The Syndicate

If Eloh is the marker and visited Fred on night 1 then Fred would have blown up with Golden and Quin unless Jack targeted Fred night 3. I can't remember if Jack told us who he targeted night 3. If he did and it wasn't Fred then I don't think MP is the marker. Golden had no reason to lie about seeing Eloh on Fred.

See if that logic makes sense.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wait. If Golden targeted himself then it works.

Golden watches Golden.

Elohcin switches Golden with Fredwood. Golden instead watches Fredwood.

I think Golden watched himself and lied about the target because it would make no sense for a civilian watcher to self-target.

EXCEPT this is from Golden's role reveal:

"You cannot choose to visit yourself."

Just a question here about MP since we are basically discounting him as the marker or the last mafia. He says Eloh targeted Golden and Fred. If Golden targeted JJJ and saw Eloh on Fred does that jive with Eloh targeting Fred and Golden? I never fully worked this out to my own satisfaction.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Do each of you think you could name two lead prospects to be the marker (if you've already done so, please just restate)?

I still see Fred as a prospect. I haven't read Dyslexicon back yet so I'll hold on my other. Right now I am seeing Strawhenge as least likely based on my read back which shows he has been behind or not here most of the game and I think the marker would have had to keep up. I'm aware that could just be a ruse though. Wish I knew him better. If speedchuck ends up being my other prospect it will be because he has been smart as a whip all game and your analysis indicated he's a possibility.

screwed up those quotes dang it

speedchuck wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
But regarding arbitrariness: It seems like the correct picks for the marker to make are people that town wouldn't lynch and that mafia wouldn't kill. Looking at both of those things, your analysis doesn't seem as relevant.

But that's just my opinion on what the marker should have done. Obviously they didn't do that.

One thing that occurred to me is the marker was trying to take out mafia first because after silver lantern's death the mafia are the highest threat to him. Civs can't kill him, the mafia can. Maybe someone already pointed this out.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I would like to hear what everyone thinks about this methodology I am employing to hunt for the marker. I have my reasons for doing the work; tell me what potential you believe it has to yield results.

At least it's methodical. I don't know of a good method to find an sk, never have been good at figuring it out, so from my standpoint it's got a higher potential of yielding results than what I'm doing which is just reading back on people. I feel like we probably should have divided them up and done them so you didn't have to do all the in-thread work.

Oops I hit enter too soon. speedchuck what are you referring too when you say "bus driver's still alive though". That role is a little confusing so I'm not connecting it with JJJ still being alive.

linki - Oh thanks JJJ. All these new terms.

speedchuck wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

speedchuck wrote:Gotcha.

This is a special technique of speedchuck's called 'Mining the Townfirm.' In this technique, speedchuck asks the townfirm a ton of questions, expecting to get well-intentioned answers.

I encourage that method, and would also call it on-topic.

I expected to start dealing with some tinfoiling by now though. Why are y'all so comfortable with Mr. Confirmed Townie being alive right now?

A role that we haven't seen yet is miller/godfather. Even though JJJ has publicly been named town, that doesn't mean he couldn't be scum!

Think about it.

Then immediately discard that train of thought into trash canyon, as JJJ is a proven tracker, and we know that he couldn't have gotten his results from other roles based on what flipped and what Golden learned. It is completely impossible that he is scum, or third party based on what we know of markers.

Not to mention that even if he was mafia, the 3p has no reason to leave him alive, and vice versa, so even tinfoil wouldn't explain his continued life.

Busdriver's still alive though.

Ah I didn't think about the tracking results proving that he's town. Good. Also, is a miller/godfather the same thing I call a recruiter?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

speedchuck wrote:Gotcha.

This is a special technique of speedchuck's called 'Mining the Townfirm.' In this technique, speedchuck asks the townfirm a ton of questions, expecting to get well-intentioned answers.

I encourage that method, and would also call it on-topic.

I expected to start dealing with some tinfoiling by now though. Why are y'all so comfortable with Mr. Confirmed Townie being alive right now?

I actually had the fleeting thought that maybe there was a baddie recruiter or the marker could recruit but dismissed it as giving too much power to the baddie team or the marker. I never thought there would be 6 baddies though. I guess at the end of the day I figure the baddies think you're the most likely target for protection. Also, they may have tried to get you when Sloonei died. Maybe I'm just naive and want to trust you so bad that I'm rationalizing.

linki will read after I post

Fredwood wrote:

juliets wrote:

Fredwood wrote:Considering we've been avoiding the hammer the entire game all of the sudden we're not worried about it? I mean we had people warning against the hammer when there was 3 votes on Sig on day 1.

How are they Icky? If I wasn't here I wasn't here. What, I should get voted because I wasn't around? People post in thread about not being around because of out of thread reasons. In fact nearly everyone has posted one, and additionally I posted one that I was going to miss almost the entire weekend. I don't see how pointing that out is "icky" if people pre-emptively explain their absence, why is it out of bounds to point to the fact that I said I wasn't going to be around?

Time delay is a stretch, the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked, can bypass protection, and can set the bombs off during the day...giving them a time delay is totally skewed in his favor, it breaks the role.

Thanks Fred. Sorry to be a pest about role things but what does it mean that the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked? Can a tracker or watcher not see a marker for some reason?

If a watcher seems them target someone, and if nothing untowards happened that night, there's no way for the Tracker to know that they were marked. Similar to why the Doctor won't be able to protect them. It is interesting that Dys vest didn't block the kill as well.

Additionally, it really doesn't make sense why the marker would choose that time to blow up the people who they did when they did. They weren't in danger of being lynched or pressured, in fact there was very little talk of the marker or push to get the marker after it was brought up. Town was preoccupied with trying to eliminate all the targets, then they go an blow up the people that are buying them time. Conceivably we would have had to take 3 days to lynch all the people that were killed that day thus giving the marker relative freedom to continue doing his dirty deeds.

I haven't really seen anyone comment on the strategy, I really don't know if it gives us any leads, just seems very bizarre to blow their wad at that time.

That's very true, the timing doesn't make a lot of sense. We were all about getting a baddie, not the marker. The only people that seemed in danger of being lynched were Golden, Quin, and LC. Nobody else was even in the picture so it doesn't make sense that the marker was scared he was going to be lynched. I don't get it unless there is something about the role we are not understanding.

Fredwood wrote:Considering we've been avoiding the hammer the entire game all of the sudden we're not worried about it? I mean we had people warning against the hammer when there was 3 votes on Sig on day 1.

How are they Icky? If I wasn't here I wasn't here. What, I should get voted because I wasn't around? People post in thread about not being around because of out of thread reasons. In fact nearly everyone has posted one, and additionally I posted one that I was going to miss almost the entire weekend. I don't see how pointing that out is "icky" if people pre-emptively explain their absence, why is it out of bounds to point to the fact that I said I wasn't going to be around?

Time delay is a stretch, the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked, can bypass protection, and can set the bombs off during the day...giving them a time delay is totally skewed in his favor, it breaks the role.

Thanks Fred. Sorry to be a pest about role things but what does it mean that the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked? Can a tracker or watcher not see a marker for some reason?

speedchuck wrote:

juliets wrote:Thanks sprityo.

I also have another mechanics question for anyone who wants to answer it. Since the mafia had a doctor, does that mean they could protect one of their own against the marker's blow up? Or would they have protected against the mark itself?

Doctors usually work at night. Mafia blow-up happened during the day.
And if doctors worked against marks, we wouldn't need an anti-marker.

Fredwood wrote:I'm not the marker simply because I simply wasn't on Sunday. I don't know if that's a great defense, I don't see how I could set off the bomb if I wasn't near my PC and I don't mafia on phone if I'm playing catch up.

Second, and probably the better reason, I'm also not the one who ended the phase 2 hours early with a hammer vote. Just saying.

I mean, I was at church when the explosion happened. I could literally show a schedule and everything. But that isn't the point. We have no way of getting knowledge on whether the marker could schedule or delay activations, and out-of-game pleas are icky.

As for your second, and 'better' reason, I'm not sure what you're on about. Clearly a jab at me, but I have no idea how it pertains to the marker. I don't see a two hour early hammer as being scummy.

I was trying to figure out why the mafia had a doctor at all but I just remembered there was an alternate night vig so it makes sense now.

I also don't see the relationship between the hammer and baddie play. Fred could you explain what you are seeing there?

Thanks sprityo.

I also have another mechanics question for anyone who wants to answer it. Since the mafia had a doctor, does that mean they could protect one of their own against the marker's blow up? Or would they have protected against the mark itself?

speedchuck wrote:

juliets wrote:What would lead you to believe that I am a baddie?

Currently, Process of Elimination.
It's not Me, it's not JJJ, and I feel like you didn't claim protective, so I'm tentatively giving that to Dizzy. That leave you, Straw, and Fred in my focus right now. I'll be reading over you three today.

You're looking the best of the three before a reread though, if that makes you feel better.

Also, I went back to the beginning. MP is still around. That makes this not MYLO in any way, shape, form, stench, gesture, pose, or fashion. Good news there. More good news: He's basically confirmed town with the busdriver thing. Doesn't change my area of suspicion much, but it does make me happier about the situation.

Ok thanks for the explanation.

What would lead you to believe that I am a baddie?

speedchuck, since you hail from sprityo's site what's your thought on what kind of bad person we have left? Do you think it's more likely just a serial killer who's inherited the baddie kill? Or do you think there are two people, another baddie and a serial killer marker? Also, do you think this marker is like the arsonist role that Dys talked about?

Dyslexicon wrote: Spped:

speedchuck wrote:Hey guys, I'm back.

I'm crying right now I just can't.

What.

Hammer Long Con

This "Hey, guys, I'm back" is suspicious to me. Looks like putting emphasis on being away.
Can someone check if Speed has had posts like that earlier in this game? (I have to go now, or else I'll check this myself tonight).

I found this post that he posted after he had been out of the thread for several hours:

speedchuck wrote:Hello, yes, I am speedchuck. How may I be of service?

I also see three posts that started with "catching up" indicating he had been away.

MP has 3 stars by his name designating he's asked to be replaced?? Has that been there the whole time? I don't understand...he just got here...

Dyslexicon wrote:Alright. Can we revisit the Golden/Eloh/Fred/JJJ target switch mindfuckery?
Golden said he targeted JJJ, but got Fred as a result.
Golden was probably full of shit, but not so shitty that it could easily be discovered he was lying.
MP says Eloh targeted Golden and Fred and switched them.
Would it be reasonable to assume that Golden tried watching himself?

If self targeting is allowed in these games this would make sense to me. Otherwise, I don't understand how JJJ fits into the equation if Elo targeted Fred and Golden. To your later point Dys, MP could be lying, it just didn't strike me that he was given he gave the information so quickly when asked without knowing much (we presume) about the game.

I also agree this will be a hard decision on who to lynch. Since JJJ said he suspected Fred for the marker prior to our communication being cut off yesterday I took a look back at Fred's recent posts. I thought this post was interesting:
because when MP came into the thread my only thought was finding out who Elo targeted on Night 1 so we could get that issue resolved. It seems that Fred had "bomb" on the brain which I know shows nothing more than it was top of mind but why was it top of mind? I think it's possible that he is the marker and knew he would soon be blowing up Quin and Golden and wanted this post to be out there to make it look like he wasn't the marker, if that makes sense.

Also Dyslexicon thanks for the explanation of the arsonist. Maybe that is how the marker works in this game which would mean Scotty was indeed killed by mafia.

EBWOP: In my second sentence it should say "to mark and explode people again and again"

I forgot I have a mechanics question. Is it common for the demo man to mark and explode people and then be able to make and explode people again and again? I'm only familiar with mechanics that allow one explosion, though that is with a bomb which is a little bit different.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:speedchuck
Elohcin/MovingPictures07
DFaraday/juliets
Fredwood
Strawhenge
Dyslexicon

Tell me why you're not a threat.

I'm not sure what you're looking for here but I'll try. I think my adding to the negative thoughts about Quin (even though my confidence wasn't strong) speaks to me not being mafia. And I think the fact that I knew something that caused me to question Quin shows I'm not the marker because how would the marker know something that would cause him to have doubts about Quin?

If there's a mafia left I'm not sure why they would choose to kill Scotty last night instead of someone who could potentially be the rogue. I guess Scotty could have been rogue but I think we all found his claim of stump to be believable. Also, wouldn't 13:6 be way beyond the normal ratio for civ to baddie? I guess anything is possible.

I still need to read your analyses in depth JJJ I just wanted to get your question answered before I spent time on that.

For some reason I thought we weren't allowed to post after the hammer came down.

JJJ what is fueling your read that it's Fredwood? My read was total gut and based on who has been here today.

My guess is speedchuck.

But isn't the game over if we lynch LC?

All we need is one more!

And thank you Demo man, you are a hero!

oh I see - we started the vote over at the event?

Ok so

Vote Long Con

Oh wow - wth -

Whats the current vote count? Can I just vote now?

I can't believe this is over!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I don't really think Dizzy looks like a good candidate to be an independent at face value, particularly not one who would be LMS or otherwise anti-town. They've played the whole game more care-free than anyone, but not without still providing a great deal of useful reads content. I see someone who is motivated to solve the game by necessity, not for appearances. They've not been afraid to poke other players regardless of who; they've rocked the boat.

What do others see in Dizzy that they fear might be indy-applicable?

I had actually changed my mind since I made my list early this morning, I just haven't updated my reads in the thread. I now see Dyslexicon as straight town without the indy possibility.

Speedchuck was your previous read of Dyslexicon slight town? If so, could you talk about why you moved him to neutral?

JJJ can you talk about your speedchuck read or did you already do that somewhere? I remember an interaction analysis where you said he didn't look like a white knight (something like that) but I don't remember anything else.

Re-reading Golden I had just worked out in my mind that the only thing that made sense was he got the vest from a civ. It's the only thing that I can see in light of LC getting the night right so quickly when he said he gave the gun to Sloonei.

Golden moves out of my slight scum area.

Not voting yet though, don't want to get close to hammer.

To the best of my ability at this point. I haven't read all of Golden so I am reading him today.

JJJ - civ
Moving Pictures - civ - don't think he read the earlier parts of the game and claimed bus driver quickly which made sense (if I followed the argument correctly) with what Golden had claimed
Scotty - civ - don't think he would have made up stump

Dyslexicon - light civ - just a little less sure because Golden put the thought in my head that he could be indy; still reading as civ though.
speedchuck - light civ - I've had him here all game and don't see a reason to change; see above though
Fredwood - light civ - see above but Soneji's votes do not feel like a bus
Strawhenge - light civ - see above but otherwise the fact that Soneji forgot him influences me - wish he could post more though; tempted to rate him null but I'm trying not to use that category
The above 4 are about equal in my mind. Note they are all people I don't know well so that might be why I see them so close to each other.

Quin - light scum - he voted for himself at the last minute which gives me pause but he could have done this as a risky gamble that votes would fall away from him; I don't see why he had to claim doctor so fast - why not take the time to re-read Nut's posts to try and cue him as to why he didn't trust her; it's possible though that he's not lying and I am just not understanding how his claim could be true (I've decided that redundancy is not there) which is why I don't have him as pure scum.

Golden - light scum - he says he doesn't lie when bad so that might account for him claiming vest; I like his reads but he could have easily made them conform to what he thinks civs would say; Soneji wanted him shot knowing he presumably had the vest; votes Quin but says soneji is the right vote at the point when the voting is over; JJJ seems satisfied with his targets which keeps me from going full scum, though Golden if you're reading this I don't understand Eloh as a target if you could talk about that a little.

Long Con - scum - I don't think I need to explain this one

Don't worry about me dropping a vote this early, I agree we should make the most of trying to talk things through this day.

LC you are reminding me of I think it was MP in Masters of the Universe, an outted baddie taunting the thread.

JJJ I feel the same about the day yesterday. We need to talk about something, I don't want to be complacent. I also don't want to wait until 10 tonight to debate who we are going to vote. The linki was terrible in that last EOD, I couldn't comprehend what I needed to or respond quickly enough to people who were asking me questions or question things I wanted to question. Add that to the fact that I'm at my worst late (and 10-11 is late for me) and it made for a very stressful environment. Let's not do that to ourselves again.

Golden in general I like your reads list but I do have a question. Can you be more specific about what posts of speedchuck seem wonky? I'll read back on him and see if I can identify what you're talking about but it would sure help if you could point to something even if it's just a general statement. I've been reading him as light civ. I agree I wish Fred would vote BUT I can understand how he got stuck in linki this last round and I think Soneji using him as a "whipping boy" helps clear him for me.

I re-read the Quin/Jack interaction from the other day and I'm missing how claiming doctor helped get Quin out of hot water with respect to not remembering why he didn't trust nutella. Maybe he was just saying "I'll tell you why you should trust me even though I can't remember why I didn't trust nut, I'm the doctor". I feel like this has probably been addressed somewhere if someone could help me out by pointing back to it or just tell me who was involved in the conversation and I'll find it from there. I take it from Quin's not wanting to talk about this any more that he will not answer me.

Ok, on with the day.

I thought Golden was going to give some reads? Did I misunderstand?

I count 11 currently alive.

Golden wrote:Vote golden

I agree it's for the best.

Why is it for the best if you are town?

Scotty wrote:

juliets wrote:Also Quin thanks for explaining the stump in more detail. I don't know where Scotty played before (Scotty where have you played before?) but I have never heard of this role coming up on the syndicate. Is it a role that comes up a lot elsewhere? I tend to read Scotty as light civ at the moment.

I just saw this.
I started on Jesus Toast Mafia before migrating here due to stagnation. I've never heard of a stump either. I looked it up and it says that it commonly has an opposing wood cutter mechanism from the baddies that could eliminate me once I activated, so that, coupled with my lack of supatown presence, has kept me on edge.

Also I lied. I never was role blocked on night 2 (or maybe I was, I just didn't do anything). I merely didn't want to activate until i haaaad to and didn't feel like claiming fully yet. I also lied in that I forgot to activate on night 3. I don't forget night actions. I just don't want to activate if I can help it because it's counterproductive.

Thanks Scotty and thanks for coming clean on the fact that you lied. Interesting that there's commonly a woodcutter, another role I've never heard of. One thing is for sure I'm gaining an awful lot of knowledge about potential roles.

I just re-read Sloonei's role and now I see probably why he died. Duh. I had not had my coffee when I asked that question.

Scotty wrote:

juliets wrote:

Scotty wrote:

juliets wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:Also, can we move past the who did what on what night? Golden is being a bit dense about taking in information. And everyone is confused about something they don't even need to care about.

I'm sorry if it's annoying. I don't understand it and until I do I have to ask questions. It's the only way I know how to play mafia.

Since we're still on that track, where do you currently stand on the Quin claim? (I know Quin doesn't want this brought up again, but its as muddy as a an ogre swamp in here) are you saying you have information that conflicts definitely, or that you think conflicts probably?

I think it conflicts probably. If I knew more about character set-up of closed games I might be able to say conflicts definitely.

I still know nothing, but that's ok- I'm in a good place.

I just saw A Dogs Purpose last night and now I'm crying like a bitch. For the 12th time since.

That's why I don't go to movies about pets. Would never make it through.

Scotty wrote:

juliets wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:Also, can we move past the who did what on what night? Golden is being a bit dense about taking in information. And everyone is confused about something they don't even need to care about.

I'm sorry if it's annoying. I don't understand it and until I do I have to ask questions. It's the only way I know how to play mafia.

Since we're still on that track, where do you currently stand on the Quin claim? (I know Quin doesn't want this brought up again, but its as muddy as a an ogre swamp in here) are you saying you have information that conflicts definitely, or that you think conflicts probably?

I think it conflicts probably. If I knew more about character set-up of closed games I might be able to say conflicts definitely.

Dyslexicon wrote:Also, can we move past the who did what on what night? Golden is being a bit dense about taking in information. And everyone is confused about something they don't even need to care about.

I'm sorry if it's annoying. I don't understand it and until I do I have to ask questions. It's the only way I know how to play mafia.

Scotty wrote:Ah. And votes are not changeable in this poll I just found out.
So..maybe don't just pick a direction like I just did

Oh wow, thanks for the warning.

Scotty wrote:

Golden wrote:I do have the vest.

I've been played like a fiddle. I know I have to be lynched after lc, I can't be at lylp at this point. It sucks.

But I do think we are on solid track to win this despite me, so go town!

So you say you've been set up? That Mafia spent a night phase- Soneji's only real night phase to use his power- to give you a protective vest, and you're good? That's like taking antibiotics for bronchitis when I sprain my knee. What a 'Long Con' that would be.

Golden, if Soneji gave you the vest on night 2 then who gave Sloonei the gun on night 2? Am I just confused about the night 2 actions?

Just answering some questions from the night and then asking a question. Hopefully I got everything:

speedchuck wrote: Also, Juliets: Could the protection you ran across be a vest in any way?

No sorry, I wish it could be explained by a phenomena like this.

speedchuck wrote: Just saying: Juliets and Quin are not claiming the same role. Numerous elements point to that.

Correct.

Quin wrote:juliets, when did you come to the conclusion that it's likely that I'm not town based on my role claim?

The night I brought it out for the first time in here. That was Feb. 22, looks like it was the first night of Day 4.

Quin wrote:

juliets wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

juliets wrote:**Because he seems to have disappeared but unlike Elo hasn't asked for replacement. I need to read through his posts.

Thanks for the reads, juliets. I think you forgot Elohcin though; where'd she be situated on the ol' rainbow?

I think I also forgot Quin.

Quin would be in light green and Eloh would be in yellow.

What information could juliets have received mid-day that would make me fall from light green to a vote (I think)?

I clarified something with the host.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: She requested an updated case against Soneji, granting that she was aware of the Marmot interactions. This is a little curious given her prior stance that he was a top suspect on her reads list.

I had forgotten what other people were seeing that was so damning. I had momentarily forgotten the part about Soneji sitting out the EOD on INH v. Jack by sitting on Fred which was part of the reason for my finding Soneji at the bottom of my reads list early that morning.

Quin wrote:

juliets wrote:So then for those who think Quin is civ, the dynamic would be he was blocked by the good role blocker and JJJ by the baddie role blocker?

Were we considering good and bad variants of the same role at this point in Day 4?

I don't know the answer to this question but I have been considering any possible way you could be good and what I know could be true, so I am twisting and turning roles in my head.

Golden wrote:I do have the vest.

I've been played like a fiddle. I know I have to be lynched after lc, I can't be at lylp at this point. It sucks.

But I do think we are on solid track to win this despite me, so go town!

I hope this isn't a stupid question but when did you get the vest? And why would they give a vest to a civ instead of giving it to one of their own?

With sprityo's answer to JJJ's question LC really looks bad. I don't see a way he could be good at this point but maybe there is something I'm not seeing. I'm not going to vote for him yet because as someone pointed out there is no hurry and it's not a good thing I don't think for us to pile up votes fast.

Also Quin thanks for explaining the stump in more detail. I don't know where Scotty played before (Scotty where have you played before?) but I have never heard of this role coming up on the syndicate. Is it a role that comes up a lot elsewhere? I tend to read Scotty as light civ at the moment.

Why did Sloonei die? I understand he was confirmed civ but we have another confirmed civ and someone who is claiming doctor. Why him over others?

Long Con wrote:

juliets wrote:

Golden wrote:I'm feeling very ok with either soneji or quin lynches, but I'll stick my vote where it is in any event because it helps me stay sane and avoid hammer shenanigans.

I agree.

Wait Fred this not quite right.

If I am right there are two odd night doctorings. That doesn't necessarily mean another odd night doctor if you get my meaning. Sorry if thats how it came across. I'm shit at explaining this I know.

linki 1000 times

Two odd night doctors is... less likely. Explain? We have 13 minutes still.

My information says there is a doctor out there which would mean if Quin is an odd night doctor there are two doctors operating on the odd nights.

Golden wrote:I'm feeling very ok with either soneji or quin lynches, but I'll stick my vote where it is in any event because it helps me stay sane and avoid hammer shenanigans.

I agree.

Wait Fred this not quite right.

If I am right there are two odd night doctorings. That doesn't necessarily mean another odd night doctor if you get my meaning. Sorry if thats how it came across. I'm shit at explaining this I know.

linki 1000 times