The Syndicate

MovingPictures07 wrote:If you keep Elo alive today despite the fact that she voted for me, a player she did NOT suspect and thought was civilian, during D3, then I don't know what to do with you guys.

It has NOTHING to do with the fact that it was me. She threw off onto a player she consistently thought was civilian, and in an incredibly significant lynch when espers could have died, because it was unpredictable and she couldn't decide what to do.

If you don't believe me, re-read Elo's EoD D3. She was bouncing ALL OVER. Wonder why? She couldn't decide what to do. She considered Cookie when I considered Cookie. Then I told her, boom make a decision, say a suspect, and she couldn't even do that. She eventually gave me G-Man, but she voted for me anyway.

Then she went into D4 hoping to ride the tide of the LoRab lynch, switching her tune when espers seemed a sure thing.

She did the same thing with her EoD N4 post.

If you read her posts, taking into account the suspicions of the thread at the time, I swear to you all, she has been the absolute definition of opportunistic mafia player. She is fabricating her suspicions.

fixed

Ricochet wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Votes analyses can only get you so far.
I used to believe this as well, until Biblical. I took the votes + posts mix strategy in reading players. I never saw through Mordecai's balanced, blendy content, not to mention Esther and Rahab's entire gameplay, which looked spotless to me. I then got burn lynched for not being decisive on Mordecai. By contrast, Absalom (Llama) thrived (and later got to gloat about it, too) on reading only vote patterns and catching mafia.

That's my point. It can't be ONLY vote analysis.

Elo's D1 and D4 votes can be seen as the weak distancing they are when you look at how she formed the suspicions surrounding the votes.

If you keep Elo alive today despite the fact that she voted for me, a player she did NOT suspect and thought was civilian, during D3, then I don't know what to do with you guys.

It has NOTHING to do with the fact that it was me. She threw off onto a player she consistently thought was civilian, and in an incredibly significant lynch when espers could have died, because it was unpredictable and she couldn't decide what to do.

If you don't believe me, re-read Elo's EoD D3. She was bouncing ALL OVER. Wonder why? She couldn't decide what to do. She considered Cookie when I considered Cookie. Then I told her, boom make a decision, say a suspect, and she couldn't even do that. She eventually gave me G-Man, but she voted for me anyway.

Then she went into D4 hoping to ride the tide of the LoRab lynch, switching her tune when espers seemed a sure thing.

She did the same thing with her EoD D5 post.

If you read her posts, taking into account the suspicions of the thread at the time, I swear to you all, she has been the absolute definition of opportunistic mafia player. She is fabricating her suspicions.

And look at how both of you are writing her off because of it! It worked! Despite her post content consistently being the most anti-town game I've seen in a long time.

You know how easy it would have been for a Sloonei teammate to cast Elo's D1 and D4 votes?

Easy.

G-Man wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
G-Man wrote: You say Elo is the final Inmate. I say she's not. I realize that my mafia reputation is old, dusty, and out of practice but I believe in my votes analyses. Your mafia reputation versus mine- let's do this!
You're on.

Now vote for her and prove me right.
I still have her pegged as a possibility for Moloch but I'm hunting for Big Figure today. I'm not interested in voting for someone who I don't suspect of being Big Figure.

G-Man, what more do I have to say to convince you that Elo is mafia?

Russ, regardless of whether you think I'm tunneling, think about how Elo has played this game.

Votes analyses can only get you so far.

Epignosis bussed DDL by being the first to vote for him on D1 in Guess Who?. It guaranteed him a victory. Elo hosted that game. She clearly is trying to change up her baddie style here, and she did so sloppily.

Russtifinko wrote:MP, yeah, without meta Elo's posts look bad. But as G-Man just pointed out, her votes look good. And more importantly, you HAVE to consider meta with Elo because she ALWAYS looks bad to some degree. (Kicks dead horse one last time for good measure.) your last post pretty much sums it up. No quote cuz I'm on phone, but you said "she fucking voted me" and in the next sentence "could it get any scummier?". You are tunneling HARD on this because you felt attacked, and you oughta check yourself.

I'm also not sure if I buy that you fake-suspected me, but we'll leave that for now.

And Scotty, you can question my motivation on what I said about MM, but the point remains: there is no benefit whatsoever to a lone baddie or indie to give the civs info we need and don't have. Completely altruistic gesture on his part.

Voting records are a tricky thing.

I already proved that both of her votes look terrible when combined with her content. She clearly was trying to decide whether to bus Sloonei. She CAST OFF onto someone she thought was "really civ" the D3 lynch when she easily could have bussed espers. She only bussed espers on D4 when it was inevitable he was dying.

Russ, I swear to god I've checked myself. Elo's behavior is classic baddie.

What kind of civilian can't even articulate her reads during EoD D3? It's because she is MAKING UP SUSPECTS.

G-Man wrote:TERMS:

Should you accept my offer to take you up on your bet, the loser must acknowledge their error in their signature for a full year.

If you are correct that Elo is the final Inmate, I will post this in my signature:
I, G-Man, bet my mafia reputation against MovingPictures07's mafia reputation in Watchmen Mafia and I was wrong.
If I am correct that Elo is not the final Inmate, you will post this in your signature:
I, MovingPictures07, bet my mafia reputation against G-Man's mafia reputation in Watchmen Mafia and I was wrong.
And if you chicken out on this bet, I shall post this in my signature:
In Watchmen Mafia, MovingPictures07 stated he would bet his mafia reputation that a player was bad. I offered to take him up on that bet and he chickened out.

Done.

G-Man wrote: You say Elo is the final Inmate. I say she's not. I realize that my mafia reputation is old, dusty, and out of practice but I believe in my votes analyses. Your mafia reputation versus mine- let's do this!

You're on.

Now vote for her and prove me right.

MM, I think it's prudent that we catch the last mafia member today. If we catch Moloch, great, since it does appear we need him gone, but I think I have something really solid on Elo here and I'm willing to take a firm stand with it. She's been opportunistic all game, she couldn't even bluff her way out of EoD D3. She fucking voted for me in an unpredictable lynch even though she admitted she was reading me civilian and thought G-Man was her top suspect. Could that get any more scummy? She's relying on people to meta read her a certain way, just like Vompatti did in Biblical. Vompatti lasted way too long. Elo has lasted way too long.

I'm laying it all on the line. If Elo isn't bad, I'll eat a hat.

On that note, see you folks tomorrow.

I'm not dicking around with my votes anymore. I'm willing to take full responsibility for this lynch.

She also never played an "important role". BOTH of her teammate votes were only riding the tide of the thread. She couldn't even articulate what she found suspicious of Sloonei, ever, or why she backed off. It's because she was panicking!

Russ, if you can go through the ISO and explain to me how her behavior is civilian, rather than Elo-like, then feel free to cast your vote elsewhere.

She's absolutely bad. She tried fooling us all, but she picked the wrong person to move against in the final hours here. I'd absolutely stake my reputation that she's the last mafia member.

I'm actually casting my vote for Elo right now.

If I'm wrong, I swear you guys can lynch me if you wish. I really don't think I am. I really think Elo outed herself with this final move against me.

If you read her posts, thinking critically about why a mafia or civilian would act that way, her actions make WAY more sense as mafia. Don't view her as Elo. View her as a player. Eliminate meta and she's the obvious missing mafia.

Russtifinko wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:My thoughts on you yesterday, Russ, were purposeful.
What does this mean? You were feeling me out and didn't actually suspect me? Or you had some ulterior motive?

Bingo. I also wanted to see if anyone would jump onto it.

MovingPictures07 wrote:What is it that makes you think this is civilian Elo, Russ?

I've mislynched civilian Elo too many times to count, but this is not civilian Elo.
But WHY, though? Your iso shows her doing Elo-type stuff, at what to me seems a normal Elo level. And then suspecting you. Even if I take the standpoint of 100% assuming you're civ, it's a hard case to swallow, man.

Your problem is that you're taking meta into account too much. Just look at her actions themselves and try not to consider meta. If you do that, she looks absolutely mafia.

Yes, she's done some weird stuff, but she played an important role in at least one baddie lynch, and she always does weird stuff. I see nothing out of character, and I don't see baddie Elo throwing teammates under the bus on a team of 3 in a 19-person game.

WIFOM. Also, she clearly voted for Sloonei only when she had to, only after vaguely suspecting him, then dropping him, AMID the tide of the thread. She did the same thing with espers, casting a totally worthless vote on D3 and then voting for him on Day 4 when she knew he was toast.

MovingPictures07 wrote:That said, Russ, I will try my best to discuss other suspects.

I do agree I'd like to hear from G-Man. What are your thoughts on him, Russ?
I think I should be able to read him better after hosting him in Econ, and I think he's being as unhelpful as MM. I don't know yet if it makes him bad, but I want to see more because I'd like to make up my mind.

On another note, I think the theory that a baddie teammate would have not voted espers on D3 and then thrown in the towel on D4 and done it makes a lot of sense. Not that it absolutely happened, mind you. Just that it's something I'll be factoring in to my vote considerations today.

Please read the ISO again, or at least skim it, and try to consider meta as little as possible.

It's why I'm suddenly really confident that she's mafia. She's opportunistically jumping around from suspect to suspect; most of the time she cannot articulate whom she suspects; the most damning things against her are the sloppy Sloonei distancing and the terrible completely anti-town behavior at EoD D3.

Literally almost every major suspect she's had, she's tried riding the tide of the thread. Sloonei, G-Man, espers, LoRab, me.

Dude, seriously. I'm totally positive here. I've been considering her meta all game. She's fooling us all hard.

No one's around to discuss my thoughts or ISO on Elo.

That said, Russ, I will try my best to discuss other suspects.

I do agree I'd like to hear from G-Man. What are your thoughts on him, Russ?

What is it that makes you think this is civilian Elo, Russ?

I've mislynched civilian Elo too many times to count, but this is not civilian Elo.

My thoughts on you yesterday, Russ, were purposeful.

Russ, I urge you to reconsider. I'm pretty sure I'm right.

I know I could be tunneling, but I don't believe I am.

I fully recognize Elo has a bizarre civilian game, but the fact is that she suspected Sloonei, backed off of him after I backed off of him, then changed her mind again when he came under fire. Her suspicion of Sloonei was opportunistic.

Her suspicion of G-Man during D1 was opportunistic, since it also came and went when he was under fire.

She has consistently suspected G-Man and LC without being able to articulate why.

Nonetheless, when I pressured her at end of D3, she couldn't even find a player to vote. She keeps chalking it up to being giddy, but that has literally nothing to do with the fact that she has had suspects all game.

During D3, when I brought up Cookie, she even seemed willing to consider a Cookie vote, despite the fact that earlier she thought Cookie seemed town and would be shocked if she was "faking it".

Then she suddenly thinks LoRab is one of two teammates on D4. Guess who seemed very likely to be lynched that day?

Then she suddenly thinks I'm the last mafia, after the heat is headed my way.

Opportunistic in every possible way.

I don't know if we need Moloch dead. I assume so.

Why have you cast your vote for DDL already? You have no thoughts on Elo?

Man, you're being overly cryptic even for yourself this game.

Metalmarsh, I'm pretty sure we're seeing civilian DDL. If not, Moloch at worst.

I'd bet my mafia reputation that it's Elo.

Anyway, just please read my ISO and let me know what you think.

I know this is high level of confidence, but I really think she's our last mafia.

A lot of her posts actually make more sense when you consider her as mafia.

Remember that quote she said at EoD D3 when I applied pressure on her? She said she was hoping that she wouldn't be suspected because she had a good voting record.

Why would a civilian be afraid of that?

LoRab wrote:@MP: Not accusing you of a switcheroo (the term I'm used to for what other sites call OMGUS, because it's nicer), but do you think your opinion of Elo is being colored by her accusing you? Honest question.

I'm glad you asked this, LoRab.

I'm considering it even as we speak, but I don't think so. She's taking advantage of the fact that there was heavy heat being applied in my direction, and her push against me, especially as she implies she suddenly knows, strikes as opportunistic. I don't think it matters that it's me, it just matters that I was the low hanging fruit going into D5.

She did the same thing against you just before on D4, when she said she thought you were one of the last two baddies.

Guys, please read my ISO on Elohcin that I posted a cycle ago, if you haven't.

Pay close attention to her interaction with Sloonei. Now we know espers was a teammate, it's shown that espers voted for his teammate on D1. If Elo is mafia, she did as well. That Elo/Sloonei distancing seems BAD and sloppy, and consequently many of us were writing it off, but I think it should be revisited.

Her EoD D3 behavior made it clear to me that she's fabricating her reads, since she couldn't even cast a vote for anyone, nor could she name a top suspect.

For most of the game, she has considered me to be a strong civilian read, yet she voted for me on D3 nonetheless.

Now she conveniently has a revelation that I'm the last mafia, since DDL has been aggressively pursuing me as a suspect (at least his reasons are logical).

etc.

I want opinions. I'll stop spamming the thread now, sorry. G-Man will agree that I was due for a dogpeeing at some point.

Bah, quote fail! Fixed here. Sorry.

Every time Elo has issued an opinion on me

DAY 1

Elohcin wrote: So...overall, my reads are....
I am feeling good about:
Cookie - she seems too overwhelmed to have a team.
DDL - seems too comfortable to be bad atm
MP - very friendly and helpful which seems good to me
Golden - I have a hard time reading golden often, but I *think* I am seeing a good golden

I am feeling uneasy about:
G-Man - does not claim to be civ (may be a watchman - those with the additional win condition) but possibly Mafia
Sloonei - Just something about him reads scummy to me. Can't put my finger on it.

I still have no clue who I will vote today. There are still so many quiet players. But, time to go burn some calories I will be back later.

NIGHT 2

Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
If you'll notice, Golden did not have Blooper first on his rainbow list. In fact, I'm the only one that called her my top read, if I recall correctly (and I'm pretty sure about this).

It's possible the mafia are fucking with me by killing off my top reads (they killed llama N1 and Blooper N2, both of my top reads), but to automatically think that the mafia are blindly following the opinions of just ONE individual is not worth cancelling my rainbow reads. I want everyone to know everything that I'm thinking.
I hate to even say this b/c I really feel like you are civilian. But, it could be that you are Mafia and killing off your own top reads.

NIGHT 3

Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:B/c you held a watergun to my head.
You've said multiple times in this game that you think I'm really civilian, yet you cast your vote for me.
I really do think you are civ. I won't let you gt lynched for real.

NIGHT 4

Elohcin wrote:IF MP is bad, I will be blown away. He's played a good baddie game. But, DDL does make some good points about his EoD behavior and his vote doesn't look so good today. I will be taking a good look at everyone and the voting records over the next 47 hours.

Every time Elo has issued an opinion on me

DAY 1

Elohcin wrote: So...overall, my reads are....
I am feeling good about:
Cookie - she seems too overwhelmed to have a team.
DDL - seems too comfortable to be bad atm
MP - very friendly and helpful which seems good to me
Golden - I have a hard time reading golden often, but I *think* I am seeing a good golden

I am feeling uneasy about:
G-Man - does not claim to be civ (may be a watchman - those with the additional win condition) but possibly Mafia
Sloonei - Just something about him reads scummy to me. Can't put my finger on it.

I still have no clue who I will vote today. There are still so many quiet players. But, time to go burn some calories I will be back later.

NIGHT 2

Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
If you'll notice, Golden did not have Blooper first on his rainbow list. In fact, I'm the only one that called her my top read, if I recall correctly (and I'm pretty sure about this).

It's possible the mafia are fucking with me by killing off my top reads (they killed llama N1 and Blooper N2, both of my top reads), but to automatically think that the mafia are blindly following the opinions of just ONE individual is not worth cancelling my rainbow reads. I want everyone to know everything that I'm thinking.
I hate to even say this b/c I really feel like you are civilian. But, it could be that you are Mafia and killing off your own top reads.

NIGHT 3

Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:B/c you held a watergun to my head.
You've said multiple times in this game that you think I'm really civilian, yet you cast your vote for me.

NIGHT 4

Elohcin wrote:IF MP is bad, I will be blown away. He's played a good baddie game. But, DDL does make some good points about his EoD behavior and his vote doesn't look so good today. I will be taking a good look at everyone and the voting records over the next 47 hours.
I really do think you are civ. I won't let you gt lynched for real.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:RIP Juliets.

MovingPictures07 wrote:DDL, just want to tell you: When I order my suspects within my rainbow lists, I do so alphabetically, not by order of suspicion. If they're the same color, that means I feel the same way about them.

I'll be back later tonight, folks!
Oh, sorry. I suppose that invalidades some points in my ISO.

I'll look at it better tomorrow. It's day 2 on the other game and I have about 10 votes on me right now.

Good night.

No problem. Sorry that was unclear!

She specifically is putting heat on me today because now anything I say against her can be argued is an OMGUS.

Guys, Elo is the last mafia. I'm sure of it. She's taking advantage of the momentum there is to vote for me, based on what DDL has been pushing, in order to lead a lynch on me. Her vote on D1 for Sloonei was clearly after seeing how Epi's vote succeeded for him in Guess Who?, and her sloppy distancing from Sloonei was real.

In fact, if you lynch Elo today and she comes back civilian, I implore all of you to lynch me immediately thereafter.

Responses in bolded cyan:

Elohcin wrote:So just in case I suffer death tonight, I want to get my thoughts out there. I types this post up early this morning. Please read MP for yourselves as well and see if you see what I see. I really think it he may be the last Inmate.
You say here "please read MP for yourselves". Does that mean you read ALL of my posts. What of my posts did you read exactly?
--------------------------------------------------
MP - To answer your question, I don't know how many times I have to tell you all, I was not in my right mind on the eveing of Day 3. I had VERY little sleep the night before and I was so very giddy and tired. Everything was hilarious to me at the time. The fact that you keep harping on it, gives me reason to think you're bad. That, along with DDL's thoughts on your EoD behavior, has caused me to want to reread you. First, DDL's thoughts on you.
What does that have to do with having legitimate suspects? So because you're sleep deprived, you suddenly forget the thoughts you had on other players for the previous portion of the game?

So again, you say you "reread" me. I don't believe you.

You're latching onto DDL's thoughts because you saw there was a real chance for me to get lynched today. I'll prove it.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Every time you ask a player A, with 30 minutes left in the poll, what they think of player B, despite the fact neither player A or player B are getting any votes in the poll, I can't help but think you are doing that just to make it look like you're doing something when you aren't.
and
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:No, I'm not. I've watched two EOD's where MP keeps flip-flopping around literally everybody while asking random "what do you think about X" questions before finally settling down for a vote that did not change anything in the lynch.
To elaborate on that, I do feel like an hour or so before EoD you've been getting very pushy and flip-flopping. At EoD 3, you even said
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm switching gears. I will discuss DH and others more after EoD. We're quickly running out of time.
For now, I ONLY want to discuss these players:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Here are all of the players that I'm currently considering for my vote, from least to most likely:
G-Man
Metalmarsh89
LoRab
Cookie
Dragon D. Luffy
espers
Thoughts? Go. Anything.
I did respond to that at the time. It pinged me that you were not even interested in talking about anyone but YOUR suspects and I said as much. This showed me that you were trying to manipulate the thread. A great Mafia tactic is to make the civilians think there are only a few options to pick from when it comes to the lynch. I think that is what you were trying to do here. AND, I think you threw espers in there to try make yourself look good, but I don't think you ever intended us to really vote for him. I think ika replacing espers sounded like a breath of fresh air to you but when he turned out to be an asshat, you panicked.
I never said that. You're the one twisting my words. I even admitted those weren't the only options.

Your espers argument is WIFOM. Nothing I can really say there.
After ika replaced espers, you tell the thread that you decide voting espers is NOT best, but that Russ is now your new top suspect.
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm incredibly tempted to vote for Russ right now. He's playing the low-posting, insightful additional commentary, never shaking any trees, never committing too much, type of blendy mafia game. His inconsistencies regarding me and Elo and his lack of explanations for his reads that he's been arbitrarily throwing out are also notable.
I also believe we'll gain insight on espers / ika, as well as Elo, if Russ were to flip mafia or civilian, since Russ voiced suspicion of both of those players, only to back off completely.
However, you sneak in that a Russ lynch will give up insight on espers/ika which helps you still look good and apease the civ population.
Then as ika and I are going back and forth about his apathy towards the game of mafia, MP does not even state his opinion but only asks:
MovingPictures07 wrote: What do you folks think of these posts by ika (espers)?
When have you all known MP NOT to give an opinion and ONLY to ask others what they think. This is not like a civ MP.
Back up this assertion. Now. It is blatantly not true.
He wanted to get everyone else's reaction to ika so he could know how to play the situation and hopefully get out of lynching his newly replaced teammate.
So as he sees that people are starting to vote for espers/ika he says this.
MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't understand why everyone is jumping on ika for the sportsmanship post.
Here is MP's Day 4 Rainbow list @ 9:18 pm by the way.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Updated list of the players that I'm currently considering for my D4 vote, from least to most likely:
Elohcin
LoRab
Cookie
espers / ika
Russtifinko
Then at 9:28pm, TEN MINUTES LATER he says he is most likely to vote COOKIE! -his third option from 10 minutes prior.
I've explained that those three options were all "equal" in my mind, so your point is moot.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Scotty wrote:MP, then vote. DDL does make a point. Most people have voted already, and right now it's looking espers is getting lynched. What are you going to do
Why would I not wait until the last possible minute to cast my vote?
I'm still mulling over all of the options, but I'm almost certainly going to vote for Cookie. But I don't know.
Allow me to cast my vote on my own terms, please.
Then after espers/ika is lynched, Russ isn't even on him rainbow list anymore.
Russ's vote during Day 4 looked pretty good, don't you think?
MovingPictures07 wrote:Here is my updated half-Rainbow List:
Elohcin
G-Man
TinyBubbles / Bass_the_Clever
LoRab
Metalmarsh89
Dragon D. Luffy
Cookie
And then MP is trying to get an idea of who he should kill since his teammates are dead.
WIFOM.
MovingPictures07 wrote:I just want to express my opinion that I think it might be best if players at least left some indication of what they're thinking before Night 4 ends. If you feel comfortable doing so closer to end of Night 4, that's fine, but we have no idea who's going to die tonight, and I think it's best that no one die with their thoughts.

Sorry for the rushed responses, but I'm emotionally exhausted this game.

I'll actually address your case properly now.

I actually think your manufactured case against me is even more cause for concern. You're falling down my list.

Elohcin wrote:So just in case I suffer death tonight, I want to get my thoughts out there. I types this post up early this morning. Please read MP for yourselves as well and see if you see what I see. I really think it he may be the last Inmate.
--------------------------------------------------
MP - To answer your question, I don't know how many times I have to tell you all, I was not in my right mind on the eveing of Day 3. I had VERY little sleep the night before and I was so very giddy and tired. Everything was hilarious to me at the time. The fact that you keep harping on it, gives me reason to think you're bad. That, along with DDL's thoughts on your EoD behavior, has caused me to want to reread you. First, DDL's thoughts on you.

Elo, I just can't get over how ridiculous your thoughts are here.

Next time I think you're "very civ", I'll name no suspects and vote for you in a super tight lynch, then suspect anyone that suspects me for such ridiculously suspicious behavior.

Also, Elo, like DDL, you're reading my lists wrong.

Within each color, I list players alphabetically. That means I was equally considering Cookie, espers / ika, and Russ for my vote. Not that I was MOST considering Russ.

You want to know why Russ isn't on my rainbow list anymore? He cast the FIRST vote for espers / ika during Day 4.

RIP juliets.

Elo, you're wrong about me. As wrong as you could possibly be.

DDL, just want to tell you: When I order my suspects within my rainbow lists, I do so alphabetically, not by order of suspicion. If they're the same color, that means I feel the same way about them.

I'll be back later tonight, folks!

I just want to express my opinion that I think it might be best if players at least left some indication of what they're thinking before Night 4 ends. If you feel comfortable doing so closer to end of Night 4, that's fine, but we have no idea who's going to die tonight, and I think it's best that no one die with their thoughts. Having a confirmed civilian (pretty much, unless you're Moloch and die tonight, but I think that's unlikely) with thoughts puts all of town in a better position going forward, rather than wondering "I wonder what that near-confirmed town player was thinking?"

If you'd rather leave out the details, that's fine, but I don't necessarily think it's wise for us to leave anything important unsaid, especially since there's only one mafia member remaining.

It's why I left a half-rainbow. I can't imagine I'll die, but in case I do, at least now all of you will know what I was thinking.

However, you all may feel free to do as you wish.

Here is my updated half-Rainbow List:

Elohcin
G-Man
TinyBubbles / Bass_the_Clever

LoRab
Metalmarsh89

Dragon D. Luffy

Cookie

Elohcin's D3 vote (a throw off onto me) stinks heavily. Although her fourth vote on D4 secured espers/ika's fate, and her vote on D1 secured Sloonei's fate, she's still on my list, mainly thanks to her sketchy D3 EoD behavior.

G-Man's vote for Metalmarsh D4 was incredibly noncommittal and unsatisfying. That said, his D3 vote for espers could have killed him, so G-Man that keeps him at the top of my list, despite the still odd possible distancing from Sloonei on D1, and a lack of convincing baddie hunting lately from G-Man.

TinyBubbles has recently replaced Bass, whose behavior I found civilian-leaning for the earlier half of the game, but in recent periods, it's difficult to analyze behavior since it's been (understandably, perhaps) lacking.

LoRab's fifth vote for espers / ika sealed his fate firmly, but it's possible she felt comfortable bussing her teammate after it seemed his fate was pretty much over. She could easily defend her vote in the interest of self-defense as well. I will admit that I'm mostly keeping her on my list due to tenacity, so I need to ISO her to truly determine how I feel about her.

Metalmarsh89's lack of baddie hunting during D4, when I knew he was capable otherwise, combined with his tunnel vision on LoRab, can't help but look bad amid espers / ika's flip.

DDL's vote history is actually pretty bad, recently (voting for DH on D3 over espers, as well as LoRab on D4 over espers / ika), but he had a decisive vote for Sloonei on D1 that looks pretty solid. Need to ISO him.

Interestingly, it seems Cookie saved espers on Day 3, only to throw him under on Day 4. In my opinion, her stinky vote on Day 3 actually overrides any civilian cred gained from Day 4, so my eye is firmly on her still, even much more than I thought it would be.

All of this said, I need to make sure to keep in mind to consider all of these players' behavior from a civilian perspective, since I think such behavior can be found in each of these player's cases.

Note: I likely won't be back until Day 5, and won't be posting as much as I did Day 4. I apologize if I've made this game unfun or too difficult to keep up on for anyone. I realize I've posted a lot. I'm just trying to put my utmost into this game. Apparently, it hasn't worked very well. Nonetheless, please address me if you have questions.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Actually, considering the timing for the ika voting, I think Russ, Eloh, juliets and Cookie all look good here. Or at least, "not Big Figure". Could all still be Moloch.

You could argue Cookie was saving herself, but she could have saved herself by voting LoRaB. She didn't. Neither did ika, who voted Cookie.

Of course, that's assuming they would never throw each other under the bus at this situation. Though there is this:

ika wrote:if im baddie, i tell my teammated how i play as baddie and what they need to do. i can try my darnest for them but i always give them the abloslute of bus me to hell. i gve adive to them and tell them who they need to stratiticly kill and set up long term plans and plans to back that if it fails. in short: i do but i suck at it and are a better planner
WIFOM pls? Why did he even bother to say this? No idea.

ika was in a really bad shape at this point so a sacrifice of him, although terrible in the long run, could spell good for his partner in the long run.

So the bottomline is, the meaning of this poll depends on how willing you think Big Figure was to sacrifice his teamate.

Eloh looks particulary unlikely to be Big Figure, though, since she sacrificed both of her teamates. Could still be Moloch. Serial Killer Eloh all over again?

I think your conclusions here are logical, DDL, but I want to issue a warning for everyone wishing to analyze voting behavior:

1) Voting records are a tricky thing. Golden's voting record was bad, especially since he blatantly defended Sloonei, but he turned out to be a civilian who legitimately found nothing wrong with Sloonei's behavior. It appears as though my voting record is burning me in a similar fashion, although there are some unknowns (we don't know whether Cookie is bad, for instance). Also, let's keep in mind that espers has had significant heat ever since his D1 vote, so...

2) Be sure to analyze Day 3 as much as, if not even more so, than D4 voting records. Espers was tied for the lynch D3 and could have died then, so it's notable that, if Elo is the last teammate, she failed to vote for her teammate on D3, instead making a very suspicious vote throwing off onto me, then decided to bus him on D4.

I just think it's prudent that we consider every explanation for every player's behavior, then obviously we can make our own judgment as to what is occurring.

I'm going to provide rainbow reads (either half or full, not sure yet) shortly, after mulling over the D3 and D4 voting records.

Scotty, EBWOP:

Despite what I said above, I feel as though there were legitimate reasons for me to doubt my suspicions of both Sloonei and espers / ika, and reasons to suspect those I voted instead, in the moment, so I stand by my thought process. Nonetheless, it seems my methods have been coming up frustratingly short in key lynches.

Spoiler: show

Scotty, I think I fared pretty badly today wrt my vote. I don't know. I feel like this is very similar to the Sloonei D1 situation, where I had a legitimate reason for finding the player-to-be-lynched suspicious, then second guessed myself too much, backed off, and went with a candidate that emerged later for a different reason.

I definitely do not believe Cookie is bad with the same fervor that I did previously. It is still possible, I suppose, but seems much less likely.

Spoiler: show

Elohcin, how so? What points did DDL make about my EoD behavior that make you believe I am mafia? Can you elaborate?

Spoiler: show

Dragon D. Luffy, I understand. I even understand your interpretation (that I'm trying to stay out of trouble), but I assure you that is not the case. I'm putting literally everything out there. There's no way I can stay out of trouble or the spotlight by playing the way I've been playing. I am not complaining. It's a product of the way I've chosen to play this game. I want you and others to examine my posts.

I honestly had no idea that every player I've voted is still alive. It makes sense though. It's not intentional. Why would I want it to be intentional?

I look forward to your ISOs, I just hope you can see my behavior from every perspective.

No worries, man, you didn't insult me. If anything, you've done the opposite, because you're holding my play to a level of excellence that I'm clearly failing to meet.

In fact, I recognize I broke down a bit last night, and I'm currently still feeling a bit disheartened. I feel like, no matter what method of mafia hunting I try this game, I just haven't been able to execute confident reads on mafia players. So, by all means DDL, if you think it's because I've been trying to avoid the lynches of my teammates, then so be it, but nonetheless, I hope that you look hard at my posts and determine that is not the case. If you have questions about any of my behavior or vote thinking process, please ask, and I hope that I can illuminate my genuine thoughts for you.

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko wrote:
LoRab wrote: linkitis: @Russ: I so don't think of myself as legendary, so thanks. Really, I've just been playing for a long time. And, at some point, someone found a twirly smiley for me because I always post the "eye me all you want" thing and I get all twirly while I'm being eyed. But, about this game, I'm not trying to be frivolous. I'm just a bit quirky and think about things differently than a lot of players. I notice small details and figure things out from that. It's really just how I play.
Fair enough! Thanks for the response.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Can't say I'm shocked MP is suspecting me. Bring it on, chum!

Imma go ahead and vote espers/ika for tonight, though. I don't see anything convincing me otherwise, and someone's gotta get to the polls here.

Linki: Hmm. Well, MP, I guess to respond to the majority of your points, I haven't said most of the things I brought up because I haven't posted much at all about anything. As I said, that's changing today, so I'm saying what's on my mind.

As to being noncommittal, I feel like every time I've posted I've tried to be super clear about what I think of whom, since I haven't been posting much otherwise. Yeah, my mind has changed on some people, and yeah, since I haven't posted as much you haven't gotten to see the full progression of those changes. Saying I'm not committing too any reads is probably overplaying your hand tho.

Double Linki: Let me post! And stop it with the living rooms!
I understand, Russ. I just hope to see more thought process from you, because otherwise it's difficult to discern whether you are latching onto suspicions for convenience or whether you just haven't been fully articulating why you suspect whom you suspect. Does that make sense?
Yeah for sure. I'm on board with you there; I need to be posting more and making my train of thought easier to follow, and I appreciate you saying that that's the case.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Well, so much for the controlled manner of playing from MP.
Good to see it gone at least once. It's not mafia if you don't get pissed off on a daily basis.

We'll never gonna be able to read that guy unless we knock him out of his confort zone.
I actually agree with this, and from a game perspective I appreciated it even though it frustrated him. I think having pressure on him let me read MP better there. Fwiw he pretty much read as civvie MP to me in that interaction. Not to say I won't have my eye on him (I will), but it improved my gut read.

Russtifinko, I'm glad to see your reasoned response. I'm actually not sure what to make of it in terms of your alignment, so I still have my

on you, but nonetheless I appreciate that you understand my POV.

Why did you read me as civilian during that interaction? What about my responses when DDL (and, to a lesser extent, Scotty) were applying pressure on me at EoD?

Good morning, thread!

Let me respond to some things shortly here.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote: Do you really think I need to convince anyone that I'm doing something this game?
No.

But you need to convince us you are doing it with the intent to catch baddies.
If you really don't think I've made every action this game with the intent to catch baddies, then by all means, vote for me. I don't know what else I could possibly do. This is supatown MP. I've put literally every bit of time and thought into this game that I possibly can.
That's what scares me. Because I don't know mafia MP. I wish I did, but I don't. But mafia MP can't be that different from supatown MP. Otherwise you'd be a terrible baddie player, and I don't think you are.

It's hard to attack high-effort players like you because you have all the effort to show. But mafia can be high-effort too. I can't give you a pass for that.

In the end, all I can do is vote analysis. Because votes are the only thing in mafia that never lies. And I'm not liking what yours are telling me.

I'm not saying you should give me a pass. By any means.

I can understand your perspective, at least. Like always, if you have questions, let me know. As I've said, I am NOT this clumsy of a baddie. I actually get way more nervous defending my teammates than I do throwing them under the bus. It's less risky to me to throw teammates under, especially in a one mafia game, than risk saving your teammate for another day at the expense of being automatic dead meat the moment your teammates does get lynched.

Analyzing interactions between espers and other players might be illuminating, since espers made it through Day 3. It's difficult to discern whether the remaining teammate would have thrown him under the bus, thinking he was dead meat going into today after almost dying yesterday, or did not vote for him.

I'm exhausted, though, so I'm signing off from this game for the night.

Oh, I see it now.

Wow. Awesome! BIH Espers / ika.

Well done, folks.

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