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by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 8:09 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

IKA / INAWORDYES
Day 1
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:can anyone say CFD? :P

im up for his lynch

GOD DAMN PEDITS
This is the first time ika mentions IAWY, only after thread pressure was applied against him.
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:vote inaworldyes

CHINESE FIRE DRILL TIME!!!!!!!11
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:
ika wrote:VOTE INAWORDYES

CHINESE FIRE DRILL TIME!!!!!!!11

FIX VOTES!!!!

GOGOGOGOGOG
*involuntary eye twitch*

All of this is roughly 3 hours for d1 EoD.
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
ika wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:Since there are now no votes on MP and I have changed my mind about MM, I'm switching my vote to Silverwolf because her inconsistency regarding Inawordyes is more alarming to me than Long Con's Sloonei vote. As for the wagon on Inawordyes, I'm somewhat on the fence about him, but gun to my head, I would say he is town. I'm not confident enough in that read to vocally oppose the lynch but I am not going to vote for him unless it's to save someone who I more confidently read as civilian.

VOTE SILVERWOLF
shes town

did you read her iso? she said it was in there
I read her ISO. It didn't help wash away the inconsistency that I perceive her to have, it only made it more clear to me that her read of IAWY is a fabrication. I can't see what town motivation she would have for fabricating a read of someone who she currently has a vote for near end of day.
explain to me how its a fabrication cus she doesnt fabirctae reads. she was scum readding him all day
This doesn't have to do with IAWY, really, but I included it because, from what I can tell, ika seems to be following Silver's confidence with respect to IAWY.
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:
Sloonei wrote:I have 80 minutes to play some mafia. I'm not reading the thread, but somebody tell me what's going on and why I should vote for people.
vote Inawordyes then sloonie
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
Golden wrote:Look at how passionate people are in the for and against camps, you included. Are you really saying we are getting nothing?
I'm talking about his content now. I haven't read all the posts surrounding MM and IAWY even. I don't particularly feel MM is scum and there's no way of knowing IAWY's alignment. Also, I fear that if IAWY flips town then there's a lot of town on his wagon, and scum can easily defend it and throw suspicion on town later. It's just a much higher risk to me lynching someone who has barely talked.
disagree 100%

are you willingt o take a bet on the flip then?
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
ika wrote:if your willing to take a bet i might answer
I don't care about your bet. Sure. Yes. No. Fine, whatever, tell me. How sure are you based on what?
so the bet is this, if hes scum i get your vote, if hes town you have my vote

deal?

(yes im being like this intentionally, i want to see more from you as well)
ika really wants IAWY to be lynched.
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:delex the reason is due to experince, i have been playing for 4 years and just about every times (maybe like a handfull of games out of the 1000s of games i have played) have the scums always been acitve, there is about 90% scums in lurk so im doing this based on experince
Here ika gives a reason for finding IAWY scummy; he says 4 years of mafia experience has shown scums often are lurkers.
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:VOTE FROG

LETS DO VOTE TIES!
This doesn't have to do with IAWY, but note that ika tries to move his vote to Frog at the end of Day 1.


Day 2
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:Caught up. Sorting my thoughts:

Ika: Your point about MP and Sig having TMI is really bad imo. Neither strikes me as players that would make that kind of mistake, why are you not taking this into account? In what world does it make sense for you for scum!MP who is on a team with a mafia vig to come out and start the day with "oh, must be mafia vig then"? If that was me I would sure as hell avoid doing exactly that and be super aware that I shouldn't be supposed to know what the extra kill meant, and I'm pretty sure this applies to MP too.

Furthermare both MP and Sig have accounted for what made them think as they did. Your attempt to play this off as TMI looks like an excuse to scumread someone and have something to argue, and I think you're smarter than that.

Question: Why did you say people had said this play by IAWY was his scum meta? Noone said that iirc.
frog iirc
What is your read on IAWY now?
would still lynch
What if there actually is a town vig in the setup?
then egg on me, doesnt change the cnetral point, i know some of the setup haev overlaps of town and scum vig
as for the rest, you really dont know me i make shit cases all the time, ts entirely why dotn to begin with
ika says he would still lynch IAWY and that he doesn't make cases.
Spoiler: show
ika wrote:VOTE INAWORLDYES

mobile at work but this is still scum
Votes IAWY with less than 30 minutes until EoD when it was clear IAWY was already being lynched.


Summary

- If ika and IAWY are teammates, ika waited until IAWY's lynch seemed inevitable, then bussed him and didn't look back. It's believable since ika didn't even really provide much substantiation for his strong IAWY read, and his behavior (most notably, the bet with Dizzy) could be seen as driven by confirmation bias (since he knows IAWY is scum).


Conclusion

ika's behavior is teammate compatible, for sure. Teammate indicative? I don't know because it's all a giant ball of WIFOM.

What do you all think?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 8:06 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Reads list, Wilgy. Can you give me one?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:36 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

With that said, zebra's vote switching is irritating beyond anything Wilgy is doing.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:35 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:Who would you feel better not having to have their game approach around tomorrow MP - Wilgy or zebra? Who do you think is doing more harm to town chances?
Ehhhh, I don't know. I suppose Wilgy. At least zebra has contributed something this game; I still don't know what to do with Wilgy's 'gut' reads. I'm just hoping zebra actually engages the game again like she was during d2.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:34 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Golden wrote:A quick iso of sig does leave him IAWY teammate compatible for sure. I can at least see why people would genuinely be suspicious of him.
I need to dig deeper, but yeah, based on what I recall and what Scotty pulled up, I agree. I just think it's more likely we're seeing town sig defending the wrong player than a sloppy defense from a mafia sig.
I think so - I just really skim read his iso but it made me feel pretty good about sig/zebra not being a team, and about my sig town read. There is a lot in there that really genuinely feels like he is trying to solve and open to other perspectives.
I've gone back and forth on sig, but that's exactly why I feel good about him currently.

I also think his emotional reactions earlier were genuine.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:31 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:A quick iso of sig does leave him IAWY teammate compatible for sure. I can at least see why people would genuinely be suspicious of him.
I need to dig deeper, but yeah, based on what I recall and what Scotty pulled up, I agree. I just think it's more likely we're seeing town sig defending the wrong player than a sloppy defense from a mafia sig.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:31 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Okay, I don't know what the hell is going on with ika. What are we going to do with this guy? Talk to me, people.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Golden wrote:Sig has pretty consistently been after zebra since day one. If it's distance, it's an ocean, and it's a good play...
It's not something I'd put past either of them though.
No, indeed not. Sig would have to be on it from before they were talking as a team. It's not impossible, but it's not what I think is actually happening.

I'm open to a zebra lynch but it makes me more paranoid than a wilgy lynch.
Yeah, it would be a bit of a stretch. I'd rather lynch Wilgy too.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:25 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Okay, back to analysis. At this pace, I'll be done 10 years from now.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:25 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

I don't trust any of you. :omg:
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:Sig has pretty consistently been after zebra since day one. If it's distance, it's an ocean, and it's a good play...
It's not something I'd put past either of them though.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

I'm willing to consider that we could pretty much have a ????/????/???? team right now, except for me. I'm not scum.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:20 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:The only reason I'm not voting zebra is tinfoiling a wilgy/sig team tbh.

Am I wrong to tinfoil this? Is there any reason I can put this idea to rest?

Because I'd be open to a zebra lynch if I wasn't paranoid that sig is pushing it that way to keep wilgy alive.
What about a Wilgy, sig, and zebra team?

I know, it sounds insane, but the distance between zebra and sig could explain a lot of their collective behavior right now.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:18 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:
sig wrote:This is a novel idea but how about we lynch Zebra today? She is interfering with any attempt to scum hunt.
Why do you seem so unwilling to consider a Wilgy lynch?
I'd also like to know this.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:17 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

sig wrote:This is a novel idea but how about we lynch Zebra today? She is interfering with any attempt to scum hunt.
I could consider it, especially after that teammate analysis.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

a2thezebra wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:zebra, can you provide a reads list?
a2thezebra
ika
DrWilgy
MEtalmarsh89
MovingPictures07
Golden
Soneji
Scotty
sig
Care to explain the Wilgy read, considering your vote has been off and on him throughout the day?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Ugh.

UNVOTE
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:12 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:Time to move your vote back to wilgy, MP. Don't lose sight of zebra's vote shifts.
Noted, thanks, I'm fine with that since my vote will still put us 2 away from hammer. Let's just be sure not to give ika or anyone else the opportunity to hammer anyone.

VOTE DRWILGY
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:11 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
ika wrote:
Golden wrote:
All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'
Simple on why, i trust silver over anyone else. when it comes to mafia her intuition on finding scum is better then any i have encountered.

gold how come after all this time MP isnt dead? how come you still treat him as town too? didnt you say yourself that your constantly reevaluating the situation? how come you have not even batted an eye at MP even after silvers death?
The tinfoil argument? Fun. WIFOM.
Not that meaningful, though, when you look at the actual victims who have been basically strong town reads.
That's true. I think we can assume the most likely mafia targets each night were: Silverwolf (n1), Dyslexicon (n2), and Marco (n3). They all would fit that criteria.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Going to resume interaction analyses now. Seems ika is next. This one should be interesting.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:08 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

zebra, can you provide a reads list?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:07 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Metalmarsh89 wrote:What I should have done is said jackshit all game until Day 4, then vote MP with a bullshit case. His reaction would have told me what his alignment is. XD
:suspish:

Touche. :p
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:05 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:@ika - simple. I am as certain as I can be that MP is town without having a role that I can use to confirm it with info. If MP is scum he is playing the best scum game I've ever seen him play by a considerable margin.
You can read me well. :noble:
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:05 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

ika wrote:
Golden wrote:
All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'
Simple on why, i trust silver over anyone else. when it comes to mafia her intuition on finding scum is better then any i have encountered.

gold how come after all this time MP isnt dead? how come you still treat him as town too? didnt you say yourself that your constantly reevaluating the situation? how come you have not even batted an eye at MP even after silvers death?
The tinfoil argument? Fun. WIFOM.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:04 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Golden, who are the top 3 players you'd like to lynch today and why? I know you've talked about this to some degree already, but I think it's worth discussing nonetheless.
Hmm, the third is a challenge.

Wilgy is top, because he basically fits into any team I conceive of, and he has done nothing to contribute as town. He manages to combine being my top scum read with being the person I'd least like to still have to deal with at lylo. A wilgy lynch is a very easy call for me. I wish I'd gone that way yesterday (when I went to bed with my vote on Matt/sloonei I was thinking that night about whether I'd stay on sloonei or switch to wilgy - I think it probably ultimately would have stayed at sloonei but marco's points really were hitting home.)

Zebra is second. I don't really understand what is going on with zebra this game, but her behaviour does not feel like it is coming from a town-mindset. I think perhaps I genuinely upset her on day two and that has affected her approach to the game, I don't know. Sometimes it feels that way. However, after briefly seeing a little bit of genuine town mindset towards end of day one/start of day two there has been nothing else that suggests that to me. As with wilgy, I would not want to be with zebra at lylo.

I've already been pretty clear that I'd like one of these to be lynched today and the other to be sniped by the town vigilante tonight, and I hope that works out. If they are both bad, we'd have 6 or 7 left with 1 scum which would be more favourable. If both are town, I'll be gobsmacked. I could see either being bad without the other, although if I were told only one of them is bad I would lean Wilgy over zebra.

All things considered, I lean ika as third, although it is by such a small margin over others. I don't deeply suspect ika. I think ika has raised good points (like his point on sig, which I did think about, but in the end it simply didn't convince me sig was bad). But, there have been some challenges put to ika that I don't think he has handled so well... like, for instance, why he would take silverwolf's perspective on MP over other people who have actually played with MP. I think silverwolf has already proven to be an insightful player and I completely understand trusting her reads (I somewhat do already) - but there is still an extent to which listening to and taking on board those who know better is what someone would do. Ultimately, ika third over someone like scotty is also probably just as much about 'who would I feel ok being with at lylo'
This is good stuff. Thanks for elaborating. I'll be sure to give you mine once I'm done with these analyses too, if you want, though if I were to say right now what my preferences are they'd look pretty similar.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is my Day 4 Rainbow list.

Soneji
MovingPictures07

Golden
ika
Scotty

sig
a2thezebra
DrWilgy


The colors indicate moderate town, neutral/null, moderate scum, strong scum.


Based on my last rainbow list, very little has changed. Zebra dropped from neutral to strong scum read, but it is surprisingly static otherwise. Oh well.
Talk to me about your Soneji, ika, and zebra reads.

Would you rather lynch zebra or Wilgy? Or, stated otherwise, are your reads listed preferentially within groups or not?
Hmm, Soneji I have as strong town because I've liked what he brought to the table so far. For example on Day 1, he didn't join the thread until very late in the day phase, but he came in swinging against sig. I also like what Epignosis said on Day 1 here, and I think it's far more likely that sig is the one.

As for ika, I haven't paid much attention to him. I should change that. I don't really care that he said he would kill Silverwolf if he was scum. That is exactly the sort of thing I would say regardless of my alignment.

And zebra, I really really dislike the hammer vote yesterday. In addition to that, she's been flinging a lot of poo around the thread.

I would lynch Wilgy first, but I'd be fine lynching either. I do think that mafia has not been paying as much attention to the thread as I would have expected, based on the nightkill choices. If you or Golden were mafia, I think we would have seen at least one power role for the civilians dead by now.
Yeah, inevitably it's WIFOM, but in my view the mafia clearly aren't power role hunting. Which is silly IMO.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:06 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is my Day 4 Rainbow list.

Soneji
MovingPictures07

Golden
ika
Scotty

sig
a2thezebra
DrWilgy


The colors indicate moderate town, neutral/null, moderate scum, strong scum.


Based on my last rainbow list, very little has changed. Zebra dropped from neutral to strong scum read, but it is surprisingly static otherwise. Oh well.
Talk to me about your Soneji, ika, and zebra reads.

Would you rather lynch zebra or Wilgy? Or, stated otherwise, are your reads listed preferentially within groups or not?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Good to know, thanks.

I'll get to more analyses here soon enough, but my brain is still recovering from the Golden one.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:56 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

MM, do you have a rainbow for me? :grin:
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:52 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Wait MM, why the hell is your P-Score 1? :haha:
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Well, that was a doozy. Better go back to work, but I'll be back this evening to continue these interaction analyses.

If it wasn't clear, I really want input regarding them, and I want all of us conversing with each other in an active fashion to solve this game. There hasn't been enough of it. We could be heading towards a LYLO situation hereafter if we mislynch today, so let's figure this game out.
With respect to your ISO of Golden, MP. What if DrWilgy comes back scum? I believe one of your main points against Golden was his pushing of lynching DrWilgy on Day 2 when IAWY was lynched instead.
Sup, Marmot?

That's a good question. GTH I'd say a scum Wilgy flip makes Golden look better and a town Wilgy flip makes Golden look... maybe a bit worse?

What do you think?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Mafia lonely, that is. Not actually lonely.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

I'm lonely and procrastinating like crazy. Someone come in here and talk to me.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:36 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden, who are the top 3 players you'd like to lynch today and why? I know you've talked about this to some degree already, but I think it's worth discussing nonetheless.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:06 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

I'm getting close to 600 posts in this game. What the hell is wrong with me?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:06 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

ika wrote:
Golden wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:In fact... UNVOTE

Just so no one comes in here and hammers this thing. I still support a DrWilgy lynch, but I'd like to gather more information.
I think this is wise. No reason not to use our time up.

I nearly swapped my vote to zebra for the same reason. But in the end I'm confident with you and me on there that if the baddies wanted to put the hammer down on Wilgy, they could have by now.
Fun fact: back when I used to play more I would hammer all the time not caring. I was considering it persoanlly
:suspish:

Do you suspect Wilgy or were you just going to hammer for shits and giggles?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:59 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:In fact... UNVOTE

Just so no one comes in here and hammers this thing. I still support a DrWilgy lynch, but I'd like to gather more information.
I think this is wise. No reason not to use our time up.

I nearly swapped my vote to zebra for the same reason. But in the end I'm confident with you and me on there that if the baddies wanted to put the hammer down on Wilgy, they could have by now.
Yeah, I thought of that too and almost kept my vote registered on Wilgy anyway, but better safe than sorry. If this day period gets hammered, I will be livid.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

In fact... UNVOTE

Just so no one comes in here and hammers this thing. I still support a DrWilgy lynch, but I'd like to gather more information.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

FYI I'll resume analyses later tonight; I'm multitasking article reviews at the moment.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

I'd like to hear from Soneji specifically, especially with regards to a detailed reads list if possible. I need to get in his head.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:49 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

a2thezebra wrote:Oh good griief Golden, any look at evidence will demonstrate to you that your interpretation of what happened is utter fantasy. The reality of the events that occurred are as follows:
......?!!?!?!
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:49 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Golden wrote:Well, MP, a bad wilgy flip would probably help with a large percentage of your concerns around my interactions with IAWY, too.

I think there is one thing in your analysis I slightly disagree with, though, is that on day one I voted IAWY in response to silverwolf expressing a strong desire to do so.

As you'll see, that was a response to me specifically asking her if she was willing to vote that way, and that was because I was looking for common ground - I wanted to vote IAWY. And, in fact, the reason I was looking for common ground was to get votes off MP, because I didn't want to shift my vote and leave MP vulnerable, as I read him town.

Quote below for evidence.
Spoiler: show
Silverwolf wrote:
Golden wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:I really don't care who we lynch today because my strong townreads are not under consideration.
Who are your strong townreads?

How do you feel about IAWY at this point? Is that still a viable vote for you?
Dyslexicon, Frog, Zexy, sloonei and zebra are light townreads

IAWY I would vote for and lynch in a heartbeat
It would provide some clarification, yeah, but nothing's for sure.

I appreciate your dissent and subsequent clarification. I don't necessarily disagree; I was fishing for any evidence that you could be IAWY's teammate, so such analyses aren't exactly unbiased by nature.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:46 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

a2thezebra wrote:Let's hammer DrWilgy right now!
How about no?
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:46 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

a2thezebra wrote:The more I think about it...the more...I like...it...

VOTE DRWILGY
I do remember one thing.

It took hours and hours but...

By the time I was done with it,

I was so involved.

I didn't know what to think.

(this describes my Golden/IAWY interaction analysis)
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:44 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Scotty wrote: hey Mp I'll give thoughts on all 3 at some point, but it won't be today, I'm afraid. I have too little time. But I also advise not talking ourselves out of things
No worries! I understand how RL is (and I'm ignoring it largely today). Whenever you can, your input is appreciated. :beer:
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Well, that was a doozy. Better go back to work, but I'll be back this evening to continue these interaction analyses.

If it wasn't clear, I really want input regarding them, and I want all of us conversing with each other in an active fashion to solve this game. There hasn't been enough of it. We could be heading towards a LYLO situation hereafter if we mislynch today, so let's figure this game out.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

GOLDEN / INAWORDYES
Day 1
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:So basically I have Golden and Inawordyes as possible scum so far.
I know you have posted about why you find IAWY scummy, but any chance you could give a brief summary or specify the one thing that most pings you? I find as of now I have very little read of him or memory of his contributions.
Golden's first post regarding IAWY is a question to Silverwolf asking her to explain her mafia read of him.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:Rainbow time - decided to treat it like gth and have no null reads.

Medium Town

Marco
Sloonei
Zexy


Mild Town

Frog
MovingPictures07
Silverwolf
Dyslexicon
Long Con
sig


Mild Bad

ika
Inawordyes
Psittaciform
Soneji
Metalmarsh89


Moderate Bad

a2thezebra
DrWilgy
Golden's first rainbow list has Inawordyes in the "Mild Bad" category, with 4 others, and not as bad as zebra or Wilgy.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Holy shit guys, IAWY is scummier than I expected. I'm feeling at least a moderate mafia read here. Stay tuned.
We also have some 'quiet IAWY is scum meta' posts from someone who knows him.

It's almost silly to get to this point and it be about who I'm 'willing' to lynch - but frankly, I'm willing to lynch anyone on the 'scum' side of my rainbow.
In response to my pre-ISO declaration that IAWY looks bad, Golden notes Frog's "quiet IAWY is scum meta" posts. He then notes that he'd be willing to vote for anyone on the "scum" side of his rainbow.

These first few posts could be Golden setting up a bus opportunity in anticipation of IAWY receiving serious heat, if he is IAWY's teammate.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:IAWY I would vote for and lynch in a heartbeat
Well, I'd join you. Shall we?
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:VOTE INAWORDYES

That will do for now.
After Silverwolf expresses a strong desire to lynch IAWY, Golden joins in and votes for him. He could have felt inclined to hop on his teammate due to Silver's pressure on him.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I really hope you all will reconsider who you will lynch today.
Are you talking about IAWY or yourself?
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I also noticed in my pop ins that ika and Silverwolf have followed each other all over the board in votes. Is that a correct assessment?
They definitely followed each other on to me, and MP, and IAWY.
These two posts mention IAWY, but that's about it. I included them anyway.

Note that Golden switches his vote from IAWY to Frog during EoD d1.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:If IAWY flips scum, wouldn't look good for Golden.
I don't really care how it would look. But, no matter what Frog flips, IAWY will still be at the top of my conversation on day 2.
This is at the very end of Day 1, in response to Marco saying Golden would look bad if IAWY flipped scum.

I like this post; it read sincere to me then and it does now. But, if Golden is mafia and IAWY is a teammate, then his EoD behavior is entirely reasonable. I'd say this is all potentially teammate compatible.


Day 2
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:VOTE INAWORDYES

That's just a starting point before catching up.
In his first post on d2, Golden votes IAWY as a starting point.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Inawordyes wrote:
Golden wrote:VOTE INAWORDYES

That's just a starting point before catching up.
Fair enough, there's not much to catch up on though because with Frog gone we've reached standard levels of posting haha. :p Where are you at in your catching up? If you have caught up, do you intend on keeping this vote, or would it better be served elsewhere after seeing how I've responded?
End of day, but I can say already my vote is unlikely to stay there, because I have a hunch I'm working on.
Golden says his vote is unlikely to stay on IAWY because of a hunch. This could be a way for a mafia Golden to try to sway the d2 lynch away from his teammate, despite the close call on d1.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:New rainbow

Strong town

Marco
Zexy
MovingPictures07


Moderate town

a2thezebra
sig


Slight town

Dyslexicon
ika


Slight scum

DrWilgy
Inawordyes
Metalmarsh89
Psittaciform
Soneji


Moderate scum

Matt
A new rainbow list puts IAWY in slight scum, but with 4 other players (Wilgy, MM, Psi, Soneji) and above a moderate scum in Matt.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Golden wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Hopefully Golden this makes you feel more comfortable. ;)
I'd feel most comfortable if I understood your current read on me, and why.
I was actually thinking that you and Sloonei were on a team together, which is why you didn't vote for him yesterday, but did today. You had time to discuss things overnight, and plan out a bus attempt today.

But with Matt replacing in, that makes the tin-foil moot. Sloonei wouldn't replace out if he was planning on being bussed. That doesn't fit. I still find Sloonei suspicious and would like to hear from Matt sooner than later. As for you, I would list you as slight mafia still.
Besides this, as I've made the point before... I don't 'plan' busses. Ever. There is no value in it. Bussing is a phenomenon that MUST feel natural out of your reads. If it feels like you've suddenly shifted direction, it's pointless. If I'm going to bus, it's my call alone and I make it in the moment... and if I have day time talk, I'll say sorry to my teammate, but I'll do what I have to do.

I never truly considered a sloonei vote yesterday. But I'll admit, after he switched from Frog to IAWY, I very nearly switched my vote to you. That was the moment where I started tinfoiling the pair of you as teammates. It looked to me a little like getting civ cred AND helping make sure a teammate didn't go home all in one. And it's not as though your case on sloonei ever amounted to any danger for him, because so many people were town reading him.

The flaw in this tinfoil read is - you are vibing town to me. It's why I feel much more strongly about sloonei than I do about you.
This post isn't really about IAWY, but "IAWY" is mentioned in it, so I'm including it anyway, since it provides more of Golden's train of thought regarding his d1 vote.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:I like Dizzy's concept of IAWY being bussed by ika.

Would also work with sloonei being bad, if sloonei perceived a bus to be a particularly strong tactic.

I can see how this would be an informative lynch choice even if it isn't my current preference.
Here Golden expresses agreement with Dizzy's theory that ika bussed IAWY, and that such a concept is compatible with Sloonei being bad (who he was most highly mafia reading at the time).

Note the yellow. This could be a way for a mafia Golden to justify attention on non-IAWY candidates, but still maintain a bussing stance on his teammate.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Inawordyes wrote:
Golden wrote:Here's the thing, zebra. Full seriousness.

I am town, but I'd sooner mislynch you and leave my vote on you than be lynched myself. I'm playing this game for practice for champs. I don't actually care if you go down. I don't actually WHO goes down. I'm going to do my best to try to solve the game and thats all there is to it.

I'll do what I have to do to survive in this game. If that means lynching the people who think I'm bad, even if they are town, then so be it. Means I get longer to practice.

I don't have any teammates to come to my rescue and help. If I do get lynched today, I'll call it a failed endeavour. Certainly, I'll give up, because I don't have time for this shit. I'm playing because JJJ was nice enough to give me a chance to practice, even though I really don't have time for it.
If you don't care about the game itself and just see it as practice, then you're not practicing that well because you're missing a fundamental part of the experience, which is that you have to care at least a little. Surviving to a new day means nothing if you don't care about who's surviving with you, you can't solve the game if you're disinterested in haphazardly taking down goodies in your wake.

Not everybody you think is Mafia is mafia, nor is everybody you think is Town town. If you haphazardly lynch whoever pings your radar without concern for whether they're goodies at the end of it, then you're not learning anything that will help you in the MU games, and from my own experience, I can tell you that you will be called to account for it.

That's my 2¢.
I don't know how you make that cents symbol.

Fair point.
This is Golden's first direct interaction with IAWY, so it's notable, especially since it's only (1) an inquiry regarding the cents symbol and (2) expressing acknowledgement that IAWY made a good point with respect to Golden's attitude towards lynching zebra even if he was town reading her.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:But suspecting someone all phase and jumping off from them for town cred seems like a completely counter-active move. That would only serve to foster more suspicion on you.
If that is true, where are all the sloonei votes? Why am I the only person coming out and expressing suspicion of it? The only others views on it have been as a result of agreeing or disagreeing with my own.

Frog was town, and no-one but me is pointing at sloonei for jumping off a town wagon at all.

What if IAWY came back bad... would make sloonei look particularly good, yeah?

The Sloonei I'm used to (like my buddy in Turf Wars) might bounce his votes around, but he'd always end up on someone he felt was scum... not just move away from someone who 'might add value'.

It just doesn't feel right to me at all.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:I didn't quite understand the underlined bit.

Anyway, I'm going to stop speaking for Sloonei as I feel like I'm getting cornered (not by you or anyone, by myself) into defending him. And he was actually suspicious to me until he sort of gave up on the game.
He flipped from Frog to IAWY. If IAWY then flipped scum, sloonei would look better for it.

I (personally) don't think you are speaking for sloonei so much as expressing why you suspect me. I won't push you into the same boat I was pushed in yesterday. These things ARE different.
More speculation that an IAWY flip would incriminate Sloonei.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Inawordyes wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Would you be able to rank your scum reads somehow?

What did you think of my Soneji ISO earlier?
I could, eventually. But I still feel I want to hear more from most of them (since they are all/most pretty quiet). It still feels unsolved to me in a way, if that makes sense. But IAWY is my prefered lynch, and my strongest suspicion.

I was so tired when I read the Soneji-ISO I don't really remember. Sorry. I do appreciate you putting in the work, and I will surely get back to it. Apart from that I've looked into his ISO on my own today to check up on things. I'm not convinced by him, he's a null I'm suspicious of. He could very well be teamed with IAWY if he is indeed scum. I don't feel his push on Sig is very good. Firstly because I feel Sig is a player that would be easy to push on (easy target, for various reasons), and two because the argument doesn't seem all that strong to me and gets a bit repetative. I don't think it makes that much sense for scum!Sig to push on Soneji of all people if Sig is scum. That being said, I don't think it's impossible for Soneji to be town doing all this either. So it's inconclusive atm.
No worries, that's understandable. I feel like we're mind melding the most this phase, so I'm with you on IAWY. It would take some real town spark from IAWY to get me to move that vote, because I have not liked his recent posts (though he seems like a nice fellow). :beer:

Not a problem, let me know what you think when you get to it. Yeah, sig is an easy mislynch (or lynch in general), so I think he's particularly difficult to read. I need to figure him out myself.

Thanks for the elaboration.
Once you read me as Mafia you stop looking at me as town, so commenting that you don't like my recent posts is meaningless except as a tool to convince others to look at me the same way, which is a scummy tactic, or possibly a cop tactic but I don't think you would've been this subtle about a redcheck on me if that was a possibility.
:faint:
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Inawordyes wrote:
Golden wrote:
Inawordyes wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Would you be able to rank your scum reads somehow?

What did you think of my Soneji ISO earlier?
I could, eventually. But I still feel I want to hear more from most of them (since they are all/most pretty quiet). It still feels unsolved to me in a way, if that makes sense. But IAWY is my prefered lynch, and my strongest suspicion.

I was so tired when I read the Soneji-ISO I don't really remember. Sorry. I do appreciate you putting in the work, and I will surely get back to it. Apart from that I've looked into his ISO on my own today to check up on things. I'm not convinced by him, he's a null I'm suspicious of. He could very well be teamed with IAWY if he is indeed scum. I don't feel his push on Sig is very good. Firstly because I feel Sig is a player that would be easy to push on (easy target, for various reasons), and two because the argument doesn't seem all that strong to me and gets a bit repetative. I don't think it makes that much sense for scum!Sig to push on Soneji of all people if Sig is scum. That being said, I don't think it's impossible for Soneji to be town doing all this either. So it's inconclusive atm.
No worries, that's understandable. I feel like we're mind melding the most this phase, so I'm with you on IAWY. It would take some real town spark from IAWY to get me to move that vote, because I have not liked his recent posts (though he seems like a nice fellow). :beer:

Not a problem, let me know what you think when you get to it. Yeah, sig is an easy mislynch (or lynch in general), so I think he's particularly difficult to read. I need to figure him out myself.

Thanks for the elaboration.
Once you read me as Mafia you stop looking at me as town, so commenting that you don't like my recent posts is meaningless except as a tool to convince others to look at me the same way, which is a scummy tactic, or possibly a cop tactic but I don't think you would've been this subtle about a redcheck on me if that was a possibility.
:faint:
Hope, that was not a slip up, don't you dare read it as such.
The whole last part of the sentence just baffles me completely.
Golden finds IAWY's "cop check" statement baffling, but he doesn't say anything specific re: alignment, so this could be a mafia Golden's attempt to see how heated suspicion surrounding IAWY gets before committing to a hard thread reaction. I'm not sure I'd believe a mafia Golden would do that at all, but there's the angle at least.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:
Soneji wrote:
Marco wrote:I also feel like most of the people on the Frog wagon (or those retroactively calling him scummy this phase) misrepresented him, intentionally or otherwise. This is in terms of his "inactive hunting" push. Or maybe I'm just sore you guys CFD'd one of the most active and experienced players (and one of my biggest town reads) to save two fairly inactive players (both in my scum reads).
He did inactive hunt though, to the point of actively discouraging discussion on basically anyone but them.
I think you missed out on a lot of context because you basically skimmed the whole thread in less than a couple hours. Moot point now, since Frog is already dead. I'm just finding it odd that I was the only person actually understanding him when I was the one opposing him for half of Day 1.
I disagree. I felt him very understandable, and said so, in that first half of day 1. I did not agree with his perspective, but I felt it was town.

Frog's first half of day one was great.
What about the second half put you off about him? Did you think the drunk bit was an act? I felt I could understand his reluctance to "hunt". It felt to me like he was losing patience in the dayphase and just wanted to see some flips before spending more time on reading people. 72 hours is quite long. Most of us are used to 24 hour phases. Especially since a large part of Day 1 is RVS.
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:I'll admit that even I was very curious about the Frog flip near the EOD. I could've switched to IAWY myself to save Frog, after all, but the general confusion of the rapid changing votes and self-doubt led me to stay on MM.
I feel like this is also part of why I stayed on Frog in the end. I'd convinced myself that I needed to understand the enigma. I also felt (at the time) that it would give us information. Well, I feel it would have given us a lot if he flipped scum.

But in hindsight, vanilla really didn't give us info at all.
Don't you think MM or IAWY lynches would've given us more information, regardless of what they flipped?
1) I did feel like it was an 'act' (not the being drunk thing, but just his whole demeanour). I have expressed this before in different ways, but I'll do my best in expressing it in a new way. I felt like he was trying to dominate the town direction and push it in the direction he wanted, and to me it felt wifom (like, does he want to be town leader, or does he want us to think thats what he wants), and he pushed his particular gambits in a very dismissive way (I'm right, you're wrong) and talked about how no-one would have the balls to nk him, and I began to feel as though the whole thing was one big pile of wifom with the deliberate goal of making himself too much of an enigma to be touched. I've seen scum do things like that and run to the end too often. In fact, I came out the other side feeling like I was still right about the whole thing being an act - and maybe even why he was doing it - just wrong about the fact he was scum.

2) I find it difficult to judge how much info we'd have gotten (or get now) out of a town flip from IAWY or MM.
The IAWY-specific content is in 2) here. He elaborates in the following quote:
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:
Golden wrote:1) I did feel like it was an 'act' (not the being drunk thing, but just his whole demeanour). I have expressed this before in different ways, but I'll do my best in expressing it in a new way. I felt like he was trying to dominate the town direction and push it in the direction he wanted, and to me it felt wifom (like, does he want to be town leader, or does he want us to think thats what he wants), and he pushed his particular gambits in a very dismissive way (I'm right, you're wrong) and talked about how no-one would have the balls to nk him, and I began to feel as though the whole thing was one big pile of wifom with the deliberate goal of making himself too much of an enigma to be touched. I've seen scum do things like that and run to the end too often. In fact, I came out the other side feeling like I was still right about the whole thing being an act - and maybe even why he was doing it - just wrong about the fact he was scum.

2) I find it difficult to judge how much info we'd have gotten (or get now) out of a town flip from IAWY or MM.
1. Yes, he was meta-gaming throughout the latter half. In my experience, it's best to not lynch such players Day 1. This is why I can understand Sloonei taking his vote off Frog. Regardless of Frog's alignment, it was guaranteed that he'd interact with people a lot and that would give us a lot of reads.

2. Well, MM and MP were the lynch candidates. MM tried to start a wagon on Sloonei but people moved on to IAWY instead. An IAWY flip would give us info on the voters who switched to him and insight into Sloonei's and MP's alignment. MM was a divisive read for a lot of people and he had his own leads. His death would've clarified quite a bit too. What info did we get from the Frog flip?
On 2 - explain to me what info we get from voters who 'switched to him' and how we get into the alignments of MM and MP if IAWY was town, in a way that we would not have gotten exactly the same from people who moved away from MM and IAWY to Frog, and the alignments of MM and IAWY? I can't see how these two things are different? Expressly tell me what kind of info we would have gotten, and why, from a town IAWY flip and why we do not have analagous information from a Frog flip. I don't understand this at all.

From my perspective, the reason we don't have data from a frog town flip is primarily because we have no scum flips to try and factor in what it means. It may give us information later. But similarly, an IAWY town flip feels like it would be exactly the same to me... I can't fathom what useful information would have come from it.
Golden justifies that a town Frog flip is equally meaningful to a town IAWY flip, and that this has relevance to his EoD d1 behavior amid some criticism from Marco for his switch from IAWY to Frog.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Inawordyes wrote:Do the moment, I guess I'll start getting some info from mynp nulls reads. Since Gikden is here, may as wel, start with him!

VOTE GOLDEN

Heyo Golden! I fully intend to change my vote to someone else, but right now I have you in my larger-than-it-should-be list of null reads, so since you're here right I'd like to have some sort of interaction. Anything you can tell me about your reads and specifically some thoughts on myself, Soneji (who is currently my only Mafia read) and MP (who seems to be a bit shady)?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MP - last time I remember playing with him where he was scum, I nailed on him on day one. Then, I died shortly afterwards and didn't get to lynch him until I got a rezz several days later, by chance, and by that point he'd done a major AtE gambit and I'd begun to doubt my read. But really, I think I am decent at reading MP. He does change things up a bit, but I think I'm much more likely to scum read his town game than town read his scum game. But he has mostly been town recently, hasn't had many scum games.

MP's cycle of frustration and apology, and in fact almost everything about MP, reeks of his town game to me. If he is scum, he has me deeply fooled and I'll congratulate him for playing a very strong scum game. The reasons I've seen for suspecting him have all been things standard to MP's town meta. He is a unique player and I like to wittingly call him 'the suicidal moron' because, when town, he is very good at doing something to make himself look incredibly scummy and end up being lynched for it. Of the people whose meta I know decently well, MP is the only one who I feel very firmly about in terms of their likelihood to be town.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

You - I need to get a better grip on you. I feel like you are very likable and feel like you fit here. You have a very affable personality, in fact the kind of personality that makes me naturally want to town read you. I feel the need to beware of this. I do feel guilty often for lynching people who are new here (regardless of their affiliation) because I want people to feel welcome and stay. Especially nice people. So, I'm trying not to take this into account.

I do think others have raised good points for why you could be bad. I also think there is merit to the idea that, absent of having any communication on day one, if you were a member of mafia I could see why your teammates may have felt comfortable bussing you if they thought you weren't actually going to show up.

In some ways, you feel like a good lynch right now through little fault of your own (other than your relative absence). It does feel like lynching you could create a lot more interesting context to both day one and day two. I am listening to what you have to say, but I'd like to get a much more thorough sense of how you are feeling. As you yourself have said, you have far too many null reads right now for me to have any confidence in you. But, then, you are well behind. I hope you catch up.

My big problem in terms of reading you is... I just don't know you. That makes you hard to read.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I don't know why Soneji wasn't around for a while - has he answered this? I have found so far that soneji has a unique angle on events and seems to be endeavouring to contribute. I can't put him above 'slight scum' on my radar yet primarily because he doesn't have enough content yet, and what there has been is quite dense so I don't feel like I've developed a strong sense of where he stands.

However, on balance, the content that soneji has provided has good feelz and thinking solely about how he has approached the game when apparently starting from a long way behind, it does make me feel a little good about him.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Right back at you. How do you feel about Soneji, Marco and myself? Even if its null, what impressions have led you to null?
This is a direct interaction with IAWY, an instance too rare due to IAWY's spotty d1 activity. In it, Golden responds to a "prodding" vote by IAWY (which he also cast against DrWilgy).

This content is very important because it is a detailed elaboration of Golden's IAWY read. There's a lot of potential waffliness in here that could be contributed to them being teammates. What do you folks think of this post?
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:I especially am puzzled by how Golden seems to avoid IAWY and not really giving a hard stance on him. It weirds me out a bit, but overall I think Golden is more likely town.
I don't know quite how this is the feeling you get, perhaps I've been a bit too fair in giving my hesitations, but let me clear this up.

My hard stance on IAWY is scum. I helped start the wagon on IAWY yesterday, without me that wouldn't have been a viable lynch option any more than Frog was, and at this point in time IAWY is one place where I feel my vote could realistically end up.

I do have hesitations in this read. I don't know IAWY, for one.
In response to an observation by Dizzy that Golden seems hesitant to act on his mafia read of IAWY, Golden elaborates here. This is another important post, since it gives us further insight into Golden's thought process regarding IAWY.

Is it a townie genuinely doubting his read for specific reasons or a teammate trending the soft bus line? You tell me.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Inawordyes wrote:and I ask the vice-versa to you Golden, what are your current thoughts on Marco?
I still read Marco as pretty solidly town. I was irked by statements that I felt suggested one play style is preferable to another, but ultimately (especially after a sleep) see it as NAI, so I'm sticking with my read from before then.
Another direct interaction with IAWY, this time in response to IAWY's request for a Marco read. That's about it though.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:Why is Golden on the same wagon as IAWY who he apparently suspects?
IAWY's votes hardly seem to be indicative of who he thinks is actually bad. He is voting for his null reads to get them to talk. Voting for a teammate within that context would not only be normal, but if scum practically mandatory.
This is a brilliant statement if Golden is IAWY's teammate, because it explains exactly what IAWY did as scum, voting for his teammate Golden to prod him to "talk", even though Golden had already been talking plenty.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:I'd be pretty happy with IAWY or Wilgy. Either will do me fine. Would be great to see it come down to the two of them.
Golden says his sentiment is that he'd be "pretty happy" with either an IAWY or DrWilgy lynch.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:VOTE INAWORDYES

Call it a pre-emptive strike against developing things in the thread that suggest taking IAWY out of the lynch mix.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Matt wrote:Before a third person connects me and IAWY, I'd just like to say...

Nice to meet you, IAWY. Sorry you're about to get lynched apparently, while Wilgy is free to roam the town while killing us in our sleep :(
I'm still considering a Wilgy lynch. My flip was to stop IAWY from vanishing from the lynch pool entirely, as it sounded like some people were angling for that.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:VOTE DRWILGY
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:Oh look, a 3 way tie!

VOTE GOLDEN
In that case

VOTE INAWORDYES

I don't want a tie THAT much.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:Oops, I take make that last vote

VOTE DRWILGY

Didn't realise the tie was already broken.
In the first post, Golden casts a vote for IAWY once he felt the momentum against him to be fading.

Then, Golden states clearly that he's still considering a Wilgy lynch, emphasizing that his flip to IAWY was to keep the IAWY momentum from vanishing entirely.

He votes for Wilgy, then votes IAWY, then votes Wilgy again. Flip flop!! :omg:
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:If Wilgy is lynched and flips town, what leads are we looking at? I feel like his flip will give us the least information.
You seem focussed very much on the information we get 'if someone flips town'.

Yesterday, it was about it being three vs two.

This time, if its a two way battle between IAWY and Wilgy and the loser flips town, why would we get less information from Wilgy's townflip than IAWY's townflip?
This is in response to Marco regarding "information" lynch flips; Golden consistently argues that the thread won't get less information if Wilgy flips town than if IAWY does.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:It hasn't escaped my attention that, as a rule, I trust the people on the IAWY wagon a lot more than I trust the ones on the Wilgy wagon :ponder:
Golden notes that he trusts the players on the IAWY wagon more than those on the Wilgy wagon.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:Regardless, why not just answer the question? You might convince me to vote for him.
I mean, I think your point that we don't get a lot from Wilgy if he flips town is completely fair and true. I can't think of anything. I just don't know that we get a lot from IAWY flipping town either.

I just don't know that we will get much from ANY town flips until we have at least one scum flip.

I wasn't really trying to convince you to vote Wilgy - I'm very comfortable knowing you are on the IAWY train.
Other players could contest what Golden is saying here, arguing that Golden was indeed trying to convince folks to vote Wilgy on the one hand, while consistently maintaining and verbalizing an open mind regarding his teammate, IAWY on the other. What do you all think?
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Matt wrote:
Inawordyes wrote:....
Are you bad?

Linki - Golden, MP, you thinkin' up reasons before IAWY's town flip on why you voted him? "Well, there were more trustworthy people on the IAWY wagon soooo...."
Sure, why not. It's not like I was one of the initiators of the IAWY bandwagon on day one or anything... :p

In all seriousness, though, I don't think I've ever blamed anyone else for why my vote is at the end of the day and nothing should ever be read as me excusing my vote on the basis of just 'trusting someone else'.
This post is the beginning of a trend wherein Golden emphasizes being the player to initiate the IAWY bandwagon on Day 1. If he is IAWY's teammate, it's a great defense to be able to have.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:
Golden wrote:
Marco wrote:Regardless, why not just answer the question? You might convince me to vote for him.
I mean, I think your point that we don't get a lot from Wilgy if he flips town is completely fair and true. I can't think of anything. I just don't know that we get a lot from IAWY flipping town either.

I just don't know that we will get much from ANY town flips until we have at least one scum flip.

I wasn't really trying to convince you to vote Wilgy - I'm very comfortable knowing you are on the IAWY train.
First, IAWY gives more info just going by numbers. Then you have the larger number of people with reads on IAWY. Then you have the tie from yesterday to look at. And the semi CFD. Is it just me who thinks IAWY unquestionably has more info attached to him?

Though you're right about town flips not giving us much, that doesn't mean we get no info from them.
I think all of this is correct. I'd sign off on it.
After Marco responded to Golden's point re: information lynches (specifically with respect to IAWY and Wilgy), Marco responded again, and Golden steps back a bit from his previous hard stance, noting that he agrees with Marco's assertions. Not sure this indicates anything though with respect to whether IAWY is a teammate of Golden, but eh, I included it anyway.
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:VOTE INAWORDYES

PS, if IAWY scum, I think we are in a world with a town cop. That comment he made still majorly pings me. Like he was pre-emptively thinking through a defence against a red peek.
Golden switches his vote back to IAWY and notes that he thinks if IAWY is scum that a cop exists in the setup.

More notably, Golden says the comment regarding the red peek / cop that IAWY made still majorly pings him. Whether Golden expressed a "major ping" previously is up to anyone's interpretation. What do you folks think?
Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:Hey, IAWY

Assuming you are lynched, and no matter what your alignment.

Your positive outlook on the game is fun. I hope you stick around here :nicenod:
Lastly, Golden says IAWY's positive outlook on the game is fun and hopes he sticks around. This doesn't have any relevance to Golden's alignment, but it's a good ending post. :beer:

Phew! That was a lot. Now onto the summary and conclusion.



Summary

- Golden interacted directly with IAWY only a few times, but he had expressed opinions of him all throughout most of d1 and all of d2. His interactions with IAWY are not at all aggressive.

- Golden did not show a specific willingness to vote for IAWY until after Silverwolf had done so.

- Golden's suspicion of IAWY during d1 was largely due to IAWY's lack of activity. He had voted for IAWY d1, but then switched to Frog during an incredibly heated d1. Combined with Golden's second post on d2 where he said his vote is unlikely to stay IAWY, this could have been a calculated move by a mafia Golden to soft bus his teammate, keep him alive in the eleventh hour, and try to keep attention away from him during d2, despite all the while seeming focused on him and upholding the fake bus stance. It would all be a very accomplished act.

- Although Golden expresses doubt throughout d2 and flip flops his vote constantly between IAWY and Wilgy, he ends d2 by voting on the IAWY wagon which is fully established within the last few hours of d2 EoD.

- Until the end of d2, Golden holds firm that an IAWY lynch, although he suspects him, wouldn't be any particularly more informative than a Wilgy lynch, and he often equates the two during d1 and d2 in terms of his voting preference. Note that Wilgy is still alive today on d4, even though Golden has had a continued suspicion of him and pushed for his lynch.

- Notably, there are a few posts made by Golden that would exactly explain IAWY and Golden's behavior as teammates.


Conclusion

Well, this is a really tough case. Golden's behavior is teammate compatible, for sure, though it'd be an excellent (but largely soft) bussing job. I'm not sure I'm sold that it's teammate indicative, because it would require an incredibly consistent and conscious effort by Golden to bus his teammate, yet display signs that he was seriously doubting his suspicion in an organic fashion, so I won't say that it is. If Golden is IAWY's teammate, his behavior was very calculated throughout and top-notch.

I want input on this pronto from everyone. Regardless of whether Golden is town or mafia, he could be the single player that breaks the game for town, in large part due to his behavior regarding IAWY.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Almost done with this Golden/IAWY analysis. You all better read it.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

DrWilgy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Scotty could be mafia; nonetheless, I think DrWilgy is a better bet, especially since Scotty has been willing to engage in active hunting and conversation.
Did Scotty dip though?

I don't like his response to me really.

@Scotty, why did you strike for angles other than the one I found suspicious?

Zebra being fishy didn't have anything to do with my suspicion, nor did Pablo Picasso being AFK. Why bring them up unless you don't want to argue my observation? Was I right? Also really odd that you felt strongly about Sig, but then swapped to me for a reason you aren't fully informed about... Why?
I will admit this is the most convincing substance that you've brought to the game, so I'm considering it.
by Tangrowth
Sat Apr 23, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]
Replies: 3675
Views: 73400

Re: Mafia Championship Scrimmage

Picking up Golden interaction now. Hope to have it ready soon. Lots of posts.

Return to “Mafia Championship Scrimmage [END]”