you around.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:Mata not being lynched looks really bad because like Boom said why would the baddies set you up?

Matahari wrote:Was it ever revealed that no prizes were awarded from the day 0 poll?

Was it ever revealed that this game isn't really Mulholland Drive Mafia?

Ever notice how "Shenanigans" is similar to "Shinigami?"

If I were Ukita, I would go find some sprinkles because I would be straight up vanilla this game.

If you save someone, you could die at the risk of saving someone bad. And the person you DID save would end up looking suspicious anyway.

Yep, sprinkles.

Matahari wrote:zero

*Envelope opens*

How many people should be trusting you and FZ.?

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:I am unable to do the Roger Rabbit post right now because of reasons. Just want to chime in here:

Black Rock wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Where did her boo suspicion go? Where did her llama suspicion go? B-A-D-D-I-E

My Boo suspicion was in the Fing post you quoted. If you are so sure then bloody well lynch me and be done with it. I could explain myself, but not to you, you don't care what I say anyways.

You said you don't trust boo, but you voted Epi. Why is that?

Cause for days I have been reading Epig say vote FZ, vote FZ. I don't think she's bad and I think it's obvious she isn't. So I think he is and wants her lynched for a reason. I believe he does know something more and I believe it's in HIS best interest to lynch FZ. I do not think it's the rest of ours best interest at this point. Therefore he must be bad.

Logic folks. I need someone who (according to her own claim) can't be lynched lynched to win. Guess I'm screwed.

You are going to learn a very important lesson, son. Logic is not all it's cracked up to be :P

No, logic IS all it's cracked up to be. It isn't foolproof, but in a game of mafia, it isn't meant to be. I'll continue to use logic and evidence, and I will vote for those unfortunate souls as such thinking dictates. I will never resort to "feels." That's bullshit. Too many players use that as a device for "Oh gee, I don't really know what to say."

Sorry "mom." I won't be learning any lessons, important or otherwise.

Thank you for bringing us NEARer to the truth, MP.

Eleventy twelve according to most.

I'm bored.

I am unable to do the Roger Rabbit post right now because of reasons. Just want to chime in here:

Black Rock wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Where did her boo suspicion go? Where did her llama suspicion go? B-A-D-D-I-E

My Boo suspicion was in the Fing post you quoted. If you are so sure then bloody well lynch me and be done with it. I could explain myself, but not to you, you don't care what I say anyways.

You said you don't trust boo, but you voted Epi. Why is that?

Cause for days I have been reading Epig say vote FZ, vote FZ. I don't think she's bad and I think it's obvious she isn't. So I think he is and wants her lynched for a reason. I believe he does know something more and I believe it's in HIS best interest to lynch FZ. I do not think it's the rest of ours best interest at this point. Therefore he must be bad.

Logic folks. I need someone who (according to her own claim) can't be lynched lynched to win. Guess I'm screwed.

FZ. wrote:But it didn't seem like he was lynchable. Why waste a vote?

I'm going to yank my hair out.

Fortunately I have other things I have to do right now.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

The Sockface Death Note Mafia Trivia Game Show

Question 4:
How many members of Yotsuba have the same win condition?

This question remains unanswered.

Six

Correct.

Six members of Yotsuba have the same win condition. Higuchi's win condition differs from his teammates.

You may not answer any more questions. A new question is forthcoming.

Baller.

Someone please say "Six."

MovingPictures07 wrote:

The Sockface Death Note Mafia Trivia Game Show

Question 3:
How many players have already satisfied their win conditions?

1

DharmaHelper wrote:

Black Rock wrote:Hi FZ, I'm here. I've been following along. I was sick on Monday and busy yesterday and got distracted by the other game.

I don't think FZ is bad. I've been sitting on the fence trying to decide if I believe FZ or Epig. I believe FZ now. I don't think Epig is a detective and I don't believe he's even trying to pretend to be good. Is he a Kira? Maybe? I am going to vote Epig today. He's the one I feel the most strongly of right now.

I have been back and forth with Boo all game. Right now I don't trust him.

I'm taking my 5 year old out for a special dinner now, I'll be back later and I'll put some real time into this game tonight. I'm voting now though.

KNEW IT

What did you know?

The "detectives" in this game:

"Well, my gut is telling me that the man who stole your TV..."

"It wasn't a man. It was a woman. I saw her-"

"Yes, but you see, my feelings indicate that this man came in through the window..."

"But the door is broken down."

"I understand that, but if I'm being true to myself- and I've seen many crimes committed in the past- your stolen sofa can only mean that..."

"It was the TV that was stolen. The TV. You even said so yourself."

"My instinct tells me YOU are the arsonist mister."

Eh, the devil you know.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:linki: Did you notice what number I am among his voters or any voters for that matter. If I recall correctly, I think I gave it all the time I could before I went to bed

Yes. Fourth.

You didn't ask him any questions. You just went with what other people said about him.

I think you knew he wouldn't get lynched.

Was there anybody who thought otherwise?

A number of people, apparently.

Anyway, thought and knew are two different things.

FZ. wrote:llama and Epi, you're not really trying to get to the bottom of things, you're trying to convince yourselves you're right. I see no point in discussing this further, because nothing I say will matter.

Actually, I'm trying to convince other people that I'm right. That's how this game works, if I'm not mistaken.

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:linki: Did you notice what number I am among his voters or any voters for that matter. If I recall correctly, I think I gave it all the time I could before I went to bed

Yes. Fourth.

You didn't ask him any questions. You just went with what other people said about him.

I think you knew he wouldn't get lynched.

Actually, I was fifth.

Ahhhh! I was wrong! I'm melting! melting!

FZ. wrote:linki: Did you notice what number I am among his voters or any voters for that matter. If I recall correctly, I think I gave it all the time I could before I went to bed

Yes. Fourth.

You didn't ask him any questions. You just went with what other people said about him.

I think you knew he wouldn't get lynched.

FZ. wrote:I just saw that Mata had already voted for me. Very interesting in light of all her other votes where she was pondering and contemplating all the aspects of everything. Have you noticed that she hasn't even asked me one question since I claimed my lynch would be a waste? Wouldn't she at all try to understand where I'm coming from.

Like you did for MM on Day 6?

FZ. wrote:linki: I would have had more fun because I'd be sitting here pleased with myself for managing to confuse you all so much

FZ. wrote:linki: Epi, I just want to know what will happen when you're proven wrong. All your suspicions are based on you thinking I'm bad. in the smallest chance that you're wrong (let's play that game, ok?), who would your suspects be then?

I've always wondered what would happen if I was ever proven wrong!

If you're telling the truth (12% chance), then we won't find out for some time, and I cannot say for sure who my suspects would be at that point. There would be a lot for more to think about and reevaluate.

FZ. wrote:I would have been having so much more fun had I actually been a baddie

How so?

Spacedaisy wrote:I slept on it and I have really come down to three things.

1. I don't trust Epi. He is not a detective, I feel certain of that. And while he is certain in his belief, I don't trust his agenda.

Well, okay, but I feel like I'm doing more than my share of the detective work.

Spacedaisy wrote:2. His math is based on assumptions. Assumptions that we do not have the answers to and therefore his case is guesswork at best.

It's a shame that you called my case "guesswork at best" when the math is only one part of it.

Spacedaisy wrote:3. FZ sounds far more genuine to me than Mata.

It is Day 8, right? You said this Day 1:

Spacedaisy wrote:I would consider a vote for either FZ or Trice right now. FZ seems kind of all over the place, which does not seem in character. And trice has been caught snipping post and misrepresenting them. That is hardly civ behavior.

I'm voting Trice.

That's a Day 1 suspicion that you dropped and never visited again until Day 6, when you said:

Spacedaisy wrote:Frankly I am surprised by this stuff coming out the woodwork about FZ. And I don't know that I buy it. She feels genuine to me. So since i need to vote before going to work because voting from work is a pita, I'm putting my vote on Made.

Votes Made.

But I'm glad I went through all of your posts, because I found this nugget:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Looking back Epi, you suspected FZ because of her absence as well, saying she is probably bad with SD. But FZ has since contributed quite a bit (though she did miss the lynch), and you never updated your suspicion to something current. If you did, then I can't find it.

I don't share your assessment of FZ. I think she has since posted a lot, but the content is not what I associate with good FZ. Good FZ. has a certain tenacity and assurance. She is a focused civilian, one that has proven dangerous to Mafia. I am not seeing that here.

We're definitely not on the same page. Whether or not it's constructive, FZ has contributed of late. Whether you think she's bad or good, you put her in a tough spot by suspecting her for 'being absent'. Same with Russ. Their continued absence will increase the suspicion of them. Also, if they do get around to talking, they'll be under the magnifying glass for being a previous target. It's a lose-lose situation for them.

Now, I do agree with your current observations of FZ. I also earlier missed this post on her, so your vote is more clear to me.

What do you know? An early, waffling defense of FZ from MM!

FZ. wrote:One last thing. When I come out civ, at the end of the game (not now, obviously), just admit that you were wrong, and don't make it look like you were really clever and trying to get me lynched because you weren't a detective, okay? Because I don't believe you're that good of a baddie

Never!

I have decided that voting for FZ. remains the most sensible path. I will summarize why in a concise manner here.

Regarding Mogi

1. Russtifinko, likely Mogi, was silent for over 48 hours. His only post was to come in and vote for FZ., doing so early.
2. If I'm right about Mogi's check, then there is only a 12% chance Russ got a false Kira report.
3. Russ was killed the very next Day.
4. Some people (even though pretending to be detectives) are diminishing or outright dismissing Russ' contribution.

++++

Regarding FZ.'s Posts

5. FZ. was not hunting early on like she usually does when civilian. I mentioned her on Day 1 and she said my reasoning was "shitty." Others, including Russ on Day 6, have agreed with me about her.
6. She made reference to her "baddie game" but claimed she didn't have one. I read through a game in which she was bad and noted some similarities.
7. She has repeatedly discounted or dismissed evidence.
8. She claimed that it's easier to build cases against civilians than it is Mafia.
9. Before she announced that she was unlynchable, she said in regard to me, "In his eyes, either we waste a lynch, or lynch a detective (me)."
10. She thinks that Mafia are trying to frustrate detectives into outing themselves.
11. It doesn't make sense for an unlychable (but killable) detective to out herself to avoid being lynched. That is a strategy with absolutely no upside.

++++

Regarding FZ.'s Votes
12. Voted bwt over Snowman, even campaigning in defense of Snowman.
13. Voted MM the same Day she said, "I have no idea. He's a riddle to me. Can you think of things that differ his civvie game from his baddie game?" That same day, FZ. tried to get people to pile on llama ("I need to go in a while. Anyone thinking of voting llama?") but there were no takers. She criticized llama ("But I realized he's not really contributing, he voted for me today for a very lame reason, in my opinion, and he's very narrow minded in his suspicions.") but her vote for MM was, if we're being fair, for a really lame reason ("I trust the people who voted for him"). She backed off the llama suspicion too (because he had guests). The people who voted MM (i.e., the one's she trusted) were Turnip Head, spacedaisy, and juliets. In the same post that she said she trusted these three, she said she thinks that TH is Sidoh. juliets voted for FZ. on Day 6, but FZ. somehow trusts her.

++++

Regarding Other Elements

14. Kira wrote this in the post: "BEA: I've got a message for you from Master Kira himself! YOU'RE NEXT, FZ!" This is a feeble attempt to make FZ. look like a detective.
15. I believe lynching FZ. is win-win. If she's not lying about being an unlynchable detective, then she will survive the lynch. If she is Kira, however, then the detectives will have forced the Death Note out of her hands. It's a cost-benefit analysis: Best case scenario, Kira loses a death note and L will know. Worst case scenario, nothing happens.

juliets wrote:

Epignosis wrote:juliets, how did you lose your post?

my left hand hit something on the left hand side of the computer. the screen went back to the home page. i looked at the firefox pages and the page i was posting was gone. why do you ask?

From my experience, the forum saves what you type even if you go back in your browser or close the window. If you can use your history to open the page in which you were typing, the content of your post should still be there.

juliets, how did you lose your post?

DharmaHelper wrote:Atoms - Steve Walsh - Killed Night 1 by Richard Branson
Epignosis - Richard Branson - Killed Night 2 by Damo Suzuki

I killed Steve Walsh? Say it ain't so!

Epignosis wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:If it helps you Epi (I doubt it will)

The drawing looked kinda familiar to me and I think I might have seen it in a previous game

I had the same impression.

It's an old picture that predates Harry Potter by far.

DharmaHelper wrote:If it helps you Epi (I doubt it will)

The drawing looked kinda familiar to me and I think I might have seen it in a previous game

I had the same impression.

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Bass_the_Clever
Black Rock
boo
Boomslang
DharmaHelper
DisgruntledPorcupine
Epignosis
FZ.
juliets
Matahari
Metalmarsh89
Ricochet
Spacedaisy
thellama73
Turnip Head
zeek

This list checks out.

It's for me, genius.

Bass_the_Clever
Black Rock
boo
Boomslang
DharmaHelper
DisgruntledPorcupine
Epignosis
FZ.
juliets
Matahari
Metalmarsh89
Ricochet
Spacedaisy
thellama73
Turnip Head
zeek

Look at the list above you. Which of those people would have been okay making drunk bea jokes?

Yesterday I looked at the URL of the photo of the bee and unfortunately it comes from bea's photobucket. No info there.

Also, consider that BTSC is afoot. Not likely afoot. Is.

By the way, FZ. was not my only agenda today. I have determined some things. Late to the party on some of them? Maybe. Light has his death note still. If FZ. is Misa who gave up her death note, then it's best to lynch her Day 11. Long way away, and I realize that people may balk at "wasting a lynch" on someone who may not be able to kill, but a 4-man voting bloc in which three of those are invincible is a nightmare at endgame.

My Russ data is factual iff

1. Russ is Mogi.
2. Russ checked FZ.
3. An incorrect check was from the pool of all non-Mogi roles.
4. Mogi's secrets aren't contradictory of what we know of Mogi.

The 48 hours of silence points to #1 being true.
The evidence points to #2 being true: Russ did a 180 on FZ. in the thread and voted first for her, even agreeing with someone who had considered him evil for so long.
Number 3 is speculation, but I think makes sense.
Number 4 is a distinct possibility.

Frame it how you want, Russ DID vote for FZ. out of the blue, and did so right early. Why did he do that?

Turnip Head wrote:But while we're talking about it, the "FU" still makes sense to me if she's got a civvie role that can't be lynched. She would still feel frustrated that she was being wrongly accused, even if she would ultimately survive. I don't think a civ-FZ likes wasting lynches on civs, especially if the civ in question is herself.

She's been okay with two of them.

Imagine if she knew MM won't be lynched. Read her that way. Tell me what you think.

Holy shit I almost voted the non-player option even though my game doesn't even have a poll right now.

juliets wrote:I am convinced by the statistical work that was done that I should vote for FZ. unless there was a flaw that I skipped over when reading. I read all of Mata and didn't see what I was expecting to see so I can't vote there today. We only have 20 minutes left to vote - is everyone aware of that?

Today's Tuesday.

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:That you are Misa Amane and that you have given up your death note to preserve a 4-person voting bloc.

Great, so do you want to vote for me or not?
And no offence, but I hope the baddies will be as clueless as you

None taken. How clueless are you?

I think I'm very clueless, because spending so much time defending myself (8 freagin' days), has left me with very little motivation left to actually understand what's going on here

Well, lucky for you, you'll have three Days in which you won't have to defend yourself.

By the way, there was a second part to that last post I quoted and colored, but I left it off just to see what you would say:

FZ. wrote:Second, am I wrong, or is Near the only detective who can't be lynched (other than L, but then someone dies instead of him)? Doesn't this makes the likelihood of MM being bad pretty high?
I'm not sure I get how the mechanics work here, but how are we supposed to get unlynchable people to die?

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:That you are Misa Amane and that you have given up your death note to preserve a 4-person voting bloc.

Great, so do you want to vote for me or not?
And no offence, but I hope the baddies will be as clueless as you

None taken. How clueless are you?

That you are Misa Amane and that you have given up your death note to preserve a 4-person voting bloc.

Read this. I added the pink.

FZ. wrote:First of all, why isn't anyone concerned that Epi said he thinks MM is a shinigami after the vote was closed? If he thought it was a waste of vote, shouldn't he have tried to tell us not to vote there? Yeah, he said vote me, but he didn't say he thought MM was a waste of time. It seems very reasonable to conclude that he doesn't care if we waste lynches. In his eyes, either we waste a lynch, or lynch a detective (me).

Either we waste a lynch OR we lynch a detective (specifically FZ.). That was Night 7 after MM didn't flip.

Now, from where I sit, lynching a detective is worse than wasting a lynch, but it is still wasting a lynch. However, in the above post, FZ. differentiated between the two, implying that lynching a detective isn't wasting a lynch. Now she would have us believe that lynching her is wasting a lynch.

I love me some conjunctions.

FZ. wrote:I've been thinking that maybe some of the baddies tactics is to push players really until they feel frustrated and they start outing themselves by hinting. It says Light has to know who some of the detectives are in order to kill them. I'm not sure exactly how baddies can do that without taking the eye deal, so maybe they are trying to get people to out themselves and then kill them during the night.
Who would fit that description? I can think of a few very obvious ones

Someone tell me if my interpretation of what I've read this morning is amiss:

The bad guys are using a tactic in which they frustrate the detectives so much that the detectives elect to out themselves. Knowing this, FZ. chooses to out herself as an unlynchable detective (on Day 8, not before), thus playing right in the Mafia's hands. Instead of absorbing the lynch and keeping a question mark still there, FZ. believed the smartest thing to do is role claim.

No...that doesn't ring true.

FZ. wrote:RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

Would Russ vote for Misa if he thought she still had her death note?

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

What I'm trying to articulate is what is your estimation of the likelyhood that Russ failed his rolecheck (producing an incorrect result) that lead him to think FZ. was bad? Versus the likelyhood that it was a successful check that produced the same result (FZ as a baddie role)?

12% vs. 50%

And I'm not a math guy, but Russ is.

And your calculations are factoring in all baddie roles or just the lynchable ones?

All of them except Snowman's and Eloh's, as they were lynched.

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

What I'm trying to articulate is what is your estimation of the likelyhood that Russ failed his rolecheck (producing an incorrect result) that lead him to think FZ. was bad? Versus the likelyhood that it was a successful check that produced the same result (FZ as a baddie role)?

12% vs. 50%

And I'm not a math guy, but Russ is.

If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

By "bad read" do you mean "Mafia read?"

Before I respond further, I am going to reread all of FZ.'s posts in light of this...revelation.

But "probability crap." That's good.