The Syndicate

timmer wrote:

indiglo wrote:

So you would be more comfortable with a Snow Dog lynch today (for clarification purposes) over an MP lynch today (for clarification purposes)? Even though Snow Dog is insanified and taking into consideration everything MP is saying?

Well first, to be clear, the safest chance at getting a baddie lynched today is Dom, period.

But for the sake of argument, here is what I am seeing. LT and MP7 are both outstanding longtime players. They bot hknow how to handle info-type roles, and they both know the perils and traps that can befall them, i.e. that targets can get switched around, and stuff like that.

LT is saying unequivocally that Snow Dog is bad.
MP7 is saying unequivocally that Snow Dog is good.

I trust them both to know how to handle their roles and to not say such statements if their actions or whatever may have been tampered with. Thus, one of them is lying. If Snow Dog is good, then LT is lying. if snow Dog is bad, then MP7 is lying.

If Snow Dog is lynched, either way we catch a lying baddie. If LT is lying, she's caught the moment Snow Dog is lynched. if MP7 is lying, then he is caught the moment his teammate Snow Dog is lynched.

The main reason I'm interested in all of this is that i think it cracks open the Horde.

Dom feels more Snake Mountain to me.

Cracking open the Horde, and finally getting some information on them is huge. Both LT and MP7 have posted a lot, and thus figuring out which is Horde, and I strongly believe one must be at this point, is very important. their teammates will have supported them throughout the game, etc.

But the key to it all is Snow Dog. And I've never been one to give someone a pass due to insanification. My feelings toward Snow Dog have nothing to do with what he has or will say, anyway, it's more the circumstance.

MovingPictures07 wrote:RIP Orson and llama. That is unfortunate.

I agree that it seems obvious Dom is bad, but I think we need to discuss others as well. Not sure which way we should vote just yet.

There is still the matter of: (1) the fact that BF/indiglo/juliets or some combination of them obviously seemed to have some sort of info about He-Man, but are they civvie or baddie is the real question; (2) is timmer indeed Zodac or is he Modulok and how has he escaped lynch for so long, if so; and (3) all of the low-posters and no shows (except for probably Aces). I feel like those are the main questions in my mind currently, Dom not withstanding. I would love to catch a baddie today regardless, but I think what I really want to catch is a Horde member because they are definitely scaring me much more at the moment.

I might go back and look at BWT's posts some more to see if I can come up with anything. I do remember he was one of the ones that went hard after timmer, but then switched his thoughts to timmer being indy when the tide of the thread changed, as many of us did. I'm really wondering if that's where we are getting hoodwinked. That being said, I'd still really like to believe timmer is Zodac or at least one of the indies.

Thoughts, anyone, on any of these 3 topics? I feel like people fell into the Dom lynch yesterday and many of the things I (and others) brought up particularly in my posts on low posters weren't discussed to their full potential, so I'd rather discuss those today so we can try and figure out what's going on, instead of falling in line to another slew of posts that just say "votes Dom".

He-Man wrote:LT I'm feeling really good about you, I very much doubt your hexed and trust your case on BWT.

I will vote vote BWT I really don't like Timmers vote for BF and I would like spaghetti everywhere looked at more tomorrow.

Also, Dom and Dfaraday are quiet I know they're not normally top posters but I would like to hear more from them. And I have said it a lot lately probably because I'm concerned she is not fighting the good fight but where is FH. She is pinging me a lot.

And russ I wanna believe he is civ but something is holding me back.

Votes BWT

MovingPictures07 wrote:It seems pretty evident to me what both LT and BWT's alliances are. BWT's responses trying to paint LT as bad or her vote as Skeletorified, as well as his flip floppyness that strikes me as insincere, and his buddying up to me (like Daisy did) only confirm to me that there is no way BWT is civvie this game. I would be very surprised if he flipped civvie at this point, especially as he has been off the mark for much of the game. I think he would be an excellent lynch candidate today.

I am also wondering what is going with DH. I've been thinking about why he would survive the Slime Pit and be apparently insanified and so upset. Has anyone considered that he may have been compromised? I know being insanified is frustrating, but for some reason I think there may be more to it.

Linki with LT: These are more great examples, thanks for providing these. There is a distinct difference between sinister and sincere 'flip flopping', if you will, and these only confirm further that BWT stinks of baddie. I was hoping I could re-read his posts and a few others' (as well as some or all of the thread) myself but naturally have not yet had time to. This weekend will be full of studying and continuing to play catch up (partially because work is busier all of a sudden), but I hopefully will be able to find and highlight some fishiness from any other players as well.

Russtifinko wrote: The one thing I do think is weird is your continuing belief in LT, given that no one has been able to give a better reason for their support of him besides "he seems like a civvie", either before or after the Night 1 vote. If someone could clear up for me what is so innocent about him I would be very grateful.

blindfaeth wrote: But in all seriousness, I think Timmer or FH are good places to look today.

timmer wrote:Okay, so weird stuff from the night.

Snow Dog was the first person in the nigt to suggest that everyone should vote for themselves, ANd the first person to get a vote from someone else.

Snow Dog wrote:What if everyone votes for themself on this one?

thellama73 wrote:So AnnaDanielle, who didn't vote on the lynching, now mysteriously votes for Snow Dog as shield bearer without posting... O.o

Next interesting bit:

Snow Dog wrote:Annadanielle I know from another forum, but not well. It is hardly possible she likes me and wishes for me to have the shield for that reason.
So she is either being coerced somehow into that vote or she is making it look like she wants to protect me because we are on the same team. This makes her suspect. Also He- Mans lkevelling the vote for lynching is suspect. Was he trying to save a fellow baddie?

This feels like maybe they thought the "vote for me" thing up in btsc, realized it seemed odd, and now here is the backpedal.

Snow Dog wrote:

Vompatti wrote:I'm not voting for myself, so I'm voting for LittleTiger, just because.

Well I was going to vote Anna to pay her back but this might change things. May now have to vote myself to equal LT.

But lo, LT gets a second vote and Snow Dog really wants that prize, eh?

Snow Dog wrote:

Vompatti wrote:

Snow Dog wrote:

Vompatti wrote:I'm not voting for myself, so I'm voting for LittleTiger, just because.

Well I was going to vote Anna to pay her back but this might change things. May now have to vote myself to equal LT.

You would have voted for her before finding out why she voted for you?

Yes. Definitely. To keep everyone on one vote.

But then we're back to wanting everyone evened out. So Snow Dog either didn't want votes, or wants to win the shield?

And then Lt gets a slew of votes and Snow Dog caps the night off with this:

Snow Dog wrote:Might as well cast my vote. Voted LT Looking back at her posts she seems probably a civvie to me and I am just a sheep anyway following the flock.

A blend-in vote (which he even states).

I don't know your game, Snow Dog, but your posts through the night have pinged me.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Oh, and I do think a good hard look should be made at those who were trying to cast doubt on the rush of votes for LT being a baddie move. I noticed Boomslang and BWT were two who said that. Occam's razor suggests she is a civvie, it should be said. Of course, it could be a long con, and I'm open to that. But I'm not sure it is.

Anyway,

Russtifinko wrote:I trust MP at this point. I know this game is about deception, but I have trouble believing he would lie outright about his civvie-ness (and fairly forcefully, if I recall). If he is lying, he's a lot more devious than I realized and thus would probably kill me no matter what I did, so I'm gonna believe him.

blindfaeth wrote: Furthermore, I am increasingly nervous about all of the quiet players. There are even people who have voted without saying a word, which I don't think I've ever encountered before.

I hate to echo BF after voting for him, and am not prepared to say he's a civvie yet, but I am I am suspicious of Anna's votes without posts as well (btw, reptar did this too right?). I think she is worth keeping in mind for the voting tomorrow unless we get a satisfactory explanation. I agree with Snow Dog's sentiment that, even being new to Mafia, some of us have picked up the etiquette by playing. By tomorrow we'll be 5 days into the game, and at that point I think it's fair to give people who haven't posted a closer look.

However, tonight's vote seems to be more about who we should be trusting. A vote for myself seems like a throwaway at this point, and throwaway votes seem suspicious to me as a way to avoid scrutiny. I'm not sure who I do trust besides MP yet, so my vote goes to him.

By the way, the fact that no player got more than 6 lynch votes was interesting. Since we have 2 teams of 6 baddies each, that means it's pretty unlikely either baddie team voted unanimously for the same person (although not entirely impossible). If we assume one of the 2 leading vote-getters was bad and one was good, then the baddie team that person belonged to would have to be fairly uncoordinated to almost let a member get lynched when they could have avoided it, right? There were good reasons to vote for either, and I doubt voting to tip the scales one way or another would have looked too suspicious. It seems too clumsy to me, which leaves 3 possibilities:

1) BoomSlang and BF are both civvies, in which case one or both baddie teams took advantage of our misplaced suspicions to divide their votes, avoid scrutiny, and let a civvie get lynched all in one go. In this case, the no-votes could very well be baddies who are lying very low at the beginning. They were foiled somehow, which still seems to clumsy to me, although it's plausible that He-Man screwed them over.

2) Both of them are baddies on the same team, which means the baddies were in a tough spot to start with. In this scenario, they either tied the vote hoping this would happen (which was very thoughtful and lucky of them) or figured they would have to take the loss and voted for the player less valuable to themselves. This implies that civvie and baddie votes could both have been fairly concentrated, and means the few single votes and no-votes aren't any more or less suspicious, as there was one baddie team that wasn't necessarily involved at all.

3) They're baddies on different teams, which would mean both baddie teams tried to make the other team's member lose. This would mean the civvie votes were more spread out, and baddie votes would be concentrated among the top 2 or 3 vote-getters. It seems somewhat likely given that baddies can coordinate and civvies can't. This theory would mean He-Man is on BF's baddie team and was trying to save him, while Roxy was on the other baddie team. The singletons and non-voters are most likely civvies in this case (bad news, if so many civvies are failing to vote and post).

Any input on this theory, or which of the 3 is most likely? I'm completely spitballing. Being a first-timer, I have no knowledge of how baddie voting strategies tend to play out. Can speak from past experience on whether baddie teams will vote together early to save one of their own even though it likely means increased suspicion later, or the likelihood of a baddie voting war?

Sorry this got so long. Hope it generates useful theories!

blindfaeth wrote:

DFaraday wrote:Yay game!

Yes, I know it's not mathematically sound, but I went with Dragon Walker anyway. At the very least, I'm guaranteed 3 moves per roll (plus I'd feel bad if nobody picked it, haha).

No shame in that. there is a 50% chance of getting a 6 too. The attack trak has a 50% chance of getting a 6 or higher, though. It also has 20% chance to go slower than the dragon walker would on its worst roll.

I just dont think the wind walker makes sense over the attack trak. Sure, it can go 1 or 2 faster than the attack trak, but there is a 1 in 3 chance it doesn't move at all. Epig said we have 5 die rolls, so probably 1 or 2 if not more will be a 0~

I'll be honest, I don't think the Stridor has a chance in hell of getting there first, its main draw is the info drop.