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by Epignosis
Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:25 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Cars are bullshit.
We call ours the Dodge Durangdon'tgo
by Epignosis
Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:21 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:Eh?
Hey prisoner, you dropped your sense of humor. Bork bork bork.
I almost didn't even get that.

Does this probable TH lynch thrill you?
I'm not thrilled about anything right now, sorry. Car shit. Again. Left work at 4, Just got home a little bit ago.
by Epignosis
Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:17 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Eh?
Hey prisoner, you dropped your sense of humor. Bork bork bork.
by Epignosis
Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:11 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Lynching sig. Nice.
by Epignosis
Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Quin wrote:Gonna change to turnip, because now I'm worried I'm voting him based on inactivity. Mind you, under normal circumstances I'd be keen to vote out inactives. It's a matter of principle.
I don't understand this post. Can you clarify?
by Epignosis
Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:43 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Scotty wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Well basketball was horseshit tonight. Thanks for nothing Chris Paul. Time to bet on the PGA.
Vuoold yuoo cunseeder yuoorselff a gembleeng mun, Ipee? Bork Bork Bork!
No. I usually win.
by Epignosis
Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:37 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Well basketball was horseshit tonight. Thanks for nothing Chris Paul. Time to bet on the PGA.
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 10:11 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

indiglo wrote:EBWOP: *they're* ... oh man, that is going to bother me. That's one of my pet peeves. :doh:
:suspish:
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Boomslang
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Boomslang fucking votes, says fuck all, and then fucks off.
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

What's astounding to me about that is not that Turnip Head spoke in defense of sig, Enrique, or Quin, but that Turnip Head's initial suspicion post-Fuzz was agleaminranks...
Turnip Head wrote:
RadicalFuzz wrote:Because at the moment that I voted Gleam-ika was 5-5. As for why it wasn't Gleam, you're not gonna like my answer, but I honestly didn't care which one got lynched.

Luffy I said I wouldn't touch the ika/Silverwolf situation. I said nothing of lynches except that I wanted to avoid ties.
But I read back and you had a ping on Gleam, you even voted for him earlier. So why don't you care?
...whom Fuzz "suspected." :|
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Turnip Head wrote:I want to make sure that sig, Enrique and the other anti-CFDers get their proper day in court. It's easy to assume they're all baddies caught with their pants down but it almost feels like thats too easy. For all we know the rest of the fuzz weren't even around at EoD.
Boomslang (Enrique) is alive.
Turnip Head wrote:I think sig is town. It would have been easy for him to agree with the Fuzz suspicion if bad but he was thinking critically about the CFD and he was wrong. I don't want a witch hunt against the players who were against the CFD... but of them I think Luffy looks the worst for being against it but then jumping on it anyways, but he clearly put a lot of work into analyzing Golden's role in the events, so :shrug:
sig is alive.
Turnip Head wrote:And I see the distinction that Quin is making between being pinged by Luffy's post (about how we're not allowed to make a new bandwagon) and being against the Fuzz wagon specifically. I don't think that is as big a contradiction as Sloonei is making it out to be. Both things can be true and still be genuine.
Quin is alive.
Turnip Head wrote:Welcome back Matt :eek:

I'm gonna revisit Gleam. I think it's noteworthy that everyone on his wagon jumped ship for Fuzz while the other two wagons remained more or less intact. Does anyone know if any players who originally voted for Gleam ended up switching to ika?
Gleam didn't make it.
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 2] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Turnip Head wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
S~V~S wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:So now you are gonna witch hunt everyone who didn't agree with the CFD? That's what we're doing?

Because I still think it's a sloppy idea. Would've preferred if we've had a few more hours to do it.

And for the record, I'm against reading any of the people in the Fuzz lynch as civ automatically. Because if gleam or ika is also scum, this could be a great bussing job. The guy who started this whole thing is famous for his bussing skills in this forum, don't forget about that.

I'm not reading anything today though. Night.
Do you mean me? I am a she.
No. Golden. He was the one who started the CFD think iirc.

(if I'm wrong then screw that, this shit was too fast for me to form any rational thoughts).
I like to think it was a group effort. I brought up the idea of doing a CFD but didn't know who to gun for, and then SVS and Golden showed me the light.
Erm...I don't see this leading to the light in Turnip Head's post history. In one post, Golden told TH to read S~V~S's last posts, but Turnip Head ended up voting Fuzz because Fuzz told him to. The language here is exaggerated. The clouds didn't part, and there was no revelation or conversion or salvation- just a seemingly reluctant vote at the behest of the damned.
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

This, on the other hand:
Turnip Head wrote:Why Fuzz? I've got linki up the wazoo
Turnip Head wrote:Wow, this is happening :faint:

Is a good point about Fuzz not wanting to touch the ika thing, but he did say he'd break the tie and didn't care which way he broke it. That may say something in and of itself though.
Turnip Head wrote:
RadicalFuzz wrote:Turnip the reason you should vote for me is so you stop twiddling your thumbs about who to vote for.
Okay Fuzz... I'm doing it.... :scared:
The first two posts imply a defense of Fuzz, albeit a soft one (the second one more so than the first). The third post sounds like feigned apprehension to me, rendered all the more unusual because Fuzz just came out and told Turnip Head to vote for him.
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:@ Epi: Building townie cred. At the time I don't think anyone sincerely expected a CFD to take place. If you are town then we can assess that all three of the players up for lynch that day before Fuzz were good guys, so by making a post expressing such dissatisfaction TH looks like a good level headed townie who was above all our earlier paranoia. He expressed a lack of reads that day, and the next day he went hard after Long Conc but since then has gone back to expressing non-reads on everyone. I do not like that very much.
I don't know. That's just not something I would do if I were a cop. Three people up for a lynch who aren't on the team? Let it be and on to Day 3.

But I understand the second half just fine. Carrying on.
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 2:46 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 2] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I started going through Turnip Head's posts, and stopped here:
Turnip Head wrote:I want to lead a CFD counterwagon because I don't like any of these 3, but I have no idea where to go. My vote is accomplishing nothing but I don't know where else to put it. I really hope Epi doesn't get lynched, I haven't played with him in forever and I'm liking his new approach this game.
Question: If Turnip Head is a cop, how does this Day 2 post make sense?
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:42 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

sig wrote:
Sloonei wrote:
sig wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
sig wrote:
Sloonei wrote:Those 7 points were actually 3 points. I took Silverwolf's "100% sure" remarks to be in response to the thread imploring her to make that claim for the sake of sig's reaction. I don't think her read on ika is infallible, and I am able to believe a scenario where ika was what his role flip says he was.

What makes you say the stool pigeon is a role the seemer would choose?
One of the few without BTSC.
I would pick hitman and draw out a hitman. A civilian who can kill is a dangerous civilian. Flip as a hitman, and wait for somebody to contest it, and then arrest. That's what I would do.
Contesting would be against the rules though wouldn't it?
Also as off right know the hitmen have done more damage to the civs then the mafia. So while I see your point and it could be true, I don't think getting to deep into who the seemer might have flipped as should be done. I will stand by my claim that Ika is the seemer though.

So Chain switched off of Ika to back onto Ika right?
:confused2: What are you basing this claim on? I am counting a total of 1 hitman kill, compared to like 7 cop arrests/kills.
So Epi said if he was the seemer he would flip as the hitman, drawing out the hitman so the mafia could kill them. He said this since a town with a kill power is more dangerous to the mafia. I disagree, I think a town vig can be more dangerous to the town then they would be to the mafia. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Only because of ratios. By the same thinking, lynches can be more dangerous to civilians than the Mafia.
by Epignosis
Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

thellama73 wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote: Please illustrate the early game near-lynch scenario you referenced that makes you feel chaindeath is a scapegoat.
This string of posts/votes looked suspicious to me, and were largely based on the fact that he hadn't checked in yet, which is not na terribly good predictor of baddieness. They all came within two hours of each other.
Spoiler: show
sig wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:@SVS Zodiac meta reasons :srsnod:
See I disagree with this, she was inactive in Zodiac and I don't think it has anything to do with alignment. Can you explain to me why you think she is showing this meta a bit more?


@Nero did you role mafia again? I mean 3/3 would be a bit odd. :ponder:

chaindeath Current thoughts?
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Scotty wrote:Wow. Everyone checked in. I'm impressed.
Everyone except Chaindeath.

He is lurking, but no posts yet.
Scotty wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Scotty wrote:Wow. Everyone checked in. I'm impressed.
Everyone except Chaindeath.

He is lurking, but no posts yet.
Oh! Damn, I missed him. Good catch!

Voting chaindeath
Nerolunar wrote:
chaindeath wrote:He is so good at typing.... He didn't do it properly and he offers his sincerest apologies. Long Con
This looks somewhat sheepish to me.

Why does typing mistakes and then apologising for it indicate baddie alignment? Chain I would like you to explain too. I see nothing scummy in LC´s behavior so far.
What's your assessment of chaindeath's vote for ika?
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:04 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Scotty wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Seems like we're divided today.
What changed from yesterday? Boom was on the chopping block, he seemed like the one that garnered the votes from the civ core. The only info we got was that silver may or may not have info.

I mean if the group ends up favoring another by tomorrow (end of phase) I'll vote there, but I'm just awfully curious why we don't just effing lynch something together for once.

Question for anyone: who can NOT get behind a Boom vote with conviction?
Are you asking me what changed? I don't know.

I think chaindeath made a clumsy move. That's why he has my vote.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:01 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

sig wrote:
Sloonei wrote:Those 7 points were actually 3 points. I took Silverwolf's "100% sure" remarks to be in response to the thread imploring her to make that claim for the sake of sig's reaction. I don't think her read on ika is infallible, and I am able to believe a scenario where ika was what his role flip says he was.

What makes you say the stool pigeon is a role the seemer would choose?
One of the few without BTSC.
I would pick hitman and draw out a hitman. A civilian who can kill is a dangerous civilian. Flip as a hitman, and wait for somebody to contest it, and then arrest. That's what I would do.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 10:51 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Seems like we're divided today.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 10:17 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Quin wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:No one is going to lynch you and you get to vote. In terms of kills (or arrests), you are a free square.
Agreed. Baddies might be concerned that killing me is impossible though, because I am a unique game mechanic made human and who knows what that implies.

Separate question. Do you think ika was the seemer?
Nope. Still don't.

You would have two Mafia lined up nice and pretty for the Day 2 lynch. One of them is a useful role at Night, the surveillance specialist. The other is a useful role during the Day, the seemer. So ika the seemer lynches Fuzz the surveillance guy with borrowed votes?

That's too much for me to believe.
Silverwolf wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I actually considered for a moment that SW might have the role ika flipped as, but her initial reaction to the lynch would seem to reject that theory.
I have "reasons" for thinking ika is the seemer.
I still don't think she's right about ika.
If ika was lynched on Day 2, do you think Fuzz would have survived Day 3?
I do. Has the runner up in any lynch gotten lynched the next Day phase?
Why does that matter? Are you saying that nobody would want to lynch Fuzz because he was the runner up the day before? You aren't considering the individual circumstances.
You asked me what I think. I told you what I think.

It matters because that's what I've seen happen over and over again.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

All right, I've made up a game.

If you are on right now.

You have a lynch switch. You have to use it now.

Go. :dark:
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:21 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Okay now that I've sufficiently poked Epi, I'm going to pose a question to everyone:
Silverwolf wrote:Sigh................

I have one little thing that concerns me about this...................
Silverwolf wrote:Nah, probs just being paranoid.

I'm sorry ika..................... :hugs:
Epignosis wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:Sigh................

I have one little thing that concerns me about this...................
Just one?
Yes
The highlighted bit seems to immediately eliminate the possibility that Silverwolf could have information that implies/confirms ika is the seemer. If there's even an implication then that admission of probable paranoia would have never happened, right?

So when we return to this later thing:
Silverwolf wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I actually considered for a moment that SW might have the role ika flipped as, but her initial reaction to the lynch would seem to reject that theory.
I have "reasons" for thinking ika is the seemer.
How seriously should we take those freaking quotation marks? It's designed to look like a role hint or an infodump, but I don't know what it could be based on the roles at hand. If Silverwolf was the actual role that ika flipped, then she would have never doubted herself for a moment.
Or look at the pink.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:16 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Quin wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:No one is going to lynch you and you get to vote. In terms of kills (or arrests), you are a free square.
Agreed. Baddies might be concerned that killing me is impossible though, because I am a unique game mechanic made human and who knows what that implies.

Separate question. Do you think ika was the seemer?
Nope. Still don't.

You would have two Mafia lined up nice and pretty for the Day 2 lynch. One of them is a useful role at Night, the surveillance specialist. The other is a useful role during the Day, the seemer. So ika the seemer lynches Fuzz the surveillance guy with borrowed votes?

That's too much for me to believe.
Silverwolf wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I actually considered for a moment that SW might have the role ika flipped as, but her initial reaction to the lynch would seem to reject that theory.
I have "reasons" for thinking ika is the seemer.
I still don't think she's right about ika.
If ika was lynched on Day 2, do you think Fuzz would have survived Day 3?
I do. Has the runner up in any lynch gotten lynched the next Day phase?
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 7] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

chaindeath is where I'm voting. He voted ika, went to Nerolunar, and then went back to ika because "that's what the civilians want."

I still have a lot of reading to do, but by God it ain't happening tonight. Today sucked.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:07 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:No one is going to lynch you and you get to vote. In terms of kills (or arrests), you are a free square.
Agreed. Baddies might be concerned that killing me is impossible though, because I am a unique game mechanic made human and who knows what that implies.

Separate question. Do you think ika was the seemer?
Nope. Still don't.

You would have two Mafia lined up nice and pretty for the Day 2 lynch. One of them is a useful role at Night, the surveillance specialist. The other is a useful role during the Day, the seemer. So ika the seemer lynches Fuzz the surveillance guy with borrowed votes?

That's too much for me to believe.
Silverwolf wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I actually considered for a moment that SW might have the role ika flipped as, but her initial reaction to the lynch would seem to reject that theory.
I have "reasons" for thinking ika is the seemer.
I still don't think she's right about ika.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I don't suppose it would do me any good to tell you that if I were a cop, I'd be arresting your ass before breakfast.
Why?
No one is going to lynch you and you get to vote. In terms of kills (or arrests), you are a free square.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:50 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I don't think anyone on this roster of players had any reason to kill Silverwolf except Epignosis. I also don't think it was an attempt to frame him, because there can be no more difficult a framejob than one on the hornet's nest. Many of the doubts about what happened on Day 2 are resolved theoretically by a Fuzz-ika-Epignosis cop team dynamic, and his involvement also plays into the way he handled Silverwolf's suspicion of ika pre-lynch and suspicion that he was the seemer post-lynch.
I (obviously) don't agree with you. I would venture a guess that she got arrested because she's not on anyone's list of eight. :meany:
Numerous people weren't on any lists of eight, and none of them were lightning rods that could [unitnentionally] derail the thread quite like Silverwolf. She was also being called a tinfoil suspect by at least two people.
I don't suppose it would do me any good to tell you that if I were a cop, I'd be arresting your ass before breakfast.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:42 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Epignosis, I have no idea what you think of Turnip Head. Do you think anything of Turnip Head?
Turnip Head has a tell when he's bad. When I say that, I don't mean it's a definitive, "Turnip Head is for sure Mafia" tell, but it is something very specific I've observed him do several times when he is bad.

I haven't seen it here yet. Take that for what it's worth.

On the other hand, I read your exchange with Turnip Head and thought your point about the inconsistency regarding significant others was a good one. Turnip Head says you're twisting his words and taking them out of context. On the surface, I don't agree with him, but I'd rather look at his posts and be the judge of that myself.

Context or not, his ika vote was shit, as was most of them.

As of now, Turnip Head isn't on my list.

Spoiler: show
Prisoner 509378 wrote:Trying this again, EBWOP. Sorry to repost the whole thing, but I want the context all nestled into a logical place.

Image

I am looking closely at the current alignment ratio (if that wasn't already obvious :p). I thought it would be a good idea to draw out a projection for the game to come to determine exactly how many lynches we might have to work with, because that would be hugely beneficial towards the effort of narrowing our pools to a small enough number of people that the baddies simply cannot escape no matter how many there are (assuming the town squad is not infiltrated by a masterbaddie). The above chart reflects that effort.

It's likely unclear. The numbers provided display, by my math/estimation, how many mislynches town can afford to have from this point on without losing the game. I accounted for numerous variables, to include how many people die tonight (the far left margin shows those possibilities), and how many people will die in each ensuing night.

Note: this is just a baseline, and some variables cannot be accounted for without increasing the workload tremendously. The chart math is based on the same number of people dying/being arrested every night (always 0, always 1, or always 2). This is obviously unlikely. With that in mind, it'd have to serve as a starting point upon which later adjustments can be made if necessary when night kills have dropped.

The "maximum" column is there for completism, it's extremely unlikely that will be reflected in this game. The "minimum" column is worst-case scenario. The "projected" column is the most likely on average. You can see that under most possible circumstances, the number of remaining mislynches before town loses this game is *3*. It's possible that can change.

With this in mind, I think we need to try to create a pool of EIGHT suspects that enough of us agree on that we can work through it without as much risk of stubbornness/lone-wolf combat that will destroy the game. I specifically say EIGHT suspects, because that number accounts for FIVE BADDIES, AND THREE MISLYNCHES (based on the common projection of 3 in the chart).

This might be extremely confusing, I don't know. Ask me about it if so. Also the image might be broken which would be super annoying, so lemme know if that's the case.
Son of a bitch, they have a better math program in prison than we do in public school.
Prisoner 509378 wrote:Everyone who knows him best: is there any reason you think we should be concerned about llama? I've been comfortable with him because of his sporadic appearances and tunneling, but I don't want to give him a permanent hall pass based on meta.
thellama73 uses intense tunnel vision to mask his alignment, whether good or bad. That's what he's done here. I can't knock him for it, because it keeps people guessing about him. I have trouble forming an opinion on him either way.
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
indiglo wrote:How about the list?
I don't think anyone on this roster of players had any reason to kill Silverwolf except Epignosis. I also don't think it was an attempt to frame him, because there can be no more difficult a framejob than one on the hornet's nest. Many of the doubts about what happened on Day 2 are resolved theoretically by a Fuzz-ika-Epignosis cop team dynamic, and his involvement also plays into the way he handled Silverwolf's suspicion of ika pre-lynch and suspicion that he was the seemer post-lynch.
I (obviously) don't agree with you. I would venture a guess that she got arrested because she's not on anyone's list of eight. :meany:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:I'm not talking just votes. I'm talking suspicion in general. This marks three days of "sig's bad" to "nah, not going to vote sig today." If sig is bad, I'm going to tear this thread apart looking for the people who kept their kid gloves on and why. :srsnod:

Time permitting. :sigh:
Spoken like a man who knows sig's alignment already and is preemptively setting up fisticuffs after what he thought would be a looming lynch.

He's on Boomslang's team because he held his vote on unlynchables (sig and chain) throughout Day 6 and only moved to Boomslang after the ika wagon had swelled to its apex.
I had every intention of voting Boomslang if no one was going to lynch sig. I implied as much.
Quin wrote:Epignosis made a bold claim that he had good reason not to vote Wilgy back in day 2 or 3. That infers BTSC. Immediately after this post Wilgy came after Epi with claws out. I took it initially as scummy, but went back on that after a while. I think it is time to bring that out of the mud again.
I thought I had Wilgy's role figured out due to something he said. Turns out I was incorrect. I thought he was claiming to be a hitman and was actually announcing his kill in the thread so the Don could pick up on it.

++++

I see there's a lot more, but I'm posting anyway.
by Epignosis
Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:23 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote: but the fact none of you are willing to consider my POV if it happens to differ from your own
Considering =/= Agreeing with
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:34 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

indiglo wrote:
Epignosis wrote:indiglo, my amusing friend. Who do you want to lynch tomorrow? I feel comfortable supporting you if it comes down to it again.
Well, I certainly don't have any special knowledge, so let me put that out there. But I'd feel ok with Boomrique again. And I'm also interested in looking Quin's way. I'm more comfortable looking at sig again too. (Ain't that a shocker?)

Beyond that, I am also totally open to listening to anyone in the Fantastic Four (not necessarily accurate in number, but you catch my drift) and who they would like to go after.
chaindeath is my new #1.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:31 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote:Is Epi actually interested in my opinion or just trying to rile me up?

Here ya go Epi:

You want the reasons for my reads? The person who wouldn't even do GTH reads?

OK, Give me your reads and your reasons and I'll happily elaborate on mine more.

I don't want anymore snide comments about me or ika. I don't want any more evasive answers.

I want simple reads with reasons. I've done this throughout the game but I don't believe you've done it all.

So you want more from me, then give yours and I'll happily give mine in great detail with bulletpoints, special font and colors even.
Nah. Not worth it.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:23 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote:Epi, You fucking asked me for my God damn reads so fuck off again!!
I also asked "Why?"

See?
Epignosis wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:Like, everyone just wants to say I was wrong and I should accept that and not consider I might have reasons for thinking ika was the seemer. Like, not only dismissing it outright but making snide remarks to me about being wrong and yet ANOTHER assumption I don't know ika.

Town is gonna lose this game. It makes me sad.
ika is dead now. Who is bad? And why?
No he's not. He's arrested. I still think there's a chance he's the seemer.

Scum is in the group of Soneji, Draconus, Serge, you, Boomslang, Chaindeath, Nerolunar. Black

Everyone else is town. White
Silverwolf wrote:
indiglo wrote:Ok, but how does it make sense that the scum team would bus their Seemer when most of the obvious civs are NOT on board with said lynch? It is illogical. The Seemer's strength (as I see it) is that when all the civs get real suspish of him, and decide to lynch him, he throws a wrench in their thinking by Seeming civ. That was not the case here.

The Inglorious Civsters (pardon me for using that, even though it hasn't been voted on or notorized) were not on board with the ika vote. It makes zero sense to me that ika was the Seemer. ZERO.
Discounting this possibility outright is foolish. And just because ika didn't play how you'd expect the seemer to play, doesn't mean he isn't. Like I've said over and over, making everything black and white is how town loses.
:grin:
When you do not answer why, it makes it seem as though what you are saying is black or white. If you want to answer why, I'm still receptive, though you are more interested in telling me to fuck off.

Also, I don't agree with you about your boyfriend. Get over it.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

indiglo, my amusing friend. Who do you want to lynch tomorrow? I feel comfortable supporting you if it comes down to it again.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:07 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:Like, everyone just wants to say I was wrong and I should accept that and not consider I might have reasons for thinking ika was the seemer. Like, not only dismissing it outright but making snide remarks to me about being wrong and yet ANOTHER assumption I don't know ika.

Town is gonna lose this game. It makes me sad.
ika is dead now. Who is bad? And why?
No he's not. He's arrested. I still think there's a chance he's the seemer.

Scum is in the group of Soneji, Draconus, Serge, you, Boomslang, Chaindeath, Nerolunar. Black

Everyone else is town. White
Silverwolf wrote:
indiglo wrote:Ok, but how does it make sense that the scum team would bus their Seemer when most of the obvious civs are NOT on board with said lynch? It is illogical. The Seemer's strength (as I see it) is that when all the civs get real suspish of him, and decide to lynch him, he throws a wrench in their thinking by Seeming civ. That was not the case here.

The Inglorious Civsters (pardon me for using that, even though it hasn't been voted on or notorized) were not on board with the ika vote. It makes zero sense to me that ika was the Seemer. ZERO.
Discounting this possibility outright is foolish. And just because ika didn't play how you'd expect the seemer to play, doesn't mean he isn't. Like I've said over and over, making everything black and white is how town loses.
:grin:
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:49 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote:Like, everyone just wants to say I was wrong and I should accept that and not consider I might have reasons for thinking ika was the seemer. Like, not only dismissing it outright but making snide remarks to me about being wrong and yet ANOTHER assumption I don't know ika.

Town is gonna lose this game. It makes me sad.
ika is dead now. Who is bad? And why?
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:46 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:
indiglo wrote:Ok, but how does it make sense that the scum team would bus their Seemer when most of the obvious civs are NOT on board with said lynch? It is illogical. The Seemer's strength (as I see it) is that when all the civs get real suspish of him, and decide to lynch him, he throws a wrench in their thinking by Seeming civ. That was not the case here.

The Inglorious Civsters (pardon me for using that, even though it hasn't been voted on or notorized) were not on board with the ika vote. It makes zero sense to me that ika was the Seemer. ZERO.
Discounting this possibility outright is foolish. And just because ika didn't play how you'd expect the seemer to play, doesn't mean he isn't. Like I've said over and over, making everything black and white is how town loses.
Your opinion of ika- was it black and white?

I rest my case.
Fuck off
No ma'am. There can only be one infallible person around here, and that person is me, except when I'm wrong.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:35 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote:
indiglo wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:
indiglo wrote:Ok, but how does it make sense that the scum team would bus their Seemer when most of the obvious civs are NOT on board with said lynch? It is illogical. The Seemer's strength (as I see it) is that when all the civs get real suspish of him, and decide to lynch him, he throws a wrench in their thinking by Seeming civ. That was not the case here.

The Inglorious Civsters (pardon me for using that, even though it hasn't been voted on or notorized) were not on board with the ika vote. It makes zero sense to me that ika was the Seemer. ZERO.
Discounting this possibility outright is foolish. And just because ika didn't play how you'd expect the seemer to play, doesn't mean he isn't. Like I've said over and over, making everything black and white is how town loses.

Or, Occam's Razor... you were wrong. Doesn't make you scum, lord knows that. I've been wrong plenty. But coming up with outlandish stories to try to fit the facts as you want them to be seems far fetched. I will try to say no more on the subject, as I don't wish to upset. I just want my thoughts out there as clear as can be.




And now, let us make way in the thread, for wit is coming our way. JOY! ;airguitar: :p
WTF? You think that's an outlandish theory?

JFC, Whatever. Town can just lose then.
Juliets Fucking Coffee isn't playing this game, but you can PM her.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:31 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote:
indiglo wrote:Ok, but how does it make sense that the scum team would bus their Seemer when most of the obvious civs are NOT on board with said lynch? It is illogical. The Seemer's strength (as I see it) is that when all the civs get real suspish of him, and decide to lynch him, he throws a wrench in their thinking by Seeming civ. That was not the case here.

The Inglorious Civsters (pardon me for using that, even though it hasn't been voted on or notorized) were not on board with the ika vote. It makes zero sense to me that ika was the Seemer. ZERO.
Discounting this possibility outright is foolish. And just because ika didn't play how you'd expect the seemer to play, doesn't mean he isn't. Like I've said over and over, making everything black and white is how town loses.
Your opinion of ika- was it black and white?

I rest my case.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:28 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Right, because it can't be that, you know, somebody around here is wrong in their opinion. :rolleyes:

indiglo let me post or my sarcastic wit loses its keen edge.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:08 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf wrote:Sigh................

I have one little thing that concerns me about this...................
Just one?
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:06 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

sig wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:sis you're 5 for 5 on mislynches. Incredible resume.
Well It could be worse. I could have not voted. :P


HOWEVER, I went with majorly lead bandwagons on both Gleam and DDL neither of which I pushed so I shouldn't be blamed for those.
I am taking my rope to the rope sharpening store right now.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [NIGHT 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sorry I was too busy being scummy and discrediting people. :meany:
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Black Rock wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I just ate.
What did you eat?
I made pizza with Highland brewery's Gaelic Ale as a base for the crust. We had onions, sweet peppers, tomato sauce and mozzarella cheese on top.
I keep forgetting to tell you that your Thomas host banner makes playing Mafia before my three year olds bed time near impossible. He always makes me stop so he can examine it for 10 minutes repeating "Thomas!" 151 times before I can scroll. Today he saw the bloody forum and made me find a post by you so he can see the banner. Thomas is God in our house.
That's Eloh's host banner! She's better at that than I am.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I switched to Boomslang.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Quin wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I just ate.
What did you eat?
I made pizza with Highland brewery's Gaelic Ale as a base for the crust. We had onions, sweet peppers, tomato sauce and mozzarella cheese on top.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:35 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I just ate.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:21 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

ika wrote:
Turnip Head wrote: I call Silver town too and I listen to her reads like I listen to everyone's. But this isn't Follow the Leader, we're not a pack of lemmings. Everyone is going to bring their own perspective to each lynch.
I understand that but right now FMPOV silver has been the most accurate and most town read so to me shes should be the most listened to. i mean right now most people have been doign everythign else and silver has been fighting that for a while and she so far has been accurate on those so i put more stock into it
I know we lost the box ages ago, but the Mafia manual is still up in the top shelf of the closet. I recall there being a section on "What to do When Accused." I know it's still up there. I can find it for you.
by Epignosis
Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 193269

Re: [DAY 6] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Turnip Head wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Black Rock wrote:We are going to lose this game if we don't start lynching more cops.
Hello, John Madden.
Literally lol'd
I did too.

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