The Syndicate

Sorsha your vote analysis was helpful. I think between Scotty's analysis, my comments and Epi's comment we've pretty much covered made so I'm going to move on to INH.

Made that explains this week but this game has been going on since Jan. 11th.

Long Con wrote:

Scotty wrote:

Long Con wrote:I predict a Made lynch today.

Does that mean you suspect him?
Or that he will just accrue votes?

I would say that I suspect him as much as you and juliets seem to. I would vote for him. I think he will accrue votes because I think most people will generally agree with the analysis, and unless a stronger case comes forward, he'll get most votes.

LC, the only thing I have said about Made is that his participation rate looks suspect. I haven't examined his posts yet, and I do remember Epi made a good point about him yesterday from the standpoint of being civ that I need to look back at.

Made, I mentioned before you were the second highest poster in the original Felt game. In a more recent game, Vocaroo, you were in the top 4 posters. Here, you are the lowest poster still alive and that includes me who's not been in the game as long. Is there a reason for this I should consider? It looks like you are trying to lay low.

insertnamehere wrote:Can we also discuss how weird the Quin NK was, especially considering he would probably be a top candidate for today?

Feels like an odd choice to me.

I agree. He received the second most votes and I would have seen him as a top lynch candidate for today. He did mention he knew who the denim suit was and I think someone said earlier maybe he was killed because he knew at least one other civ for sure. His most consistent suspicion looking at his late posts seemed to have been Boomslang. I posted about Booms earlier and right now am not considering a vote there. He also made a somewhat cryptic post that was something like "I just realized a thing. Not something I want to share". (sorry for not pulling the quote but I think my paraphrase is pretty close). don't know if maybe that meant something to someone.

People have said that Scotty has been blendy this game and that his focus on game mechanics has been just to have something to say. Here is a reason I can see not to vote him however. After voting for Wilgy early which might be seen as a vote on a candidate he did not think was going to be lynched he then later in the lynch argued more that Wilgy should be lynched. I don't know that his argument caused people to vote for Wilgy but I note that several people voted Wilgy after he made this post:

Scotty wrote:Yeah I'm entrenched in sound check right now but I will offer two things:
-JJJ had offered a half-hearted desire to lynch Wilgy, then offers an equal-to-less hearted desire to lynch Made, and starts a train there. I think that is a better look for Made tbh. I already don't trust JJJ this game, and would propose that Wilgy may be his teammate.
-Wilgy case into the thread seemingly eager to participate, but i found his posts spend too long asking others what they thought of so-and-so instead of substantive reads. His top 3 were 2 people and "???", which is unnecessary. I think Wilgy is active enough to be submitting kills but very blends this game.

I'm comfortable with my vote there today and his subsequent lynch.

Maybe he was doing this for bussing purposes but it comes off as genuine to me. I didn't however pick up on the hints. I'm terrible at that though as I said earlier.

Now I'll take a look at made.

Scotty wrote: <snip>
A person, MP, DDL, Elo and Made missed the vote. Out of those, we know DDL was bad, A Person was indie, Elo was NK'd, and MPnowjuliets and Made were non represented in Day 1.

Llama, JJJ and I voted off the main wagons. Out of those, llama and JJJ have been NK'd. I was basically a non-factor on Day 1.

Now for inferences.
I find it more likely than not that the mafia would want to split up the voting in day 1. That one of the DDL voters is probably a busser. I find it highly unlikely that 2 are bussers. Because that's just metal.

We know 1 baddie (Wilgy) attempted a save attempt on the llama wagon. Were there others in LC/INH? Dunno.

Made and [juliets] were absent, and I find it also likely that one of them is bad and missed the vote entirely. OR chose a different wagon, which would leave me. But since I know I'm good, I'm looking squarely at juliets and Made.

I have my doubts about INH and LC being bad, tbh, Based on thread context and personal gut.
Which could mean that both juliets and Made are bad, or one of them is bad and 1 of the DDL voters is driving the last bus to Clarksville.

I can't defend on MP missing the vote other than to say Im pretty sure he was at a conference and that's why he missed (I read that somewhere but can't remember where). Also, as JJJ pointed out I could have easily slid by that first night I was in the game because I subbed in just hours before the lynch vote but I participated in an open and honest way. I did the same yesterday as I assessed who to vote for even though my final vote was obviously wrong. I know I am good Scotty so by your logic that would leave either you or made or both as baddies. I will assess you both at some point today. I have no wish to out myself but have also hinted at my role. I will look for your hints when I take a look at your posts.

Long Con wrote:Why shouldn't we vote for Scotty?

Why should we? I'll look at Scotty next and attempt to answer your question. It may be a little while though.

I want to eliminate Boomslang due to the attempted night kill and his votes for Wilgy and DDL but maybe the baddies were really spooked after the DDL kill and decided to protect Booms and try to kill him. Maybe they had him vote for the two baddies to lend to his bulletproofness. They haven't tried to kill him again which makes me wonder.

Even I though recognize that this is highly improbable and is likely just me tinfoiing. It would have been a brilliant move in my mind but I don't think they would have given up a night kill right after one of their own was killed. And Boom's votes for the baddies seem genuine to me. So unless you guys feel differently I think I'll knock Booms off my list.

Booms, the below quote was from early in the game when you had some suspicion of Sorsha. Have you changed your view on this as time has passed? I need to re-read the issue of Sorsha's timing regarding responding to llama. I'm a little confused as to what the issue was. (I snipped the end of this post as it didn't relate to what Im asking about.)

Boomslang wrote:Alright, finally catching up on all of this. Biggest thread of the thread so far seems to be the Sorsha/Llama spat, and I'm leaning slightly bad on Sorsha because of it. I think JJJ's analysis of the response timing and nature is useful:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: I can understand. It's jarring for anyone to be facing an accusation so quickly after a game begins. His accusation came two minutes after your post, as you said, and then your joke response to that came 11 minutes after that. To me that looks a player who is briefly frozen by unexpected pressure searching for a way to approach it.

Sorsha wrote:All for one line and an emoticon? Seriously? How am I supposed to respond to that?

In terms of defense, you're probably not supposed to respond to that. Some accusations don't facilitate defense. It isn't ideal, but a civilian must still render them when they apply. Instead of a defense, I would anticipate a more exploratory response to llama than the one you provided -- even if you believed it was a joke.

However, I think JJJ got away with blaming Sorsha for the use of timestamps. Sorsha just used the phrase "literally two minutes" to describe llama's post. JJJ then emphasizes Sorsha's own timing on his own, and in a later post says, "I wasn't going to mention the timestamps until you brought them up first." That strikes me as shifty.

<snip>

I feel like I have to go through everyone today as I had ruled out everyone but Quin and LC. Maybe I shouldn't have ruled out the people that voted for both Wilgy and DDL. I think we each should go through each person available to vote and compare what we think. I hope there is a lot of conversation today.

Rip Quin. I don't understand your death. Maybe I will tomorrow once I read back over your posts the last day.

Scotty wrote:Man sorry llama. Wish we knew more about his secret role.

Yo Quin, you said you figured out who you think the Denim Shirt is.

Care to enlighten?

He actually said he knew who the denim suit is, not the denim shirt, not that I guess it matters.

thellama73 wrote:

juliets wrote:Geez we still have two hours to go. I'm all wined up tonight woo hoo! so will probably asleep by that time.

Join me in a glass of port?

Of course! I will sip it while watching Homeland (recorded).

Rip llama. I am sad.

Mongoose, sorry about your power and your food. Beyond losing the food I feel for you trying to get ready for work in the dark with no power. Been there during the year of our hurricanes. Hope you get your power back today.

Looks like llama got the lynch unless the vote manips came into play. Hoping he's bad.

I'm going to bed.

I think Quin's votes look slightly worse than LC's votes because Quin's votes tied up the Lynch for DDL and Wilgy so I'm voting for Quin this round. I hope llama is bad given the number of votes on him. I'm pretty sure he is not the denim shirt.

LC, if you think his axis of evil theory doesn't have credibility then who do you think is his baddie partner?

Well shit.

Scotty wrote:So to @Sorsha and @Boomslang is a big reason you aren't looking to vote llama because you have a proclivity to not vote presumably silenced players?

I don't think llama could say anything here that would make me reach into my baseball bag and put on my practice glove any more. I kinda think I'm ready for the majors, tbh.

Scotty, Boomslang has already voted for Quin which is where I'm most likely to vote. llama may well be bad but I'm not convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt which I would have to be to vote someone who is silenced and hasn't been able to respond to suspicions.

Scotty wrote:

Long Con wrote:

Scotty wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Damn I just realized too that I missed juliets' big ass post up there.

ass post

juliets' big ass

i missed juliets' big ass

Long Con wrote:What are peoples' opinions of nijuu? I can't remember why she's generally seen as Civ. Is it voting records?

Yes, she voted for both DDL and Wilgy in the early to middle range of votes.

Epignosis, what are you thinking about where your vote might go today?

Boomslang wrote:

juliets wrote:Ugh, in looking at Quin's votes he tied up the alternate lynch candidate in both the DDL and Wilgy lynches. That's a bad look. Boomslang and Sorsha if you're still here what are you looking at when you see Quin as bad?

His voting record, combined with his devil-may-care attitude. But I've been pretty aggro against him all game, so just see my post history?

Ok thanks, I have not reviewed your posts since you're on my "won't vote for list" so I'll do that.

Long Con wrote:And Juliets, as for my non-suspicion of Epi... I can't really remember anything specific and concrete, I just remember being struck by certain posts and thought processes he's put forth as very Civvish. Would evil Epi jump on replacing Civ Eloh so sharply? Maybe. I just think he's Civ.

Yeah after I reviewed the events leading up to his DDL vote I moved him to my "not going to vote for" list.

Ugh, in looking at Quin's votes he tied up the alternate lynch candidate in both the DDL and Wilgy lynches. That's a bad look. Boomslang and Sorsha if you're still here what are you looking at when you see Quin as bad?

I don't believe Quin is the denim shirt.

With that said, I did go back and look at his play in Mad Max. He bussed his teammate Eloh in that game which makes me wonder if he's bad why he didn't bus a teammate in this one. I need to refresh my memory on the timing of his votes in the baddie lynches in this game.

I agree Boomslang re:being tied in knots over the JJJ NK and what it means about LC.

Long Con wrote:Juliets, I don't think any of those three are a good choice... posting on my phone from my mom's, be home in a bit for more.

Sorry didn't see this before I posted. I'm interested to hear what you have to say.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Let the record show, Epignosis has bussed a teammate once in his life, and it was Dragon D. Luffy on Day 1.

I figured I'd explore this comparison to be safe. I can actually recall another instance of Epi bussing a teammate: Scotty on Day 1 of Red vs. Blue. So I'll look at both.

~ In Guess Who, Epi was aggressive against him teammate DDL. In the process of that aggression though, he repeatedly called DDL a suspect alongside Black Rock, who was a civilian. In this regard, mafioso Epi left himself the space to either go through with the bus job or push a civilian instead depending upon how circumstances developed. He voted DDL on Days 1 and 2 (the latter resulting in a lynch). The two of them engaged in a lengthy exchange throughout, painting a cleaner image of distance to maximize the value of the bus.

This all contrasts this game in that Epi was narrower in his anti-DDL maneuver (we don't know the alignments of anyone else he has expressed concern about, but he was singular in his desire to lynch DDL anyway). There were also no distancing exchanges given DDL's absence.

~ In Red vs. Blue, Epi was more direct and singular in his Day 1 move against Scotty. He addressed Scotty directly with an accusation, pressed the issue a few times to incite a response (presumably as it was being discussed in BTSC), and left his vote on him. In this case though, the deadline was in the morning which I believe left Epi in a tough spot in terms of being present in the end. He was only barely there for a single post in the hours approaching EOD and didn't have many opportunities to move his vote. In this regard it may have been a sort of half-accidental bus job.

The directness of his accusation in this example matches more closely with what we see in this game. The timing of the vote is very different though, which is a crucial thing given that he essentially killed DDL himself in this game by placing the swing vote.

~~~

After review, I think calling Epignosis a teammate of DDL in this game is more conspiracy theory than reasoned thinking.

Just for good measure, I would add that I would not have thrown DDL under the bus if we were teammates simply because, if I recall correctly, Guess Who? was the only opportunity he's had on The Syndicate to be bad- I would want him to be able to play and have the experience. Even as I write this I feel sort of bad.

Sorry DDL the person. Not sorry DDL's role!

I reviewed Epi's DDL case and his swing vote against DDL, and the post above by JJJ that contrasts his style with DDL here against the time he bussed him in an earlier game. All this leads me to remove Epi from the list of people I'm considering voting for today.

Ok I have so far ruled out:

Boomslang
Blooper
Sorsha
Scotty
thellama73 - unless someone brings forth evidence that I find compelling
Made
INH - he said he was using his Lynch immunity today so even if I was inclined to vote him I wouldn't do it today.

leaving:

Long Con
Epi
Quin

Epi - if I remember correctly Epi went hard after DDL early on and even though he has been known to bus people, including DDL, I remember thinking and other people saying that this was different. I need to go back and re-read Epi's attack and make sure I still see it that way but assuming I do, Epi would move to the "not voting" list.

Long Con - JJJ's read on LC was bad though what I remember most from 3J's reads is it seemed like he thought LC was bad because of LC's read of him. I think there had to be more to it than that though so I need to review JJJ's reads. From my own vantage point I feel like LC took calculated aim at llama today, finding reasons to find him bad that were tenuous at best. He first said he thought llama had hinted at being denim shirt but he could not be denim shirt because someone else had hinted more broadly at that role. He implied llama lied about the hint. I don't think llama was hinting because as I pointed out in a subsequent post llama expressed regret that dead people couldn't win in this game on a day where he was up for lynch until Mongoose came along and said indeed they could. I don't think he would have expressed that regret if he was hinting that he was denim shirt. Long Con then started going through llama's posts and brought out some points but I did not find them compelling. I don't know if he finished going through llama's posts but if he did he didn't find anything else to bring out. I feel like LC picked llama knowing that Quin and INH had both expressed distrust of llama and would likely vote for him which would offset votes that might come in for LC because people had started to fall away from suspecting Quin and INH leaving only Long Con out of the INH/Quin/LC triumvirate.

Quin - I keep going back to early in the game when Elo, who I believe was the blocker, expressed suspicion of Quin. I do believe she blocked him the night of the failed kill. Quin even seemed to believe that she blocked him. It's possible though that Quin did not target Boomslang and Boomslang was protected that night. I go round and round with this thinking, like a dog chasing it's tail. Quin also has some suspicions that I find odd (Boomslang for example) but that could just as easily point to the fact that he is civ and not afraid to express tinfoil suspicions instead of falling in line behind the main attention getters. I guess I am worried about Quin because I saw in Mad Max how he fooled people so skillfully as a baddie. I might revisit that game and see if I can make any solid distinctions between his activities there and here.

So thats where my thinking is as of now. I'm still willing to consider llama if anyone can bring forward arguments that are compelling. Otherwise I am giving him the benefit of the doubt today because of the silencing. My actions at this point are:

1. Review Epi's attack on DDL from early in the game
2. Review JJJ's case on Long Con
3. Review Quin's actions in Mad Max

I would appreciate any feedback people might have on my thoughts, especially things that I might have missed about anyone on either of my lists.

Long Con wrote:

Scotty wrote:

Long Con wrote:Llama, however... I'm sure he's bad. I'm very confident that lynching him is the right move.

Now where have I heard that before?

Long Con wrote:I have come to believe that JJJ is definitely bad. Voted JJJ.

Oh right.

This is different.

How is this different?

I agree that the strongest point in Made's favor is his concern about tying the vote up with a JJJ vote. I hadn't thought about - until you pointed it out - that it would have been the most consistent vote he could have made given that he voted for JJJ on day 2. I'm going to remove Made for consideration for a vote today.

I'm going to go get some exercise before we get stormy weather and when I get back I'll consider who I've narrowed the vote down to for today.

Made, I looked back at Felt 1 and you were the second highest poster. Here, you are the lowest poster that is still alive including me who has only been in the game for a day. This looks to me like you are laying low, leading me to believe you might be bad. Tell me why I am wrong.

Long Con what do you think about Made? What do the rest of you think about Made (except Epi, I already know what you think).

I am not likely to vote llama today because he appears to be silenced. I don't vote for people who are silenced unless I feel confident in their guilt and I am far from confidant about llama.

Epignosis wrote:

insertnamehere wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Let me see:

Boomslang- Would not vote
INH- Would vote
Juliets- Would vote
Long Con- Would vote
Made- Would not vote
nijuukyugou- Would not vote
Quin- Would vote
Scotty- Would vote
Sorsha- Would not vote
thellama73- Would vote

So, your suspects are me, Juliets, LC, Quin, Scotty, and Llama?

Making your townreads Boomslang, Made, Niju, and Sorsha.

Why Juliets and Scotty in particular?

I have no reason not to suspect them. That's all.

So you believe that MP was potentially bad and voted for himself?

After reviewing some of llama's posts I see that my thought process was wrongheaded about llama's comment that he was confident he wouldn't be lynched which LC interpreted as being a hint he was the Denim Shirt. It couldn't have meant that people would be unlikely to vote for him because he didn't respond to Quin's comment because llama's comment was talking about the past, not the present. So my interpretation was incorrect - I don't know what he meant by that comment.

I did however find another comment that I don't think llama would have made if he had been trying to hint he was the denim shirt:

thellama73 wrote: It's times like this I wish dead civilians could win with their team.

This comment was made on the day it looked like he might get lynched.

Also, when Mongoose came to the thread and said you would win with your team even if dead llama posted an emoticon that was joyful.

I haven't finished going through llama's posts but wanted to stop and address this issue while it was on my mind.

I haven't really considered llama because as I pointed out earlier, he made a post regarding the rationale for suspecting players that I thought was right on target. Since the Elo lynch though I've had to start reconsidering those reads and now I'm questioning just about everyone except Boomslang, blooper, Sorsha and Scotty.

LC, I may be misunderstanding what you are saying below but I don't see how it is evidence of llama's baddieness. Maybe I will understand it better when I go through his posts but I would appreciate it if you could elaborate on this more. Isn't he just adding to his case on Quin?

Long Con wrote:

thellama73 wrote:I certainly think Epignosis looks good after this result, and while it's conceivable that it's an elaborate ploy, it's very unlikely, so I will put him aside for a while. A few of the other DDL voters look pretty good too, and I'm even willing to give Sorsha a second chance. It would have ben very easy for her to justify a vote for me if she were bad.

I think Long Con and INH likely had pure motivations for their votes, which leaves Quin and Wilgy as the most suspicious. I also want to take a look at those who avoided both wagons, as that's usually the smart play for baddies early in the game.

Accuses Quin and Wilgy based on their Day 1 votes, after he has already been building a case on Quin.

I personally did not pick up on that comment as Llama hinting at being the denim shirt. I thought he meant that people would be unlikely to vote for him just because he didn't respond to Quin's comment about breaking the tie. I also don't see who else might be hinting at being the denim shirt so I guess I need to do some additional re-reading.

One caveat is I'm generally not very good at picking up on hints.

Epignosis wrote:My residual suspicion of Quin has waned some.

Epi, is there a specific reason for this?

RIP JJJ. I was surprised to see you go but I guess I shouldn't have been considering the WIFOM value of your death. Sorry to see you go.

I think I will also go to the waterpark.

Epignosis wrote:By the way, in case in wasn't obvious, I lied about winning a prize.

Epi, it wasn't obvious to me and I have to ask you, why?

I don't know what to talk about with the llama rule in effect (which I totally see the need for). I'm glad to see though that the night is not 48 hours like I thought.

Also AP when I said you were silly I meant that in the best way possible. I'm sorry you had to leave the game.

dang, but glad she wasn't civ - silly AP

Epignosis wrote:I'm not saying "Don't vote Eloh." All I'm saying is, "Don't let the fact that she hasn't been around when she asked for time factor into your vote." She hasn't been around. That is all.

Ok, thanks for the info Epi. I'll take that out of the equation. There is still enough there though that I am comfortable voting for her so I'm going to go ahead and vote.

Epignosis wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Quin wrote:What's the gist of the case against Eloh 2.0?

Her vote against Wilgy was opportunistically timed, the timing and circumstances of her replacing back in are suspicious (although I am less sympathetic to this part of the case, as expounded by Epignosis) and she asked for a day to explain herself and then promptly disappeared. Her predecessor, AP, was basically an absentee.

Bad voting record. Bad participation. That combined with the process of elimination I outlined above makes me thing she is surely bad.

Again, I would leave participation on Thursdays out of the equation.

But then why did she ask for a day to prove herself if she wasn't going to be here?

thellama73 wrote:

juliets wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:All:

Tell me why we shouldn't lynch Elohcin.

She's not here to defend herself, which I know is an "old-school" reason not to Lynch someone but you asked.

But it's not like she hasn't had lots of opportunity to be here to defend herself. We told her she was a suspect yesterday and she asked for more time, which we gave her.

Yes thats true and is the reason why I'm willing to vote for her even though she hasn't been here. I'm just trying to think of every reason not to possible.

I don't agree with Quin's reason though, it doesn't feel like a day 1 lynch to me.

lots o'linki

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:All:

Tell me why we shouldn't lynch Elohcin.

She's not here to defend herself, which I know is an "old-school" reason not to Lynch someone but you asked.

I didn't think I was going to be able to vote tonight given the lack of time I had to catch up but I didn't realize the end time was later tonight than it has been. The Elo vote makes real sense to me and I am leaning voting there.

thellama73 wrote:
Observations:

JJJ voted off any major wagons on both days when it mattered. That looks bad. But He was also the counterwagon to Wilgy, which makes me feel slightly better about him.

INH, Long Con and Quin have voted on the wrong side of both baddie catching lynches, and have voted the same way as each other in all three lynches. Tsk tsk. Probably not more than one of them is bad though, because I can't see baddies voting together every time. Too obvious.

The two confirmed baddies were both low posters and missed votes. Who's carrying the weight of the baddie team?

MP/Spacedaisy have done nothing all game. If they are a third baddie, that fourth one has to be going berserk.

Elohcin 2.0/AP was absent the first two lynches and threw a meaningless late vote on Wilgy today. Could easily be bad, but again, would be frustrating for that team.

Made could have easily voted Jimmy, whom he suspected before, and forced a tie. The fact that he did not makes me trust him.

Blooper, Boomslang, Scotty, Metalmarsh, and Sorsha now have voting records that I consider unimpeachable. Epi looks pretty good too, but he is tricksy.

I would also note that we haven't lynched the Mafia member responsible for the kills yet, and the kills have been sent in every night. This makes Spacedaisy and Elohcin look slightly better.

Top contenders for a Day 4 lynch based solely on voting record: Elohcin 2.0, insertnamehere, JJJ, Long Con, Quin, Spacedaisy. I think the two remaining baddies are hiding in this bunch.

I remember when I read through this post of llama's (I cut out the first part of it which was who voted for whom) I thought it was right on. Revisiting it now I find that I still agree with it except I think it is possible that two of INH/Quin/LC did vote for the same person. I also know Daisy's role now since I am in it and it's a civ role. As someone pointed out earlier in the game MP would have never voted for himself had he been bad.

Epi, Elo asked in one of her posts that everyone give her a day to prove herself yet I don't think she has posted anything today. You indicated it's because it's Thursday - does that mean this day was just to busy for her to post at all? I just find it odd that she asked for a day and then didn't do anything with it.

Wow I got a lot of linki - I will read it after I post.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

juliets wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I can believe that he won a lynch immunity given that LC is claiming the same. Either neither is lying or both are.

However, the important detail is whether it has been activated for today.

I believe I said it before. Welcome to the deathless world of Mongoose.

I'm going backwards through the thread and I have to stop here and ask what this is about. Do you really think Mongoose would have given away three Lynch immunities? That just seems, well, hardly believable. Did this happen in her other game and thats why you made this comment llama? Or did something similar happen?

It appears plausible that she did. Three of us are claiming it now and we can't all be bad. I want to be clear on one thing though in case it isn't clear already: the immunity is given to someone the night before (can be given to oneself). It isn't automatically a self-immunity.

Yes, I didn't stop to think of it that way - you can't all be bad so that does argue for it being true. And I'm glad you clarified because I was indeed thinking of it as a self-immunity.