The Syndicate

MovingPictures07 wrote:
juliets wrote:Well, speedchuck either made a risky guess or knew by checking me that I am not Bellic. I tend to believe him. That would have really been a risky guess.

Yeah speed chuck, I just protected Dys just in case even though I was pretty sure we had gotten the last mafia.
I'm a bit lost on this Bellic stuff. Can one of you ELI5?

speedchuck why don't you explain it. You do a better job than I could.

Well, speedchuck either made a risky guess or knew by checking me that I am not Bellic. I tend to believe him. That would have really been a risky guess.

Yeah speed chuck, I just protected Dys just in case even though I was pretty sure we had gotten the last mafia.

Oh. Jesus I was all excited there for a minute.

Oh gosh I forgot to say rip to JJJ and Dys. Sorry guys! We miss you both!

Oh shit you guys is this what happened????? I sent in Dizzy as a target to protect last night, just in case. Does that mean my target was switched with Strawhenge so Strawhenge killed Dizzy?? Or am I misunderstanding the bus driver power?

MovingPictures07 wrote:I think I solved the game.

Yay! Tell us!

speedchuck wrote:Oh, and the other things. Juliets, you are not Bellic. Unless I was busdriven.

I will be here for the last hour or so anyway, regardless of the time changes. Only a 24 hour increase will really give me more time, though, as I will be gone for most of the extra 12 hours.
Like I said, whatever end time works for Juliets, Straw, and MP is good with me.

You are correct, I am not Bellic.

Ok tomorrow night is fine with me.

speedchuck wrote:
juliets wrote: speedchuck, since you think it's strawhenge as opposed to MP, are you thinking Golden just lied about his targeting JJJ and getting Fred? Thats the only way I see MP's targets making sense. Also, did you find your third name last night (if you want to say)?

And for all, should we push this lynch off until tomorrow morning at 11:00 am? speedchuck are you in a time zone where that wouldn't work?
If MP is telling the truth, Golden lied about his target. If MP is lying, Golden lied about being driven. Let's look at these cases:

MP is telling the truth case: Golden did not lie about where he went, but did lie about his target. I do not know why he told us anything at all, but hiding his target is reasonable. Why? His target was Fredwood. Mafia watchers often target teammates so that they can know whether townies are bluffing against them and whether they should distance or bus. He didn't want us to know that he targeted Fredwood.

If MP is lying, and is actually the marker: Golden lied about being busdriven at all. This makes no sense, and there's no reason for MP to corroborate it. Furthermore, Golden saw MP/Eloh target Freddie. I assume that this is true, because if it wasn't, both Golden and MP are asking for a lynch. If MP/Eloh targeted Freddie, and Jack didn't, then Fred would have been marked. He didn't die in the first explosion.

Long-winded stuff, but even with Golden's pointless lie, MP was telling the truth. Unless we've gotten a ton more misinformation than we thought, it isn't really possible for MP to be lying. Fred would have died earlier, or Golden would have been lying about even seeing Eloh, which would get Golden insta-lynched. Occam's razor says that MP is truthful. MP lying is tinfoil.

Got it. MP is off my list.

Another thought - the GOC phase is being extended by 24 hours because of the site outage. Do we want to ask sprityo to do the same for us? G-Man is giving them the choice in his game of 24 hours or going ahead with it today.

Ok, this is not good. I don't know who I believe the marker is.

speedchuck, since you think it's strawhenge as opposed to MP, are you thinking Golden just lied about his targeting JJJ and getting Fred? Thats the only way I see MP's targets making sense. Also, did you find your third name last night (if you want to say)?

strawhenge, same question since you believe speedchuck is the marker over MP. Also Strawhenge I'll look back but I thought speedchuck POE's Fred as the most likely bad not you.

And for all, should we push this lynch off until tomorrow morning at 11:00 am? speedchuck are you in a time zone where that wouldn't work?

Well ok, looks like no one is here so I'm going to bed.

Tomorrow I will be in the thread early in the morning but then have appointments all day until about 4:00-4:30. I'll be in the thread when I'm home from the appointments.

I am the Backup Doctor, civ. Never heard of such a thing. I had to clarify after Quin claimed that I was an every night doctor and when I found out I was, I figured there was another doctor out there that I was backing up. That's why I didn't believe his claim that he was a civ odd night doctor. The hosts would not clarify if I was a back-up for a full doctor or a partial doctor which is what caused my doubt about Quin being bad.

As it turned out there isn't a civ doctor and I activated when Quin died which makes absolutely no sense to me but maybe does to you guys. So I was wrong about my reason for suspecting Quin, but I was right that he was bad. It would make more sense to me if I had activated when the bodyguard died since the bodyguard was civ but that's not what happened.

I protected JJJ the first night I was active (night before last).

I'm about to go to bed but will be here for a few minutes.

Also, I think I can role claim now. Am I right that protective roles can claim since that probably (surely) was the last mafia? Or is there a reason I should keep it to myself?

Yay! I can't believe Fred was mafia after all that. He did a good job of hiding it. I hope he really does play here again.

JJJ I have to go to bed. I hope MP sees that post of speedchucks about using his night power. Looks like he and Straw might not make it here tonight. I'll catch up with whatever happens in the morning.

I'm not going to be here for awhile. MP if you come in see this important post for you from speedchuck here. It's the second section that starts with MP.

Also everyone note the vote is at 3 for Fredwood: Dyslexicon, juliets, speedchuck. Next vote is the hammer vote.

Note: We are currently at 3 votes for Fredwood:- Dyslexicon, juliets, speedchuck.

The next vote taking it to 4 will be a hammer vote. Please be careful and don't hammer unless you're sure.

Is there anything we should be talking about? It seems like we are all talked out.

ugh my typos - please ignore

Also, the reason I asked about the UNVOTE is my computer keeps wanting to change it to "INVITE" and I have to send time trying to make it UNVOTE. If time is of the essence like it was the other night it becomes a problem. Though tonight it looks like there probably won't be any last minute changes.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Everyone's leaving! Fredwood is the patsy! They're setting him up to die while they are away!

I will be here as late as possible. I might make it al the way to 11:00.

Vote Fred

Ok, I'm pretty sure from scanning his posts that Dys voted Fred. I don't see an unvote.

Also, this is a mechanics question, if I change my mind do I have to say UNVOTE before I re-vote or can I just do another vote?

I am tempted to go ahead and vote now in case I can't make it to 11:00. Is there only one vote on Fred?

MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm confused about speedchuck's character thing. I'll have to check with sprityo and clarify before I say anything further. I'm not sure it matters though.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not sure why we think this game can be even remotely closed to solved via information outside the thread. I'm not at all accustomed to solving the game like this, and frankly I'm not a fan. I'd rather try to determine who to lynch based on in-thread information, and I requested interaction analyses information last night multiple times only for no one to answer my question.

I'm confused about what information is outside the thread.

Also JJJ I agree that if I voted someone now it would be Fred.

speedchuck wrote:
juliets wrote:speedchuck -
Is making my head hurt with his thought question.
Sorry. I'll reveal my answers and the reason for them and the questions once I get an answer from Straw. He's most important, you don't have to answer.

Oh cool. I'll think about them though.

Ok, so I come out in the same place as JJJ after all that, with Fred and MP at the top of my list. The MP suspicion is just so hard but I cant make the target claim make sense in my head. I just worry that he was rushed and didn't think through the targets he was claiming. My backup to both suspicions is speedchuck and my tinfoil is Strawhenge because he just hasn't given us a lot of content to rate. I'm scared he could have just laid back because he is bad.

speedchuck -

speedchuck is civilian because he has been actively attempting to solve the game and baddie hunt throughout, voted Marmot when not voting him probably wouldn't have resulted in suspicion, voted Soneji which was a better lynch than LC, brought up problems with Golden's claim. (The first item is a big one as he has been thorough and consistent)

speedchuck is not civilian because the analysis shows he is compatible with marking targets, no one has stood up for him as the third role so it could be his own name, he is knowledgeable enough to make up a plausible role that can't be proved, hammered LC which shut down discussion early, this is opinion but he seems to be the most "mafia smart" of all players except JJJ so I could see him pulling it off. Is making my head hurt with his thought question.

linki Jack: yayay! I didn't know we were talking about a crossover game; glad Fred said he would play.

Strawhenge -

Strawhenge is civilian because no motive seen for marking Quin and Golden per JJJ's analysis, role claimed when JJJ asked him to, iso'd Long Con early with suspicion and continues with his suspicion later in the game, expressed Quin suspicion, Golden in vaguely suspicion category, expresses suspicion of soneji, he got us the siren gif and he's funny.

Strawhenge is not civilian because he has laid low for the whole game, can't prove his role, conveniently expresses suspicion of most of the baddies.

Fredwood, again I know I left some things out. Doing the best I can with these -

Fredwood is civilian because his posts sound genuine, he has tried to point out how the bus driving thing doesn't make sense since way back in the thread, he had suspicion of Soneji for awhile.

Fredwood is not civilian because he didn't vote in the Marmot or Soneji lynches when votes were particularly important, not a lot of scum hunting, he expressed consistent suspicion of Jack, suspected Scotty, makes comment that is strange to be in a game where no one is scared of an sk, argument that marker should have waited a day to explode doesn't hold water, motive for Fredwood to have marked Quin and Golden per JJJ's analysis.

MP -

MP is civilian because he would have gotten the role straight before he came to the thread and claimed, voted to Lynch Soneji at last second, he's not getting as upset as he normally does when suspected (though he admits he's not really invested in the game).

MP is not civilian because he was pressed for time so didn't spend enough time in the baddie chat to understand what targets he needed to claim to make Golden's claim believable and what he did claim doesn't make sense, he claimed quickly to get Golden out of hot water, the targets he says he picked for other nights do not make sense.

linki - lol Strawhenge should not be lynched because he is funny. How did you do all those so quickly Straw, I'm like agonizing over here.

Ok, maybe I will do these two at a time. Here's JJJ and Dys. I'm sure I missed some things, this is from the top of my head.

JJJ is civilian because we have a role reveal that shows he's a civilian and he is obviously trying to solve the game
JJJ is not civilian because his role reveal was fake or he was recruited to the baddie team/marker team after his role reveal.

Dyslexicon is civilian because he identified Marmot early and it came off genuine, he lynched Soneji, he claimed protective even though there were other protective roles claimed, he brought attention to himself day 1 with his fake claim, vest giver balances with Soneji, vest to nutella is believable, seems unconcerned with how posts look, i.e., seems free and easy.
Dyslexicon is not civilian because his claim makes too many protective roles, he gave a vest to Golden, almost too much civilian stuff to be believable.

linki

I have time to try it but it will take a few minutes.

Dyslexicon, safe travels!

Dyslexicon wrote: I would very much be interested in Juliets role. She's the only one that hasn't given much information about it?

It's not in the best interest of the town for me to claim unless I'm about to get lynched but I can tell you that like the other roles that have been claimed, it has limitations. It's also a role I have never heard of in the mafia I have played. It is a protective role but has not been mentioned as a possible role in this game. I hope that is enough information. I will think about if there's anything else I can safely say.

It looks like Dyslexicon was not around for the discussion where I first said I didn't trust Quin's claim (it was late at night eastern time). The next morning he claimed with this statement:

Dyslexicon wrote:Doctor, bodyguard, and I have a protective ability as well. Though not quite as strong, I'd say.

I think I know why Dys claimed but it would be better if he explained why he claimed at this point in time.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Theory: Dyslexicon played into the dialogue about numerous protective roles by claiming one himself -- it'd allow him to justify most targets he'd make. Those targets of his though are actually marks, and he blew up Golden and Quin.

Looking at it the other way around, did it make sense from a civ standpoint for Dyslexicon to claim protective when he did? I have to look back and refresh my memory of what was happening when he claimed.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
juliets wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The role claims

MovingPictures07 - Bus driver -- I don't think his information reconciles with Golden's, but Golden was also scum. So.
One thing about this issue. Golden has said many times - and I think he said it in this game - that he does not lie when bad unless absolutely necessary, I think because it's too easy to get caught in a lie. This makes me think he is telling the truth about his claim which leaves me unsure about MP. It doesn't seem like it would have been a necessity to lie.
If MP is also mafia though then there shouldn't be a discrepancy. It's so easy to just corroborate Golden's claim correctly. I don't understand.

Yeah you're right. It's hard to believe two mafia smart players like MP and Golden didn't understand how the roles worked. I don't know how to explain it but it bothers me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The role claims

MovingPictures07 - Bus driver -- I don't think his information reconciles with Golden's, but Golden was also scum. So.

One thing about this issue. Golden has said many times - and I think he said it in this game - that he does not lie when bad unless absolutely necessary, I think because it's too easy to get caught in a lie. This makes me think he is telling the truth about his claim which leaves me unsure about MP. It doesn't seem like it would have been a necessity to lie.

Fredwood wrote: Oops. We were talking about the potential for the role to be randomly activated, not about if I'd heard of it before.

About the voting, hindsight is 20/20, I remember the EOD being a lot more hectic and flipfloppy then your summary suggests. I fully admit to fucking up and is probably the best case to lynch me. I also don't think it will have a lot to do with why I'm lynched either (Most likely lynched either way), if I ever play again I'll know not to bother waiting to vote.

Oh gosh Fred I hope regardless of whether you are lynched today or not you will play again. You're playing a good game. I entered the game thinking you sounded civ and I'm entirely unsure at this point what I want to do in terms of a vote.

Does speedchuck's role claim make sense? Does it sound like a reasonable role for this game? It's not a role I am familiar with.

Fred did you mean to add something to my post or am I just not seeing it?

Ok, I read through the vote for the Soneji lynch and it seems to me there were prime opportunities for Fred to vote for Soneji. This was the count at 10:34 pm:

sprityo wrote:It's that time AAAAAAAAAAAAAA

VOTALS:

Soneji (4): speedchuck, Sloonei, Scotty, juliets
Quin (5): Golden, Strawhenge, MP, Long Con, JJJ
Long Con (3): Quin, Soneji, Dyslexicon,

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to Lynch, 3 to Soft Lynch

Day ends in 25 minutes

After this JJJ voted Soneji at 10:37 pm putting the vote at 5. The hammer was 7 so there was still an opportunity to vote after JJJ voted.

The 6th vote didn't come until 10:42 pm when MP voted for Soneji.

Then MP unvoted Soneji at 10:48 bringing the vote back down to 5 presenting another opportunity to vote.

AT 10:52 the totals were presented so there should have been no confusion about what the vote was:

sprityo wrote:It's Dare

VOTALS:

Soneji (5): speedchuck, Sloonei, Scotty, juliets, JJJ,
Quin (4): Golden, Strawhenge, Long Con, MP
Long Con (3): Quin, Soneji, Dyslexicon,

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to Lynch, 3 to Soft Lynch

Day ends in 15 minutes

MP had voted for Quin and then Quin voted for Quin and at 10:56 the totals were presented again still showing Soneji at 5 and Quin now at 4. Another good opportunity to vote for Soneji.

At 10:58 Soneji votes to Lynch Quin, tying it.

At 10:59 MP and Dyslexicon vote to Lynch Soneji.

Fred posted at 10:43, 10:47, 10:50, and 10:51 but none of those were votes for Soneji.

I'm just having a hard time seeing this as someone who knew Soneji was bad and didn't vote, especially between 10:52 and 10:59. I understand we were experiencing major linki but that was a 7 minute span.

I will think about this some more and I'm interested to see where JJJ's head is this morning.

Fred, can you explain this seeming discrepancy? When Jack flipped as a marker and the subject of demo man came up you said:

Fredwood wrote:
Damn. Oh, God...though I have to write down this role for my future games if I run any. As a mod I love the idea for a neutral killer, as a player it's fucking terrifying lol.

and this:

Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:
Sloonei wrote:My first thought when I see something about marking is a demolition man.
Could you explain what that is?
<snipped gif>

No idea what a marker is or what a Demolition Man is.

Yet last night in the discussion with JJJ you said this (see underlined comment by JJJ and underlined corresponding comment by you):

Spoiler: show

Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:I would have sat on it. Neither of them were likely dying that phase, Long Con was pretty much dead.

A Mafia NK and another mark makes the numbers 8 people with kill control over 3 of them. I let everyone bicker between Golden and Quin activate bomb late in the phase, leave 5 people and mark/kill another person. Leaving myself in a 1v3 situation.

To me it's a much more manageable situation if I wait one day, because my activation are in no danger of dying before then.
Problems immediately arising here:

1. Your argument is built around your pursuit of a superior numbers scenario, like the 1 vs. 3 situation. This still relies entirely upon the marker knowing that Golden and Quin are scum. If even one of them is not, then instead of 3 town vs. 1 rogue it's 2 town vs. 1 scum vs. 1 rogue. If neither of them are, then it's 1 town vs. 2 scum vs. 1 rogue. The best case in those is a kingmaker scenario where the townies vote on the winner against their will. Consider the current scenario again under the same circumstances:

If the mafia are eliminated, then right now it is presumably 6 town vs. 1 rogue. The marker couldn't know the mafia would be eliminated. If one of Quin and Golden is scum, it's 5 town vs. 1 scum vs. 1 rogue. If neither of them are scum, it's 4 town vs. 2 scum vs. 1 rogue. These aren't terrible situations for an LMS player either.

2. Quin and Golden were almost certainly not the only players marked. The marker could have expected someone else to die too, perhaps a town read, but that player had been demarked by Jack or otherwise redirected by one of the bus drivers.

3. This again hinges on the notion that the marker has a choice regarding when the detonation occurs. I have personally written a demo man role where there was no element of choice -- Strawhenge mentioned it earlier today.

3. So did I. The reason I have a hard time digesting the time of detonation is when it occurred. Why does spirit make it more difficult for himself to put a random time on it. Second, why do both activation go off at the same time? If it's random, wouldn't they have gone off separately based on when they were marked not together?

As for the rest.

1. No, it does not. My point is that there had to be a pretty good idea in their head that they were both scum. If I think there's a 50 percent chance that Quin, Golden or LongCon are all scum, I'm happy to let day 5 play out without interference. It's too big of a risk to eliminate the NK, imo.

In the scenario you posited, yes, they're not bad, but they're also not better then a scenario if you wait a day. If they wait a day and one of them is town and one is scum, they're in an even better situation, because then you're in a 2 v 1 v 1 scenario the next day or at worst a 3 v 1 v 1 because it's definitely MYLO at that point.

2. Jack posted all of his targets in thread, so there's no reason for one to expect other marks to go off if Jack visited people he marked earlier, or they're already dead. It would have been very easy for him to know who was marked based off of the information shared in thread.

So in one place you're saying you never heard of a demo man and in another place you are saying you have put it in a game before. Is there something here I am misunderstanding?

I'm not understanding the fear of info-dumping. There's nothing in the rules about info-dumping and I thought it was always allowed in closed set ups. I do understand the issue of not wanting to say the role power even if it's one shot due to the mafia potentially not believing the claim.

Is the MP power issue solved to everyone's satisfaction?

I'm off to read Fred's posts to see what I think about the Soneji knowledge.

I also have to go to bed - I'm an early riser. I would have been much better off with a 9:00 am EOD, lol. I'll catch up in the morning. 'Night all.

and linki again -

The evidence that they still exist is we had a kill last night and no one seems to have heard of an sk who inherits a mafia kill.

Evidence that they don't exist is the flavor that seems to indicate in one place that Scotty died from his wounds. More importantly, 6 mafia and an sk would be a lot of baddies for a 21 person game - a higher ratio than I normally see in games.

I can't say right now which is more probable. I need to sleep on it.

linki -

MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Also, I really find a 6th mafia member dubious as well. Is what Jay was saying earlier about Scotty's role self-imploding make any sense whatsoever?
I completely forgot about that. I was going to check it.
The only reason I thought about it at all was the flavor text -- it sounded like Scotty was living on borrowed time. I typically don't read into flavor though; who knows.
Did Scotty say anything that would have indicated he suspected that his role would die eventually or something?

I didn't see anything personally but I haven't reviewed his posts since he died.

MovingPictures07 wrote:This is in response to juliets below and also in response to concerns expressed by Jay and Dizzy

juliets wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:Oh, I thought Juliets brought it up to clear MP, but seems I misunderstood?
Right, I wasn't trying to clear him I was saying that was suspicious behavior. I think you're right, if he's bad he did get with his teammates ahead of time and thats why he was comfortable claiming so quickly. He would have known the issue about Golden's targets needed to be cleared up.
How is it suspicious? I clearly laid out my train of thought in spam-like posts in those 11 minutes, agonizing over whether to claim after quickly getting acclimated to the game, and then deciding to just throw caution to the wind and claim because I felt it would give helpful town-friendly information to the thread (i.e., assist with trying to figure out wtf was going on with Golden's n1 stuff).

I hesitated this time because I felt I had a serious reason not to throw out my targets in the presence of a lone mafia member and given the discussion of Jay still being alive.

It just seemed too quick MP. I could see you telling us who you targeted because we were asking for that information but I was surprised you claimed. With that said remember that I'm not used to claiming so I expect people to think through it carefully. What you seem to be saying here is you did think it through you just did it quickly. I will re-read that sequence with that in mind. I also will need to re-read the discussion about who you have targeted tomorrow morning when I'm fresh to make sure I understand it but I see JJJ changed his vote so I'm assuming it made sense.

linki many times

I'm here and see my name but I'm not caught up. I'll respond as soon as I can.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm still open to hearing what MP has to say when he is able to make an appearance.

Yeah me too. I don't want to get too excited before having heard his side of the story.

Dyslexicon wrote:Oh, I thought Juliets brought it up to clear MP, but seems I misunderstood?

Right, I wasn't trying to clear him I was saying that was suspicious behavior. I think you're right, if he's bad he did get with his teammates ahead of time and thats why he was comfortable claiming so quickly. He would have known the issue about Golden's targets needed to be cleared up.

Dyslexicon wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Straw's role claim is a creative one if it's fake. It has the adequate profile to be fake given that it cannot be resolved without him dying anyway, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. The targets interest me more than the claim itself, as they lend substance upon which Straw can be judged. The only target that appears strange is the first one, when he targeted me, and I might actually like that. Straw has been subject to my scum wins as much as anyone and he has more reason to be paranoid of my shenanigans than most people.

I've a personal bias in the matter though and would appreciate others' takes.
First reaction is to believe the claim. Also, he didn't seem to want to claim at first, which I think is relevant. In contrast MP seemed to want to claim, which I didn't like as much. That was more like how Golden claimed.

MP entered the thread at 8:20 pm and claimed at 8:31 pm. That's 11 minutes to claim in a game he ostensibly knew very little about. That's just too quick even if he's experienced in role claiming games (he would have had to get that experience on other sites than the ones I've been on with him).

linki again

I think it rings of truth. He could have easily said Eloh for example and we would have never known the difference. Or he could have said Dyslexicon - didn't he vote for him at some point on day 1? I don't think we would have had much question about that. But he said you instead Jay, which causes some question. I think he's telling the truth.

linki will read after posting

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