Ricochet wrote:So my theory so far is shaping up like this:
if the stats are correct that a 1-vote 11-player tie took place and a player gets lynched through randomization, then it must mean the player who got lynched survived the lynch, according to his position 1
ergo any of the following players (BWT, Canuck, Epignosis, Golden, MP, Russ, SVS, Tranq, Unfurl, Wilgy - I'm not, but feel free to throw me in as well; I would have super dead and super pissed if I would have been lynched or if the Day would have ended with me having two votes) can be:
Ubzargan the Ruthless - Immune to NK/Lynch
Jilted Lover - Can’t die as long as ? alive
I don't believe that Lord of Thunder's +/-3 votes would have changed this situation, if he already manipulated something by the time the Day ended. either he added votes and then there is definitely a specific survivor, which Lordy may now choose to try to hint at; either he substracted votes and it's still a large pool of tied players and the theory above still applies, but with vague chances of pinpointing at anyone in particular
same with Windscout, we don't know how many votes he can take down, but I doubt it's up to 10
I'm not sure if The Immortal's random power can activate during the Day, but even if it can, it's really a stretch to imagine that he protected someone that early and the stars aligned so that the one person he randomly protected was the one person that randomly got lynched; plus, we haven't seen a second death
same with Terras. can he protect during the Day? if so, same stretch of the imagination
If I missed anything, let me know, but so far I believe this to be the conclusion: our non-lynched player today is Uzbargan or the Jilted Lover. unfortunately we have 11 candidates for this spot
What if both Windscout and Lord of Thunder had used their abilities? Were there more than 8 votes at the time the lynch ended?
Actually, looking back now, it looks like there were. So there goes my theory out the window.
I guess the only thing I can think that happened is that the Lord of Thunder moved votes onto someone who was unlynchable at the time. It's the only possibility I can see in the role listing that makes sense.
Unless a lynch pardon actually WAS used in time. But someone would have had to be pretty quick to get that in before the day was ended early. So I'm going to consider that possibility very unlikely.
Linki: I didn't think at the time I was at risk of a sudden lynch train that came straight on at me later on, so it was more of a funny/sarcastic comment that I forgot to put in orange.