The Syndicate

Quin wrote: ↑Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:32 pm To remind you all
Luffy's on his second role
Hence the janitor

Dom wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:42 pm
Serious question: let's say there's people with two lives left, but no mafia roles. Do you think the game ends?

nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:16 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:46 pm

nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:52 pm I’m back from the beach, yay! What’d I miss?

Just kidding - I’ll read. But any help is appreciated.

What do you think of Boomslang?

Everybody is trying to read him rn.

From what I know of not even close to catching up, I don't think he's bad. I'm going by the standard I held in Cerberus, mostly - I don't think he would kill me Night 1, even with the two-life mechanic (although it would be more likely. Slightly.), nor would he be on board for a team doing so, and he was actively playing, so it's not like he would have "missed" a decision like that.

I'm going to catch up as much as I can, but I don't think I'm going to be able to get the deeper mechanics of speculation that this thread has put out. I've allowed myself to stray too far behind in this game this week with travel and apathy, and I don't think I'm going to get to a good, solid knowledge point, but I'll give it a shot. No spreadsheets for me, that's for sure.

Boomslang wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:58 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:57 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:36 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:14 pm What team is sprityo hypothetically a member of?

That’s a great question figuring I’ve voted to lynch every single member of the mafia we’ve lynched

And you were presumably killee by the evens.

Agreed 100%. I'm also very skeptical of the whole civ-to-mafia flip thing given that alignments are only revealed after second death. Why would flipping after first death make any sense to include as a mechanic in that case, especially with the already unusual length of this game?

But enough about conjectures. It's a difference of opinion, but I don't like Cbob calling this flip theory "reasonable." Scotty pulls good info on a cbob-Lorab connection as well.

SVS's response to spirit's defense feels like civ-on-civ perspective disagreement, too. There's too much passion to be mafia calculation.

Going to park my aubergine on Vote colonialbob for now.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:10 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:04 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:21 pm Gee thanks that's awesome. I bet it had the effect you were hoping for.

What was I hoping for?

Really? I don't know exactly what your point was but YOU do. There must be some reason behind going all drama like that.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:21 pm Gee thanks that's awesome. I bet it had the effect you were hoping for.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:45 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:30 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:55 pm Look at this early Cerberus post:

Spoiler: show

Boomslang wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:44 pm Ok, all caught up. I don't like Sig's explanation of the haiku confusion on a personal level, but I guess that's a playstyle disagreement. Not going to push it when we have juicy nightkill responses to make.

I wasn't involved in killing Blooper, but I strongly suspect that whoever did kill her is laughing their asses off at the WIFOM they just created. I'm betting it's one of the older players who understands the couples meta. Coupled with sig's good point about a ballsy scum team being willing to NK their own for the wifom...

Marmot needs to show up and give us something to chew on. Wilgy has also been super blendy so far. About the only thing we've gotten from him is some gentle needling of Sloonei based on a point made by Scotty. And a cryptic comment about Kyle — why is he a "hero and patriot" for voting Blooper?

I also have an eyeball on Lorab right now. "Ugh. I have no idea where to vote. I don't actually suspect anyone" at the end of Day 1 is so noncommittal, then she votes Sloonei for "peer pressure" and the active voices in the thread don't really get on her for that lack of reasoning. She then jumps in, first post of Day 2, to begin the WIFOM about me and the Blooper kill.

He nailed all three of them.

Agreed. My suspicion of him is that he is an Evil Even. What say you to that?

Nothin'. He's had no interaction with a confirmed Even at any point in this game.

Do you have real evidence for him being Even?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:55 pm Look at this early Cerberus post:

Spoiler: show

Boomslang wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:44 pm Ok, all caught up. I don't like Sig's explanation of the haiku confusion on a personal level, but I guess that's a playstyle disagreement. Not going to push it when we have juicy nightkill responses to make.

I wasn't involved in killing Blooper, but I strongly suspect that whoever did kill her is laughing their asses off at the WIFOM they just created. I'm betting it's one of the older players who understands the couples meta. Coupled with sig's good point about a ballsy scum team being willing to NK their own for the wifom...

Marmot needs to show up and give us something to chew on. Wilgy has also been super blendy so far. About the only thing we've gotten from him is some gentle needling of Sloonei based on a point made by Scotty. And a cryptic comment about Kyle — why is he a "hero and patriot" for voting Blooper?

I also have an eyeball on Lorab right now. "Ugh. I have no idea where to vote. I don't actually suspect anyone" at the end of Day 1 is so noncommittal, then she votes Sloonei for "peer pressure" and the active voices in the thread don't really get on her for that lack of reasoning. She then jumps in, first post of Day 2, to begin the WIFOM about me and the Blooper kill.

He nailed all three of them.

LoRab wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:22 pm super classy lynching me when I couldn't be online. I'm pretty sure I'm done with mafia. I may come back for games here and there, based on hosts. but, yeah. I think I'm done.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:28 pm

Strexcorp:

Boomslang - If Strex kill on odd Nights, I don't believe he killed nijuukyugou on Night 1, and furthermore, Marmot gave him shit and when pressed by Marmot, Boomslang said he would vote for Wilgy, which he did, in addition to giving Wilgy shit about faking silencing or some such thing.

colonialbob - Regarding his first role, colonialbob didn't make more than a token effort to get people to refrain from voting for him, although I can't necessarily fault him for that, as kills move things along one way or the other, and of course pure, natural schadenfreude. However, colonialbob made several moves to defend Wilgy and turn the lynch against those calling for his head. The attempts occurred when there was a chance to save Wilgy (perhaps in hopes of a replacement), in contrast to INH's spirited defense, which occurred when there was little hope of turning the tide.

Dom - Dom made no mention of Marmot or Wilgy during his time in Cerberus (or Pikachu, but that's hardly relevant). The vote against Wilgy looked like one of resignation rather than conviction. None of this points to a Strexcorp affiliation, but there's nothing that rules Dom out either.

Dragon D. Luffy - Unfortunately for DDL, DrWilgy's ultimate role, Dhalsim, was 66, which is even, not odd, and so the fact that he is number 32 is irrelevant and cannot help his case.

insertnamehere - He adamantly tried to save DrWilgy even though there was no good reason for a civilian to do that. No civilian should want to go into an endgame scenario with an absent DrWilgy and lose because he was lynched then rather than earlier when it made the most sense, and it is unlikely either mafia was going to do the civilians the favor of removing him. His voting record is, from what I can observe, abysmal. None of INH's posts with regard to Marmot or Wilgy (or vice-versa) strike me as particularly compatible or incompatible.

Kylemii - Kylemii's interactions with Marmot and Wilgy don't smell fake, especially with regard to the former, more active one.

Lorab - This is a bit more complicated. I'm going to need spoiler tags.

Spoiler: show

Day 4: "So, not sure what I think about wilgy, but I don’t think he faked a silence."

Night 4: "I would have probably voted Wilgy, mainly because I still don't think Boomslang is bad."

Oof.

Boomslang
5
38%
Voters: Marmot, Scotty, Sloonei, DrWilgy, Kylemii

DrWilgy
4
31%
Voters: Boomslang, nijuukyugou, Spacedaisy, sig

You'll note that Boomslang was tied for the lynch, so a vote from Lorab at this point would have been important.

LoRab wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:04 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:31 pm Weeeeee

unvote. Vote sig

If sig is silenced, he would have voted like Wilgy did to let us know.

That's a really good point. He's posted elsewhere, but that was starting before day started (and, actually, mostly during the night phase), so thinking that isn't his way of saying he isn't silenced.

Unvote and Vote: Sig

Wilgy was still alive, but Lorab thought it a great idea to vote sig when the opportunity presented itself. Note that there is no conviction on Wilgy.

Day 6: "I'm willing to entertain suspicion of wilgy or marmot--I need to reread those posts."

Day 8 " Wilgy has had a good deal of suspicion"

I want people to look at the context here especially. There is a lot of detail given in the descriptions of others, but "Wilgy has had a good deal of suspicion" says absolutely nothing about Wilgy. If Wilgy had such a degree of suspicion, Lorab should have been about to summarize it as she had for Boomslang , nijuukyugou, and sig.

Night 6: "I'm not against a Marmot vote. I find him hard to read personally, but trust the read that others have of his behavior."

Day 7: "I'm fine with an aubergine vote for Marmot. Not sure he'd be my top choice, but I get the suspicion and I think it's important for us to get a successful lynch."

Day 9: "Voting Wilgy so I don't forget another vote."

Day 10: "Voting Wilgy before I forget to vote tomorrow."

Day 11: "Aubergine is tasty. I am voting Wilgy."

The progression here is one of someone who wants to hold on to her teammates, but can't afford to keep them either.

Huge red Strexcorp-shaped flag.

nijuuyugou - Lovely lady.

Quin - Quin was recently killed, so I'll withhold judgment. I do believe the first role was a civilian role.

Scotty - Another spoiler. Hoo boy Scotty. Get ready for this shit.

Spoiler: show

Given my analysis on Lorab, I had to laugh at this:

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:18 pm Wilgy, I see your vote for LoRab. Care to elaborate? Or are you supposed to be silenced?

Also I just had a thought- what if we only share lynch results and not NKs? Aka the other tribe might also be down peeps too?

So Wilgy was silenced, or pretending to be silenced, and voted Lorab?

And I read the rest and I don't believe Scotty is a Strex guy. Judge for yourselves.

Sloonei - Sloonei delivered the elusive Marmot.

Spacedaisy - Spacedaisy went after Wilgy when it wasn't necessary. Perhaps she's on his team, but keeping Wilgy alive is actually quite easy since he rarely draws kills and people can be reluctant to lynch him because of his...je ne sais quoi

sprityo - sprityo died with one of the likeliest of civilian roles, and as of right now I do not see him as good or bad. There is a chance that DDL was a civilian in his first life and then became an Evil Even, but outside of leaving the possibility open, I'm ignoring it.

S~V~S - She pushed hard for Speedchuck when Wilgy should have been lynched, even after voting him the first time. She did not vote for Wilgy when he was actually lynched.

Evil Evens:

Boomgslang - I see no reason why Boomslang is not an Evil Even. When Long Con was doomed, Boomslang voiced support of a one-line "case."

colonialbob - If he were teammates with nutella during his first life, she would not have voted him Day 6, yet she did. There is a chance that colonialbob was a civilian in his first life and then became an Evil Even, but outside of leaving the possibility open, I'm ignoring it. That said, it wasn't like colonialbob's first role invited people to vote for him- people just did. And nutella, who was evil, was one such person. Might there be two evildoers who found it convenient to park a vote on Charlie to skate through Day 6? Doubtful, I think, unless DH was bad, and I don't believe he was.

Dom - Dom's was the initial query that brought about the destruction of Long Con. Nobody else raised that question, and it didn't look like anybody was going to do so, and LC could've easily given more plausible answers than what he did.

Dragon D. Luffy - I have a hard time believing he's an Evil Even, based on his first role. There is a chance that DDL was a civilian in his first life and then became an Evil Even, but outside of leaving the possibility open, I'm ignoring it.

insertnamehere - There is nothing at all that precludes INH from being a teammate of nutella's or LC's, although most of that is owing to the fact that he was on Cerberus the whole time. And somebody has to be on that side to have been submitting even kills against them.

Kylemii - Kylemii had nothing to say about nutella or Long Con in Pikachu. sprityo was killed on Night 8, an even Night in which Kylemii was present in Pikachu.

Lorab - There is no reason to believe Lorab isn't an Evil Even, except that she's Strexcorp.

nijuuyugou - Lovely lady.

Quin - Quin was recently killed, so I'll withhold judgment. I do believe the first role was a civilian role.

Scotty - The only reasons I can think of Scotty as being an Evil Even are circumstantial at best, but every once in a while, circumstantial is all right. While he looked all right to me when he ventured into Pikachu, his nutella treatment was a little too generous given the fact that she wasn't contributing.

Sloonei - Sloonei is compatible for the same reasons Scotty is.

Spacedaisy - Spacedaisy tried to tie nutella to nijuukyugou, which is evidently false, and I'm not entirely sure why she tried to write that narrative. It doesn't make sense.

sprityo - sprityo died with one of the likeliest of civilian roles, and as of right now I do not see him as good or bad. There is a chance that sprityo was a civilian in his first life and then became an Evil Even, but outside of leaving the possibility open, I'm ignoring it.

S~V~S - S~V~S' speculation regarding nutella's role and how she used it or didn't use it or what not strikes me as too loose and yet too determined to be an Evil Even.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:25 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:20 pm It would appear that each team has 4 players at the minimum. I’m not sure whether that factors into players who haven’t died yet or not.

Where do you get this information? I still think there is probably only 3, though I don't know that for certain.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:21 pm Scotty can you include these in your next update of the pertinent information? I searched for these for an embarrassingly long time and couldn't find them because I was looking for the bright red header and they weren't used on these.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:44 am

Speedchuck's role and affiliation has been revealed. He is:

You are TOWN. You will win if all anti-town factions are eliminated.

You are 59: The Moon (Elemental). Each night, you will PM one element to the hosts (Light, Darkness, Gas or Dust) and one player to be targeted for any effect the element may have. If the Sun is in the game, they will also choose one element out of Light, Darkness, Gas or Dust. When you and the Sun are both in the game, your element choices will combine to form one effect. Each combined effect may only be triggered once. The Sun's target will get the benefit of any positive effect, while your target will suffer any negative effect. You may not choose the same element or the same target on consecutive days. You will not be informed of the effects of your elements.

He is still alive. Carry on.

Golden wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:46 pm

Nijuukyugou's role and affiliation has been revealed. She is:

You are TOWN. You will win if all anti-town factions are eliminated.

You are 5: The Gunslinger (All Fall Down). Once, during a day phase, you may kill a player (by sending a PM to the hosts).

She is still alive. Carry on.

SVS, I'm sorry to go back to a question I've asked multiple times but I wanted to be sure I understood you, you think Speedchuck was bad but looked good both here and in his second lynch because of nutella and LC together? I'm finding this whole fake flip thing confusing and trying to sort through it. Do you right now believe Speedchuck was good and his last lynch flip was authentic or do you think he was bad and his lynch flip was faked to show him as a civ? I know this seems like something that is unimportant since he is dead now, but I'm looking things over and it could actually be pretty relevant for what I am looking at.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:31 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:23 pm Spacedaisy

?

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:55 pm I've managed to be both traveling and sick for the past couple days, so I'm gonna start breaking some stuff down.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:28 pm insertnamehere - He adamantly tried to save DrWilgy even though there was no good reason for a civilian to do that. No civilian should want to go into an endgame scenario with an absent DrWilgy and lose because he was lynched then rather than earlier when it made the most sense, and it is unlikely either mafia was going to do the civilians the favor of removing him. His voting record is, from what I can observe, abysmal. None of INH's posts with regard to Marmot or Wilgy (or vice-versa) strike me as particularly compatible or incompatible.

I get the feeling that I need to re-post my "defense" of Wilgy again for people to actually understand what I was saying with it. Instead, people just seem to have read the first word of each paragraph. I was worried that the thread was forgoing actual scumhunting in favor of easy, often-absentee targets. I viewed the Wilgy train as an example of this. I fully admitted that there was a 95% chance that Wilgy was going to be lynched that day, and I didn't even really offer an alternative. I discussed multiple flaws in people's reasoning for voting him, but I also stated that those flaws were mostly trumped by the fact that he simply wasn't showing up. It was as much of a plea for people to present more detailed, sturdy cases as it was a half-hearted "defense" of Wilgy.

In light of his flip, it's certainly very easy to use it to paint me negatively. But that would require ignoring context.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:49 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:07 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:05 pm linki Epi: I wish I had solid grounds to rule me out. I'm not sure that I have thus far done anything to prove I am not an Even.

That's why you're there.

I didn't argue with you keeping me in the list of possible Evens, just defending against the sole reason you gave. If you leave me in there because you have no reason to rule me out, I'm fine with that. But I didn't care for what you had to say about me. I wasn't attempting to tie Blooper to nutella.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:25 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:42 pm [VOTE: Lorab] aubergine

What do you think of the delay in pushing the button?

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:05 pm linki @Epi: I wish I had solid grounds to rule me out. I'm not sure that I have thus far done anything to prove I am not an Even.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:49 pm Uh Epi, I don't know what you mean about tying nutella to Blooper? Oh wait, are you talking about early on when nutella's first role was revealed? If so I only found it kind of odd that anyone's first thing they did was try to figure out who they are talking to, from what tribe or basically if they could trust them. So I found Blooper mildly suspect at first, and I later dismissed this when I read nutella's account and heard more from Blooper herself. So you can make it being about me tying her to nutella if you like, but it had nothing to do with nutella so much as I found Blooper's behavior odd.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:08 pm lol watch Epi be the Even that killed sprityo and fool us all.

I don't think so tho

Quin wrote: ↑Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:52 pm Which mafia team isn't paying attention? I don't hate your suggestion though. The only suspects I've promoted have been DDL, Scotty and Sloonei (to a much lesser degree). If they're all good it's an easy distance kill.

Quin wrote: ↑Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:41 pm Why did two mafia teams keep the closest thing to a confirmed townie (me) alive for 12 days? This is what I'd like to know.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:29 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:30 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:25 pm So is refrigerator the same person who is removing people from the poll?

I thought it was just they wouldn’t receive votes if they posted 10 qualifying haikus

no, you are correct. I keep thinking that role is one and the same.

I have no idea who the removing from the poll is. Could have been a pizza effect via sig? Or something else? Haven't seen it happen since speed was removed. Has it happened any other time?

I mean, hell, someone is obviously wearing a skin suit of Ben- don't know why he started showing up now.

Alive


colonialbob
Dom
Epignosis
Quin
sprityo
S~V~S

exactly so one of Dom and Epi is Refrigerator and the other is the one who removes people from the polls

now think. who would remove speedchuck from the poll?

I think youre right in Dom being Refrigerator, Epi is the poll remover

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:04 pm 4. Nailing the assistant principle with a mini-muffin throw from the opposite side of the cafeteria.

Ben Linus wrote: ↑Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:20 pm The final request for now is something I need all of you to accomplish before end of Day 13:

Write your five greatest hits and share them with the thread.

See you later.